13 ms·

Stupid, Stupid xBox

338 points by cek 14y ago

WestCoastJustin 14y ago
After letting the article percolate for a bit. Just think about what the industry will look like in 10 years. - internet game distribution is going to change content delivery just like it changed VHF/DVD rental stores. The game stores will be gone, walmart will not display/sell them. - those who can provide a pipeline like netflix for games are going to destroy the current establishment. It will likely be worse than what netflix did, simply because the development of games is easy compared it TV/Movies. - the idea of xbox, playstation, wii might be gone. There might be a generic console with an online pipeline connected to it. Or maybe you will have a xbox, playstation, wii portal that will connect you to the pipeline just like what netflix does for movies? Maybe I'm just talking out my ass but it looks like things are going to massively change.
- natbro 14y ago
  The dawning horror for the console vendors is that the change is already happening around them and on every iPhone, iPad, Samsung, Android, etc device. These already have digital-only distribution. These already have very high-quality GPU's that push almost as many triangles as an xBox 360 or PS3, and are on a faster product-iteration-cycle. Some of these - iPad3 and Samsung Galaxy Tab's - already have higher-resolution screens than your 60" HDTV and many people are using them more hours per day and spending more dollars per device than they ever did on consoles. Yikes, if I were still in the console biz, I would push like hell to move a little faster than updating hardware every 7-8 years and doing poorly with software.
  - chokolad 14y ago
    well, xbox 360 kinda had digital distribution since it's launch.
  - Goronmon 14y ago
    The dawning horror for the console vendors is that the change is already happening around them and on every iPhone, iPad, Samsung, Android, etc device. These already have digital-only distribution. These already have very high-quality GPU's that push almost as many triangles as an xBox 360 or PS3, and are on a faster product-iteration-cycle. Some of these - iPad3 and Samsung Galaxy Tab's - already have higher-resolution screens than your 60" HDTV and many people are using them more hours per day You could argue a very similar point by replacing mobile devices with PC in your argument. But I console vendors don't look in horror in the PC market. You are also missing a fairly big aspect of a game console, the games themselves. many people are using them more hours per day and spending more dollars per device than they ever did on consoles Do you have a reference for this? Sounds interesting, but I haven't seen the comparison before.
- damian2000 14y ago
  Sounds like a SteamBox. http://au.ign.com/articles/2013/01/18/the-promise-and-potential-pitfalls-of-valves-steam-box http://au.ign.com/articles/2013/01/18/the-promise-and-potent...
Kronopath 14y ago
This is a very revealing article: - It gives official confirmation of the (somewhat obvious) idea that the XBox was a defensive move against general living-room entertainment boxes. - It shows that he has a very distorted view of the gaming landscape, if the truly thinks that the XBox is the dominant platform, or that mobile games are a genuine threat to console gaming (they most certainly are not). - He singles out Apple of all companies, as the biggest threat to mobile gaming, despite the fact that Apple doesn't seem to be too interested in anything other than simple 99¢ iOS apps, dismissing the companies like Nintendo who, for all their recent troubles, have a long and storied history with gaming that Microsoft can only hope to compete with. - He brings some good points about the interface though. But that's honestly not the XBox's biggest problem.
- chokolad 14y ago
  he also left Microsoft 14 years ago, 2 years before xbox has shipped.
- run4yourlives 14y ago
  Apple wasn't at all interested in cell phones either, in case you don't remember. Ask Blackberry how far not worrying about Apple got them.
- jamesmiller5 14y ago
  "- It shows that he has a very distorted view of the gaming landscape, if the truly thinks that the XBox is the dominant platform, or that mobile games are a genuine threat to console gaming (they most certainly are not)." The threat of mobile gaming on the PC/Console gaming landscape has been recognized by some of the largest stars in the industry, eg: Gabe Newell states Valve wants the PC in the living room but the biggest competitor is Apple. [1] Dice 2013 Keynote with Gabe Newell at 7:30 minutes in. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PeYxKIDGh8I http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PeYxKIDGh8I
  - Kronopath 14y ago
    Pardon my skepticism. Notice how Gabe is talking about how Apple is a threat not to consoles, but to PCs moving into the living room (i.e. his company's plans). To people who don't know the industry well, this might not be easily differentiable, but the reality is that the two come from fundamentally different lineages. The thing that sells gaming platforms is not "natural progression into the living room", not an "upgrade cycle", not "development tools". It's the games. If Apple takes a similar approach to living-room gaming as they took to the iPhone, with an open development platform, or an "Apple TV" that plays games, but is not primarily focused on games, you'll see roughly the same quality of games come out there as on the iPhone. And notice how no iPhone apps sell for more than 99¢ these days. Apple has no history of game development. It's not a part of their DNA. And the gaming industry is a difficult business to succeed in. So to take any other approach would be monumentally difficult for them. The biggest threat to console gaming is not Apple. It's the consoles themselves. Consider the case of the iPhone vs. handheld consoles. The iPhone was released in the heyday of the Nintendo DS. The DS sold like hotcakes throughout its lifecycle, and didn't slow down at all even as the iPhone's app store exploded onto the scene. It was only once the 3DS came out that handeld consoles started to have difficulties. Of course now everyone starts blaming smartphones for taking the market away from them, but look at the console: it has a lineup of games that's mediocre at best, it focused on 3D features that nobody cares about, it had hardware flaws like a terrible battery life, and it was very expensive at launch. No wonder it disappointed. If consoles end up failing, they will fail on their own merits. It won't be because of an app store.
cek 14y ago
I think it's funny how Nat capitalizes "xBox". The official capitalization that was finally settled on was "Xbox". It annoys the marketing people to no end when people capitalize it wrong. I always thought xBox looked cooler.
- mnicole 14y ago
  It totally does. I always thought the official was "XBOX"; "Xbox" looks like the way someone uninformed would write it or that it was an afterthought of a product.
  - jrockway 14y ago
    Using correct English capitalization rules makes someone "uninformed" now?
    - wmf 14y ago
      Given that it's a proper noun and the pronunciation is "X Box", I would think the pseudo-initialism "XBox" would be more proper English.
      - jrockway 14y ago
        Given enough time, everything becomes assimilated to look "normal". Consider the words RADAR (RAdio Detection And Ranging) and LASER (Light Amplification by Stimulated Emission of Radiation) -- what started as initialisms became normal words after people started using them regularly. It can presumably happen to newer words like "Xbox" and "Gmail" too.
    - mnicole 14y ago
      The logotype is set as "XBOX", so yes, writing it as "Xbox" looks uninformed.
  - hackmiester 14y ago
    Meanwhile, in reality, Nat looks uninformed for writing "xBox" because it is incorrect. I'm not saying "Xbox" is necessarily the best, or that I even have an opinion, but it does happen to be the correct capitalization.
nthitz 14y ago
My Xbox is the only product/service I use where I feel that I am directly interacting with Microsoft. For me, the Xbox is the last area where Microsoft is relavent.
WestCoastJustin 14y ago
He has a massive point -- "Why can’t I write a game for xBox tomorrow using $100 worth of tools and my existing Windows laptop and test it on my home xBox or at my friends’ houses". I am wiling to guess that game development will follow the path of app stores. Consoles like the OUYA [1] will start to take over. The cycle from development to distribution will be cut by orders of magnitude. xBox needs to get on it and so do the other consoles! [1] http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/ouya/ouya-a-new-kind-of-video-game-console http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/ouya/ouya-a-new-kind-of-...
- GuiA 14y ago
  What's more, this point applies to ANY consumer device today: "Why can’t I write a game for <device with a CPU> tomorrow using $100 worth of tools and my existing Windows laptop and test it on my home <device with a CPU> or at my friends’ houses" If as a company you're going to push for any device (game console, tablet, TV-box, phone, etc.), that seems like a number one pre-requisite to significant market share.
  - deleted 14y ago
    [deleted]
  - czr80 14y ago
    Really? The number one pre-requisite? I think you're greatly overestimating how much the general population shares your particular hobbies.
    - theevocater 14y ago
      I think you are underestimating how much the general population wants apps
      - lelandbatey 14y ago
        Normally, I very much try to temper my thoughts on what the "general population" wants. I realize that I'm probably an outlier (as is nearly any person considered in isolation). However, I just do not see the never ending thirst for apps that people act like exists. What I do see is people enjoying well produced, well adapted, easily distributed pieces of software that do what they need, whether that's in the form of a web application, a mobile app, or a desktop program. I don't see people just flat-out demanding apps. No one says "I'd prefer to type all my documents on my 9 inch touch screen device" when there's a nice, light, ultrabook with a keyboard right next to it (and the same office suite on both devices). HOWEVER: of course people want their devices to be able to do lots of cool things. However, that's only if you can do LOTS of really cool things and do them well. Everybody, even your grandmother, snickers at the shoes equipped with a Twitter reader. There are limits, and developers would do well to take a good hard look at those limits.
d23 14y ago
For the love of all that is holy, please make the font darker.
- natbro 14y ago
  (sorry that is a lame font, let me find the knob on that gizmo)
GuiA 14y ago
"how it is crushing its original console competitors" Previous gen: > Xbox sales: 24 million > PS2 sales: 153 million Current gen: > Xbox 360 sales: 76 million > Wii sales: 100 million > PS3 sales: 70 million (all data from each console's respective Wikipedia) How is it "crushing" its competitors? Otherwise, I bought an XBox360 recently to get the Kinect for openFrameworks hacking and played a little bit with the console. All the points in the article regarding the UI are spot on - it is TERRIBLE to use. Nintendo's UIs are no reference either, but at least they're functional, while Sony's XMB is actually quite good (although the PS Vita's OS is a horrible thing to behold, which is scary for the PS4).
- sliverstorm 14y ago
  All the other caveats aside, I'm willing to consider those results "crushing", particularly when it comes to Sony. Yes, Sony and Microsoft are close to parity, but think about how quickly Microsoft got to parity. This is their second console, ever.
  - seanmcdirmid 14y ago
    But then how many people remember that the PS2 (just the previous generation) was Sony's second console ever? What was surprising about last generation was how Nintendo kicked everyones butt in the beginning.
    - sliverstorm 14y ago
      Sure, and the PS2 generally crushed its competition.
  - sjwright 14y ago
    The PS3 is Sony's third console, ever.
    - MBCook 14y ago
      Fourth. The PSP came out between the PS2 and PS3.
meh02 14y ago
Claiming that the Xbox (360? since that's what's shown in the screenshots) crushed its competition is disingenuous at best, since the Wii outsold it massively, and the PS3 has outsold it even after launching a year after.
mieubrisse 14y ago
Though I can't speak to the internal politics of Microsoft, I can say that as a gamer I don't remember ever getting upset at the pain points the author listed. Granted, I'm coming from a technical background (as are most people here), so I'm obviously not in the perspective of the small child the author sometimes takes in the picture captions. However, I feel there's a tension between the complexity of an application and the affordances it provides. To use one of the author's examples, choosing where to save an update (a useful affordance to have, I think) requires that the user suffer a bit more complexity. In my experience, the xBox doesn't manage this complexity poorly. That being said, the author has a strong point in regards to the indie game market. Game development could and should be as simple as it is on Android because the platform's support is there... it's just locked behind layers of legal and financial obstacles. I'd love to see an xBox Live market where indie games are strongly promoted, and I can't imagine the cost to Microsoft would be strong enough to outweigh the revenue gains they'd make if they took a percentage of sales.
- MichaelGG 14y ago
  Really? Every time I try to use my Xbox, I have to deal with the idiotically slow UI. Seriously, if I press the Xbox button, it pops up a grey rectangle, and takes several seconds to load in details. The dashboard is cluttered with ads (although only one tile is labeled so). Browsing games to buy on the Xbox itself is painfully slow. Many, many, seconds, just for simple screens to load. This guy totally nailed the reason I don't start up my Xbox as often as I'd like: It's annoying to get into. Once I'm in a game, it's _usually_ OK, although the slow saving thing is jarring. But the thought of it starting up, asking to update and reboot (usually 2 or 3 times in a row) - ah screw it.
deleted 14y ago
[deleted]
grannyg00se 14y ago
"...experiencing your competitor’s stumbling failure (yes, Sony, Nintendo – you are, I’m afraid, stumbling failures)." Can someone explain how Sony and Nintendo are stumbling failures in the console market? How extreme their failure must be, to feel comfortable stating it as a common fact requiring no explanation! I must be way out of touch.
- natbro 14y ago
  See InclinePlane's comment, above - http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5210998 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5210998. (s)he said it better than I was trying to.
tibbon 14y ago
The modern round of game systems are quite flawed from a UI/UX perspective, as the author here points out. My Playstation 3 forces me to do various updates to watch Netflix (which is what I use the system for 90% of the time). All of the systems ask you to input text in a super-awkward way to setup various aspects of the system (on-screen keyboards really suck for typing in complex WPA2 passwords). The XBox 360 is the most annoying by far, as it constantly bothers me about signing onto Microsoft Live. There were some fraudulent transactions on my account (which I thought was super-odd, because I use lengthy/unique passwords on everything), which Microsoft (after a 30-day period) refunded to my bank account. But I haven't been able to sign onto XBL since, and haven't really bothered to call Microsoft for support. The PS3 doesn't constantly bash my head in with sales and random junk when I just want to watch Netflix. Also, Microsoft seems to think that UI changes every 18 months is a great idea. They don't seem to add much value. Sadly, the Wii has been turned on maybe three times. It kinda feels like a dinosaur at this point. I use my Raspberry Pi more these days for gaming...
- _frog 14y ago
  Surprisingly, I've found the UI on the Wii U to be generally pretty good, even great at times. There's a lot of consistency between different parts of the OS and the underlying concepts are all totally sound. It makes me wonder whether this will be the generation where consoles can no longer get away with having poor UI design.
- sophacles 14y ago
  Seriously, the fact that I can't plug in an old keyboard to the PS3 for the occasional password or search drives me nuts.
  - TwiztidK 14y ago
    Unless they've changed something you should be able to use a keyboard with the PS3. I used to have a wireless USB keyboard/mouse that I used with my PS3 for web browsing.
    - 14y ago
manicdee 14y ago
Why can't you write software tomorrow and have it available to xBox customers the next day? Why can't that other malware author have his Trojan ready to install on millions of xBoxes? If you are going to sell to console users you have to accept that the platform will live or die based on how easy it is for consumers to use, and how safe they feel using it. The platform will need developers, but it doesn't have to cater to their every whim to survive. Developers are only important as far as providing reliable and trustworthy applications is concerned. The gatekeeper of the market needs to ensure that software sold through their market doesn't hurt their customers. Believing that making life easy for all developers (altruistic and malicious alike) is The One True Way to platform popularity is placing far to much emphasis on the small group of people responsible for supply, and nowhere near enough emphasis on the customers. Follow the money, take care of the people supplying it. If some developers get upset along the way because the world doesn't work the way they want, just shrug and carry on. I would have no trust for a market that would let me publish the software I write. I write crap :(
- mtgx 14y ago
  I don't think Microsoft is charging developers on the order of tens of thousands of dollar per game update, just to check if they maybe put some malware in there.
- natbro 14y ago
  ha! i guess i write mostly crap software, too :) i really wasn't trying to imply that you should simply open up the market to self-publishing with no restrictions or oversight. that would screw the customers and therefore the brand very quickly. we did this poorly at microsoft with windows in the early days, and they are still doing it. it's tragic how easily malware still spreads on windows. it's amazing to me that android has so much malware, that google didn't think through security and sandboxing well enough. or revocations, etc. if i were to make a recommendation for xBox development, it would be to build a developer program where I could develop on my console and a few other (100?) consoles (so i could test), akin to how we can do iOS development, and apps would have to be submitted to a store and approved with a little less weird oversight than Apple uses, but quite a bit more oversight than Google or Microsoft uses, to make sure they aren't doing something evil or stupid or aren't malware. it's not so much a belief that making life easier for developers is the most important thing as it is the belief that a free market will allow customers to get great apps and will prevent artificial barriers in distribution and promotion from blocking innovation. customers will spend money where there is innovation.
theevocater 14y ago
I've been shouting this for as long as I could: Once Apple (or maybe an Android company or even someone new) enters this market in earnest, Microsoft/Sony/Nintendo should take watch. Apple has the infrastructure to deliver games, has tiny/medium/large touch devices that can connect via bluetooth in many customers hands (which already play games), and many many game developers familiar with the platforms. Every big studio has an iDevice team and there are hundreds of good iPhone games out there. If Apple can position the AppleTV as a console (maybe open it up to developers) or build something more along the lines of a traditional console, they will crush. You can already do cool stuff like stream the game to the TV via airplay and use the device for a score/map screen (basically a WiiU) and it works surprisingly well and doesn't need cords or anything. The only other real competitor here I see is one of the bigger android vendors like Sony or Samsung. If Sony could get the company in shape and stop producing products that compete with each other, they have many of the same advantages as Apple. They have android devices, experience making console/tv/etc hardware and even own game studios. They make every kind of electronic that goes in the tv room. But Sony has had this for years so that seems unlikely. They have already had huge employee slashes and are floundering. Samsung has the same thing going on. They make everything and they have huge android phone/tablet penetration. I could see them easily jumping in on this and I hope they do. More competition blowing the doors of this stagnant industry could lead to a renaissance of smaller game studios. EDIT I should add that Valve also has a chance here. There are many rumors swarming about a valve console or something similar. They have the distribution system and the games market experience, but have no experience with how to make hardware. Remember the last time that happened? I believe they called it the "red ring of death". I'm not saying valve can't pull it off but hardware is hard to get right. I look forward to what they do.
- nemothekid 14y ago
  >If Apple can position the AppleTV as a console (maybe open it up to developers) or build something more along the lines of a traditional console, they will crush. This opinion is pushed around a lot, however I cannot really see it happening, and I doubt Apple will ever pursue such a strategy. For Apple to enter the console market, they would have to compete with the big boys, meaning if it can't push 100 million polygons at 1080p it will never get great adoption (who will want develop for a console with graphics out of 2005, and who will buy a console that doesn't have Call of Halo 7?). This means they have to create a modern console platform AND sell it at the price of an iPad. I'm not sure how the ghost of Jobs will take the news once he finds out Apple is selling hardware at a loss. Next I doubt they would have anything to gain other than "you can now play CoD on the Apple ecosystem." They would lose money on the hardware, they wouldn't make much on the software if App Store profits mean anything (http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-07-11/tech/29964545_1_app-store-gene-munster-apple http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-07-11/tech/29964545... reports they may have made ~$300 million). It just doesn't seem like a good idea finically. As far as the game console ecosystem goes I don't think MS/Sony/Nintendo will ever have to worry about Apple. All in all, I am not really convinced that the App Store market will work for any of them. I strongly believe only Valve has the resources (and direction* ) to transition into the digital delivery era, at the expense of introducing yet another company into my living room. Still the question is how do you effectively deliver a magic box capable of playing Call of Duty at 1080p at the price of current consoles sustainably/profitably. Vavle's success so far doesn't worry about hardware. Their customers are either willing to spend $1000+ on a gaming every couple years, or just suck it up and blame Dell/HP for why their laptop can't play CoD. * If Sony got their shit together, you are right, I believe they would take over the living room. They almost did it with PS2, and if the PS2 had come a bit later, or the PS3 was able to sell as much they might have done it. I think Sony could have built an Apple level brand loyalty (in the sense of having a Sony Computer, Phone, Laptop, Console) and (if they got much better at software development), they could have built a Sony store to manage your content on all those devices (after all they already own most of the movies and music). In another universe Sony may have been a Google + Hardware.
sounds 14y ago
Since it isn't clear in the article, ilikecode.wordpress.com is Nat Brown: http://kotaku.com/164683/a-brief-history-of-the-xbox http://kotaku.com/164683/a-brief-history-of-the-xbox He's commenting on this thread too as natbro.
tobyjsullivan 14y ago
The segment about terrible error messages really resonated with me. I was actually just thinking yesterday about how, after so many years, Windows errors on personal/home computers still tell you to talk to your "system administrator". Microsoft has never understood the basics of the personal market. Bad UX is in their blood.
OmarIsmail 14y ago
I don't know if people on HN are following the rumors related to the next-gen consoles, but it looks like MS is going to be addressing at least one of these issues: UI fluidity. If the rumors are accurate, then MS has a multi-pronged approach to making the UI a lot more fluid. While the 360 reserved 32MB of RAM for the OS, rumors suggest that MS is reserving 3GB (out of a total of 8GB). Furthermore, MS is apparently using a hardware-based display plane system where there are 4 independent display buffers that can be refreshed/displayed at different resolutions and framerates. 3 of the display planes are for the game to use (one for the HUD, 1 for foreground, 1 background) and 1 plane dedicated to the OS. I do 110% agree with the author that having a more app-store like ecosystem would be absolutely huge, and if MS were to properly implement, would let them compete vs Apple. If I had the money I'd buy both MS and Apple stock, because one of them is in the best position to win the living room in the next 5 years.
- revscat 14y ago
  The arguments he is making are about UX, not UI fluidity.
  - MBCook 14y ago
    Unfortunately, I'd say that the UX has actually deteriorated in the years I've owned an XBox. As they've tried to push more and more non-game content, access the games has gotten worse. The other things, like the settings screens, are just as bad as ever. I wouldn't award Sony's crossbar interface any points either. After a few years (on two systems), I've learned where to go hunt for the 2 or 3 things I usually use... but that's not a complement. The Wii, despite being sluggish, at least had a UI that made it very quick to launch games. I haven't used a Wii U so I don't know if it's any better. Based on my 3DS, I highly doubt it's objectively "good".
endlessvoid94 14y ago
I've also been yelling this to my friends for some time. I actually can't figure out why Apple hasn't yet released an Apple TV with a more powerful graphics and some active cooling, plus a controller. Allow iOS games and you have a serious, serious competition crushing game platform with a TON of existing games and content. Instantly.
- natbro 14y ago
  i personally think you'd also need a really good/new controller, but fundamentally i agree. i would develop for such a console in a heart.beat.
- joezydeco 14y ago
  No storage. Where is the AppleTV supposed to keep the gigabytes needed to run some of these titles? Is it going to stream off the cloud every time you run it?
  - natbro 14y ago
    yes, it would have to be a new Apple-TV with at least some more local storage. the current models have 8GB, I think. tweaking that up to 128GB or 256GB would open up a lot of possibilities without making a $199 price-point impossible. but hey, what do i know.
  - endlessvoid94 14y ago
    another friend had a similar complaint: graphics and how there isn't a fan. these are not the things to focus on. add some hard drive space, better graphics, and a fan, and whatever else "stands in their way", and they could kill it. all of that's implied.
- damian2000 14y ago
  The problem is most if not all games on iOS rely on touch controls, and transferring that control across to a portable controller isn't easy ... although a portable touchpad might be the way to go.
hoodoof 14y ago
This article is spot on. Why are indie developers not racing to develop apps for Xbox? Xbox should treat all apps, games, music, radio stations as equal, be they from indie developers, microsoft or from big name publishers. Provide a seamless tile space navigable via touchscreen. Oh, no wait, Apple is doing this already, and when it comes to the TV, we'll stop wishing Xbox could do it.
hoodoof 14y ago
Does Steve Ballmer ever read articles like this?
- iamsteveballmer 14y ago
  Yes.. I sometimes do. - Steve Ballmer
recoiledsnake 14y ago
Apple isn't making much money at all with the 30% cut of app sales. Their margins are huge on the iDevices. Since XBox is sold near cost, the move to 99c games and apps will just increase the costs needed to approve games while providing little profit or benefit to MS. Increasing the cost of hardware is another option but that's not easy either. Staying at the niche of high end games and including lots of media content is probably the better option.
- geon 14y ago
  > the move to 99c games and apps Steam has plenty of games in the 5, 10 and 20 $ price range.
InclinedPlane 14y ago
I see a couple comments here, including the highest voted top level comment, questioning how the xbox can be "crushing" their competition given that a straightforward reading of console sales indicates things aren't so cut and dried. However, the xbox is crushing its competition, in several ways, and let me explain why a naive reading of unit sales is misleading. Many consoles sell at a loss, especially initially, or on a very small margin, console sales alone are meaningless. Console sales themselves just serve to expand the player base, enabling follow on game and service sales where the vast majority of the profit to the console maker and of course to the game makers comes from. Here's where things get interesting. Nintendo has always sold everything at a profit, so they've never lost money on incremental console sales. However, again that margin is still fairly small, what they need is game sales. And for the Wii that's been a disaster. They sold a huge amount of consoles but a lot of the people who own them don't play them very much, and they don't buy many games. This is a big reason why Nintendo has stopped making a profit overall as a company the last few quarters, which has been rather disastrous for them. Now let's look at Sony. They started off with a crazy console design, which is almost an experimental prototype device, this is not the sort of thing one usually does with a console. The result was that the hardware of the console was hugely expensive, which meant that they were losing a huge amount of money on every console sale, about the same as the cost of a Wii. This meant that Sony needed to have strong follow-on game sales to make up for such huge loses. However, because the console was so difficult to develop for they struggled with game availability for a long time. Eventually these factors started to become less of a problem. Multi-platform game engines eventually matured sufficiently to where it wasn't a huge problem to target PS3/360/PC releases for most games, and that has helped PS3's game library tremendously, in addition to a very small handful of excellent exclusive titles (such as Little Big Planet, Heavy Rain, etc.) Also, eventually Sony managed to reduce the hardware cost of the PS3 down to a point where they weren't bleeding money on each sale so horrifically. However, despite all of this improvement it's questionable whether the PS3 has made a total profit for Sony overall, and if it has it's likely not very large. Worse yet, a lot of Sony's big efforts such as the playstation network and the Sony Move have not taken off and not garnered much enthusiasm in the market. And then we get to the 360. This console certainly has its fair share of problems and debacles. At launch it was definitely sold at a loss to the company. It struggled with reliability problems and expensive warranty extensions through many of the early hardware iterations. And sales in Japan have always been weak. But, somehow it managed to come out ahead. The 360 never sold at as much of a loss as the PS3 and it didn't take long for them to get to a point where they reduced hardware costs enough to make a profit on console sales. Even with the expensive $1 billion warranty extension their balance sheet on pure hardware alone is far, far better than Sony's, which means that MS actually needs to sell fewer games per console to come out ahead in total profit. As it turns out, people who own 360s are far more active gamers than people who own other consoles. They play for more hours per month, and they spend more money on games. Of all of the consoles currently on store shelves, the 360 has the highest multiple of average number of follow-on game purchases per console. But it doesn't stop there. The Kinect add-on has been one of the most popular consumer electronics devices in history. Also, whereas every major competing online multiplayer service is offered for free (Steam, Origin, PSN), Microsoft's Xbox Live Gold service costs money. On its own it has subscription volume and costs similar to the most successful MMOs in existence (such as WoW). That's a testament to the sheer volume of people who think that Microsoft's service offering is valuable enough to pay cold hard cash for, but it also, of course, goes straight to Microsoft's bottom line, to the tune of around a billion dollars per year. And because it's a digital service the development costs are fairly low. But wait, there's more. In addition to game sales, xbox players are also more likely to purchase DLC packs and other digital content such as xbox live arcade games. Again the incremental costs on these digital goods are fairly low so Microsoft (and the game publishers) make a much higher margin on them. What does this all mean? Several things. First, in total Microsoft has been far better at consistently extracting significant profits from the gaming market over the lifetime of the current console generation. Second, Microsoft has far more momentum in terms of game sales and customer loyalty and enthusiasm than the other console players. Third, Microsoft is making far more headway than other console makers in earning revenue from digital goods and services, where the profit margins are the highest. Fourth, many game makers find that they make a lot more money from the xbox versions of their products, which helps ensure that exclusive games that aren't on the xbox are a rarity. And this is precisely why this year we will see all 3 companies release new consoles, and why Nintendo has already done so. Because without a significant disruption in the status quo the result is that the xbox will continue to outpace everyone else, and continue to gobble up more and more market share and gaming revenue. Nintendo is trying to give themselves a chance to stay relevant. And Sony is trying to put themselves on a new footing. And Microsoft is trying to hold onto what they have or extend their lead. Note that I intentionally left out a lot of complicating elements such as competition from PC and mobile/tablet gaming, introduction of new console makers, etc. That may play a role in the future but it hasn't played a significant role in the fight between the different home consoles so far.
Benferhat 14y ago
I hate the Xbox 360 because they make it so hard to stream video to it. What the hell, Microsoft? The PS3 is a great DLNA renderer right out of the box.
teamonkey 14y ago
It seems obvious to me that the next Xbox will support small developers via some form of the Windows App Store. No point having a unified App Store if that wasn't to be the case. I feel there's a strong chance that many existing apps will Just Work on the next Xbox.
gfodor 14y ago
Mark my words in 5 years time it will be Valve and Apple in the living room. Sony, MS, and yes, for real this time, Nintendo are done. The wave has crested and basically Samsung and Google are the only other companies who are trying to ride it.
sunjain 14y ago
Game consoles are irrelevant from point of view of gaining/retaining big chunk of consumer market. There is a reason why Apple avoided this market (instead of focussing on music, then phone and of course tablet), while Microsoft was busy competing with Sonys and Ninentendos in early formative years of Xbox. In less than five years, this whole game console thing will be a feature in TV/tablet etc.
mkent 14y ago
Having recently fired it up again the xbox experience (outside of xbla) remains decidedly old school: - You still need the correct dvd inserted to play. - You can't turn the xbox off and expect it to save your progress. - Some games are tightly integrated with xbox live, good luck not paying for it. - It takes forever between the xbox boot time, initial game load time, copyright notices, in game menus, and save game load time to actually start enjoying a game. - Installing games to the hard drive for a slight load time bump is very, very slow. Since picking one up I've been really spoiled by the ipad mini. Just pick it up and play, don't sweat the details.
ChrisNorstrom 14y ago
I have heard people still there arguing that the transition of the brand from hardcore gamers to casual users and tv-uses was an intentional and crafted success. It was not. It was an accident Oh common man, YES it was intentional. MS worked its ass off on transitioning to casual users. Changing the ENTIRE UI, the addition of Avatars (MS's version of Nintendo's Miis), the advertising and marketing.
- natbro 14y ago
  i'm honestly not sure if you're being sarcastic or not. if you are: heh, good one. if you're not: there's nothing wrong with putting some of your wood behind encouraging casual gaming and expanding your market, but putting ALL of your wood behind it? what else did they get accomplished in this time period? not enough other things if you take a look at how many people and how much money was being spent on R&D in that division.
jpxxx 14y ago
The console industry used to sell high-end wedding cakes. Now they sell wedding cakes, some sheet cakes, and occasionally a pre-boxed slice if there are leftovers. These are your only options for snacking in the living room. You order a wedding cake, go pick it up in a few days, and hope it tastes good. They are about to find out what happens when piping hot cookies are hand-delivered in 30 seconds or less to the living room, for free. The only thing Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo have going for them right now is that the iPhone and iPad are drawing away virtually all of Apple's not-inconsiderable attention. Here's how it will work: Apple will release a $99 controller. It'll look like a SNES controller mated with an iPhone 3GS: 4" standard-resolution multitouch screen, D-pad, four buttons, two shoulder buttons, and a Lightning port. (Inside is NOBODY CARES. gyro, bluetooth, Wifi, iOS SOC, battery.) And, naturally, it will be the least embarrassing looking item in your living room. You'll take it out of the box, type in your Wifi password, log in to iCloud, and THAT IS IT. The Apple TV (of which there are millions already installed) leaps into action. All the plumbing is silently set up, the App Store icon appears, a free showpiece game immediately offers to install itself, and Apple connects a half billion users to the television overnight. Most of the Wii U's best controller ideas are co-opted, the overall controller complexity is a scant third of anyone else's, it retains all the power of touch controls, it requires no complicated setup whatsoever, all the game state is cloud-backed, dozens of touch-resistant game genres suddenly find a home in the lowest-walled garden of any shipping console, customers can add more controllers if desired, and the whole panoply of mobile software can infiltrate the last screen standing. The Apple TV is a freaking trojan horse, if Apple wants it to be. Nobody else has the UX to stave them off, or the ability to hit the price points Apple can, or their sheer distribution power, or their sheer brand power, or anything. Free cookies. Not nut-and-raisin filled wedding cakes. Which one is your kid going to reach for?
- pfisch 14y ago
  I think you are sort of right. I think that maybe apple's console entry could become a bastion of $1, low budget casual games. Not because it couldn't handle the hardcore games market, but because the store will be setup with the same problem all apple stores have of low visibility and freemium garbage dominating the storefront. Also a ton of devs will port their already existing casual freemium stuff to this device. This is partially Apple's fault, but largely it is a problem of the wider market that Apple hits. They hit a ton of non-gamers with their products and those people then use the store and push farmville/zynga poker garbage to the top. Apple could address this with their store but I doubt they will. If they wanted to they already would have by now. The other issue is that Apple products generally sacrifice usability for style, and in this instance that will probably mean a controller with no real buttons or something ridiculous in that vein. This is fine and it will probably be successful, but it is not even going to be the same market that the xbox, steam box, or ps4 are hitting.
ern 14y ago
To add to OP's usability gripes, as a new Xbox owner (bought it over Christmas) with a grand total of 4 bundled games and a Kinect: Kinect menu interaction needs to be improved. Kinect Adventures has it right for its age group, showing a full mirror image of the user on its menus, but Kinect Sports is a mess of deeply nested menus, which my 4 year old, who has been able to navigate an iPad since age 2, can't get right yet. Dance Central uses an un-intuitive swipe from right-to-left, that took a while for me to figure out. I suppose controllerless UX is still in its infancy, but still... Then we get to the sign in system: the sign-in, sign-out is very confusing, and in Kinect Sports, almost useless - I never know who the second player is going to be. I also have a very weak mental model of how Kinect ID facial recognition works -at what point are you signed into a game? I still don't really understand XBox Live vs XBox Live Gold. Why should I subscribe for utility apps I already have, or to use a clunky web browser? Oh yes, and no NTFS support, on a Microsoft platform.
- VLM 14y ago
  Ern I believe we purchased the same xbox package deal for christmas. My pet peeve WRT kinect is the agony I feel when I have to wave like a lunatic 25 times for 2-3 minutes to navigate a simple menu of songs when there's a perfectly good hand controller that could have done what I want in seconds. One undiscussed economic effect is free trial/demo games and their impact on the market. Before I tried the demos with the kids, I'm planning on getting kinectimals and not getting minecraft... after the demos its intensely the other way around.
pkmays 14y ago
Developing for the console seems really harsh. Somewhat related, an indie company managed to get a fighting game out on PSN and XBLA. It just got an update on PS3, but it can't get updated for Xbox because the patch is bigger than 4MB. [1] Keep in mind, these are free updates that fix bugs and stability issues, not paid DLC. Even so, patching is really, really expensive. [2] [1] http://shoryuken.com/2013/01/08/skullgirls-xbox-360-patch-delayed-due-to-size-limitations-four-to-five-dlc-characters-originally-planned/ http://shoryuken.com/2013/01/08/skullgirls-xbox-360-patch-de... [2] http://kotaku.com/5884842/wait-it-costs-40000-to-patch-a-console-game http://kotaku.com/5884842/wait-it-costs-40000-to-patch-a-con...
fmischel 14y ago
I think it's interesting that to note that the article stated a 60% YOY decline even though their stock price hasn't reflected this. For the past three years the stock has stayed relatively within the same levels. But nonetheless a very interesting post.

338 points by cek 14y ago

After letting the article percolate for a bit. Just think about what the industry will look like in 10 years. - internet game distribution is going to change content delivery just like it changed VHF/DVD rental stores. The game stores will be gone, walmart will not display/sell them. - those who can provide a pipeline like netflix for games are going to destroy the current establishment. It will likely be worse than what netflix did, simply because the development of games is easy compared it TV/Movies. - the idea of xbox, playstation, wii might be gone. There might be a generic console with an online pipeline connected to it. Or maybe you will have a xbox, playstation, wii portal that will connect you to the pipeline just like what netflix does for movies? Maybe I'm just talking out my ass but it looks like things are going to massively change.

natbro 14y ago
The dawning horror for the console vendors is that the change is already happening around them and on every iPhone, iPad, Samsung, Android, etc device. These already have digital-only distribution. These already have very high-quality GPU's that push almost as many triangles as an xBox 360 or PS3, and are on a faster product-iteration-cycle. Some of these - iPad3 and Samsung Galaxy Tab's - already have higher-resolution screens than your 60" HDTV and many people are using them more hours per day and spending more dollars per device than they ever did on consoles. Yikes, if I were still in the console biz, I would push like hell to move a little faster than updating hardware every 7-8 years and doing poorly with software.
- chokolad 14y ago
  well, xbox 360 kinda had digital distribution since it's launch.
- Goronmon 14y ago
  The dawning horror for the console vendors is that the change is already happening around them and on every iPhone, iPad, Samsung, Android, etc device. These already have digital-only distribution. These already have very high-quality GPU's that push almost as many triangles as an xBox 360 or PS3, and are on a faster product-iteration-cycle. Some of these - iPad3 and Samsung Galaxy Tab's - already have higher-resolution screens than your 60" HDTV and many people are using them more hours per day You could argue a very similar point by replacing mobile devices with PC in your argument. But I console vendors don't look in horror in the PC market. You are also missing a fairly big aspect of a game console, the games themselves. many people are using them more hours per day and spending more dollars per device than they ever did on consoles Do you have a reference for this? Sounds interesting, but I haven't seen the comparison before.
damian2000 14y ago
Sounds like a SteamBox. http://au.ign.com/articles/2013/01/18/the-promise-and-potential-pitfalls-of-valves-steam-box http://au.ign.com/articles/2013/01/18/the-promise-and-potent...

Kronopath 14y ago

This is a very revealing article: - It gives official confirmation of the (somewhat obvious) idea that the XBox was a defensive move against general living-room entertainment boxes. - It shows that he has a very distorted view of the gaming landscape, if the truly thinks that the XBox is the dominant platform, or that mobile games are a genuine threat to console gaming (they most certainly are not). - He singles out Apple of all companies, as the biggest threat to mobile gaming, despite the fact that Apple doesn't seem to be too interested in anything other than simple 99¢ iOS apps, dismissing the companies like Nintendo who, for all their recent troubles, have a long and storied history with gaming that Microsoft can only hope to compete with. - He brings some good points about the interface though. But that's honestly not the XBox's biggest problem.

chokolad 14y ago
he also left Microsoft 14 years ago, 2 years before xbox has shipped.
run4yourlives 14y ago
Apple wasn't at all interested in cell phones either, in case you don't remember. Ask Blackberry how far not worrying about Apple got them.
jamesmiller5 14y ago
"- It shows that he has a very distorted view of the gaming landscape, if the truly thinks that the XBox is the dominant platform, or that mobile games are a genuine threat to console gaming (they most certainly are not)." The threat of mobile gaming on the PC/Console gaming landscape has been recognized by some of the largest stars in the industry, eg: Gabe Newell states Valve wants the PC in the living room but the biggest competitor is Apple. [1] Dice 2013 Keynote with Gabe Newell at 7:30 minutes in. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PeYxKIDGh8I http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PeYxKIDGh8I
- Kronopath 14y ago
  Pardon my skepticism. Notice how Gabe is talking about how Apple is a threat not to consoles, but to PCs moving into the living room (i.e. his company's plans). To people who don't know the industry well, this might not be easily differentiable, but the reality is that the two come from fundamentally different lineages. The thing that sells gaming platforms is not "natural progression into the living room", not an "upgrade cycle", not "development tools". It's the games. If Apple takes a similar approach to living-room gaming as they took to the iPhone, with an open development platform, or an "Apple TV" that plays games, but is not primarily focused on games, you'll see roughly the same quality of games come out there as on the iPhone. And notice how no iPhone apps sell for more than 99¢ these days. Apple has no history of game development. It's not a part of their DNA. And the gaming industry is a difficult business to succeed in. So to take any other approach would be monumentally difficult for them. The biggest threat to console gaming is not Apple. It's the consoles themselves. Consider the case of the iPhone vs. handheld consoles. The iPhone was released in the heyday of the Nintendo DS. The DS sold like hotcakes throughout its lifecycle, and didn't slow down at all even as the iPhone's app store exploded onto the scene. It was only once the 3DS came out that handeld consoles started to have difficulties. Of course now everyone starts blaming smartphones for taking the market away from them, but look at the console: it has a lineup of games that's mediocre at best, it focused on 3D features that nobody cares about, it had hardware flaws like a terrible battery life, and it was very expensive at launch. No wonder it disappointed. If consoles end up failing, they will fail on their own merits. It won't be because of an app store.

cek 14y ago

I think it's funny how Nat capitalizes "xBox". The official capitalization that was finally settled on was "Xbox". It annoys the marketing people to no end when people capitalize it wrong. I always thought xBox looked cooler.

mnicole 14y ago
It totally does. I always thought the official was "XBOX"; "Xbox" looks like the way someone uninformed would write it or that it was an afterthought of a product.
- jrockway 14y ago
  Using correct English capitalization rules makes someone "uninformed" now?
  - wmf 14y ago
    Given that it's a proper noun and the pronunciation is "X Box", I would think the pseudo-initialism "XBox" would be more proper English.
    - jrockway 14y ago
      Given enough time, everything becomes assimilated to look "normal". Consider the words RADAR (RAdio Detection And Ranging) and LASER (Light Amplification by Stimulated Emission of Radiation) -- what started as initialisms became normal words after people started using them regularly. It can presumably happen to newer words like "Xbox" and "Gmail" too.
  - mnicole 14y ago
    The logotype is set as "XBOX", so yes, writing it as "Xbox" looks uninformed.
- hackmiester 14y ago
  Meanwhile, in reality, Nat looks uninformed for writing "xBox" because it is incorrect. I'm not saying "Xbox" is necessarily the best, or that I even have an opinion, but it does happen to be the correct capitalization.

nthitz 14y ago

My Xbox is the only product/service I use where I feel that I am directly interacting with Microsoft. For me, the Xbox is the last area where Microsoft is relavent.

WestCoastJustin 14y ago

He has a massive point -- "Why can’t I write a game for xBox tomorrow using $100 worth of tools and my existing Windows laptop and test it on my home xBox or at my friends’ houses". I am wiling to guess that game development will follow the path of app stores. Consoles like the OUYA [1] will start to take over. The cycle from development to distribution will be cut by orders of magnitude. xBox needs to get on it and so do the other consoles! [1] http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/ouya/ouya-a-new-kind-of-video-game-console http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/ouya/ouya-a-new-kind-of-...

GuiA 14y ago
What's more, this point applies to ANY consumer device today: "Why can’t I write a game for <device with a CPU> tomorrow using $100 worth of tools and my existing Windows laptop and test it on my home <device with a CPU> or at my friends’ houses" If as a company you're going to push for any device (game console, tablet, TV-box, phone, etc.), that seems like a number one pre-requisite to significant market share.
- deleted 14y ago
  [deleted]
- czr80 14y ago
  Really? The number one pre-requisite? I think you're greatly overestimating how much the general population shares your particular hobbies.
  - theevocater 14y ago
    I think you are underestimating how much the general population wants apps
    - lelandbatey 14y ago
      Normally, I very much try to temper my thoughts on what the "general population" wants. I realize that I'm probably an outlier (as is nearly any person considered in isolation). However, I just do not see the never ending thirst for apps that people act like exists. What I do see is people enjoying well produced, well adapted, easily distributed pieces of software that do what they need, whether that's in the form of a web application, a mobile app, or a desktop program. I don't see people just flat-out demanding apps. No one says "I'd prefer to type all my documents on my 9 inch touch screen device" when there's a nice, light, ultrabook with a keyboard right next to it (and the same office suite on both devices). HOWEVER: of course people want their devices to be able to do lots of cool things. However, that's only if you can do LOTS of really cool things and do them well. Everybody, even your grandmother, snickers at the shoes equipped with a Twitter reader. There are limits, and developers would do well to take a good hard look at those limits.

d23 14y ago

For the love of all that is holy, please make the font darker.

natbro 14y ago
(sorry that is a lame font, let me find the knob on that gizmo)

GuiA 14y ago

"how it is crushing its original console competitors" Previous gen: > Xbox sales: 24 million > PS2 sales: 153 million Current gen: > Xbox 360 sales: 76 million > Wii sales: 100 million > PS3 sales: 70 million (all data from each console's respective Wikipedia) How is it "crushing" its competitors? Otherwise, I bought an XBox360 recently to get the Kinect for openFrameworks hacking and played a little bit with the console. All the points in the article regarding the UI are spot on - it is TERRIBLE to use. Nintendo's UIs are no reference either, but at least they're functional, while Sony's XMB is actually quite good (although the PS Vita's OS is a horrible thing to behold, which is scary for the PS4).

sliverstorm 14y ago
All the other caveats aside, I'm willing to consider those results "crushing", particularly when it comes to Sony. Yes, Sony and Microsoft are close to parity, but think about how quickly Microsoft got to parity. This is their second console, ever.
- seanmcdirmid 14y ago
  But then how many people remember that the PS2 (just the previous generation) was Sony's second console ever? What was surprising about last generation was how Nintendo kicked everyones butt in the beginning.
  - sliverstorm 14y ago
    Sure, and the PS2 generally crushed its competition.
- sjwright 14y ago
  The PS3 is Sony's third console, ever.
  - MBCook 14y ago
    Fourth. The PSP came out between the PS2 and PS3.

meh02 14y ago

Claiming that the Xbox (360? since that's what's shown in the screenshots) crushed its competition is disingenuous at best, since the Wii outsold it massively, and the PS3 has outsold it even after launching a year after.

mieubrisse 14y ago

Though I can't speak to the internal politics of Microsoft, I can say that as a gamer I don't remember ever getting upset at the pain points the author listed. Granted, I'm coming from a technical background (as are most people here), so I'm obviously not in the perspective of the small child the author sometimes takes in the picture captions. However, I feel there's a tension between the complexity of an application and the affordances it provides. To use one of the author's examples, choosing where to save an update (a useful affordance to have, I think) requires that the user suffer a bit more complexity. In my experience, the xBox doesn't manage this complexity poorly. That being said, the author has a strong point in regards to the indie game market. Game development could and should be as simple as it is on Android because the platform's support is there... it's just locked behind layers of legal and financial obstacles. I'd love to see an xBox Live market where indie games are strongly promoted, and I can't imagine the cost to Microsoft would be strong enough to outweigh the revenue gains they'd make if they took a percentage of sales.

MichaelGG 14y ago
Really? Every time I try to use my Xbox, I have to deal with the idiotically slow UI. Seriously, if I press the Xbox button, it pops up a grey rectangle, and takes several seconds to load in details. The dashboard is cluttered with ads (although only one tile is labeled so). Browsing games to buy on the Xbox itself is painfully slow. Many, many, seconds, just for simple screens to load. This guy totally nailed the reason I don't start up my Xbox as often as I'd like: It's annoying to get into. Once I'm in a game, it's _usually_ OK, although the slow saving thing is jarring. But the thought of it starting up, asking to update and reboot (usually 2 or 3 times in a row) - ah screw it.

deleted 14y ago

[deleted]

grannyg00se 14y ago

"...experiencing your competitor’s stumbling failure (yes, Sony, Nintendo – you are, I’m afraid, stumbling failures)." Can someone explain how Sony and Nintendo are stumbling failures in the console market? How extreme their failure must be, to feel comfortable stating it as a common fact requiring no explanation! I must be way out of touch.

natbro 14y ago
See InclinePlane's comment, above - http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5210998 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5210998. (s)he said it better than I was trying to.

tibbon 14y ago

The modern round of game systems are quite flawed from a UI/UX perspective, as the author here points out. My Playstation 3 forces me to do various updates to watch Netflix (which is what I use the system for 90% of the time). All of the systems ask you to input text in a super-awkward way to setup various aspects of the system (on-screen keyboards really suck for typing in complex WPA2 passwords). The XBox 360 is the most annoying by far, as it constantly bothers me about signing onto Microsoft Live. There were some fraudulent transactions on my account (which I thought was super-odd, because I use lengthy/unique passwords on everything), which Microsoft (after a 30-day period) refunded to my bank account. But I haven't been able to sign onto XBL since, and haven't really bothered to call Microsoft for support. The PS3 doesn't constantly bash my head in with sales and random junk when I just want to watch Netflix. Also, Microsoft seems to think that UI changes every 18 months is a great idea. They don't seem to add much value. Sadly, the Wii has been turned on maybe three times. It kinda feels like a dinosaur at this point. I use my Raspberry Pi more these days for gaming...

_frog 14y ago
Surprisingly, I've found the UI on the Wii U to be generally pretty good, even great at times. There's a lot of consistency between different parts of the OS and the underlying concepts are all totally sound. It makes me wonder whether this will be the generation where consoles can no longer get away with having poor UI design.
sophacles 14y ago
Seriously, the fact that I can't plug in an old keyboard to the PS3 for the occasional password or search drives me nuts.
- TwiztidK 14y ago
  Unless they've changed something you should be able to use a keyboard with the PS3. I used to have a wireless USB keyboard/mouse that I used with my PS3 for web browsing.
  - 14y ago

manicdee 14y ago

Why can't you write software tomorrow and have it available to xBox customers the next day? Why can't that other malware author have his Trojan ready to install on millions of xBoxes? If you are going to sell to console users you have to accept that the platform will live or die based on how easy it is for consumers to use, and how safe they feel using it. The platform will need developers, but it doesn't have to cater to their every whim to survive. Developers are only important as far as providing reliable and trustworthy applications is concerned. The gatekeeper of the market needs to ensure that software sold through their market doesn't hurt their customers. Believing that making life easy for all developers (altruistic and malicious alike) is The One True Way to platform popularity is placing far to much emphasis on the small group of people responsible for supply, and nowhere near enough emphasis on the customers. Follow the money, take care of the people supplying it. If some developers get upset along the way because the world doesn't work the way they want, just shrug and carry on. I would have no trust for a market that would let me publish the software I write. I write crap :(

mtgx 14y ago
I don't think Microsoft is charging developers on the order of tens of thousands of dollar per game update, just to check if they maybe put some malware in there.
natbro 14y ago
ha! i guess i write mostly crap software, too :) i really wasn't trying to imply that you should simply open up the market to self-publishing with no restrictions or oversight. that would screw the customers and therefore the brand very quickly. we did this poorly at microsoft with windows in the early days, and they are still doing it. it's tragic how easily malware still spreads on windows. it's amazing to me that android has so much malware, that google didn't think through security and sandboxing well enough. or revocations, etc. if i were to make a recommendation for xBox development, it would be to build a developer program where I could develop on my console and a few other (100?) consoles (so i could test), akin to how we can do iOS development, and apps would have to be submitted to a store and approved with a little less weird oversight than Apple uses, but quite a bit more oversight than Google or Microsoft uses, to make sure they aren't doing something evil or stupid or aren't malware. it's not so much a belief that making life easier for developers is the most important thing as it is the belief that a free market will allow customers to get great apps and will prevent artificial barriers in distribution and promotion from blocking innovation. customers will spend money where there is innovation.

theevocater 14y ago

I've been shouting this for as long as I could: Once Apple (or maybe an Android company or even someone new) enters this market in earnest, Microsoft/Sony/Nintendo should take watch. Apple has the infrastructure to deliver games, has tiny/medium/large touch devices that can connect via bluetooth in many customers hands (which already play games), and many many game developers familiar with the platforms. Every big studio has an iDevice team and there are hundreds of good iPhone games out there. If Apple can position the AppleTV as a console (maybe open it up to developers) or build something more along the lines of a traditional console, they will crush. You can already do cool stuff like stream the game to the TV via airplay and use the device for a score/map screen (basically a WiiU) and it works surprisingly well and doesn't need cords or anything. The only other real competitor here I see is one of the bigger android vendors like Sony or Samsung. If Sony could get the company in shape and stop producing products that compete with each other, they have many of the same advantages as Apple. They have android devices, experience making console/tv/etc hardware and even own game studios. They make every kind of electronic that goes in the tv room. But Sony has had this for years so that seems unlikely. They have already had huge employee slashes and are floundering. Samsung has the same thing going on. They make everything and they have huge android phone/tablet penetration. I could see them easily jumping in on this and I hope they do. More competition blowing the doors of this stagnant industry could lead to a renaissance of smaller game studios. EDIT I should add that Valve also has a chance here. There are many rumors swarming about a valve console or something similar. They have the distribution system and the games market experience, but have no experience with how to make hardware. Remember the last time that happened? I believe they called it the "red ring of death". I'm not saying valve can't pull it off but hardware is hard to get right. I look forward to what they do.

nemothekid 14y ago
>If Apple can position the AppleTV as a console (maybe open it up to developers) or build something more along the lines of a traditional console, they will crush. This opinion is pushed around a lot, however I cannot really see it happening, and I doubt Apple will ever pursue such a strategy. For Apple to enter the console market, they would have to compete with the big boys, meaning if it can't push 100 million polygons at 1080p it will never get great adoption (who will want develop for a console with graphics out of 2005, and who will buy a console that doesn't have Call of Halo 7?). This means they have to create a modern console platform AND sell it at the price of an iPad. I'm not sure how the ghost of Jobs will take the news once he finds out Apple is selling hardware at a loss. Next I doubt they would have anything to gain other than "you can now play CoD on the Apple ecosystem." They would lose money on the hardware, they wouldn't make much on the software if App Store profits mean anything (http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-07-11/tech/29964545_1_app-store-gene-munster-apple http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-07-11/tech/29964545... reports they may have made ~$300 million). It just doesn't seem like a good idea finically. As far as the game console ecosystem goes I don't think MS/Sony/Nintendo will ever have to worry about Apple. All in all, I am not really convinced that the App Store market will work for any of them. I strongly believe only Valve has the resources (and direction* ) to transition into the digital delivery era, at the expense of introducing yet another company into my living room. Still the question is how do you effectively deliver a magic box capable of playing Call of Duty at 1080p at the price of current consoles sustainably/profitably. Vavle's success so far doesn't worry about hardware. Their customers are either willing to spend $1000+ on a gaming every couple years, or just suck it up and blame Dell/HP for why their laptop can't play CoD. * If Sony got their shit together, you are right, I believe they would take over the living room. They almost did it with PS2, and if the PS2 had come a bit later, or the PS3 was able to sell as much they might have done it. I think Sony could have built an Apple level brand loyalty (in the sense of having a Sony Computer, Phone, Laptop, Console) and (if they got much better at software development), they could have built a Sony store to manage your content on all those devices (after all they already own most of the movies and music). In another universe Sony may have been a Google + Hardware.

sounds 14y ago

Since it isn't clear in the article, ilikecode.wordpress.com is Nat Brown: http://kotaku.com/164683/a-brief-history-of-the-xbox http://kotaku.com/164683/a-brief-history-of-the-xbox He's commenting on this thread too as natbro.

tobyjsullivan 14y ago

The segment about terrible error messages really resonated with me. I was actually just thinking yesterday about how, after so many years, Windows errors on personal/home computers still tell you to talk to your "system administrator". Microsoft has never understood the basics of the personal market. Bad UX is in their blood.

OmarIsmail 14y ago

I don't know if people on HN are following the rumors related to the next-gen consoles, but it looks like MS is going to be addressing at least one of these issues: UI fluidity. If the rumors are accurate, then MS has a multi-pronged approach to making the UI a lot more fluid. While the 360 reserved 32MB of RAM for the OS, rumors suggest that MS is reserving 3GB (out of a total of 8GB). Furthermore, MS is apparently using a hardware-based display plane system where there are 4 independent display buffers that can be refreshed/displayed at different resolutions and framerates. 3 of the display planes are for the game to use (one for the HUD, 1 for foreground, 1 background) and 1 plane dedicated to the OS. I do 110% agree with the author that having a more app-store like ecosystem would be absolutely huge, and if MS were to properly implement, would let them compete vs Apple. If I had the money I'd buy both MS and Apple stock, because one of them is in the best position to win the living room in the next 5 years.

revscat 14y ago
The arguments he is making are about UX, not UI fluidity.
- MBCook 14y ago
  Unfortunately, I'd say that the UX has actually deteriorated in the years I've owned an XBox. As they've tried to push more and more non-game content, access the games has gotten worse. The other things, like the settings screens, are just as bad as ever. I wouldn't award Sony's crossbar interface any points either. After a few years (on two systems), I've learned where to go hunt for the 2 or 3 things I usually use... but that's not a complement. The Wii, despite being sluggish, at least had a UI that made it very quick to launch games. I haven't used a Wii U so I don't know if it's any better. Based on my 3DS, I highly doubt it's objectively "good".

endlessvoid94 14y ago

I've also been yelling this to my friends for some time. I actually can't figure out why Apple hasn't yet released an Apple TV with a more powerful graphics and some active cooling, plus a controller. Allow iOS games and you have a serious, serious competition crushing game platform with a TON of existing games and content. Instantly.

natbro 14y ago
i personally think you'd also need a really good/new controller, but fundamentally i agree. i would develop for such a console in a heart.beat.
joezydeco 14y ago
No storage. Where is the AppleTV supposed to keep the gigabytes needed to run some of these titles? Is it going to stream off the cloud every time you run it?
- natbro 14y ago
  yes, it would have to be a new Apple-TV with at least some more local storage. the current models have 8GB, I think. tweaking that up to 128GB or 256GB would open up a lot of possibilities without making a $199 price-point impossible. but hey, what do i know.
- endlessvoid94 14y ago
  another friend had a similar complaint: graphics and how there isn't a fan. these are not the things to focus on. add some hard drive space, better graphics, and a fan, and whatever else "stands in their way", and they could kill it. all of that's implied.
damian2000 14y ago
The problem is most if not all games on iOS rely on touch controls, and transferring that control across to a portable controller isn't easy ... although a portable touchpad might be the way to go.

hoodoof 14y ago

This article is spot on. Why are indie developers not racing to develop apps for Xbox? Xbox should treat all apps, games, music, radio stations as equal, be they from indie developers, microsoft or from big name publishers. Provide a seamless tile space navigable via touchscreen. Oh, no wait, Apple is doing this already, and when it comes to the TV, we'll stop wishing Xbox could do it.

hoodoof 14y ago

Does Steve Ballmer ever read articles like this?

iamsteveballmer 14y ago
Yes.. I sometimes do. - Steve Ballmer

recoiledsnake 14y ago

Apple isn't making much money at all with the 30% cut of app sales. Their margins are huge on the iDevices. Since XBox is sold near cost, the move to 99c games and apps will just increase the costs needed to approve games while providing little profit or benefit to MS. Increasing the cost of hardware is another option but that's not easy either. Staying at the niche of high end games and including lots of media content is probably the better option.

geon 14y ago
> the move to 99c games and apps Steam has plenty of games in the 5, 10 and 20 $ price range.

InclinedPlane 14y ago

I see a couple comments here, including the highest voted top level comment, questioning how the xbox can be "crushing" their competition given that a straightforward reading of console sales indicates things aren't so cut and dried. However, the xbox is crushing its competition, in several ways, and let me explain why a naive reading of unit sales is misleading. Many consoles sell at a loss, especially initially, or on a very small margin, console sales alone are meaningless. Console sales themselves just serve to expand the player base, enabling follow on game and service sales where the vast majority of the profit to the console maker and of course to the game makers comes from. Here's where things get interesting. Nintendo has always sold everything at a profit, so they've never lost money on incremental console sales. However, again that margin is still fairly small, what they need is game sales. And for the Wii that's been a disaster. They sold a huge amount of consoles but a lot of the people who own them don't play them very much, and they don't buy many games. This is a big reason why Nintendo has stopped making a profit overall as a company the last few quarters, which has been rather disastrous for them. Now let's look at Sony. They started off with a crazy console design, which is almost an experimental prototype device, this is not the sort of thing one usually does with a console. The result was that the hardware of the console was hugely expensive, which meant that they were losing a huge amount of money on every console sale, about the same as the cost of a Wii. This meant that Sony needed to have strong follow-on game sales to make up for such huge loses. However, because the console was so difficult to develop for they struggled with game availability for a long time. Eventually these factors started to become less of a problem. Multi-platform game engines eventually matured sufficiently to where it wasn't a huge problem to target PS3/360/PC releases for most games, and that has helped PS3's game library tremendously, in addition to a very small handful of excellent exclusive titles (such as Little Big Planet, Heavy Rain, etc.) Also, eventually Sony managed to reduce the hardware cost of the PS3 down to a point where they weren't bleeding money on each sale so horrifically. However, despite all of this improvement it's questionable whether the PS3 has made a total profit for Sony overall, and if it has it's likely not very large. Worse yet, a lot of Sony's big efforts such as the playstation network and the Sony Move have not taken off and not garnered much enthusiasm in the market. And then we get to the 360. This console certainly has its fair share of problems and debacles. At launch it was definitely sold at a loss to the company. It struggled with reliability problems and expensive warranty extensions through many of the early hardware iterations. And sales in Japan have always been weak. But, somehow it managed to come out ahead. The 360 never sold at as much of a loss as the PS3 and it didn't take long for them to get to a point where they reduced hardware costs enough to make a profit on console sales. Even with the expensive $1 billion warranty extension their balance sheet on pure hardware alone is far, far better than Sony's, which means that MS actually needs to sell fewer games per console to come out ahead in total profit. As it turns out, people who own 360s are far more active gamers than people who own other consoles. They play for more hours per month, and they spend more money on games. Of all of the consoles currently on store shelves, the 360 has the highest multiple of average number of follow-on game purchases per console. But it doesn't stop there. The Kinect add-on has been one of the most popular consumer electronics devices in history. Also, whereas every major competing online multiplayer service is offered for free (Steam, Origin, PSN), Microsoft's Xbox Live Gold service costs money. On its own it has subscription volume and costs similar to the most successful MMOs in existence (such as WoW). That's a testament to the sheer volume of people who think that Microsoft's service offering is valuable enough to pay cold hard cash for, but it also, of course, goes straight to Microsoft's bottom line, to the tune of around a billion dollars per year. And because it's a digital service the development costs are fairly low. But wait, there's more. In addition to game sales, xbox players are also more likely to purchase DLC packs and other digital content such as xbox live arcade games. Again the incremental costs on these digital goods are fairly low so Microsoft (and the game publishers) make a much higher margin on them. What does this all mean? Several things. First, in total Microsoft has been far better at consistently extracting significant profits from the gaming market over the lifetime of the current console generation. Second, Microsoft has far more momentum in terms of game sales and customer loyalty and enthusiasm than the other console players. Third, Microsoft is making far more headway than other console makers in earning revenue from digital goods and services, where the profit margins are the highest. Fourth, many game makers find that they make a lot more money from the xbox versions of their products, which helps ensure that exclusive games that aren't on the xbox are a rarity. And this is precisely why this year we will see all 3 companies release new consoles, and why Nintendo has already done so. Because without a significant disruption in the status quo the result is that the xbox will continue to outpace everyone else, and continue to gobble up more and more market share and gaming revenue. Nintendo is trying to give themselves a chance to stay relevant. And Sony is trying to put themselves on a new footing. And Microsoft is trying to hold onto what they have or extend their lead. Note that I intentionally left out a lot of complicating elements such as competition from PC and mobile/tablet gaming, introduction of new console makers, etc. That may play a role in the future but it hasn't played a significant role in the fight between the different home consoles so far.

Benferhat 14y ago

I hate the Xbox 360 because they make it so hard to stream video to it. What the hell, Microsoft? The PS3 is a great DLNA renderer right out of the box.

teamonkey 14y ago

It seems obvious to me that the next Xbox will support small developers via some form of the Windows App Store. No point having a unified App Store if that wasn't to be the case. I feel there's a strong chance that many existing apps will Just Work on the next Xbox.

gfodor 14y ago

Mark my words in 5 years time it will be Valve and Apple in the living room. Sony, MS, and yes, for real this time, Nintendo are done. The wave has crested and basically Samsung and Google are the only other companies who are trying to ride it.

sunjain 14y ago

Game consoles are irrelevant from point of view of gaining/retaining big chunk of consumer market. There is a reason why Apple avoided this market (instead of focussing on music, then phone and of course tablet), while Microsoft was busy competing with Sonys and Ninentendos in early formative years of Xbox. In less than five years, this whole game console thing will be a feature in TV/tablet etc.

mkent 14y ago

Having recently fired it up again the xbox experience (outside of xbla) remains decidedly old school: - You still need the correct dvd inserted to play. - You can't turn the xbox off and expect it to save your progress. - Some games are tightly integrated with xbox live, good luck not paying for it. - It takes forever between the xbox boot time, initial game load time, copyright notices, in game menus, and save game load time to actually start enjoying a game. - Installing games to the hard drive for a slight load time bump is very, very slow. Since picking one up I've been really spoiled by the ipad mini. Just pick it up and play, don't sweat the details.

ChrisNorstrom 14y ago

I have heard people still there arguing that the transition of the brand from hardcore gamers to casual users and tv-uses was an intentional and crafted success. It was not. It was an accident Oh common man, YES it was intentional. MS worked its ass off on transitioning to casual users. Changing the ENTIRE UI, the addition of Avatars (MS's version of Nintendo's Miis), the advertising and marketing.

natbro 14y ago
i'm honestly not sure if you're being sarcastic or not. if you are: heh, good one. if you're not: there's nothing wrong with putting some of your wood behind encouraging casual gaming and expanding your market, but putting ALL of your wood behind it? what else did they get accomplished in this time period? not enough other things if you take a look at how many people and how much money was being spent on R&D in that division.

jpxxx 14y ago

The console industry used to sell high-end wedding cakes. Now they sell wedding cakes, some sheet cakes, and occasionally a pre-boxed slice if there are leftovers. These are your only options for snacking in the living room. You order a wedding cake, go pick it up in a few days, and hope it tastes good. They are about to find out what happens when piping hot cookies are hand-delivered in 30 seconds or less to the living room, for free. The only thing Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo have going for them right now is that the iPhone and iPad are drawing away virtually all of Apple's not-inconsiderable attention. Here's how it will work: Apple will release a $99 controller. It'll look like a SNES controller mated with an iPhone 3GS: 4" standard-resolution multitouch screen, D-pad, four buttons, two shoulder buttons, and a Lightning port. (Inside is NOBODY CARES. gyro, bluetooth, Wifi, iOS SOC, battery.) And, naturally, it will be the least embarrassing looking item in your living room. You'll take it out of the box, type in your Wifi password, log in to iCloud, and THAT IS IT. The Apple TV (of which there are millions already installed) leaps into action. All the plumbing is silently set up, the App Store icon appears, a free showpiece game immediately offers to install itself, and Apple connects a half billion users to the television overnight. Most of the Wii U's best controller ideas are co-opted, the overall controller complexity is a scant third of anyone else's, it retains all the power of touch controls, it requires no complicated setup whatsoever, all the game state is cloud-backed, dozens of touch-resistant game genres suddenly find a home in the lowest-walled garden of any shipping console, customers can add more controllers if desired, and the whole panoply of mobile software can infiltrate the last screen standing. The Apple TV is a freaking trojan horse, if Apple wants it to be. Nobody else has the UX to stave them off, or the ability to hit the price points Apple can, or their sheer distribution power, or their sheer brand power, or anything. Free cookies. Not nut-and-raisin filled wedding cakes. Which one is your kid going to reach for?

pfisch 14y ago
I think you are sort of right. I think that maybe apple's console entry could become a bastion of $1, low budget casual games. Not because it couldn't handle the hardcore games market, but because the store will be setup with the same problem all apple stores have of low visibility and freemium garbage dominating the storefront. Also a ton of devs will port their already existing casual freemium stuff to this device. This is partially Apple's fault, but largely it is a problem of the wider market that Apple hits. They hit a ton of non-gamers with their products and those people then use the store and push farmville/zynga poker garbage to the top. Apple could address this with their store but I doubt they will. If they wanted to they already would have by now. The other issue is that Apple products generally sacrifice usability for style, and in this instance that will probably mean a controller with no real buttons or something ridiculous in that vein. This is fine and it will probably be successful, but it is not even going to be the same market that the xbox, steam box, or ps4 are hitting.

ern 14y ago

To add to OP's usability gripes, as a new Xbox owner (bought it over Christmas) with a grand total of 4 bundled games and a Kinect: Kinect menu interaction needs to be improved. Kinect Adventures has it right for its age group, showing a full mirror image of the user on its menus, but Kinect Sports is a mess of deeply nested menus, which my 4 year old, who has been able to navigate an iPad since age 2, can't get right yet. Dance Central uses an un-intuitive swipe from right-to-left, that took a while for me to figure out. I suppose controllerless UX is still in its infancy, but still... Then we get to the sign in system: the sign-in, sign-out is very confusing, and in Kinect Sports, almost useless - I never know who the second player is going to be. I also have a very weak mental model of how Kinect ID facial recognition works -at what point are you signed into a game? I still don't really understand XBox Live vs XBox Live Gold. Why should I subscribe for utility apps I already have, or to use a clunky web browser? Oh yes, and no NTFS support, on a Microsoft platform.

VLM 14y ago
Ern I believe we purchased the same xbox package deal for christmas. My pet peeve WRT kinect is the agony I feel when I have to wave like a lunatic 25 times for 2-3 minutes to navigate a simple menu of songs when there's a perfectly good hand controller that could have done what I want in seconds. One undiscussed economic effect is free trial/demo games and their impact on the market. Before I tried the demos with the kids, I'm planning on getting kinectimals and not getting minecraft... after the demos its intensely the other way around.

pkmays 14y ago

Developing for the console seems really harsh. Somewhat related, an indie company managed to get a fighting game out on PSN and XBLA. It just got an update on PS3, but it can't get updated for Xbox because the patch is bigger than 4MB. [1] Keep in mind, these are free updates that fix bugs and stability issues, not paid DLC. Even so, patching is really, really expensive. [2] [1] http://shoryuken.com/2013/01/08/skullgirls-xbox-360-patch-delayed-due-to-size-limitations-four-to-five-dlc-characters-originally-planned/ http://shoryuken.com/2013/01/08/skullgirls-xbox-360-patch-de... [2] http://kotaku.com/5884842/wait-it-costs-40000-to-patch-a-console-game http://kotaku.com/5884842/wait-it-costs-40000-to-patch-a-con...

fmischel 14y ago

I think it's interesting that to note that the article stated a 60% YOY decline even though their stock price hasn't reflected this. For the past three years the stock has stayed relatively within the same levels. But nonetheless a very interesting post.