3 ms·
You're asserting feel good propaganda fantasy talking points, but no credible analysts see path to unconditional UKR victory and if history any judge, some sort
by dirtyid 4y ago
You're asserting feel good propaganda fantasy talking points, but no credible analysts see path to unconditional UKR victory and if history any judge, some sort of settlement where UKR likely end up as broken buffer state carved with balamced RU geopolitical interests in mind, i.e. territorial loss with some parts of west UKR having chance of EU integration. So far UKR maybe overperforming operationally (battle layer) but doesnt mean it's winning strategically. RU can afford to keep UKR as a prolonged frozen conflict, preventing UKR reconstruction and keeping her as broken buffer state which is still net strategic win for RU position, granted a pyrrhic one. UKR demographic loss alone makes future incredibly bleak, country HDI was shit before war for region while UKR refugees had unusual priveledge of settling in developing countries - most already said they have no plan to return. UKR will be stuck in demographic/conflict limbo for generations and there likely won't be any peaceful settlement conditions where it can rebuild without RU cooperation. TW lesson will be she can fight to prevent occupation but exist as a greatly reduced society i.e. not high income semi producers but low income pine apple farmers. And they may well still choose the latter.