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CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York
- pamcake 2mo agoSo the CFTC frames Kalshi as a financial derivatives exchange for the financial instrument category of event contracts, dismissing NYs characterization of it as a gambling/betting platform. Interesting.
- cyanydeez 2mo agono, it frames it as a grift economy subsidy.
- pdonis 2mo agoWhat exactly is the difference between a financial derivatives exchange and a gambling platform? Both involve placing bets on uncertain future outcomes.
- morkalork 2mo agoOne is when the president's son is a strategic advisor to the company and the other is a gambling platform
- skillina 2mo agoTraditional derivatives can be used to trade the risk that would already exist with or without the existence of the derivatives market. Prediction markets create risk out of thin air.
- charcircuit 2mo agoDo you think insurance markets create risk out of thin air too?
- dcrazy 2mo agoInsurance protects life and property (including future income). Until you wagered $100 on the Knicks winning, none of your property was threatened by them losing.
- skillina 2mo agoOf course not. If a building exists, there is a risk it burns down. Insurance just moves that risk around. The only way to eliminate the risk is to not build anything anywhere.
- charcircuit 2mo agoSo what would be the difference between buying insurance against downtime of a service you depend on (eg. Cloudflare) vs making a bet on the prediction market that there will be downtime? Even without these markets there is risk that the service goes down. The existence of the prediction market doesn't cause it to be possible.
- wredcoll 2mo agoThere is no risk to me if the rockets lose their next game. Unless I bet $100 on them winning, then a risk appears.
- usehackernews 2mo agoIf you’re a Houston bar owner dependent on post game traffic, there would be risk of them losing. There are a thousand of exchanges that have no risk on my life, but that doesn’t mean they don’t impact others.
- dcrazy 2mo agoA bar here in SF made local news for using Kalshi for just this purpose: https://sfstandard.com/2026/07/06/san-francisco-world-cup-kalshi-promotion/ https://sfstandard.com/2026/07/06/san-francisco-world-cup-ka... In a similar vein, companies that run skill competitions (hole-in-one prizes, half-court shots, etc.) can and regularly do buy insurance on those events. Under this theory, Kalshi is arguably not trading in commodities, but insurance, which is state-regulated.
- brainwad 2mo agoIf you consider not just money, but utility, then there is already a lot of pre-existing risk that sports derivatives could hedge. Theoretically, fans should short their team to be utility-neutral whether their team wins or loses. However in practice fans tend to double down by adding monetary risk to their pre-existing emotional risk...
- amazingman 2mo agoRegulations, skill, and access.
- brianbest101 2mo ago[dead]
- none_to_remain 2mo agoThe gambling platforms are buddies with Tish James and the state, while the prediction markets are buddies with the CFTC and the feds. That's the important difference in this case
- zug_zug 2mo agoWell my broker (fidelity) requires certain degrees of experience and wealth before allowing certain types of risky trading. Perhaps sports-betting should fall under that category -- e.g. must be an accredited investor.
- Pxtl 2mo agoLaws are for poor people
- decimalenough 2mo agoAm I reading this right? The state of New York wants Kalshi to stop offering prediction gambling, excuse me, "event contracts" in New York, and the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission just ordered Kalshi to keep operating in New York regardless?
- paxys 2mo agoDonald Trump Jr is a “strategic advisor” at Kalshi and was given equity in the company. Hope that helps.
- deleted 2mo ago[deleted]
- nickff 2mo agoHere is a link to a post about the State of New York's case: https://www.shb.com/intelligence/newsletters/securities-litigation-client-alert/2026/schleppenbach-sdny-kalshi-ruling https://www.shb.com/intelligence/newsletters/securities-liti... I am not sure about how the state regulation of betting will turn out (though I would have guessed that it is indeed pre-empted), but the nationwide injunction seems shaky given Trump v Casa: https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/24pdf/24a884_8n59.pdf https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/24pdf/24a884_8n59.pdf
- wahern 2mo agoI don't think Casa applies here. A nationwide injunction is not the same thing as a universal injunction. A universal injunction benefits non-parties to a case. But if an injunction, especially a TRO, requires nationwide effect to protect the interests of NY, who is a party, then that's fine. Also note that Kalshi is based in NYC, AFAIU; it's not a situation of a state court trying to control the out-of-state actions of a foreign company merely doing business in NY.
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- denkmoon 2mo agoAn order to _continue_ operation? Has that ever happened before?
- msandford 2mo agoIf you're a market maker? It's the whole job. They're Federally regulated to do precisely that.
- selectively 2mo ago[dead]
- akerl_ 2mo agoIt's not an order to Kalshi to continue operations. They overrode the TRO from the state court. The target of the order is the state court / executive, essentially saying "You cannot halt Kalshi's operations via the TRO".
- impish9208 2mo agoAmericans’ continued ability to gamble, err…, trade multi-leg parlays is a matter of national security!
- cindyllm 2mo ago[dead]
- compass_copium 2mo ago[flagged]
- mavbo 2mo agoFriends in high places are worth their weight in gold. Anyone want to bet on how much they weigh?
- roughly 2mo agoI mean, officially 225, but does anyone believe that? (Which is a bit over $15M at today’s spot prices, by the by)
- puildupO 2mo ago[dead]
- anadem 2mo agoFirefox says "Error Code: SEC_ERROR_UNKNOWN_ISSUER" for that CFTC link (untrusted certificate issued by Avast in Prague) and won't open the site
- akerl_ 2mo agoNot seeing that here; is your connection being MITM'd? Issuer I'm seeing is Sectigo Public Server Authentication CA OV R36. Avast is nominally an AV/VPN company; are you running their tooling on your machine?
- Bender 2mo agoThe cert I am seeing: Testing via IPv4: IPv4 (2 address(es)): 104.18.25.94 104.18.24.94 subject : C=US, ST=District of Columbia, O=Commodity Futures Trading Commission, CN=www.cftc.gov issuer : C=GB, O=Sectigo Limited, CN=Sectigo Public Server Authentication CA OV R36 SAN : DNS:www.cftc.gov, DNS:accountcreation.cftc.gov, DNS:cftc.gov, DNS:smartcheck.gov, DNS:whistleblower.gov, DNS:www.smartcheck.gov, DNS:www.whistleblower.gov sha1 : 42:AC:E2:34:10:93:10:9B:0E:45:6E:BC:A9:D5:B8:7D:C4:8B:BE:A5 sha256 : E5:C9:F2:9F:4E:6C:30:51:AA:6B:63:AD:AD:F9:58:A4:E0:3E:7A:32:E9:2C:AB:8D:ED:4F:24:4D:D6:F0:DE:E8 validity : Oct 23 00:00:00 2025 GMT -> Nov 1 23:59:59 2026 GMT (81 days left) tls : TLSv1.3 / Verify return code: 0 (ok) Are you seeing that too? This [1] is the function I am using. Claude's Improved version over my old chicken scratch. Qualys Results [2] for www.cftc.gov Cloudflare in front of Drupal 11 [1] - https://nochan.net/b/Text-Crap/function_fingerprint2.sh https://nochan.net/b/Text-Crap/function_fingerprint2.sh [2] - https://www.ssllabs.com/ssltest/analyze.html?d=www.cftc.gov&latest https://www.ssllabs.com/ssltest/analyze.html?d=www.cftc.gov&...
- akerl_ 2mo agoEDIT: see DannyBee's comment below ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49266746 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49266746 ). It does look like the CFTC has extrapolated the "nationwide" out of either some novel interpretation of the filing or just entirely fabricated it as their justification for their action. I've got no love for Kalshi, but "orders Kalshi to continue operate in New York" doesn't seem to be present anywhere in the actual release. The article presents the sequence of events as: 1. The State of NY files a lawsuit against Kalshi under the theory that it can be regulated by state gambling laws. 2. The State of NY files for a temporary restraining order requiring Kalshi to halt trading nationally, not just in NY. 3. Kalshi reaches out to the CFTC to claim that NY doesn't have the authority to regulate interstate commerce. 4. The CFTC agrees and uses their authority to override the TRO. That seems pretty aligned with how interstate commerce is regulated and managed in the US.
- Avicebron 2mo agoI think the question is whether or not this is damaging to the case that the Kalshi and others could be regulated state by state..
- akerl_ 2mo agoI (unfortunately) think that the NY AG screwed up our opportunity to press that question by aiming nationally. The CFTC got to skip that and just shut down the national TRO. I'd love to see another state push for a state-specific restriction and see how that plays out.
- deleted 2mo ago[deleted]
- DannyBee 2mo agoExcept they haven't, because they did not request national relief. They requested state-specific relief.
- 2mo ago
- georgemcbay 2mo agoWait, so all that Republican talk of support for state's rights was really just all about the racism this whole time? Shocker.
- dmix 2mo agoIt's disingenuous to pretend the current US admin prioritizes state rights or separation of powers. They have very explicitly pushed an ideology of unitary power and maximizing their control of federal agencies over congress and state powers.
- georgemcbay 2mo agoThe Republicans don't just control the executive, they also control both chambers of Congress (and, lets be real, the Supreme Court as well). The fact that they don't act like it and just allow the executive to do whatever it wants doesn't absolve them of responsibility for what the executive does.
- deleted 2mo ago[deleted]
- tsimionescu 2mo agoThat's exactly the point, yes - the Republicans have always claimed to be the party of Small Government and of States Rights while in the opposition, but in reality when they are in power they immediately act to expand federal powers, both over the states that they don't like and overall in the economy and day to day life.
- quink 2mo agoJust listen to the overwhelming silence from the “states’ rights” crowd.
- brink 2mo agoThis has little to do with NY governing NY. NY was attempting to govern Kalshi in other states, which it doesn't have the authority to do.
- sigmarule 2mo agoFalse: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49266746 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49266746
- anigbrowl 2mo agoLegal filings by the State of New York indicate that this was not in fact the case and they were asking Kalshi to halt offering their product to the public in the state of NY only.
- freejazz 2mo ago[flagged]
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- waterheater 2mo agoMost people invoke the "states' rights" platitude when the federal government oversteps on constitutional matters that haven't been specifically legislated. In this case, Congress already passed a law regulating these activities, and it seems pretty clear-cut that Kalshi engages in interstate commerce, so New York will likely lose if this gets to the Supreme Court. That's not to say I think event prediction markets are good. In fact, I think they should be banned. That doesn't change my analysis of the current situation.
- wredcoll 2mo ago
- selectively 2mo ago[dead]
- Terr_ 2mo ago> said Chairman Michael S. Selig. “Congress did not intend for derivatives exchanges to be regulated under a patchwork of state gaming laws. Ah yes, "derivatives" which are "not intended to fall under gaming laws" such as... *checks Kalshi website* 58 million dollars riding on which team is the 2027 NFL champion. Oh yeah, totally a financial derivative there, not related to gambling at all. *sigh*
- xp84 2mo agoELI5 why it's better for you to place a $10,000 bet that, say, GOOG falls below $300 by February 2028, than to bet the same that the Pats win the Super Bowl? They're both gambling.
- subtlejellyfish 2mo agoThere's a legitimate, non-gambling use case: hedging against your existing position in GOOG. There's no equivalent instrument for sports.
- BLKNSLVR 2mo agoThat sounds _exactly_ like a gambling use case.
- subtlejellyfish 2mo agoOnly if you're buying the options naked. If I'm holding GOOG shares, I can buy puts to protect my downside risk (that's the hedge).
- triceratops 2mo ago> There's no equivalent instrument for sports. Options on the sports team's parent company. I mean you want to hedge against financial losses due to on-field performance but also commercial performance, right? What is the utility of hedging purely against on-field performance?
- deleted 2mo ago[deleted]
- xp84 2mo agoIt was never more virtuous to be options-trading GME shares on Robinhood than gambling at the dog track or betting on basketball games. The only reason some regulators are going after Kalshi or Polymarket is that the casino owners are lining these particular politicians' pockets more than the futures trading companies are. I actually am not opinionated on it other than all kinds of gambling are basically the same -- and that includes a lot of the ways stock market is used in practice. I do admit gambling addiction is a real thing and that this new super convenient and easy and legal option incrementally brings more people into that world of pain. But I also think it's stupid to ban gambling like they did with alcohol in the last century. It'll just put more control in the hands of the mob. The mob. There's an organization that I bet is also eagerly lining the pockets of these "kill Kalshi" regulators.
- asddubs 2mo agoI think you are right that it's all gambling. Kalshi seems more predatory in how it targets people. Perhaps advertising gambling in any way should be outlawed.
- wredcoll 2mo agoI agree with you that gambling on options via Robinhood is not great, but it at least theoretically has value to society and has a long history of being used by slightly more responsible entities which makes it harder to just, say, ban it out right. Betting on the superbowl winner is none of that.
- unethical_ban 2mo agoWrong. Totally. Options on GME and win/loss bets on basketball and dog racing are not the same as the level of prop bets and betting on things occuring. Totally completely wrong.
- yieldcrv 2mo agophenomenal and I want to address snarky comments here the “states rights” crowd has always used laws passed by Congress, which the CEA has been. other examples such as a Supreme Court overruling itself made a national regulation fall back to the states solely because Congress has not and has never passed a law on the topic, there is insufficient consensus on proposed laws so those topics will remain at the states in this case, the actual argument is that the case should be heard by the courts at all, and NY wanted to halt operations WHILE it was heard by the courts. CFTC overruled the pre-verdict halting and finally, the courts of course will likely not result in anything, as the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution is clear that federal law is supreme when there is a conflict, and the CFTC chooses to leverage that federal government can always choose to ignore a state law, as it does in some markets
- arjie 2mo agoThis seems correct, even though I think it's unfortunate that these prediction markets are ruining so many people's lives. > In the lawsuit, filed on July 31, New York seeks a temporary restraining order prohibiting KalshiEX, LLC from offering all event contracts nationwide and more than $36 billion in damages. This seems naturally the territory of the CFTC. They have exclusive right to regulate futures and derivatives contracts, which Congress handed them. Also, it seems straightforwardly anti-commerce-clause to allow NY to prohibit Kalshi from offering these contracts nationwide.
- antasvara 2mo ago[dead]
- amanaplanacanal 2mo agoYour quote is what the CFTC is claiming, not what NY is actually asking for. Your mistake is trusting that a federal agency will tell the truth when the president or his family has a financial interest. Hint: they will not.
- high-priest 2mo ago[flagged]
- SpicyLemonZest 2mo agoI hope the Kalshi executives remember that New York state police do not report to the CFTC and are not bound by its orders!
- ok123456 2mo agoCan't New York go after payment processors and stop anyone from paying them money or people cashing out?
- petesergeant 2mo agoI assume interstate commerce laws?
- ok123456 2mo agoHow is it interstate commerce if both the banks and the customer have a physical nexus in New York? The fact that it's bookmaking with an app in New York still makes it bookmaking in New York.
- rgmerk 2mo agoI'm with the state of NY on the merits here. They're basically BetFair, and they should be subject to regulation like it.
- EGreg 2mo ago“New York intends to make event contract derivatives waste away under its iron curtain of state gaming laws before the courts get the chance to issue final rulings,” said Chairman Michael S. Selig. President Donald J. Trump nominated Michael S. Selig to serve as the 16th Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on October 27, 2025. The U.S. Senate confirmed him on December 18, 2025, and he was sworn into office on December 22, 2025. This is the time for crypto projects to enjoy Federal protection.
- stock_toaster 2mo agoWith “Chevron Deference” struck down, I assume this means the courts will get to decide if it is in fact gambling or not?
- plorg 2mo agoLaughable excuse for a country that will declare a gambling company systemically important to the economy.
- 1vuio0pswjnm7 2mo agoHere is something to bet on https://www.ncsl.org/financial-services/prediction-markets-2026-state-legislation https://www.ncsl.org/financial-services/prediction-markets-2... Would Kalshi allow people to bet on whether Kalshi will be banned in a particular state
- dzonga 2mo agoeveryone's anger is warranted. does CTFC have mandate to enforce things nationally - yeah. Does NY have a mandate to stop thing nationwide NO. however the murkiness with the whole thing is about corruption and having friends, sons of the president as your backers etc - proper procedures are no longer followed.
- stfarm 2mo ago[flagged]