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The Coming Food Catastrophe
- Melatonic 4y agoNot a bad article but this is just a short term problem in a world with potentially much bigger long term food issues. Mega factory farming of monoculture crops covered without rotation or though for the health of the soil and environment and the insects and birds that support it all is going to really screw us long term.
- abrichr 4y agoUnpaywalled: https://archive.is/hobUN https://archive.is/hobUN
- lordnacho 4y agoSounds like there's a big potential for upheavals similar to the Arab Spring. A fair number of countries subsidize food for their citizens, and if they can't get their hands on any, there's going to be issues. I wonder which countries are most at risk? I read somewhere that the Arab countries get a lot of Ukrainian wheat.
- christkv 4y agoAny country not self sufficient and with no capital to outbid the other starving nations.
- lawn 4y agoAfrica and the middle east.
- simonh 4y agoThat’s probably mainly due to low shipping costs due to proximity (in the grand scheme of things). There is scope for substitution with supplies from elsewhere in the world, if those supplies can be freed up from their usual end use. Biodiesel, cattle feed, etc. Here in the UK restrictions on labelling sunflower oil now mean it’s acceptable to adulterate it with other oils. My family has switched to using rapeseed oil where we can (except for deep frying, it stinks). I’d recommend eating less meat even if that means eating more grain products, it’s a more efficient use of the resource. For the well off we can weather this just fine, but we can still help by reducing our use of the scarcest resources.
- jtbayly 4y agoIt's not really as much about freeing up the supplies as much as it is about whether or not the supply chain can ship that food from someplace else. From what I've read, we don't have nearly as much of a food problem as we do a food shipping problem.
- shagie 4y agoIts not (only) a low shipping cost but also includes a "government keeps food prices low". https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-02/war-choking-off-wheat-leaves-middle-east-buyers-most-vulnerable https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-02/war-choki... > A subsidized flatbread loaf in Egypt sells for the equivalent of about 1 U.S. cent. The country allocates five loaves a day to people in the program and uses the public treasury to compensate bakers for their losses. > An attempt in the late 1970s by then-President Anwar Sadat to end subsidies on basic foodstuffs triggered riots that left more than 80 people dead, so the government since has resorted to workarounds such as shrinking the size of loaves. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/egypt-eyes-bread-subsidy-overhaul-global-inflation-bites-2022-02-01/ https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/egypt-eyes-bread-s... > CAIRO, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Egypt is considering replacing a popular bread subsidy with cash payments for the poor to protect the budget from soaring global wheat prices, but domestic inflation and a history of protests could make the government opt for a less ambitious reform. > Under the existing program, more than 60 million Egyptians, or nearly two thirds of the population, get 5 loaves of round bread daily for 50 cents a month, little changed since countrywide "bread riots" prevented a price hike in the 1970s.
- Amezarak 4y agoRapeseed soil is much worse for you.
- namdnay 4y agoI'm not sure why sunflower oil is so popular. Olive oil is much nicer for anything that isn't going to be deep-fried, and peanut oil is much better for frying (more saturated fats = more crispiness).
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- elEpHantiaSis 4y ago[dead]
- mullingitover 4y agoThis guy has a vested interest in convincing people we’re in for a rough year or two.
- woojoo666 4y agoI don't see them selling anything, just a Patreon and some referral links. If that's considered some dark ulterior motive, then you also wouldn't be able to trust most youtubers (Veritasium, CPG Grey, MinutePhysics, etc)
- ImPostingOnHN 4y agonot to speak of individuals like those listed, but you cannot, in fact, trust most youtubers the vast majority of them have no independent editorial team with a track record of credibility
- woojoo666 4y agoI'm well aware of the general quality (or lack thereof) on Youtube, but that's why I gave a few examples of good Youtubers that also use patreon/referral links. Point being, I don't see a good reason to specifically call out iceagefarmer for having vested interest in saying what they say
- ImPostingOnHN 4y agoit sounds like you and I agree with each other :)
- mullingitover 4y agoThere's a direct ask for support in the form of paypal donations right there on the linked page. He also funnels traffic to his youtube, where he has well over a quarter million subscribers. He has quite a cottage industry selling doom prepper news.
- 0xbadc0de5 4y agoMight also be worth examining the amount of crop grown, then subsequently burned in the U.S. Somewhere between 25% to 40% of corn in the U.S., up to 20% of agriculture land is devoted to ethanol production. If food production is a growing concern, it seems strange that so much agricultural production is spent on non-food producing activities.
- Scoundreller 4y agoI think it’s something like 75% of soy and corn go to ethanol and animal feed (which loses most of the nutrients in the process just to inefficiently concentrate some bits).
- namdnay 4y agoWhy "also"? Ethanol production is the number one cause identified in the article..
- onlyrealcuzzo 4y agoConsidering that the US alone could feed another 800M people with just the grains that go to feed cattle - the idea that we're going to run out of food any time soon is strange.
- daenz 4y agoThe sky is falling and we're all going to die! Get to the end of the story Subscribe today for just $19.90 $10/first month. Cancel at any time
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- blowski 4y agoIs there any topic on which we’re not currently facing a catastrophe? In the last few months I’ve been warned about impending doom for insects, food, nuclear weapons treaties, democracy, the economy, the internet, space, the environment, the arctic circle, abortion rights.
- chaps 4y agoThe point stands equally true for those catastrophes as well.
- edmcnulty101 4y agoDon't forget drought, flooding, gasoline, job bubbles, job collapse, censorship, housing, chip shortages, etc. Nothing can be just 'news'. Its all framed as a signal of collapse.
- freeone3000 4y agoThere once was a boy keeping watch. He cried out "Wolf! wolf!" And the villagers came, and saw the wolf was quite far away, and not a danger yet. The next night, the boy cried out "Wolf! Wolf!" And while the wolf was at the gate, it didn't seem to be hurting anybody. After all, the boy and his village were fine still, and there could be benefits to the wolf. The third night, the boy did not cry wolf. The villagers discovered him dead the next morning next to the village free-range wolf. A great meeting was held, and it was decided that since most people were safe and secure and able to live their lives normally, we must all adapt to the new normal and learn to live with the wolf.
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- pupppet 4y agoArticle photo is pretty badass.
- SKILNER 4y agoIf you follow The Economist they consistently have very clever artists.
- CamelCaseName 4y agoThe Economist is the only news publication I pay for, I do wish they were more economics focused (as opposed to politics, though of course the two are fundamentally intertwined). Any other publications (paid or free) I should be looking at?
- systemvoltage 4y agohttps://www.spectator.co.uk/ https://www.spectator.co.uk/ Also UK-based.
- namdnay 4y agoreally? at least 50% of any given issue is concentrated on business/eocnomics. A few weeks back half the magazine was a deep dive into the expanding role of central banks
- xwdv 4y agoAt first I merely skimmed and didn’t think much of it, then after reading your post I looked closer. The horror.
- sydthrowaway 4y agoIt is clear that Putin needs to go. By any means necessary.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- perardi 4y agoI am a Putin hater through and through… …but be reallllll careful thinking through the consequences of “any means necessary”, because a lot of those means end in a huge escalation of the conflict which further reduces access to minerals and food. (And, like, human lives.)
- MaanuAir 4y agoAnd? What’s the rest of the plan? I hear people saying that, but this is very short term with no sustainable strategy. Just genuinely pointing out he could be replaced by worse options, and you need to plan against it as well. There is the guy, the system he built, the persons he chose to put in place, all incentivised to continue.
- megous 4y agoI'm pretty sure this fear of change at the helm is something all dictators will happily project out ("look, without me there will be chaos or worse"). It's likely not true. It's really impossible to predict what will happen once Putin is gone. He'll die anyway sooner or later, and there will be a struggle for power regardless. Russia has a constitution, and article 81 describes how to get a new president via elections. Current paranoid leader is waging major war and isolating the country, so it's hard to say what could be worse for the world. Maybe mobilization in Russia, but that may be a tough call for any newcomer.
- dotopotoro 4y agoYou are right. Add to that, the constant and persistent info flow from russian media and incentives to “say the right things”, which raised whole generation.
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- wavesounds 4y agoWe should stop growing corn for ethanol since it's worse for the climate than gasoline[1] and instead use all that land and machinery to grow wheat instead. 1. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/us-corn-based-ethanol-worse-climate-than-gasoline-study-finds-2022-02-14/ https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/us-corn-based-e...
- shadowgovt 4y agoHow fungible are wheat and corn crops?
- jeremyjh 4y agoThis is like asking how fungible are calories. People with the means to mill and cook with wheat flour can probably manage with corn too if the alternative is starvation.
- shadowgovt 4y agoI don't mean on the consumption side. I mean on the production side. Do they grow in the same soil? Do they take the same nutrients? Do they have the same water / sunlight / temperature band tolerances? Looks like that rotation is pretty common but there are some details to concern oneself with. https://extension.okstate.edu/fact-sheets/considerations-when-rotating-wheat-behind-corn.html https://extension.okstate.edu/fact-sheets/considerations-whe...
- colechristensen 4y agoCorn is a whole lot more productive, if you can grow it, you do. Wheat grows in places you can't grow corn.
- dredmorbius 4y agoMuch of it boils down to water and/or irrigation. Maize (corn) likes wetter, wheat can stand dryer. In the US the corn belt starts in Ohio and includes eastern Nebraska, wheat is grown largely on the far western plains. Wheat is also a viable winter crop --- fall planting / spring harvest for "winter wheat". That typically means 2 crops a year (winter + summer), and possibly more. Rice is the third staple crop, though it wants a lot of water, and tends to be grown in subtropical climates as with China and India. Other substitutes include barley, oats, millet, etc., though those are far less prevelant than wheat & maize.
- sydthrowaway 4y agoThis is Soylent's time to shine.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- ceejayoz 4y agoOne of Soylent's primary ingredients is sunflower oil, for which the world's largest producer is (drumroll please) Ukraine. Guess who's #2, and under major international sanctioning? Between them, they're about 50% of worldwide production.
- stickfigure 4y agoI assumed parent was referring to the Green variety. The primary ingredient is... abundant.
- PebblesRox 4y agoI have never been able to understand how Soylent has taken off given the name. And I haven't even watched the movie!
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- sudden_dystopia 4y agoYou should probably avoid seed oils anyway.
- TillE 4y agoThis aversion to "seed oils" (a totally made-up, arbitrary category) is one of the weirdest health fads I've seen in recent years, and that's saying something.
- DANK_YACHT 4y ago
- doodlebugging 4y agoFrom doom-scrolling the Ukraine/Russia war it is pretty obvious that Ukrainian farmers have not been idle. Battles are being fought in the treelines and along rivers next to plowed and planted fields. Hopefully some of these crops are harvested and make it to market.
- codezero 4y agoI don't know if it was just propaganda, but I saw several videos of grain being looted by Russian troops and supposedly brought back to Russia. Even if that's not the case, a live war has to decrease productivity immensely.
- mschuster91 4y ago> Hopefully some of these crops are harvested and make it to market. There are unfortunately a lot of problems here which make me seriously pessimistic: - Ukraine will need a lot of the harvest for itself, given how Russians raided crop silos [1] and what they can't raid they bomb to pieces [2] - No one knows if Russian operatives didn't poison crop silos - there are a number of poisons that are very stable in the environment and very hard to detect if you don't know what you are looking for, and Russians have proven over and over that they have an awful lot of skill in dealing with poisons - Russians looted a lot of agricultural machinery, and a lot more got destroyed or seriously damaged - and the Ukrainians repurposed a lot of stuff either to tow off Russian tanks or to convert into technicals - fertilizer is made of natural gas which is in short supply, which in turn will massively impact yields - similar to the post-war situation in Yugoslavia, fields will need to be de-mined extensively, and they need to be cleansed off of shrapnel and fuel - even if there are quantities to export, you need a way to transport them. The railroad track width is different in Ukraine (Russian wide-gauge) and Europe (standard), there aren't many re-trackable cargo wagons, a lot of rail equipment and bridges got blasted by Russians or by Ukrainians for sabotage. God knows in what state the sea ports are, there has been heavy fighting, not to mention the sea mines that are already causing chaos [3] All in all it will be years if not decades until Ukraine can be a serious player on the crop market again. [1] https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/05/europe/russia-ukraine-grain-theft-cmd-intl/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/05/europe/russia-ukraine-gra... [2] https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive-photos-show-russian-attacks-ukraine-grain-storage-us-official-2022-04-01/ https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive-photos-show-russian-... [3] https://www.dw.com/en/experts-warn-black-sea-mines-pose-serious-maritime-threat/a-61334599 https://www.dw.com/en/experts-warn-black-sea-mines-pose-seri...
- leozoucomms 4y ago
- leozoucomms 4y ago
- bell-cot 4y agoTip from an old geezer: Plant Your Victory Garden Now! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victory_garden https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victory_garden
- mbg721 4y agoBut I also have Victory Squirrels taking one bite out of each tomato and moving on...
- SaintGhurka 4y agoThat's your livestock.
- mbg721 4y agoI'ma need a smaller lasso.
- Scoundreller 4y agoI call those sauce or soup tomatoes.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- jahewson 4y agoYou need to get a Victory Cat.
- closedloop129 4y agoHaven't ethanol fuels been introduced to have a buffer for this situation? If we don't turn grain and corn into petrol then there should be some reserves. Additionally, if we stop rising live-stock, where roughly 10 units of plant create one unit of meat, there should be even more calories available.
- codefreeordie 4y agoEnergy is having an even greater supply crunch than food (indeed part of the food shortage is that agricultural inputs can't get delivered in adequate quantities because the energy to transport them doesn't exist). The energy market is willing to outbid the food market, so I wouldn't expect the conversion of agricultural inputs into fuel outputs to decelerate.
- londons_explore 4y agoWhen people run out of money, they prioritize eating over electricity for the TV. Eventually, that effect should bring down the amount that energy companies want to pay for corn. But lots of people might starve first...
- codefreeordie 4y agoYes, but rich westerners will keep paying higher prices for gasoline while people in poor places get outbid for basic survival ration.
- dredmorbius 4y agoOP is speaking to the market level effective demand. Someone who's poor and starving will direct their own very limited economic purchasing power toward food. But the marketas a whole includes those who are wealthy (far fewer in number, but individually having vastly greater purchasing power), who might prioritise energy purchases generally. It's not the poor's own food-vs-energy deceisions, but poor-food vs. rich-energy, which are in play.
- wyager 4y ago
- cabirum 4y ago
- dmarchand90 4y agoOr maybe dictator-Putin shouldn't have started a savage attack on a sovereign nation?
- mschuster91 4y ago> Now, Europe tries to buy out all grain stock that's left No. Europe is pretty much self-sufficient for vital crops. The problem is China [1] and the fact that Africa doesn't have much of its own once famous agricultural power left after decades of European and American "donations" - hard to compete against donated products... [1] https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/China-hoards-over-half-the-world-s-grain-pushing-up-global-prices https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/China-hoards-ove...
- morsch 4y agoThe EU is mostly self sufficient in terms of grains. In most years, there's a trade surplus, in some years a small deficit. https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/a1135630-e8e9-4531-a522-23670f75e2c5/cereals-trade-2017-18-marketing-year-july-december.pdf https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/a1135630-e8e9-4531-a522-23670... 2021/2022 despite the file name
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- xwdv 4y agoIf you have gluten intolerance there’s nothing you should be worried about? Or are these grains necessary for growing meat?
- kn0where 4y agoIf there’s a wheat shortage, people will be eating more rice than usual.
- notacoward 4y agoDon't forget substitution effects. As it turns out, grains are pretty fungible. (Yes, it's nice to be able to use that word in its normal context for once.) As wheat becomes too expensive, demand for others will increase and their prices will spike as well. So yes, gluten intolerant folks will be significantly affected as well.
- Miner49er 4y agoFirst off, the people that mainly will be affected are the poor in poor countries. Most in developed countries will probably be fine. That said, the rise in these grains will likely spill over to other foods, as people turn to substitutes for their calories.
- kpennell 4y agoI think shortage of grain makes for a global food shortage, which causes tons of problems.
- Comevius 4y agoWhat nobody understands is that this is not happening strictly because of the war or the drought, but because of the fragility of the global food system, which simply cannot bear any shocks. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/2/024007 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/2/02... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1712-3 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1712-3 https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/19/banks-collapsed-in-2008-food-system-same-producers-regulators https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/19/banks-... We either fix this or we simply won't have a global food system.
- commandlinefan 4y ago... but the only fix is going to mean higher prices.
- Zenst 4y agoThough that's not going to fix it, just burry those who are already on the edge financially.
- beardedetim 4y agoI think it is but it's worth asking ourselves: is a global fold system worth the trouble we have to go through?
- mrtksn 4y agoI wouldn't argue against the research but to me, the "global food system" is much more robust than I imagined. We stayed in our homes for months en mass without prep time and prior warning and the food availability barely changed. We are creatures that need to eat multiple times a day and yet we can stay in our homes for months and get fed just as well. Therefore I'm not very worried about the management of the food production and distribution, we are extremely good at it. Thanks to the global nature of it, things move quickly and even though a problem in one location can be felt everywhere we don't end up with millions of deaths in that location. I'm really not onboard with "localize everything" motto because everything being local means catastrophic consequences at local issues. What scares me is something biological or ecological happening at global scale. Something that takes at least 6 months to fix for example.
- alecco 4y agoThis article is partisan garbage, as usual lately for The Economist. Sure, the war had an impact but most of the problems were months BEFORE the war. Search for "AgInflation" articles from 2021. I know farmers who skipped this season due to razor thin profits, suppressed prices by governments and major supermarkets, and risk of water controls. Would you put $50k of your money for a 10% return with a very, very high risk of failure? The farmers that did plant, say wheat, are not benefiting from the price surge because to minimize risk they sold their harvest in advance or sold futures. SPECULATORS that are making a killing. Usually hedge funds like Citadel, ETFs by BlackRock, and others. And in several countries farmers are being blamed for higher prices. Governments should've given the sector a bit of help and control risks. Help with water management. Help with shrinking labor base and increasing costs. But nothing is being done. There is a perverse system right now and action needs to be taken to heal the sector. But I bet they'll just keep blaming farmers and impose price controls or suppression of some kind. Fixing farming would take years and populist politicians want magic immediate results and shift-blame. So buckle up.
- lifeisstillgood 4y agoI am not sure how to do it, but some futures-plus arrangement might improve incentives - say sell your crop as a future, but with a (gov supported) price cap - so if the price goes through the roof the farmer gets a share of the overage. Not sure how much difference it will make but agriculture is kind of important
- husainfazel 4y agoYou would think that with a food catastrophe on the way - the current administration's finest minds wouldn't be encouraging even higher corn prices (already at a 10 year high in April) with this mix of legislative action: > Washington announced the EPA will allow a 50% increase in corn-based biodiesel and ethanol fuel mix for the summer. On April 12 the Secretary of Agriculture announced a “bold” initiative by the US Administration to increase the use of domestically-grown corn-ethanol biofuels Or with what I can only call absolutely diabolical sabotage of food production: CF Industries of Deerfield, Illinois, the largest US supplier of nitrogen fertilizers as well as a vital diesel engine additive, issued a press release stating that: "On Friday, April 8, 2022, Union Pacific informed CF Industries without advance notice that it was mandating certain shippers to reduce the volume of private cars on its railroad effective immediately." "The timing of this action by Union Pacific could not come at a worse time for farmers. Not only will fertilizer be delayed by these shipping restrictions, but additional fertilizer needed to complete spring applications may be unable to reach farmers at all. By placing this arbitrary restriction on just a handful of shippers, Union Pacific is jeopardizing farmers’ harvests and increasing the cost of food for consumers." CF has made urgent appeals to the government for remedy, so far with no positive action https://news.sky.com/story/cost-of-living-bank-of-england-governor-warns-of-apocalyptic-food-prices-and-predicts-rise-in-unemployment-12614703 https://news.sky.com/story/cost-of-living-bank-of-england-go... Remember when the apocalyptic food crisis happens, it wasn't an accident OR bad luck, it was planned.
- martincmartin 4y agoTFA talks about that. Before the food crisis was in the news, the energy crisis was in the news.
- AnimalMuppet 4y agoBecause Union Pacific is out to destroy food production? Riiiiight... Or because the government didn't prevent a stupidity from a private company? Never attribute to malice...
- germinalphrase 4y ago
- daenz 4y agoMeta rant: You know a thread is compromised by sock-puppets when "Article photo is pretty badass" is one of the top comments in the thread, ahead of criticisms about the article.
- h2odragon 4y agoI think its twitter refugees. Give 'em a few days, they'll figure out the differences.
- BitwiseFool 4y agoGive 'em a few weeks, this happens every September and it won't last forever. /s
- waffle_ss 4y agoThat's just a typical high noise comment that no longer gets downvoted into oblivion like it used to. It was a top comment due to HN's comment ranking system weighting new comments towards the top for a while.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- troymc 4y ago"Farmers have nowhere to store their next harvest, due to start in late June, which may therefore rot." In Saskatchewan (where I grew up on a farm), when the grain bins get full, some farmers put their grain in shops or sheds normally used for storing farm machinery. Others put it in long giant plastic bags out in their fields. Others build makeshift plywood cylinders on some bare land (such as an already-harvested field). In short, farmers will do what they can to protect their harvests.
- bryanlarsen 4y agoAd hoc storage in Saskatchewan is for fall harvest and over winter storage. Rot isn't a concern when it is cold and dry. In contrast Ukraine plants a higher percentage of fall crops harvesting in the summer and has about twice as much rainfall. Ad hoc storage is much more challenging. They'll try, but they'll lose a lot more crop than a Saskatchewan farmer would.
- mbg721 4y agoIf you're in the West, it doesn't hurt to buy a couple big bags of rice from the local Indian market, and have some dried or canned beans handy, and cycle through them as you cook. A pallet of bottled water and a bag of charcoal don't hurt either. A dumb power outage or a downed wire or a tornado or something is much more likely than Red Dawn, but you'll still be happy to have all that.
- Scoundreller 4y agoI wanna add a solar panel. Having 50 or 100w is going to make my life a lot better than 0w.
- mbg721 4y agoIf you have the setup where you've got that connected and make it work, that's a great idea. The neighbors next to my building have some on their roof--it's not too different from having batteries for your radio.
- ceejayoz 4y agoYou can get 100-ish watt solar panels on Amazon surprisingly cheaply, and they're small enough to take car-camping. https://www.amazon.com/PROGENY-Portable-Kickstand-Flashfish-Generator/dp/B0969Y2KLW/ https://www.amazon.com/PROGENY-Portable-Kickstand-Flashfish-... https://www.amazon.com/Jackery-SolarSaga-Portable-Explorer-Foldable/dp/B07Q71LX84/ https://www.amazon.com/Jackery-SolarSaga-Portable-Explorer-F...
- psd1 4y agoI've just specced up a system to deliver 1-2 KWh per day off-grid, and there are a lot more parts in the system than just the panels. Apart from anything else, if you save on costs by sticking at 12v, you run quite high current. That 100w panel can fuck you up.
- 4y ago
- ProAm 4y agoIsn't this one of the reasons why farm subsidies exist in the US? Paying farmers not to farm so in time of need or emergency we can produce more? (In addition to not over farming soil and depleting it permanently, keeping the price of food in a range to support farmers livelyhood)
- wollsmoth 4y agoyeah, we could possibly engage some of that latent capacity.
- t0bia_s 4y agoGreat opportunity for local businesses.
- 88840-8855 4y agoI am refusing to agree that it is all "Putin's fault". The war is his decision and is not to understand from the normal Western position. However, it is the decision of the West to sanction Russia and to 1) accept increasing energy prices 2) accept a lower fertilizer production 3) break up supply chains even further 4) accept the refugee crisis, the costs of entering this war as a proxy combatant, sending tens of billions to not let the enemy win 5) ... and ultimately win and accept the even worse consequences: pouring billions into a corrupt Ukraine to rebuild it, deal with a terrible unbalanced post-war society (women who came to the West will stay, men will find no women in UA after the war; young people will stay in Europe, while UA population will be much older on average after the war) and finally a Russia crisis that could be something like the "crazy 90s 2.0" or a Russia that broke into many unstable post-Russian republics. I am saying this as a person with UKRANIAN ROOTS. The West has decided to fight for some "Western values" and now all people living here have to accept the costs and long-term consequences.
- vorpalhex 4y agoNo society is ideal, but it is better to help a flawed country than to let a war monger who is violating sovereignty norms act freely. Real life is not a series of choices between good and bad - it is a series of choices between bad and worse.
- 88840-8855 4y agoWe had the chance to open up and help substantially during the crazy 90s when the post-Soviet economies dropped GDPwise to the 1960s/1970s levels, average male life expectancy dropped by 10-12 years, life-savings were destroyed, criminals became ultra-rich and were welcomed in Zurich, New York and London with open arms. We did not. We had the chance to open the EU and NATO towards the Russian in the 00s, even when the Russian came crawling to the Berlin Bundestag and suggested to draw a path towards this direction and were rejected hardly. We had the chance for a compromise, e.g. through the Normandy format when ALL relevant parties agreed more or less except the Americans. This all does not make the invasion right, but it is not as one-sided as the propaganda is showing it here right now. And this is why agree with your statement that real life is not not as simple as "good" and "bad", it is all just bad - on all sides. And just another anecdote. As we are originally from Ukraine, I went down to the border with friends, money and cars and helped people at the border to make the right decisions. We mainly focussed on people withough language skills, old people and people with very very very little money. I had the chance to speak to hundreds of Ukranians crossing the border to the EU. 90% DO NOT CARE who "rules" them. They have their dreams, hopes, they have their apartments, their jobs, their pets, friends, homes... they just want this war to be over - even if Putin "wins". When watching Western news and reports I dont see those opinions represented in the same way I experienced them when talking to people. I see stories about values and democracy and other philosophical stuff - and when they show Ukranians then it is not those who I have met. Where is the opinion of the normal folks that I have met: the war should end asap, no matter who wins. Instead I feel spoon-fed that we HAVE TO PAY THE PRICE for $VALUES. And then you speak to people who have absolutly NO CLUE and NO RELATION to either Ukraine or even Russia and they are so opinionated and SOOOO SURE about the things that must be done and the price that has to be paid. I feel very frustrated and I stopped telling people about my experience at the border or here when volunteering and ACTUALLY speaking to the REAL people.
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- bryanlarsen 4y agoThe article actually has four solutions at the bottom. Compared to the severity of the problem, all four solutions are surprisingly simple. Not necessarily easy, but simple and straightforward. 1. Stop using so much corn to make ethanol. 2. Stop using so much seed oil to make biodiesel. 3. Stop feeding so much food to livestock. Bonus: reducing the livestock population provides short term calories! 4. Break the Black Sea blockade.
- paganel 4y agoRe 4., that's doable if the West renounces some of its existing economic sanctions against Russia, the Russians themselves have said as much recently. It probably won't happen because the West doesn't like to see itself as being involved in the war (in a way similar to what Russia thinks about itself) and will try to resort to "Russia should unlock the blockade purely on humanitarian grounds!", which, of course, is the type of declaration which has no effect during a direct economic war (like the one the West and Russia are now waging against each other, on top of the military proxy war).
- UnFleshedOne 4y agoAnother option for #4 is supplying enough long range anti-ship rockets to sink whole russian fleet in black sea. They can't bring in more ships, because turkey is blocking the entrance.
- paganel 4y agoAnd then you have Russian aviation attacking and sinking Ukrainian merchant ships, plus a couple of submarines.
- nradov 4y agoUkraine doesn't have much of a merchant fleet. Most of their exports travel on foreign bottoms. And foreign ship owners are unwilling to risk entering an active conflict zone, especially because they can't obtain affordable insurance.
- SemanticStrengh 4y agocrops rate can be doubled by using the antioxidant skq1. It's time for humanity to sync with science.
- crawfordcomeaux 4y ago
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- zanethomas 4y ago
- hh3k0 4y agoSeems like you don't know the meaning of "all-in"? That said, if you're desperate for someone to point fingers at, might I suggest Putin’s Russia and her war of aggression?
- smm11 4y agoWe have an economy that uses food for vehicular fuel. We've also politicized a baby formula shortage. Hang onto your hats.
- frank_bb 4y ago
- stakkur 4y agoGrain is at the root of our dietary and other consumption problems. Much of farmland is given over to growing corn for —-corn syrup and variations to put in processed, artificial ‘food’. We can live better, healthier lives without grain.
- AYBABTME 4y agoAll of this makes "World3" / "The Limits to Growth" unpleasantly too prophetic. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth > The simplest useful view of this system is that land and fertilizer are used for farming, and more of either will produce more food. In the context of the model, since land is finite, and industrial output required to produce fertilizer and other agricultural inputs can not keep up with demand, there necessarily will be a food collapse at some point in the future. Another French academic (can't recall his name) gave a recent presentation explaining that our ability to harvest energy is growing slower than our development of new energy resource. This would also inevitably lead to food collapse.
- _yoqn 4y agoThis article is full of unsubstantiated claims and generalities. Not to mention plenty of left-wing talking points. Global warmi--oops! I mean "climate change", etc, etc. It seems like the Economist is running point for the current administration's intentional food crisis. I wonder what freedoms we're now supposed to give up to the government so they can save us from the scary food monster?
- DanHulton 4y agoClimate change is not a "left-wing talking point" it is a fact. And it's no longer called "global warming" because some places will experience colder weather than they are used to due to disturbed weather patterns, and conspiracy theorists will jump on the chance to "disprove" it. But make no mistake, the earth is warming, at a much more rapid pace than ever before, and it is a man-made change.
- _yoqn 4y ago> it is a man-made change Can you substantiate that claim with verifiable evidence? New England used to be under a 10-mile thick ice sheet during the last ice age. I think the Earth has been warming for a very long time. But this isn't only about the climate. The article also mentions COVID-19 shut downs which were mostly pushed by the left. The IMF is mentioned as some sort of savior and is definitely saturated with left wing ideology.
- ImPostingOnHN 4y ago>Can you substantiate that claim with verifiable evidence? to your satisfaction? probably not, but of course that is irrelevant to the satisfaction of those with authoritative knowledge in the field? of course, but it is not necessary, because they are the ones saying it
- gregwebs 4y agoThe statistics that are given in these articles make the situation sound a lot worse than it is. At least in this article they say “traded food”. The point being that less than 10% of global production is traded. The world could survive Ukraine not exporting without too much problem. The big unknown is how many farmers reduced their plantings due to higher fertilizer prices. When you add multiple factors like these together then you really do end up with a food shortage.
- Iwan-Zotow 4y agoContinue with ethanol production, but don't mix it with gas - feed ethanol to humans win-win
- _8j50 4y agoIs there a reason other countries can't fill in the gap left by ukraine and russia ? Plenty of developing agrarian countries right?
- Terry_Roll 4y ago> Russia and Ukraine supply 28% of globally traded wheat, 29% of the barley, 15% of the maize and 75% of the sunflower oil It sounds a lot, it sounds "scary" if you dont know the global crop production figures. China, India & Russia are the largest producers. Ukraine is down in 8th place and only represents something like 3% of global production figures of Wheat, so any shortage will be countries refusing to buy from Russia. Russia will be demanding their payments are made in Roubles. If there is any civil unrest in your country it will be because your media outlets are fuelling you with propaganda. I noted how easily the BBC started a UK fuel shortage last year by abusing their state broadcaster position to misreport and exaggerate the severity of a situation. Don't fall victim to media lies, Trump was right when he said Fake News! LOL
- Cyberthal 4y agoStock up on Soylent powder. I'm drinking mine years past expiration date; seems fine. And like, vitamin-packed. Energy. It's got electrolytes!