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Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

428 points by awb 5y ago

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
space_rock 5y ago
Best outcome is Russians turn to Bitcoin and use it to starve the Russian government of tax income
colsandurz 5y ago
What’s the difference between this and Google Flu trends?
daenz 5y ago
This may very well be true, but I'm having trouble believing anything, from anyone, about the conflict. There is so much propaganda around the subject, that unless you are personally connected to an official source, I believe you can't know with any reasonable certainty. The primary source for this story appears to be public Google Trends data.
- rblk48 5y ago
  Many Blacks, Asians faced racism near Ukraine border. But according to reddit they are all Russian propaganda, some met even with more racist comments. Of course HN cleverly avoided it by not discussing it as all.
- diordiderot 5y ago
  The ole, "the science is unsettled argument" a classic. Repurposed for propaganda very fresh, Tasteful even
- smoldesu 5y ago
  What motivation does Google have to falsify their Trends data? If anything, I think this is more valuable than anecdotal evidence. It's a relatively trustworthy source delivering the same data they always have, and letting you draw the conclusions.
  - stavros 5y ago
    I don't trust the conclusions I draw. The average person is very bad at coming up with explanations, and the pandemic misinformation has illustrated this. "If you die with COVID they put you down as having died from COVID, therefore they're trying to inflate the numbers" is an explanation. If you aren't good at coming up with multiple alternatives and selecting the best one, you're likely to select the one that fits, or the one someone already gave you, and not the real one.
  - slim 5y ago
    maybe someone else is falsifying google trends ?
    - daenz 5y ago
      I can't even confirm their statements, but I may be using google trends wrong: >More Russians are asking Google “how to leave Russia” than have done so in 18 years since such data became public. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=RU&q=how%20to%20leave%20Russia https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&ge...
      - moonshinefe 5y ago
        Why would they be searching in English? Also those numbers are "relative popularity" on a scale of 0-100. I'm seeing what the article claims here, more or less. But it's a little unclear exactly what search terms they were all checking.
        daenz 5y ago
        >Why would they be searching in English? Good point, here's the Russian translation of "how to leave Russia", which doesn't appear to be much different than the English version. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%BA%20%D1%83%D0%B5%D1%85%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%8C%20%D0%B8%D0%B7%20%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B8 https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&ge... EDIT>> This is wrong! My mistake, when I translated, I accidentally switched the source country back to USA.
- bsedlm 5y ago
  it's very counter intuitive, there's so much information that we cannot know anything (for certain) trust is at an all time low and getting lower
- arka2147483647 5y ago
  This is what russian trolls want. So much uncertainty, that you don’t belive anything. Not even truth.
  - droptablemain 5y ago
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      > Seems like most of the disinformation is currently coming from the NATO/Ukraine side. Sure... /s That's probably why the West has just enacted a law that whoever talks about the war in Ukraine in terms of war will face all kinds of trouble. Oh, wait. Really, you can't make this stuff up, do you actually believe that people on HN will read what you say and then dutifully turn to Pravda for their news from now on?
      - vbezhenar 5y ago
        jacquesm 5y ago
        > West countries have similar laws. Sorry, but no, we don't. > They even have an entire culture: Cancel Culture. You are either unaware of what cancel culture means or you are changing the subject. > While I hate every discrimination of speech freedom, you can't paint Russia as something unique, West is an example they follow. I think the repression of the free media in Russia is quite uniquely all it's own. It's the only country that I'm aware of where the head of state gets a dead journalist for their birthday.
        vbezhenar 5y ago
        > Sorry, but no, we don't. https://www.praguemorning.cz/expressing-support-for-russia-or-putin-could-be-prosecuted-in-the-czech-republic/ https://www.praguemorning.cz/expressing-support-for-russia-o... https://spravy.rtvs.sk/2022/02/za-podporu-vojnovej-propagandy-hrozi-az-dozivotie/ https://spravy.rtvs.sk/2022/02/za-podporu-vojnovej-propagand... I don't see any difference. > You are either unaware of what cancel culture means or you are changing the subject. Of course I'm aware what does it means. I'm also aware of "deplatforming" and other ways to silence unpleasing speech. Which could be described as a single word: censorship. > I think the repression of the free media in Russia is quite uniquely all it's own. I thought the same until Europe started to ban Russia Today and other websites. And don't even tell me that it's different. It's a perfectly legal website which tried to present alternative view point. But West is too afraid that its citizens might believe to something other than official propaganda. > It's the only country that I'm aware of where the head of state gets a dead journalist for their birthday. Baseless accusations. I could say that western agents killed him. It's just as likely.
- bluejekyll 5y ago
  And this is the exactly why lies and dis/misinformation are so dangerous to society. It makes every source questionable, even one’s like the economist that have tended to give fairly accurate balanced news. The first amendment is a double edged sword, but all false statements need to be challenged so that a free and Democratic society can function properly. The problem is that lies are cheap to produce, and the truth is expensive to prove. That imbalance of cost is a real struggle to overcome.
  - dolni 5y ago
    Are you suggesting that free speech is responsible for misinformation? The first amendment is absolutely not a double-edged sword. The alternative is STRICTLY worse. You end up with governments, like China's, who lie and challenging that lie is punishable.
    - bluejekyll 5y ago
      It fits a pretty strong definition of a double edged sword. It protects the rights of people say false statements as equally as true statements. The false statements are dangerous as it makes it difficult to make good decisions with it because those are based off of bad information. Calling it a double-edged sword is not meant to say it’s not valuable. It absolutely is. It’s the bedrock of our democracy in the US. The question is only, how do we make sure the truth is more widely known than the lies?
      - dolni 5y ago
        I understand how you're invoking the idea of a double-edged sword. I just don't usually hear it in a context where the alternative is living in dystopia. > The question is only, how do we make sure the truth is more widely known than the lies? Listen to alternative perspectives. Engage with ideas you don't agree with. Be aware of your biases, and other peoples' biases. Defend your perspectives using reason and evidence, not emotion or moral values (note: reason and evidence are the only things we can somewhat objectively agree on; though we still have to be aware of people doing shady stuff with studies and using statistics to misrepresent real-world phenomena). The trend I'm starting to see is that a lot of disconnects stem from ignorance.
- berberous 5y ago
  I generally agree with you for most stories and facts about the war, but this one is just obvious. The ruble has declined and the Russian stock market has been closed all week. Russia has been sanctioned. Russia is sending people to fight in a war. There are rumors (whether true or not) that Russia is planning to close borders, impose martial law, etc. Those are all verifiable facts. In the face of the above, of course people are considering leaving Russia. That is just smart and human nature.
  - daenz 5y ago
    If it was clearly obvious, then why wouldn't the Economist use these other sources directly, instead of leaning so heavily on Google Trends data? It's a flimsy way to present truth.
    - systemvoltage 5y ago
      The Economist is a short-medium form publication. It has excellent reputation. I am wondering about what's causing you to be overly skeptical? Have there been major reputable publications who have misled you (specifically about Russia)?
      - daenz 5y ago
        I mentioned in another comment, and I don't want to spam, but I wasn't able to verify their Google search trends claim, using the source country as Russia, and searching both English and Russian translations of the terms they quoted in the article. EDIT>> This is wrong! I am able to confirm the Google Trends data now.
        mumblemumble 5y ago
        Did you double-check the region in which you're searching? By default it shows trends for where Google thinks you are. I had to use Google Translate to get terms to search in Russian, so take my results with a grain of salt, but, even so, I was generally able to get some nice hockey sticks when I told Google to show me what people in Russia are searching for instead of what Russian-speaking people in the USA are searching for.
- dandanua 5y ago
  To filter a lie you can try to use logic and critical thinking. It's clear that sanctions and isolation are gonna be devastating. Many people joke that Russia is heading towards "stone age". Thus, it's absolutely logical that people just want to flee the sinking battleship.
- Mikeb85 5y ago
  Go on Twitter, Telegram, YouTube, anywhere. You'll see plenty of primary videos and accounts corroborating this. You're right, 1 source alone isn't reliable. But there's a massive body of evidence out there, this whole war has been televised. And the Ukrainian narrative has way more evidence than the Russian one...
  - CyberRabbi 5y ago
    Those are all primarily western platforms. Even if they did show what you are claiming, it wouldn’t prove your point. RT is blocked on Telegram and YouTube for instance.
    - Mikeb85 5y ago
      Telegram is owned by Russians and operated out of Dubai... Western countries have literally warned about it for that reason... Twitter has large shareholders in the Middle East. Also I forgot TikTok. Plenty of vids there. Owned by the Chinese. You can check that out. But hey, keep swallowing that Russian propaganda...
      - CyberRabbi 5y ago
        > But hey, keep swallowing that Russian propaganda... To what exactly are you referring? Everything I wrote in my comment is true. RT is factually banned on Telegram.
    - cguess 5y ago
      Telegram was created by a Russian.
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
      - CyberRabbi 5y ago
        Yet RT is still banned on Telegram.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  Except that there is plenty of evidence that this is really the case. Russians are crossing the border in unprecedented numbers, for instance: https://yle.fi/news/3-12345301 https://yle.fi/news/3-12345301 Flying is getting harder and harder so while the borders are still open (there is talk of martial law in Russia, which, even though it was just denied does not seem to have much effect on calming things down, in fact the denial seems to have the opposite effect), people are getting out via the land, either by car or by train.
  - andi999 5y ago
    I thought you need a schengen visa to enter finland, and there would not have been time to get one from the time the war started. I would like to hear more details on this news.
    - lostmsu 5y ago
      A lot of Russians do have visas they obtained for tourism.
  - daenz 5y ago
    >there is talk of martial law in Russia I want to highlight this, because I think it illustrates my point about propaganda. I dug around for a source on that statement, and this appears the most reliable source[0]. An anonymous EU official picking up on "signs". Again, this also may be totally true, but it's presented in such a flimsy way, how can a reasonable person be expected to believe it at face value? Am I saying the quiet part out loud? Should I not question the propaganda if it is something that I think helps the situation? It's not my nature, but it seems like that's what people are doing. 0. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-says-it-is-picking-up-signs-russia-may-bring-martial-law-2022-03-03/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-says-it-is-picking-u...
    - grey-area 5y ago
      Rumours are not propaganda. No you haven't discovered a vast EU-wide conspiracy or someone 'saying the quiet part out loud'. Nobody knows what is going on and naturally there is lots of speculation to fill the void.
- gostsamo 5y ago
  There was a story on front page yesterday for russian IT specialists who want to get out. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30552091 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30552091
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    There are 100's such stories, all of which center on the very lucky few who still have the means to move themselves around and some hard currency. For the remainder it will be very hard to do anything at all.
    - gostsamo 5y ago
      It will be, but it does not mean that they don't want to try.
- jstx1 5y ago
  You should still believe the reporting of actual events done by the major international news orgs. You don't need to go into opinion pieces or into hypothesizing.
  - qiskit 5y ago
    > You should still believe the reporting of actual events done by the major international news orgs. Would you say we should believe major russian news orgs? Healthy skepticism is required, especially during times of war. There is a reason why each side banned the other's media, social media, etc. So that they can spread propaganda without pushback. The first casualty in war is the truth.
    - jstx1 5y ago
      Skepticism is fine but this isn’t a symmetrical problem where you should treat the two sides equally. Their incentives and credibility aren’t the same.
- vbezhenar 5y ago
  Of course some people would flee from Russia. What's so hard to believe about it? If you can leave country, you don't support the government and it's obvious that conditions are going to be harsh, surely you'd do that and in big country there will be thousands of people in those conditions. Just don't make conclusions like the entire country wants to leave.
- flavius29663 5y ago
  I hope you still believe that Russian is shelling civilian cities, because that is on video
  - hidudeurcool 5y ago
- ransom1538 5y ago
  Really? They all have cellphones now filming it.
- gameswithgo 5y ago
  Don’t fall into the trap of thinking things are unknowable. Madness lies at the extremes of believing everything and believing nothing
  - ModernMech 5y ago
    This is very important. I used to believe that keeping an open mind was the most important thing, so I listened to everything. Sounds great but the problem is it leaves one in a state of complete inaction, because you're never sure of anything, and people use that to their advantage. While you're sitting around trying to figure out the state of things, they are acting on convictions which may not be 100% right but at least they are getting things done, and that means they're going to win. So while it's important to be factually right it's also important to have convictions, even if you can't justify all of them without bias. No matter what any of the media say my conviction with this conflict is that Putin is a psychopath. You can make pretty good predictions about his intent and how the conflict will unfold, and who is doing what, and what atrocities which side are willing to commit, based on that fact alone. For example, everyone who thought he wouldn't invade and was shocked when he did saw him as a tactician rather than a psychopath. If you saw him as a psychopath his invasion of Ukraine was inevitable. The thing that shocked me was how slow-rolling the build-up to an invasion is, and how many people are not willing to call a spade a spade. I thought it had to be done in secret, but you can do it in the open if you just lie to people about your intentions. You have the history of his actions in Syria, Chechnya, and Crimea to know that at least what Western media is saying about Russia has a lot of precedent. Now you could say I'm wrong about that but again that's my conviction and I'll need more than a little proof to sway me from it (because bad actors love to use just a little bit yet deceiving proof to sway people from their loosely held convictions)
- jdrc 5y ago
  it s not like there are no checks at airports, it should be obvious if there is a trend
- skeletal88 5y ago
  I live in Estonia. If I see news reports where they interview people from the border guard who say that there are more border crossings than usual, owner of coach company says that they have added more trips to St. Petersburg and number of russians traveling has increased, also Russian-owned bus companies have added more trips to Estonia, where busses leaving here are alomst empty but packed full of travelers when leaving St. Petersburg. Also bus companies have said that more people travel with pets or large luggage. Are they all lying? https://news.err.ee/1608521780/passenger-numbers-on-lux-express-st-petersburg-tallinn-routes-double https://news.err.ee/1608521780/passenger-numbers-on-lux-expr...
  - roveo 5y ago
    Also Estonia isn't a prime destination for Russians in this situation. Countries that don't require a visa are. Yesterday 42 passenger planes landed in Yerevan (Armenia), normal number being 3-4 daily.
  - vertis 5y ago
    I had wondered how welcoming Estonia was being to Russians at the moment. I suggested a couple of Russians that are leaving reach out and ask, because Estonia is one of my favourite countries in the world and I had faith that you would be helping Russians flee. Hopefully, I will get to come visit again once this all calms down.
- lmeyerov 5y ago
  Official sources are less reliable: Russia is heavy on propaganda at the state and media levels, and destination country reports will be spiky, slow, or nonexistent. This presentation is interesting because it is a data presentation that is large, direct, and open: Of Russian IPs using a Google, search terms associated with leaving are going up, even pre-war. Your own research can now be on alternative hypotheses like maybe Google became that much more popular in the last few months in spikey per-keyword patterns, or that the Russian population using Google is big (some X%) but has opposite beliefs of all non-Google users. For both, you can check against something like Yandex, which has a similar feature.
therusskiy 5y ago
I managed to escape the country yesterday, had to flight to Egypt of all places, because ALL (even business) tickets were sold out. The recent news is that starting March 6 all international flights are suspended, the trap has closed. The disheartening thing is that even if you never supported Putin, other countries treat you as enemy. I am at Georgia now and banks refuse to open bank accounts to Russians, and I need one to continue working as a remote dev for US companies. Older generation (who are pro-Russian) suggested being careful around young people as they may be hostile to Russians, even those who are running away from Putin. A lot of my IT friends have fled the country, almost everyone who could. My heart is bleeding thinking of friends who wanted to leave on March 9, not sure what they can do now.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- pelasaco 5y ago
  go back home and fight for freedom. You are the only one that can stop Putin.
  - cpsns 5y ago
    I can pretty much guarantee most of the people commenting things like this wouldn't risk their lives to do the same. It's very easy to type it out and pretend in your imagination, but reality is quite a different matter.
  - dang 5y ago
    That crosses into personal attack and is not allowed here. No more of this, please, regardless of how right your views are or you feel they are. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
    - tablespoon 5y ago
      > That crosses into personal attack and is not allowed here. Speaking of personal attacks, could you take a look at these comments? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30558831 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30558831 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30559742 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30559742
tartoran 5y ago
The fight against Ukraine is also to set an example to the states that want to separate from Russia.
331c8c71 5y ago
Haven't read the article but it's true that people are leaving. Some IT companies are relocating their employees in a company-wide efforts. Obviously not an option for everyone. The sanctions will be hardest for people will low income e.g. elderlies without family to support them. Also in the last 10-15 years there was quite a (non-governmental) movement to support kids with rare diseases or generally with complicated conditions. This becomes much more complicated I guess if just for the FX rate.
sAbakumoff 5y ago
Right, on March 8th two largest Russian airlines suspend all international flights. People get the hell out of Russia while they can.
- viktorcode 5y ago
  They were sanctioned, so they had to.
ridaj 5y ago
Instead of Google trends, it would be interesting to see how this shows up in geolocation datasets
mkl95 5y ago
There's nothing surprising about it. There is at least one recent, well documented case of mass emigration due to the economic collapse of an authoritarian regime. Millions of people have left Venezuela since the late 2000s [1]. Considering Russia is barely richer than Spain whilst having 3x the population and the fact it's about to get much worse, I would expect millions of Russians to leave in the next few years. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_in_Venezuela https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_in_Venezuela
- chrisweekly 5y ago
  Agreed. tiny nitpick: immigration -> emigration
- MattGaiser 5y ago
  And consider throughout history what people have done when their government got more authoritarian and their nation's economy collapsed. Or just when the latter happens. I am quite intrigued at those who doubt this of all stories.
- formvoltron 5y ago
  Seems like now could be a smart time to get back to Venezuela. Where are these 10M barrels going to come from for the west? And now you have Saudis not entirely taking USA's side in this conflict.
  - jeffbee 5y ago
    You'd have to capture Venezuela and install American or Saudi oil companies to make it work. The Venezuelan petro infrastructure is in complete disarray. Active rigs in that country hit zero and production was near zero at the end of 2020. Anyway, pumping out Venezuela is the worst idea imaginable. That carbon needs to stay in the ground. If you want to stick it to the Russians, deploy a national workforce installing solar panels all over Germany and Italy, then dynamite the Russian gas pipelines.
    - diordiderot 5y ago
justinator 5y ago
"Russians are trying to flee Putin’s chaos" We all are.
jmyeet 5y ago
Russia is seizing foreign currency reserves (effectively, by forcing conversion to the ruble) held by average Russian citizens. These sanctions are going to be a bad time for them. There are no military options so what else can you do? Still, we shouldn't forget that sanctions are a form of collective punishment that disproportionately affect average citizens. My faint glimmer of hope here is that the West finally takes actions to stop enabling oligarchs and they can start with denying them real estate in Western urban centers (primarily London and NYC). The UK too could enforce disclosure of who the beneficial owner is for an LLC, something they're meant to do but are incredibly lax about. The US in pareticular seems to be compltely fine with civil forfeiture (which, for the record, is a disgusting practice that targets people who can't fight back). The least we could do is seize the assets of oligarchs, particularly when identified as having enriched themselves from state theft. I'm not that hopeful. As for the Russians trying to escape, I would too, just like I would if I were in Ukraine right now. Best of luck to both groups.
- sAbakumoff 5y ago
  >> My faint glimmer of hope here is that the West finally takes actions to stop enabling oligarchs and they can start with denying them real estate in Western urban centers Recently, Italy seized real estate and other properties of Russian oligarchs and their lackeys, worth ~$150M.
  - fallingfrog 5y ago
    Wish they’d start doing the same with our own oligarchs. Every superyacht is a crime against our children. The amount of resources those absorb that could have been spent combating global warming, on health care, on housing, is just absolutely disgusting. Not to mention the 10000 dollar bottles of champagne, the massive mansions.. so gross. And if you don’t think we have oligarchs.. why do you think you pay 200 dollars for a vial of insulin? Where do you think all that money goes?
    - jotm 5y ago
      They need to be properly taxed, but then again they are the ones making the rules, so that's hard... However all the luxury shit is made by "normal" people, there's a lot of profit in selling $1000 bottles of wine and underpants to the idiots who would buy them.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
peter_retief 5y ago
I dont blame them, South Africa is quite far away and friendly to Russians.
fallingfrog 5y ago
I’d be wary of hoping for a popular revolt against Putin- typically when people in a country feel under attack they rally in support of whoever the leadership is. Look at George bush’s approval rating right after 9/11. When people are scared they look to whoever is in charge to protect them. This might be an exception to the extent that Russians feel that the wounds were self-inflicted. But they may also start calling for retaliation against the west, if they feel that their country is being attacked unfairly. It’s hard to say.
optimalonpaper 5y ago
No one thinks that a regular Ivan from some russian city (on his own) is responsible for the war and should suffer. And I see how you could (and probably should, at some level) feel sorry for russians fleeing the country. But this is the only way to tell them that they -- collective Ivans, Russian society as a whole -- should stand up and act: they should articulate their content, they should protest against putin's policy, and they should stop the war (an alternative would be to accept Ukraine to NATO and finish this war is a day, but that won't happen). While they're suffering economically, the suffering of Ukrainians is just on another level -- it's not about restrictions (e.g. no ikea or facebook or apple products) or money (inflation), it's about flattened cities and destroyed lives. I woke up as I heard bombs falling on my city, and I definitely haven't felt any sympathy for russians since then. If they feel they don't support their country's aggression towards Ukraine, they should go protest and stop it -- even at risk of being fined or imprisoned. Otherwise they should just embrace all sanctions and become North Korea imho.
- bitcharmer 5y ago
  Judging by the number of Russians taking the easy way out by just fleeing or complaining about the evil west closing their Ikea stores this nation at the moment has zero capacity to take responsibility for their own government. I'm afraid it has to get much worse before it gets better. They still don't understand that as much as the government is responsible for its people, the people are also responsible for their government. Putin didn't magically appear on the political scene with all the power he has now. Russians allowed Putin to happen; now they refuse to take responsibility.
  - vlaaad 5y ago
    Why would I take responsibility for something I have zero influence over? He did just appear when Yeltsin said that he's leaving. He blatantly fakes elections: 146% support is a very telling result of one of these elections. It is a meme in Russia because when you can't do anything about it you can only laugh or cry. His 20 years on the throne are a constant stream of murders, poisoning and jailing of people who try to do something about it, and their friends, and their families. I'm just a normal person, I want to live a normal live with my wife and kids, I didn't choose any of that. Why do I have to risk going to jail for 15 years for mentioning that war is war, only because I was born on the wrong side of the border?
pelasaco 5y ago
The only people that can stop Putin are the russian People.
pintxo 5y ago
I was wondering before if this whole “special operation” is a 1961 thing? Remember der Berlin Wall? The local communists had no compelling story to offer to their population so especiallz the young and well educated voted with their feet and migrated westwards. Essentially leaving the German Democratic Republic with few options, the one they took was basically imprisonment of the remaining population, to prevent any further brain-drain. Is this whole shit we have witnessed over the last days Putins realization that he has nothing of value to offer to the population? And that he therefore cannot allow a culturally well connected big western style democracy at his side? With all the connections between Russia and Ukrain, this would be like a massive advertisement what Russians are missing out. Food for thought.
egao1980 5y ago
There are some people who would see this as an opportunity to abuse EU migration laws. Some people fear to lose their outsourcing jobs. But the numbers are low. Also West is definitely attacking Russians and not Russian government now. How on Earth cancelling Dostoevski, Chekvhov and Tchaikovski is going to stop the war and change Russian government policies? It resembles more to me some early XX century antisemitism that was rampant in Europe.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
verygreen9487 5y ago
I find it strange that so many people in these threads keep saying things like "go home and fight putin." Imagine if this had been the western response to the German physicists to whom we offered refuge before/during World War II. When the intellectual capital of your enemy is trying to come over to your side, turning them away out of spite isn't "being tough" or "holding people accountable" - it's just counterproductive.
- diordiderot 5y ago
  Solid take. We should offer visas with moving bonus for every stem master / phd
  - cutemonster 5y ago
    And everyone who refuses to serve in Putin's army (then he gets fewer soldiers to attack with)
AnonHP 5y ago
The number of people who can flee and are able and/or willing to do it must be a tiny percentage, no? Among those, many may also be privileged in certain ways to actually do it. I wonder how those who are left behind (or stay behind) may react. This whole situation is very messy, and it’s difficult (for me) to see how this will shape up, when the conflict will end, and at what cost.
option 5y ago
I feel bad for the Russians who oppose putin. Anecdotal story: I am originally from Ukraine (now a US citizen) and currently host 2 Ukrainian refugees (relatives of mine). Yesterday we were walking in Santa Barbara, CA chatting in Russian (our native language). An angry American passed by listening to some Ukraine-Russian news on his phone (via speakers), recognized we speak Russian and angrily told us something along the lines of us having to go back to Russia …
- jotm 5y ago
  Just say "Slava Ukraine" heh, it seems to have become a rallying cry and a way to immediately see where most Russian speakers stand.
- snek_case 5y ago
  That sucks and I'm sorry you had to endure that. If it happens again, I would encourage you to just tell them "we are from Ukraine!", they might realize how stupid they are being and hopefully be a bit more careful next time they want to pass judgment. It's hard, but it is possible to change (some) people's mind, even with small interventions. Worth a try IMO. I wish you and your relatives the best. Long live Ukraine.
- heneryville 5y ago
  If you're aware of any other refugees Ukrainian or Russian, that need a place in the USA, please let me know. My understanding is that the US is not letting in refugees yet though.
  - option 5y ago
    Your understanding is correct atm. USA offers «concern” and “support”, colors airport in Ukraine’s flag (SFO). But they still must have visa, insurance, and Covid test to enter. My family were even asked why they don’t have return tickets.
asimpletune 5y ago
I'm in Istanbul right now, and it's absolutely full of young Russians who've escaped. Random people who don't even know each other are hugging and crying all the time. They've also been treated very well by the Turks. One lady in a hostel was just totally flustered trying to figure out how to accommodate a Russian family with kids at the last minute. Just another eye-witness perspective.
- cutemonster 5y ago
  I wish the EU would welcome Russians who flee from Putin, in the same way. (If young men cannot leave, doesn't that mean more people that Putin can try to force to join his army)
  - asimpletune 5y ago
    Yeah, I think if the goal is to wield soft pressure, then actually providing increased incentives to leave would advance that cause better. In any case, all the people here seem to be hipster-type, college educated intelligentsia from St. Petersburg and the like. Most I’ve talked to do something tech related.
blueyes 5y ago
I've been told by people inside that Russian citizens are trying desperately to leave the country for three main reasons: 1) They do not want to be conscripted to fight in Putin's war. 2) The Western sanctions are impacting Russia's economy at every level. Western companies are cutting them off from goods and services they rely on. Those who experienced life behind the Iron Curtain do not want to live behind it again. The iPhone curtain... 3) Russia is transitioning from an authoritarian state to a totalitarian state. In Moscow now, there are reports that FSB officers checking Russian travelers' phones in airports, to make sure they are not breaking the new censorship laws regarding information about the war.
- axiosgunnar 5y ago
  > The iPhone curtain If one could invest in slogans that will soon be in every history book, I would go all in on this one :-)
  - awb 5y ago
    Domain names and social media handles maybe?
SXX 5y ago
I escaped from Russia on 25th of February. We bought tickets immediately after bombings started. Since I been in Rostov on Don our airport was closed so we have to take train and then flight to Istanbul. Some of my close friends already joined me here and some strongly consider taking same route as well. Though it's could be too late for them... I never supported Putin and did what I could to support our opposition leaders - both Navalny and Maxim Katz. I suported them financially, but yeah I did not participate in protests on streets and I certainly wond not do it if there was a risk to spend next 15 years in prison. PS: I have to look for a job that offer some kind of relocation since my current game development project only lasts till August and I'm not sure what to do next. I have 10+ years of experience with a bit of everything, but recently mostly frontend with TypeScript / Angular / Vue and backend with Java / Spring Boot or PHP / Laravel.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
alex239 5y ago
I am trying to find a way to escape now, and it gets harder every day. Land borders are still closed for a formal reason (COVID) and most likely will never open again. Unfortunately state television (the only television available for the most people) has been persistently making an enemy out of Ukraine since 2014. I don't know how it works, but propaganda can erase brains. The elderly and the poorly educated peolple really think that Ukraine is full of fascists and nazis who kill Russians. Orwell as is. it's horrible. On the other hand my friend who was protesting against the war was severely beaten by the police. The most disgusting thing is that Putin has apparently lost touch with reality and can really press the button. He has absolute power in Russia. He is a psychopath. Things are very bad.
- SSLy 5y ago
  My acquaintance escaped via bus to Estonia yesterday.
user-one1 5y ago
For any Russians reading this, Uruguay has an open border policy for immigrants who want to come to live here. There's already a small Russian community here and it will be easy to settle.
itwillnotbeasy 5y ago
Leaving not because of the crimes of the current regime but because of the sanctions affecting their quality of life. I had many online "friends" and distant relatives from Russia, and most of them is like "not my business", i don't care about politics, even when you show pictures with all horrors of war. The other part is like: I'm against this, but what can we do, it's too risky to protest, i can get arrested for 14 days. Whereas in Ukraine: unarmed people stopping tanks at risk of being killed. Mind-blowing how different our nations is. So don't worry much about people who can't leave country now, they are complicit in their inaction no less than the regime itself.
- purecoolnesss 5y ago
  There are apolitical people in every country, no? These people maximise their own benefit (aka capitalism) without caring about others (aka socialism?) There are also patriotic people like those Ukranians you mentioned that stayed and are fighting. Unfortunately many of the patriotic Russians support the war and they don't care as much about quality of life. What is happening is kind of like you living in a neighbourhood your whole life and then some thugs move in. Now all of a sudden you don't get mail because the post is scared of those thugs. You can fight the thugs or you can move to a neighbourhood where you can get your mail.
- jpindar 5y ago
  >can get arrested for 14 days How sure of that are you? Some of Russians who are leaving claim it's years, and whatever the letter of the law is, do you trust the Russian government that much?
throw-ru-938 5y ago
I am one of these Russians. Or should I say I was, because just moments ago Visa and Mastercard stopped all operations in Russia, and this essentially left us without any money except the (meagre) cash we could withdraw back in Russia. It really feels the trap is closing in around me right now.
smugglerFlynn 5y ago
We are actively trying to help Russian IT specialists to flee. We had over 300 resumes submitted by different people in our Telegram community in just two days. Most of these are senior people, many with experience in Yandex, local branches of Google and other international companies. I wrote about the situation here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30552091 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30552091 If anyone can help us get these people out — please step forward, all information is in the post. 30+ recruiters are already working with us, but that is not enough.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- chanpreetkaur 5y ago
  Hiring

428 points by awb 5y ago

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

space_rock 5y ago

Best outcome is Russians turn to Bitcoin and use it to starve the Russian government of tax income

colsandurz 5y ago

What’s the difference between this and Google Flu trends?

daenz 5y ago

This may very well be true, but I'm having trouble believing anything, from anyone, about the conflict. There is so much propaganda around the subject, that unless you are personally connected to an official source, I believe you can't know with any reasonable certainty. The primary source for this story appears to be public Google Trends data.

rblk48 5y ago
Many Blacks, Asians faced racism near Ukraine border. But according to reddit they are all Russian propaganda, some met even with more racist comments. Of course HN cleverly avoided it by not discussing it as all.
diordiderot 5y ago
The ole, "the science is unsettled argument" a classic. Repurposed for propaganda very fresh, Tasteful even
smoldesu 5y ago
What motivation does Google have to falsify their Trends data? If anything, I think this is more valuable than anecdotal evidence. It's a relatively trustworthy source delivering the same data they always have, and letting you draw the conclusions.
- stavros 5y ago
  I don't trust the conclusions I draw. The average person is very bad at coming up with explanations, and the pandemic misinformation has illustrated this. "If you die with COVID they put you down as having died from COVID, therefore they're trying to inflate the numbers" is an explanation. If you aren't good at coming up with multiple alternatives and selecting the best one, you're likely to select the one that fits, or the one someone already gave you, and not the real one.
- slim 5y ago
  maybe someone else is falsifying google trends ?
  - daenz 5y ago
    I can't even confirm their statements, but I may be using google trends wrong: >More Russians are asking Google “how to leave Russia” than have done so in 18 years since such data became public. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=RU&q=how%20to%20leave%20Russia https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&ge...
    - moonshinefe 5y ago
      Why would they be searching in English? Also those numbers are "relative popularity" on a scale of 0-100. I'm seeing what the article claims here, more or less. But it's a little unclear exactly what search terms they were all checking.
      - daenz 5y ago
        >Why would they be searching in English? Good point, here's the Russian translation of "how to leave Russia", which doesn't appear to be much different than the English version. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%BA%20%D1%83%D0%B5%D1%85%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%8C%20%D0%B8%D0%B7%20%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B8 https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&ge... EDIT>> This is wrong! My mistake, when I translated, I accidentally switched the source country back to USA.
bsedlm 5y ago
it's very counter intuitive, there's so much information that we cannot know anything (for certain) trust is at an all time low and getting lower
arka2147483647 5y ago
This is what russian trolls want. So much uncertainty, that you don’t belive anything. Not even truth.
- droptablemain 5y ago
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    > Seems like most of the disinformation is currently coming from the NATO/Ukraine side. Sure... /s That's probably why the West has just enacted a law that whoever talks about the war in Ukraine in terms of war will face all kinds of trouble. Oh, wait. Really, you can't make this stuff up, do you actually believe that people on HN will read what you say and then dutifully turn to Pravda for their news from now on?
    - vbezhenar 5y ago
      - jacquesm 5y ago
        > West countries have similar laws. Sorry, but no, we don't. > They even have an entire culture: Cancel Culture. You are either unaware of what cancel culture means or you are changing the subject. > While I hate every discrimination of speech freedom, you can't paint Russia as something unique, West is an example they follow. I think the repression of the free media in Russia is quite uniquely all it's own. It's the only country that I'm aware of where the head of state gets a dead journalist for their birthday.
        vbezhenar 5y ago
        > Sorry, but no, we don't. https://www.praguemorning.cz/expressing-support-for-russia-or-putin-could-be-prosecuted-in-the-czech-republic/ https://www.praguemorning.cz/expressing-support-for-russia-o... https://spravy.rtvs.sk/2022/02/za-podporu-vojnovej-propagandy-hrozi-az-dozivotie/ https://spravy.rtvs.sk/2022/02/za-podporu-vojnovej-propagand... I don't see any difference. > You are either unaware of what cancel culture means or you are changing the subject. Of course I'm aware what does it means. I'm also aware of "deplatforming" and other ways to silence unpleasing speech. Which could be described as a single word: censorship. > I think the repression of the free media in Russia is quite uniquely all it's own. I thought the same until Europe started to ban Russia Today and other websites. And don't even tell me that it's different. It's a perfectly legal website which tried to present alternative view point. But West is too afraid that its citizens might believe to something other than official propaganda. > It's the only country that I'm aware of where the head of state gets a dead journalist for their birthday. Baseless accusations. I could say that western agents killed him. It's just as likely.
bluejekyll 5y ago
And this is the exactly why lies and dis/misinformation are so dangerous to society. It makes every source questionable, even one’s like the economist that have tended to give fairly accurate balanced news. The first amendment is a double edged sword, but all false statements need to be challenged so that a free and Democratic society can function properly. The problem is that lies are cheap to produce, and the truth is expensive to prove. That imbalance of cost is a real struggle to overcome.
- dolni 5y ago
  Are you suggesting that free speech is responsible for misinformation? The first amendment is absolutely not a double-edged sword. The alternative is STRICTLY worse. You end up with governments, like China's, who lie and challenging that lie is punishable.
  - bluejekyll 5y ago
    It fits a pretty strong definition of a double edged sword. It protects the rights of people say false statements as equally as true statements. The false statements are dangerous as it makes it difficult to make good decisions with it because those are based off of bad information. Calling it a double-edged sword is not meant to say it’s not valuable. It absolutely is. It’s the bedrock of our democracy in the US. The question is only, how do we make sure the truth is more widely known than the lies?
    - dolni 5y ago
      I understand how you're invoking the idea of a double-edged sword. I just don't usually hear it in a context where the alternative is living in dystopia. > The question is only, how do we make sure the truth is more widely known than the lies? Listen to alternative perspectives. Engage with ideas you don't agree with. Be aware of your biases, and other peoples' biases. Defend your perspectives using reason and evidence, not emotion or moral values (note: reason and evidence are the only things we can somewhat objectively agree on; though we still have to be aware of people doing shady stuff with studies and using statistics to misrepresent real-world phenomena). The trend I'm starting to see is that a lot of disconnects stem from ignorance.
berberous 5y ago
I generally agree with you for most stories and facts about the war, but this one is just obvious. The ruble has declined and the Russian stock market has been closed all week. Russia has been sanctioned. Russia is sending people to fight in a war. There are rumors (whether true or not) that Russia is planning to close borders, impose martial law, etc. Those are all verifiable facts. In the face of the above, of course people are considering leaving Russia. That is just smart and human nature.
- daenz 5y ago
  If it was clearly obvious, then why wouldn't the Economist use these other sources directly, instead of leaning so heavily on Google Trends data? It's a flimsy way to present truth.
  - systemvoltage 5y ago
    The Economist is a short-medium form publication. It has excellent reputation. I am wondering about what's causing you to be overly skeptical? Have there been major reputable publications who have misled you (specifically about Russia)?
    - daenz 5y ago
      I mentioned in another comment, and I don't want to spam, but I wasn't able to verify their Google search trends claim, using the source country as Russia, and searching both English and Russian translations of the terms they quoted in the article. EDIT>> This is wrong! I am able to confirm the Google Trends data now.
      - mumblemumble 5y ago
        Did you double-check the region in which you're searching? By default it shows trends for where Google thinks you are. I had to use Google Translate to get terms to search in Russian, so take my results with a grain of salt, but, even so, I was generally able to get some nice hockey sticks when I told Google to show me what people in Russia are searching for instead of what Russian-speaking people in the USA are searching for.
dandanua 5y ago
To filter a lie you can try to use logic and critical thinking. It's clear that sanctions and isolation are gonna be devastating. Many people joke that Russia is heading towards "stone age". Thus, it's absolutely logical that people just want to flee the sinking battleship.
Mikeb85 5y ago
Go on Twitter, Telegram, YouTube, anywhere. You'll see plenty of primary videos and accounts corroborating this. You're right, 1 source alone isn't reliable. But there's a massive body of evidence out there, this whole war has been televised. And the Ukrainian narrative has way more evidence than the Russian one...
- CyberRabbi 5y ago
  Those are all primarily western platforms. Even if they did show what you are claiming, it wouldn’t prove your point. RT is blocked on Telegram and YouTube for instance.
  - Mikeb85 5y ago
    Telegram is owned by Russians and operated out of Dubai... Western countries have literally warned about it for that reason... Twitter has large shareholders in the Middle East. Also I forgot TikTok. Plenty of vids there. Owned by the Chinese. You can check that out. But hey, keep swallowing that Russian propaganda...
    - CyberRabbi 5y ago
      > But hey, keep swallowing that Russian propaganda... To what exactly are you referring? Everything I wrote in my comment is true. RT is factually banned on Telegram.
  - cguess 5y ago
    Telegram was created by a Russian.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - CyberRabbi 5y ago
      Yet RT is still banned on Telegram.
jacquesm 5y ago
Except that there is plenty of evidence that this is really the case. Russians are crossing the border in unprecedented numbers, for instance: https://yle.fi/news/3-12345301 https://yle.fi/news/3-12345301 Flying is getting harder and harder so while the borders are still open (there is talk of martial law in Russia, which, even though it was just denied does not seem to have much effect on calming things down, in fact the denial seems to have the opposite effect), people are getting out via the land, either by car or by train.
- andi999 5y ago
  I thought you need a schengen visa to enter finland, and there would not have been time to get one from the time the war started. I would like to hear more details on this news.
  - lostmsu 5y ago
    A lot of Russians do have visas they obtained for tourism.
- daenz 5y ago
  >there is talk of martial law in Russia I want to highlight this, because I think it illustrates my point about propaganda. I dug around for a source on that statement, and this appears the most reliable source[0]. An anonymous EU official picking up on "signs". Again, this also may be totally true, but it's presented in such a flimsy way, how can a reasonable person be expected to believe it at face value? Am I saying the quiet part out loud? Should I not question the propaganda if it is something that I think helps the situation? It's not my nature, but it seems like that's what people are doing. 0. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-says-it-is-picking-up-signs-russia-may-bring-martial-law-2022-03-03/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-says-it-is-picking-u...
  - grey-area 5y ago
    Rumours are not propaganda. No you haven't discovered a vast EU-wide conspiracy or someone 'saying the quiet part out loud'. Nobody knows what is going on and naturally there is lots of speculation to fill the void.
gostsamo 5y ago
There was a story on front page yesterday for russian IT specialists who want to get out. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30552091 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30552091
- jacquesm 5y ago
  There are 100's such stories, all of which center on the very lucky few who still have the means to move themselves around and some hard currency. For the remainder it will be very hard to do anything at all.
  - gostsamo 5y ago
    It will be, but it does not mean that they don't want to try.
jstx1 5y ago
You should still believe the reporting of actual events done by the major international news orgs. You don't need to go into opinion pieces or into hypothesizing.
- qiskit 5y ago
  > You should still believe the reporting of actual events done by the major international news orgs. Would you say we should believe major russian news orgs? Healthy skepticism is required, especially during times of war. There is a reason why each side banned the other's media, social media, etc. So that they can spread propaganda without pushback. The first casualty in war is the truth.
  - jstx1 5y ago
    Skepticism is fine but this isn’t a symmetrical problem where you should treat the two sides equally. Their incentives and credibility aren’t the same.
vbezhenar 5y ago
Of course some people would flee from Russia. What's so hard to believe about it? If you can leave country, you don't support the government and it's obvious that conditions are going to be harsh, surely you'd do that and in big country there will be thousands of people in those conditions. Just don't make conclusions like the entire country wants to leave.
flavius29663 5y ago
I hope you still believe that Russian is shelling civilian cities, because that is on video
- hidudeurcool 5y ago
ransom1538 5y ago
Really? They all have cellphones now filming it.
gameswithgo 5y ago
Don’t fall into the trap of thinking things are unknowable. Madness lies at the extremes of believing everything and believing nothing
- ModernMech 5y ago
  This is very important. I used to believe that keeping an open mind was the most important thing, so I listened to everything. Sounds great but the problem is it leaves one in a state of complete inaction, because you're never sure of anything, and people use that to their advantage. While you're sitting around trying to figure out the state of things, they are acting on convictions which may not be 100% right but at least they are getting things done, and that means they're going to win. So while it's important to be factually right it's also important to have convictions, even if you can't justify all of them without bias. No matter what any of the media say my conviction with this conflict is that Putin is a psychopath. You can make pretty good predictions about his intent and how the conflict will unfold, and who is doing what, and what atrocities which side are willing to commit, based on that fact alone. For example, everyone who thought he wouldn't invade and was shocked when he did saw him as a tactician rather than a psychopath. If you saw him as a psychopath his invasion of Ukraine was inevitable. The thing that shocked me was how slow-rolling the build-up to an invasion is, and how many people are not willing to call a spade a spade. I thought it had to be done in secret, but you can do it in the open if you just lie to people about your intentions. You have the history of his actions in Syria, Chechnya, and Crimea to know that at least what Western media is saying about Russia has a lot of precedent. Now you could say I'm wrong about that but again that's my conviction and I'll need more than a little proof to sway me from it (because bad actors love to use just a little bit yet deceiving proof to sway people from their loosely held convictions)
jdrc 5y ago
it s not like there are no checks at airports, it should be obvious if there is a trend
skeletal88 5y ago
I live in Estonia. If I see news reports where they interview people from the border guard who say that there are more border crossings than usual, owner of coach company says that they have added more trips to St. Petersburg and number of russians traveling has increased, also Russian-owned bus companies have added more trips to Estonia, where busses leaving here are alomst empty but packed full of travelers when leaving St. Petersburg. Also bus companies have said that more people travel with pets or large luggage. Are they all lying? https://news.err.ee/1608521780/passenger-numbers-on-lux-express-st-petersburg-tallinn-routes-double https://news.err.ee/1608521780/passenger-numbers-on-lux-expr...
- roveo 5y ago
  Also Estonia isn't a prime destination for Russians in this situation. Countries that don't require a visa are. Yesterday 42 passenger planes landed in Yerevan (Armenia), normal number being 3-4 daily.
- vertis 5y ago
  I had wondered how welcoming Estonia was being to Russians at the moment. I suggested a couple of Russians that are leaving reach out and ask, because Estonia is one of my favourite countries in the world and I had faith that you would be helping Russians flee. Hopefully, I will get to come visit again once this all calms down.
lmeyerov 5y ago
Official sources are less reliable: Russia is heavy on propaganda at the state and media levels, and destination country reports will be spiky, slow, or nonexistent. This presentation is interesting because it is a data presentation that is large, direct, and open: Of Russian IPs using a Google, search terms associated with leaving are going up, even pre-war. Your own research can now be on alternative hypotheses like maybe Google became that much more popular in the last few months in spikey per-keyword patterns, or that the Russian population using Google is big (some X%) but has opposite beliefs of all non-Google users. For both, you can check against something like Yandex, which has a similar feature.

therusskiy 5y ago

I managed to escape the country yesterday, had to flight to Egypt of all places, because ALL (even business) tickets were sold out. The recent news is that starting March 6 all international flights are suspended, the trap has closed. The disheartening thing is that even if you never supported Putin, other countries treat you as enemy. I am at Georgia now and banks refuse to open bank accounts to Russians, and I need one to continue working as a remote dev for US companies. Older generation (who are pro-Russian) suggested being careful around young people as they may be hostile to Russians, even those who are running away from Putin. A lot of my IT friends have fled the country, almost everyone who could. My heart is bleeding thinking of friends who wanted to leave on March 9, not sure what they can do now.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
pelasaco 5y ago
go back home and fight for freedom. You are the only one that can stop Putin.
- cpsns 5y ago
  I can pretty much guarantee most of the people commenting things like this wouldn't risk their lives to do the same. It's very easy to type it out and pretend in your imagination, but reality is quite a different matter.
- dang 5y ago
  That crosses into personal attack and is not allowed here. No more of this, please, regardless of how right your views are or you feel they are. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
  - tablespoon 5y ago
    > That crosses into personal attack and is not allowed here. Speaking of personal attacks, could you take a look at these comments? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30558831 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30558831 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30559742 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30559742

tartoran 5y ago

The fight against Ukraine is also to set an example to the states that want to separate from Russia.

331c8c71 5y ago

Haven't read the article but it's true that people are leaving. Some IT companies are relocating their employees in a company-wide efforts. Obviously not an option for everyone. The sanctions will be hardest for people will low income e.g. elderlies without family to support them. Also in the last 10-15 years there was quite a (non-governmental) movement to support kids with rare diseases or generally with complicated conditions. This becomes much more complicated I guess if just for the FX rate.

sAbakumoff 5y ago

Right, on March 8th two largest Russian airlines suspend all international flights. People get the hell out of Russia while they can.

viktorcode 5y ago
They were sanctioned, so they had to.

ridaj 5y ago

Instead of Google trends, it would be interesting to see how this shows up in geolocation datasets

mkl95 5y ago

There's nothing surprising about it. There is at least one recent, well documented case of mass emigration due to the economic collapse of an authoritarian regime. Millions of people have left Venezuela since the late 2000s [1]. Considering Russia is barely richer than Spain whilst having 3x the population and the fact it's about to get much worse, I would expect millions of Russians to leave in the next few years. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_in_Venezuela https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_in_Venezuela

chrisweekly 5y ago
Agreed. tiny nitpick: immigration -> emigration
MattGaiser 5y ago
And consider throughout history what people have done when their government got more authoritarian and their nation's economy collapsed. Or just when the latter happens. I am quite intrigued at those who doubt this of all stories.
formvoltron 5y ago
Seems like now could be a smart time to get back to Venezuela. Where are these 10M barrels going to come from for the west? And now you have Saudis not entirely taking USA's side in this conflict.
- jeffbee 5y ago
  You'd have to capture Venezuela and install American or Saudi oil companies to make it work. The Venezuelan petro infrastructure is in complete disarray. Active rigs in that country hit zero and production was near zero at the end of 2020. Anyway, pumping out Venezuela is the worst idea imaginable. That carbon needs to stay in the ground. If you want to stick it to the Russians, deploy a national workforce installing solar panels all over Germany and Italy, then dynamite the Russian gas pipelines.
  - diordiderot 5y ago

justinator 5y ago

"Russians are trying to flee Putin’s chaos" We all are.

jmyeet 5y ago

Russia is seizing foreign currency reserves (effectively, by forcing conversion to the ruble) held by average Russian citizens. These sanctions are going to be a bad time for them. There are no military options so what else can you do? Still, we shouldn't forget that sanctions are a form of collective punishment that disproportionately affect average citizens. My faint glimmer of hope here is that the West finally takes actions to stop enabling oligarchs and they can start with denying them real estate in Western urban centers (primarily London and NYC). The UK too could enforce disclosure of who the beneficial owner is for an LLC, something they're meant to do but are incredibly lax about. The US in pareticular seems to be compltely fine with civil forfeiture (which, for the record, is a disgusting practice that targets people who can't fight back). The least we could do is seize the assets of oligarchs, particularly when identified as having enriched themselves from state theft. I'm not that hopeful. As for the Russians trying to escape, I would too, just like I would if I were in Ukraine right now. Best of luck to both groups.

sAbakumoff 5y ago
>> My faint glimmer of hope here is that the West finally takes actions to stop enabling oligarchs and they can start with denying them real estate in Western urban centers Recently, Italy seized real estate and other properties of Russian oligarchs and their lackeys, worth ~$150M.
- fallingfrog 5y ago
  Wish they’d start doing the same with our own oligarchs. Every superyacht is a crime against our children. The amount of resources those absorb that could have been spent combating global warming, on health care, on housing, is just absolutely disgusting. Not to mention the 10000 dollar bottles of champagne, the massive mansions.. so gross. And if you don’t think we have oligarchs.. why do you think you pay 200 dollars for a vial of insulin? Where do you think all that money goes?
  - jotm 5y ago
    They need to be properly taxed, but then again they are the ones making the rules, so that's hard... However all the luxury shit is made by "normal" people, there's a lot of profit in selling $1000 bottles of wine and underpants to the idiots who would buy them.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

peter_retief 5y ago

I dont blame them, South Africa is quite far away and friendly to Russians.

fallingfrog 5y ago

I’d be wary of hoping for a popular revolt against Putin- typically when people in a country feel under attack they rally in support of whoever the leadership is. Look at George bush’s approval rating right after 9/11. When people are scared they look to whoever is in charge to protect them. This might be an exception to the extent that Russians feel that the wounds were self-inflicted. But they may also start calling for retaliation against the west, if they feel that their country is being attacked unfairly. It’s hard to say.

optimalonpaper 5y ago

No one thinks that a regular Ivan from some russian city (on his own) is responsible for the war and should suffer. And I see how you could (and probably should, at some level) feel sorry for russians fleeing the country. But this is the only way to tell them that they -- collective Ivans, Russian society as a whole -- should stand up and act: they should articulate their content, they should protest against putin's policy, and they should stop the war (an alternative would be to accept Ukraine to NATO and finish this war is a day, but that won't happen). While they're suffering economically, the suffering of Ukrainians is just on another level -- it's not about restrictions (e.g. no ikea or facebook or apple products) or money (inflation), it's about flattened cities and destroyed lives. I woke up as I heard bombs falling on my city, and I definitely haven't felt any sympathy for russians since then. If they feel they don't support their country's aggression towards Ukraine, they should go protest and stop it -- even at risk of being fined or imprisoned. Otherwise they should just embrace all sanctions and become North Korea imho.

bitcharmer 5y ago
Judging by the number of Russians taking the easy way out by just fleeing or complaining about the evil west closing their Ikea stores this nation at the moment has zero capacity to take responsibility for their own government. I'm afraid it has to get much worse before it gets better. They still don't understand that as much as the government is responsible for its people, the people are also responsible for their government. Putin didn't magically appear on the political scene with all the power he has now. Russians allowed Putin to happen; now they refuse to take responsibility.
- vlaaad 5y ago
  Why would I take responsibility for something I have zero influence over? He did just appear when Yeltsin said that he's leaving. He blatantly fakes elections: 146% support is a very telling result of one of these elections. It is a meme in Russia because when you can't do anything about it you can only laugh or cry. His 20 years on the throne are a constant stream of murders, poisoning and jailing of people who try to do something about it, and their friends, and their families. I'm just a normal person, I want to live a normal live with my wife and kids, I didn't choose any of that. Why do I have to risk going to jail for 15 years for mentioning that war is war, only because I was born on the wrong side of the border?

pelasaco 5y ago

The only people that can stop Putin are the russian People.

pintxo 5y ago

I was wondering before if this whole “special operation” is a 1961 thing? Remember der Berlin Wall? The local communists had no compelling story to offer to their population so especiallz the young and well educated voted with their feet and migrated westwards. Essentially leaving the German Democratic Republic with few options, the one they took was basically imprisonment of the remaining population, to prevent any further brain-drain. Is this whole shit we have witnessed over the last days Putins realization that he has nothing of value to offer to the population? And that he therefore cannot allow a culturally well connected big western style democracy at his side? With all the connections between Russia and Ukrain, this would be like a massive advertisement what Russians are missing out. Food for thought.

egao1980 5y ago

There are some people who would see this as an opportunity to abuse EU migration laws. Some people fear to lose their outsourcing jobs. But the numbers are low. Also West is definitely attacking Russians and not Russian government now. How on Earth cancelling Dostoevski, Chekvhov and Tchaikovski is going to stop the war and change Russian government policies? It resembles more to me some early XX century antisemitism that was rampant in Europe.

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verygreen9487 5y ago

I find it strange that so many people in these threads keep saying things like "go home and fight putin." Imagine if this had been the western response to the German physicists to whom we offered refuge before/during World War II. When the intellectual capital of your enemy is trying to come over to your side, turning them away out of spite isn't "being tough" or "holding people accountable" - it's just counterproductive.

diordiderot 5y ago
Solid take. We should offer visas with moving bonus for every stem master / phd
- cutemonster 5y ago
  And everyone who refuses to serve in Putin's army (then he gets fewer soldiers to attack with)

AnonHP 5y ago

The number of people who can flee and are able and/or willing to do it must be a tiny percentage, no? Among those, many may also be privileged in certain ways to actually do it. I wonder how those who are left behind (or stay behind) may react. This whole situation is very messy, and it’s difficult (for me) to see how this will shape up, when the conflict will end, and at what cost.

option 5y ago

I feel bad for the Russians who oppose putin. Anecdotal story: I am originally from Ukraine (now a US citizen) and currently host 2 Ukrainian refugees (relatives of mine). Yesterday we were walking in Santa Barbara, CA chatting in Russian (our native language). An angry American passed by listening to some Ukraine-Russian news on his phone (via speakers), recognized we speak Russian and angrily told us something along the lines of us having to go back to Russia …

jotm 5y ago
Just say "Slava Ukraine" heh, it seems to have become a rallying cry and a way to immediately see where most Russian speakers stand.
snek_case 5y ago
That sucks and I'm sorry you had to endure that. If it happens again, I would encourage you to just tell them "we are from Ukraine!", they might realize how stupid they are being and hopefully be a bit more careful next time they want to pass judgment. It's hard, but it is possible to change (some) people's mind, even with small interventions. Worth a try IMO. I wish you and your relatives the best. Long live Ukraine.
heneryville 5y ago
If you're aware of any other refugees Ukrainian or Russian, that need a place in the USA, please let me know. My understanding is that the US is not letting in refugees yet though.
- option 5y ago
  Your understanding is correct atm. USA offers «concern” and “support”, colors airport in Ukraine’s flag (SFO). But they still must have visa, insurance, and Covid test to enter. My family were even asked why they don’t have return tickets.

asimpletune 5y ago

I'm in Istanbul right now, and it's absolutely full of young Russians who've escaped. Random people who don't even know each other are hugging and crying all the time. They've also been treated very well by the Turks. One lady in a hostel was just totally flustered trying to figure out how to accommodate a Russian family with kids at the last minute. Just another eye-witness perspective.

cutemonster 5y ago
I wish the EU would welcome Russians who flee from Putin, in the same way. (If young men cannot leave, doesn't that mean more people that Putin can try to force to join his army)
- asimpletune 5y ago
  Yeah, I think if the goal is to wield soft pressure, then actually providing increased incentives to leave would advance that cause better. In any case, all the people here seem to be hipster-type, college educated intelligentsia from St. Petersburg and the like. Most I’ve talked to do something tech related.

blueyes 5y ago

I've been told by people inside that Russian citizens are trying desperately to leave the country for three main reasons: 1) They do not want to be conscripted to fight in Putin's war. 2) The Western sanctions are impacting Russia's economy at every level. Western companies are cutting them off from goods and services they rely on. Those who experienced life behind the Iron Curtain do not want to live behind it again. The iPhone curtain... 3) Russia is transitioning from an authoritarian state to a totalitarian state. In Moscow now, there are reports that FSB officers checking Russian travelers' phones in airports, to make sure they are not breaking the new censorship laws regarding information about the war.

axiosgunnar 5y ago
> The iPhone curtain If one could invest in slogans that will soon be in every history book, I would go all in on this one :-)
- awb 5y ago
  Domain names and social media handles maybe?

SXX 5y ago

I escaped from Russia on 25th of February. We bought tickets immediately after bombings started. Since I been in Rostov on Don our airport was closed so we have to take train and then flight to Istanbul. Some of my close friends already joined me here and some strongly consider taking same route as well. Though it's could be too late for them... I never supported Putin and did what I could to support our opposition leaders - both Navalny and Maxim Katz. I suported them financially, but yeah I did not participate in protests on streets and I certainly wond not do it if there was a risk to spend next 15 years in prison. PS: I have to look for a job that offer some kind of relocation since my current game development project only lasts till August and I'm not sure what to do next. I have 10+ years of experience with a bit of everything, but recently mostly frontend with TypeScript / Angular / Vue and backend with Java / Spring Boot or PHP / Laravel.

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alex239 5y ago

I am trying to find a way to escape now, and it gets harder every day. Land borders are still closed for a formal reason (COVID) and most likely will never open again. Unfortunately state television (the only television available for the most people) has been persistently making an enemy out of Ukraine since 2014. I don't know how it works, but propaganda can erase brains. The elderly and the poorly educated peolple really think that Ukraine is full of fascists and nazis who kill Russians. Orwell as is. it's horrible. On the other hand my friend who was protesting against the war was severely beaten by the police. The most disgusting thing is that Putin has apparently lost touch with reality and can really press the button. He has absolute power in Russia. He is a psychopath. Things are very bad.

SSLy 5y ago
My acquaintance escaped via bus to Estonia yesterday.

user-one1 5y ago

For any Russians reading this, Uruguay has an open border policy for immigrants who want to come to live here. There's already a small Russian community here and it will be easy to settle.

itwillnotbeasy 5y ago

Leaving not because of the crimes of the current regime but because of the sanctions affecting their quality of life. I had many online "friends" and distant relatives from Russia, and most of them is like "not my business", i don't care about politics, even when you show pictures with all horrors of war. The other part is like: I'm against this, but what can we do, it's too risky to protest, i can get arrested for 14 days. Whereas in Ukraine: unarmed people stopping tanks at risk of being killed. Mind-blowing how different our nations is. So don't worry much about people who can't leave country now, they are complicit in their inaction no less than the regime itself.

purecoolnesss 5y ago
There are apolitical people in every country, no? These people maximise their own benefit (aka capitalism) without caring about others (aka socialism?) There are also patriotic people like those Ukranians you mentioned that stayed and are fighting. Unfortunately many of the patriotic Russians support the war and they don't care as much about quality of life. What is happening is kind of like you living in a neighbourhood your whole life and then some thugs move in. Now all of a sudden you don't get mail because the post is scared of those thugs. You can fight the thugs or you can move to a neighbourhood where you can get your mail.
jpindar 5y ago
>can get arrested for 14 days How sure of that are you? Some of Russians who are leaving claim it's years, and whatever the letter of the law is, do you trust the Russian government that much?

throw-ru-938 5y ago

I am one of these Russians. Or should I say I was, because just moments ago Visa and Mastercard stopped all operations in Russia, and this essentially left us without any money except the (meagre) cash we could withdraw back in Russia. It really feels the trap is closing in around me right now.

smugglerFlynn 5y ago

We are actively trying to help Russian IT specialists to flee. We had over 300 resumes submitted by different people in our Telegram community in just two days. Most of these are senior people, many with experience in Yandex, local branches of Google and other international companies. I wrote about the situation here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30552091 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30552091 If anyone can help us get these people out — please step forward, all information is in the post. 30+ recruiters are already working with us, but that is not enough.

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chanpreetkaur 5y ago
Hiring