Gatsky

59 ms·

811.
by Gatsky 7y ago
Clinical trials are difficult. But when you consider they are a method to reliably generate new knowledge about complex systems (ie. humans) it doesn’t seem so bad. Actually they are remarkably efficient knowledge generators, compared to ot
812.
by Gatsky 7y ago
I’m not sure what your point is. Ultimately you need to demonstrate a vaccine is safe and efficacious for the real disease. An attenuated strain isn’t the real disease.
813.
by Gatsky 7y ago
I hope the reason is that Indians are intrinsically resistant to SARS-CoV-2, that would be a big relief.
814.
by Gatsky 7y ago
Yes although antibodies aren’t the only mechanism. I’m not worried about post-vaccine enhancement with the attenuated strain, I’m worried that you can’t reliably demonstrate the vaccine doesn’t cause enhancement after the real infection.
815.
by Gatsky 7y ago
Not sure this helps us much. The problem is augmentation. A vaccine could take a healthy young person who would have had an asymptomatic infection, and change that into severe disease. Infecting them with an attenuated strain doesn't g
816.
by Gatsky 7y ago
So this error was in the code that actually ran the experiment, not the analysis. The experiment was effectively doomed from the beginning. The mistake amounts to failing to calibrate and test your experimental apparatus, which is a little
817.
by Gatsky 7y ago
Maybe there will be a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2, but the one lesson to take away from all this is that if a truly terrible pandemic hits (eg more contagious than SARS-CoV-2 but with a 10%+ mortality rate) a vaccine won’t save us. I’m not sure
818.
by Gatsky 7y ago
Although satisfying, this isn’t a good idea, they have your number and are capable of asymmetrical warfare eg spoofing your number for the next 10000 scam calls they make.
819.
by Gatsky 7y ago
There is no doubt that quitting smoking or nicotine products is incredible difficult for some people. The worst thing about nicotine is how it alters reality so much. It’s like a science fiction mind control nightmare. From the outside I se
820.
by Gatsky 7y ago
I guess Facebook has done some calculation about the potential fines/time sitting in congressional hearings in the aftermath of this versus revenue. I think it is strange to criticise this move as suppressing free speech. If you value
821.
by Gatsky 7y ago
Now things are starting to settle down, everyone can get back to being their usual selves, whether it is a totalatarian surveillance state or a conspiracy theorist.
822.
by Gatsky 7y ago
I wrote the comment below over a year ago, about how these popsci books are very unreliable sources of knowledge because of the perverse incentive structure (eg would this book have been written if the conclusion was 'we don't kno
823.
by Gatsky 7y ago
This ‘dilemma’ shows with great clarity that the current economic system is dysfunctional, fragile and ultimately inhumane.
824.
Ask HN: What is the effect of Covid-19 on HN’s traffic?
2 points by Gatsky 7y ago|0 comments
825.
by Gatsky 7y ago
I think SEO mainly affects content which was already very low quality. Recipe blogs are a prime example - this is the worst way to get recipes. It is inferior to books and apps (which are more use in the kitchen), is poorly indexed, ephemer
826.
by Gatsky 7y ago
Yes exactly. Perhaps the pandemic will change this, but probably not.
827.
by Gatsky 7y ago
I haven’t read it, but I presume this is about time dilation during a test match.
828.
by Gatsky 7y ago
The technical proficiency on display here makes me swoon.
829.
by Gatsky 7y ago
Sometimes I wonder if we are the critters related to the second question. Of course the next question is how far away are we from meeting the simulation’s spec.
830.
by Gatsky 7y ago
This mask thing is a strange phenomenon. I suppose it is similar to panic buying toilet paper - people just feel the need to do something and blame someone. In Australia, although there has been panic buying of toilet paper, nobody is talki
831.
by Gatsky 7y ago
Looks like the gender disparity in mortality is not being taken into account. The excess risk for men is probably double what he estimates. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/men-are-much-m...
832.
by Gatsky 7y ago
The problem is a global lack of preparation for a pandemic of this nature, despite multiple warning shots in the last couple of decades. The problem is incompetent, complacent government, and the political processes which enable it, and lat
833.
by Gatsky 7y ago
I don’t think there is anything special about Italy, they just started earlier than other countries (1st cases were 3 weeks before other Euro countries) and in some provinces didn’t take it seriously.
834.
by Gatsky 7y ago
No direct evidence. But any reasonable parameters for the viral reproductive number and mortality, along with clear evidence of asymptomatic carriage, lead to this inevitable conclusion.
835.
by Gatsky 7y ago
The case fatality is <1%, Italy just has a lot of people infected with SARS-CoV-2. There must be over a million cases in Italy, they just aren’t able to test everyone. The age distribution is similar in South Korea. As bad as Italy is, I
836.
by Gatsky 7y ago
The room temperature catalyst data looks pretty promising. Not sure of the feasibility of building out huge electrocatalytic CO2 scrubbing capacity, or if there is enough gallium in the world to actually do this.
837.
by Gatsky 7y ago
The opportunity today to do great work is seemingly better than at any other time in history (internet, number of people interested in a field, absence of war/famine) so it does feel like we are stagnant despite having many great tools
838.
by Gatsky 7y ago
Part of it is also the research workforce composition. Research students are increasingly people without other good options or who feel like they need to do it for status reasons. It is a form of low paid labour that they take in preference
839.
by Gatsky 7y ago
This is hilarious. Will they also buy their own intensive care doctor to intubate them?
840.
by Gatsky 7y ago
If you do nothing, and an antiviral comes along in a month (which can stop severe disease), then you have effectively killed a lot of people unnecessarily. An affective antiviral is looking more and more likely, and unlike other approaches,

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