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The problem here isn't the study---of course we should study possible vaccine side effects. The problem is the massive leaps of logic being made by people who h

The problem here isn't the study---of course we should study possible vaccine side effects. The problem is the massive leaps of logic being made by people who have (quite wrongly, based on available evidence) become convinced that the vaccines are a greater threat to healthy people than the virus is. As unlikely as it is that an otherwise healthy young person will die from covid, it is even less likely that they'll die from a vaccine side effect. That's just a statistical fact at this point, we have millions of both covid cases and vaccinations to back that up. This study looked at 25 cases of unexpected death in people aged 46-75 and found 5 cases of myocarditis. Without any control group to compare to, there is literally nothing that can be drawn from this study about the risk presented by the vaccine, and the authors admit as much: "The nature of our autopsy study necessitates that the data are descriptive in quality and does not allow any epidemiological conclusions in terms of incidence or risk estimation."

addingadimensio 4y ago
- addingadimensio 4y ago
  - dang 4y ago
    We've banned this account for using HN primarily for ideological battle. You can't do that here, and yes that rule holds regardless of which ideology you're battling for or against. It's not what this site is for, and destroys what it is for. Please don't create accounts to break HN's rules with. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
tempsy 4y ago
Ok, so if you believe your chance of dying of covid is improbably small due to age and overall health, why is it necessary to be vaccinated even if there's only a small chance of side effects? Rare is not zero. I don't even take OTC pain killers like advil unless I absolutely feel like I have to.
- vannevar 4y ago
  Because a) the risk from covid, while small, is still greater than the risk from the vaccines and b) unvaccinated people are more likely to be infected and become a vector for the virus, infecting other people.
  - dtauzell 4y ago
    Is there any evidence for (b)? My understanding is that you are just as likely to get vaccinated and "shed" the virus for just as long, but are less likely to be severely sick.
    - mtillman 4y ago
      I think you mean "get sick" which is untrue. You are less likely to get sick if vaccinated. You are also less likely to experience severe symptoms if vaccinated. https://health.howstuffworks.com/wellness/preventive-care/vaccine.htm https://health.howstuffworks.com/wellness/preventive-care/va...
    - bryanlarsen 4y ago
      Your understanding is wrong. Vaccinated and unvaccinated people with symptomatic COVID shed at comparable rates, but vaccinated people are less likely to get symptomatic COVID. The difference wanes considerably if your last shot was > 6 months ago, but is still present.
  - bscphil 4y ago
    > unvaccinated people are more likely to be infected and become a vector for the virus, infecting other people. I'd add to this the fact that it was especially true earlier in the pandemic, and at that time COVID was significantly more likely to be fatal. Even if someone rejects the idea of getting a fourth dose of the vaccine (rightly or wrongly), it's possible to think that the first two doses were an entirely reasonable one-time intervention into an ongoing pandemic that saved many thousands of lives.
  - commandlinefan 4y ago
bb88 4y ago
Since the Musk takeover, conspiracy theorists on $8Chan have talked about Grant Wahl dying suddenly because of the "clot shot". Then we find out he died of a ruptured aortic aneurysm. Then people still refuse to believe it because it doesn't fit their narrative they're pushing. And anyone who dies suddenly must have died because of the vaccine. https://twitter.com/DiedSuddenly_/status/1603103342481342465 https://twitter.com/DiedSuddenly_/status/1603103342481342465 This killed John Ritter, George C. Scott, Lucille Ball and Albert Einstein. But somehow the vaccine is to blame for anyone who dies of it now...
- westmeal 4y ago
  People will believe whatever they want to believe, just let them stew.
  - bb88 4y ago
    This works until it leads to politicians asking for grand juries to investigate anyone associated with the vaccine. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/dec/13/ron-desantis-grand-jury-investigation-covid-vaccines-florida https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/dec/13/ron-desantis...
  - phtrivier 4y ago
    Unfortunately, some of them don't stew in silence - and consider anyone who got vaccinated with exactly the same contempt as you do. Which is all fun and games until you have to, you know, _live_ with them in the real world because they're your family and / or loved ones ?
- kennend3 4y ago
  There is also the "Canadian doctors" story the anti-vax group continue to flog yet it has being proven wrong over and over again. https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2022/11/07/why-wont-a-debunked-conspiracy-theory-about-doctors-harmed-by-the-covid-vaccine-go-away.html https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2022/11/07/why-wont-a-de... One of the doctors drowned in a river attempting to save his kids, yet the anti-vax group elect to leverage his tragedy for their narrative.
encryptluks2 4y ago
There is a lot of evidence that the system to report vaccine injuries is largely ignored and people that report issues are ostracized for doing so. It also begs to question how often injuries would go unreported or misreported because of the difficulties of being linked to the actual cause, and many doctors may be unwilling to claim a vaccine caused an injury just due to the stigma around vaccine injuries, especially in regards to COVID-19.
- Daishiman 4y ago
skissane 4y ago
> The problem is the massive leaps of logic being made by people who have (quite wrongly, based on available evidence) become convinced that the vaccines are a greater threat to healthy people than the virus is. In some cases, it may well be true that the vaccine is a greater risk than the virus. For example, in Australia, the official recommendation is that healthy people under 30 not receive a fourth dose of COVID-19 vaccine, since Australian health officials believe the risk from vaccine side effects (such as myocarditis) in that age group outweighs the risk of COVID-19 itself. [0] Furthermore, for healthy people in the 30-49 age group, the official Australian position on fourth doses is "permitted but not recommended", since it is unclear if the risk of COVID-19 is greater than that of the vaccine. This is different from the recommendations made by a number of other countries (US, UK, Canada, Singapore), but it appears Australian health authorities weigh the risk of vaccination side effects versus the risk of COVID-19 differently than they do. [0] https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-you-won-t-get-another-covid-shot-this-year-despite-rising-cases-20221110-p5bx78.html https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-you-won-t-get-another-co...
- wsc981 4y ago
  Denmark doesn’t recommend COVID vaccines anymore to anyone under 50 who is not at risk or work in health sector [0]. > People aged under 50 are generally not at particularly higher risk of becoming severely ill from covid-19. In addition, younger people aged under 50 are well protected against becoming severely ill from covid-19, as a very large number of them have already been vaccinated and have previously been infected with covid-19, and there is consequently good immunity among this part of the population. ——— [0]: https://sst.dk/en/English/Corona-eng/Vaccination-against-covid-19 https://sst.dk/en/English/Corona-eng/Vaccination-against-cov...
  - birken 4y ago
    While I think it is certainly fair to talk about the policies of other countries, I don't think just because another country has a different policy necessarily dictates that policy is better or worse. Additionally, I think it's very easy to see something like "Denmark doesn't recommend the vaccines to anybody under 50" and conflate that it means that Denmark doesn't think vaccines were ever beneficial to people under the age of 50 (which is the leap in logic you often see on anti-vax sites). But that isn't the case. What was good health policy in 2021 is different from good health policy now, because we have way more information about the virus, better and more effective drug to treat it, new variants, etc. Two things can be true at the same time: The vaccines are (on net) incredibly beneficial to people and the population as a whole, and yet at the present time there are certain specific populations of people whose optimal number of doses might be fewer than others.
kyleblarson 4y ago
I think a lot of the resentment comes out of "the experts" changing their narratives a dozen times about the efficacy of the vaccines over the last 3 years while browbeating anyone who voiced any amount of skepticism.
- ajross 4y ago
  - mrguyorama 4y ago
    These people also seem to ignore that CIRCUMSTANCES HAVE CHANGED QUITE A BIT over the entire pandemic. Of COURSE recommendations made when the vaccine first came out might need to be modified or updated as more gets learned about possible side effects and how it interacts with different variants. These people never seem to have a problem with the changes in the polio vaccine over the years, or chickenpox
    - mcronce 4y ago
      They also like to yell and scream about how "science can't make up its mind" Yes, because that's how science works. When new information is acquired, new hypotheses are created and tested.
      - gjsman-1000 4y ago
        People were literally fired from their jobs, removed from 30+ year military careers, over the science, only for the science to keep changing. If science can't make up its mind and this is "how science works," anyone who thinks anything should be mandated based on science should be shot. You can't tell people something, have it directly and deeply affect their personal lives, then tell them something substantially different 2 years later, without people grabbing pitchforks. Your theoretical definition of science is irrelevant and makes popular perception of "science" a whimsical joke.
        4y ago
sudden_dystopia 4y ago
They are making these leaps of logic because people have refused to look into it…
claytongulick 4y ago
Many other people have replied with great information, but I'm going to respectfully disagree with: > The problem is the massive leaps of logic being made by people who have (quite wrongly, based on available evidence) become convinced that the vaccines are a greater threat to healthy people than the virus is. I believe the problem is that we were so convinced that our solution to covid was infallible that we removed a basic human right: the ability to make informed choice about your medical care. I'm not a conspiracy theorist, I believe that most people involved did this out of a genuine desire to save lives and help people. The issue is the hubris. The idea that "I know better than you do what's good for you and for society, so I'm going to force you to do a thing". This is where we went wrong. The forcing. If we'd presented vaccination as informed choice, had recommendations but not coercion, I think there would have been a lot less resistance. We decided that public health was a trump card that allowed us to ignore almost every civil liberty the U.S. was founded on. We actively limited speech and debate, going to far as to silence and destroy the lives and careers of qualified physicians who dissented. We restricted freedom of assembly. We seized property through forced business closing without compensation. We restricted free movement. We coerced vaccination in the strongest possible ways shy of physical force. The list goes on. We did this out of a hubris that "we know better than you". It doesn't really matter whether this is true or not, it's fundamentally anti-liberal. It's made worse by the unfortunate fact that in most cases we were wrong. Asymptomatic spread wasn't a thing. The initial studies that said it was were based on flawed methodology. Even China isn't counting asymptomatic cases anymore. Pretty much every model that we based policy off of, predicting extreme fatality rates and recommending extraordinary interventions, were dead wrong. As others have pointed out, mortality counts were wildly off due to many factors, including how death certificates were filled out (died with covid v/s died from covid). The vulnerable populations were identified fairly early on, but we chose to implement draconian restrictions for everyone, regardless of their individual risk. This was the problem. Hubris.
- TrispusAttucks 4y ago
  Yep. Fuck authoritarians! Never forget.
  - 4y ago
commandlinefan 4y ago
> even less likely that they'll die from a vaccine side effect My understanding is that there've always been risks associated with vaccines, and they were always relatively small risks. What I can't find any unbiased information about is how the risks of the Covid vaccine compare with the risks of, say, the mumps or rubella vaccines.
zmgsabst 4y ago
Okay, please explain my leap in logic: - I was curious - I went to OECD to get datasets for COVID, excess, and all mortality [1] - I subtracted COVID deaths from excess deaths to get “likely non-COVID excess deaths” - then I made a chart [2], showing the ratio of COVID to non-COVID; log-2 scale with a black line at zero (equal COVID and non-COVID) - I expected mostly COVID excess, like during the delta wave near the 2020/2021 boundary - chart doesn’t look like that - I would like the FDA to explain more, including serious studies What is wrong about that process? [1] - https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=104676 https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=104676 [2] - https://zmichaelgehlke.com/images/relative-mortality.png https://zmichaelgehlke.com/images/relative-mortality.png
- Izkata 4y ago
  What are the overlapping curves here? Different age groups, different countries, something else?
  - zmgsabst 4y ago
    Each curve is one of the countries from the OECD dataset with partial opacity; the darker regions are overlaps.
- marcosdumay 4y ago
  Ok, let's see. Your graph does clearly have a peak at the 2020/2021 boundary, that falls down after the vaccines got widespread, by the middle of 2021 (with most countries going into negative excess deaths). There is another, smaller peak at the end of 2021, that's when omicron got widespread. What exactly were you expecting to see?
  - zmgsabst 4y ago
    This chart isn’t absolute death: it’s the ratio of two causes of death. You’re not seeing countries go into negative excess in 2021 and 2022 — you’re seeing non-COVID excess surge. I was expecting during the omicron wave that we had more than two COVID deaths compared to non-COVID excess deaths — and that more broadly, we’d see more COVID than other excess death What we see instead is that during the height of omicron, 33% of the excess death was non-COVID — and that for most of 2021 and 2022, 66% of the excess death was non-COVID. What has been killing as many people as a global pandemic? — and if there’s so many non-COVID excess deaths, did our policies help?
__blockcipher__ 4y ago
> The problem is the massive leaps of logic being made by people who have (quite wrongly, based on available evidence) become convinced that the vaccines are a greater threat to healthy people than the virus is. That may be true overall (and it may not btw, only time will tell), but it's certainly not true on a by-indvidual basis. Someone who's, say, 18 with no major health disorders is going to experience a lot more risk of adverse outcome from any of the vaccines than from SARS-CoV-2. That's partially a function of the incredible SARS-CoV-2 outcomes in the "not old" age range but also because vaccination is also a fundamentally different intervention than exposure to the entire SARS-CoV-2 virus. If we're talking about the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer/moderna/etc), those are basically spike protein mRNA suspended in lipid nanoparticles. It makes your cells express the spike protein, not the whole SARS-CoV-2 virus. So metaphorically speaking you're getting pure spike protein antigen, and different peoples' genetic predispositions/etc are going to play out differently in that scenario as opposed to contact with the normal virus. ...Like those of the people in the case report we're looking at.
- yosame 4y ago
  You literally just made the wild leap of logic the parent comment was talking about. The mRNA vaccines have a modified spike protein, that is non functional compared to natural infection. On top of that, cells naturally infected with covid also express the spike protein [1], and would do so in far greater amounts than what would be caused by the vaccine. People's different genetic dispositions will change their immune response, and that might maybe change how they respond to the vaccine as opposed to the virus. But there's no way of knowing which way you will fall, and our current evidence suggests that getting the vaccine is probably always the safer alternative. [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8941975/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8941975/
chiefalchemist 4y ago
> we have millions of both covid cases and vaccinations to back that up. This study looked at 25 cases of unexpected death in Fair enough, but where is that data? Why a study of only 25 if there are millions? It's not a conspiracy theory to say such things simply don't add up. The largest drug test in history and no encompassing and definitive follow up? Why? Not trolling. Serious question (i.e., why).
- svnt 4y ago
  Without spending much time you could determine why by reading the paper. Most likely it is because they could only find 25 out of millions.
isityouyesitsme 4y ago
As someone who is also fully vaccinated, I am not sure how you can say it is overall good simply because most people will not react poorly. That is like saying Russian Roulette is a perfectly fine game to play because only one person is going to die, and that's OK. Shouldn't people decide that for themselves? Note, I am not saying you are saying it is not that they should decide for themselves, it is more that yours is the same logic used to defend vaccine mandates.
throwawaylinux 4y ago
My entire issue actually has nothing to do with health, and everything to do with authoritarianism. Before the vaccine mandates and coercion I had a seething hatred of corrupt and incompetent little tyrants in positions of power, afterward was nothing new, it just confirmed what I already knew about them. I don't care if I would have a statistically better outcome with the vaccine, I took great pleasure in standing up and defying their bullying and coercion. The wailing and the gnashing of teeth and name calling and crocodile tears from these pathetic clowns about people not getting vaccinated really warmed my heart gave me great pleasure and has mentally helped me tremendously in the past few years. I'm actually starting to feel a bit sad they're slithering back into their holes now, I was hoping for a showdown, but these people are nothing if not cowards like all bullies so this is to be expected. What surprised me more was how many and how quickly people folded, or never even had any concerns in the first place. Obviously a good portion of the population are a meek and subservient type who want to be ruled and protected. After that a good number are flighty and will panic and run with the heard if something spooks them, sadly a trait that's easily exploited. I really should not have been surprised though, I've seen the same dynamic play out time and time again to start wars, invade privacy, take rights, and take money so irrational optimism that it would be different next time is my failing.
- xcrunner529 4y ago
  “I drove my car off a cliff to really stick it to society” What’s warmed my heart is most Covid deaths being from the unvaccinated. Clearing out the weak and stupid even sooner than natural causes.
  - throwawaylinux 4y ago
    > “I drove my car off a cliff to really stick it to society” Strawman. > What’s warmed my heart is most Covid deaths being from the unvaccinated. Clearing out the weak and stupid even sooner than natural causes. And the wailing and gnashing of teeth continues. You sound like a nasty, sick person xcrunner529. They don't make a jab for that. EDIT: I will give you the benefit of the doubt though, in the spirit of this website. Perhaps you are not naturally like this, but that you have just been radicalized by hateful rhetoric from violent extremists that I see going around all too often these days. And you're lashing out here because you're being precious about the fact you've been lead to believe incorrect things about the vaccines and virus so many times. If that is the case I wish you the best in your recovery.
CrimsonRain 4y ago
why is that logic jump is happening? Mostly because of censorship. If your logic needs censorship to prevent logic jumps, perhaps your logic isn't solid to begin with (or mixed with lies like the vaccine). For healthy persons in certain age group, COVID risk is almost missing. If they don't want vaccine, regardless of taking 3 doses, I have no right to tell them to take not-thoroughly tested vaccine to help reduce the spread at the potential cost of their own. The solution is more open studies and acknowledge statistical (in)significance of vax side effects instead of trying to shove it under conspiracy and censorship. Oh, and dont lie about vaccine effectiveness.

addingadimensio 4y ago

addingadimensio 4y ago
- dang 4y ago
  We've banned this account for using HN primarily for ideological battle. You can't do that here, and yes that rule holds regardless of which ideology you're battling for or against. It's not what this site is for, and destroys what it is for. Please don't create accounts to break HN's rules with. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

tempsy 4y ago

Ok, so if you believe your chance of dying of covid is improbably small due to age and overall health, why is it necessary to be vaccinated even if there's only a small chance of side effects? Rare is not zero. I don't even take OTC pain killers like advil unless I absolutely feel like I have to.

vannevar 4y ago
Because a) the risk from covid, while small, is still greater than the risk from the vaccines and b) unvaccinated people are more likely to be infected and become a vector for the virus, infecting other people.
- dtauzell 4y ago
  Is there any evidence for (b)? My understanding is that you are just as likely to get vaccinated and "shed" the virus for just as long, but are less likely to be severely sick.
  - mtillman 4y ago
    I think you mean "get sick" which is untrue. You are less likely to get sick if vaccinated. You are also less likely to experience severe symptoms if vaccinated. https://health.howstuffworks.com/wellness/preventive-care/vaccine.htm https://health.howstuffworks.com/wellness/preventive-care/va...
  - bryanlarsen 4y ago
    Your understanding is wrong. Vaccinated and unvaccinated people with symptomatic COVID shed at comparable rates, but vaccinated people are less likely to get symptomatic COVID. The difference wanes considerably if your last shot was > 6 months ago, but is still present.
- bscphil 4y ago
  > unvaccinated people are more likely to be infected and become a vector for the virus, infecting other people. I'd add to this the fact that it was especially true earlier in the pandemic, and at that time COVID was significantly more likely to be fatal. Even if someone rejects the idea of getting a fourth dose of the vaccine (rightly or wrongly), it's possible to think that the first two doses were an entirely reasonable one-time intervention into an ongoing pandemic that saved many thousands of lives.
- commandlinefan 4y ago

bb88 4y ago

Since the Musk takeover, conspiracy theorists on $8Chan have talked about Grant Wahl dying suddenly because of the "clot shot". Then we find out he died of a ruptured aortic aneurysm. Then people still refuse to believe it because it doesn't fit their narrative they're pushing. And anyone who dies suddenly must have died because of the vaccine. https://twitter.com/DiedSuddenly_/status/1603103342481342465 https://twitter.com/DiedSuddenly_/status/1603103342481342465 This killed John Ritter, George C. Scott, Lucille Ball and Albert Einstein. But somehow the vaccine is to blame for anyone who dies of it now...

westmeal 4y ago
People will believe whatever they want to believe, just let them stew.
- bb88 4y ago
  This works until it leads to politicians asking for grand juries to investigate anyone associated with the vaccine. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/dec/13/ron-desantis-grand-jury-investigation-covid-vaccines-florida https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/dec/13/ron-desantis...
- phtrivier 4y ago
  Unfortunately, some of them don't stew in silence - and consider anyone who got vaccinated with exactly the same contempt as you do. Which is all fun and games until you have to, you know, _live_ with them in the real world because they're your family and / or loved ones ?
kennend3 4y ago
There is also the "Canadian doctors" story the anti-vax group continue to flog yet it has being proven wrong over and over again. https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2022/11/07/why-wont-a-debunked-conspiracy-theory-about-doctors-harmed-by-the-covid-vaccine-go-away.html https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2022/11/07/why-wont-a-de... One of the doctors drowned in a river attempting to save his kids, yet the anti-vax group elect to leverage his tragedy for their narrative.

encryptluks2 4y ago

There is a lot of evidence that the system to report vaccine injuries is largely ignored and people that report issues are ostracized for doing so. It also begs to question how often injuries would go unreported or misreported because of the difficulties of being linked to the actual cause, and many doctors may be unwilling to claim a vaccine caused an injury just due to the stigma around vaccine injuries, especially in regards to COVID-19.

Daishiman 4y ago

skissane 4y ago

> The problem is the massive leaps of logic being made by people who have (quite wrongly, based on available evidence) become convinced that the vaccines are a greater threat to healthy people than the virus is. In some cases, it may well be true that the vaccine is a greater risk than the virus. For example, in Australia, the official recommendation is that healthy people under 30 not receive a fourth dose of COVID-19 vaccine, since Australian health officials believe the risk from vaccine side effects (such as myocarditis) in that age group outweighs the risk of COVID-19 itself. [0] Furthermore, for healthy people in the 30-49 age group, the official Australian position on fourth doses is "permitted but not recommended", since it is unclear if the risk of COVID-19 is greater than that of the vaccine. This is different from the recommendations made by a number of other countries (US, UK, Canada, Singapore), but it appears Australian health authorities weigh the risk of vaccination side effects versus the risk of COVID-19 differently than they do. [0] https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-you-won-t-get-another-covid-shot-this-year-despite-rising-cases-20221110-p5bx78.html https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-you-won-t-get-another-co...

wsc981 4y ago
Denmark doesn’t recommend COVID vaccines anymore to anyone under 50 who is not at risk or work in health sector [0]. > People aged under 50 are generally not at particularly higher risk of becoming severely ill from covid-19. In addition, younger people aged under 50 are well protected against becoming severely ill from covid-19, as a very large number of them have already been vaccinated and have previously been infected with covid-19, and there is consequently good immunity among this part of the population. ——— [0]: https://sst.dk/en/English/Corona-eng/Vaccination-against-covid-19 https://sst.dk/en/English/Corona-eng/Vaccination-against-cov...
- birken 4y ago
  While I think it is certainly fair to talk about the policies of other countries, I don't think just because another country has a different policy necessarily dictates that policy is better or worse. Additionally, I think it's very easy to see something like "Denmark doesn't recommend the vaccines to anybody under 50" and conflate that it means that Denmark doesn't think vaccines were ever beneficial to people under the age of 50 (which is the leap in logic you often see on anti-vax sites). But that isn't the case. What was good health policy in 2021 is different from good health policy now, because we have way more information about the virus, better and more effective drug to treat it, new variants, etc. Two things can be true at the same time: The vaccines are (on net) incredibly beneficial to people and the population as a whole, and yet at the present time there are certain specific populations of people whose optimal number of doses might be fewer than others.

kyleblarson 4y ago

I think a lot of the resentment comes out of "the experts" changing their narratives a dozen times about the efficacy of the vaccines over the last 3 years while browbeating anyone who voiced any amount of skepticism.

ajross 4y ago
- mrguyorama 4y ago
  These people also seem to ignore that CIRCUMSTANCES HAVE CHANGED QUITE A BIT over the entire pandemic. Of COURSE recommendations made when the vaccine first came out might need to be modified or updated as more gets learned about possible side effects and how it interacts with different variants. These people never seem to have a problem with the changes in the polio vaccine over the years, or chickenpox
  - mcronce 4y ago
    They also like to yell and scream about how "science can't make up its mind" Yes, because that's how science works. When new information is acquired, new hypotheses are created and tested.
    - gjsman-1000 4y ago
      People were literally fired from their jobs, removed from 30+ year military careers, over the science, only for the science to keep changing. If science can't make up its mind and this is "how science works," anyone who thinks anything should be mandated based on science should be shot. You can't tell people something, have it directly and deeply affect their personal lives, then tell them something substantially different 2 years later, without people grabbing pitchforks. Your theoretical definition of science is irrelevant and makes popular perception of "science" a whimsical joke.
      - 4y ago

sudden_dystopia 4y ago

They are making these leaps of logic because people have refused to look into it…

claytongulick 4y ago

Many other people have replied with great information, but I'm going to respectfully disagree with: > The problem is the massive leaps of logic being made by people who have (quite wrongly, based on available evidence) become convinced that the vaccines are a greater threat to healthy people than the virus is. I believe the problem is that we were so convinced that our solution to covid was infallible that we removed a basic human right: the ability to make informed choice about your medical care. I'm not a conspiracy theorist, I believe that most people involved did this out of a genuine desire to save lives and help people. The issue is the hubris. The idea that "I know better than you do what's good for you and for society, so I'm going to force you to do a thing". This is where we went wrong. The forcing. If we'd presented vaccination as informed choice, had recommendations but not coercion, I think there would have been a lot less resistance. We decided that public health was a trump card that allowed us to ignore almost every civil liberty the U.S. was founded on. We actively limited speech and debate, going to far as to silence and destroy the lives and careers of qualified physicians who dissented. We restricted freedom of assembly. We seized property through forced business closing without compensation. We restricted free movement. We coerced vaccination in the strongest possible ways shy of physical force. The list goes on. We did this out of a hubris that "we know better than you". It doesn't really matter whether this is true or not, it's fundamentally anti-liberal. It's made worse by the unfortunate fact that in most cases we were wrong. Asymptomatic spread wasn't a thing. The initial studies that said it was were based on flawed methodology. Even China isn't counting asymptomatic cases anymore. Pretty much every model that we based policy off of, predicting extreme fatality rates and recommending extraordinary interventions, were dead wrong. As others have pointed out, mortality counts were wildly off due to many factors, including how death certificates were filled out (died with covid v/s died from covid). The vulnerable populations were identified fairly early on, but we chose to implement draconian restrictions for everyone, regardless of their individual risk. This was the problem. Hubris.

TrispusAttucks 4y ago
Yep. Fuck authoritarians! Never forget.
- 4y ago

commandlinefan 4y ago

> even less likely that they'll die from a vaccine side effect My understanding is that there've always been risks associated with vaccines, and they were always relatively small risks. What I can't find any unbiased information about is how the risks of the Covid vaccine compare with the risks of, say, the mumps or rubella vaccines.

zmgsabst 4y ago

Okay, please explain my leap in logic: - I was curious - I went to OECD to get datasets for COVID, excess, and all mortality [1] - I subtracted COVID deaths from excess deaths to get “likely non-COVID excess deaths” - then I made a chart [2], showing the ratio of COVID to non-COVID; log-2 scale with a black line at zero (equal COVID and non-COVID) - I expected mostly COVID excess, like during the delta wave near the 2020/2021 boundary - chart doesn’t look like that - I would like the FDA to explain more, including serious studies What is wrong about that process? [1] - https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=104676 https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=104676 [2] - https://zmichaelgehlke.com/images/relative-mortality.png https://zmichaelgehlke.com/images/relative-mortality.png

Izkata 4y ago
What are the overlapping curves here? Different age groups, different countries, something else?
- zmgsabst 4y ago
  Each curve is one of the countries from the OECD dataset with partial opacity; the darker regions are overlaps.
marcosdumay 4y ago
Ok, let's see. Your graph does clearly have a peak at the 2020/2021 boundary, that falls down after the vaccines got widespread, by the middle of 2021 (with most countries going into negative excess deaths). There is another, smaller peak at the end of 2021, that's when omicron got widespread. What exactly were you expecting to see?
- zmgsabst 4y ago
  This chart isn’t absolute death: it’s the ratio of two causes of death. You’re not seeing countries go into negative excess in 2021 and 2022 — you’re seeing non-COVID excess surge. I was expecting during the omicron wave that we had more than two COVID deaths compared to non-COVID excess deaths — and that more broadly, we’d see more COVID than other excess death What we see instead is that during the height of omicron, 33% of the excess death was non-COVID — and that for most of 2021 and 2022, 66% of the excess death was non-COVID. What has been killing as many people as a global pandemic? — and if there’s so many non-COVID excess deaths, did our policies help?

__blockcipher__ 4y ago

> The problem is the massive leaps of logic being made by people who have (quite wrongly, based on available evidence) become convinced that the vaccines are a greater threat to healthy people than the virus is. That may be true overall (and it may not btw, only time will tell), but it's certainly not true on a by-indvidual basis. Someone who's, say, 18 with no major health disorders is going to experience a lot more risk of adverse outcome from any of the vaccines than from SARS-CoV-2. That's partially a function of the incredible SARS-CoV-2 outcomes in the "not old" age range but also because vaccination is also a fundamentally different intervention than exposure to the entire SARS-CoV-2 virus. If we're talking about the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer/moderna/etc), those are basically spike protein mRNA suspended in lipid nanoparticles. It makes your cells express the spike protein, not the whole SARS-CoV-2 virus. So metaphorically speaking you're getting pure spike protein antigen, and different peoples' genetic predispositions/etc are going to play out differently in that scenario as opposed to contact with the normal virus. ...Like those of the people in the case report we're looking at.

yosame 4y ago
You literally just made the wild leap of logic the parent comment was talking about. The mRNA vaccines have a modified spike protein, that is non functional compared to natural infection. On top of that, cells naturally infected with covid also express the spike protein [1], and would do so in far greater amounts than what would be caused by the vaccine. People's different genetic dispositions will change their immune response, and that might maybe change how they respond to the vaccine as opposed to the virus. But there's no way of knowing which way you will fall, and our current evidence suggests that getting the vaccine is probably always the safer alternative. [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8941975/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8941975/

chiefalchemist 4y ago

> we have millions of both covid cases and vaccinations to back that up. This study looked at 25 cases of unexpected death in Fair enough, but where is that data? Why a study of only 25 if there are millions? It's not a conspiracy theory to say such things simply don't add up. The largest drug test in history and no encompassing and definitive follow up? Why? Not trolling. Serious question (i.e., why).

svnt 4y ago
Without spending much time you could determine why by reading the paper. Most likely it is because they could only find 25 out of millions.

isityouyesitsme 4y ago

As someone who is also fully vaccinated, I am not sure how you can say it is overall good simply because most people will not react poorly. That is like saying Russian Roulette is a perfectly fine game to play because only one person is going to die, and that's OK. Shouldn't people decide that for themselves? Note, I am not saying you are saying it is not that they should decide for themselves, it is more that yours is the same logic used to defend vaccine mandates.

throwawaylinux 4y ago

My entire issue actually has nothing to do with health, and everything to do with authoritarianism. Before the vaccine mandates and coercion I had a seething hatred of corrupt and incompetent little tyrants in positions of power, afterward was nothing new, it just confirmed what I already knew about them. I don't care if I would have a statistically better outcome with the vaccine, I took great pleasure in standing up and defying their bullying and coercion. The wailing and the gnashing of teeth and name calling and crocodile tears from these pathetic clowns about people not getting vaccinated really warmed my heart gave me great pleasure and has mentally helped me tremendously in the past few years. I'm actually starting to feel a bit sad they're slithering back into their holes now, I was hoping for a showdown, but these people are nothing if not cowards like all bullies so this is to be expected. What surprised me more was how many and how quickly people folded, or never even had any concerns in the first place. Obviously a good portion of the population are a meek and subservient type who want to be ruled and protected. After that a good number are flighty and will panic and run with the heard if something spooks them, sadly a trait that's easily exploited. I really should not have been surprised though, I've seen the same dynamic play out time and time again to start wars, invade privacy, take rights, and take money so irrational optimism that it would be different next time is my failing.

xcrunner529 4y ago
“I drove my car off a cliff to really stick it to society” What’s warmed my heart is most Covid deaths being from the unvaccinated. Clearing out the weak and stupid even sooner than natural causes.
- throwawaylinux 4y ago
  > “I drove my car off a cliff to really stick it to society” Strawman. > What’s warmed my heart is most Covid deaths being from the unvaccinated. Clearing out the weak and stupid even sooner than natural causes. And the wailing and gnashing of teeth continues. You sound like a nasty, sick person xcrunner529. They don't make a jab for that. EDIT: I will give you the benefit of the doubt though, in the spirit of this website. Perhaps you are not naturally like this, but that you have just been radicalized by hateful rhetoric from violent extremists that I see going around all too often these days. And you're lashing out here because you're being precious about the fact you've been lead to believe incorrect things about the vaccines and virus so many times. If that is the case I wish you the best in your recovery.

CrimsonRain 4y ago

why is that logic jump is happening? Mostly because of censorship. If your logic needs censorship to prevent logic jumps, perhaps your logic isn't solid to begin with (or mixed with lies like the vaccine). For healthy persons in certain age group, COVID risk is almost missing. If they don't want vaccine, regardless of taking 3 doses, I have no right to tell them to take not-thoroughly tested vaccine to help reduce the spread at the potential cost of their own. The solution is more open studies and acknowledge statistical (in)significance of vax side effects instead of trying to shove it under conspiracy and censorship. Oh, and dont lie about vaccine effectiveness.