12 ms·

I feel that America is in the midst of a new gilded age; instead of Standard Oil, we have Amazon. Like the late 1920s, we saw losses in purchasing power of the

by Endama 8y ago

I feel that America is in the midst of a new gilded age; instead of Standard Oil, we have Amazon. Like the late 1920s, we saw losses in purchasing power of the average American, the collection of wealth among the top 1%, and disruption of our civic spaces as a result. I think the thing that many Americans aren't aware of was just how violent that time in US history was[1]. The US economy isn't just about how comfortable the average US citizen is, it is also a measure of how much cushion there is in our society between us being frustrated looking at a job board and being angry and armed in the streets. The teachers strikes in Oklahoma, Florida, and W. Virginia are showing the rise of Unions (much like in the gilded age as well). Protest and civic engagement must be our response, we should take signs like the wealth of Bezos as a cautionary tale, rather than something to simply marvel at. [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludlow_Massacre https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludlow_Massacre [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Matewan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Matewan [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1920_Alabama_coal_strike https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1920_Alabama_coal_strike [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Blair_Mountain https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Blair_Mountain

_bxg1 8y ago
The silver lining of this interpretation is that it implies our current trajectory to be cyclical, and not exponential. We may have to re-learn some lessons the hard way in the meantime, though.
- skookumchuck 8y ago
  Cyclical, no. It's an exponential system in the long term, and chaotic in the short term.
nostromo 8y ago
I think Bezos is a bad argument for us being in a new guilded age. When you look at Rockefeller, Carnegie, Ford, and perhaps even Gates, they had near total control over some aspect of the American Economy. And they used that control to make incredible profits. Amazon is trying to do the same, but they haven't done so yet. Their retail business is not wildly profitable (if at all). They haven't monopolized online retail (and may never be able to do so). Amazon may be the next Walmart, but they're not the next Standard Oil. And the market has priced in huge expectations that Amazon will eventually have to meet, or investor exuberance will wane.
- save_ferris 8y ago
  > When you look at Rockefeller, Carnegie, Ford, and perhaps even Gates, they had near total control over some aspect of the American Economy According to TechCrunch[1], Amazon controls 49% of the entire e-commerce market, and 5% of the entire retail market overall. They're also in a position to jockey for even more market share as retail continues to move online. Amazon is in the perfect position to completely own e-commerce, so it's quite possible that we're just early in making our comparison. [1] https://techcrunch.com/2018/07/13/amazons-share-of-the-us-e-commerce-market-is-now-49-or-5-of-all-retail-spend/ https://techcrunch.com/2018/07/13/amazons-share-of-the-us-e-...
  - stickfigure 8y ago
    49% could be the high-water mark; we don't know yet. If Amazon doesn't get a grip on the counterfeit product problem, sales could plummet. The switching cost to a new retailer is low.
    - sushid 8y ago
      But Amazon's war chest is near infite. Jet had half a billion in funding but was barely making a dent (while bleeding money) against Amazon and its unprofitable for anyone else pricing. Amazon barely makes a profit with their streamlined system so how can anyone compete with that. And we've seen what they can do when a competitor emerges like diapers.com. They bury them in the ground Walmart of the 90s style.
    - mistermann 8y ago
      > 49% could be the high-water mark; we don't know yet As could have been 25, 26, 32, 35, 37, etc If you were a betting man, would you bet 49% is a high water mark?
- zeusk 8y ago
  > Amazon is trying to do the same, but they haven't done so yet. They are not wildly profitable (if at all). They haven't monopolized online retail (and may never be able to do so). Please tell me you're being sarcastic. They're hiding profits and just plowing all the revenue back into the business while undercutting both competitors and their own employees.
aphextron 8y ago
Except we actually had a functioning federal government during the last gilded age, so we ended up with things like the Sherman Antitrust Act, and eventually the New Deal. I doubt we'll be so lucky this time around. Things are about to get absolutely brutal for the 90%.
- FussyZeus 8y ago
  Or the 1%. Something Rich people tend to forget is that the system of law and order we have now prevents armed uprising of the lower classes, which has a history of cropping up during very hard economic times. Not advocating, and I doubt I'd be one of them holding a pitchfork, but it is something to keep in mind.
  - tmpz22 8y ago
    Except nowadays even small local police departments have tanks and swat teams.
    - untog 8y ago
      Small local police departments are also staffed by the 90%, though. I find it difficult to imagine an uprising against the 1% in America any time soon, but if it did happen I can absolutely imagine the police siding against the 1%.
      - coliveira 8y ago
        Police forces are ideologically selected to protect the 1%. In extreme cases what you say is possible, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
      - suresk 8y ago
        At this point in America, pretty much everyone who has weapons and authority to use force is pretty ideologically aligned with the 1%. There is a pretty strong narrative in that group that all of these problems that many would ascribe to poor income equality are actually caused by immigrants, welfare recipients, and government. I think the chance of the police or military siding against the 1% is incredibly small.
vlunkr 8y ago
Are average Americans losing purchasing power? This is a real question, I don't know where to look that up.
- jdc 8y ago
  If you check CPI and income by percentile over time you get a pretty good idea.
- fullshark 8y ago
  Goods are cheaper, Rent + College Education + Healthcare is much more expensive.
  - prolikewh0a 8y ago
    Everything you really don't need is cheaper, everything you do need (rent, groceries, education) is much more expensive while wages haven't increased since the 90's.
    - mistermann 8y ago
      And inflation is completely within the desirable range, as it always is, regardless of any real world price changes. On a positive note, it is encouraging to see a much broader of diversity of opinion on certain topics lately, where one year ago many of the comments in this thread would have been heavily downvoted. I believe there is a genuine change of sentiment underway even among the well paid tech classes.
  - lixtra 8y ago
    I agree that certified education got more expensive. Education price in general got much cheaper with the Information Age. Just look at the body of knowledge that is available to everyone through scihub but also through legal venues. With enough of drive you can pick up a lot of knowledge for free. If you’re smart you can self-educate yourself in many areas to a better level than 80% of the ivy-league alumni. What you don’t get is: - certificates with prestige - network - extrinsic motivation
throwaway37585 8y ago
> losses in purchasing power of the average American Do you have data to back that up?
JumpCrisscross 8y ago
> America is in the midst of a new gilded age Why not golden instead of gilded? Per capita incomes are at an all time high, in real terms, and growing; violent crime per capita a historical low; and life expectancy high, though it could be higher. We are on the verge of tremendous technological advances in propulsion, AI, biology and energy. And more people are educated enough to wonder at those advancements than ever before.
- EasyTiger_ 8y ago
  Life expectancy has actually begun falling: https://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/21/health/us-life-expectancy-study/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/21/health/us-life-expectancy...
  - alecco 8y ago
    Thank obesity.
- NeoBasilisk 8y ago
  Do you really not understand how per capita income is not a meaningful statistic in a situation where income inequality is extremely high?
  - JumpCrisscross 8y ago
    > Do you really not understand how per capita income is not a meaningful statistic in a situation where income inequality is extremely high? Real median household income in the United States is up 20% from 1984. At 0.5% a year, that's less than it could be. But it's still objectively better than it was then, and much better than it was after WWI. Life today is better--for most Americans--than it was at virtually any time in the past.
csomar 8y ago
> I feel that America is in the midst of a new gilded age; instead of Standard Oil, we have Amazon. Except that Standard Oil probably had real oil (asset) and Amazon now has an inflated valuation based on potential future earnings. Apple to Oranges in my opinion. > The US economy isn't just about how comfortable the average US citizen is If people are comfortable, they'll accept whatever. Look at the middle-easter countries (Dubai, Qatar, Kuwait). Look at the American people pre-2008 crisis. The people of America are being squeezed by relentless financial predators (like banks), expensive wars that they have to fight and support (or maybe not but they are paying the price), globalization, expensive bureaucracy, etc...
- bumholio 8y ago
  >Standard Oil probably had real oil (asset) and Amazon now has an inflated valuation based on potential future earnings. Apple to Oranges Amazon has a dominant market position in online sales. It's not a natural resource but it a position that affords it strong economies of scale and, eventually, monopoly rents, just like those earned by Microsoft, Facebook or Google in their markets. Network effects are the oil of our age.
howard941 8y ago
Even though teachers are woefully underpaid here like most other state workers other than those who write laws or live in the governor's mansion there hasn't been a teachers strike in Florida for some time. See, for ex., http://news.wfsu.org/post/its-been-50-years-florida-teachers-went-strike-today-its-illegal-them-do-so http://news.wfsu.org/post/its-been-50-years-florida-teachers...
eezurr 8y ago
It may be ten years until the next Gilded Age. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss–Howe_generational_theory#Timing_of_generations_and_turnings https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss–Howe_generational_theo...

by Endama 8y ago

_bxg1 8y ago

The silver lining of this interpretation is that it implies our current trajectory to be cyclical, and not exponential. We may have to re-learn some lessons the hard way in the meantime, though.

skookumchuck 8y ago
Cyclical, no. It's an exponential system in the long term, and chaotic in the short term.

nostromo 8y ago

I think Bezos is a bad argument for us being in a new guilded age. When you look at Rockefeller, Carnegie, Ford, and perhaps even Gates, they had near total control over some aspect of the American Economy. And they used that control to make incredible profits. Amazon is trying to do the same, but they haven't done so yet. Their retail business is not wildly profitable (if at all). They haven't monopolized online retail (and may never be able to do so). Amazon may be the next Walmart, but they're not the next Standard Oil. And the market has priced in huge expectations that Amazon will eventually have to meet, or investor exuberance will wane.

save_ferris 8y ago
> When you look at Rockefeller, Carnegie, Ford, and perhaps even Gates, they had near total control over some aspect of the American Economy According to TechCrunch[1], Amazon controls 49% of the entire e-commerce market, and 5% of the entire retail market overall. They're also in a position to jockey for even more market share as retail continues to move online. Amazon is in the perfect position to completely own e-commerce, so it's quite possible that we're just early in making our comparison. [1] https://techcrunch.com/2018/07/13/amazons-share-of-the-us-e-commerce-market-is-now-49-or-5-of-all-retail-spend/ https://techcrunch.com/2018/07/13/amazons-share-of-the-us-e-...
- stickfigure 8y ago
  49% could be the high-water mark; we don't know yet. If Amazon doesn't get a grip on the counterfeit product problem, sales could plummet. The switching cost to a new retailer is low.
  - sushid 8y ago
    But Amazon's war chest is near infite. Jet had half a billion in funding but was barely making a dent (while bleeding money) against Amazon and its unprofitable for anyone else pricing. Amazon barely makes a profit with their streamlined system so how can anyone compete with that. And we've seen what they can do when a competitor emerges like diapers.com. They bury them in the ground Walmart of the 90s style.
  - mistermann 8y ago
    > 49% could be the high-water mark; we don't know yet As could have been 25, 26, 32, 35, 37, etc If you were a betting man, would you bet 49% is a high water mark?
zeusk 8y ago
> Amazon is trying to do the same, but they haven't done so yet. They are not wildly profitable (if at all). They haven't monopolized online retail (and may never be able to do so). Please tell me you're being sarcastic. They're hiding profits and just plowing all the revenue back into the business while undercutting both competitors and their own employees.

aphextron 8y ago

Except we actually had a functioning federal government during the last gilded age, so we ended up with things like the Sherman Antitrust Act, and eventually the New Deal. I doubt we'll be so lucky this time around. Things are about to get absolutely brutal for the 90%.

FussyZeus 8y ago
Or the 1%. Something Rich people tend to forget is that the system of law and order we have now prevents armed uprising of the lower classes, which has a history of cropping up during very hard economic times. Not advocating, and I doubt I'd be one of them holding a pitchfork, but it is something to keep in mind.
- tmpz22 8y ago
  Except nowadays even small local police departments have tanks and swat teams.
  - untog 8y ago
    Small local police departments are also staffed by the 90%, though. I find it difficult to imagine an uprising against the 1% in America any time soon, but if it did happen I can absolutely imagine the police siding against the 1%.
    - coliveira 8y ago
      Police forces are ideologically selected to protect the 1%. In extreme cases what you say is possible, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
    - suresk 8y ago
      At this point in America, pretty much everyone who has weapons and authority to use force is pretty ideologically aligned with the 1%. There is a pretty strong narrative in that group that all of these problems that many would ascribe to poor income equality are actually caused by immigrants, welfare recipients, and government. I think the chance of the police or military siding against the 1% is incredibly small.

vlunkr 8y ago

Are average Americans losing purchasing power? This is a real question, I don't know where to look that up.

jdc 8y ago
If you check CPI and income by percentile over time you get a pretty good idea.
fullshark 8y ago
Goods are cheaper, Rent + College Education + Healthcare is much more expensive.
- prolikewh0a 8y ago
  Everything you really don't need is cheaper, everything you do need (rent, groceries, education) is much more expensive while wages haven't increased since the 90's.
  - mistermann 8y ago
    And inflation is completely within the desirable range, as it always is, regardless of any real world price changes. On a positive note, it is encouraging to see a much broader of diversity of opinion on certain topics lately, where one year ago many of the comments in this thread would have been heavily downvoted. I believe there is a genuine change of sentiment underway even among the well paid tech classes.
- lixtra 8y ago
  I agree that certified education got more expensive. Education price in general got much cheaper with the Information Age. Just look at the body of knowledge that is available to everyone through scihub but also through legal venues. With enough of drive you can pick up a lot of knowledge for free. If you’re smart you can self-educate yourself in many areas to a better level than 80% of the ivy-league alumni. What you don’t get is: - certificates with prestige - network - extrinsic motivation

throwaway37585 8y ago

> losses in purchasing power of the average American Do you have data to back that up?

JumpCrisscross 8y ago

> America is in the midst of a new gilded age Why not golden instead of gilded? Per capita incomes are at an all time high, in real terms, and growing; violent crime per capita a historical low; and life expectancy high, though it could be higher. We are on the verge of tremendous technological advances in propulsion, AI, biology and energy. And more people are educated enough to wonder at those advancements than ever before.

EasyTiger_ 8y ago
Life expectancy has actually begun falling: https://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/21/health/us-life-expectancy-study/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/21/health/us-life-expectancy...
- alecco 8y ago
  Thank obesity.
NeoBasilisk 8y ago
Do you really not understand how per capita income is not a meaningful statistic in a situation where income inequality is extremely high?
- JumpCrisscross 8y ago
  > Do you really not understand how per capita income is not a meaningful statistic in a situation where income inequality is extremely high? Real median household income in the United States is up 20% from 1984. At 0.5% a year, that's less than it could be. But it's still objectively better than it was then, and much better than it was after WWI. Life today is better--for most Americans--than it was at virtually any time in the past.

csomar 8y ago

> I feel that America is in the midst of a new gilded age; instead of Standard Oil, we have Amazon. Except that Standard Oil probably had real oil (asset) and Amazon now has an inflated valuation based on potential future earnings. Apple to Oranges in my opinion. > The US economy isn't just about how comfortable the average US citizen is If people are comfortable, they'll accept whatever. Look at the middle-easter countries (Dubai, Qatar, Kuwait). Look at the American people pre-2008 crisis. The people of America are being squeezed by relentless financial predators (like banks), expensive wars that they have to fight and support (or maybe not but they are paying the price), globalization, expensive bureaucracy, etc...

bumholio 8y ago
>Standard Oil probably had real oil (asset) and Amazon now has an inflated valuation based on potential future earnings. Apple to Oranges Amazon has a dominant market position in online sales. It's not a natural resource but it a position that affords it strong economies of scale and, eventually, monopoly rents, just like those earned by Microsoft, Facebook or Google in their markets. Network effects are the oil of our age.

howard941 8y ago

Even though teachers are woefully underpaid here like most other state workers other than those who write laws or live in the governor's mansion there hasn't been a teachers strike in Florida for some time. See, for ex., http://news.wfsu.org/post/its-been-50-years-florida-teachers-went-strike-today-its-illegal-them-do-so http://news.wfsu.org/post/its-been-50-years-florida-teachers...

eezurr 8y ago

It may be ten years until the next Gilded Age. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss–Howe_generational_theory#Timing_of_generations_and_turnings https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss–Howe_generational_theo...