WildParser

8 ms·

31.
by WildParser 6y ago
I think the most important parameter about color is the GrayScale. GrayScale = 0.299 * R + 0.587 * G + 0.114 * B Whenever I need a color-space I make sure to use Grayscale as an axis. This gives me an easy way to get "the same, but in
32.
by WildParser 6y ago
It would be interesting to see the numbers for bioplastics like PLA. Growing starch-crops without fertilizers is probably the hard part. With these kind of bricks it would at least not be so difficult to motivate people to find appropriate
33.
by WildParser 6y ago
Instead of coal. Wouldn't plastics be a better storage material? -> Lego pyramid
34.
by WildParser 6y ago
Yes, the system doesn't work. When Usenet died it got replaced by forums and the old trolls got granted admin rights. The non-sane people that have a lot of time to post all day end up with the highest reputation and privileges. On the
35.
by WildParser 6y ago
The mathematics of COVID-19 is not that hard - and has been known since pretty much the beginning. No need for hatred and personal attacks.. Lets do some real mathematics. 1) Get good data (e.g. death by date). 2) Take a look at the Logarit
36.
by WildParser 6y ago
I just looked at the data for Sweden today. Looks like a seasonal outbreak starting mid-September (infection date). Parameters of the curve look like the first wave (Gompertz-Exponent ~0,06) with less force. Start is hidden under other smal
37.
by WildParser 6y ago
And meanwhile some people actually took the time to look at the statistics. A lot of countries with lockdowns had more trouble than countries without lockdowns. e.g. Argentinia with masks and lockdowns has one of the worst curves of the pla
38.
by WildParser 6y ago
~2 years ago. Navigation of rental cars worked best with phone numbers. Some cab drivers also preferred phone numbers. Most likely some service to lookup phone-number->GPS became popular - I haven't seen this outside Japan so far.
39.
by WildParser 6y ago
My impression in Japan was that people use phone numbers to identify destinations. Translating phone-numbers into GPS-coordinates seemed to be common.
40.
by WildParser 6y ago
If you look closely the mathematics is all Gompertz-Functions. Big expansion in small groups, burning locally too fast to maintain a continuous exponential fire. This results in seasonal dynamics just like a corona-virus. Usually if you loo
41.
by WildParser 6y ago
Hm. For a seasonal virus what would the definition of "diminishing" be?
42.
by WildParser 6y ago
Yeah, the mathematics around herd immunity are often misused. People seem to always assume independent identical random variables. Corona Virus are seasonal - infections highly locally clustered. The spreading might refuse to follow slow br
43.
by WildParser 6y ago
Me too, but he refused to explain. I think there must have been a time where choosing a side was able to end friendships.
44.
by WildParser 6y ago
My professor for statistics (he was quite famous in the field) talked about Monty Hall, but made clear that he will not give a solution because of science-political reasons.
45.
by WildParser 6y ago
Yes, the conclusions here are most likely intuitively correct, but the science is missing. One missing piece of the puzzle is probably the grayscale. GrayScale = 0.299 * R + 0.587 * G + 0.114 * B Grayscale tells you if the color is for fore
46.
by WildParser 6y ago
The author missed that the whole narrative around herd immunity is based on very very weak papers. The growth dynamics of COVID-19 is following very precise mathematics. Like any seasonal virus it starts strong - and trickles down slowly.
47.
by WildParser 6y ago
Not all people are going to get infected. One result of the Heinsberg study in Germany was that living together with an infected person only resulted in ~43% chance of infection. With more people living together the chance even went down to
48.
by WildParser 6y ago
Currently in Germany it maybe works the other way around. Last month around me it worked like this: Big spikes in case were caused by a test-campaign around somebody who died (or was ill). So a trend in case might in fact be an old trend o
49.
by WildParser 6y ago
R² > 0,995 If you subtract the trend of the first outbreak from the main trend it's R²>0,995 from the beginning down the point where old people started to wear masks and go to church. Here things get worse - as expected. New tren
50.
by WildParser 6y ago
From infection date ~29.February till May the growthrate in Germany is behaving mathematically exact - following a Gompertz-Model. It's not really clear if actions and visible behaviour changes did much - all of them came way too late
51.
by WildParser 6y ago
And they are ignoring scientists that have already found models that actually work. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aHrx68IT7o https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10157283645163015
52.
by WildParser 6y ago
Feel free to take a look at the official data yourself. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-tod... You need nothing but Excel/LibreOffice and a few simple formulas to get this picture. Ge
53.
by WildParser 6y ago
Have you noticed that the curves are following Gompertz-Model? https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10157283645163015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aHrx68IT7o There is no constant CV>1 - it all dep
54.
by WildParser 6y ago
Maybe, I'm not really a polite person. I think using a working formula for f would greatly help to evaluate the consequences of actions and helps to detect outbreaks early. In my area they made masks mandatory and cut down the protecti
55.
by WildParser 6y ago
Yes, it's important to go down exponentially - which exactly is the thing it is doing - not just in one place... Good luck that most countries on the planet have already passed the inflection point, so finding the saturation point isn&
56.
by WildParser 6y ago
And I still politely ask you to just look at the data. There is nothing in the data that points to "somehow" and "maybe". It is just a straight linear line in the logscale. You may see some wobble caused by outbreaks her
57.
by WildParser 6y ago
It falls down exponentially! Just look at it. If you do a bit of math you will see that f will just converge.
58.
by WildParser 6y ago
Exactly. Things with R0 < 1 will fizzle. Herd immunity is 0. Little mathematical exercise. For Massachusetts: a) Take the number of deaths per day, divide it by the total number of deaths. f'/f. b) Take a look at this in a log
59.
by WildParser 6y ago
As far as I have seen, currently people don't use masks for close contact talking situations (family, friends, work, chatting...). With mask usage in Germany I see only negative trends in the growthrate of both case and death. I think
60.
by WildParser 6y ago
I don't have much, but maybe this contains a hint on the effects of mask usage on the German death growthrate. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10157238440973015 (Masks about 25.4 - the effect should be visible

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