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Factory jobs are booming like it’s the 1970s
- tullianus 4y agohttps://archive.ph/wIGLB https://archive.ph/wIGLB
- throwayyy479087 4y agoUnwinding of global supply chains in order to reduce risk has been fantastic for the middle class. Look at the boom towns of Columbus, KC, Houston etc.
- kombucha13 4y agoI'm all for manufacturing jobs coming back but do we have adequate environment protection to safely facilitate that kind of change? Part of the reason the air is so clean in the US is partially due to offshoring (for better or for worse).
- buescher 4y agoShort answer: yes. Despite the doomsayers and the fact that you might not know anyone that works in manufacturing, the US is still a manufacturing powerhouse. https://www.brookings.edu/research/global-manufacturing-scorecard-how-the-us-compares-to-18-other-nations/ https://www.brookings.edu/research/global-manufacturing-scor... At 18% of global manufacturing output already, "a net gain of 67,000 workers above prepandemic levels" is not going to move the needle.
- MisterMower 4y agoIt’s all final assembly automotive and aerospace. It’s not real manufacturing. All the real components from screws to relays to sheet metal and injection molded plastic parts are made somewhere other than the US. But yeah, if you export 300 787’s and A320’s each year, you’ll get the false impression the US is a manufacturing “powerhouse.”
- PenguinCoder 4y agoGatekeep much?
- MisterMower 4y agoRefute arguments much? Explain where I’m mistaken.
- buescher 4y agoYou're just wrong. Yes, US manufacturing is mostly high-value-add stuff. Because wages are high. Don't go into hock to start a toothpick factory in the USA. But go look up how many people are employed in manufacturing. 67,000 does not move the needle, though it's probably a lot as a percentage of new jobs. And automotive and aerospace are not the two biggest sectors of US manufacturing. (Boeing was the largest exporter for years though, probably still is). Look it up.
- MisterMower 4y agoIs mating two fuselage sections made in Mexico and slapping on engines made in Malaysia manufacturing? Not in my book. That’s assembly, not manufacturing, regardless of how lucrative it may be.
- buescher 4y agoYou're just wrong. US manufacturing is a lot more than final assembly of airplanes and automobiles. Aerospace and automotive aren't the top manufacturing sectors either. You're just wrong about that. You can look up that you're just wrong, but you're not bothering to. You can look up that final assembly is manufacturing - your book is just wrong. Why should I take "your book" seriously about anything?
- MisterMower 4y ago> US manufacturing is a lot more than final assembly of airplanes and automobiles. The truth of the matter is the bulk of the components that matter in those products are made somewhere other than the US. The hard work is done elsewhere. I just replaced a capacitor in my 2009 Maytag washing machine. Original capacitor was made in Mexico. The replacement was from Taiwan. The motor was made in China. Every product "made" in the US is a hodgepodge of imported components. > You can look up that final assembly is manufacturing I don't dispute that that's how it gets measured in official statistics, but I'm telling you it's a misrepresentation of what's actually occurring in industry. I work for an OEM aerospace manufacturer. Fuselages get made in Mexico. Wings get made in Japan. Engines get made in Europe and most parts for them are sourced from Russia, which is causing major shortages right now. Landing gear are forged in Brazil. We used to do it all here in the US, now we have a paint booth and a service center. But hey, final assembly is manufacturing! The US is an industrial powerhouse! Seriously, go look around your house. Show me a piece of furniture or appliance that was made in the US. You can't. You'd be lucky to have one that was assembled in the US. Shoot, your phone and computer probably weren't even made here. And if they were, again, the important parts that took all the work were probably made in Asia. Believe me, I wish I were wrong. I would love to be wrong. But you saying I'm wrong doesn't change reality. Stop believing statistics that are built on lies and start believing what you can clearly see before your very eyes.
- mlsu 4y agoThis statistic is often trotted out. It's in dollars, which is very misleading and forms an incomplete picture of the ecosystem required to have true manufacturing ability. We do final assembly on an automobile and that gets registered as big $$$. But it's actually pretty easy to assemble a bunch of already-made parts. Much more difficult (and quite a lot of skill, built up over decades) to make the fuel pump from raw inputs! We lack completely the lower three-quarters of the pyramid. By this same logic, I did $500 in manufacturing this quarter because I assembled two Billy bookcase... nah. You don't know anyone because... we don't do a lot of manufacturing. The pre-made imported parts come into a handful of Toyota factories, and a whole bunch of very expensive SUVs come out. That's how you can get such a high $$$ number and not know anyone who works manufacturing.
- buescher 4y agoSure, the whole supply chain is not in the US, and less of it is in the US than in past decades. That is not the point. You probably don't know anyone who works in manufacturing because you're in the demographic that reads hackernews. Using the automotive industry as an example is a big tell, you know, because a whole lot more than cars is manufactured in the US. Manufacturing is not a huge percentage of US employment, but it is much, much bigger than you think in raw numbers. Go look it up - 67,000 does not move the needle, though it's a big percentage of new jobs.
- rdtwo 4y agoNo they are all going to areas with lax regulations.
- api 4y agoWe live on one planet. Offshoring makes pollution a lot worse by not only moving it to where there's lax regulations but adding a whole bunch of additional energy cost to ship everything back here. Manufacturing where there are environmental regulations will push improvements in efficiency and waste management too, making the process more efficient in the long run.
- kombucha13 4y agoI dont disagree. I hope that adequate environmental regulations persist and those improvements in efficiency are realized.
- wizofaus 4y agoDepends what sort of pollution though - obviously if you're talking GHG emissions or many other small-molecule airborne pollutants (though not CO) it doesn't really matter where it's being emitted. But other sorts of pollution are much more local, and depending on the surrounding ecosystem (esp. waterways) and level of human habitation, it very much may well make sense to ensure it only occurs in areas where it will have less harmful effect.
- ipaddr 4y agoAgree with your comments but ghg are not pollutants. They are a necessary part of an ecosystem that is being tipped too far in one direction
- wizofaus 4y agoSounds a bit like the claim that micronutrients like zinc or cadmium can't qualify as toxins (despite having toxic qualities at high doses).
- landemva 4y agoAbout the only tax increase in USA I would support is an incoming environmental parity tariff. Make iStuff in China India Indonesia, though the incoming environmental tariff won't make it cheaper to pollute over there.
- gedy 4y agoCompared to rest of world? Yes
- ch4s3 4y agoMuch of the rest of the world, yes. Compared to maybe Germany perhaps not as much.
- daniel-cussen 4y agoCept in San Francisco, it swirls all the way from China and like 18% of the air pollution is from there. Like it was a suckafucking Japanese balloon bomb, the first intercontinental ranged weapon, only dent the Japanese made in the Manhattan Project was with that balloon. Very overpowered. It's not such a big planet.
- twblalock 4y agoIt’s a fantasy to think we can have modern society without some form of environmental damage, and it’s also a fantasy to believe that factory jobs would be less damaging to the environment if they were located in other countries.
- kombucha13 4y agoThats not what I was saying at all. I don't prefer the outsourcing of pollution.
- outside1234 4y agoIt can't be worse than what was happening in China
- mensetmanusman 4y agoThe world shares the air.
- landemva 4y agoNo worries about air quality as we will keep the smelters in .mx and pollute there. The input constraints for USA manufacturing will be process water and reliable affordable power.
- euroderf 4y agoSo what's the latest then w.r.t. "Chimerica"[1] ? [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chimerica https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chimerica
- tuatoru 4y agoAnd what happened to the Rise of the Robots[1]? And Frey and Osborne[2], and Daniel Susskind[3], and all the others like them? Weren't assembly and logistics workers all supposed to be obsolete by now? 1. Earliest iterations before 2012! https://www.amazon.com/Rise-Robots-Technology-Threat-Jobless/dp/0465097537 https://www.amazon.com/Rise-Robots-Technology-Threat-Jobless... 2. 2013! https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Fut... 3. https://www.economist.com/books-and-arts/2020/01/23/robots-may-well-take-your-job-eventually https://www.economist.com/books-and-arts/2020/01/23/robots-m... 4. The hype is still being sold: https://www.teaminternational.com/automation-future-jobs/ https://www.teaminternational.com/automation-future-jobs/ https://financesonline.com/jobs-lost-to-automation-statistics/ https://financesonline.com/jobs-lost-to-automation-statistic...
- mikewarot 4y agoChina has a de-ranged Autocrat, and a Covid vaccine that just doesn't work. The only tool they have to try to contain Covid is aggressive quarantine, which has taken a large part of their economy offline. The US is going to have to double it's manufacturing base in the next decade as the world deglobalizes.
- mschuster91 4y ago> The US is going to have to double it's manufacturing base in the next decade as the world deglobalizes. A lot of that will probably be more-or-less automated though.
- mikewarot 4y agoYes, but even so, we're going into a perpetual labor shortage due to the population pyramid. Even CNC machines need people to program them, load/unload parts, tools, empty the chips, replace lubricant, etc. Parts have to be inspected, packed for shipping, etc. There are a lot of people involved in manufacturing, the vast factories with no people in them and lights out are the rare exception.
- danjoredd 4y agoCan confirm, the demand for factory work is insane right now. I know someone who went to work for a factory because the pandemic effectively killed his profession (union pipeline welder) and he pretty much exclusively works 12 hour shifts 6 days a week because there just isn't enough workers to keep up with the demand atm. He was in a desperate situation because he got saddled with debt trying to stay afloat during Covid, so he just does that and keeps his head down all the time while paying things off. Its a shame too, he was so close to retirement and now I don't think he will be able to.
- phpthrowaway99 4y agoHow does a union welder get saddled with debt trying to stay afloat during covid? What was the thing he was taking on debt for to keep afloat? What does keeping something afloat even mean? He took on new debt to make payments on his old debt? I say this as someone that knows two pipeline welders in Wyoming. They were living it up with their time off. Who do you think bought all those side by sides in 2020 and 2021. You couldn't find one to buy no matter how far you were willing to drive. Do you think it was the office worker crowd buying $30k go-karts?
- prionassembly 4y agoDebt is one of those "gradually, then suddenly" things.
- Apocryphon 4y agoWonder how this will affect/be affected by the revival in labor unions over the past couple of years.
- kube-system 4y agoI suspect that with high labor demand and the fact that these jobs are shifting towards the south and west, there won’t be much push for unionization at least for a little while. Now, if the market continues to cool down, it may be a different story.
- pkaye 4y agoWith the boomers retiring there will be less workers so workers will have more leverage. Companies will also want on bring back some of the jobs from overseas due to all the supply chain risks elsewhere.
- loonster 4y agoThe big push for diversity is an anti union movement.
- reilly3000 4y agoPlease elaborate
- brippalcharrid 4y agoYou might want to ask Whole Foods/Amazon about that: > Store-risk metrics include average store compensation, average total store sales, and a “diversity index” that represents the racial and ethnic diversity of every store. Stores at higher risk of unionizing have lower diversity and lower employee compensation, as well as higher total store sales and higher rates of workers’ compensation claims, according to the documents https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/20/21228324/amazon-whole-foods-unionization-heat-map-union https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/20/21228324/amazon-whole-foo...
- 4y ago
- fundad 4y agoThe people giddy for recession are not going to like this
- time_to_smile 4y agoBut the people giddy for the collapse of tech are going to be thrilled! The tech bubble continues to persist because people don't know where else to put their money. The tech bubble started because of the 2008 crash, investors needed a place to park their cash to see it grow, and tech seemed the best bet. That plus cheap capital meant throwing everything into tech no matter how ridiculous the fundamentals were. If this is really a trend we'll see the expedited crash of tech as money floods into manufacturing.
- ch4s3 4y agoThere are plenty of tech companies that build real products and deliver real value. Some of them even take VC money. There will probably be less money flowing into businesses that look to grow to category dominance in the B2C space, but there's still so many places in the economy that could see productivity gains from adopting boring tech.
- schrodinger 4y agoI think the Warren quote about "when the tide goes out, you realize who's naked" applies here. Tech is in every industry at this point, so it feels unlikely to fully crash as a sector. The recession and lack of cheap VC funding will expose the companies that don't actually have a reasonable business plan, but leave those that do. In other words, "make up the losses on volume" speculative companies will have a winter, but solid businesses (so many! medical equipment, logistics, entertainment, self-driving car progress) will weather the storm ok.
- UncleOxidant 4y agoThe very strong dollar would like a word.
- drewcoo 4y agoWhat about wages? No real mention of the wages of the ex-middle class.
- kube-system 4y agoThe wages are better than the service industry job many of these workers are leaving
- antisthenes 4y agoThere's no way your average service worker is qualified for factory work like precision machining or assembling moderately electronic devices. Are they getting training on the job as well?
- kube-system 4y agoYes, factories train many of their workers. High skill positions often have vocational training, like welding or machining. Assembly work is learned on the job.
- tenebrisalietum 4y agoSomebody has to put stuff in the box or operate the machine that does it.
- kasey_junk 4y agoThe article quotes an aerospace manufacturer talking about training people with different backgrounds.
- pessimizer 4y agoThey're not, they're worse: https://www.imagebam.com/view/MEE2BB0 https://www.imagebam.com/view/MEE2BB0
- lotsofpulp 4y agoThat graph is for total population to manufacturing population. kube-system is probably referring to the least paying jobs, in service businesses like hotels agents, housekeepers, fast food employees, retail employees, etc.
- nicolashahn 4y agoAs a retail investor, how do I take advantage of this?
- lotsofpulp 4y agoBuy and hold VOO or VTI or any other broad market low cost index fund. Unless you have information others do not (which usually disqualifies people getting informed by NYTimes). Time in the market > timing the market.
- oytis 4y agoI guess Europe is going to miss out again?
- outside1234 4y agoCan definitely imagine them not wanting to be held hostage by China either???
- oneoff786 4y agoCan’t exactly spring up your manufacturing base during an energy crisis. Mostly they’ll just try to keep their important ones afloat.
- makomk 4y agoEurope is basically deindustrialising right now due to a lack of sufficient energy supply: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/19/business/europe-energy-crisis-factories.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/19/business/europe-energy-cr... It's not even a case of Europe missing out, industry is actively collapsing over here.
- mrtksn 4y agoEurope either finds local and reliable energy sources or goes back to stone ages. Europe's problem is lack of energy and traditionalism, for the later maybe the Internet will eventually solve it but for the former the options are not good in short term. Actually, EU did a good job regulating everything consumer into efficiency however for the industry there's hard limit how much energy you need. Renewables can't come soon enough.
- badpun 4y agoEurope went a different path than the US. Essentially, after cheap Eastern European countries have joined the EU, a lot of manufacturing was moved there.
- oytis 4y agoYou know, some people in Eastern European countries complain about exactly the opposite. Anyway, Eastern Europe is far from experiencing a manufacturing boom either.
- UncleOxidant 4y agoHow long will this last with the dollar as strong as it is now (and likely will continue to be for the next few years)?
- bretbernhoft 4y agoThis reminds me of a quote from one of my favorite short stories, "The dollar was strong and jobs were plentiful, so when the factory in town announced they were hiring, hundreds of people applied. John was one of the lucky few who got a job. The hours were long and the work was hard, but John was grateful to have a job that paid well. With the extra money, he was able to buy his family a new house."
- oneoff786 4y agoWhy was John one of the lucky few; if jobs were plentiful?
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- mistrial9 4y agoperhaps because a certain percentage of the adult population needing jobs are actually unfit in real-life for real reasons
- mensetmanusman 4y agoIt’s like an ominous beginning that’s only positive…
- cellis 4y agoIs this a real short story or did you just GPT-3 this up?
- oneoff786 4y agoIt will continue. The dollar is rising because people need American stuff, not in spite of it. So long as Europe doesn’t have Russian gas, the rest of the world will be competing over a much smaller pool of energy in the form of LNG meaning it’s just much more expensive to do manufacturing. It’s not black and white but I would expect energy burdens to outweigh labor burdens for a good long while.
- rr808 4y agoI feel this is a reversing of the trend the last few decades. Asset prices dropping, tech in a hole, lowest earning workers getting the biggest raises.
- aaaaaaaaaaab 4y ago>Asset prices dropping Which assets in particular?
- deelowe 4y agoNot automobiles that’s for sure.
- aaaaaaaaaaab 4y agoAnd not real estate either.
- makomk 4y agoStocks, bonds, government gilts, even stuff like used cars and houses are looking a little less solid than they used to in many places.
- anm89 4y agoWhat? What assets arent dropping? The two examples below, used cars and real estate are now definitively losing value. Even oil and commidities arent up much any more.
- pessimizer 4y agoThere's no manufacturing premium over shitty service or labor jobs any more, so it doesn't matter. People reading this story intended to market the economy will assume that it means that more people are getting better pay. They're not. Since August 2006, crappy manufacturing jobs pay less than other crappy jobs. FRED graph: https://www.imagebam.com/view/MEE2BB0 https://www.imagebam.com/view/MEE2BB0
- xupybd 4y agoThere are many jobs that are not shitty within the manufacturing sector. I would guess the percentage of higher skilled jobs in manufacturing has increased over low skilled jobs. I work in manufacturing as a software developer.
- aliqot 4y agoI heard programming CNC is booming right now pay-wise.
- kube-system 4y agoThat’s comparing all jobs to manufacturing, no? The lowest wage jobs are dominated by service industry jobs: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/occupation-finder.htm?pay=Less+than+%2430%2C000&education=&training=&newjobs=&growth=&submit=GO https://www.bls.gov/ooh/occupation-finder.htm?pay=Less+than+... The only manufacturing jobs in the <30k group are in textiles.
- _8j50 4y agoMy first job was manufacturing, it sucks but I think it is better than retail and the service industry. You sweat and do boring things all day basically. I hear a lot of people in the service industry complaining, maybe many of them are better suited to work in union manufacturing job somewhere. I don't blame companies but the government on any lack of manufacturing jobs. China is cheap and from what I understand they are usually at most 3-4x cheaper not 10 or 10x cheaper right? So that just means stuff costs a bit more and less net profit margins for companies right? Not ideal but it should be economically viable I would think? I am just concerned there is a real chance of an eventual war with china when the west depends on them on so much but opposes them on a lot of things as well. Can the frenemy relationship last long?
- adventured 4y agoOther than crushing the economy to deal with inflation, as the Fed is attempting to do, you can also boost production. That's what the US should be focused heavily on. Infrastructure generally, grid, wind/solar/nuclear, manufacturing. And start expanding Medicaid upward (by incomes) and Medicare downward (by age). Raise income taxes on the top 1/4, aggressively on the top 10%. It'd be a good, modest start.
- refurb 4y agoYour suggesting we “boost production” by taking money out of the economy “raise income taxes” and increasing government spending? If that boosted the economy we’d be flying by now.
- EiZei 4y agoYou mean flying like it did between 1940 and 1970?
- robertlagrant 4y agoCorrelation isn't causation. That time was when only the US was able to make things, as most other first world places were devastated, and also the US got to call in its incredible loans from WW2.
- refurb 4y agoBut tax revenue and government spending is even bigger than that period. So why isn't growth even higher?
- oneoff786 4y agoYou should read the inflation reduction act. It tackles most of these things.
- foxes 4y agoMakes sense, America is a developing country.
- Ambolia 4y agoStrip-mining Europe from all their industry will help. But it is doubtful that the supply chain disruptions caused by it will not do more damage than what partial reindustrialization can accomplish. I guess we will find out next year.
- StanislavPetrov 4y agoIn the 1970s factory jobs came with generous pensions that meant a worker could retire comfortably in their mid 50s. In the 1970s a a factory job allowed the worker to afford to own their own home, their own new car, and support a spouse and children on the one income earned from the factory. In the 1970s the cost of healthcare for the factory worker and his family was inconsequential. Factory workers and their families were not bankrupt or even severely taxed by the cost of hospital visits, let alone routine healthcare. Factory jobs in the United States in 2022 do not resemble factory jobs in the United States in the 1970s in any way. This is a ridiculous comparison for the NYT to make.
- zxspectrum1982 4y ago
- thorncorona 4y agoThis is a result of the pandemic and business leaders finally shoring up supply chain weaknesses, not Trump.
- Gud 4y agoI wonder if Europe is seeing a similar trend. The factory I work for laid of 3/4 of its personnel and moved most production to our sister factory in another European country(with similar labor costs). I just assumed times were tough overall.
- ailef 4y agoMany European companies are starting/considering to move to the US attracted by the low energy prices. So from what I know, actually the opposite seems to be happening in Europe. Sadly, politicians were not able to say no to the US even when they were told to run full speed towards a 300m cliff.
- nxm 4y agoBreaking Points has called out this article for its BS. We are simply returning to pre-pandemic levels in terms of manufacturing. There is no “boom”
- gigatexal 4y agoWill this be like the commodities surge in Australia that had truckers and miners making > 100k with the equivalent of HS diplomas because the demand from China for such materials was so high only for the whole thing to collapse when demand fell?