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Coinbase stock lost over 75% value

440 points by joering2 4y ago

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
wallawe 4y ago
I'm a buyer at this point. We'll see how earnings turn out tomorrow, but no matter how bad the macro environment, I think $COIN at 7 P/E is a good buy long-term.
- hardwaresofton 4y ago
  Same -- there are actually a bunch of tech stocks that are think are similarly a good bet right now, for example $NET (Cloudflare). Any other things that look like good buys under the market crush?
  - misiti3780 4y ago
    AMZN?
  - jmcgough 4y ago
    Intuit. Their P/E is high but they pay dividends, they're fairly recession-proof, and they have a big moat vs competition.
  - silisili 4y ago
    As someone who works at a...semi competitor, I think you're absolutely right about Cloudflare. They've got a strong team, strong products, and a lot of users. I think they're in a great position to start making tons of cash if so inclined...
    - squeaky-clean 4y ago
      Whenever cloudflare has an outage and like half the internet stops working, it reminds me to buy some more.
      - RyanShook 4y ago
        Good point. But does Cloudflare have a moat? Seems like AWS or some other service could start competing directly with them if they wanted to.
        astrange 4y ago
        They actually have opposite strategies - AWS and the other cloud providers charge a lot for outbound traffic to make it hard to leave them. I don't know if edge computing really has the advantage Cloudflare wants it to have though; it reminds me of open source projects with a lot of mirrors thinking you'll carefully pick the one in the city nearest you, as if anyone even notices.
        silisili 4y ago
        Having a ton of edges also give you the ability to do a lot more granular and faster DDoS/traffic load protection. You can, at its simplest form, just start dropping all incoming traffic to a destination at a node to save a site. With 10 or 20 POPs, that's a fairly big region. With thousands, it can get pretty targeted. Every company claims to be worldwide, but when their site is down, they tend not to care so much if you just start nuking traffic from random foreign areas to come back up. Not sure if Cloudflare does this today, but the potential is there.
        deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
  - adventured 4y ago
    NET is massively overvalued here, given the selling and repricing context. It could drop by another 50% and still be very richly priced. It's trading for 28 times sales, which is absurd. I say that as a big fan of the company's long-term prospects. Wait a while yet, it can be had for below $45 at least.
    - azinman2 4y ago
      28x sales doesn’t seem so bad to me for a young highly innovative company with a huge fan base and real revenue streams that aren’t simply ads.
  - adventured 4y ago
    Teladoc. Two times sales, a lot of negative sentiment on the stock (which I like to see so long as the business is sustaining). Bet on the long-term for the segment and their position. Their operating condition is sound and they have plenty of cash. Future returns were pulled forward during the pandemic era for things like remoting xyz (eg Zoom is suffering from that beating now as well). Let the bearishness rip these stocks up (a hard swing back from the insane bullishness previously, which is typical of speculators), take advantage of the stupidity that will abound in the selling down (exactly as it did on the way up). This is when you start looking at buying opportunities, to generate the returns later (even if it takes years). You take advantage of the big runs to sell to the fools chasing stocks like Teladoc at 6x-7x the present valuation. Buy sound companies with good growth horizons, bet longer-term in your calculating, buy cheaply enough to have a great moat / margin of safety. Rinse and repeat over time. It's all about taking advantage of the rampant irrationality, either direction. Just don't make the mistake of significantly overpaying and the odds are tilted that much more in your favor.
  - localhost 4y ago
    INTC is trading at a PE of 7.1! And a dividend yield of 3.3%
- mjhay 4y ago
  Keep in mind that you might get burned - you are betting against many with better information.
  - ______-_-______ 4y ago
    The efficient market hypothesis is a myth
    - vmception 4y ago
      exactly, the market mooned on the same information after Jerome Powell's speech than the ongoing decline the day after
      - esoterica 4y ago
        That doesn't contradict the EMH at all. The EMH does not say that stocks never go up or down without news.
        vmception 4y ago
        It contradicts whichever part you want it to But that was the biggest rally in a very long time, 3% on broad indices, only to erase all gains and continue lower Somebody created exit liquidity
        esoterica 4y ago
        Again, doesn't contradict the EMH. Might want to reread a wikipedia article or two.
        vmception 4y ago
        Yeah thats because its an unfalsifiable hypothesis, which undermines its credibility right out the gate Any theory or hypothesis that has zero criteria for being proven wrong is not science and has no place being repeated at all So you’re not wrong about it not contradicting, because nothing does since its a bullshit saying masquarading as a hypothesis, there’s just no point in leaning on it
- vmception 4y ago
  > long-term what's your time horizon exactly? also there may be a steeper discount tomorrow, when the forward estimates in the conference call talk about how something related to the macroeconomic environment and declining volumes and empty NFT marketplace, but who knows its just that its not always about the earnings themselves
  - lazyier 4y ago
    Long term these things can loose 100% of their value. That is an actual possibility.
- jeffreyames 4y ago
  Don’t try to catch a falling knife.
  - TuringNYC 4y ago
    Catchy phrase, but what is actually wrong with dollar cost averaging through a downturn? It seems to be the only effective way to invest for the long term.
    - antoniuschan99 4y ago
      Yea would like to know any cons in this strategy. I’m dca’ing a portion of my paycheck every month. In Canada we have tfsa’s which allow for a certain contribution per year that is tax free if you get gains. For the last few months my monthly contribution gets swallowed up by the losses and the balance hasn’t moved lol
      - lotsofpulp 4y ago
        Why would you want buy something at a higher price than a lower price? I only care about high prices when I am selling.
      - riffraff 4y ago
        There's a difference if you DCA a broad index and a single thing. The broad index will, most likely, be positively skewed and still be around in 20 years. DCA makes a lot of sense. The single stock may just go bankrupt, or become smaller and never recover (think Kodak or Nokia). DCA does not make as much sense.
    - squeaky-clean 4y ago
      (Disclaimer that I own some NET so I don't necessarily believe this is the case for them but also am probably biased). You can't really know it's a downturn until it ends and pops back up. Otherwise it's just their downfall. If a stock is going to just drop and continue dropping until bankruptcy, or plateau forever at a low point, then cutting your losses early would be better. But no one can really be sure which way a stock is going to go in the long-term. If you believe the dip is just a temporary thing and end up being correct then yeah it's a good play. If you end up being wrong it's just a slow way to lose money.
- gmays 4y ago
  Same. I've also bought Affirm, Shopify, Netflix, Peloton and Roblox in addition to Coinbase since they've all dropped ~70-90% in the last 6 months. I agree they were overvalued, but we seem to be in overreaction territory now. Even if we haven't seen the bottom yet, I think we'll see a lot of upside in these over the next 2-5 years.
  - colinmhayes 4y ago
    Netflix really seems like a loser to me. Every production company has a streaming service now, and most make better content than Netflix. Sure Netflix’s app might be better, but it’s also twice as expensive as every other service. I guess that Netflix’s “replace basic cable” package might work for people who only want one service, but from what I remember most people did not especially like basic cable. Wouldn’t be surprised if Netflix is gone in 20 years.
    - enos_feedler 4y ago
      Is netflix really aiming to “replace basic cable”? Seems more like replace hbo and a couple of random other channels. The price is outrageous, but I feel like we are getting to the point where market penetration involves business deals where a fraction of the sub is covered by someone else (carrier, credit card, etc).
      - colinmhayes 4y ago
        Look at the number of shows they produce compared to other services. On mobile so not going to link, but easy enough to find. Pretty clear to me that their strategy is to have a show for everyone’s favorite niche. Compare that to HBO where the strategy is to create shows that are actually good. 90% of Netflix is crap, and that’s not to say they don’t make good shows, they just make so many bad ones.
        bredren 4y ago
        This is Apple TV+ strategy too. Though there have still been some expensive looking clunkers.
- vmurthy 4y ago
  It's not the P/E itself but ALL the future earnings discounted to the present using an appropriate discount rate that counts. See the uncertainties involved here? :) If you can predict a range for the future earnings and discount them and if it is underpriced , do buy :) .
  - FredPret 4y ago
    Not only earnings but interest rates too, to work out the time value of money
- trident5000 4y ago
  You're basically gambling on monetary policy at the end of the day. If QT is steadfast, this market is at best going to be L shaped and volume will shrink for Coinbase. If QE remains, might see a reflation of the bubble.
- anonu 4y ago
  P/Es are irrelevant here I think. $COIN is a transaction-based business. Transactions are correlated with the price of BTCUSD. BTCUSD is down 50% in 6 months. The r/wsb crowd and others just wont be as enthused to trade something that isn't going to the moon. Thus, transactions will continue to trend down and $COIN will suffer.
  - RyanShook 4y ago
    Yep, I purchased COIN at IPO as a proxy for BTC and other crypto. Don’t expect it to recover until cryptocurrencies do, may be a while…
  - kolbe 4y ago
    However, the spread they make on their transactions gets wider as price action is more volatile.
    - sushid 4y ago
      Can you explain? A wider spread means less efficient markets which means fewer transactions which means lower revenue, no?
      - kolbe 4y ago
        Would you rather $1 per BTC on 1m BTC transacted or $10 per BTC on 500k transacted?
      - anonu 4y ago
        Spread is just what the market demands to get paid for taking the risk. Higher volatility can also mean way higher volume.
  - dehrmann 4y ago
    Earnings next quarter will be interesting. Transactions are better correlated to the volatility of Bitcoin, so they should have quite a tailwind from it. Their problem will be if it scares people away from crypto. Q2 might be good, but the guidance will be bad.
- outside1234 4y ago
  Dude, once the Bitcoin bubble pops there are going to be zero revenues.
- hristov 4y ago
  That 7 P/E is not real. I took a quick look at yahoo finance and they showed a negative 740 Million tax provision in Q2 of last year and negative 135 Million in Q3 of last year. A negative tax provision means they actually showed profit from taxes. The US government is not in the habit of giving companies hundreds of millions of dollars (almost a billion) in negative taxes so this is likely something not reflective of real profits. I will not check what it is because I have no intention in investing in coinbase, but from experience from other companies these sharp profits coming from taxes are usually reversals of valuation allowances for tax loss carryforwards. They are non-cash items that do not have much to do with the current operation of the business. So if you really want to do P/E investing and are using real money, I highly recommend you learn some financial accounting and learn to remove these one time accounting charges/incomes that do not really have much to do with the company's operation. Furthermore, as it comes to coinbase, I should point out that their source of revenues is highly uncertain, and dependent on uncertain trading of exotic assets. When people talk about P/E there is an unspoken assumption of some business continuity. I am not sure this is present with coinbase, but you may believe differently.
  - bb88 4y ago
    If I had $1M I would buy put options on COIN tomorrow. I think it's gonna be a blood bath on their stock on wednesday. Also this is the chart you've mentioned about the negative tax provision. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COIN/financials?p=COIN https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COIN/financials?p=COIN Click on the quarterly link to see the -700M tax provision.
rvz 4y ago
I did warn you, 1 year ago against buying the top. [0][1] Oh well. We'll see what happens in earnings today. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26789822 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26789822 [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26673100 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26673100
- joering2 4y ago
  what is your opinion re: the whole thing being extremely over-valuated at the getgo? We had already some solid competitors and Coinbase business model is they only make money if customers buy or sell crypto.
  - CyanLite4 4y ago
    That’s the problem, crypto as an asset class has been nothing but a QAnon-fueled meme “stock”. Unfortunately, I don’t think this is the end of it until we see much more pain. I can’t believe that real friends and family members that I know seriously invested in Dogecoin.
  - ethbr0 4y ago
    IMHO, companies that IPO and stay stable, or IPO and drop, are doing their early employees a favor at the market and institutional investors' expenses. I can't fault that. If the market's willing to overpay, and the money goes the people who actually built a company, where's the harm?
  - jjeaff 4y ago
    When you have wealth VCs, who are flush with cash, taking a company public, you can know right then and there that the future of growth and revenue is lackluster, at least from the insider perspective. Obviously, sometimes they get it wrong and a company does better than expected after going public. But if the insiders thought the company was poised for extreme growth, why would they sell their shares to unsuspecting, small time investors?
- 411111111111111 4y ago
  Your warning was wrong though. The price went up to over $300, so buying on the IPO would've been the correct decision if you also sold them at the beginning of the year. It's just a high risk high reward gamble as everything related to crypto
nscalf 4y ago
Hasn't exactly been a fun time for any growth stocks.
- cko 4y ago
  Hasn't been a fun time for value either. Small cap value especially, which I have a heavy tilt in.
- adventured 4y ago
  You don't want a very fun time generally, that's merely when you sell and realize your profit. You want some brutal, unrelenting misery with extreme bearish selling. That's when you strike your claim, that's when most of the future returns are set - that's the beautiful buy point. You don't get rich chasing and buying markets ever higher, you get rich buying cheap while everybody else is busy running for cover, and then you sell back to them when they come back to pay N times what you did (and whether it takes six months or six years is irrelevant so long as the return is good enough).
  - chii 4y ago
    > you get rich buying cheap it's cheap because it's riskier. The risk may or may not pan out - if it doesn't, you make a high premium on taking the risk. But make no mistake, a cheaper stock is the market indicating that the stock is risky. The alpha of investing is to know when the market may have mis-priced the business.
- fullshark 4y ago
  Growth stocks dont exist anymore, all companies with growth potential remain private unless it’s insanely capital intensive i.e car manufacturing. Software doesn’t qualify, they went public only to provide early investors liquidity.
fortran77 4y ago
Buy the dip?
- duxup 4y ago
  Dip or landslide?
  - qgin 4y ago
    Healthy markets have that fear. It’s been gone for a long time.
- hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
  Recent post is good reading: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31287464 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31287464
  - zmmmmm 4y ago
    Seems like the elephant in the room across the board in this market, whether you're talking about Netflix, Coinbase or anything else, is that we haven't seen inflation out of control for 30+ years and now here it is. An entire generation are now adults or even into middle age who never experienced it before. Most especially, never experienced how difficult it can be to control because it is such a self-reinforcing phenomenon. I have no idea if this is going to turn out to be the protracted downturn or again something we bounce back from. But there is definitely at least something different in the equation now that we have not seen for a long time. I'm generally an optimist, but I'd say if people are buying this dip, at least do it with your eyes open and buy it slowly and steadily, being prepared that it could be a 5-10year recovery period.
    - sakopov 4y ago
      Not disagreeing with you but "this time it's different" is what you typically experience every downturn in the market.
    - roflyear 4y ago
ferdowsi 4y ago
Cloudflare is down 71% in that same period. Zoom is down 60%. Speculative pandemic tech darlings are no longer darlings and are being hammered across the board. It's going to be a rough time for anyone who had high hopes for their equity compensation.
- imwillofficial 4y ago
  ::cries in almost vested RSUs that I really need::
- 0xy 4y ago
  Cloudflare might have been a frothy valuation, but it's still growing 54% YoY. I'm buying at these prices. ($NET bagholder)
  - shitlord 4y ago
    Same here. I bought their stock on several occasions, and a few times near the peak. I regret the timing, but not the decision to invest in this company.
- mmaunder 4y ago
  P/E is back. Funny how irrational exuberance is seen as a normal market and a return to fundamentals is a financial crisis.
  - arthurcolle 4y ago
    This is a delightfully succinct way to put it, going to steal this one!
    - neogodless 4y ago
      The phrase "irrational exuberance" is sprinkled throughout John Bogle's book, Don't Count On It. (At least I think I'm remembering that correctly. But some Google brought up Alan Greenspan as using the phrase a lot.) If you don't recognize the name, he founded Vanguard and the first index fund.
swellguy 4y ago
Buy high and sell low. That seems to be the MO of 2020+ investors. People are taking losses on these sales.
- adventured 4y ago
  I'm starting to get interested in buying (emphasis on starting). Keep the destruction coming sellers, it's appreciated.
- 0xy 4y ago
  It's not a loss if you don't sell ;)
  - spliunder54 4y ago
- ge96 4y ago
  yeap... it's great when the thing you bought loses 43% Also not smart when you use credit to buy ahh good times
  - JoeOfTexas 4y ago
    That blows my mind.
    - ge96 4y ago
      Yeah don't want to say "addiction" like "buy the dip" (as it continually went down) I thought I was smart turning credit into cash but I also was losing money through fees. Anyway after messing around with my own trading bots (at loss not using smart algos or anything) I'm not sure if it was worth it... fun project I guess/code practice. At least for that I was just messing around with small amounts eg. <$100 per account (about 10). But if you don't have money to do day trades crypto is cool for that. oh yeah I'm currently poor so I'm definitely no financial genius
tomatowurst 4y ago
Seems like most Ycombinator backed IPO would've have been bad bets. Once shares are floated in the public market, retailers are an after thought.
- redisman 4y ago
  I mean it is called an “exit” right?
  - scarface74 4y ago
    Also a Ponzi Scheme.
    - kolbe 4y ago
      That term gets used way too often and way too loosely. At some level, everything is a Ponzi Scheme. I think "pump and dump" is more accurately descriptive. And you never know: YC suppressing bad press on HN and promoting good press could be considered market manipulation.
      - scarface74 4y ago
        Everything isn’t a Ponzi scheme though. The current well known profitable tech companies were all profitable before they IPOd except for Amazon and Netflix(?). Apple, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Intel, Nvidia, etc. Have there been any successful sustainably profitable tech companies to go public since Facebook?
        kolbe 4y ago
        $FB was barely profitable, IPOing with a 400 P/E. And they had losses in two consecutive quarters a year after the IPO[1]. AMZN wasn't profitable for 7 years, then fell to unprofitable again in 2012 and 2014[2]. AAPL was net in the red from 1996 to 2003[3]. So, were all these companies "Ponzi schemes" during the eras where they were investing in growth? And if your only qualification is to "be profitable" for something not to be a Ponzi, then why are you here ragging on places like Coinbase? Coinbase is a 5.7 P/E company with $4b in net cash right now. [1] https://www.fintopea.com/quote/FB/income-statement https://www.fintopea.com/quote/FB/income-statement [2] https://www.fintopea.com/quote/AMZN/income-statement https://www.fintopea.com/quote/AMZN/income-statement [3] https://www.fintopea.com/quote/AMZN/income-statement https://www.fintopea.com/quote/AMZN/income-statement
alephnan 4y ago
Why is Coinbase specifically being singled out? Google went down from $3000 to $2270 in recent months. Affirm is down 27% ... today. Is this because HN was cynical and hating on Coinbase that it would go no where and then it did?
- thematrixturtle 4y ago
  I think you answered your own question there: Google is down 25%, Coinbase is down 3x that at 75%.
  - alephnan 4y ago
    Google is in the S&P500.
    - altdataseller 4y ago
      And? That’s not solace to anyone who owns COIN and could’ve bought GOOG instead.
      - edrxty 4y ago
        Google is "propped up" by index funds*. Everyone who isn't an edgy reddit wsb/crypto meme lord has been told over and over to buy SPY et al with religious devotion and take the "guaranteed 6/7/8/9/10%" annual returns to a happy retirement. They tend not to touch their portfolios until things get super ugly, which we may see soon. *propped up is a bit complicated here, people are just buying these bundles of corporations without making any value judgement on them individually. More realistically though, Google is the one propping up a bunch of companies that aren't as actively traded but are still on the index. People you've never heard of like Leidos Holdings, or companies that make you deeply question the contents of the index like Bath & Body Works, Inc. and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
        esoterica 4y ago
        > Google is "propped up" by index funds* So is Coinbase. Total market funds are the default index funds most people use, not the S&P 600.
cj 4y ago
I’m particularly sad to see Cloudflare’s stock having plummeted. Out of all the tech companies that IPO’d in the past few years, Cloudflare is one that the most potential to excel long term. Developer sentiment towards Cloudflare is comparable to Apple fanboys of the previous decade, and their products are legitimately good, backed with tangible assets (datacenters). They also have consistent growth quarter over quarter. It’s surprising how many not as impressive companies (pre-revenue!) got away with entering the public market last year. Good company or bad company, they all seem to be sharing the same freefall. (Disclosure, I own NET)
- brightball 4y ago
  It’s across the board. Everything that isn’t completely entrenched is taking a beating. Hoping to take advantage of the dip to buy into some other great companies that I missed and buy more Cloudflare too.
  - weatherlite 4y ago
    What's on your buy list? Asking for a friend.
    - brightball 4y ago
      Ha! I'm looking to get positions in Crowdstrike, ZScaler, Snowflake and Palantir if I can find good entry points. All have been too high to justify for the past couple of years. I've been in Cloudflare since about $30 and sold about 20-30% when it was at $200, so I figure I'm playing with house money there and have no plans to sell at any point. I would like to buy back though.
- version_five 4y ago
  > Out of all the tech companies that IPO’d in the past few years, Cloudflare is one that the most potential to excel long term If you think this, you should be happy and buy more of the stock. I don't know enough to say if I think it's a good idea, but if you do, don't be sad, buy more of it.
1-6 4y ago
Don’t touch anything Cathie Wood buys (for now).
- Yhippa 4y ago
  Why? Should I adopt the Inverse ARKK?
  - throwaway_1928 4y ago
    https://sarketf.com/ https://sarketf.com/
LatteLazy 4y ago
Why is a link to a Google search result to of the feed!?
jmyeet 4y ago
So I'm a crypto non-believer. I see it as the ultimate solution looking for a problem. But that doesn't apply to Coinbase because, at its core, Coinbase should be a transactional business that is a proxy for the size of the crypto market (or, more specifically, the crypto trading volume). I don't know enough about the financials of Coinbase however. It could be they have risks unrelated to their transaction business. For example, Robinhood was almost made insolvent by excessive exposure to GameStop. Does Coinbase engage in some weird margin business where they're exposing themselves to proprietary risk? If no, it seems like a good buy.
- acchow 4y ago
  Wouldn't it be a problem for Coinbase if the crypto market all but evaporates?
  - jmyeet 4y ago
    In the short term? Sure. That's why it's 75% off the peak. If you think the entire crypto market is going to go under then (again) yes. But as ridiculous as I think crypto generally is, I don't think it's going anywhere. YMMV.
  - outside1234 4y ago
    The crypto market won't all evaporate because it is a very useful tool for money laundry, illegal transactions, and bribes. But this is hopefully a much smaller market than the current one.
    - tmp_anon_22 4y ago
      > money laundry, illegal transactions, and bribes. Is it good for those things if you have to launder it AGAIN (with fees) just to get it back to a practical fiat currency?
    - eftychis 4y ago
      I mean cash is better for strictly better for illegal activities. That misconception has stuck and just stays there. One leaves way to many crumps with non-private digital assets. And private ones are treated like the plague. Plus KYC and compliance checks for any exchange in the USA and EU (dunno about the rest of the world) practically bans anything iffy. Compliance requirements have been stricter in Coinbase from my point of view than my banks...
ike0790 4y ago
i don't see why anyone would want to buy coinbase stock. it's extremely correlated to the broader crypto market with less upside. In a bull market, you could buy bitcoin or maybe be a bit more risky and buy some of the higher tier alt-coins and it would probably give you a 1.00 correlation in bull and bear cycles, but during the bull cycles the coins would skyrocket because they are tied to any major fundamental metrics like balance sheets.
- daenz 4y ago
  I think people bought into the idea because they were selling shovels in a gold rush.
  - chii 4y ago
    and when the gold rush is over, the shovel seller also goes out of business. Therefore, the shovel seller ought to sell their business _before_ the gold rush is over! Or find another use for shovels - unfortunately, i don't think there's much use for shovels outside of shovelling gold.
    - nostrademons 4y ago
      Tell that to Levi's, Wells Fargo, American Express, Armour Meatpacking, Studebaker motors, Ghirardelli chocolates, and Mark Twain, all of which got their start in the California gold rush.
- adventured 4y ago
  Because Bitcoin & Co can go sideways in a range for years while Coinbase prints an operating profit from the market-leading service they provide. Bitcoin doesn't produce anything, Coinbase does. What you're describing is speculating / gambling, betting on some kind of soaring event happening.
  - ike0790 4y ago
    If bitcoin/crypto is chopping sideways GUARANTEED Coinbase will be chopping sideways as well
m1117 4y ago
As a russian I like coinbase. It promotes crypto, which makes my world warmer.
- Vladimof 4y ago
  Kraken for the win... Coinbase doesn't even sell Monero/XMR
- jollybean 4y ago
  We need something for you for sure, but it may not be blockchain, possibly not even crypto.
  - snowcorn 4y ago
    Could you elaborate further on this? I originally read your response as meaning something bad specifically based on the OP stating that they are Russian, and I am hoping that isn't actually the case.
    - jollybean 4y ago
      Blockchain and Crypto are fairly useless in areas with reliable currency. The Ruble is a garbage currency and so, it's entirely feasible that the stated advantages/benefits of something like BTC really do add up in a place like Russia. But I'm not sure BTC is the solution, or that there are really any solutions as of yet. As for 'meaning something bad' and not being sure about it, why would you even respond? It's just a discussion board. Nothing we say here is important, it's not worth a glancing though to contemplate if someone somewhere on a comment section may or may not have meant something ill mannered towards someone else. And in all self awareness, I have no clue on earth why I am downvoted, usually in retrospect it's obvious, but when discussing 'Bitcoin' one can never really tell (not that it matters).
      - NavinF 4y ago
        > I have no clue on earth why I am downvoted Because everyone thought you were trolling with a dog whistle: “We need something (a bomb?) for you (Russia)”.
spoonjim 4y ago
Who would have thought that a concept of value so quickly memed into existence could lose its value so quickly?
StanislavPetrov 4y ago
I remember the "dotcom crash" of 2000, after which all of the scuttlebutt was about how the internet was a fad and all the related investments were just a giant bubble. The rhetoric I'm hearing today about crypto is strangely reminiscent. How it will turn out, nobody knows, but humility is warranted if history is any guide.
- legobmw99 4y ago
  This is ripe for survivors bias. Nobody remembers the time people said “X is just a fad”… and it was
  - StanislavPetrov 4y ago
    Everyone remembers every time people said "X is just a fad" after that "fad" caused a stock market collapse.
  - baskethead 4y ago
    Everyone knew that the Macarena was a fad.
- cmrdporcupine 4y ago
  People weren't saying the "Internet is a fad" back then. They/we were saying that many of the businesses that were being heavily invested in were unsound because they lacked a real plan towards profitability. Many businesses had no chance of turning profit, but were VC funded like crazy. I worked at a company that was doing "group buy" purchases and the product themselves weren't really getting real group discounts, so they just burned investment money to discount them. Literally buying customers under the thought that getting scale would just eventually solve the problem. And then the whole house of cards fell apart. It wasn't until a few years later, when Google figured it out with AdWords, etc. that people started making real money. There's no inherent reason to assume that this will happen with cryptocurrency.
  - blululu 4y ago
    “The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law' becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s” -Some dude who writes for The New York Times...
Shadonototra 4y ago
USD is dead, CIA ended their crypto experiment and are ready to push their digital USD"
- themitigating 4y ago
  So they want to replace the government backed USD with a government backed USD except it's on the blockchain because....?
  - Shadonototra 4y ago
    to normalize currencies world wide, the end game is killing cash
    - themitigating 4y ago
      Why?
noichepasam 4y ago
- outside1234 4y ago
  I can't tell if this is sarcasm but it is great sarcasm if it is!
outside1234 4y ago
Only 75%? So still 25% to go
layer8 4y ago
It’s time to buy: https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/ https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
tkojames 4y ago
Zoom atleast after the 1 year cliff is granting more RSU if your underwater to equal out and at year 2 as well. I am thankful for it....
- jeffbee 4y ago
  How can you be underwater on RSUs?
  - kerbs 4y ago
    Relative to your offer
29athrowaway 4y ago
That just means buy more.
rubyist5eva 4y ago
Everything is on sale, nice.
cercatrova 4y ago
It is interesting that Bitcoin is only down 50% in the same time, that means Coinbase is not strictly correlated with BTC then. So, there must be another reason why Coinbase is down, which would be interesting to figure out.
- thinkingkong 4y ago
  Oh it's strictly correlated just not pinned.
- nostrademons 4y ago
  Interest rates. Value of BTC is what people will pay for it now. Value of COIN is the discounted value of all future cash flows, which is heavily correlated with what people will pay for BTC in the future. COIN is doubly-levered on interest rates: its future earnings are tied to BTC, which itself tends to drop when the stop market does, but those earnings are also discounted by the prevailing interest rate. When rates go up earning lots of money from high BTC prices in the future doesn't mean a whole lot.
ncmncm 4y ago
So... It begins. (Xkcd reference: https://xkcd.com/1656/ https://xkcd.com/1656/)
donatj 4y ago
Gods I know. Basically everything I invested in in my spare time day trading during the pandemic is down to an insane degree. My entire portfolio is in the red except Tesla, AMC and Nvidia. Shits getting real depressing.
- lupire 4y ago
  Day trading is not investing.
  - donatj 4y ago
    By what measure? I move money around trying to grow it. That's investing. > expend money with the expectation of achieving a profit or material result by putting it into financial plans, shares, or property None of that says "long term"
    - ngokevin 4y ago
      Comment sets itself up for a reply about casinos.
      - donatj 4y ago
        Insert obligatory "at the rate I'm going" joke here.
    - mym1990 4y ago
      According to the SEC, day trading is not itself a form of investment due to the lack of fundamental analysis, a lack of long term thinking, a bigger focus on price movements and a more technical approach. But of course, by a number of other definitions, it is. It really just depends on what yours or someone else's frame of reference is.
  - original_idea 4y ago
    "hacking is not cracking".... if you're going to be pedantic, at least add something to the conversation.
sbahr001 4y ago
Its like a mini dot com crash. A lot of pandemic had incredible growth that is was truly sustainable. Now you have companies want their employees back in the office. So all that "growth" that could have been this year is not there.
timcavel 4y ago
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
hardsoftnfloppy 4y ago

440 points by joering2 4y ago

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

I'm a buyer at this point. We'll see how earnings turn out tomorrow, but no matter how bad the macro environment, I think $COIN at 7 P/E is a good buy long-term.

hardwaresofton 4y ago
Same -- there are actually a bunch of tech stocks that are think are similarly a good bet right now, for example $NET (Cloudflare). Any other things that look like good buys under the market crush?
- misiti3780 4y ago
  AMZN?
- jmcgough 4y ago
  Intuit. Their P/E is high but they pay dividends, they're fairly recession-proof, and they have a big moat vs competition.
- silisili 4y ago
  As someone who works at a...semi competitor, I think you're absolutely right about Cloudflare. They've got a strong team, strong products, and a lot of users. I think they're in a great position to start making tons of cash if so inclined...
  - squeaky-clean 4y ago
    Whenever cloudflare has an outage and like half the internet stops working, it reminds me to buy some more.
    - RyanShook 4y ago
      Good point. But does Cloudflare have a moat? Seems like AWS or some other service could start competing directly with them if they wanted to.
      - astrange 4y ago
        They actually have opposite strategies - AWS and the other cloud providers charge a lot for outbound traffic to make it hard to leave them. I don't know if edge computing really has the advantage Cloudflare wants it to have though; it reminds me of open source projects with a lot of mirrors thinking you'll carefully pick the one in the city nearest you, as if anyone even notices.
        silisili 4y ago
        Having a ton of edges also give you the ability to do a lot more granular and faster DDoS/traffic load protection. You can, at its simplest form, just start dropping all incoming traffic to a destination at a node to save a site. With 10 or 20 POPs, that's a fairly big region. With thousands, it can get pretty targeted. Every company claims to be worldwide, but when their site is down, they tend not to care so much if you just start nuking traffic from random foreign areas to come back up. Not sure if Cloudflare does this today, but the potential is there.
      - deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
- adventured 4y ago
  NET is massively overvalued here, given the selling and repricing context. It could drop by another 50% and still be very richly priced. It's trading for 28 times sales, which is absurd. I say that as a big fan of the company's long-term prospects. Wait a while yet, it can be had for below $45 at least.
  - azinman2 4y ago
    28x sales doesn’t seem so bad to me for a young highly innovative company with a huge fan base and real revenue streams that aren’t simply ads.
- adventured 4y ago
  Teladoc. Two times sales, a lot of negative sentiment on the stock (which I like to see so long as the business is sustaining). Bet on the long-term for the segment and their position. Their operating condition is sound and they have plenty of cash. Future returns were pulled forward during the pandemic era for things like remoting xyz (eg Zoom is suffering from that beating now as well). Let the bearishness rip these stocks up (a hard swing back from the insane bullishness previously, which is typical of speculators), take advantage of the stupidity that will abound in the selling down (exactly as it did on the way up). This is when you start looking at buying opportunities, to generate the returns later (even if it takes years). You take advantage of the big runs to sell to the fools chasing stocks like Teladoc at 6x-7x the present valuation. Buy sound companies with good growth horizons, bet longer-term in your calculating, buy cheaply enough to have a great moat / margin of safety. Rinse and repeat over time. It's all about taking advantage of the rampant irrationality, either direction. Just don't make the mistake of significantly overpaying and the odds are tilted that much more in your favor.
- localhost 4y ago
  INTC is trading at a PE of 7.1! And a dividend yield of 3.3%
mjhay 4y ago
Keep in mind that you might get burned - you are betting against many with better information.
- ______-_-______ 4y ago
  The efficient market hypothesis is a myth
  - vmception 4y ago
    exactly, the market mooned on the same information after Jerome Powell's speech than the ongoing decline the day after
    - esoterica 4y ago
      That doesn't contradict the EMH at all. The EMH does not say that stocks never go up or down without news.
      - vmception 4y ago
        It contradicts whichever part you want it to But that was the biggest rally in a very long time, 3% on broad indices, only to erase all gains and continue lower Somebody created exit liquidity
        esoterica 4y ago
        Again, doesn't contradict the EMH. Might want to reread a wikipedia article or two.
        vmception 4y ago
        Yeah thats because its an unfalsifiable hypothesis, which undermines its credibility right out the gate Any theory or hypothesis that has zero criteria for being proven wrong is not science and has no place being repeated at all So you’re not wrong about it not contradicting, because nothing does since its a bullshit saying masquarading as a hypothesis, there’s just no point in leaning on it
vmception 4y ago
> long-term what's your time horizon exactly? also there may be a steeper discount tomorrow, when the forward estimates in the conference call talk about how something related to the macroeconomic environment and declining volumes and empty NFT marketplace, but who knows its just that its not always about the earnings themselves
- lazyier 4y ago
  Long term these things can loose 100% of their value. That is an actual possibility.
jeffreyames 4y ago
Don’t try to catch a falling knife.
- TuringNYC 4y ago
  Catchy phrase, but what is actually wrong with dollar cost averaging through a downturn? It seems to be the only effective way to invest for the long term.
  - antoniuschan99 4y ago
    Yea would like to know any cons in this strategy. I’m dca’ing a portion of my paycheck every month. In Canada we have tfsa’s which allow for a certain contribution per year that is tax free if you get gains. For the last few months my monthly contribution gets swallowed up by the losses and the balance hasn’t moved lol
    - lotsofpulp 4y ago
      Why would you want buy something at a higher price than a lower price? I only care about high prices when I am selling.
    - riffraff 4y ago
      There's a difference if you DCA a broad index and a single thing. The broad index will, most likely, be positively skewed and still be around in 20 years. DCA makes a lot of sense. The single stock may just go bankrupt, or become smaller and never recover (think Kodak or Nokia). DCA does not make as much sense.
  - squeaky-clean 4y ago
    (Disclaimer that I own some NET so I don't necessarily believe this is the case for them but also am probably biased). You can't really know it's a downturn until it ends and pops back up. Otherwise it's just their downfall. If a stock is going to just drop and continue dropping until bankruptcy, or plateau forever at a low point, then cutting your losses early would be better. But no one can really be sure which way a stock is going to go in the long-term. If you believe the dip is just a temporary thing and end up being correct then yeah it's a good play. If you end up being wrong it's just a slow way to lose money.
gmays 4y ago
Same. I've also bought Affirm, Shopify, Netflix, Peloton and Roblox in addition to Coinbase since they've all dropped ~70-90% in the last 6 months. I agree they were overvalued, but we seem to be in overreaction territory now. Even if we haven't seen the bottom yet, I think we'll see a lot of upside in these over the next 2-5 years.
- colinmhayes 4y ago
  Netflix really seems like a loser to me. Every production company has a streaming service now, and most make better content than Netflix. Sure Netflix’s app might be better, but it’s also twice as expensive as every other service. I guess that Netflix’s “replace basic cable” package might work for people who only want one service, but from what I remember most people did not especially like basic cable. Wouldn’t be surprised if Netflix is gone in 20 years.
  - enos_feedler 4y ago
    Is netflix really aiming to “replace basic cable”? Seems more like replace hbo and a couple of random other channels. The price is outrageous, but I feel like we are getting to the point where market penetration involves business deals where a fraction of the sub is covered by someone else (carrier, credit card, etc).
    - colinmhayes 4y ago
      Look at the number of shows they produce compared to other services. On mobile so not going to link, but easy enough to find. Pretty clear to me that their strategy is to have a show for everyone’s favorite niche. Compare that to HBO where the strategy is to create shows that are actually good. 90% of Netflix is crap, and that’s not to say they don’t make good shows, they just make so many bad ones.
      - bredren 4y ago
        This is Apple TV+ strategy too. Though there have still been some expensive looking clunkers.
vmurthy 4y ago
It's not the P/E itself but ALL the future earnings discounted to the present using an appropriate discount rate that counts. See the uncertainties involved here? :) If you can predict a range for the future earnings and discount them and if it is underpriced , do buy :) .
- FredPret 4y ago
  Not only earnings but interest rates too, to work out the time value of money
trident5000 4y ago
You're basically gambling on monetary policy at the end of the day. If QT is steadfast, this market is at best going to be L shaped and volume will shrink for Coinbase. If QE remains, might see a reflation of the bubble.
anonu 4y ago
P/Es are irrelevant here I think. $COIN is a transaction-based business. Transactions are correlated with the price of BTCUSD. BTCUSD is down 50% in 6 months. The r/wsb crowd and others just wont be as enthused to trade something that isn't going to the moon. Thus, transactions will continue to trend down and $COIN will suffer.
- RyanShook 4y ago
  Yep, I purchased COIN at IPO as a proxy for BTC and other crypto. Don’t expect it to recover until cryptocurrencies do, may be a while…
- kolbe 4y ago
  However, the spread they make on their transactions gets wider as price action is more volatile.
  - sushid 4y ago
    Can you explain? A wider spread means less efficient markets which means fewer transactions which means lower revenue, no?
    - kolbe 4y ago
      Would you rather $1 per BTC on 1m BTC transacted or $10 per BTC on 500k transacted?
    - anonu 4y ago
      Spread is just what the market demands to get paid for taking the risk. Higher volatility can also mean way higher volume.
- dehrmann 4y ago
  Earnings next quarter will be interesting. Transactions are better correlated to the volatility of Bitcoin, so they should have quite a tailwind from it. Their problem will be if it scares people away from crypto. Q2 might be good, but the guidance will be bad.
outside1234 4y ago
Dude, once the Bitcoin bubble pops there are going to be zero revenues.
hristov 4y ago
That 7 P/E is not real. I took a quick look at yahoo finance and they showed a negative 740 Million tax provision in Q2 of last year and negative 135 Million in Q3 of last year. A negative tax provision means they actually showed profit from taxes. The US government is not in the habit of giving companies hundreds of millions of dollars (almost a billion) in negative taxes so this is likely something not reflective of real profits. I will not check what it is because I have no intention in investing in coinbase, but from experience from other companies these sharp profits coming from taxes are usually reversals of valuation allowances for tax loss carryforwards. They are non-cash items that do not have much to do with the current operation of the business. So if you really want to do P/E investing and are using real money, I highly recommend you learn some financial accounting and learn to remove these one time accounting charges/incomes that do not really have much to do with the company's operation. Furthermore, as it comes to coinbase, I should point out that their source of revenues is highly uncertain, and dependent on uncertain trading of exotic assets. When people talk about P/E there is an unspoken assumption of some business continuity. I am not sure this is present with coinbase, but you may believe differently.
- bb88 4y ago
  If I had $1M I would buy put options on COIN tomorrow. I think it's gonna be a blood bath on their stock on wednesday. Also this is the chart you've mentioned about the negative tax provision. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COIN/financials?p=COIN https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COIN/financials?p=COIN Click on the quarterly link to see the -700M tax provision.

rvz 4y ago

I did warn you, 1 year ago against buying the top. [0][1] Oh well. We'll see what happens in earnings today. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26789822 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26789822 [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26673100 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26673100

joering2 4y ago
what is your opinion re: the whole thing being extremely over-valuated at the getgo? We had already some solid competitors and Coinbase business model is they only make money if customers buy or sell crypto.
- CyanLite4 4y ago
  That’s the problem, crypto as an asset class has been nothing but a QAnon-fueled meme “stock”. Unfortunately, I don’t think this is the end of it until we see much more pain. I can’t believe that real friends and family members that I know seriously invested in Dogecoin.
- ethbr0 4y ago
  IMHO, companies that IPO and stay stable, or IPO and drop, are doing their early employees a favor at the market and institutional investors' expenses. I can't fault that. If the market's willing to overpay, and the money goes the people who actually built a company, where's the harm?
- jjeaff 4y ago
  When you have wealth VCs, who are flush with cash, taking a company public, you can know right then and there that the future of growth and revenue is lackluster, at least from the insider perspective. Obviously, sometimes they get it wrong and a company does better than expected after going public. But if the insiders thought the company was poised for extreme growth, why would they sell their shares to unsuspecting, small time investors?
411111111111111 4y ago
Your warning was wrong though. The price went up to over $300, so buying on the IPO would've been the correct decision if you also sold them at the beginning of the year. It's just a high risk high reward gamble as everything related to crypto

nscalf 4y ago

Hasn't exactly been a fun time for any growth stocks.

cko 4y ago
Hasn't been a fun time for value either. Small cap value especially, which I have a heavy tilt in.
adventured 4y ago
You don't want a very fun time generally, that's merely when you sell and realize your profit. You want some brutal, unrelenting misery with extreme bearish selling. That's when you strike your claim, that's when most of the future returns are set - that's the beautiful buy point. You don't get rich chasing and buying markets ever higher, you get rich buying cheap while everybody else is busy running for cover, and then you sell back to them when they come back to pay N times what you did (and whether it takes six months or six years is irrelevant so long as the return is good enough).
- chii 4y ago
  > you get rich buying cheap it's cheap because it's riskier. The risk may or may not pan out - if it doesn't, you make a high premium on taking the risk. But make no mistake, a cheaper stock is the market indicating that the stock is risky. The alpha of investing is to know when the market may have mis-priced the business.
fullshark 4y ago
Growth stocks dont exist anymore, all companies with growth potential remain private unless it’s insanely capital intensive i.e car manufacturing. Software doesn’t qualify, they went public only to provide early investors liquidity.

fortran77 4y ago

Buy the dip?

duxup 4y ago
Dip or landslide?
- qgin 4y ago
  Healthy markets have that fear. It’s been gone for a long time.
hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
Recent post is good reading: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31287464 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31287464
- zmmmmm 4y ago
  Seems like the elephant in the room across the board in this market, whether you're talking about Netflix, Coinbase or anything else, is that we haven't seen inflation out of control for 30+ years and now here it is. An entire generation are now adults or even into middle age who never experienced it before. Most especially, never experienced how difficult it can be to control because it is such a self-reinforcing phenomenon. I have no idea if this is going to turn out to be the protracted downturn or again something we bounce back from. But there is definitely at least something different in the equation now that we have not seen for a long time. I'm generally an optimist, but I'd say if people are buying this dip, at least do it with your eyes open and buy it slowly and steadily, being prepared that it could be a 5-10year recovery period.
  - sakopov 4y ago
    Not disagreeing with you but "this time it's different" is what you typically experience every downturn in the market.
  - roflyear 4y ago

ferdowsi 4y ago

Cloudflare is down 71% in that same period. Zoom is down 60%. Speculative pandemic tech darlings are no longer darlings and are being hammered across the board. It's going to be a rough time for anyone who had high hopes for their equity compensation.

imwillofficial 4y ago
::cries in almost vested RSUs that I really need::
0xy 4y ago
Cloudflare might have been a frothy valuation, but it's still growing 54% YoY. I'm buying at these prices. ($NET bagholder)
- shitlord 4y ago
  Same here. I bought their stock on several occasions, and a few times near the peak. I regret the timing, but not the decision to invest in this company.
mmaunder 4y ago
P/E is back. Funny how irrational exuberance is seen as a normal market and a return to fundamentals is a financial crisis.
- arthurcolle 4y ago
  This is a delightfully succinct way to put it, going to steal this one!
  - neogodless 4y ago
    The phrase "irrational exuberance" is sprinkled throughout John Bogle's book, Don't Count On It. (At least I think I'm remembering that correctly. But some Google brought up Alan Greenspan as using the phrase a lot.) If you don't recognize the name, he founded Vanguard and the first index fund.

swellguy 4y ago

Buy high and sell low. That seems to be the MO of 2020+ investors. People are taking losses on these sales.

adventured 4y ago
I'm starting to get interested in buying (emphasis on starting). Keep the destruction coming sellers, it's appreciated.
0xy 4y ago
It's not a loss if you don't sell ;)
- spliunder54 4y ago
ge96 4y ago
yeap... it's great when the thing you bought loses 43% Also not smart when you use credit to buy ahh good times
- JoeOfTexas 4y ago
  That blows my mind.
  - ge96 4y ago
    Yeah don't want to say "addiction" like "buy the dip" (as it continually went down) I thought I was smart turning credit into cash but I also was losing money through fees. Anyway after messing around with my own trading bots (at loss not using smart algos or anything) I'm not sure if it was worth it... fun project I guess/code practice. At least for that I was just messing around with small amounts eg. <$100 per account (about 10). But if you don't have money to do day trades crypto is cool for that. oh yeah I'm currently poor so I'm definitely no financial genius

tomatowurst 4y ago

Seems like most Ycombinator backed IPO would've have been bad bets. Once shares are floated in the public market, retailers are an after thought.

redisman 4y ago
I mean it is called an “exit” right?
- scarface74 4y ago
  Also a Ponzi Scheme.
  - kolbe 4y ago
    That term gets used way too often and way too loosely. At some level, everything is a Ponzi Scheme. I think "pump and dump" is more accurately descriptive. And you never know: YC suppressing bad press on HN and promoting good press could be considered market manipulation.
    - scarface74 4y ago
      Everything isn’t a Ponzi scheme though. The current well known profitable tech companies were all profitable before they IPOd except for Amazon and Netflix(?). Apple, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Intel, Nvidia, etc. Have there been any successful sustainably profitable tech companies to go public since Facebook?
      - kolbe 4y ago
        $FB was barely profitable, IPOing with a 400 P/E. And they had losses in two consecutive quarters a year after the IPO[1]. AMZN wasn't profitable for 7 years, then fell to unprofitable again in 2012 and 2014[2]. AAPL was net in the red from 1996 to 2003[3]. So, were all these companies "Ponzi schemes" during the eras where they were investing in growth? And if your only qualification is to "be profitable" for something not to be a Ponzi, then why are you here ragging on places like Coinbase? Coinbase is a 5.7 P/E company with $4b in net cash right now. [1] https://www.fintopea.com/quote/FB/income-statement https://www.fintopea.com/quote/FB/income-statement [2] https://www.fintopea.com/quote/AMZN/income-statement https://www.fintopea.com/quote/AMZN/income-statement [3] https://www.fintopea.com/quote/AMZN/income-statement https://www.fintopea.com/quote/AMZN/income-statement

alephnan 4y ago

Why is Coinbase specifically being singled out? Google went down from $3000 to $2270 in recent months. Affirm is down 27% ... today. Is this because HN was cynical and hating on Coinbase that it would go no where and then it did?

thematrixturtle 4y ago
I think you answered your own question there: Google is down 25%, Coinbase is down 3x that at 75%.
- alephnan 4y ago
  Google is in the S&P500.
  - altdataseller 4y ago
    And? That’s not solace to anyone who owns COIN and could’ve bought GOOG instead.
    - edrxty 4y ago
      Google is "propped up" by index funds*. Everyone who isn't an edgy reddit wsb/crypto meme lord has been told over and over to buy SPY et al with religious devotion and take the "guaranteed 6/7/8/9/10%" annual returns to a happy retirement. They tend not to touch their portfolios until things get super ugly, which we may see soon. *propped up is a bit complicated here, people are just buying these bundles of corporations without making any value judgement on them individually. More realistically though, Google is the one propping up a bunch of companies that aren't as actively traded but are still on the index. People you've never heard of like Leidos Holdings, or companies that make you deeply question the contents of the index like Bath & Body Works, Inc. and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
      - esoterica 4y ago
        > Google is "propped up" by index funds* So is Coinbase. Total market funds are the default index funds most people use, not the S&P 600.

cj 4y ago

I’m particularly sad to see Cloudflare’s stock having plummeted. Out of all the tech companies that IPO’d in the past few years, Cloudflare is one that the most potential to excel long term. Developer sentiment towards Cloudflare is comparable to Apple fanboys of the previous decade, and their products are legitimately good, backed with tangible assets (datacenters). They also have consistent growth quarter over quarter. It’s surprising how many not as impressive companies (pre-revenue!) got away with entering the public market last year. Good company or bad company, they all seem to be sharing the same freefall. (Disclosure, I own NET)

brightball 4y ago
It’s across the board. Everything that isn’t completely entrenched is taking a beating. Hoping to take advantage of the dip to buy into some other great companies that I missed and buy more Cloudflare too.
- weatherlite 4y ago
  What's on your buy list? Asking for a friend.
  - brightball 4y ago
    Ha! I'm looking to get positions in Crowdstrike, ZScaler, Snowflake and Palantir if I can find good entry points. All have been too high to justify for the past couple of years. I've been in Cloudflare since about $30 and sold about 20-30% when it was at $200, so I figure I'm playing with house money there and have no plans to sell at any point. I would like to buy back though.
version_five 4y ago
> Out of all the tech companies that IPO’d in the past few years, Cloudflare is one that the most potential to excel long term If you think this, you should be happy and buy more of the stock. I don't know enough to say if I think it's a good idea, but if you do, don't be sad, buy more of it.

1-6 4y ago

Don’t touch anything Cathie Wood buys (for now).

Yhippa 4y ago
Why? Should I adopt the Inverse ARKK?
- throwaway_1928 4y ago
  https://sarketf.com/ https://sarketf.com/

LatteLazy 4y ago

Why is a link to a Google search result to of the feed!?

jmyeet 4y ago

So I'm a crypto non-believer. I see it as the ultimate solution looking for a problem. But that doesn't apply to Coinbase because, at its core, Coinbase should be a transactional business that is a proxy for the size of the crypto market (or, more specifically, the crypto trading volume). I don't know enough about the financials of Coinbase however. It could be they have risks unrelated to their transaction business. For example, Robinhood was almost made insolvent by excessive exposure to GameStop. Does Coinbase engage in some weird margin business where they're exposing themselves to proprietary risk? If no, it seems like a good buy.

acchow 4y ago
Wouldn't it be a problem for Coinbase if the crypto market all but evaporates?
- jmyeet 4y ago
  In the short term? Sure. That's why it's 75% off the peak. If you think the entire crypto market is going to go under then (again) yes. But as ridiculous as I think crypto generally is, I don't think it's going anywhere. YMMV.
- outside1234 4y ago
  The crypto market won't all evaporate because it is a very useful tool for money laundry, illegal transactions, and bribes. But this is hopefully a much smaller market than the current one.
  - tmp_anon_22 4y ago
    > money laundry, illegal transactions, and bribes. Is it good for those things if you have to launder it AGAIN (with fees) just to get it back to a practical fiat currency?
  - eftychis 4y ago
    I mean cash is better for strictly better for illegal activities. That misconception has stuck and just stays there. One leaves way to many crumps with non-private digital assets. And private ones are treated like the plague. Plus KYC and compliance checks for any exchange in the USA and EU (dunno about the rest of the world) practically bans anything iffy. Compliance requirements have been stricter in Coinbase from my point of view than my banks...

ike0790 4y ago

i don't see why anyone would want to buy coinbase stock. it's extremely correlated to the broader crypto market with less upside. In a bull market, you could buy bitcoin or maybe be a bit more risky and buy some of the higher tier alt-coins and it would probably give you a 1.00 correlation in bull and bear cycles, but during the bull cycles the coins would skyrocket because they are tied to any major fundamental metrics like balance sheets.

daenz 4y ago
I think people bought into the idea because they were selling shovels in a gold rush.
- chii 4y ago
  and when the gold rush is over, the shovel seller also goes out of business. Therefore, the shovel seller ought to sell their business _before_ the gold rush is over! Or find another use for shovels - unfortunately, i don't think there's much use for shovels outside of shovelling gold.
  - nostrademons 4y ago
    Tell that to Levi's, Wells Fargo, American Express, Armour Meatpacking, Studebaker motors, Ghirardelli chocolates, and Mark Twain, all of which got their start in the California gold rush.
adventured 4y ago
Because Bitcoin & Co can go sideways in a range for years while Coinbase prints an operating profit from the market-leading service they provide. Bitcoin doesn't produce anything, Coinbase does. What you're describing is speculating / gambling, betting on some kind of soaring event happening.
- ike0790 4y ago
  If bitcoin/crypto is chopping sideways GUARANTEED Coinbase will be chopping sideways as well

m1117 4y ago

As a russian I like coinbase. It promotes crypto, which makes my world warmer.

Vladimof 4y ago
Kraken for the win... Coinbase doesn't even sell Monero/XMR
jollybean 4y ago
We need something for you for sure, but it may not be blockchain, possibly not even crypto.
- snowcorn 4y ago
  Could you elaborate further on this? I originally read your response as meaning something bad specifically based on the OP stating that they are Russian, and I am hoping that isn't actually the case.
  - jollybean 4y ago
    Blockchain and Crypto are fairly useless in areas with reliable currency. The Ruble is a garbage currency and so, it's entirely feasible that the stated advantages/benefits of something like BTC really do add up in a place like Russia. But I'm not sure BTC is the solution, or that there are really any solutions as of yet. As for 'meaning something bad' and not being sure about it, why would you even respond? It's just a discussion board. Nothing we say here is important, it's not worth a glancing though to contemplate if someone somewhere on a comment section may or may not have meant something ill mannered towards someone else. And in all self awareness, I have no clue on earth why I am downvoted, usually in retrospect it's obvious, but when discussing 'Bitcoin' one can never really tell (not that it matters).
    - NavinF 4y ago
      > I have no clue on earth why I am downvoted Because everyone thought you were trolling with a dog whistle: “We need something (a bomb?) for you (Russia)”.

spoonjim 4y ago

Who would have thought that a concept of value so quickly memed into existence could lose its value so quickly?

StanislavPetrov 4y ago

I remember the "dotcom crash" of 2000, after which all of the scuttlebutt was about how the internet was a fad and all the related investments were just a giant bubble. The rhetoric I'm hearing today about crypto is strangely reminiscent. How it will turn out, nobody knows, but humility is warranted if history is any guide.

legobmw99 4y ago
This is ripe for survivors bias. Nobody remembers the time people said “X is just a fad”… and it was
- StanislavPetrov 4y ago
  Everyone remembers every time people said "X is just a fad" after that "fad" caused a stock market collapse.
- baskethead 4y ago
  Everyone knew that the Macarena was a fad.
cmrdporcupine 4y ago
People weren't saying the "Internet is a fad" back then. They/we were saying that many of the businesses that were being heavily invested in were unsound because they lacked a real plan towards profitability. Many businesses had no chance of turning profit, but were VC funded like crazy. I worked at a company that was doing "group buy" purchases and the product themselves weren't really getting real group discounts, so they just burned investment money to discount them. Literally buying customers under the thought that getting scale would just eventually solve the problem. And then the whole house of cards fell apart. It wasn't until a few years later, when Google figured it out with AdWords, etc. that people started making real money. There's no inherent reason to assume that this will happen with cryptocurrency.
- blululu 4y ago
  “The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law' becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s” -Some dude who writes for The New York Times...

Shadonototra 4y ago

USD is dead, CIA ended their crypto experiment and are ready to push their digital USD"

themitigating 4y ago
So they want to replace the government backed USD with a government backed USD except it's on the blockchain because....?
- Shadonototra 4y ago
  to normalize currencies world wide, the end game is killing cash
  - themitigating 4y ago
    Why?

noichepasam 4y ago

outside1234 4y ago
I can't tell if this is sarcasm but it is great sarcasm if it is!

outside1234 4y ago

Only 75%? So still 25% to go

layer8 4y ago

It’s time to buy: https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/ https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

deleted 4y ago
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tkojames 4y ago

Zoom atleast after the 1 year cliff is granting more RSU if your underwater to equal out and at year 2 as well. I am thankful for it....

jeffbee 4y ago
How can you be underwater on RSUs?
- kerbs 4y ago
  Relative to your offer

29athrowaway 4y ago

That just means buy more.

rubyist5eva 4y ago

Everything is on sale, nice.

cercatrova 4y ago

It is interesting that Bitcoin is only down 50% in the same time, that means Coinbase is not strictly correlated with BTC then. So, there must be another reason why Coinbase is down, which would be interesting to figure out.

thinkingkong 4y ago
Oh it's strictly correlated just not pinned.
nostrademons 4y ago
Interest rates. Value of BTC is what people will pay for it now. Value of COIN is the discounted value of all future cash flows, which is heavily correlated with what people will pay for BTC in the future. COIN is doubly-levered on interest rates: its future earnings are tied to BTC, which itself tends to drop when the stop market does, but those earnings are also discounted by the prevailing interest rate. When rates go up earning lots of money from high BTC prices in the future doesn't mean a whole lot.

ncmncm 4y ago

So... It begins. (Xkcd reference: https://xkcd.com/1656/ https://xkcd.com/1656/)

donatj 4y ago

Gods I know. Basically everything I invested in in my spare time day trading during the pandemic is down to an insane degree. My entire portfolio is in the red except Tesla, AMC and Nvidia. Shits getting real depressing.

lupire 4y ago
Day trading is not investing.
- donatj 4y ago
  By what measure? I move money around trying to grow it. That's investing. > expend money with the expectation of achieving a profit or material result by putting it into financial plans, shares, or property None of that says "long term"
  - ngokevin 4y ago
    Comment sets itself up for a reply about casinos.
    - donatj 4y ago
      Insert obligatory "at the rate I'm going" joke here.
  - mym1990 4y ago
    According to the SEC, day trading is not itself a form of investment due to the lack of fundamental analysis, a lack of long term thinking, a bigger focus on price movements and a more technical approach. But of course, by a number of other definitions, it is. It really just depends on what yours or someone else's frame of reference is.
- original_idea 4y ago
  "hacking is not cracking".... if you're going to be pedantic, at least add something to the conversation.

sbahr001 4y ago

Its like a mini dot com crash. A lot of pandemic had incredible growth that is was truly sustainable. Now you have companies want their employees back in the office. So all that "growth" that could have been this year is not there.

timcavel 4y ago

deleted 4y ago

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hardsoftnfloppy 4y ago