Yeah, fair points. You could imagine trying: (1) Ask "Will Google+ institute a real name policy by X date"? [This may not be useful to know.] (2) Ask "How man

Yeah, fair points. You could imagine trying: (1) Ask "Will Google+ institute a real name policy by X date"? [This may not be useful to know.] (2) Ask "How many users will Google+ have on X date with a real name policy?" and "How many without?" [Potentially powerful, to the extent that they're accurate and decision makers trust them.] (3) Ask "What will the app rating of Google+ be on date X?" [Prices in all factors, so can perhaps reveal the effect of policy changes before they happen.] I don't see prediction markets replacing OKRs or strategy planning, but rather complementing them, kind of like A/B tests and user studies. There's still a lot to figure out!