WildParser

5 ms·

61.
by WildParser 6y ago
With local superspreading-events you can get an outbreak without needing R0 > 1. There can be fire without the world burning down. Levitts math works extremely good - you can calculate the entire German death-curve perfectly. In fact the
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by WildParser 6y ago
Btw. The statistics to calculate herd immunity to 60-90% were extremely flawed. They used numbers that came right out of superspreader-events. The most likely thing for COVID-19 is, that it has R0 < 1. It will spread by using a series of
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by WildParser 6y ago
In the Gompertz-Model (that worked perfectly for China) Sweden is converging to R~0,8 - with a total death-count <6000. Germany is going to R~0,7 / <9000. Given the explosive dynamics of COVID-19 that soon converges to R<1 goi
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by WildParser 6y ago
Yes, indeed. When you talk to an epidemiologist (e.g. a doctor of physics), ask him to look at f'/f (death per day/death total) in a log-chart they'll tell you that it is 'useless' to look. If you show him a st
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by WildParser 6y ago
Michael Levitt has already shown the world a long time ago that COVID-19 is sub-exponential. Any competent mathematician can do that, just look at f'/f in a logchart (death per day / death total) look at the data of Germany -
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by WildParser 9y ago
I've made the mistake to write a complex project in Free Pascal. As far as I can tell pretty much every release of Lazarus is breaking something. And surprisingly often those breaks are major (like e.g. broken multi-threading, broken-s