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I think falling demand has a lot less to do with electric cars and more to do with the MPG in cars going up and people finally buying newer cars. Electric car p

I think falling demand has a lot less to do with electric cars and more to do with the MPG in cars going up and people finally buying newer cars. Electric car penetration in the US is not high enough to have a massive impact, but MPGs going up and newer models of cars getting on the road can have a massive impact. When it comes to electric vehicles, the question won't be oil, it will be the supply chain still being very polluting and China having a massive foothold on lithium supplies.

swampthinker 8y ago
2 points there: - Almost all manufacturers have admitted to BSing the MPG tests, so the gains in practice probably aren't as good as we think. - Ideally, that ratio will shift over time to be more on EV and efficiency gains.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- nradov 8y ago
  Most manufacturers haven't admitted to BSing the MPG tests. You're probably thinking of the widespread cheating on the pollution emissions tests, which was a separate problem.
yosito 8y ago
I wonder how much is due to people driving less. Totally anecdotal, but thanks to remote work, I've barely had a commute nor needed a car since 2012. I was barely ever driving, and I finally sold my car this spring and have been much happier without it. It seems that my lifestyle is trending, so maybe that's having an impact.
- ghaff 8y ago
  I doubt there's a big impact there for a variety of reasons. - A lot of people who work remotely still need/want cars. In fact, I'd speculate that one reason a lot of people are drawn to remote work is precisely so they don't need to live in expensive, crowded locations. - Remote work is still a fairly small slice. - In many cases, people who commute are commuting further/longer, in part because of housing prices in elite cities. I'm not sure how typical you are. Even though I mostly work remotely, I still drive a fair bit for recreational activities even aside from running local errands (which, in my case, I can't really do without a car).
  - PeterStuer 8y ago
    Since I work from home my annual km driven have fallen by 40%.
    - ghaff 8y ago
      I work mostly remotely and I drive fewer miles as well as a result—which is probably typical of most who work mostly or solely remote. But it in no ways affects my need to own a car. Though the car will presumably last longer as a result.
  - gwbas1c 8y ago
    > A lot of people who work remotely still need/want cars I work remotely and my wife and I have two cars. We do significantly less miles than when I worked in an office. Often our gas car sits in the garage for 2-3 days unused. This is because we try to do as many electric miles as we can.
  - macintux 8y ago
    I definitely drive more working remotely than I would if I commuted to the office. I like to work from different places throughout the day.
    - matwood 8y ago
      You work remote, but you drive further than if you went to the office?
  - dorfsmay 8y ago
    But family who had to have two cars can often downsize to one. I doubt it happens a lot though, because you cannot guaranty that you will be able to work remotely in your next job.
  - matwood 8y ago
    > - A lot of people who work remotely still need/want cars. Sure, but working remotely means I put gas in my car every 2 weeks instead of every week. I do agree that it's mostly like too small of slice of the population to make a difference yet though.
nopinsight 8y ago
Two factors not clearly stated, but linked to, in the article: - Electric buses, which have much higher usage than personal vehicles [1] - China’s sustained and increasingly stronger push for EVs [2] China is the largest land vehicles market in the world with 30% of global sales, so its moves have a large impact. [3] When the initial sales prices of EVs become competitive with ICE cars without subsidy, it is likely that Chinese EV manufacturers will push hard to expand markets in developing countries where cost is a major concern. They should have a cost advantage over established global brands. The flip to electric, for new car sales, could be quite rapid then. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-23/electric-buses-are-hurting-the-oil-industry https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-23/electric-... “The numbers are staggering. China had about 99 percent of the 385,000 electric buses on the roads worldwide in 2017, accounting for 17 percent of the country’s entire fleet. Every five weeks, Chinese cities add 9,500 of the zero-emissions transporters—the equivalent of London’s entire working fleet, according Bloomberg New Energy Finance.” [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-14/china-is-leading-the-world-to-an-electric-car-future https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-14/china-is-... “The world’s biggest market for electric vehicles wants to get even bigger, so it’s giving automakers what amounts to an ultimatum. Starting in January, all major manufacturers operating in China—from global giants Toyota Motor and General Motors to domestic players BYD and BAIC Motor—have to meet minimum requirements there for producing new-energy vehicles, or NEVs (plug-in hybrids, pure-battery electrics, and fuel-cell autos). A complex government equation requires that a sizable portion of their production or imports must be green in 2019, with escalating goals thereafter.” [3] http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/Sales-all-vehicles-2017.pdf http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/Sales-all-vehicles-20...
- bilbo0s 8y ago
  The writing is on the wall. Soon you won't be able to sell many ICE personal vehicles in China. Huge taxes will be levied on them, or the big bosses there will ban them altogether. (I would put money on a ban. The Chinese government always did have a fondness for blunt instruments.) In any case, it has now been confirmed that even companies like Ferrari and Maserati have electric vehicles in the works. Mainly with the Chinese market in mind, and targeted for 2020. So yeah, if the largest market is intent on a wholesale switch to electric, then that's definitely gonna have a big impact.
yawz 8y ago
> buying newer cars And unfortunately changing cars too often has a significant environmental cost. I think making of the car has as much as 50% of its average life-time carbon footprint. So buying a newer car may be increasing the MPG, but brings in a huge upfront environmental cost.
- WillPostForFood 8y ago
  But your aren't throwing away the old car when you upgrade. It goes on the used market and someone who has an even less efficient car buys it. Someone who probably can't afford a brand new maximally efficient car.
- guntars 8y ago
  Producing a gas vehicle is equivalent to two years of average driving as far as carbon footprint is concerned, according to this one guy on YouTube (https://youtu.be/6RhtiPefVzM https://youtu.be/6RhtiPefVzM)
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
- ndnxhs 8y ago
  Its a lot smaller than 50% but if the improvement is minimal then you might never offset the production emissions but if you are switching to an electric car it only takes about 2 years depending on the car and your location.

swampthinker 8y ago

2 points there: - Almost all manufacturers have admitted to BSing the MPG tests, so the gains in practice probably aren't as good as we think. - Ideally, that ratio will shift over time to be more on EV and efficiency gains.

deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
nradov 8y ago
Most manufacturers haven't admitted to BSing the MPG tests. You're probably thinking of the widespread cheating on the pollution emissions tests, which was a separate problem.

yosito 8y ago

I wonder how much is due to people driving less. Totally anecdotal, but thanks to remote work, I've barely had a commute nor needed a car since 2012. I was barely ever driving, and I finally sold my car this spring and have been much happier without it. It seems that my lifestyle is trending, so maybe that's having an impact.

ghaff 8y ago
I doubt there's a big impact there for a variety of reasons. - A lot of people who work remotely still need/want cars. In fact, I'd speculate that one reason a lot of people are drawn to remote work is precisely so they don't need to live in expensive, crowded locations. - Remote work is still a fairly small slice. - In many cases, people who commute are commuting further/longer, in part because of housing prices in elite cities. I'm not sure how typical you are. Even though I mostly work remotely, I still drive a fair bit for recreational activities even aside from running local errands (which, in my case, I can't really do without a car).
- PeterStuer 8y ago
  Since I work from home my annual km driven have fallen by 40%.
  - ghaff 8y ago
    I work mostly remotely and I drive fewer miles as well as a result—which is probably typical of most who work mostly or solely remote. But it in no ways affects my need to own a car. Though the car will presumably last longer as a result.
- gwbas1c 8y ago
  > A lot of people who work remotely still need/want cars I work remotely and my wife and I have two cars. We do significantly less miles than when I worked in an office. Often our gas car sits in the garage for 2-3 days unused. This is because we try to do as many electric miles as we can.
- macintux 8y ago
  I definitely drive more working remotely than I would if I commuted to the office. I like to work from different places throughout the day.
  - matwood 8y ago
    You work remote, but you drive further than if you went to the office?
- dorfsmay 8y ago
  But family who had to have two cars can often downsize to one. I doubt it happens a lot though, because you cannot guaranty that you will be able to work remotely in your next job.
- matwood 8y ago
  > - A lot of people who work remotely still need/want cars. Sure, but working remotely means I put gas in my car every 2 weeks instead of every week. I do agree that it's mostly like too small of slice of the population to make a difference yet though.

nopinsight 8y ago

Two factors not clearly stated, but linked to, in the article: - Electric buses, which have much higher usage than personal vehicles [1] - China’s sustained and increasingly stronger push for EVs [2] China is the largest land vehicles market in the world with 30% of global sales, so its moves have a large impact. [3] When the initial sales prices of EVs become competitive with ICE cars without subsidy, it is likely that Chinese EV manufacturers will push hard to expand markets in developing countries where cost is a major concern. They should have a cost advantage over established global brands. The flip to electric, for new car sales, could be quite rapid then. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-23/electric-buses-are-hurting-the-oil-industry https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-23/electric-... “The numbers are staggering. China had about 99 percent of the 385,000 electric buses on the roads worldwide in 2017, accounting for 17 percent of the country’s entire fleet. Every five weeks, Chinese cities add 9,500 of the zero-emissions transporters—the equivalent of London’s entire working fleet, according Bloomberg New Energy Finance.” [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-14/china-is-leading-the-world-to-an-electric-car-future https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-14/china-is-... “The world’s biggest market for electric vehicles wants to get even bigger, so it’s giving automakers what amounts to an ultimatum. Starting in January, all major manufacturers operating in China—from global giants Toyota Motor and General Motors to domestic players BYD and BAIC Motor—have to meet minimum requirements there for producing new-energy vehicles, or NEVs (plug-in hybrids, pure-battery electrics, and fuel-cell autos). A complex government equation requires that a sizable portion of their production or imports must be green in 2019, with escalating goals thereafter.” [3] http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/Sales-all-vehicles-2017.pdf http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/Sales-all-vehicles-20...

bilbo0s 8y ago
The writing is on the wall. Soon you won't be able to sell many ICE personal vehicles in China. Huge taxes will be levied on them, or the big bosses there will ban them altogether. (I would put money on a ban. The Chinese government always did have a fondness for blunt instruments.) In any case, it has now been confirmed that even companies like Ferrari and Maserati have electric vehicles in the works. Mainly with the Chinese market in mind, and targeted for 2020. So yeah, if the largest market is intent on a wholesale switch to electric, then that's definitely gonna have a big impact.

yawz 8y ago

> buying newer cars And unfortunately changing cars too often has a significant environmental cost. I think making of the car has as much as 50% of its average life-time carbon footprint. So buying a newer car may be increasing the MPG, but brings in a huge upfront environmental cost.

WillPostForFood 8y ago
But your aren't throwing away the old car when you upgrade. It goes on the used market and someone who has an even less efficient car buys it. Someone who probably can't afford a brand new maximally efficient car.
guntars 8y ago
Producing a gas vehicle is equivalent to two years of average driving as far as carbon footprint is concerned, according to this one guy on YouTube (https://youtu.be/6RhtiPefVzM https://youtu.be/6RhtiPefVzM)
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
ndnxhs 8y ago
Its a lot smaller than 50% but if the improvement is minimal then you might never offset the production emissions but if you are switching to an electric car it only takes about 2 years depending on the car and your location.