5 ms·

Have you noticed that the curves are following Gompertz-Model? https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10157283645163015 https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbi

Have you noticed that the curves are following Gompertz-Model? https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10157283645163015 https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10157283645163015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aHrx68IT7o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aHrx68IT7o There is no constant CV>1 - it all depends on the situation.

acqq 6y ago
I simply can't imagine that anybody who even basically understands the related topics could believe the facebook post you posted (I'm referring to the graph). If I'm wrong and they do exist I'm very, very sad, and even scared imagining having to deal with such people. Also update from yesterday: in Germany's plant today's score is "more than 1500" https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8450221/1-500-workers-test-positive-coronavirus-German-meat-factory.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8450221/1-500-worke...
- WildParser 6y ago
  Feel free to take a look at the official data yourself. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-tod... You need nothing but Excel/LibreOffice and a few simple formulas to get this picture. Germany has a heavy 7 day rhythm, because they're doing their reporting in a very strange way. Using 7 day averages helps a lot to get rid of the reporting-noise. You need: Daily death (averages over 7 days) Total death (Sum) (averages over 7 days) daily/total Just use SUM() and /
  - acqq 6y ago
    I don't doubt that one can produce the picture. The problem is that these drawn lines over the real data don't mean anything. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rorschach_test https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rorschach_test
    - WildParser 6y ago
      R² > 0,995 If you subtract the trend of the first outbreak from the main trend it's R²>0,995 from the beginning down the point where old people started to wear masks and go to church. Here things get worse - as expected. New trend is still collapsing exponentially - numbers now are so low that the curve has reporting issues (national deathcount on Sunday was -1).
      - acqq 6y ago
        The Saturday and Sunday are the "weird" death data in most of the countries, and not because people die less on these days, but because not all those that report the deaths do that on these days: even in hospitals in the middle of epidemics some people in administration simply don't work on weekends. So what I see for Germany is the number of detected cases increased the last week, therefore I expect in 2-4 weeks the increase of deaths in Germany, that's how much the delay is between more cases and more deaths. I don't see anything else that is a realistic "signal" about anything.
        WildParser 6y ago
        Currently in Germany it maybe works the other way around. Last month around me it worked like this: Big spikes in case were caused by a test-campaign around somebody who died (or was ill). So a trend in case might in fact be an old trend of death - and the burst in case might in fact be asymptomatic or mild cases not leading to any death. When you try to fit the spikes of death and case things are strange. In Germany maybe case and death have completely detached from each other. Currently there are a lot of corrections going on. Bavaria had a deathcount of -3 on Saturday. Maybe they are piling up to report a big spike soon, or they stopped someone from reporting nonsense? We will see...

acqq 6y ago

I simply can't imagine that anybody who even basically understands the related topics could believe the facebook post you posted (I'm referring to the graph). If I'm wrong and they do exist I'm very, very sad, and even scared imagining having to deal with such people. Also update from yesterday: in Germany's plant today's score is "more than 1500" https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8450221/1-500-workers-test-positive-coronavirus-German-meat-factory.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8450221/1-500-worke...

WildParser 6y ago
Feel free to take a look at the official data yourself. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-tod... You need nothing but Excel/LibreOffice and a few simple formulas to get this picture. Germany has a heavy 7 day rhythm, because they're doing their reporting in a very strange way. Using 7 day averages helps a lot to get rid of the reporting-noise. You need: Daily death (averages over 7 days) Total death (Sum) (averages over 7 days) daily/total Just use SUM() and /
- acqq 6y ago
  I don't doubt that one can produce the picture. The problem is that these drawn lines over the real data don't mean anything. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rorschach_test https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rorschach_test
  - WildParser 6y ago
    R² > 0,995 If you subtract the trend of the first outbreak from the main trend it's R²>0,995 from the beginning down the point where old people started to wear masks and go to church. Here things get worse - as expected. New trend is still collapsing exponentially - numbers now are so low that the curve has reporting issues (national deathcount on Sunday was -1).
    - acqq 6y ago
      The Saturday and Sunday are the "weird" death data in most of the countries, and not because people die less on these days, but because not all those that report the deaths do that on these days: even in hospitals in the middle of epidemics some people in administration simply don't work on weekends. So what I see for Germany is the number of detected cases increased the last week, therefore I expect in 2-4 weeks the increase of deaths in Germany, that's how much the delay is between more cases and more deaths. I don't see anything else that is a realistic "signal" about anything.
      - WildParser 6y ago
        Currently in Germany it maybe works the other way around. Last month around me it worked like this: Big spikes in case were caused by a test-campaign around somebody who died (or was ill). So a trend in case might in fact be an old trend of death - and the burst in case might in fact be asymptomatic or mild cases not leading to any death. When you try to fit the spikes of death and case things are strange. In Germany maybe case and death have completely detached from each other. Currently there are a lot of corrections going on. Bavaria had a deathcount of -3 on Saturday. Maybe they are piling up to report a big spike soon, or they stopped someone from reporting nonsense? We will see...