dirtyid

47 ms·

391.
by dirtyid 4y ago
This is great.
392.
by dirtyid 4y ago
>RU RU has already established (and now increasingly streamlined due to actually building for war) defense industrial base + PPP and autarkic resource advantages + will be forced maintain beyond 2% to rearm. Canada maybe richer but they&
393.
by dirtyid 4y ago
No, private ferries are duo use hulls EXPLICITYLY built to military standards "disguised" as / duo used for civilian purpose. As I've said, these RO/ROs will likely do brunt of the hulling because mil amphib includi
394.
by dirtyid 4y ago
>disallow foreign military aid Current hardware delivery aren't coming through during active hostilities. Unlike RU who doesn't have capabilities to deny vast UKR + EU land logistics, PRC can proactively deny air+maritime aroun
395.
by dirtyid 4y ago
PRC will not allow TW to be resupplied by west simply because legally that means foreign hardware operating on Chinese soil to support separatists during Chinese civil war. Optically that's a none starter. The likely outcome is PRC wil
396.
by dirtyid 4y ago
>pull off the most difficult military operation in the books (i.e., a contested amphibious landing into heavily defended shores) West keeps insisting on this outdated Normandy comparison with the PLA from the 60s, PLA WILL NOT be doing a
397.
by dirtyid 4y ago
Unlikely NKR would invade but theyve explicitly stated US intervention in TW especially from SKR could destablize and pop off drama on the peninsula. https://www.nknews.org/2021/10/reckless-interference-in-taiw...
398.
by dirtyid 4y ago
PRC/TW conflict already legally ongoing civil war. PRC a2d2 extends all the way to guam, west tw shore trivially deniable from even mainland, not that there's major ports/landing options or that mountains and limited connecti
399.
by dirtyid 4y ago
Historically sieges also tend work if conditions become existential, which it will if TW is denied energy and food imports which doesn't even touch on effects of taking out electricity or water infra. UKR can be resupplied via ample la
400.
by dirtyid 4y ago
PRC civilian (RO/RO) fleet used to augment landing is enough to bring 7 full Group Armies (300K+ troops) & their equipment in about 10 days. Go look at Shugarts estimates which is incomplete undercount while PRC increased auto expo
401.
by dirtyid 4y ago
You're asserting feel good propaganda fantasy talking points, but no credible analysts see path to unconditional UKR victory and if history any judge, some sort of settlement where UKR likely end up as broken buffer state carved with b
402.
by dirtyid 4y ago
>unconditional victory Doubt. UKR doing ok on battlefield but strategically it will be a dead country for generations. Vast unrecoverable levels of human capita loss, most of whom will never go back. UKR is going to be demographic deaden
403.
by dirtyid 4y ago
City builders experience leans too much towards god mode that closely resembles creators vision rather than the compromised mess that actual urban planning is. A proper city building experience would lead to a haphazard landscape where you
404.
by dirtyid 4y ago
The opposite, HK broke the promise it made to PRC by dragging out implementation of NSL that was always in PRC legal perview to unilaterally implement. The reality is PRC demonstrated stupid patience by letting the HK, the spyhub of Asian o
405.
by dirtyid 4y ago
Because historically nukes haven't deterred PRC who fought / skirmished / confronted with every nuclear state, USSR (border), USA (Korea), UK (HK threats), India (skirmishes), France (proxy in Vietnam), a few of those even wh
406.
by dirtyid 4y ago
Analysis goes full stupid when it comes to PRC policies / decision making. Seemed exceedingly rational that something as infectious as omicron was all or nothing containment affair. Just like western mRNA wank despite mRNA failing to p
407.
by dirtyid 4y ago
Well first, match context, there's neighbouring countries and regional countries. Countries neighbouring PRC, i.e. land connected are just as friendly towards PRC, and by friendly I mean relatively geopolitically aligned because PRC se
408.
by dirtyid 4y ago
>incredibly short sighted It's incredibly pragmatic, Chinese system was shit show in the 80s-10s going after easy gains while building up onerous contradictions. A lot of toes needed to be stepped on to do something as basic as mili
409.
by dirtyid 4y ago
CCPs been stemming outflows for past decade, this is just another push, probably triggered by post covid flight from folks who want out and CCP being hooked on big drop in flight throughout covid. Capital flight was ~4T between 05s-15s when
410.
by dirtyid 4y ago
It was clear for 2.5/3 years that covid0 was defensible as it enabled most of PRC to operate with relatively little disruption, wasn't until after omicron that the system became unsustainable. Persisting for another few months _ w
411.
by dirtyid 4y ago
Glad Dan decided to keep writing these these letters. >I acknowledge that my views may be too colored by the resentments of Shanghainese around me; and that I might be wrongfooted in my assessments. And despite being one of the better wr
412.
by dirtyid 4y ago
Part of me wonder if Loblaws is reason Trader Joes never tried to move to Canada, one of the few US chains most Canadians I know want locally.
413.
by dirtyid 4y ago
Which assumes US has a favourable hand to escalate since non of the posture improvements for US are due until after 2030s assuming PRC doesn't keep closing gap. Meanwhile these reciprical activities will likely continue because I surmi
414.
by dirtyid 4y ago
IMO why PRC/RU going for glide hypersonics instead of ballistic. PRC's primary concern with spacex is hogging all the orbital slots.
415.
by dirtyid 4y ago
Im a bot trained on us and chinese military documents, i contain multitudes. But TBH my grammar to lax to be bot. Anyway they're entry level acronyms for anyone following defense. pla peoples liberation army usn us navy scs south china
416.
by dirtyid 4y ago
PLA use USN activities in SCS and recon off her shores for training as well but US activities persist because there's mutual intelligence gathering going on, usually favouring the gatherer since the trade is info on one ISR platform vs
417.
by dirtyid 4y ago
Counter space unlikely, but there's no international treaty stipulating where air space ends except fl600, US shooting down PRC assets at fl600+1ft gives PRC openning to mess with US intel gathering in PRC EEZ where at least internatio
418.
by dirtyid 4y ago
US already overflies what PRC considers to be her territory, if anything this is PRC retaliating in kind - state media had clip in 2020 of shooting down foreign ballon that landed in mainland but simply didnt make a big fuss over it. It&#x2
419.
by dirtyid 4y ago
Even if eventually technically feasible, imo it will take multi decades to acquire finish program and acqure platforms in sufficient numbers. Missiles feasible short term because there's airframes and stockpiles. It's a function o
420.
by dirtyid 4y ago
US seems invested in interceding in PRC-TW scenario, nuclear deterent will set ceiling of escalation but conventional deterrent raises floor of US particapation. PRC needs credible conventional CONUS vunerability to deter US conventional in

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