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Not all people are going to get infected. One result of the Heinsberg study in Germany was that living together with an infected person only resulted in ~43% ch

Not all people are going to get infected. One result of the Heinsberg study in Germany was that living together with an infected person only resulted in ~43% chance of infection. With more people living together the chance even went down to 18%. Also the numbers of Covid-19 are mainly following a Gompertz model - like a seasonal virus that starts big and then fizzles. The high R-Values people talked about in the beginning aren't a real thing. Michael Levitt in the beginning already calculated the outbreak in China perfectly. He made good Videos to explain the basic math. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCgPf1SuPNY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCgPf1SuPNY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uw2ZTaiN97k https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uw2ZTaiN97k https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aHrx68IT7o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aHrx68IT7o Maybe take a look at some f'/f in a logchart... It's easy to do - just look at death per day/total. Some countries are easy to model (e.g. Germany) - US is difficult with policies and outbreaks coming from different sides, ... - but some states are not that difficult to understand)

DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
> One result of the Heinsberg study in Germany was that living together with an infected person only resulted in ~43% chance of infection. If you're living in an area where the virus is circulating, you are likely to eventually be exposed many times. Getting lucky once is not enough. > like a seasonal virus that starts big and then fizzles. The high R-Values people talked about in the beginning aren't a real thing. They're absolutely real. Seasonal viruses come back every year, so if this is like the flu, then we have to worry about another major wave in the fall. Epidemics can slow down for two reasons: * Increasing immunity. Herd immunity is a long way off in most places in the world. Even places that had some of the worst outbreaks, like NY city, have only had ~20% infection rates. * People change their behavior, causing R to decrease. Social distancing, mask-wearing, enforced lockdowns, quarantining of infected people, quarantining of exposed people - these can all lead to slower spread of the virus. > Michael Levitt in the beginning already calculated the outbreak in China perfectly. The epidemic was suppressed in China through a massive government and societal response. It would have been far worse if there had been no reaction. Because of the reaction, most of the country was spared the experience that Wuhan had. If all containment measures were to end today, the epidemic would flare up again and millions of people would die over the next several months. The only way to permanently dampen the outbreak is to achieve a high level of immunity. That can either be through a vaccine, in which case almost nobody will die, or it can be through herd immunity, in which case many millions of people will die worldwide.
- anoncake 6y ago
  > If you're living in an area where the virus is circulating, you are likely to eventually be exposed many times. Getting lucky once is not enough. It's not about how often you're exposed to the virus but about how long and how intensely. Living with someone is pretty much the worst case.

DiogenesKynikos 6y ago

> One result of the Heinsberg study in Germany was that living together with an infected person only resulted in ~43% chance of infection. If you're living in an area where the virus is circulating, you are likely to eventually be exposed many times. Getting lucky once is not enough. > like a seasonal virus that starts big and then fizzles. The high R-Values people talked about in the beginning aren't a real thing. They're absolutely real. Seasonal viruses come back every year, so if this is like the flu, then we have to worry about another major wave in the fall. Epidemics can slow down for two reasons: * Increasing immunity. Herd immunity is a long way off in most places in the world. Even places that had some of the worst outbreaks, like NY city, have only had ~20% infection rates. * People change their behavior, causing R to decrease. Social distancing, mask-wearing, enforced lockdowns, quarantining of infected people, quarantining of exposed people - these can all lead to slower spread of the virus. > Michael Levitt in the beginning already calculated the outbreak in China perfectly. The epidemic was suppressed in China through a massive government and societal response. It would have been far worse if there had been no reaction. Because of the reaction, most of the country was spared the experience that Wuhan had. If all containment measures were to end today, the epidemic would flare up again and millions of people would die over the next several months. The only way to permanently dampen the outbreak is to achieve a high level of immunity. That can either be through a vaccine, in which case almost nobody will die, or it can be through herd immunity, in which case many millions of people will die worldwide.

anoncake 6y ago
> If you're living in an area where the virus is circulating, you are likely to eventually be exposed many times. Getting lucky once is not enough. It's not about how often you're exposed to the virus but about how long and how intensely. Living with someone is pretty much the worst case.