8 ms·

Could The Ebola Outbreak Spread To Europe Or The U.S.?

85 points by timr 12y ago

joe_the_user 12y ago
I usually hate mentioning it, but this seems a perfect example of Betteridge's law. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines
- rjsw 12y ago
  Maybe. One danger that isn't mentioned in the article is that Ebola is suspected of being carried by animals, fruit bats in particular. Lots of bushmeat gets smuggled into Europe.
  - pyre 12y ago
    > Lots of bushmeat gets smuggled into Europe. As a delicacy (i.e. people looking for Chimpanzee meat)? Or to serve African immigrant populations (looking to bring home to a foreign land)?
    - DanBC 12y ago
      It used to be for personal consumption but now there is a "luxury market" and illegal meat is being traded. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/jun/18/illegal-bushmeat-smuggled-europe http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/jun/18/illegal-b...
giarc 12y ago
The largest driver of this outbreak (and many ebola outbreaks) is the fear of healthcare and the way many cultures treat the deceased. These two issues are what would make transmission to NA or Europe very unlikely. Many people in African nations will stay away from hospitals because they believe they will get Ebola from the hospital. Therefore often people that are sick die of Ebola in the community and therefore spread the disease (symptoms of ebola are very similar to malaria in the first stages, and therefore does not always draw attention to people familiar with malaria) Secondly, when people die in many of these cultures, there is much more physical connection with the body, potentially spreading the disease more. In NA and Europe, people are much more likely to seek care and we also don't have as much contact with deceased person (and also have guidelines for handling of infectious bodies).
- worldvoyageur 12y ago
  Fear of healthcare might actually not be a bad way to reduce the risk of getting ebola as the easiest way to get it is as a result of poor hospital procedure. Here is a snippet from a moving article about a young microbiologist who investigated the first Ebola outbreak. " It quickly became clear that something was wrong at the hospital. Epidemiological detective work by our team confirmed the suspicions: people were being infected at the hospital through injections made using contaminated needles and syringes (only five syringes and needles were issued to the nurses each morning), and hospital staff and attendees at funerals were falling victim through exposure to body fluids infected with the virus. In addition there seemed to be transmission from mothers to babies. " The full article is a moving and rewarding read: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/4c1711c2-d004-11e3-a2b7-00144feabdc0.html#axzz36XHDkoYz http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/4c1711c2-d004-11e3-a2b7-00144... As a tragic aside, it is the same poor hospital procedure that gave so many Africans AIDS back in the day. Sexual transmission is now the main vector, but it wasn't always the case.
  - rwissmann 12y ago
    The problem regards people who already have Ebola. Of course, if you have just a less severe condition, staying a way form a hospital might during an epidemic might be a reasonable move. Treating those with Ebola at home is a recipe for catastrophe. Contrary to AIDS, Ebola is highly contagious and often leads to the infection of the whole family and visitors. So no, fear of healthcare is just about the worst possible mindset for those infected with Ebola and their families.
    - giarc 12y ago
      I agree with you. The first outbreak of Ebola was obviously handled incorrectly (5 needles per nurses) and may have been due to the unknown severity of the disease. Now each outbreak is handled by multiple agencies (WHO, Doctors without borders etc) and therefore the hospital is likely given access to proper infection control supplies. This is my conjecture, but likely a safe one.
- sliverstorm 12y ago
KhalilK 12y ago
So should Europe and the U.S. begin worrying about the virus? As a North African inhabitant (Tunisia), I can't help but consider this egocentric. Are other African countries somehow doomed?
- claudius 12y ago
  It seems rather egocentric to expect US national radio to serve Africa?
  - deleted 12y ago
    [deleted]
- privong 12y ago
  Well, NPR is an American organization, so it's not really surprising that they're writing it with an eye towards their primary demographic (Americans, and to a lesser extent, Europeans) . > Are other African countries somehow doomed? It would certainly be interesting to look at the likelihood of propagation in Africa, and hopefully someone does that. But I'd be surprised to see that from a news organization with a primarily American audience. Also, I didn't see anything in the article implying anything about further spread in Africa.
  - KhalilK 12y ago
    That last question was merely sarcastic and based on my understanding of the article; discussing potential spread to the US/Europe suggests that the virus has already spread in Africa, at least that's how I saw it.
    - privong 12y ago
      I figured you were being sarcastic. But I do think it would actually be interesting for someone to look into propagation within Africa.
  - deleted 12y ago
    [deleted]
KaiserPro 12y ago
Yes. But there are a few caveats. First, does ebola have environmental factors? What are the vectors for transmission? Are parts of the rest of the world immune/partially immune already? THe problem is that remote africa is very hard to look after, however fortunately for the surrounding areas movement of people is slow and fairly easy to trace. If it were to hit a town in say nigeria, then its pretty much game over. Country wide quarantines. Stopping of shipping and all movements across borders.
batmansbelt 12y ago
Probably not. You'd need a vector. I saw a documentary about an outbreak in the 90s and it was a monkey that a man let loose in the forest.
- Fomite 12y ago
  An infected human is a perfectly functional vector, and this is already a sustained epidemic.
- MrCedarCreek 12y ago
  Her name's Betsy.
nickthemagicman 12y ago
The burn rate is too fast for Ebola plus Ebola isn't transmitted via air(yet) so even if it did contaminate America or Europe it could be contained rather easily.
- Fomite 12y ago
  The notion that "the burn rate" is too fast is both on epidemiologically shaky ground, and something I'd be disinclined to rely on given "the burn rate is too fast" was supposed to be why we hadn't seen Ebola in places now experiencing outbreaks.
  - kordless 12y ago
    Aparently, so is the air part: http://healthmap.org/site/diseasedaily/article/pigs-monkeys-ebola-goes-airborne-112112 http://healthmap.org/site/diseasedaily/article/pigs-monkeys-.... I was fascinated by its structure - a filament - and it's small size of code - only about 20K base pairs. Also, it's mutation rate is pretty high. That sucks.
    - nickthemagicman 12y ago
      Notice I put yet in parenthesis. Google: Reston ebola virus, or just read the hot zone. You want stuff to be afraid of look up: drug resistant tuberculosis, or the scientist Yoshihiro Kawaoka.
Asparagirl 12y ago
Last month, an American doctor who is working with Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières/MSF) wrote these really harrowing and sad letters home from the heart of the Ebola outbreak: http://news.unchealthcare.org/news/2014/june/dispatch-from-guinea-containing-ebola http://news.unchealthcare.org/news/2014/june/dispatch-from-g...
- Ocerge 12y ago
  That was an absolutely terrifying read. What seems to make Ebola worse is the manner in which you die...bleeding out on the floor, alone. Doctors Without Borders is an incredible organization, and one that I gladly donate to yearly.
  - frozenport 12y ago
    They are not without criticism, in Rawanda they might have supported the wrong side, supporting a group of refuges that would be the imperious for an invasion of Zaire, the destabilization of which has lead to continuous conflict in the Congo. As Alain Destexhe, the secretary-general of Doctors Without Borders, put it: "How can physicians continue to assist Rwandan refugees when by doing so they are also supporting killers?"[1] [1]Dancing in the Glory of Monsters: The Collapse of the Congo and the Great War of Africa Paperback – March 27, 2012
- tritium 12y ago
  The hygienists listen to music although this week they've been on a Celine Dione kick which requires its own coping strategy. Ebola and Celine Dion? Christ. No one should ever have to go through that.
quattrofan 12y ago
What is the likelihood ebola could mutate into something that could be spread by aerosol?
bayesianhorse 12y ago
Ebola is a third-world disease. First world countries are not at risk, due to a combination of health-care, hygiene and "lucky" cultural differences. SARS is much more of a first-world disease because it spreads faster, more easily and has less visible symptoms. Europe and US should still try everything possible to stop Ebola. And Malaria, and Tuberculosis and all the various parasites that are affecting mostly the poor people of the world....

85 points by timr 12y ago

I usually hate mentioning it, but this seems a perfect example of Betteridge's law. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines

rjsw 12y ago
Maybe. One danger that isn't mentioned in the article is that Ebola is suspected of being carried by animals, fruit bats in particular. Lots of bushmeat gets smuggled into Europe.
- pyre 12y ago
  > Lots of bushmeat gets smuggled into Europe. As a delicacy (i.e. people looking for Chimpanzee meat)? Or to serve African immigrant populations (looking to bring home to a foreign land)?
  - DanBC 12y ago
    It used to be for personal consumption but now there is a "luxury market" and illegal meat is being traded. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/jun/18/illegal-bushmeat-smuggled-europe http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/jun/18/illegal-b...

giarc 12y ago

The largest driver of this outbreak (and many ebola outbreaks) is the fear of healthcare and the way many cultures treat the deceased. These two issues are what would make transmission to NA or Europe very unlikely. Many people in African nations will stay away from hospitals because they believe they will get Ebola from the hospital. Therefore often people that are sick die of Ebola in the community and therefore spread the disease (symptoms of ebola are very similar to malaria in the first stages, and therefore does not always draw attention to people familiar with malaria) Secondly, when people die in many of these cultures, there is much more physical connection with the body, potentially spreading the disease more. In NA and Europe, people are much more likely to seek care and we also don't have as much contact with deceased person (and also have guidelines for handling of infectious bodies).

worldvoyageur 12y ago
Fear of healthcare might actually not be a bad way to reduce the risk of getting ebola as the easiest way to get it is as a result of poor hospital procedure. Here is a snippet from a moving article about a young microbiologist who investigated the first Ebola outbreak. " It quickly became clear that something was wrong at the hospital. Epidemiological detective work by our team confirmed the suspicions: people were being infected at the hospital through injections made using contaminated needles and syringes (only five syringes and needles were issued to the nurses each morning), and hospital staff and attendees at funerals were falling victim through exposure to body fluids infected with the virus. In addition there seemed to be transmission from mothers to babies. " The full article is a moving and rewarding read: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/4c1711c2-d004-11e3-a2b7-00144feabdc0.html#axzz36XHDkoYz http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/4c1711c2-d004-11e3-a2b7-00144... As a tragic aside, it is the same poor hospital procedure that gave so many Africans AIDS back in the day. Sexual transmission is now the main vector, but it wasn't always the case.
- rwissmann 12y ago
  The problem regards people who already have Ebola. Of course, if you have just a less severe condition, staying a way form a hospital might during an epidemic might be a reasonable move. Treating those with Ebola at home is a recipe for catastrophe. Contrary to AIDS, Ebola is highly contagious and often leads to the infection of the whole family and visitors. So no, fear of healthcare is just about the worst possible mindset for those infected with Ebola and their families.
  - giarc 12y ago
    I agree with you. The first outbreak of Ebola was obviously handled incorrectly (5 needles per nurses) and may have been due to the unknown severity of the disease. Now each outbreak is handled by multiple agencies (WHO, Doctors without borders etc) and therefore the hospital is likely given access to proper infection control supplies. This is my conjecture, but likely a safe one.
sliverstorm 12y ago

KhalilK 12y ago

So should Europe and the U.S. begin worrying about the virus? As a North African inhabitant (Tunisia), I can't help but consider this egocentric. Are other African countries somehow doomed?

claudius 12y ago
It seems rather egocentric to expect US national radio to serve Africa?
- deleted 12y ago
  [deleted]
privong 12y ago
Well, NPR is an American organization, so it's not really surprising that they're writing it with an eye towards their primary demographic (Americans, and to a lesser extent, Europeans) . > Are other African countries somehow doomed? It would certainly be interesting to look at the likelihood of propagation in Africa, and hopefully someone does that. But I'd be surprised to see that from a news organization with a primarily American audience. Also, I didn't see anything in the article implying anything about further spread in Africa.
- KhalilK 12y ago
  That last question was merely sarcastic and based on my understanding of the article; discussing potential spread to the US/Europe suggests that the virus has already spread in Africa, at least that's how I saw it.
  - privong 12y ago
    I figured you were being sarcastic. But I do think it would actually be interesting for someone to look into propagation within Africa.
- deleted 12y ago
  [deleted]

KaiserPro 12y ago

Yes. But there are a few caveats. First, does ebola have environmental factors? What are the vectors for transmission? Are parts of the rest of the world immune/partially immune already? THe problem is that remote africa is very hard to look after, however fortunately for the surrounding areas movement of people is slow and fairly easy to trace. If it were to hit a town in say nigeria, then its pretty much game over. Country wide quarantines. Stopping of shipping and all movements across borders.

batmansbelt 12y ago

Probably not. You'd need a vector. I saw a documentary about an outbreak in the 90s and it was a monkey that a man let loose in the forest.

Fomite 12y ago
An infected human is a perfectly functional vector, and this is already a sustained epidemic.
MrCedarCreek 12y ago
Her name's Betsy.

nickthemagicman 12y ago

The burn rate is too fast for Ebola plus Ebola isn't transmitted via air(yet) so even if it did contaminate America or Europe it could be contained rather easily.

Fomite 12y ago
The notion that "the burn rate" is too fast is both on epidemiologically shaky ground, and something I'd be disinclined to rely on given "the burn rate is too fast" was supposed to be why we hadn't seen Ebola in places now experiencing outbreaks.
- kordless 12y ago
  Aparently, so is the air part: http://healthmap.org/site/diseasedaily/article/pigs-monkeys-ebola-goes-airborne-112112 http://healthmap.org/site/diseasedaily/article/pigs-monkeys-.... I was fascinated by its structure - a filament - and it's small size of code - only about 20K base pairs. Also, it's mutation rate is pretty high. That sucks.
  - nickthemagicman 12y ago
    Notice I put yet in parenthesis. Google: Reston ebola virus, or just read the hot zone. You want stuff to be afraid of look up: drug resistant tuberculosis, or the scientist Yoshihiro Kawaoka.

Asparagirl 12y ago

Last month, an American doctor who is working with Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières/MSF) wrote these really harrowing and sad letters home from the heart of the Ebola outbreak: http://news.unchealthcare.org/news/2014/june/dispatch-from-guinea-containing-ebola http://news.unchealthcare.org/news/2014/june/dispatch-from-g...

Ocerge 12y ago
That was an absolutely terrifying read. What seems to make Ebola worse is the manner in which you die...bleeding out on the floor, alone. Doctors Without Borders is an incredible organization, and one that I gladly donate to yearly.
- frozenport 12y ago
  They are not without criticism, in Rawanda they might have supported the wrong side, supporting a group of refuges that would be the imperious for an invasion of Zaire, the destabilization of which has lead to continuous conflict in the Congo. As Alain Destexhe, the secretary-general of Doctors Without Borders, put it: "How can physicians continue to assist Rwandan refugees when by doing so they are also supporting killers?"[1] [1]Dancing in the Glory of Monsters: The Collapse of the Congo and the Great War of Africa Paperback – March 27, 2012
tritium 12y ago
The hygienists listen to music although this week they've been on a Celine Dione kick which requires its own coping strategy. Ebola and Celine Dion? Christ. No one should ever have to go through that.

quattrofan 12y ago

What is the likelihood ebola could mutate into something that could be spread by aerosol?

bayesianhorse 12y ago

Ebola is a third-world disease. First world countries are not at risk, due to a combination of health-care, hygiene and "lucky" cultural differences. SARS is much more of a first-world disease because it spreads faster, more easily and has less visible symptoms. Europe and US should still try everything possible to stop Ebola. And Malaria, and Tuberculosis and all the various parasites that are affecting mostly the poor people of the world....