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Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

• troon-lover 4y ago
• bpodgursky 4y ago
  Belgium just shut down a functional nuclear reactor: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Belgium-To-Shut-Nuclear-Reactor-On-Friday-Amid-Energy-Crunch.html https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Belgium-T...
  • pennaMan 4y ago
    Just..... Why? This is so balatanly stupid I can't find my words..
    • nxm 4y ago
      Because “green energy”
      • orwin 4y ago
        It's not, its because it reached end of life, and the date we could've done something about it was ten years ago. I'm as pro-nuclear as you can be, since at least 2017 but especially since i've read about it, in 2019, but let's not blame nuclear failure on "green energy" when it's not. Nuclear tech have been abandonned by the general public and the politician since the 90s, and especailly after fuckushima, was faded by the society. It has nothing to do with green energy. Maybe Greepeace is at fault, but this is probably one of the most corrupt environmentalist NGO anyway, so i doubt serious people listen to them.
        • k__ 4y ago
          Yes. We see how "well" it goes in France, where they kept nuclear going and now their reactors are rotting away under their butts and they have to import from Germany. Life in Europe would be better if conservatives wouldn't have failed us and we actually had "green energy" by now...
          • TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
            So we could have rolling blackouts sooner, because without storage to sort out intermittencies and without gas they are inevitable.
          • orwin 4y ago
            Actually, the nuclear situation in France is the exact same as Belgium, with the same causes, except in 2010 some investment were made to make the plant last twenty more years. Those investments weren't done between 2019 and 2022, for multiple reasons but with one base: the general public don't really care, nor like talking about nuclear plant. Conservatives have nothing to do with this, as they weren't really in power since 2012. Energy is a complex issue, probably the most complex societal, technical and social issue we have, and trying to put everything on one single actor (or movement) do not make the discussion constructive. I'm for a diverse mix and reducing gas, oil and coal, not in percentage but in actual quantity (we don't really do this in europe sadly).
    • Symbiote 4y ago
      The 40 year license expires by the end of this year, and an extension wasn't granted. Someone who can read Belgian news will need to explain why the license extension wasn't granted, and whether that makes sense.
      • pg314 4y ago
        In 1999, to obtain the participation of the greens in the government, the other parties agreed to the closing of nuclear reactors after 40 years of operation [1]. 2022 seemed like a long time away at the time, especially in politics. In 2012, small cracks were discovered in the pressure vessels of a number of reactors, introduced by hydrogen during the casting of the steel. That was grist on the mill of the anti-nuclear lobby. According to the expert reports, the vessels should be ok (there are some links to English reports on the nuclear safety agency website [2]), but it is easy to fear-monger when nuclear energy is involved. That seemed to have sealed the fate of the nuclear reactors. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_phase-out#Belgium https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_phase-out#Belgiu... [2] https://fanc.fgov.be/nl/dossiers/kerncentrales-belgie/actualiteit/foutindicaties-de-stalen-wanden-van-de-reactorvaten-van https://fanc.fgov.be/nl/dossiers/kerncentrales-belgie/actual...
    • astra90 4y ago
      In 2003, the Belgian government decided to stop producing nuclear energy, mostly driven by the Green party. They introduced a law that contained a schedule to shut down a number of nuclear power plants in the country. In 2015 the government already extended the lifespan of 2 nuclear power plants. However, the power plant that was just shut down (Doel 3) did not get an extension of lifespan and so it has been shut down according to the initial law introduced in 2003. It's an understatement to say it's unfortunate that it has been shut during an energy crisis.
      • baobabKoodaa 4y ago
        Let me get this straight... Politicians wrote a schedule in 2003. According to the schedule, this particular plant should be shut down now. And we have people in this thread (not you) claiming that there are "technical reasons" why the plant has to be shut down right now, not after this winter. So, by pure coincidence, politicians in 2003 just happened to predict the exact date 19 years in the future when it would no longer be technically feasible to operate the plant? The exact date! Can I please have these same politicians predict next week's lottery numbers for me?
        • toast0 4y ago
          When you have a planned shutdown date, you stop doing maintenance work that is needed to continue operating after that date. Maybe there's some leeway, maybe there isn't. Depends on how much maintenance was skipped, and how much maintenance is required de jure and how much maintenance is required de facto. Ideally, on the day after planned shutdown, your reactor would be in need of refueling, and all the other large maintenance items; and you wouldn't have the parts on hand to do it. 19 years is plenty of time to align the schedules.
          • _ph_ 4y ago
            That is the same issue with the idea of keeping the German reactors running. Everything has been planned with the scheduled stop of operations at the end of the year. After politics is now considering to keep them running, the whole technical challenges come to the the light. Take the one reactor operating still in Bavaria: the fuel rods are so weak that after November the plant cannot be restarted with these fuel rods. Also, there is a leaking valve which soon has to be repaired. Only optinon now is to shut the reactor down, repair the valve and restart ist. But even then, the operation isn't guaranteed, as reactors often have to be shut down for small incidents. But any of those would mean the stop of the operation of the reactor. One way or the other, the next time this plant shuts down after November, it stays down. So there is no big hope of this plant operating for much longer any way you turn it. Of course, new fuel rods could be ordered, but probably that would take over a year, as far as I know. Which means, it will not be part of the energy supply for the next 12 months and whether the investment into getting new fuel rods and keeping the plant ready for service for another year is worth it, is another question.
    • elric 4y ago
      Why? Because the reactor was ancient and decrepit. It doesn't help that the power plant in question was badly damaged by a saboteur a few years ago. A saboteur who was never caught nor identified.
  • nebalee 4y ago
    https://taketonews.com/engie-repeats-message-after-open-letter-from-staff-doel-3-and-tihange-2-further-extension-is-not-possible-instagram-vtm-news/ https://taketonews.com/engie-repeats-message-after-open-lett... “The closing dates are determined by law and the licenses to operate the power plants end on those dates. That has been established for a long time and we have been preparing for that for a long time.” The government did ask Engie in July to see whether both reactors could possibly continue for a few more months to bridge the difficult winter, but according to the French energy group, that is unfeasible both technically and in terms of safety.
    • koheripbal 4y ago
      Germany tried to make the exact same claim this year about their three remaining plants - but the nuclear engineers running the plants were brave enough to say the gov't was lying. ...not that it mattered because the German gov't just doubled down on closing those plants regardless. There is no technical reason they could not have extended their shutdown plans. This is just an unfortunate combination of bureaucratic lethargy and anti-nuclear ideologues.
      • nebalee 4y ago
        > but the nuclear engineers running the plants were brave enough to say the gov't was lying can you provide a link to that?
    • panick21_ 4y ago
      If you only have governments that create regulation that make it impossible to operate then things are impossible to operate.
  • elric 4y ago
    When do you suggest nuclear reactors should be shut down? After they stop being functional? Seems risky. Is the timing unfortunate? Yes. But everything else is just exaggerated. This was a small reactor which was responsible for a tiny amount of production in a tiny country. Should we replace it? Maybe. But then we should have started construction 20 years ago. Given that this didn't happen, the rest of the discussion is somewhat moot. We could probably start replacing it today, but not many nuclear power plants are being built in Europe, costs are insane, and timeframes are so long that no one is willing to invest. There are (somewhat literally) crowd funded suppliers of renewable energy (cooperatives like Ecopower.be). Perhaps someone should start something similar for nukes.
    • panick21_ 4y ago
      This reactor could have continued to run for a long time. It should be should down only if continued running it is more expensive then a complete rebuild of a base load that can replace it (not just a wind farm, but long term storage as well). This is really a tragedy.
    • emmelaich 4y ago
      5% of Belgium's power doesn't seem tiny to me.
• roenxi 4y ago
  This is exactly the wrong moment to be deciding policy by tweetstorm. These issues require an engineering report to digest, not soundbites. This person may not intend to produce soundbites, but if it makes a good Twitter chain it is a string of sound bites. I can't distinguish this thread from one of those crazy-lists people sometimes put together. It is too disjointed and lacks citations or developed thoughts.
  • jtbayly 4y ago
    I just read the screenshots of an actual article at the top. I mean, why isn't that article what was linked to? Ugh. I hate Twitter.
  • libertine 4y ago
    Or at least we have to assume that the people that managed to make the feat that he boasts about, know what they are doing: >The European electricity grid is a modern miracle. It is the largest synchronous electrical grid (by connected power) in the world. It interconnects 520 million end-customers in 32 countries, including non-European Union members such as Morocco or Turkey. But then he makes a sharp turn to: >Here is the thing. The grid builds on physics, not ideology.(...) ...So is the grid a feat of engineering, or ideology? Haven't the decision makers being in contact with the ones who built and maintain this "modern miracle"? Or was this modern miracle the product of pure luck? To end up on: >What am I trying to explain? >Europe will NOT deliver on its climate targets. >The energy transition is an order of mangnitude more complex than laws or ideology allow for. Accept. Ok.
    • hef19898 4y ago
      Aparently those people creating the grid have been replaced, at all levels, by ideological do gooders led by politicians with the sole goal of ruining industry and living standards. According to authors like the one who's article we are discussing.
      • libertine 4y ago
• pjmlp 4y ago
  And in the mist of this chaos they want everyone to switch to electric cars, how do they plan to charge them?
  • rat87 4y ago
    With electricity What a silly comment. The switch over to an electric cars is a multi year process that will take at least until 2030 just for new cars. The current problems won't last nearlt that long
    • pjmlp 4y ago
      Someone forgot the laws of physics regarding electricy production for the amount of cars in transit.
      • lostlogin 4y ago
        Petrol prices rising are part of this crisis too. Most EVs are charged over night, when grid usage is low. Doesn’t that maximise the use of a strained system?
        • pjmlp 4y ago
          Most countries need their electrical heaters and cooking stoves as well during the night.
          • panick21_ 4y ago
            Yes but lights are turned off, factories are turned off, trains aren't running and many other things as well. And most people don't cook during the night.
            • pjmlp 4y ago
              Still not enought to power all cars during the night, given the charging time. Anyway that isn't an issue, because only a few elected ones can charge their Teslas on their private parkings.
• sschueller 4y ago
  Here is what Switzerland is doing at the moment to prevent the worst case which would be rolling black outs. They are planning for the worst case so they don't get caught with their pants down. This includes: - Currently trying to fill as many reservoirs as possible - Securing gas in foreign reservoirs. - Plan for emergency gas plants that can be operational by January/February, the time Switzerland has the least electricity available. - Legal framework to deal with energy shortage such as deciding which industry is considered essential and what kind of compensation would be provided for those that get shut off if it gets to this. - The SBB is calculating how much electricity they can save by reducing trains and also piping power into homes instead of trains. From what I heard, current calculations show reducing service by 30% only saves around 10% electricity. They also put out a plan which starts with asking people to use less electricity to worst case which would be planned 4 hour rolling blackouts. Peoples' homes not getting electricity will be the last resort and unlikely as large industries will be asked first to stop producing and take the government money. Switzerland produces more electricity per year than it needs. The issue is that the amounts don't line up so they export excess and import when they don't have enough.
  • bombcar 4y ago
    I wonder if it is cost effective going forward to install two meters and panels on every house with one being “essential” and the other being “intermittent” so the power company has the option of blacking out the intermittent boxes only. I’d rather have all my computers, lights, etc shut down than my whole house.
    • Someone 4y ago
      Firstly, how would you keep consumers honest about what’s essential? Secondly, I think “essential” will depend on the duration of the blackout. For a blackout of a few hours, keeping WiFi running so that work from home can continue probably is more essential than heating a water boiler. If the blackout takes a few days, that may change.
      • bombcar 4y ago
• flohofwoe 4y ago
  • j-bos 4y ago
    Digestable topics involving tech, math, and logistics are usually interesting to the hn crowd? Intersting topics often get front page.
  • masswerk 4y ago
    No, this is another agenda, if any. Energy crisis scare was already around last winter. BTW, phasing out nuclear power plants without a suitable replacement in the high demand segment is actually a problem, which is only elevated by the problems with natural gas imports.
  • jopnv 4y ago
    How can it be a scare when it is currently happening?
  • mardifoufs 4y ago
    Why do comments like these only pop up on articles that highlight problems in europe? I never see them in the hundreds of articles per month that focus on the US. It's weird because that is exactly the type of comment you used to read from fragile patriotic americans that were unable to handle any criticism back in the early 2000s, but this time from europeans.
    • qsdf38100 4y ago
      Because social media is currently under MASSIVE attack from Russian trolls. And then there are people doing it for free, because their are easily manipulated or because they think they’d benefit from Russian puppets taking over their country… I wonder on which side you are.
      • mardifoufs 4y ago
        What do you mean? Even if we ignore the "you are with us or with the terrorists" tone of your comment (that kind of prove my point) it still does not make sense. Where are the accusations of Russian bots/dinsfo on articles about American healthcare, or wealth inequality or gun violence in the US? Because those are also subjects that can be exploited by foreign powers in an effort to destabilize the US. In fact, tons of europeans online love, love to highlight and amplify those exact issues, so I guess they are exploited by russian propaganda too? Or is it only europeans that get to use that as an excuse to deflect criticism and discussion about their internal issues?
• fxtentacle 4y ago
  Most likely, Italy and eastern Europe, who are net importers. Germany is a net exporter, so they would only have blackouts out of solidarity.
  • lultimouomo 4y ago
    Blackouts wouldn't happen when wind and solar are plenty, which is when Germany is exporting. They would happen on windless rainy day, during which Germany is importing electricity.
  • jotm 4y ago
    What Eastern Europe? Romania (pretty balanced and not reliant on gas) and Poland (mostly coal, locally mined) are self sufficient. Baltics maybe?
    • tomwojcik 4y ago
      Re Poland locally mined - i dont know wtf went wrong but we went from having huge reserves to buying from India within a year... A lot of homes rely on coal to be available by the time the winter comes and apparently they are left with nothing. People stand in line for a few days (literally, husband/wife/kid rotation in the queue) just to get the ticket for the coal. The ticket guarantees you to get the coal once the previous orders are filled. My friends waited in such queue a few weeks ago. Eta for coal delivery for a private household if you went through all this hussle: April.
      • rightbyte 4y ago
        When the Covid hoarding panic set in someone bought all yeast in my local super market. Couldn't get any for weeks becouse people started hoarding when it hit the shelves. I guess some of your neighbours have years worth of coal ... and toilet paper, of course.
    • argulane 4y ago
      Baltics are mostly self-sufficient. But the problem is that baltic countries are still syncronized to the russian grid. Russians could disconnect us any time and make our power grid unstable until we sync up with rest of the Europe. https://news.err.ee/1608726511/estonia-grid-connected-to-europe-in-12-hours-in-event-of-russia-blackout https://news.err.ee/1608726511/estonia-grid-connected-to-eur...
• hef19898 4y ago
  It is so funny to see all those anti-renewable lobbiests come out of the woods everybtime something happens with regard to energy that can be, somehow, blamed on renewables. Previously it was the fossil fuel lobby, now it is the pro nuclear lobby. All predict doom, everytime. And all of those fail to properly analyse the way electricity is priced on the European market, and then start looking at those special causes, French lower then expected nuclear capacity, a screwed up gas market among other things.
  • retinaros 4y ago
    lower than expected capacity because macron wanted to go away from nuclear five year ago. what do you think the shareholders of french nuclear and energy company wanted when they heard that? to reduce cost, hires, maintenance. the government is to blame for everything happening in france for abidding to the green party that were fed russian propaganda about renewable energies such as solars that just have renewable the name (cheap solar panel made in china using gas and with a life of 10-20years) not the pro nuclear lobby.
    • hef19898 4y ago
      Oh, so it is some politians fault that power plant operators screw up maintenance? PV and wind, using Chinese modules, outbid nuclear already in 2017 (?), being cheaper then Hinkley C. Never mind where we vet nuclear fuel rods from, right? Plus the fact that the summer heat wave and drought had negative effects on power plant output, not for the first time, due to limited cooling capacities. But hey, the current political climate is great to turn that into a "we are all gonna freeze in the darkness of winter" narrative, one thatt is easily highjacked by populist movements. Movements, I have to remind everyone, that are, and have been, manipulated by Russia. It is the German greens that oush for more weapons for Ukraine and extensions for nuclear power plants. It doesn't get anymore real politik than that.
      • ohgodplsno 4y ago
        What you are saying is both inaccurate and lies. >Oh, so it is some politians fault that power plant operators screw up maintenance? Firstly, EDF, the french operator for nuclear power plants belongs to 80+% to the state. So, first off: fucking yes it is, especially when said politicians have spent the last 20 years not investing in their plants, despite the insane work that EDF has done. Reminder that said politicians are forcing EDF to sell 120TWh worth of electricity to "alternative providers", who are currently kicking out their customers to just make money selling that electricity back on the market.. Secondly, maintenance was delayed by Covid, a once in a century event, and two years worth of delay is remarkably short. Thirdly, due to said politicians continuous non-maintenance of the nuclear sector, there are indeed very few people able to maintain said reactors. Surprising isn't it ? Spend 20 years saying nuclear is shit and should be abandoned (purely because of political plays to win alliances with the greens) and then play surprised when your only source of reliable power doesn't have anyone to maintain it, because what engineer would do the career suicide of going in an industry which is being abandoned ? >PV and wind, using Chinese modules, outbid nuclear already in 2017 (?), Ah yeah, the PV and wind that Germany has installed, that are currently pretty much all not working (https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/DE?utm_source=electricitymap.org&utm_medium=website&utm_campaign=menu https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/DE?utm_source=electrici..., 370gCO2/kWh, up to 510 yesterday, and hasn't gone underneath 300 for the past month) ? Sounds great. Both for people who get to sell their PV that only needs to run for half the year because it literally can't in winter and for the petrol groups that are selling gas to make up for the energy. But sure, they cost less. Don't take into account the insane maintenance costs (have fun changing your turbines every 20 years, they're made of non recyclable material, it's all good), the insane land use (contrary to some beliefs, not every country has surface to waste like the US does), the inconsistency of the production (see: germany). The german greens are, for once in their fucking lives, doing something sensible, both when it comes to Ukraine or nuclear power plants (and they're doing so because they are forced). Don't let that make you forget the past 30 years of decisions that set all of us back.
• kurupt213 4y ago
  It’s hard to be sympathetic when this situation was so obvious and preventable. This is what short term greed and irresponsible governance looks like.
  • hef19898 4y ago
    Us Europeans can still look at Texas, if we want to know how it is properly done, can't we?
    • mardifoufs 4y ago
      Saying the equivalent of "no u" when no one else even brought up the USA is weird but I guess typically european way to deflect criticism . Not that comparing a regional blackout due to exceptional weather conditions, to a continent wide energy shortage cause by policy that has been going on for more than a year now makes any sense. (Even quebec, which is very used to extreme winters, lost electricity for nearly a month back in 1998. On the other hand, I can't think of anything similar to this train wreck situation europe managed to get itself into, not since the 70s at least. So it is a pretty unique fuck up due to very bad policy, and one that's been happening in slow motion)
      • mijoharas 4y ago
        > but I guess typically european way to deflect criticism It'd be great if you didn't lower yourself to name calling as well. (Note: I don't much like the comment you're responding to, but let's be civil here)
        • mardifoufs 4y ago
          You are right. Sorry about that, I didn't mean it to be insulting.
          • hef19898 4y ago
            That makes two...
• polski-g 4y ago
  • de6u99er 4y ago
• emptyfile 4y ago
  Looks important, if only it weren't written in a bunch of twitter posts with GIFs and reaction pics thrown in every paragraph, I might even read it then. Seriously, looks like a 14 year old wrote it. I'm not wasting even 5min to parse it.
• tluyben2 4y ago
  I am happy I got solar earlier this year. I thought it would be very expensive but we are very frugal with energy and it only was 7k euro to go off grid. During the day we can run anything (tons of sun so washing, dish washing, etc etc), during the night less so but we go to bed early (21:00) and get up at 5.
  • bArray 4y ago
    Next investment for you then would be chemical batteries to store power. Given that you are paying in Euros, how do you expect to get enough solar energy over winter?
    • tluyben2 4y ago
      Where I live (Portugal) I already did many winters with solar when renting; I had the generator on a few hours 1 day in 1 year, the rest was enough sun to make it work. Same in Spain when I lived there.
      • quonn 4y ago
        How many square meters solar and how much did you get out of it? Did you use a battery?
  • NKosmatos 4y ago
    Good for you. That’s the best way to go, solar on the roof and batteries down the basement so as to be as independent as possible. Wish I could do the same.
  • nine_zeros 4y ago
    We keep talking about alternative energy's importance in reducing fossil fuel emissions. But here is another example of why alternative energy is so important. It provides diversification from shortages and geopolitical nonsense that can your lifestyle. If you can get solar for yourself, get it while still being connected to the electric grid. You will have a much more reliable energy system than just relying on the grid.
• trasz 4y ago
  It’s sad when you look at China building 20 new reactors at the moment and then comparing to what we have in EU.
  • tmikaeld 4y ago
    While simultaneously investing billions in EU wind-farms [0] [0] https://www.politico.eu/article/chinese-wind-farm-investments-stoke-concerns-in-sweden/ https://www.politico.eu/article/chinese-wind-farm-investment...
    • ZeroGravitas 4y ago
      They built more wind generation, and more solar generation, and more hydro generation than they did nuclear, in their own country. So its not some conspiracy that they were supporting building wind in europe too. They now have the most experience with this cutting edge energy technology.
      • tmikaeld 4y ago
        Good point, I've missed that important topic. Good to see they finally embrace renewables!
• Havoc 4y ago
  Scary, especially in light of the coming winter. This does seem to be ignoring some positives though - German putting some nuclear shutdowns on hold and France is looking like they might get their fleet back on track by beginning 2023 after they sorted out their corrosion issues. UK just fasttracked fracking (sigh) and sizewell C nuclear plant seems to have gotten the go ahead. Quite unfortunate that the writeup is on twitter though. To fix their broken UX you need threadreader and that in turn is broken too: "The table below"...nope no table. Videos broken too. So now you get to cross reference two broken platforms just to figure out what someone is trying to say. sigh...
  • bArray 4y ago
    > German putting some nuclear shutdowns on hold This is precisely what I had been jumping up and down about for years, especially at the beginning of this year. The irony that Germany doesn't want nuclear power internally, yet buys their direct neighbour's nuclear power instead. > France is looking like they might get their fleet back on track by beginning 2023 after they sorted out their corrosion issues Apparently. I doubt it. Too little too late for this winter. > UK just fasttracked fracking (sigh) and sizewell C nuclear plant seems to have gotten the go ahead. I'll take fracking over freezing to death. The alternative is people will burn whatever is not nailed down, and you can bet that would be worse. Sizewell C is too little too late. None of this will make a difference this winter. > Quite unfortunate that the writeup is on twitter though. Something as important as this should be on a news outlet's website. People most definitely need to see it and read it.
    • quonn 4y ago
      Actually Germany usually exports power to France. In fact many of the nuclear plants in France don‘t work, especially this year.
      • koheripbal 4y ago
        "usually" just means when their renewable power happens to be running. French have been using the last few years to do maintenance on their nuclear plants. Going into this winter, Germany will suffer far far more than France.
• NKosmatos 4y ago
  We need more nuclear power plants and we need them yesterday, there is no other mid term solution for the ongoing/coming energy crisis. The problem is that replacing old nuclear power plants (or building new ones) takes many years, time we don’t have… Let’s see how this situation evolves.
  • koheripbal 4y ago
    Good luck with that in Germany. The cabinet member in charge of energy is literally a former Greenpeace executive who doubled down on closing the three remaining plants in Germany THIS YEAR. German is insane.
    • _ph_ 4y ago
      What you write ist plain untrue. The cabinet member who is a former Greenpeace executive is part of the foreign ministry, the job is to talk to other countries about actions against the climate change. In no way is she responsible for the German energy politics. And please refrain from calling a whole country as insane, especially based on wrong information.
      • anm89 4y ago
        So Germany is sane? People freezing to death in the richest country in the EU because it doesn't feel nice to admit that addressing your needs involves tradeoffs doesn't seem very sane to me.
        • _ph_ 4y ago
          Yes, Germany is sane. And no one is freezing to death here. The gas storages are almost filled (91%), so Germany won't run out of gas. I don't know why people need to tell so many lies about the German situtation at the moment. Yes, severe mistakes have been made in the past, mostly to have such a large dependency on Russia. But no need to invent things.
          • 4y ago
• qalmakka 4y ago
  The situation in Italy is bleak - due to widespread NIMBY-ism it's basically impossible to build anything. Even hooking up a LNG FSRU temporarily in an emergency situation like the current one is a monumental feat of burocracy and fighting against everyone and everything. There's a non zero chance that, together with the inevitable far right government that will come out of today's elections, the country will collapse between this and the following winter. Italy is just too dependent from NG, it can't just survive a total loss of supplies from Russia sadly.
  • carlivar 4y ago
    What does the far right government have to do with the "inevitable collapse"? I'm not choosing sides but if the prior government's policies have led to this moment I don't see the logic here. I can imagine there are distasteful things about such leadership, but I'm curious about the economic and NIMBY aspects only.
    • qalmakka 4y ago
      Italy is not in a situation to pull itself out of its problems - it's paralyzed due its chronic political instability and its abysmal political class born out of a dysfunctional system. While the left isn't that great either, the Italian right is among the worst in the continent - sleazy, dishonest, without any trace of a program except outright lies and the desire to grab power, and reform the constitution to establish an authoritarian regime like in Hungary. The truth is that the Italian people have been deeply disgruntled with politics for decades, and are only voting Meloni this time because they've been cyclically protest voting everyone that was in opposition to the last government for the last 30 years, since Berlusconi in 1994. People do not care a bit about her ideas, and I'd be damned if there's more than a single digit percent of her voters that do know a single policy she's pushing for. She simply wasn't in Draghi's government, so she's not the current establishment. If she fails to establish an authoritarian regime in the next few years, she'll be destroyed the next election in favour of someone else. That's how Italian politics work. Italy needs access to credit with EU rates and a strong EU in general to survive - but replacing a widely respected figure (Draghi) with a previously unknown Fascist nostalgic nobody really likes is not really a great way to project your influence in Brussels - quite the opposite. For instance, it's pointless for Italy to push for less sanctions to Russia, because the main pipeline that goes from Russia to Italy passes through several other countries, including Ukraine itself. Italy needs a EU wide NG price cap, fast, or it seriously risks social and economic collapse in the following months. About NIMBY: Italy rejected nuclear power due to widespread fears after Chernobyl that were capitalized by the corrupt political class of the time (a widespread sweep of that system happened in 1992 with the Mani Pulite process, but it was too late). Since then building ANYTHING in Italy immediately causes spontaneous committees of citizens to spring up to protest the realization of the aforementioned structure, infrastructure or public utility. For instance, people have protested in recent years: - against high speed trains, when Italy is a country where basically everything goes on polluting diesel trucks. This opposition delayed the project for years, but now finally Italy has a best in class high speed train service everyone loves. Go figure. - against dumps, waste-to-energy plants, biogas plants, and so on. Nobody wants them close to their area, even though they have to be built somewhere and Italy has a very high population density. Result? Rome is swimming in trash, everywhere, with no solution in sight. Italy is paying foreign countries to take their rubbish, wasting huge amounts of money. Forcing such a project through would mean committing a political suicide for any Italian politician. - against windmills. There are lots of offshore windmill farms that can't be built due to them being eyesores. It doesn't matter that Italy does need those mills desperately - it will still take them 4x the time to be built due to basically EVERYONE suing the state at every possible court up to the ECHR. - against NG pipelines and terminals. The mayor of Piombino, who ironically is from Brothers of Italy, is ferociously opposing docking a FSRU in order to start regasify LNG shipped from the US and Qatar, in order to cover for the supply reduction of Russian gas. It does not matter that it of paramount importance, people are suing the state company and thus delaying the process until the courts clear up the matter. The whole thing is worsened by the fact Italians have been the target of a deluge of fake news on social and conventional media for decades, way before it was a worldwide problem. That's how a media moghul such as Berlusconi got elected in the '90s/'00s in the first place.
• frank_bb 4y ago
• iza 4y ago
  https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1567929340737863680.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1567929340737863680.html
• maCDzP 4y ago
  As a Swede that just went though an election with electricity prices being discussed this is very interesting. Prices in Sweden are at an all time high. I don’t remember this analysis being talked about. The problem was cast mostly as a domestic issue - that’s my take at least. In hindsight I think it was only the left that had a solution that maybe would address this for Sweden at least. They wanted to have domestic and EU-pricing. Then the prices for electricity in EU would become so high that Italy would be forced to act?
  • philjohn 4y ago
    Always be wary a political party promising solutions to situations outside their control ...
  • rasz 4y ago
    Its the other way around. countries relying on gas for electricity like Italy are the source of EU problem right now.
  • Gud 4y ago
    The left created this mess to begin with. They shut down multiple functioning nuclear power plants in the south of Sweden where the energy is needed the most.
  • jopsen 4y ago
    > They wanted to have domestic and EU-pricing. But would it be legal? That kind of protectionism would definitely run counter to the ideals if the EU common market. It's hard to know what EU countries might do, but during covid the EU avoided protectionism when it came to vaccines. Of course, it could be different this time.
    • rightbyte 4y ago
      > It's hard to know what EU countries might do, but during covid the EU avoided protectionism when it came to vaccines. There was A LOT of backstabbing in the beginning regarding medical supplies. Landlocked countries got screwed in transit. Even Red Cross aid was confiscated. Thankfully the panic only lasted about one two weeks or something.
• locallost 4y ago
  I read the whole thread. At one point he goes on and on how France is shaky because their nuclear plants are offline caused by corrosion issues etc. On the very next tweet he blasts Germany for prematurely shutting down "the most reliable energy source nuclear". Well if they're reliable, why is France in this world of hurt right now? I agree about one thing, and that it really is a perfect storm of issues, and that the winter will be very rough. I hope it brings a needed change in a lot of ways. The part about renewables requiring trillions in investment to replace nuclear I didn't get at all - they're the cheapest possible solution. New nuclear that is needed would be even worse. If he thinks they're expensive, don't know what else is there. My guess is that renewables will continue to be a huge winner, especially in this crisis. Even Macron came out a couple days ago and said France needs to build more renewable capacity and ease regulations and remove road blocks. That was a huge shock for me.
  • izacus 4y ago
    > Well if they're reliable, why is France in this world of hurt right now? This an exceedingly intellectually lazy argument which shows that you're either horribly biased (and never engaged with the reading material properly) or didn't even spend a minute thinking through what you're asking. It's somewhere on the level of "well, why is there snow in New York if global warming is happening HUUUUH?!". (Not to mention that the French nukes are in process of being started already.)
    • zh3 4y ago
      Erm, EDF. I'm in favour of nuclear, but EDF/Hinckley Point are how not to do it (I think the only residential consumers they have left have failed to do any sort of shopping around/don't care about the cost - very possibly different for business/vested interests).
      • pjerem 4y ago
        That’s not the whole story. EDF is a very competent company which have everything needed to provide cheap electricity to the whole country while making money. The point is (and I think it’s a scandal) that EDF is forced, by law, to resell its nuclear electricity to its competitors at an under the market price. EDF is also required to offer an electricity plan with a law fixed price. Which is a good thing because historically, it allowed end users not to suffer from market price fluctuations. Now what is happening is that all those fake competitors that did resell EDF electricity cheaper than EDF offerings, took their margin for more than a decade and are now asking their customer to unsubscribe and to go back to the EDF fixed-by-law offer.
• thrown_22 4y ago
  There are far too many people who don't understand the difference between power and energy. If you give me a lump of coal you give me power. If I burn that coal I get power. Renewable energy is cheap. Renewable power isn't. Nuclear energy is expensive. Nuclear power isn't. You can't run a modern economy on renewables because you can't turn off society when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow. Europe is now learning this painful lesson.
  • khariel 4y ago
    > If you give me a lump of coal you give me power. Did you mean energy here?
  • phicoh 4y ago
    Typical nuclear fanboy. Nobody is running on renewables. Well, there are some exceptions. Countries like Norway and Sweden have enough hydro that they do run on renewables. But ignoring those, nobody does. Wind and solar pairs well with natural gas. Coming from a fossil fuel situation, wind and solar paired with gas have the big advantage that you get a reliable system, easy reduction of CO2 by adding more wind and solar. And it is cheap. New nuclear is not cheap (compared to Russian gas). Of course where this failed was in the gas part. Obviously, wind and solar need to be blamed for the lack of Russian gas. Same with Texas, when something goes wrong, blame renewables. The obvious problem, for both renewables and for nuclear is cheap fossil fuel. Expensive fossil fuel might make nuclear attractive. Expensive fossil fuel will result in a focus on storage. But before that, most EU countries need a lot more wind and solar before they can focus on storage. There is no point in focusing on storage if output of renewables can't keep up with demand.
  • jopsen 4y ago
    Won't you just need 10x capacity spread over a large area with good transfer connections. Maybe, a but if pumped hydro, some batteries, and power intensive industries running only when power is cheap? (Not that nuclear wouldn't be nice, it's just never quick fix)
    • thrown_22 4y ago
• jhoechtl 4y ago
  I carefully read many of the well recherched comments. My take-away: Green parties all over Europe were in dictatorship of the accepted moral public opinion, making fun of counter arguments and led Europe (just Germany?) into the missery they are in now.
  • thoughtstheseus 4y ago
    Mostly Germany. France has a diversified national energy strategy of nuclear and gas from many areas.
    • _ph_ 4y ago
      And yet it was Germany which through this summer increased the power generation and exports to replace the missing French nuclear power in the European grid and keep it stable.
      • thoughtstheseus 4y ago
        Europe is saving its non-gas power generation for when they lose gas access.. That seems like an ok approach
• chironjit 4y ago
  Every nuclear proponent in this page conveniently glossing over a significant issue: Nuclear waste disposal.. To quote a german article from 2020: "If nuclear waste can actually be disposed at the new facility starting 2050, that would still put Germany in the international vanguard: 70 years after humankind began using nuclear energy, not a single permanent waste storage site has been officially opened anywhere in the world." Source:https://dw.com/en/germany-launches-new-search-for-permanent-nuclear-waste-disposal-site/a-55077967 https://dw.com/en/germany-launches-new-search-for-permanent-...
  • sascha_sl 4y ago
    Finland will have one operational next year. [1] That aside, even in a worst case scenario, nuclear waste destroys local ecosystems. That cost would still be worthwhile if we can prevent the destruction of the global ecosystem. We're at a stage of impeding global disaster that I'd rather have a 50km exclusion zone around Asse (or whatever other site) than not being carbon neutral or negative. But then again, nuclear waste disposal is mostly an unsolved problem because it's expensive - and the resources aren't being allocated to it because it's not seen as a priority, not because it's impossible. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onkalo_spent_nuclear_fuel_repository https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onkalo_spent_nuclear_fuel_repo...
    • krageon 4y ago
      It is not worth destroying ecosystems for a little more power, local or otherwise. That kind of thinking is what got us to our current day, with everything going to shit.
      • sascha_sl 4y ago
        Please. I was strictly speaking about the worst case outcome. You know, game theory. And also, we're not talking about "a little more power".
    • Ekaros 4y ago
      Wouldn't a proper exclusion zone actually be a carbon sink? Meaning good for climate?
• michaelwww 4y ago
  One day I noticed I only had a jar of mayo in the fridge so I decided to do an experiment and turn my refrigerator off. I cut my electricity bill in half. I'm able to get by on food that doesn't need to be refrigerated.
  • llampx 4y ago
    Between this and burning wood for heating, we really are going back to the middle ages in Europe.
• pvaldes 4y ago
  Europe is big. Maybe not everybody needs to pass this winter in Swedden. Maybe the governments should start programs to help some vulnerable groups of people, elders for example, to pass the winter in the South. Elders and remote workers living for a two or three months in a warmer place would save energy. Not necessarily at 50m of a beach or in a five stars hotel; the Mediterranean is full of empty houses in November. They even have some Russian palaces that are casually empty now. As long as is a voluntary program, promoting "migration" of a percentage of people between Mediterranean and Northern European countries, in the worst months of winter could be part of the solution.
  • krageon 4y ago
    I was ready to be upset at this, but actually it's not such a bad idea. It's a single shared flight for one person and you get heating for months in return. There is no universe in which this doesn't make sense.
    • pvaldes 4y ago
      Some footnotes for remote workers intrigued by the idea You still will need some heating, because houses designed for hot places typically lack isolation layers. But is raising the temperature of your home from 5 to 20C, not from -35 to 20. Many low places out of the touristic areas are too hot in summer, but warm in winter. High places and the inner part of the country can be very cold, of course but much best insulated. Put 10Km or more between you and the sea. This will avoid the most touristic areas (more expensive, much more noisier, and filled with hormonally rabid adolescents). You will still have the benefit of the beach at a few minutes but none of the drunktards that feel the need to sing the Macarena at 4:AM. Don't rent anything built in or near a dry riverbed. Ever. Today is forbidden to built in flooding areas, but in the past they were much more relaxed in that sense. Just because it floods only each ten years does not mean that is not just this year. Elder people in small villages of Spain, Portugal France or Greece will not speak English. Younger may speak. More or less. Crime levels will be typically low and the places are safe, but expect a lot of crimes against the Anglish language and much head scratching, huhs and ohs if you speak it. Use google translate. Check if the internet connection is reasonable also.
• hevisko 4y ago
  Please get the terminology correct: It's called LOADSHEDDING We in South Africa are used to that term for the past 8+years - phrase/term coined by Eskom!