23 ms·

The end of the pandemic is near

198 points by mpweiher 5y ago

mulvya 5y ago
> On the other hand, I’m not willing to fly to India just now. Not as much out of fear of Covid but because, if I happened to have, say, a heart attack, I clearly would be unable to get a hospital bed or an oxygen mask. It's very region-dependent. Mumbai peaked in early April. 60%+ of O2 beds in Mumbai are vacant.
- thepangolino 5y ago
  The O2 shortage blows my mind. Doesn't India have any industry it could have have redirected O2 production form?!
  - kfifi 5y ago
    India did redirect industrial 02 production towards the hospitals. Part of the o2 shortage is zoning and logisticsz Delhi has zoning laws that ban manufacturing 02 within the city limits so all 02 has to be transported in.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - canadianfella 5y ago
      How hard is it to transport Oxygen for a few miles?
  - michaelt 5y ago
    > Because of the sudden surge in demand for medical oxygen, currently most of the industrial oxygen in India is undergoing an additional purification step, and then being diverted for medical use. A major challenge is getting this oxygen from factories in eastern and southern states to the northern and western states which are most struggling with supply. It takes hours to fill a tanker with the highly flammable liquid oxygen, and once on the road, these vehicles must follow a strict speed limit of no more than 25 mph as well as not travelling at night, to avoid road accidents. https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/why-indian-hospitals-are-running-out-medical-oxygen-and-how-fix-it https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/why-indian-hospitals-are-r... (Readers who paid attention in school may recall oxygen isn't actually flammable - but it does considerably increase fire risks)
    - nie100sowny 5y ago
      It's strange that oxygen cannot be transported at night. In Europe all the critical and big volume transports goes often at night (wind turbines parts, ship components etc.)
      - ianai 5y ago
        You don’t lose an entire city block if a wind turbine truck flips and spills it’s cargo in a bad crash.
      - colechristensen 5y ago
        It would depend on infrastructure quality and traffic law adherence. Lots of places around the world have really terrible roads and nonexistent or nearly entirely unenforced road laws. Places like that you might want to be careful to not drive an enormous tank of flaming death around when you’re not so sure you can see each of 500 pot holes, or an oncoming driver. Basic infrastructure things are easily taken for granted.
      - chrisandchris 5y ago
        You never have been to India or have never seen a video of a street in India. There are no streets as we in the western know. There is a road and traffic just everywhere and nobody cares about traffic rules. It‘s a dangerous place to live. [Maybe a bit exxagarated]. Otherwise you would know that this _may easily_ result in an accident and no-one wants to have a truck full of O2 to blow up in the night in the middle of nowhere. At least during the day „you see where you go“.
    - falcolas 5y ago
      Oxygen might not be flammable, but it is caustic. Plus, does the distinction of what is flammable really matter when spilled LOX is 'allowing' everything around it to combust at the slightest spark?
  - jmuguerza 5y ago
    They redirected ISRO's O2 production output to hospitals [1]. [1] https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/geo-imaging-satellite-gisat1-launch-further-delayed-704095 https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/geo-imaging-satellite...
soonnow 5y ago
I saw the news this week and the first stories were not about Covid. That is the first time I can remember, in a while. The pandemic is clearly coming to an end. Herd immunity or not, the systemic risk is going away in the US and other rich countries, leaving only the personal risk. If anything I wish the communication between the difference in systemic risk and individual risk had been better. People on Facebook have been talking about the 98% survivability for a long time. That sure sounds like a high number even though, a lottery with a 2% chance of winning sounds amazingly plausible. But the real risk has always been systemic. An exponential growth that overwhelms the healthcare system and leads to people dying, even those unaffected by Covid itself. Because they "chose" a day with an overwhelmed health care system, they may die when they have a heart attack or a traffic accident. With vaccination rates north of 60%, the systemic risk is gonna become smaller and smaller. As the article says, vaccinated people and people who have had it before will act as control rods for the reaction. Since Covid will not go away, the number of vaccinated will grow with vaccination efforts and the number who had it before will grow by itself. I strongly believe that most people on this planet are gonna be exposed to the spike protein, either through vaccination or Covid itself, herd immunity or no her immunity. I fell that makes an incredibly convincing case for vaccination, but I have not been able to convince any anti-vaxer with it, so there's that.
- jonathanstrange 5y ago
  I don't disagree with you, just want to mention that people on Facebook are very dumb if they think 98% survivability is a good rate, given how easily this disease is transmitted without stringent measures. Luckily, the estimated fatality rate with modern medical care is much lower.
  - wiz21c 5y ago
    for an individual, it's "good" if you accept to have one chance over 50 to die of it. for a population, it's a lot of deaths. all depends if you think "you first" or "the other first"
    - soonnow 5y ago
mschuster91 5y ago
The core question that the author doesn't touch because he only deals with the absolute number of cases is: what happens with long covid? With prior epidemics, people were dead and that's it or they were alive and healthy soon-ish, the rate of survivors with horrible, lasting after effects always was low (such as with polio which left only ~1200 people in 1959 with an iron lung). Coronavirus in contrast is much, much more evil - even in young, healthy people such as athletes, there are numerous reports of a wide variety of symptoms: permanent lung damage due to scarring first and foremost, but also neural symptoms (ME/CFS), GI issues or mental health issues. Unfortunately, this isn't talked about much and - unlike an iron lung or scars - most symptoms can't be seen from just looking at a corona survivor, which leads to a widespread ignorance in just how immensely dangerous this virus is.
- glangdale 5y ago
  One of the bits of good news recently has been that vaccination apparently helps with long COVID too. But I agree with the idea of not being blasé about COVID due to the long-term morbidity effects. It will be interesting to see what sort of hangover Sweden has from their frankly idiotic policies.
  - ynfnehf 5y ago
    Sweden have had fewer infections than a lot of other regions. If longcovid is a problem, I would be more worried about places like New York and London.
    - _Microft 5y ago
      Metropolitan areas might not be the best comparison for a territorial state like Sweden. The actual effect of policies might be more visible when viewed next to comparable countries, like their nordic neighbours. Here are the case numbers per inhabitant from the Johns Hopkins university dataset plotted against time (moving average with a window of seven days): https://mackuba.eu/corona/#compare.daily?pop=1&c=no,fi,dk,se&trend=7 https://mackuba.eu/corona/#compare.daily?pop=1&c=no,fi,dk,se...
glangdale 5y ago
Well, maybe. It's amusing to picture this article being written, in some variant, after each of those peaks with a different choice of x- and y-axis cutoffs. Comprehensive vaccination seems to be working, and I'm not one of those "amazing new variant" doomsayers who imagines that every variant is going to overcome vaccine resistance. The idea that we have a large pool of unvaccinated people coupled with a lot of cases seems like a neat way to exert selection pressure towards the creation of strains that are at least quite virulent, if not necessarily dangerous-to-vaccinated-people. But I'd say the air of celebration in these articles is premature, and the cliche that "oh, it will become endemic and we'll learn to live with it" tends to overlook that "endemic" covers a huge range of outcomes, including some unacceptably bad ones.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- ianai 5y ago
  The graphics there seem less than scientific somehow. Like messing with the y-axis marks. They also seem to only cover from April in at least one graph, but show dates from February 2020. Kinda seems suspect. I think the Spanish Flu and others ended by tapering off. Ie over a period of several months? I imagine society needs to learn it can trust the threat has passed by seeing an extended period of time without large surges.
0-_-0 5y ago
The flu "epidemic" never ended. The common cold "epidemic" never ended. If COVID mutates fast enough it will stay with us forever, with a potentially much higher mortality than the flu. The argument of the article boils down to "that's OK, you'll get used to it"
- bb123 5y ago
  I mean, what is the alternative? We spend the rest of our lives hiding in our houses? He is right - at some point we will collectively decide COVID is a risk worth running to actually live life. And it might be that it does make day-to-day activities more risky than before, but again, what is the alternative?
  - hef19898 5y ago
    Vaccination. Once herd immunity is reached, and maybe maintained by regular booster shots, the risk of returning to normal life is negligable. And that's why this whole conspiracy nonsense around vaccines is so dangerous.
    - 0-_-0 5y ago
      The flu vaccine didn't stop the flu, it mutates faster than vaccines can keep up. You can make the argument [0] that vaccinating during a pandemic (during which new variants arise faster) creates evolutionary pressures that favor variants resistant to vaccines, increasing the chance that virus mutation can get ahead of vaccine development. (Which is not to say we should stop depoying vaccines of course) [0]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PgIUDn__WU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PgIUDn__WU
      - hef19898 5y ago
        Oh, sure. That's why yearly flu shots are a mix against the most likely flu strains for the given flu season. For Covid, I am not aware of a particular mutation defeating the existing vaccines. Besides the Indian one, which seems to cope better with a population that is to large extent vaccinated. And even that variant is then only dangerous for those not vaccinated. Short version: Any vaccine is better then no vaccine.
xiphias2 5y ago
,,We will probably have bad seasons and good seasons, as we do with flu'' The author underestimates the efficiency of the mRNA vaccines. Manufacturing still didn't ramp up to the levels necessary to vaccinate the whole world, but I would be surprised if the yearly mixed shot of flu/COVID vaccine wouldn't significantly decrease the endemics as well in the next few years. As a personal example, my mother was not taking the flu shot, because she experienced serious side effects that were not worth for her in return for the low efficiency.
the-dude 5y ago
We just got started. SARS, Mexican Flu, MERS, SARS v2. Following each other up in increased velocity due to ever increasing inter-connectivity. The same seems to be happening in the bio-industry : nowadays there always seems to be some infectious disease present, be it affecting chickens, cows or pigs.
- samus 5y ago
  Especially industrial husbandry is an invitation for diseases to spread and maybe manage to jump to humans. In severe cases, mass culling is the only way to stop epidemics among farmed animals. Which affects the price of animal products. Unless our governments subsidize that away...
  - the-dude 5y ago
    Do you have any sources for diseases spreading from industrial husbandry which led to epidemic problems? This speculation is repeated over and over again, but is it really true or just speculation?
    - andrewtbham 5y ago
      I know mad cow disease came from farm raised cattle in the UK. People ate the beef and got mad cow disease. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bovine_spongiform_encephalopathy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bovine_spongiform_encephalopat...
      - the-dude 5y ago
        There are many cases of diseases jumping from animals too humans, I know of Mad Cow Disease. But it was not an epidemic problem IIRC.
    - pessimizer 5y ago
      Salmanella, E.Coli, Avian Flu, Swine Flu...
wheybags 5y ago
> our Great National Misery is ending Side note but, Americans take note: when you conflate "the world" with America like this, it really grinds everyone else's gears. This is an International misery.
- op00to 5y ago
  I’m an American and reading this was like sand grinding into my phone screen. :)
- enkid 5y ago
  I think he's probably talking in the context of the United States because you can't say that the world's misery is over. India, for example, is still experiencing bad numbers. If anything, if he had said the world's misery is ending, that would be US centric.
  - kuu 5y ago
    You're still missing the point. "National Misery" is where the error is coming, it's not National, it's affecting everyone
    - hawski 5y ago
      International Misery is made of many more or less separate National Miseries. This particular one, that affects the author personally the most is ending.
    - enkid 5y ago
      Just because the world is experiencing it doesn't also mean that a nation can't experience it. A family is Syria escaping the civil war can say their misery is ending without the civil war ending.
    - jhbadger 5y ago
      Do you have a problem with statements like "The Great Depression was the worst economic disaster in American history" because the same economic disaster was happening elsewhere (such as Germany, where it aided the rise of the Nazis).
misja111 5y ago
And now that it's ending there are, besides all the negative outcomes of course, some amazing benefits that have come out of the pandemic or at least were sped up: - the breakthrough of RNA based vaccins - a deeper understanding of how air based viruses spread (although much more research still needs to be done) - a lot of practical lessons learned about managing global virus outbreaks
- wccrawford 5y ago
  >the breakthrough of RNA based vaccins My understanding is that we were at that breakthrough anyhow. This was just the first chance to test it. The emergency sped up that testing, but it didn't create the breakthrough. The rest I agree with though. There's a ton of information we learned from this experience, and we're still learning.
  - kristjansson 5y ago
    Commercialization counts as breakthrough here I think. We’ve demonstrably solved all the problems required to get from labs to billions of arms
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- k-mcgrady 5y ago
  >> - a lot of practical lessons learned about managing global virus outbreaks You would think, but I feel like with each wave (and therefore each opportunity to learn from previous mistakes) countries repeated the mistakes of the past. I have very little confidence that if we were faced with a similar threat in the near future that things would be different.
- gerbilly 5y ago
  I think the biggest benefit will be that mRNA vaccines may be used more in cancer treatments. Now that we know they are safe (we've just had an informal clinical trial with hundreds of millions of patients) maybe they will get used more. This is just the first article I could find on treating cancer with mRNA immunotherapy: https://molecular-cancer.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12943-021-01335-5 https://molecular-cancer.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/... I'm sure there are many more.
wiz21c 5y ago
What are monoclonal antibodies ? I only hear about vaccines on the TV...
hnedeotes 5y ago
I'm really appalled that during this whole time we haven't seen anyone come up with a "Uber for facemasks", or "Uber for coffins". It just goes to show that a) capitalism alone can't do it, b) how irrational the market is. On the other hand, I read a few days here a post about oxygen anal delivery. I'm wondering if oxygen buttplugs wouldn't be a better, more scalable solution for the lack of oxygen machines? Used with the relevant safety precautions of course. "You may not leave your house without your face mask, nor your OButt. Remember, it's illegal to use more than 2bar pressure on the dispenser, we don't want rocket mans flying around - covid is airborne." Specially around Israel, you don't wanna be mistaken for a hamas rocket. Perhaps with a nudge from Musk we could get them adopted fairly easily, and it would play well with the flamethrowers too, since those need oxygen to work as well. In my mind it's Marketing101. Win win. Profit. Save lives. Poppers delivered where they should. I originally was a bit worried that we might be in a matrix ruled by bit flipped corrupt programs, as they shutdown beaches, but I come to realise that indeed, if covid comes in waves, there's no place with more waves than beaches so it makes a bit of sense.
- titzer 5y ago
  No idea why you are being downvoted...this comment is comedic genius!
yakshaving_jgt 5y ago
> All epidemics end, vaccine or no vaccine. The Spanish Flu ended. The Black Death ended. …HSV? HIV?
- gspr 5y ago
  I do not in any way mean to disregard the suffering of those living with HIV, but let's face it: the HIV epidemic is getting under control. The virus was a death sentence for much of the 80s and 90s. Now (in developed countries) you can live a full life with it. I am not a virologist, but it is my impression that the experts see that virus, too, being beat down in the next couple of decades. So while the HIV epidemic hasn't ended, we're winning. And it is likely to end.
  - sidewndr46 5y ago
    I feel like you're confusing society having a virus under control & an individuals treatment keeping an infection under control. With treatment, an individual can keep an HIV infection under control. Ultimately, you are still probably going to die of something HIV related. Earlier than you would have otherwise. It's expensive and not available to everyone. HIV itself is in no way under control. We have literally nothing other than testing people and trying to encourage those who are HIV positive to avoid behaviors that spread the disease. That's it. The only reason why it isn't any worse is because it already is so bad in some areas.
    - nradov 5y ago
      We are getting HIV spread under control in some countries through the use of PrEP drugs in high risk populations. Those appear to be highly effective.
  - akiselev 5y ago
    From [1]: > An estimated 1.7 million individuals worldwide acquired HIV in 2019, marking a 23% decline in new HIV infections since 2010.... > However, progress on the prevention of HIV transmission remains far too slow, with the estimated total number of new infections in 2019 more than three times higher than UNAIDS’s 2020 target. That's not "under control" or even remotely close to it, not even by UNAID's own goals. Needle exchange programs and general attitude shifts have certainly improved the situation in developed countries but cost, education, and logistical challenges with drug cocktails still hold back the rest of the world. [1] https://www.hiv.gov/hiv-basics/overview/data-and-trends/global-statistics https://www.hiv.gov/hiv-basics/overview/data-and-trends/glob...
bostonsre 5y ago
That was extremely pragmatic and well written.
drclau 5y ago
Beside everything we've been doing to fight Covid (lockdowns, testing, vaccinations), there's one more thing that we can do, and I don't think it's being discussed enough anywhere: eliminate as many of the Covid comorbidities as we can. I'm not an epidemiologist, nor am I a medical doctor, so take this with a grain of salt. Admittedly based on little data (ie. my reading the news, some stats here and there), I came up with the hypothesis that Covid is not killing old people more often, _but instead_ it's killing people with preexisting conditions. It just happens that old people are more likely to have comorbidities. Young people with comorbidities are killed too. Therefore, if we work on eliminating comorbidities, such as obesity (which would reduce the heart disease too), we may be able to reduce the impact of Covid. Obviously, tho, this is a long term plan. If anyone is aware of public conversations on this topic, please do share.
- jellicle 5y ago
  If you're 5 pounds overweight, you have a "comorbidity". If you die of COVID, I guess you were going to die anyway so it doesn't matter, right? No, your hypothesis is wrong. COVID has massively increased death rates, indicating that people who wouldn't have died before are dying now.
  - drclau 5y ago
    Ugh, you are literally putting words in my mouth. Don't do that to anyone, it's just horrible. I haven't said anything remotely like "if you die of COVID, I guess you were going to die anyway". Re-read my comment. I said that people with comorbidities are more likely to die of Covid. Hence, it follows, eliminating comorbidities will reduce the Covid death risk. And that, in the context of fighting _against_ Covid. I re-read my own comment, and I just don't see how you could misunderstand it so badly. Either you just glanced it and drew poor conclusions, or you are intentionally attempting to misdirect people who first read your comment (since you probably also made sure to downvote my own). Edit: Here's data from CDC to support the claims. Some of these are clearly things that can be improved. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/people-with-medical-conditions.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precaut...
  - 5y ago
mikewarot 5y ago
I'm in the US, so I should be fine now, right? Nope. I got sick last March, before testing was a thing, the case was mild, I lived upstairs in isolation from my family for a month. However, ever since I'm short of breath. It's been a year, I went through all the tests, heart, lungs, and even had an invasive probe of the pressures inside my heart. They had no reasons. Then I got laid off and insurance went away. Recently I found that If I stand, my heart rate rises 15 beats per minute, and goes right back down when I sit. Nobody knows how much damage this has done to those who are "over it". This is "long covid". I've been physically tired for a year. To know there are so many people like me, to see the pollicization, and subsequent complete disregard for the tools of science, is heart crushing. Sure, go ahead, think it's over... but what is over is a normal world. We HAD the chance to stop this, but blew it. What we're going to find we are collectively left with is the most horrid words anyone can hear in medicine, "a new normal".
- grillvogel 5y ago
  is this "long covid" or is it just the result of a year of physical inactivity?
  - mikewarot 5y ago
    It happened right away, and hasn't improved, even after getting completely vaccinated. I'm not in the greatest shape, but I was able to walk long distances before, the only limiting factor being a bum ankle.
- staticman2 5y ago
  FYI I'm no doctor but an internet search suggests heart rate rising 15 beats per minute when someone stands is normal: "Normally, the heart rate increases by 10 to 15 beats per minute when standing up, and then it settles down again." https://www.google.com/url?q=https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/mayo-clinic-q-and-a-all-about-pots-postural-tachycardia-syndrome/&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwjAxfOwvefwAhV1EFkFHafDCvQQFjAKegQIChAB&usg=AOvVaw2oNuMjGwLqSIc9VrQyGxL9 https://www.google.com/url?q=https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic....
edanm 5y ago
Here in Israel, it really feels like it's "over". There are still some restrictions, but more and more people are just going about their lives like normal. Masks are not mandatory outside (though many people still wear them), they are mandatory inside (though many people don't wear them inside anymore). And the most important thing - social events are back with a vengeance. You can basically do everything you could do a year and a half ago.
- red_trumpet 5y ago
  How do you feel about only ~60% of Israel's population is vaccinated? Does this seem to have a effect?
  - edanm 5y ago
    I'm not sure what the exact numbers are, but case counts are down to like ~20 per day so it seems like the vaccinations were enough to stop it entirely. Also, I live in Tel Aviv, which was never the hardest hit area.
    - tartoran 5y ago
      You’re saying that a large city was hit less than other less populated areas? How did Tel Aviv manage to mitigate the infections prior to the vaccinations? Complying citizens? Education campaigns?
      - mgerullis 5y ago
        Here in Germany the highest incidence numbers in the last months were raging in sparsely populated areas. The smaller the region the easier it is to have x incidents per 1000 people.
      - edanm 5y ago
        Look, I'm not exactly an expert. Tel Aviv was hit somewhat badly, one of the worst, but not the absolute worst. Mostly because most of the population here was somewhat more serious about social distancing / etc. Or rather, there were several other cities that were really really not careful (mostly religious areas). Tel Aviv also got vaccinated fairly fast compared to other places. At least that's my impression.
deegles 5y ago
I plan to keep wearing my mask on public transit and crowded places forever. I like the anonymity and I'll be protected from influenza and the common cold. It's a small price to pay.
- tluyben2 5y ago
  I don't know anymore what the latest is (it changes from yourself, others, both, none in the newspapers here), but doesn't the person wearing the mask protect others, not themselves by wearing it?
  - Retric 5y ago
    All masks provide some protection for the user from air born droplets produced by coughing and sneezing. N95 masks or the equivalent provide significant protection from catching the disease. Though eye protection is still very important when treating patients with COVID. Also, it’s important to realize that initial viral load makes a significant difference in how sick people get. Simply reducing exposure can therefore reduce how sick someone becomes.
    - akiselev 5y ago
      The jury is out on whether N95's provide any extra protection over a thick bandana or blown plastic surgical masks for the general public, isn't it? The average person cannot be expected to fit an N95 properly.
      - jfkvktnrnr 5y ago
        A totally unfit N95 has way less leakage than a very carefully fit surgical mask. Just try it for yourself, put a N95 on you face and don't even press the metal nose thing, and then see if you can fit a surgical mask better than this unfit N95. This is another meme which needs to die.
        akiselev 5y ago
wffurr 5y ago
"those top 10 causes of death are abetted by risks some of us long ago rationally (or semi-rationally) decided to accept: smoking, drinking, overeating, driving, kissing, chainsaw-juggling and so on." I wish we could, as a society, rationally work on reducing some of those risks. Smoking is on its way out, finally, with substantial public education, taxes, peer pressure, etc. But smoking mostly only affects oneself, second-hand smoke notwithstanding. Some risks, like choosing to drive all the time including while angry, sleep-deprived, distracted, etc., or choosing not to be vaccinated, aren't just on yourself, they're increasing the risk for everyone around you. I can't safely go the store even if I choose to walk or bike because some jackass might decide to pick up a french fry instead of look where they're going and jump the sidewalk or veer into the bike lane and turn me into paste. There's not really anything I can do about it, except huddle in fear in my house. It's infuriating. Similarly while I'm vaccinated and thus my risk of hospitalization or death from COVID 19 is effectively 0, my three year old son is not. People choosing not to vaccinate are putting him at risk, which really twists me up inside.
- floxy 5y ago
  >Similarly while I'm vaccinated and thus my risk of hospitalization or death from COVID 19 is effectively 0, my three year old son is not. When will you get your son vaccinated?
  - wffurr 5y ago
    As soon as vaccines are available for his age group.
- bubbleRefuge 5y ago
  This post is akin to someone pinching me and saying "hey, we live in polarized country!" The so called culture wars just seem to be escalating.
  - wffurr 5y ago
    What part of this is in any way related to "culture war"?
Synaesthesia 5y ago
Yes only if you look at the USA. Look right across at Colombia, Brazil, Africa, India and the middle east and tell me it's over ..
- FlyingSnake 5y ago
  I know India is vast and it has a long way to go, but there is a general downward trend in the cases in India.[1] [^1]: https://mobile.twitter.com/ShamikaRavi/status/1397493688511516681 https://mobile.twitter.com/ShamikaRavi/status/13974936885115...
  - Synaesthesia 5y ago
    That's encouraging but it's far from under control. And the trends are upward here in South Africa, and a lot of other countries. Even though our numbers are fairly low right now we've seen how this thing resurges really quickly. Without enough people vacinnated or with antibodies it's not under control.
    - paulmd 5y ago
      also the more people that get it the more chance for it to mutate, potentially in ways that the vaccines will no longer catch. getting the developed world vaccinated is a start but letting the developing world continue to be a petri dish will eventually come back to bite us.
  - raydev 5y ago
    Sure, and the US and Canada had a downward trend last year before new peaks happened in fall/winter.
kqr2 5y ago
The Black Death ended. And yes, in those cases, herd immunity did it. Did the Black Death really end because of herd immunity?
- hackerbabz 5y ago
  Herd immunity is easier when 1/3 of the herd died from the disease. But they also did figure out quarantines eventually. "Quarantine" comes from the 40 day waiting period imposed on ships as a result of the black plague.
- marcosdumay 5y ago
  AFAIK nobody knows. A lot of things changed at the same time.
tomjen3 5y ago
I haven't heard of any strains that were not seriously harmed by the vaccines. We are going to put the vaccines in the arms of pretty much the entire western world and a good part of the third, with more to come. We can, and should, kill this sucker just as dead as we did smallpox.
- loveistheanswer 5y ago
  Smallpox only transmitted through humans. If you want to attempt to erradicate covid19, you'll also have to vaccinate all the animals, wild and domesticated, which carry the virus.
lamontcg 5y ago
All the respiratory viruses we currently live with probably started as pandemics. The 1918 flu became seasonal flu, other human coronaviruses probably were much worse when they first jumped to humans. > Taming a pandemic > One year after its emergence, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has become so widespread that there is little hope of elimination. There are, however, several other human coronaviruses that are endemic and cause multiple reinfections that engender sufficient immunity to protect against severe adult disease. By making assumptions about acquired immunity from its already endemic relatives, Lavine et al. developed a model with which to analyze the trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 into endemicity. The model accounts for SARS-CoV-2's age-structured disease profile and assesses the impact of vaccination. The transition from epidemic to endemic dynamics is associated with a shift in the age distribution of primary infections to younger age groups, which in turn depends on how fast the virus spreads. Longer-lasting sterilizing immunity will slow the transition to endemicity. Depending on the type of immune response it engenders, a vaccine could accelerate establishment of a state of mild disease endemicity. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6530/741 https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6530/741
newaccount2021 5y ago
The Branch Covidians won't go down without a fight, as this thread shows. Now its a "crisis" that toddlers aren't vaccinated. Tomorrow, it will be pets. Who knows what comes after that. Five years from now, no one will admit to being a Branch Covidian.
lr1970 5y ago
For the context: Donald G. McNeil Jr., the author of the article, was a prominent journalist for New York Times leading their COVID-19 coverage from the beginning of the disease. He was abruptly dismissed from NYT citing his use of some questionable language while on trip to Peru [0]. I wonder what role if any his COVID coverage played in his firing. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_McNeil_Jr https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_McNeil_Jr. EDIT: wikipedia link ends in dot `.` that is stripped by the HN URL validator. If the link does not open add dot `.` at the end.
- tzs 5y ago
  For future reference, write the dot as %2e in the URL and it will not be molested by the validator. Like this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_McNeil_Jr%2e https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_McNeil_Jr%2e.
- TMWNN 5y ago
  >I wonder what role if any his COVID coverage played in his firing. The Times was pushing hard for McNeil to get a Pulitzer for his COVID19 coverage until his firing.
wtmt 5y ago
The title is true for some definition of "near" and some definition of "here". Here in India, the official "second wave" now has been brutal. Just a few months ago, nobody thought there could be any further lockdowns since the ones earlier last year hit the economy and livelihood of hundreds of millions of people quite hard. But here we are, with extended lockdowns for several weeks in many states. Unlike other countries, vaccine procurement wasn't given a big enough push last year by the Indian government. Some other countries were also good at vaccine stockpiling with massive orders to producers. By some estimates, [1] vaccinating a higher percentage of the Indian population (required for herd immunity and to keep the rate of new infections lower) would go well into 2024! The same is said to apply for the rest of the world. [2] I don't think reality would be so bad though. Ramp up will accelerate quicker with more producers lining up. But we'd probably be still looking at end 2022 or later in India for mass vaccination to be done. The cost to the society is quite high with lockdowns and restrictions (not saying that these are totally unnecessary). Anyone who's optimistic that "the end is near" would have to ensure that movement of people from other countries (with other variants and higher rates of infection) is prevented or highly restricted. That's easier said than done when the time frame is long. You wouldn't even know that there are new variants until they have taken ahold in large numbers. I have to conclude that the end is not anywhere near right now. [1]: https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/at-current-rate-india-will-vaccinate-75-population-only-by-mid-2024-121051901234_1.html https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/at-... [2]:https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/we-wont-have-enough-covid-19-vaccine-for-everybody-until-2024-warns-worlds-largest-vaccine-producer/ar-BB191Mdb https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/we-wont-have-enough...
- chefkoch 5y ago
  And lots of other countries rely in India for their vaccines and oxygen. If India Restriffs exports of both for a long time, these countries are in real trouble.
bamboozled 5y ago
Good for Americans really. It’s not over for the rest of the world. “Murica!”
GuB-42 5y ago
For me, the best part is that we very well may have stopped the pandemic in its track, with vaccines. I don't think we have a precedent. The usual way we dealt with pandemics was to let people die, a lot until things settled down. We could "flatten the curve" but we didn't really have a way to fight back. Vaccines helped fighting diseases that were already endemic. But here, it looks like we are beating covid before it has reached its full potential.
RickJWagner 5y ago
So thankful for Operation Light Speed. It truly delivered amazing results.
rapjr9 5y ago
So were the epidemiologists wrong about herd immunity and the USA has hit herd immunity at 50% vaccinated (plus natural infections, some of whom also got vaccinated)? I do not think we know what is going on right now, it is very strange that infections are receding in the USA. It is not due to weather, the USA South had spread last Summer while the NorthEast receded. We have been experiencing waves but it is not entirely clear what is causing them. 50% vaccinated is not enough to stop the spread so something else is. My theory is that there is much more asymptomatic spread than we know of and the waves are due to variants. Each new variant spreads and burns itself out till the next takes over. People who were naturally infected instead of vaccinated may be more susceptible to variants; what happened in the Saychelles may support that idea: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/covid-19-vaccination-seychelles-variants-pfizer-moderna-14856378 https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/covid-19-vac... If that is not the cause of the waves, were the epidemiologists just wrong about herd immunity and we are already there? If variants are the cause of waves we could see another wave in the USA in several months as vaccinations taper off. I have not seen a good explanation for the waves yet. Some say people's behavior is the reason, but that can not explain what is currently happening in the USA.
betwixthewires 5y ago
It's been over for a long time for me. I decided one day that it is obvious, this virus is here to stay, and I won't live my life like a bug, hiding in corners afraid to be squashed. If the virus will exist forever but these conditions cannot, what better time than now to stop behaving in this unnatural way? So I did. And I've been happier because of it.

198 points by mpweiher 5y ago

> On the other hand, I’m not willing to fly to India just now. Not as much out of fear of Covid but because, if I happened to have, say, a heart attack, I clearly would be unable to get a hospital bed or an oxygen mask. It's very region-dependent. Mumbai peaked in early April. 60%+ of O2 beds in Mumbai are vacant.

thepangolino 5y ago
The O2 shortage blows my mind. Doesn't India have any industry it could have have redirected O2 production form?!
- kfifi 5y ago
  India did redirect industrial 02 production towards the hospitals. Part of the o2 shortage is zoning and logisticsz Delhi has zoning laws that ban manufacturing 02 within the city limits so all 02 has to be transported in.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - canadianfella 5y ago
    How hard is it to transport Oxygen for a few miles?
- michaelt 5y ago
  > Because of the sudden surge in demand for medical oxygen, currently most of the industrial oxygen in India is undergoing an additional purification step, and then being diverted for medical use. A major challenge is getting this oxygen from factories in eastern and southern states to the northern and western states which are most struggling with supply. It takes hours to fill a tanker with the highly flammable liquid oxygen, and once on the road, these vehicles must follow a strict speed limit of no more than 25 mph as well as not travelling at night, to avoid road accidents. https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/why-indian-hospitals-are-running-out-medical-oxygen-and-how-fix-it https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/why-indian-hospitals-are-r... (Readers who paid attention in school may recall oxygen isn't actually flammable - but it does considerably increase fire risks)
  - nie100sowny 5y ago
    It's strange that oxygen cannot be transported at night. In Europe all the critical and big volume transports goes often at night (wind turbines parts, ship components etc.)
    - ianai 5y ago
      You don’t lose an entire city block if a wind turbine truck flips and spills it’s cargo in a bad crash.
    - colechristensen 5y ago
      It would depend on infrastructure quality and traffic law adherence. Lots of places around the world have really terrible roads and nonexistent or nearly entirely unenforced road laws. Places like that you might want to be careful to not drive an enormous tank of flaming death around when you’re not so sure you can see each of 500 pot holes, or an oncoming driver. Basic infrastructure things are easily taken for granted.
    - chrisandchris 5y ago
      You never have been to India or have never seen a video of a street in India. There are no streets as we in the western know. There is a road and traffic just everywhere and nobody cares about traffic rules. It‘s a dangerous place to live. [Maybe a bit exxagarated]. Otherwise you would know that this _may easily_ result in an accident and no-one wants to have a truck full of O2 to blow up in the night in the middle of nowhere. At least during the day „you see where you go“.
  - falcolas 5y ago
    Oxygen might not be flammable, but it is caustic. Plus, does the distinction of what is flammable really matter when spilled LOX is 'allowing' everything around it to combust at the slightest spark?
- jmuguerza 5y ago
  They redirected ISRO's O2 production output to hospitals [1]. [1] https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/geo-imaging-satellite-gisat1-launch-further-delayed-704095 https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/geo-imaging-satellite...

soonnow 5y ago

I saw the news this week and the first stories were not about Covid. That is the first time I can remember, in a while. The pandemic is clearly coming to an end. Herd immunity or not, the systemic risk is going away in the US and other rich countries, leaving only the personal risk. If anything I wish the communication between the difference in systemic risk and individual risk had been better. People on Facebook have been talking about the 98% survivability for a long time. That sure sounds like a high number even though, a lottery with a 2% chance of winning sounds amazingly plausible. But the real risk has always been systemic. An exponential growth that overwhelms the healthcare system and leads to people dying, even those unaffected by Covid itself. Because they "chose" a day with an overwhelmed health care system, they may die when they have a heart attack or a traffic accident. With vaccination rates north of 60%, the systemic risk is gonna become smaller and smaller. As the article says, vaccinated people and people who have had it before will act as control rods for the reaction. Since Covid will not go away, the number of vaccinated will grow with vaccination efforts and the number who had it before will grow by itself. I strongly believe that most people on this planet are gonna be exposed to the spike protein, either through vaccination or Covid itself, herd immunity or no her immunity. I fell that makes an incredibly convincing case for vaccination, but I have not been able to convince any anti-vaxer with it, so there's that.

jonathanstrange 5y ago
I don't disagree with you, just want to mention that people on Facebook are very dumb if they think 98% survivability is a good rate, given how easily this disease is transmitted without stringent measures. Luckily, the estimated fatality rate with modern medical care is much lower.
- wiz21c 5y ago
  for an individual, it's "good" if you accept to have one chance over 50 to die of it. for a population, it's a lot of deaths. all depends if you think "you first" or "the other first"
  - soonnow 5y ago

mschuster91 5y ago

The core question that the author doesn't touch because he only deals with the absolute number of cases is: what happens with long covid? With prior epidemics, people were dead and that's it or they were alive and healthy soon-ish, the rate of survivors with horrible, lasting after effects always was low (such as with polio which left only ~1200 people in 1959 with an iron lung). Coronavirus in contrast is much, much more evil - even in young, healthy people such as athletes, there are numerous reports of a wide variety of symptoms: permanent lung damage due to scarring first and foremost, but also neural symptoms (ME/CFS), GI issues or mental health issues. Unfortunately, this isn't talked about much and - unlike an iron lung or scars - most symptoms can't be seen from just looking at a corona survivor, which leads to a widespread ignorance in just how immensely dangerous this virus is.

glangdale 5y ago
One of the bits of good news recently has been that vaccination apparently helps with long COVID too. But I agree with the idea of not being blasé about COVID due to the long-term morbidity effects. It will be interesting to see what sort of hangover Sweden has from their frankly idiotic policies.
- ynfnehf 5y ago
  Sweden have had fewer infections than a lot of other regions. If longcovid is a problem, I would be more worried about places like New York and London.
  - _Microft 5y ago
    Metropolitan areas might not be the best comparison for a territorial state like Sweden. The actual effect of policies might be more visible when viewed next to comparable countries, like their nordic neighbours. Here are the case numbers per inhabitant from the Johns Hopkins university dataset plotted against time (moving average with a window of seven days): https://mackuba.eu/corona/#compare.daily?pop=1&c=no,fi,dk,se&trend=7 https://mackuba.eu/corona/#compare.daily?pop=1&c=no,fi,dk,se...

glangdale 5y ago

Well, maybe. It's amusing to picture this article being written, in some variant, after each of those peaks with a different choice of x- and y-axis cutoffs. Comprehensive vaccination seems to be working, and I'm not one of those "amazing new variant" doomsayers who imagines that every variant is going to overcome vaccine resistance. The idea that we have a large pool of unvaccinated people coupled with a lot of cases seems like a neat way to exert selection pressure towards the creation of strains that are at least quite virulent, if not necessarily dangerous-to-vaccinated-people. But I'd say the air of celebration in these articles is premature, and the cliche that "oh, it will become endemic and we'll learn to live with it" tends to overlook that "endemic" covers a huge range of outcomes, including some unacceptably bad ones.

deleted 5y ago
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ianai 5y ago
The graphics there seem less than scientific somehow. Like messing with the y-axis marks. They also seem to only cover from April in at least one graph, but show dates from February 2020. Kinda seems suspect. I think the Spanish Flu and others ended by tapering off. Ie over a period of several months? I imagine society needs to learn it can trust the threat has passed by seeing an extended period of time without large surges.

0-_-0 5y ago

The flu "epidemic" never ended. The common cold "epidemic" never ended. If COVID mutates fast enough it will stay with us forever, with a potentially much higher mortality than the flu. The argument of the article boils down to "that's OK, you'll get used to it"

bb123 5y ago
I mean, what is the alternative? We spend the rest of our lives hiding in our houses? He is right - at some point we will collectively decide COVID is a risk worth running to actually live life. And it might be that it does make day-to-day activities more risky than before, but again, what is the alternative?
- hef19898 5y ago
  Vaccination. Once herd immunity is reached, and maybe maintained by regular booster shots, the risk of returning to normal life is negligable. And that's why this whole conspiracy nonsense around vaccines is so dangerous.
  - 0-_-0 5y ago
    The flu vaccine didn't stop the flu, it mutates faster than vaccines can keep up. You can make the argument [0] that vaccinating during a pandemic (during which new variants arise faster) creates evolutionary pressures that favor variants resistant to vaccines, increasing the chance that virus mutation can get ahead of vaccine development. (Which is not to say we should stop depoying vaccines of course) [0]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PgIUDn__WU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PgIUDn__WU
    - hef19898 5y ago
      Oh, sure. That's why yearly flu shots are a mix against the most likely flu strains for the given flu season. For Covid, I am not aware of a particular mutation defeating the existing vaccines. Besides the Indian one, which seems to cope better with a population that is to large extent vaccinated. And even that variant is then only dangerous for those not vaccinated. Short version: Any vaccine is better then no vaccine.

xiphias2 5y ago

,,We will probably have bad seasons and good seasons, as we do with flu'' The author underestimates the efficiency of the mRNA vaccines. Manufacturing still didn't ramp up to the levels necessary to vaccinate the whole world, but I would be surprised if the yearly mixed shot of flu/COVID vaccine wouldn't significantly decrease the endemics as well in the next few years. As a personal example, my mother was not taking the flu shot, because she experienced serious side effects that were not worth for her in return for the low efficiency.

the-dude 5y ago

We just got started. SARS, Mexican Flu, MERS, SARS v2. Following each other up in increased velocity due to ever increasing inter-connectivity. The same seems to be happening in the bio-industry : nowadays there always seems to be some infectious disease present, be it affecting chickens, cows or pigs.

samus 5y ago
Especially industrial husbandry is an invitation for diseases to spread and maybe manage to jump to humans. In severe cases, mass culling is the only way to stop epidemics among farmed animals. Which affects the price of animal products. Unless our governments subsidize that away...
- the-dude 5y ago
  Do you have any sources for diseases spreading from industrial husbandry which led to epidemic problems? This speculation is repeated over and over again, but is it really true or just speculation?
  - andrewtbham 5y ago
    I know mad cow disease came from farm raised cattle in the UK. People ate the beef and got mad cow disease. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bovine_spongiform_encephalopathy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bovine_spongiform_encephalopat...
    - the-dude 5y ago
      There are many cases of diseases jumping from animals too humans, I know of Mad Cow Disease. But it was not an epidemic problem IIRC.
  - pessimizer 5y ago
    Salmanella, E.Coli, Avian Flu, Swine Flu...

wheybags 5y ago

> our Great National Misery is ending Side note but, Americans take note: when you conflate "the world" with America like this, it really grinds everyone else's gears. This is an International misery.

op00to 5y ago
I’m an American and reading this was like sand grinding into my phone screen. :)
enkid 5y ago
I think he's probably talking in the context of the United States because you can't say that the world's misery is over. India, for example, is still experiencing bad numbers. If anything, if he had said the world's misery is ending, that would be US centric.
- kuu 5y ago
  You're still missing the point. "National Misery" is where the error is coming, it's not National, it's affecting everyone
  - hawski 5y ago
    International Misery is made of many more or less separate National Miseries. This particular one, that affects the author personally the most is ending.
  - enkid 5y ago
    Just because the world is experiencing it doesn't also mean that a nation can't experience it. A family is Syria escaping the civil war can say their misery is ending without the civil war ending.
  - jhbadger 5y ago
    Do you have a problem with statements like "The Great Depression was the worst economic disaster in American history" because the same economic disaster was happening elsewhere (such as Germany, where it aided the rise of the Nazis).

misja111 5y ago

And now that it's ending there are, besides all the negative outcomes of course, some amazing benefits that have come out of the pandemic or at least were sped up: - the breakthrough of RNA based vaccins - a deeper understanding of how air based viruses spread (although much more research still needs to be done) - a lot of practical lessons learned about managing global virus outbreaks

wccrawford 5y ago
>the breakthrough of RNA based vaccins My understanding is that we were at that breakthrough anyhow. This was just the first chance to test it. The emergency sped up that testing, but it didn't create the breakthrough. The rest I agree with though. There's a ton of information we learned from this experience, and we're still learning.
- kristjansson 5y ago
  Commercialization counts as breakthrough here I think. We’ve demonstrably solved all the problems required to get from labs to billions of arms
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
k-mcgrady 5y ago
>> - a lot of practical lessons learned about managing global virus outbreaks You would think, but I feel like with each wave (and therefore each opportunity to learn from previous mistakes) countries repeated the mistakes of the past. I have very little confidence that if we were faced with a similar threat in the near future that things would be different.
gerbilly 5y ago
I think the biggest benefit will be that mRNA vaccines may be used more in cancer treatments. Now that we know they are safe (we've just had an informal clinical trial with hundreds of millions of patients) maybe they will get used more. This is just the first article I could find on treating cancer with mRNA immunotherapy: https://molecular-cancer.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12943-021-01335-5 https://molecular-cancer.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/... I'm sure there are many more.

wiz21c 5y ago

What are monoclonal antibodies ? I only hear about vaccines on the TV...

hnedeotes 5y ago

I'm really appalled that during this whole time we haven't seen anyone come up with a "Uber for facemasks", or "Uber for coffins". It just goes to show that a) capitalism alone can't do it, b) how irrational the market is. On the other hand, I read a few days here a post about oxygen anal delivery. I'm wondering if oxygen buttplugs wouldn't be a better, more scalable solution for the lack of oxygen machines? Used with the relevant safety precautions of course. "You may not leave your house without your face mask, nor your OButt. Remember, it's illegal to use more than 2bar pressure on the dispenser, we don't want rocket mans flying around - covid is airborne." Specially around Israel, you don't wanna be mistaken for a hamas rocket. Perhaps with a nudge from Musk we could get them adopted fairly easily, and it would play well with the flamethrowers too, since those need oxygen to work as well. In my mind it's Marketing101. Win win. Profit. Save lives. Poppers delivered where they should. I originally was a bit worried that we might be in a matrix ruled by bit flipped corrupt programs, as they shutdown beaches, but I come to realise that indeed, if covid comes in waves, there's no place with more waves than beaches so it makes a bit of sense.

titzer 5y ago
No idea why you are being downvoted...this comment is comedic genius!

yakshaving_jgt 5y ago

> All epidemics end, vaccine or no vaccine. The Spanish Flu ended. The Black Death ended. …HSV? HIV?

gspr 5y ago
I do not in any way mean to disregard the suffering of those living with HIV, but let's face it: the HIV epidemic is getting under control. The virus was a death sentence for much of the 80s and 90s. Now (in developed countries) you can live a full life with it. I am not a virologist, but it is my impression that the experts see that virus, too, being beat down in the next couple of decades. So while the HIV epidemic hasn't ended, we're winning. And it is likely to end.
- sidewndr46 5y ago
  I feel like you're confusing society having a virus under control & an individuals treatment keeping an infection under control. With treatment, an individual can keep an HIV infection under control. Ultimately, you are still probably going to die of something HIV related. Earlier than you would have otherwise. It's expensive and not available to everyone. HIV itself is in no way under control. We have literally nothing other than testing people and trying to encourage those who are HIV positive to avoid behaviors that spread the disease. That's it. The only reason why it isn't any worse is because it already is so bad in some areas.
  - nradov 5y ago
    We are getting HIV spread under control in some countries through the use of PrEP drugs in high risk populations. Those appear to be highly effective.
- akiselev 5y ago
  From [1]: > An estimated 1.7 million individuals worldwide acquired HIV in 2019, marking a 23% decline in new HIV infections since 2010.... > However, progress on the prevention of HIV transmission remains far too slow, with the estimated total number of new infections in 2019 more than three times higher than UNAIDS’s 2020 target. That's not "under control" or even remotely close to it, not even by UNAID's own goals. Needle exchange programs and general attitude shifts have certainly improved the situation in developed countries but cost, education, and logistical challenges with drug cocktails still hold back the rest of the world. [1] https://www.hiv.gov/hiv-basics/overview/data-and-trends/global-statistics https://www.hiv.gov/hiv-basics/overview/data-and-trends/glob...

bostonsre 5y ago

That was extremely pragmatic and well written.

drclau 5y ago

Beside everything we've been doing to fight Covid (lockdowns, testing, vaccinations), there's one more thing that we can do, and I don't think it's being discussed enough anywhere: eliminate as many of the Covid comorbidities as we can. I'm not an epidemiologist, nor am I a medical doctor, so take this with a grain of salt. Admittedly based on little data (ie. my reading the news, some stats here and there), I came up with the hypothesis that Covid is not killing old people more often, _but instead_ it's killing people with preexisting conditions. It just happens that old people are more likely to have comorbidities. Young people with comorbidities are killed too. Therefore, if we work on eliminating comorbidities, such as obesity (which would reduce the heart disease too), we may be able to reduce the impact of Covid. Obviously, tho, this is a long term plan. If anyone is aware of public conversations on this topic, please do share.

jellicle 5y ago
If you're 5 pounds overweight, you have a "comorbidity". If you die of COVID, I guess you were going to die anyway so it doesn't matter, right? No, your hypothesis is wrong. COVID has massively increased death rates, indicating that people who wouldn't have died before are dying now.
- drclau 5y ago
  Ugh, you are literally putting words in my mouth. Don't do that to anyone, it's just horrible. I haven't said anything remotely like "if you die of COVID, I guess you were going to die anyway". Re-read my comment. I said that people with comorbidities are more likely to die of Covid. Hence, it follows, eliminating comorbidities will reduce the Covid death risk. And that, in the context of fighting _against_ Covid. I re-read my own comment, and I just don't see how you could misunderstand it so badly. Either you just glanced it and drew poor conclusions, or you are intentionally attempting to misdirect people who first read your comment (since you probably also made sure to downvote my own). Edit: Here's data from CDC to support the claims. Some of these are clearly things that can be improved. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/people-with-medical-conditions.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precaut...
- 5y ago

mikewarot 5y ago

I'm in the US, so I should be fine now, right? Nope. I got sick last March, before testing was a thing, the case was mild, I lived upstairs in isolation from my family for a month. However, ever since I'm short of breath. It's been a year, I went through all the tests, heart, lungs, and even had an invasive probe of the pressures inside my heart. They had no reasons. Then I got laid off and insurance went away. Recently I found that If I stand, my heart rate rises 15 beats per minute, and goes right back down when I sit. Nobody knows how much damage this has done to those who are "over it". This is "long covid". I've been physically tired for a year. To know there are so many people like me, to see the pollicization, and subsequent complete disregard for the tools of science, is heart crushing. Sure, go ahead, think it's over... but what is over is a normal world. We HAD the chance to stop this, but blew it. What we're going to find we are collectively left with is the most horrid words anyone can hear in medicine, "a new normal".

grillvogel 5y ago
is this "long covid" or is it just the result of a year of physical inactivity?
- mikewarot 5y ago
  It happened right away, and hasn't improved, even after getting completely vaccinated. I'm not in the greatest shape, but I was able to walk long distances before, the only limiting factor being a bum ankle.
staticman2 5y ago
FYI I'm no doctor but an internet search suggests heart rate rising 15 beats per minute when someone stands is normal: "Normally, the heart rate increases by 10 to 15 beats per minute when standing up, and then it settles down again." https://www.google.com/url?q=https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/mayo-clinic-q-and-a-all-about-pots-postural-tachycardia-syndrome/&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwjAxfOwvefwAhV1EFkFHafDCvQQFjAKegQIChAB&usg=AOvVaw2oNuMjGwLqSIc9VrQyGxL9 https://www.google.com/url?q=https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic....

edanm 5y ago

Here in Israel, it really feels like it's "over". There are still some restrictions, but more and more people are just going about their lives like normal. Masks are not mandatory outside (though many people still wear them), they are mandatory inside (though many people don't wear them inside anymore). And the most important thing - social events are back with a vengeance. You can basically do everything you could do a year and a half ago.

red_trumpet 5y ago
How do you feel about only ~60% of Israel's population is vaccinated? Does this seem to have a effect?
- edanm 5y ago
  I'm not sure what the exact numbers are, but case counts are down to like ~20 per day so it seems like the vaccinations were enough to stop it entirely. Also, I live in Tel Aviv, which was never the hardest hit area.
  - tartoran 5y ago
    You’re saying that a large city was hit less than other less populated areas? How did Tel Aviv manage to mitigate the infections prior to the vaccinations? Complying citizens? Education campaigns?
    - mgerullis 5y ago
      Here in Germany the highest incidence numbers in the last months were raging in sparsely populated areas. The smaller the region the easier it is to have x incidents per 1000 people.
    - edanm 5y ago
      Look, I'm not exactly an expert. Tel Aviv was hit somewhat badly, one of the worst, but not the absolute worst. Mostly because most of the population here was somewhat more serious about social distancing / etc. Or rather, there were several other cities that were really really not careful (mostly religious areas). Tel Aviv also got vaccinated fairly fast compared to other places. At least that's my impression.

deegles 5y ago

I plan to keep wearing my mask on public transit and crowded places forever. I like the anonymity and I'll be protected from influenza and the common cold. It's a small price to pay.

tluyben2 5y ago
I don't know anymore what the latest is (it changes from yourself, others, both, none in the newspapers here), but doesn't the person wearing the mask protect others, not themselves by wearing it?
- Retric 5y ago
  All masks provide some protection for the user from air born droplets produced by coughing and sneezing. N95 masks or the equivalent provide significant protection from catching the disease. Though eye protection is still very important when treating patients with COVID. Also, it’s important to realize that initial viral load makes a significant difference in how sick people get. Simply reducing exposure can therefore reduce how sick someone becomes.
  - akiselev 5y ago
    The jury is out on whether N95's provide any extra protection over a thick bandana or blown plastic surgical masks for the general public, isn't it? The average person cannot be expected to fit an N95 properly.
    - jfkvktnrnr 5y ago
      A totally unfit N95 has way less leakage than a very carefully fit surgical mask. Just try it for yourself, put a N95 on you face and don't even press the metal nose thing, and then see if you can fit a surgical mask better than this unfit N95. This is another meme which needs to die.
      - akiselev 5y ago

wffurr 5y ago

"those top 10 causes of death are abetted by risks some of us long ago rationally (or semi-rationally) decided to accept: smoking, drinking, overeating, driving, kissing, chainsaw-juggling and so on." I wish we could, as a society, rationally work on reducing some of those risks. Smoking is on its way out, finally, with substantial public education, taxes, peer pressure, etc. But smoking mostly only affects oneself, second-hand smoke notwithstanding. Some risks, like choosing to drive all the time including while angry, sleep-deprived, distracted, etc., or choosing not to be vaccinated, aren't just on yourself, they're increasing the risk for everyone around you. I can't safely go the store even if I choose to walk or bike because some jackass might decide to pick up a french fry instead of look where they're going and jump the sidewalk or veer into the bike lane and turn me into paste. There's not really anything I can do about it, except huddle in fear in my house. It's infuriating. Similarly while I'm vaccinated and thus my risk of hospitalization or death from COVID 19 is effectively 0, my three year old son is not. People choosing not to vaccinate are putting him at risk, which really twists me up inside.

floxy 5y ago
>Similarly while I'm vaccinated and thus my risk of hospitalization or death from COVID 19 is effectively 0, my three year old son is not. When will you get your son vaccinated?
- wffurr 5y ago
  As soon as vaccines are available for his age group.
bubbleRefuge 5y ago
This post is akin to someone pinching me and saying "hey, we live in polarized country!" The so called culture wars just seem to be escalating.
- wffurr 5y ago
  What part of this is in any way related to "culture war"?

Synaesthesia 5y ago

Yes only if you look at the USA. Look right across at Colombia, Brazil, Africa, India and the middle east and tell me it's over ..

FlyingSnake 5y ago
I know India is vast and it has a long way to go, but there is a general downward trend in the cases in India.[1] [^1]: https://mobile.twitter.com/ShamikaRavi/status/1397493688511516681 https://mobile.twitter.com/ShamikaRavi/status/13974936885115...
- Synaesthesia 5y ago
  That's encouraging but it's far from under control. And the trends are upward here in South Africa, and a lot of other countries. Even though our numbers are fairly low right now we've seen how this thing resurges really quickly. Without enough people vacinnated or with antibodies it's not under control.
  - paulmd 5y ago
    also the more people that get it the more chance for it to mutate, potentially in ways that the vaccines will no longer catch. getting the developed world vaccinated is a start but letting the developing world continue to be a petri dish will eventually come back to bite us.
- raydev 5y ago
  Sure, and the US and Canada had a downward trend last year before new peaks happened in fall/winter.

kqr2 5y ago

The Black Death ended. And yes, in those cases, herd immunity did it. Did the Black Death really end because of herd immunity?

hackerbabz 5y ago
Herd immunity is easier when 1/3 of the herd died from the disease. But they also did figure out quarantines eventually. "Quarantine" comes from the 40 day waiting period imposed on ships as a result of the black plague.
marcosdumay 5y ago
AFAIK nobody knows. A lot of things changed at the same time.

tomjen3 5y ago

I haven't heard of any strains that were not seriously harmed by the vaccines. We are going to put the vaccines in the arms of pretty much the entire western world and a good part of the third, with more to come. We can, and should, kill this sucker just as dead as we did smallpox.

loveistheanswer 5y ago
Smallpox only transmitted through humans. If you want to attempt to erradicate covid19, you'll also have to vaccinate all the animals, wild and domesticated, which carry the virus.

lamontcg 5y ago

All the respiratory viruses we currently live with probably started as pandemics. The 1918 flu became seasonal flu, other human coronaviruses probably were much worse when they first jumped to humans. > Taming a pandemic > One year after its emergence, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has become so widespread that there is little hope of elimination. There are, however, several other human coronaviruses that are endemic and cause multiple reinfections that engender sufficient immunity to protect against severe adult disease. By making assumptions about acquired immunity from its already endemic relatives, Lavine et al. developed a model with which to analyze the trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 into endemicity. The model accounts for SARS-CoV-2's age-structured disease profile and assesses the impact of vaccination. The transition from epidemic to endemic dynamics is associated with a shift in the age distribution of primary infections to younger age groups, which in turn depends on how fast the virus spreads. Longer-lasting sterilizing immunity will slow the transition to endemicity. Depending on the type of immune response it engenders, a vaccine could accelerate establishment of a state of mild disease endemicity. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6530/741 https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6530/741

newaccount2021 5y ago

The Branch Covidians won't go down without a fight, as this thread shows. Now its a "crisis" that toddlers aren't vaccinated. Tomorrow, it will be pets. Who knows what comes after that. Five years from now, no one will admit to being a Branch Covidian.

lr1970 5y ago

For the context: Donald G. McNeil Jr., the author of the article, was a prominent journalist for New York Times leading their COVID-19 coverage from the beginning of the disease. He was abruptly dismissed from NYT citing his use of some questionable language while on trip to Peru [0]. I wonder what role if any his COVID coverage played in his firing. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_McNeil_Jr https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_McNeil_Jr. EDIT: wikipedia link ends in dot `.` that is stripped by the HN URL validator. If the link does not open add dot `.` at the end.

tzs 5y ago
For future reference, write the dot as %2e in the URL and it will not be molested by the validator. Like this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_McNeil_Jr%2e https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_McNeil_Jr%2e.
TMWNN 5y ago
>I wonder what role if any his COVID coverage played in his firing. The Times was pushing hard for McNeil to get a Pulitzer for his COVID19 coverage until his firing.

wtmt 5y ago

The title is true for some definition of "near" and some definition of "here". Here in India, the official "second wave" now has been brutal. Just a few months ago, nobody thought there could be any further lockdowns since the ones earlier last year hit the economy and livelihood of hundreds of millions of people quite hard. But here we are, with extended lockdowns for several weeks in many states. Unlike other countries, vaccine procurement wasn't given a big enough push last year by the Indian government. Some other countries were also good at vaccine stockpiling with massive orders to producers. By some estimates, [1] vaccinating a higher percentage of the Indian population (required for herd immunity and to keep the rate of new infections lower) would go well into 2024! The same is said to apply for the rest of the world. [2] I don't think reality would be so bad though. Ramp up will accelerate quicker with more producers lining up. But we'd probably be still looking at end 2022 or later in India for mass vaccination to be done. The cost to the society is quite high with lockdowns and restrictions (not saying that these are totally unnecessary). Anyone who's optimistic that "the end is near" would have to ensure that movement of people from other countries (with other variants and higher rates of infection) is prevented or highly restricted. That's easier said than done when the time frame is long. You wouldn't even know that there are new variants until they have taken ahold in large numbers. I have to conclude that the end is not anywhere near right now. [1]: https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/at-current-rate-india-will-vaccinate-75-population-only-by-mid-2024-121051901234_1.html https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/at-... [2]:https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/we-wont-have-enough-covid-19-vaccine-for-everybody-until-2024-warns-worlds-largest-vaccine-producer/ar-BB191Mdb https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/we-wont-have-enough...

chefkoch 5y ago
And lots of other countries rely in India for their vaccines and oxygen. If India Restriffs exports of both for a long time, these countries are in real trouble.

bamboozled 5y ago

Good for Americans really. It’s not over for the rest of the world. “Murica!”

GuB-42 5y ago

For me, the best part is that we very well may have stopped the pandemic in its track, with vaccines. I don't think we have a precedent. The usual way we dealt with pandemics was to let people die, a lot until things settled down. We could "flatten the curve" but we didn't really have a way to fight back. Vaccines helped fighting diseases that were already endemic. But here, it looks like we are beating covid before it has reached its full potential.

RickJWagner 5y ago

So thankful for Operation Light Speed. It truly delivered amazing results.

rapjr9 5y ago

So were the epidemiologists wrong about herd immunity and the USA has hit herd immunity at 50% vaccinated (plus natural infections, some of whom also got vaccinated)? I do not think we know what is going on right now, it is very strange that infections are receding in the USA. It is not due to weather, the USA South had spread last Summer while the NorthEast receded. We have been experiencing waves but it is not entirely clear what is causing them. 50% vaccinated is not enough to stop the spread so something else is. My theory is that there is much more asymptomatic spread than we know of and the waves are due to variants. Each new variant spreads and burns itself out till the next takes over. People who were naturally infected instead of vaccinated may be more susceptible to variants; what happened in the Saychelles may support that idea: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/covid-19-vaccination-seychelles-variants-pfizer-moderna-14856378 https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/covid-19-vac... If that is not the cause of the waves, were the epidemiologists just wrong about herd immunity and we are already there? If variants are the cause of waves we could see another wave in the USA in several months as vaccinations taper off. I have not seen a good explanation for the waves yet. Some say people's behavior is the reason, but that can not explain what is currently happening in the USA.

betwixthewires 5y ago

It's been over for a long time for me. I decided one day that it is obvious, this virus is here to stay, and I won't live my life like a bug, hiding in corners afraid to be squashed. If the virus will exist forever but these conditions cannot, what better time than now to stop behaving in this unnatural way? So I did. And I've been happier because of it.