25 ms·

Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

491 points by throwaway5752 5y ago

throwaway5752 5y ago
https://valitsus.ee/en/news/estonian-government-requests-consultations-under-article-4-nato-treaty https://valitsus.ee/en/news/estonian-government-requests-con... People are minimizing this, based on the word "consultation". Don't be fooled, this is grave news, even though it is not Article 5. Article 5 invocation under these circumstances have substantial risk of full scale thermonuclear exchange.
- kkjjkgjjgg 5y ago
  Ukraine is not in the Nato, so I don't think Nato would consider launching nukes to defend it.
- garbagecoder 5y ago
  You’ve read too many Tom Clancy novels or something. People can declare whatever they want but unless there really is an attack on NATO, no one is talking about Article 5 and in such a circumstance it would be the attack itself and not the citation to a treaty that would be the issue. Also, a “full scale thermonuclear exchange” isn’t what it used to be. Stockpiles are orders of magnitude smaller than in the past, and many aren’t “thermonuclear” at all, just fission bombs with higher yield and better targeting.
  - throwaway5752 5y ago
    Reading any Tom Clancy novels is too many, so guilty as charged. I can't unread them. Since this is a hot war waged by Russia that is neighboring 4 NATO members, it seems as though you are a bit more a casual than would be appropriate. Your comments about nuclear war are not comforting.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
  - salawat 5y ago
    You...realize that all "thermonuclear" is is doping your bomb with tritium/a light fusion stage to generate more neutrons, for more complete fission of the fissile primary, right? All nuclear weapons are fission. Only newer ones are fusion boosted fission devices. I assure you, there is more than enough nuclear ordinance laying around to ensure WWIV is fought with sticks and stones. You do not want.
    - irrational 5y ago
      I’m fairly certain that some people truly do want to see the world burn.
      - salawat 5y ago
        Hard to do with cooked retinas, acute radiation poisoning, and the prospects of living beyond 20 cancer free are minimal. Also, the world's a big place, even though the internet has made it seem small. Yes, I understand it'd be nice to watch a good fee choice chunks burn... But I really don't think anyone is prepared for the hell on Earth of a full strategic nuclear exchange.
        andbberger 5y ago
        cooked retinas... try melted eyeballs... happened at hiroshima. nuclear weapons are truly barbaric
  - machiaweliczny 5y ago
    There exists bombs with > 4000x power of those dropped on Hiroshima. Also Russia modernised their intercontinental missiles and now they are able to carry multiple warheads that split before impact.
- fredophile 5y ago
  Ukraine isn't part of NATO so article 5 doesn't apply here.
  - throwaway5752 5y ago
    That is why I said, "even though it is not Article 5"
    - fredophile 5y ago
      Your next sentence started with, "Article 5 invocation under these circumstances" which gave me the impression you meant that article 5 could somehow be invoked here. Sorry for the misunderstanding.
- ckastner 5y ago
  > substantial risk of full scale thermonuclear exchange. This hasn't been true since the Cuban Missile Crisis. A full scale nuclear exchange ends with the annihilation of both sides. [1] To quote WarGames, "The only way to win is not to play". [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction
  - throwaway5752 5y ago
    Yes, in the presence of rational actors this would be avoided, but here we are anyway. A single nuclear strike would be met with retaliation and it would escalate to mutually assured destruction like clockwork. A lot of optimists thought Putin would not invade Ukraine because of the risk and that he was posturing. It would be similarly optimistic to presume rational actor decision processes. That may be a strategy he is employing, but we will never know until the brink. We are on the knife's edge of disaster here.
    - bremac 5y ago
      If Putin presses on toward Poland or threatens the Baltics, then we will be on a knife's edge. However, for now, Russia has only invaded Ukraine. It's a humanitarian disaster, but so far on the world stage it shows no sign it will escalate beyond new sanctions, export controls, and perhaps additional military support for NATO members in Eastern Europe.
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
    - ckastner 5y ago
      > We are on the knife's edge of disaster here. Not even remotely true. Demonstrably. The worst thing on the table right now are economic sanctions. Putin knew these were going to happen, and evidently thought the trouble was worth it. In fact, over the past few weeks, the major powers have confirmed over and over and over again that there would be no military response at all.
- awb 5y ago
  > substantial risk of full scale thermonuclear exchange. To what end? If Russia wants more territory they presumably care about the future. Why conquer all this territory just to blow up the world? Sounds like a waste of time. The scariest situation is one nuke. How do you respond? One nuke back or two? Then things escalate quickly. But I don’t see either country launching their full nuke arsenal unprovoked with their homeland not under any immediate danger. That’s just a death wish. And at that point there’s no one left to brag to about how great your country is.
  - camhart 5y ago
    > But I don’t see either country launching their full nuke arsenal unprovoked with their homeland not under any immediate danger. That’s just a death wish. And at that point there’s no one left to brag to about how great your country is. "I won" regardless of having someone to brag to, is still a motivating force I fear.
- vmception 5y ago
  Article 4 was done in 2014 too and it was hardly news while again in reaction to Ukraine which was experiencing its own civil war against a pro-Russian puppet leader that resulted in regime change aannnnnnd.... nothing else. The military operation by Russia is alarming. The Article 4 invocation is not.
raverbashing 5y ago
(If it's what I heard) Requesting more troops is not triggering article 4 And as per the Tweet itself, it's a consultation
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- throwaway5752 5y ago
  The consultation is what triggering article 4 means. Article 5 is collective defense. Article 4 The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.ht...
  - chinathrow 5y ago
    So Article 4 is talking - I am very sure lot's of talking within NATO happened in the last couple of months already - what does this change?
    - hguant 5y ago
      Talking before this; hey what's our plan if Russia invades? Ok, what about if Russia does a "small" invasion? Etc. "Informal" in that they're not producing anything that requires a vote or action from member parties - it's meeting of established joint committees, distribution of memoranda, back and forth on policy. Talking now: which of the plans we have discussed before are we going to enact? Formal meeting, in that a member state has declared it's intent to bring a topic to the table and that the body is obligated to discuss and determine a course of action - which is allowed to be "no action". Basically, before now everyone figured out what to do on paper, now the Treaty Organization has to make a decision about next steps.
anm89 5y ago
Am I correct in saying that Estonia is categorizing this as a threat to their security therefore requesting the rest of Nato to consider this an attack on a member?
- zokier 5y ago
  > I assure all the people of Estonia that there is no direct military threat to Estonia and that the situation in Estonia and at our external border is calm," Kallas [Estonias PM] emphasised.
  - pyuser583 5y ago
    I think the concern is a gigantic flood of refugees.
    - snemvalts 5y ago
      Estonian here, our society is unequivocally happy to take them. Most will probably go to Poland and surrounding countries of Ukraine first though.
- drsim 5y ago
  No
- vegai_ 5y ago
  No, that's article 5. This is just(?) a consultation request.
- hef19898 5y ago
  They consider their security to be threatened, and requested NATO to discuss it. Officially. Which is kind of a big deal. Article 5 can be invoked once, intentionally or by accident, e.g. a NATO plane is attacked over Ukraine. This whole thing is a mess. Despite history since the end of the cold war (which makes some of Russia's positions somewhat understandable, and the fact that NATO didn't do anything different in Iraq and Afghanistan), if Western-style democracies don't want to loose their freedoms they have to act. Appeasement usually doesn't work with expansionist powers.
Hokusai 5y ago
This reminds me of each time people criticises the European Union for "condemning" something. Big organizations do things step by step. First you talk, then you act. Even Russia prepared a prerecorded pantomime of a discussion before acting. This are the gears moving and is no small thing, it sends a message and prepares for the worse.
- CodeArtisan 5y ago
  Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 to "enforce peace". Same with Crimea in 2014. Then Luhansk and Donetsk a few days ago. Now the rest of Ukraine. Discussion with Putin is futile. When Russia started sending troops next to the Ukraine borders, NATO and especially USA should have responded by sending two thousands soldiers to Kiev. It's too late now.
  - sofixa 5y ago
    > When Russia started sending troops next to the Ukraine borders, NATO and especially USA should have responded by sending two thousands soldiers to Kiev. It's too late now. That would have escalated the situation further and would have helped Putin's narrative, like the Russian mobilisation in WWI which only pushed things over the edge.
    - catlikesshrimp 5y ago
      What would have been the difference to what Ukranians have now? More material support. I understand for politicians in other countries that would have been very expensive
  - 2143 5y ago
    > NATO and especially USA should have responded by sending two thousands soldiers to Kiev And Russia would've been scared and retreated. Sarcasm aside, all that would've done is accelerate the whole invasion procedure. And then the 2000 troops would be killed by Russia. Then America/NATO will retaliate. That'll be the endgame.
kragen 5y ago
Non-error-message link: https://birdsite.xanny.family/EstonianGovt/status/1496728085890273284 https://birdsite.xanny.family/EstonianGovt/status/1496728085... Text, 57 minutes ago: "#Estonia unequivocally condemns #Russia's military attack on #Ukraine and we have decided to launch #NATO consultations under Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty with Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and other Allies." Crepuscular photo of some buildings and link to https://valitsus.ee/en/news/estonian-government-requests-consultations-under-article-4-nato-treaty https://valitsus.ee/en/news/estonian-government-requests-con.... This could be the key escalation that turns the Russian invasion of Ukraine into World War III.
- bremac 5y ago
  That's rather hyperbolic. Article 4 has been invoked six times since 2003 (including in response to the Crimean invasion.) None of those cases triggered World War III.
  - throwaway5752 5y ago
    This is orders of magnitude different than those prior invocations.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
  - baby 5y ago
    World wars start from something small. Not saying this is it, but there are all the reasons to be concerned about today’s events.
    - darebak 5y ago
      I don't think that any of the world wars started out of small things, can you clarify?
      - deleted 5y ago
chinathrow 5y ago
It makes me sad, angry and confused that Putin is showing force. What an absolute madman.
- Giorgi 5y ago
  "showing force" is such a light way to describe it, this is full scale invasion into Europe, with the target to annihilate whole country while impotent civilized west watches it unfold in the fears that they may be next.
  - khazhoux 5y ago
    It’s not so much fear they may be next. It’s clearly a hesitance to engagage in a full-scale global war.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - azeirah 5y ago
    Dutch national news channel NOS had a historian and journalist called Hubert Smeets on. I'm Dutch, and will paraphrase what he said: Interviewer: "What can the west do, what can the NATO do? It's said that military action is not going to happen, why?" Smeets: "Very little. The consequences would be very large. This night, in his speech, Putin insinuated how Russia is a global nuclear superpower, and he said that the unthinkable could become thinkable. So that's off the table. All we can do is take economic and political measures; sanctioning, even if we don't know what the effect of these sanctions will be. And turning him into a political pariah, even China said Putin should not pull through on this evasion." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hm7JiO4tY_Y&t=1036s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hm7JiO4tY_Y&t=1036s
    - Giorgi 5y ago
      That's how bullying works.
  - chinathrow 5y ago
agilob 5y ago
ok, so ELI15, what is Article 4 and Article 5?
- hawski 5y ago
  https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.ht... Article 4 The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened. Article 5 The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area. Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security .
- Giorgi 5y ago
  Basically: Article 4: Let's meet, I think I might be next. Article 5: I am being attacked, help?
- usrme 5y ago
  From the official text[1]: - Article 4: The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened. - Article 5: The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them [...] will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith [...] such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area. --- [1]: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.ht...
newbie789 5y ago
winrid 5y ago
I'm curious, do folks here think Putin would have still invaded if Ukraine didn't consider joining NATO? While yes, Putin very much wants his old USSR back, it seems he's doing this in response to potentially having more NATO missiles on his borders. He's basically been saying "fuck around and find out" since 2008 when we said Ukraine would have the option of joining NATO.
- glogla 5y ago
  "Putin is only doing this because of NATO missiles" is a Russian propaganda line. It is disheartening to hear it repeated on HN.
  - winrid 5y ago
    Ah. I just heard it in my circle. It makes sense that it could be propaganda.
  - melony 5y ago
    Said the great software engineers who have never sat through a single geopolitics class.
  - teatree 5y ago
    I am not aware of Russian / European geopolitics so pardon my ignorance, but isn't NATO reaching Russian borders a threat? Hypothetically, wouldn't the US would have serious concerns if Mexico decides to join a Chinese alliance. (I am not justifying a war, just wondering what could have been done on both sides to prevent it)
    - usrme 5y ago
      An above comment (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30452129 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30452129) seems to rebuke this: "Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania are all NATO members. If Putin takes Ukraine, and redraws his borders, he's just adding 4 NATO members. Wouldn't make much sense."
    - alde 5y ago
wiz21c 5y ago
Why does Putin try to invade parts of Ukraine ? What's its interest ? Is it economical ? is it for interior politics ? is it to destabilize Europe ? does someone can conjecture a bit ?
- icelancer 5y ago
  Putin's opinion is that the eastern regions of Ukraine that have been controlled by Russian troops for years now and have separatists there vying for annexation by Russia belong to Russia, not Ukraine (after all, they once did). Ukraine doesn't agree. It's also widely theorized (basically fact) that Putin has fomented revolution and supports separatist movements to gin up trouble and incite problems in those areas to further make his case. It's a land grab, and possibly a precursor to something much more. But only time will tell.
- awb 5y ago
  It was originally part of the USSR. Putin has said many times he thinks breaking up the USSR was a huge mistake and wants to re-acquire those territories. But yeah why does anyone start a war? Power, control, money, distraction, madness, idealism, etc. Probably a little of everything.
  - vurpo 5y ago
    Putin said in his recent speech that he thinks Lenin made a mistake in breaking up the Russian Empire into independent nations (that then joined the USSR). I think Putin is more after restoring the old Russian Empire than restoring the USSR.
- Synaesthesia 5y ago
  He's trying to protect the russian speaking communities in Luhansk and Donetsk. There would be no point to him occupying mkre than that.
  - hnbad 5y ago
    The problem with this analysis is that it's not 24 hours ago any more and Russia has started shelling Kyiv, which only makes sense if Russia is planning to take control of the entire country. Also let's drop the propaganda line of "protection". Luhansk and Donetsk may have declared independence but we generally don't tend to recognize such claims unless they are affirmed by the host nation. It's also an open secret that the separatists include a significant presence of Russian soldiers posing as Ukrainian "volunteers". Would you be okay with France attacking Spain to "protect" Catalonia? Ireland invading the UK to "protect" Scotland? A shared language and culture does not grant the right to annexation either, or are you arguing Germany and Austria should reunite and annex parts of Switzerland?
jl6 5y ago
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus Russia’s exports are >50% oil and gas products. The biggest retaliation the West can make right now is a commitment to a rapid exit at unprecedented speed from the oil economy, in favor of renewables.
- pyuser583 5y ago
  Realistically we’d need to do it faster than switching to renewables allowed.
- nomercy400 5y ago
  Like Russia cares. They have a growing, energy-hungering neighbor (China) buying their gas in the east, and a Europe committed to reduce their gas and oil usage in the next 10 years in the west.
  - tobylane 5y ago
    Russia cares in the short and medium term, while their gas setup is nearer to and pointed towards Europe.
    - mellavora 5y ago
      And in the short and medium turn, Europe cannot get to renewables. Re-doing an continent's energy grid takes time. Also, remember that many water heaters and house heating systems run on gas. Switching these to electric will also take time.
      - MattGaiser 5y ago
        One immediate action would be to cancel closing the nuclear plants.
      - ingenieros 5y ago
        Exactly, not to mention that Europe only has about 6 weeks worth of gas reserves according to German analysts. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/23/europe-winter-gas-reserves-russian-imports-german-analysis-ukraine https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/23/europe-winter-...
khazhoux 5y ago
Can anyone recommend any books to understand this conflict?
- throwaway21079a 5y ago
  https://youtu.be/JrMiSQAGOS4 https://youtu.be/JrMiSQAGOS4
- Synaesthesia 5y ago
  Frontline Ukraine by Richard Sakwa.
  - xdennis 5y ago
    That's if you want the Russian side.
travisgriggs 5y ago
Sometimes, compromise and diplomacy are a wonderful thing. But sometimes, there is no real compromise and the can just gets kicked down the road with what feels like compromise but really is just festering. I’ve seen many a historian posit that the 3/5 compromise was a compromise that ultimately germinated the civil war. They kicked the can down the road til its very rotten contents spilled over. Part of me wonders if we’re not approaching that moment with Russia on the world stage. This sense of aggravation has been going on since Stalin, and while the 90s were a nice respite, it honestly just begins to feel like there is no win win compromise between Russia and the western world. Maybe this is just the heat of the moment talking, and this’ll just be another uncomfortable “border skirmish” in a year from now. Anxiously frustrated and angry. Some of my favorite programmer friends are ex pat Russians. They have great culture, art, science.
- woodpanel 5y ago
  Russia is the last colonial empire and as such under constant threat of disintegration by the spread of outside political ideologies like ethno-nationalism, liberal democracy or communism (whose introduction by Germany did a pretty "big number" on Russia until Communist Russia eventually faced the same geostrategic power struggle the Tsarist Empire faced). So when speaking of "aggrevation" always factor in the perspective of the "Empire". PS: The concept of buffer countries as a peace keeper has been helpful in the past (e.g. Belgium kinda, Austria). I guess Ukraine's role will have to be that of such a buffer.
  - travisgriggs 5y ago
    Is a buffer state a lasting peace though? In any mechanical system, if your design is “lets give one part of the system all the stress” but said component is not proportionately strengthened or incentivized, it fails eventually, bringing the rest of the system down with it.
    - woodpanel 5y ago
      Well it's a starting point at least (see Austria or Belgium). You would then have to build more peace-keeping infra on top of it (see EU). Which highlights why it was an error to de-buffer Ukraine (also the CIS states surrounding Russia serve more or less this role, although "vassal" would be more appropriate). Speaking of a mecanical system: In the hiearchy of sovereignity, apart from US, RU and CN all countries are somewhat buffers.
fbn79 5y ago
Will be very disastrous for world economy, but in this case the NATO countries MUST implement a strong Cuba like Embargo vs Russia and Belorussian. “We will stand on principle or we will not stand at all.” M.T.
Teracotage 5y ago
'NATO response: This latest escalation could see Article 4 invoked by NATO, which means alliance needs to mobilize and may increase its military presence in countries on Russia’s and Ukraine’s borders. We don’t dare guess where the risks lie here, but it heightens danger.' Saxo Bank
Borrible 5y ago
It will probably get even better. Just wait until something really ugly happens. Such as the 'accidental' shooting down of aircraft over Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory... https://flightaware.com/live/flight/PBD948 https://flightaware.com/live/flight/PBD948
- glandium 5y ago
  MH17 shoot down didn't trigger worse things than were already happening.
  - Borrible 5y ago
    Yes, but where did I say it would trigger worse things than NATO article 4? That is, NATO article 5. This is just in your head, not mine. For me, it's all about the sheer fun of the coming horror and dangers of foreseeable Russian hybrid warfare without any caution or limitations. That nobody has expected to ever return to Europe.
neuronic 5y ago
We stopped Nord Stream 2 in Germany, finally. The former GDR state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern was obviously hoping for much needed jobs and taxes, but we stopped it now. It was always wrong to accept this pipeline, it was purely political. Now I also hope the US will stop all oil imports from Russia as well if not already done so. We need to cut off Russia from every single international penny and influence. In Germany, we can substitute the gas pipeline with LNG terminals accepting gas from various countries, including the US. At least until we further increase energy independence. Only bureaucracy and politics are in the way. Get them out of the way.
- deepsun 5y ago
  Nord Stream 2 doesn't matter for Russia. There are several alternative options (e.g. Nord Stream 1). The main reason Russians built it is to spend government money on top officials development companies. If Europe closes NS2, it's even better, let's build it to New Zealand. The whole Nord Stream 2 thing is pathetic. Ex-German chancellor Shroeder is on its board of directors. And Germany kinda plays on Russian side here a little, doing nothing but supportive words. If they agree with Russia to split Poland again, I wouldn't be surprised.
  - Sosh101 5y ago
    > If they agree with Russia to split Poland again, I wouldn't be surprised. Let's keep things civil and in the realms of sanity, can we please.
sillysaurusx 5y ago
I'm trying to help people evacuate from Ukraine. If you know anyone who wants out, DM me: Twitter thread: https://twitter.com/theshawwn/status/1496761074258952193 https://twitter.com/theshawwn/status/1496761074258952193 Telegram: https://t.me/theshawwn https://t.me/theshawwn Urgent: If you know anyone near Kiev who can drive two elderly people plus one child to Romania, please contact me ASAP. (Note: Male drivers need to be under 18 or over 55, since they'll likely be stopped by law enforcement along the way.) I know this sounds straight out of a novel, but I'm just doing whatever I can to help people. (I guess it shouldn't feel surprising that a lot of people want to leave all of a sudden...) I can help cover travel expenses, though I'm not sure the best way to send money. If we pool our resources, our collective odds go way up. The current plan is to cross into Romania via Karpatia Sanatorium: https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Kiev,+Kyiv+city,+Ukraine/Karpatia+Sanatorium,+Vul.+Tsentral%CA%B9na,+87,+Shayan,+Zakarpattia+Oblast,+Ukraine,+90457/@49.2611353,22.4250688,6z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m14!4m13!1m5!1m1!1s0x40d4cf4ee15a4505:0x764931d2170146fe!2m2!1d30.5234!2d50.4501!1m5!1m1!1s0x473788337c9a0907:0x1392c7b177e87e5c!2m2!1d23.3293661!2d48.05847!3e0 https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Kiev,+Kyiv+city,+Ukraine/Kar... They might be willing to pick up one non-adult (<18yo or >55yo) along the way.
- dvt 5y ago
  I can put you in touch with my dad (who knows a lot of people in Eastern Romania) to potentially help. We live in California, but are originally from Romania. Feel free to get in touch (email at the bottom of https://dvt.name/resume/ https://dvt.name/resume/).
  - sillysaurusx 5y ago
    Emailed -- thank you so much!
- 3pt14159 5y ago
  (I'd prefer not to tweet this, since family members etc follow me there.) If anyone knows a Ukrainian[0] woman that wants to flee and needs shelter / airfare I don't really need my room in Toronto since I'm traveling for work. There is a kind, hardworking woman in the other room, but the condo unit is a two bedroom, two bathroom and my room comes with its own washroom. She can stay for as long as it takes to get refugee stuff figured out. Please respond here with contact details, sometimes I miss emails because of anti-spam. Or you can try me on Twitter via DM: @zachaysan [0] Nationality, not ethnicity; ie, ethnic Russian or Uzbek is fine.
usrme 5y ago
The previously up live conflict map[1] is also now down; it was up yesterday[2]. Does anybody know of a potential mirror? EDIT: Up again! --- [1]: https://liveuamap.com/ https://liveuamap.com/ [2]: https://web.archive.org/web/20220223210344/https://liveuamap.com/ https://web.archive.org/web/20220223210344/https://liveuamap...
christkv 5y ago
I've been thinking about what can the Russians do? Seize a part of Ukraine and force the Ukrainian government into a peace treaty that hands over the territories. What those territories are is hard to predict. Overthrow the government and put a puppet one in its place. This would require some sort of occupation to keep that puppet regime in power, and the Russian forces would be constantly harassed and attacked by guerrilla style tactics (as in Iraq but probably better trained and equipped). Unless Russia has additional hundreds of thousands of troops they can't effectively occupy a country as big as the Ukraine. That leaves limited objectives. They also have a limited timeframe before the ground thaws, limiting operational activities with heavy equipment to be along roads. The famous mud country side of eastern Europe is staring soon and will continue for some months making major tank manoeuvres more difficult. If you are in the Ukraine. - Ensure you have at least 1 week of food and water. - Make a bug out bag if you need to leave at a moments notice (including basic medical supplies). - Have an escape plan that DOES NOT include major roads to get out of the city. - Cash is king and anything else of value you can trade for supplies. - If you have a Dacha (or a friend has one) that might be a good place to wait it out if you have to get out of the city. Be safe
tut-urut-utut 5y ago
Let's hope that everyone will just accept facts as they are and not further escalate. What Estonia is doing here is just that, an escalation. Instead of implementing the Minsk agreement, Ukraine decided to pursue a military solution of “cleaning” Donetsk region. Now they have a military solution. Now it's time for diplomacy. Just accept the fact that the majority of Donetsk and Lugansk want to be an independent state and negotiate the borders in peace, instead of trying to further escalate. There was already a precedent in Kosovo, where one-sidedly proclaimed independence was accepted, and a sovereign country that tried to prevent it was crushed by NATO military until they had to accept “the new reality”. And now let someone tell me what is the difference between Ukraine-Donbas-Russia and Serbia-Kosovo-NATO situation? Except the facts that NATO now sides with the sovereign state instead with the separatists, and that Russia is an enemy of NATO.
- deepsun 5y ago
  You are just repeating Russian propaganda. Pretty much every sentence is false.
  - raspberry1337 5y ago
    > In 1996, the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) began attacking federal security forces. The conflict escalated until Kosovo was on the verge of all-out war by the end of 1998. In January 1999, NATO warned that it would intervene militarily against Yugoslavia if it did not agree to the introduction of an international peacekeeping force and the establishment of local government in Kosovo. Subsequent peace talks failed and from 24 March to 11 June 1999, NATO carried out an extensive bombing campaign against FR Yugoslavia including targets in Kosovo itself. The war ended with Milošević agreeing to allow peacekeepers into Kosovo and withdrawing all security forces so as to transfer governance to the United Nations. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Kosovo_declaration_of_independence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Kosovo_declaration_of_ind... What is false about what he said, and can you provide sources?
- axiomsEnd 5y ago
  Look at the map, they are attacking Lviv which is as far as something can be from Donbas. They are almost at the Polish border.
deepsun 5y ago
I've grew up near Russia, and I can describe you their mindset: all "agreements", "sanctions", "borders" etc don't matter. They are just distractions to prepare positions and advance their military. All that matters is force. There's a Russian proverb: "All territories are ours, it's just someone temporary occupied them". They also think in terms of territories (not people or economy) and victories. If they start losing a war, they start questioning their government. So Estonia is doubly right to be worried, as, even if they actually manage to invade Ukraine, I see no reason they are going to stop at Ukrainian border. So the most logical step for Estonia is to help Ukraine as much as possible.
- kkjjkgjjgg 5y ago
  Why would they want Estonia? Also, I suppose war simply has a cost, sanctions and so on can simply be factored into the calculation. It's not a Russian mindset, it is rational.
  - hobo_mark 5y ago
    There is a significant Russian minority in Estonia (as in other Baltics) who after de-russification remain "second class" citizens (without the right to vote for example).
    - jonov 5y ago
      Estonian here. That is Russian propaganda, Estonian citizens all have the right to vote. There is a minority of Russians here who do not want to learn the language and become citizens, hence they can't vote. They have the attitude that we (Estonians) are occupying their land... it's crazy. Younger generation of Russians who are born here are mostly not like that though *edit Even non-citizen Russians have the right to vote in local elections, just not in nation wide elections.
      - hobo_mark 5y ago
        You are right of course and I should have been more precise. Can't edit, have an upvote.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
gardaani 5y ago
I had a look at the size of the armies in Baltic countries. According to [1][2], they have no tanks or fighter aircrafts. That can't be right? If it is true, then no wonder they are worried. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_level_of_military_equipment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_level_of_... [2] https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing-europe.php https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing-europe.php
- Pawka 5y ago
  There are NATO fighters & tanks of other alliance members continuously deployed in these regions.
jdrc 5y ago
Would be interesting to hear from any russians in here, because i can't help to think that large majority of russians are complicit to what seems to be a dictator going mad as much as the dictators in his neighborhood (aliyev, khomeini, taliban etc)
- napmo 5y ago
  Or Bennett, Netanyahu, and other Israeli maniacs targeting Palestinian people. Illegal Israeli settlers are for sure complicit to these.
  - koliber 5y ago
    You're correct, but are distracting the conversation from the matter at hand.
- realcertify 5y ago
  You are right about large majority of Russians being complicit, and right when saying "what seems to be a dictator going mad". Because it's not a dictator going mad, in fact Putin has quite clear goals and is quite predictable. He repeatedly was warning the West about the balance of power being skewed in their favor and Russia's interests being neglected since 2007. I'm not going to get into much details, and I feel I will be downvoted no matter how I try to reason Putin's behavior, but there are clear reasons behind it. I think with right political moves Russia could achieve the same goals, however looks like Russian diplomacy is in much worse shape than the army, thus there's this conflict going into hot phase. Western media again as always are portraying Putin as a crazy dictator who just needs more blood, however I hope YCombinator folks being critical thinking and curious enough will dig a bit more into the history of this conflict and try to understand the motives of each side. As usual in this world there's no bad guys vs good guys, there's hundreds shades of grey that are actually interesting to research if you wish to. Similar problem is Taiwan by the way.
  - csmpltn 5y ago
    > "You are right about large majority of Russians being complicit" Honest question. How do you know a large majority of Russian citizens are being complicit in supporting these acts of war? This is such a broad, generalizing statement. It's not like they were asked to vote on it?
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
arminiusreturns 5y ago
Hawks squabble and squawk their beaks Cogn not of the horrors they speak From the poisoned tongues of minds infiltrated Come calls for blood sacrifice on war altars afar Shame on them and all their houses

491 points by throwaway5752 5y ago

https://valitsus.ee/en/news/estonian-government-requests-consultations-under-article-4-nato-treaty https://valitsus.ee/en/news/estonian-government-requests-con... People are minimizing this, based on the word "consultation". Don't be fooled, this is grave news, even though it is not Article 5. Article 5 invocation under these circumstances have substantial risk of full scale thermonuclear exchange.

kkjjkgjjgg 5y ago
Ukraine is not in the Nato, so I don't think Nato would consider launching nukes to defend it.
garbagecoder 5y ago
You’ve read too many Tom Clancy novels or something. People can declare whatever they want but unless there really is an attack on NATO, no one is talking about Article 5 and in such a circumstance it would be the attack itself and not the citation to a treaty that would be the issue. Also, a “full scale thermonuclear exchange” isn’t what it used to be. Stockpiles are orders of magnitude smaller than in the past, and many aren’t “thermonuclear” at all, just fission bombs with higher yield and better targeting.
- throwaway5752 5y ago
  Reading any Tom Clancy novels is too many, so guilty as charged. I can't unread them. Since this is a hot war waged by Russia that is neighboring 4 NATO members, it seems as though you are a bit more a casual than would be appropriate. Your comments about nuclear war are not comforting.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- salawat 5y ago
  You...realize that all "thermonuclear" is is doping your bomb with tritium/a light fusion stage to generate more neutrons, for more complete fission of the fissile primary, right? All nuclear weapons are fission. Only newer ones are fusion boosted fission devices. I assure you, there is more than enough nuclear ordinance laying around to ensure WWIV is fought with sticks and stones. You do not want.
  - irrational 5y ago
    I’m fairly certain that some people truly do want to see the world burn.
    - salawat 5y ago
      Hard to do with cooked retinas, acute radiation poisoning, and the prospects of living beyond 20 cancer free are minimal. Also, the world's a big place, even though the internet has made it seem small. Yes, I understand it'd be nice to watch a good fee choice chunks burn... But I really don't think anyone is prepared for the hell on Earth of a full strategic nuclear exchange.
      - andbberger 5y ago
        cooked retinas... try melted eyeballs... happened at hiroshima. nuclear weapons are truly barbaric
- machiaweliczny 5y ago
  There exists bombs with > 4000x power of those dropped on Hiroshima. Also Russia modernised their intercontinental missiles and now they are able to carry multiple warheads that split before impact.
fredophile 5y ago
Ukraine isn't part of NATO so article 5 doesn't apply here.
- throwaway5752 5y ago
  That is why I said, "even though it is not Article 5"
  - fredophile 5y ago
    Your next sentence started with, "Article 5 invocation under these circumstances" which gave me the impression you meant that article 5 could somehow be invoked here. Sorry for the misunderstanding.
ckastner 5y ago
> substantial risk of full scale thermonuclear exchange. This hasn't been true since the Cuban Missile Crisis. A full scale nuclear exchange ends with the annihilation of both sides. [1] To quote WarGames, "The only way to win is not to play". [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction
- throwaway5752 5y ago
  Yes, in the presence of rational actors this would be avoided, but here we are anyway. A single nuclear strike would be met with retaliation and it would escalate to mutually assured destruction like clockwork. A lot of optimists thought Putin would not invade Ukraine because of the risk and that he was posturing. It would be similarly optimistic to presume rational actor decision processes. That may be a strategy he is employing, but we will never know until the brink. We are on the knife's edge of disaster here.
  - bremac 5y ago
    If Putin presses on toward Poland or threatens the Baltics, then we will be on a knife's edge. However, for now, Russia has only invaded Ukraine. It's a humanitarian disaster, but so far on the world stage it shows no sign it will escalate beyond new sanctions, export controls, and perhaps additional military support for NATO members in Eastern Europe.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
  - ckastner 5y ago
    > We are on the knife's edge of disaster here. Not even remotely true. Demonstrably. The worst thing on the table right now are economic sanctions. Putin knew these were going to happen, and evidently thought the trouble was worth it. In fact, over the past few weeks, the major powers have confirmed over and over and over again that there would be no military response at all.
awb 5y ago
> substantial risk of full scale thermonuclear exchange. To what end? If Russia wants more territory they presumably care about the future. Why conquer all this territory just to blow up the world? Sounds like a waste of time. The scariest situation is one nuke. How do you respond? One nuke back or two? Then things escalate quickly. But I don’t see either country launching their full nuke arsenal unprovoked with their homeland not under any immediate danger. That’s just a death wish. And at that point there’s no one left to brag to about how great your country is.
- camhart 5y ago
  > But I don’t see either country launching their full nuke arsenal unprovoked with their homeland not under any immediate danger. That’s just a death wish. And at that point there’s no one left to brag to about how great your country is. "I won" regardless of having someone to brag to, is still a motivating force I fear.
vmception 5y ago
Article 4 was done in 2014 too and it was hardly news while again in reaction to Ukraine which was experiencing its own civil war against a pro-Russian puppet leader that resulted in regime change aannnnnnd.... nothing else. The military operation by Russia is alarming. The Article 4 invocation is not.

raverbashing 5y ago

(If it's what I heard) Requesting more troops is not triggering article 4 And as per the Tweet itself, it's a consultation

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
throwaway5752 5y ago
The consultation is what triggering article 4 means. Article 5 is collective defense. Article 4 The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.ht...
- chinathrow 5y ago
  So Article 4 is talking - I am very sure lot's of talking within NATO happened in the last couple of months already - what does this change?
  - hguant 5y ago
    Talking before this; hey what's our plan if Russia invades? Ok, what about if Russia does a "small" invasion? Etc. "Informal" in that they're not producing anything that requires a vote or action from member parties - it's meeting of established joint committees, distribution of memoranda, back and forth on policy. Talking now: which of the plans we have discussed before are we going to enact? Formal meeting, in that a member state has declared it's intent to bring a topic to the table and that the body is obligated to discuss and determine a course of action - which is allowed to be "no action". Basically, before now everyone figured out what to do on paper, now the Treaty Organization has to make a decision about next steps.

anm89 5y ago

Am I correct in saying that Estonia is categorizing this as a threat to their security therefore requesting the rest of Nato to consider this an attack on a member?

zokier 5y ago
> I assure all the people of Estonia that there is no direct military threat to Estonia and that the situation in Estonia and at our external border is calm," Kallas [Estonias PM] emphasised.
- pyuser583 5y ago
  I think the concern is a gigantic flood of refugees.
  - snemvalts 5y ago
    Estonian here, our society is unequivocally happy to take them. Most will probably go to Poland and surrounding countries of Ukraine first though.
drsim 5y ago
No
vegai_ 5y ago
No, that's article 5. This is just(?) a consultation request.
hef19898 5y ago
They consider their security to be threatened, and requested NATO to discuss it. Officially. Which is kind of a big deal. Article 5 can be invoked once, intentionally or by accident, e.g. a NATO plane is attacked over Ukraine. This whole thing is a mess. Despite history since the end of the cold war (which makes some of Russia's positions somewhat understandable, and the fact that NATO didn't do anything different in Iraq and Afghanistan), if Western-style democracies don't want to loose their freedoms they have to act. Appeasement usually doesn't work with expansionist powers.

Hokusai 5y ago

This reminds me of each time people criticises the European Union for "condemning" something. Big organizations do things step by step. First you talk, then you act. Even Russia prepared a prerecorded pantomime of a discussion before acting. This are the gears moving and is no small thing, it sends a message and prepares for the worse.

CodeArtisan 5y ago
Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 to "enforce peace". Same with Crimea in 2014. Then Luhansk and Donetsk a few days ago. Now the rest of Ukraine. Discussion with Putin is futile. When Russia started sending troops next to the Ukraine borders, NATO and especially USA should have responded by sending two thousands soldiers to Kiev. It's too late now.
- sofixa 5y ago
  > When Russia started sending troops next to the Ukraine borders, NATO and especially USA should have responded by sending two thousands soldiers to Kiev. It's too late now. That would have escalated the situation further and would have helped Putin's narrative, like the Russian mobilisation in WWI which only pushed things over the edge.
  - catlikesshrimp 5y ago
    What would have been the difference to what Ukranians have now? More material support. I understand for politicians in other countries that would have been very expensive
- 2143 5y ago
  > NATO and especially USA should have responded by sending two thousands soldiers to Kiev And Russia would've been scared and retreated. Sarcasm aside, all that would've done is accelerate the whole invasion procedure. And then the 2000 troops would be killed by Russia. Then America/NATO will retaliate. That'll be the endgame.

kragen 5y ago

Non-error-message link: https://birdsite.xanny.family/EstonianGovt/status/1496728085890273284 https://birdsite.xanny.family/EstonianGovt/status/1496728085... Text, 57 minutes ago: "#Estonia unequivocally condemns #Russia's military attack on #Ukraine and we have decided to launch #NATO consultations under Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty with Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and other Allies." Crepuscular photo of some buildings and link to https://valitsus.ee/en/news/estonian-government-requests-consultations-under-article-4-nato-treaty https://valitsus.ee/en/news/estonian-government-requests-con.... This could be the key escalation that turns the Russian invasion of Ukraine into World War III.

bremac 5y ago
That's rather hyperbolic. Article 4 has been invoked six times since 2003 (including in response to the Crimean invasion.) None of those cases triggered World War III.
- throwaway5752 5y ago
  This is orders of magnitude different than those prior invocations.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- baby 5y ago
  World wars start from something small. Not saying this is it, but there are all the reasons to be concerned about today’s events.
  - darebak 5y ago
    I don't think that any of the world wars started out of small things, can you clarify?
    - deleted 5y ago

chinathrow 5y ago

It makes me sad, angry and confused that Putin is showing force. What an absolute madman.

Giorgi 5y ago
"showing force" is such a light way to describe it, this is full scale invasion into Europe, with the target to annihilate whole country while impotent civilized west watches it unfold in the fears that they may be next.
- khazhoux 5y ago
  It’s not so much fear they may be next. It’s clearly a hesitance to engagage in a full-scale global war.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- azeirah 5y ago
  Dutch national news channel NOS had a historian and journalist called Hubert Smeets on. I'm Dutch, and will paraphrase what he said: Interviewer: "What can the west do, what can the NATO do? It's said that military action is not going to happen, why?" Smeets: "Very little. The consequences would be very large. This night, in his speech, Putin insinuated how Russia is a global nuclear superpower, and he said that the unthinkable could become thinkable. So that's off the table. All we can do is take economic and political measures; sanctioning, even if we don't know what the effect of these sanctions will be. And turning him into a political pariah, even China said Putin should not pull through on this evasion." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hm7JiO4tY_Y&t=1036s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hm7JiO4tY_Y&t=1036s
  - Giorgi 5y ago
    That's how bullying works.
- chinathrow 5y ago

agilob 5y ago

ok, so ELI15, what is Article 4 and Article 5?

hawski 5y ago
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.ht... Article 4 The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened. Article 5 The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area. Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security .
Giorgi 5y ago
Basically: Article 4: Let's meet, I think I might be next. Article 5: I am being attacked, help?
usrme 5y ago
From the official text[1]: - Article 4: The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened. - Article 5: The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them [...] will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith [...] such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area. --- [1]: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.ht...

newbie789 5y ago

winrid 5y ago

I'm curious, do folks here think Putin would have still invaded if Ukraine didn't consider joining NATO? While yes, Putin very much wants his old USSR back, it seems he's doing this in response to potentially having more NATO missiles on his borders. He's basically been saying "fuck around and find out" since 2008 when we said Ukraine would have the option of joining NATO.

glogla 5y ago
"Putin is only doing this because of NATO missiles" is a Russian propaganda line. It is disheartening to hear it repeated on HN.
- winrid 5y ago
  Ah. I just heard it in my circle. It makes sense that it could be propaganda.
- melony 5y ago
  Said the great software engineers who have never sat through a single geopolitics class.
- teatree 5y ago
  I am not aware of Russian / European geopolitics so pardon my ignorance, but isn't NATO reaching Russian borders a threat? Hypothetically, wouldn't the US would have serious concerns if Mexico decides to join a Chinese alliance. (I am not justifying a war, just wondering what could have been done on both sides to prevent it)
  - usrme 5y ago
    An above comment (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30452129 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30452129) seems to rebuke this: "Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania are all NATO members. If Putin takes Ukraine, and redraws his borders, he's just adding 4 NATO members. Wouldn't make much sense."
  - alde 5y ago

wiz21c 5y ago

Why does Putin try to invade parts of Ukraine ? What's its interest ? Is it economical ? is it for interior politics ? is it to destabilize Europe ? does someone can conjecture a bit ?

icelancer 5y ago
Putin's opinion is that the eastern regions of Ukraine that have been controlled by Russian troops for years now and have separatists there vying for annexation by Russia belong to Russia, not Ukraine (after all, they once did). Ukraine doesn't agree. It's also widely theorized (basically fact) that Putin has fomented revolution and supports separatist movements to gin up trouble and incite problems in those areas to further make his case. It's a land grab, and possibly a precursor to something much more. But only time will tell.
awb 5y ago
It was originally part of the USSR. Putin has said many times he thinks breaking up the USSR was a huge mistake and wants to re-acquire those territories. But yeah why does anyone start a war? Power, control, money, distraction, madness, idealism, etc. Probably a little of everything.
- vurpo 5y ago
  Putin said in his recent speech that he thinks Lenin made a mistake in breaking up the Russian Empire into independent nations (that then joined the USSR). I think Putin is more after restoring the old Russian Empire than restoring the USSR.
Synaesthesia 5y ago
He's trying to protect the russian speaking communities in Luhansk and Donetsk. There would be no point to him occupying mkre than that.
- hnbad 5y ago
  The problem with this analysis is that it's not 24 hours ago any more and Russia has started shelling Kyiv, which only makes sense if Russia is planning to take control of the entire country. Also let's drop the propaganda line of "protection". Luhansk and Donetsk may have declared independence but we generally don't tend to recognize such claims unless they are affirmed by the host nation. It's also an open secret that the separatists include a significant presence of Russian soldiers posing as Ukrainian "volunteers". Would you be okay with France attacking Spain to "protect" Catalonia? Ireland invading the UK to "protect" Scotland? A shared language and culture does not grant the right to annexation either, or are you arguing Germany and Austria should reunite and annex parts of Switzerland?

jl6 5y ago

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus Russia’s exports are >50% oil and gas products. The biggest retaliation the West can make right now is a commitment to a rapid exit at unprecedented speed from the oil economy, in favor of renewables.

pyuser583 5y ago
Realistically we’d need to do it faster than switching to renewables allowed.
nomercy400 5y ago
Like Russia cares. They have a growing, energy-hungering neighbor (China) buying their gas in the east, and a Europe committed to reduce their gas and oil usage in the next 10 years in the west.
- tobylane 5y ago
  Russia cares in the short and medium term, while their gas setup is nearer to and pointed towards Europe.
  - mellavora 5y ago
    And in the short and medium turn, Europe cannot get to renewables. Re-doing an continent's energy grid takes time. Also, remember that many water heaters and house heating systems run on gas. Switching these to electric will also take time.
    - MattGaiser 5y ago
      One immediate action would be to cancel closing the nuclear plants.
    - ingenieros 5y ago
      Exactly, not to mention that Europe only has about 6 weeks worth of gas reserves according to German analysts. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/23/europe-winter-gas-reserves-russian-imports-german-analysis-ukraine https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/23/europe-winter-...

khazhoux 5y ago

Can anyone recommend any books to understand this conflict?

throwaway21079a 5y ago
https://youtu.be/JrMiSQAGOS4 https://youtu.be/JrMiSQAGOS4
Synaesthesia 5y ago
Frontline Ukraine by Richard Sakwa.
- xdennis 5y ago
  That's if you want the Russian side.

travisgriggs 5y ago

Sometimes, compromise and diplomacy are a wonderful thing. But sometimes, there is no real compromise and the can just gets kicked down the road with what feels like compromise but really is just festering. I’ve seen many a historian posit that the 3/5 compromise was a compromise that ultimately germinated the civil war. They kicked the can down the road til its very rotten contents spilled over. Part of me wonders if we’re not approaching that moment with Russia on the world stage. This sense of aggravation has been going on since Stalin, and while the 90s were a nice respite, it honestly just begins to feel like there is no win win compromise between Russia and the western world. Maybe this is just the heat of the moment talking, and this’ll just be another uncomfortable “border skirmish” in a year from now. Anxiously frustrated and angry. Some of my favorite programmer friends are ex pat Russians. They have great culture, art, science.

woodpanel 5y ago
Russia is the last colonial empire and as such under constant threat of disintegration by the spread of outside political ideologies like ethno-nationalism, liberal democracy or communism (whose introduction by Germany did a pretty "big number" on Russia until Communist Russia eventually faced the same geostrategic power struggle the Tsarist Empire faced). So when speaking of "aggrevation" always factor in the perspective of the "Empire". PS: The concept of buffer countries as a peace keeper has been helpful in the past (e.g. Belgium kinda, Austria). I guess Ukraine's role will have to be that of such a buffer.
- travisgriggs 5y ago
  Is a buffer state a lasting peace though? In any mechanical system, if your design is “lets give one part of the system all the stress” but said component is not proportionately strengthened or incentivized, it fails eventually, bringing the rest of the system down with it.
  - woodpanel 5y ago
    Well it's a starting point at least (see Austria or Belgium). You would then have to build more peace-keeping infra on top of it (see EU). Which highlights why it was an error to de-buffer Ukraine (also the CIS states surrounding Russia serve more or less this role, although "vassal" would be more appropriate). Speaking of a mecanical system: In the hiearchy of sovereignity, apart from US, RU and CN all countries are somewhat buffers.

fbn79 5y ago

Will be very disastrous for world economy, but in this case the NATO countries MUST implement a strong Cuba like Embargo vs Russia and Belorussian. “We will stand on principle or we will not stand at all.” M.T.

Teracotage 5y ago

'NATO response: This latest escalation could see Article 4 invoked by NATO, which means alliance needs to mobilize and may increase its military presence in countries on Russia’s and Ukraine’s borders. We don’t dare guess where the risks lie here, but it heightens danger.' Saxo Bank

Borrible 5y ago

It will probably get even better. Just wait until something really ugly happens. Such as the 'accidental' shooting down of aircraft over Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory... https://flightaware.com/live/flight/PBD948 https://flightaware.com/live/flight/PBD948

glandium 5y ago
MH17 shoot down didn't trigger worse things than were already happening.
- Borrible 5y ago
  Yes, but where did I say it would trigger worse things than NATO article 4? That is, NATO article 5. This is just in your head, not mine. For me, it's all about the sheer fun of the coming horror and dangers of foreseeable Russian hybrid warfare without any caution or limitations. That nobody has expected to ever return to Europe.

neuronic 5y ago

We stopped Nord Stream 2 in Germany, finally. The former GDR state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern was obviously hoping for much needed jobs and taxes, but we stopped it now. It was always wrong to accept this pipeline, it was purely political. Now I also hope the US will stop all oil imports from Russia as well if not already done so. We need to cut off Russia from every single international penny and influence. In Germany, we can substitute the gas pipeline with LNG terminals accepting gas from various countries, including the US. At least until we further increase energy independence. Only bureaucracy and politics are in the way. Get them out of the way.

deepsun 5y ago
Nord Stream 2 doesn't matter for Russia. There are several alternative options (e.g. Nord Stream 1). The main reason Russians built it is to spend government money on top officials development companies. If Europe closes NS2, it's even better, let's build it to New Zealand. The whole Nord Stream 2 thing is pathetic. Ex-German chancellor Shroeder is on its board of directors. And Germany kinda plays on Russian side here a little, doing nothing but supportive words. If they agree with Russia to split Poland again, I wouldn't be surprised.
- Sosh101 5y ago
  > If they agree with Russia to split Poland again, I wouldn't be surprised. Let's keep things civil and in the realms of sanity, can we please.

sillysaurusx 5y ago

I'm trying to help people evacuate from Ukraine. If you know anyone who wants out, DM me: Twitter thread: https://twitter.com/theshawwn/status/1496761074258952193 https://twitter.com/theshawwn/status/1496761074258952193 Telegram: https://t.me/theshawwn https://t.me/theshawwn Urgent: If you know anyone near Kiev who can drive two elderly people plus one child to Romania, please contact me ASAP. (Note: Male drivers need to be under 18 or over 55, since they'll likely be stopped by law enforcement along the way.) I know this sounds straight out of a novel, but I'm just doing whatever I can to help people. (I guess it shouldn't feel surprising that a lot of people want to leave all of a sudden...) I can help cover travel expenses, though I'm not sure the best way to send money. If we pool our resources, our collective odds go way up. The current plan is to cross into Romania via Karpatia Sanatorium: https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Kiev,+Kyiv+city,+Ukraine/Karpatia+Sanatorium,+Vul.+Tsentral%CA%B9na,+87,+Shayan,+Zakarpattia+Oblast,+Ukraine,+90457/@49.2611353,22.4250688,6z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m14!4m13!1m5!1m1!1s0x40d4cf4ee15a4505:0x764931d2170146fe!2m2!1d30.5234!2d50.4501!1m5!1m1!1s0x473788337c9a0907:0x1392c7b177e87e5c!2m2!1d23.3293661!2d48.05847!3e0 https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Kiev,+Kyiv+city,+Ukraine/Kar... They might be willing to pick up one non-adult (<18yo or >55yo) along the way.

dvt 5y ago
I can put you in touch with my dad (who knows a lot of people in Eastern Romania) to potentially help. We live in California, but are originally from Romania. Feel free to get in touch (email at the bottom of https://dvt.name/resume/ https://dvt.name/resume/).
- sillysaurusx 5y ago
  Emailed -- thank you so much!
3pt14159 5y ago
(I'd prefer not to tweet this, since family members etc follow me there.) If anyone knows a Ukrainian[0] woman that wants to flee and needs shelter / airfare I don't really need my room in Toronto since I'm traveling for work. There is a kind, hardworking woman in the other room, but the condo unit is a two bedroom, two bathroom and my room comes with its own washroom. She can stay for as long as it takes to get refugee stuff figured out. Please respond here with contact details, sometimes I miss emails because of anti-spam. Or you can try me on Twitter via DM: @zachaysan [0] Nationality, not ethnicity; ie, ethnic Russian or Uzbek is fine.

usrme 5y ago

The previously up live conflict map[1] is also now down; it was up yesterday[2]. Does anybody know of a potential mirror? EDIT: Up again! --- [1]: https://liveuamap.com/ https://liveuamap.com/ [2]: https://web.archive.org/web/20220223210344/https://liveuamap.com/ https://web.archive.org/web/20220223210344/https://liveuamap...

christkv 5y ago

I've been thinking about what can the Russians do? Seize a part of Ukraine and force the Ukrainian government into a peace treaty that hands over the territories. What those territories are is hard to predict. Overthrow the government and put a puppet one in its place. This would require some sort of occupation to keep that puppet regime in power, and the Russian forces would be constantly harassed and attacked by guerrilla style tactics (as in Iraq but probably better trained and equipped). Unless Russia has additional hundreds of thousands of troops they can't effectively occupy a country as big as the Ukraine. That leaves limited objectives. They also have a limited timeframe before the ground thaws, limiting operational activities with heavy equipment to be along roads. The famous mud country side of eastern Europe is staring soon and will continue for some months making major tank manoeuvres more difficult. If you are in the Ukraine. - Ensure you have at least 1 week of food and water. - Make a bug out bag if you need to leave at a moments notice (including basic medical supplies). - Have an escape plan that DOES NOT include major roads to get out of the city. - Cash is king and anything else of value you can trade for supplies. - If you have a Dacha (or a friend has one) that might be a good place to wait it out if you have to get out of the city. Be safe

tut-urut-utut 5y ago

Let's hope that everyone will just accept facts as they are and not further escalate. What Estonia is doing here is just that, an escalation. Instead of implementing the Minsk agreement, Ukraine decided to pursue a military solution of “cleaning” Donetsk region. Now they have a military solution. Now it's time for diplomacy. Just accept the fact that the majority of Donetsk and Lugansk want to be an independent state and negotiate the borders in peace, instead of trying to further escalate. There was already a precedent in Kosovo, where one-sidedly proclaimed independence was accepted, and a sovereign country that tried to prevent it was crushed by NATO military until they had to accept “the new reality”. And now let someone tell me what is the difference between Ukraine-Donbas-Russia and Serbia-Kosovo-NATO situation? Except the facts that NATO now sides with the sovereign state instead with the separatists, and that Russia is an enemy of NATO.

deepsun 5y ago
You are just repeating Russian propaganda. Pretty much every sentence is false.
- raspberry1337 5y ago
  > In 1996, the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) began attacking federal security forces. The conflict escalated until Kosovo was on the verge of all-out war by the end of 1998. In January 1999, NATO warned that it would intervene militarily against Yugoslavia if it did not agree to the introduction of an international peacekeeping force and the establishment of local government in Kosovo. Subsequent peace talks failed and from 24 March to 11 June 1999, NATO carried out an extensive bombing campaign against FR Yugoslavia including targets in Kosovo itself. The war ended with Milošević agreeing to allow peacekeepers into Kosovo and withdrawing all security forces so as to transfer governance to the United Nations. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Kosovo_declaration_of_independence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Kosovo_declaration_of_ind... What is false about what he said, and can you provide sources?
axiomsEnd 5y ago
Look at the map, they are attacking Lviv which is as far as something can be from Donbas. They are almost at the Polish border.

deepsun 5y ago

I've grew up near Russia, and I can describe you their mindset: all "agreements", "sanctions", "borders" etc don't matter. They are just distractions to prepare positions and advance their military. All that matters is force. There's a Russian proverb: "All territories are ours, it's just someone temporary occupied them". They also think in terms of territories (not people or economy) and victories. If they start losing a war, they start questioning their government. So Estonia is doubly right to be worried, as, even if they actually manage to invade Ukraine, I see no reason they are going to stop at Ukrainian border. So the most logical step for Estonia is to help Ukraine as much as possible.

kkjjkgjjgg 5y ago
Why would they want Estonia? Also, I suppose war simply has a cost, sanctions and so on can simply be factored into the calculation. It's not a Russian mindset, it is rational.
- hobo_mark 5y ago
  There is a significant Russian minority in Estonia (as in other Baltics) who after de-russification remain "second class" citizens (without the right to vote for example).
  - jonov 5y ago
    Estonian here. That is Russian propaganda, Estonian citizens all have the right to vote. There is a minority of Russians here who do not want to learn the language and become citizens, hence they can't vote. They have the attitude that we (Estonians) are occupying their land... it's crazy. Younger generation of Russians who are born here are mostly not like that though *edit Even non-citizen Russians have the right to vote in local elections, just not in nation wide elections.
    - hobo_mark 5y ago
      You are right of course and I should have been more precise. Can't edit, have an upvote.

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gardaani 5y ago

I had a look at the size of the armies in Baltic countries. According to [1][2], they have no tanks or fighter aircrafts. That can't be right? If it is true, then no wonder they are worried. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_level_of_military_equipment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_level_of_... [2] https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing-europe.php https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing-europe.php

Pawka 5y ago
There are NATO fighters & tanks of other alliance members continuously deployed in these regions.

jdrc 5y ago

Would be interesting to hear from any russians in here, because i can't help to think that large majority of russians are complicit to what seems to be a dictator going mad as much as the dictators in his neighborhood (aliyev, khomeini, taliban etc)

napmo 5y ago
Or Bennett, Netanyahu, and other Israeli maniacs targeting Palestinian people. Illegal Israeli settlers are for sure complicit to these.
- koliber 5y ago
  You're correct, but are distracting the conversation from the matter at hand.
realcertify 5y ago
You are right about large majority of Russians being complicit, and right when saying "what seems to be a dictator going mad". Because it's not a dictator going mad, in fact Putin has quite clear goals and is quite predictable. He repeatedly was warning the West about the balance of power being skewed in their favor and Russia's interests being neglected since 2007. I'm not going to get into much details, and I feel I will be downvoted no matter how I try to reason Putin's behavior, but there are clear reasons behind it. I think with right political moves Russia could achieve the same goals, however looks like Russian diplomacy is in much worse shape than the army, thus there's this conflict going into hot phase. Western media again as always are portraying Putin as a crazy dictator who just needs more blood, however I hope YCombinator folks being critical thinking and curious enough will dig a bit more into the history of this conflict and try to understand the motives of each side. As usual in this world there's no bad guys vs good guys, there's hundreds shades of grey that are actually interesting to research if you wish to. Similar problem is Taiwan by the way.
- csmpltn 5y ago
  > "You are right about large majority of Russians being complicit" Honest question. How do you know a large majority of Russian citizens are being complicit in supporting these acts of war? This is such a broad, generalizing statement. It's not like they were asked to vote on it?

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arminiusreturns 5y ago

Hawks squabble and squawk their beaks Cogn not of the horrors they speak From the poisoned tongues of minds infiltrated Come calls for blood sacrifice on war altars afar Shame on them and all their houses