6 ms·

China begins producing advanced chipmaking deep-ultraviolet lithography machines

110 points by ck2 2mo ago

ck2 2mo ago
nvidia clone in next year or two? btw photo on that article is actually intel at Oregon
AsyncBanana 2mo ago
China is still far behind modern lithography. It took ASML almost 2 decades to get from immersion DUV (and EUV prototypes) to commercial EUV machines.
- Reptur 2mo ago
  True but also catching up to an existing tech is a much different game than creating it from scratch. Hiring people who have the right knowledge can speed that up.
  - seanmcdirmid 2mo ago
    The core stuff is under heavy lock and key. I’m not sure China can hire people that know the whole process, let alone the bits and pieces they can’t easily figure out on their own. The tech seems to have been locked down by a few western countries, and it’s hard to find any holes in their secrecy.
    - LIMEVINCE 2mo ago
      I'm not sure how true this is but I've read in other threads that ASML employs many Chinese engineers, and also read other news that the Chinese state is paying engineers working abroad at companies like ASML alluring salaries to get them to work back home.
      - seanmcdirmid 2mo ago
        You can employ as many engineers as you want but if you compartilize them enough and separate key processes to a very small group of people (Dutch citizens or whatever, maybe military), you can actually protect the process as a whole. It’s not like a nuclear bomb that even high school students can even figure out how to make without much help.
        don_esteban 2mo ago
        The thing is that an expert in the area does not need the detailed how-to guide/complete description of the process. Few hints here and there can help to get over the key hurdles, with most other steps either a general knowledge for the experts, or analogues can be independently developed without too much trouble. Yes, the result is not the same, but actually developing indigenous expertise is the key required component anyway,
        seanmcdirmid 2mo ago
        China has a lot of bits and pieces of process but they are spending time to figure out how to put them together along with a few key locked up secrets that you just can’t get with smarts alone. They will definitely get there, but don’t be surprised if they come up with a very different solution because being derivative just wasn’t an option
    - the_sleaze_ 2mo ago
      Espionage
      - jona-f 2mo ago
        Nah, you watch too many movies, they openly hired former asml employees.
        the_sleaze_ 2mo ago
        It's only a google away friend. > https://dominotheory.com/taiwan-issues-first-national-security-indictment-for-tsmc-leak-to-china/ https://dominotheory.com/taiwan-issues-first-national-securi...
- sleepyguy 2mo ago
  This, these news organizations have no f'n clue. China this, China that, it's all part of the 10 billion China spends on b.s to feed the Americans that they are behind or they are useless and that they don't stand a chance.... China is on the verge of collapse walking the razors edge.
  - sumanthvepa 2mo ago
    Yes. China is behind on some of the crucial technology that gives the West its advantage, but this framing that the country is on the verge of collapse is just not true. Also recreating a know technology usually takes much less time even if you don't have access to the underlying tech.
  - anigbrowl 2mo ago
    Schrödinger's economy https://thediplomat.com/2015/03/why-do-people-keep-predicting-chinas-collapse/ https://thediplomat.com/2015/03/why-do-people-keep-predictin...
    - sleepyguy 2mo ago
      [flagged]
      - defrost 2mo ago
        ^^Please don't do this^^ https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
        sleepyguy 2mo ago
        Do you think they aren't here? It needs to be pointed out, so folks are aware.
        defrost 2mo ago
        Did you read the guidelines and grasp the intent? Do you think HN users are unable to form their own opinions? Would the forum be better if every comment came with a ship's hull infestation of remora opinions as to who is or isn't in someone's opinion a paedophile, an AI booster, a twat, a tool, a russian tankie, or simply just Tasmanian? What would be far better would be a comment of substance addressing the points made within a comment rather than ankle deep shallow name calling, unsubstantiated allegations, etc. In short, so what if someone is paid by China to promote certain viewpoints; address the issues rather than the dull fact that almost everybody here is either paid by someone or has a strong financial incentive toward something.
- _ink_ 2mo ago
  But isn't it easier to copy some existing approach than to create it from a green field? ASML tech is presumably highly protected, but China is also very good in spying, hacking etc.
  - HWR_14 2mo ago
    Yes. But it's not as simple as just having access to ASML's ip. They have exclusive rights to all the components and inputs, which are also protected and are also hard to make. It's a whole system that China needs to duplicate.
  - seanmcdirmid 2mo ago
    This stuff is really hard to copy. China basically had to put in all the cold era materials research along with getting up to speed on current tech, from scratch. They were/are always going to catch up because they have the resources to, but there are no shortcuts.
    - t-writescode 2mo ago
      The patent system is very strong evidence that there are shortcuts. So many that we have laws designed to protect and incentivize version 1. Sure, there’s some hard lessons along the way; but far, far, far fewer than figuring it out in the first place. And this misplaced assumption about how China won’t be able to innovate when standing on the shoulders of giants (with you saying ‘are always going to catch up’) looks only at the last 100 years and forgets the millenia before it. The West is not magically superior.
      - seanmcdirmid 2mo ago
        There are just some things that China can’t access and they have to reinvent on their own. Like 50 years of intensive materials research that is locked away in a safe and access is heavily restricted. Yes, China could innovate by standing on the shoulders of giants if they had access to the giants, they simply don’t have access.
- xiphias2 2mo ago
  Sure, and spent most of it experimenting with something nobody knew would work in production or not, and needed a lots of breakthrough ideas that are now known as the machines exist.
- zelphirkalt 2mo ago
  OK, China will do it in 5 years then.
oliculipolicula 2mo ago
ASML dropped; it used to be the undisputed leader of immersion DUV Interesting in so many ways that theinfo kept the company anon but Reuters exposed it (allegedly) Aside: what we know for sure is that Chinese are catching up to Japanese in putting dad-style puns in their brands https://www.hoshinocoffee.com/ https://www.hoshinocoffee.com/
- totetsu 2mo ago
  do you mean like Xīn Kǎilái 新凯来 "new triumph" could also sound like 芯凯来 "chip triumph" ?
brcmthrowaway 2mo ago
How does this compare to EUV?
- bob1029 2mo ago
  It's about 14x worse if you just look at the wavelength of light.
bobjordan 2mo ago
After living and working in China 10yrs and fundamentally experiencing the growth rate and culture, it's been a bit horrifying to watch the Western world consistently decide withholding tech from China and giving them no other option but develop their own tech, is a good idea. They are the ultimate long-term planners and I have no doubt the existing gaps will be relatively short lived before China closes them.
- gedy 2mo ago
  I don't see how the alternatives ends any differently? We manufacture in China, they copy the products with lower margins then western companies can't compete on price.
  - sudosysgen 2mo ago
    The steelman of the argument is that, due to legacy in technology and comparative advantage, unless they expect a serious supply chain tech, many core technologies will be too expensive to duplicate for China and so there will be areas where they will not advance. There is some amount of evidence that was true for lithography, they did not seem to be making much progress until they were forced to, and there didn't seem to be enough capital available in China to catch up. Of course, the extent to which they was true and for how long it would be true is up for debate, but it's not a prima facie foregone conclusion
    - SanjayMehta 2mo ago
      They have the entire resources of their state available for funding. They will catch up and pass the West. Take nuclear weapons: even Pakistan and North Korea were able to catch up.
      - defrost 2mo ago
        Poor examples. Pakistan with a lot of Saudi backing, NK with a lot of Chinese backing. That aside, China will master chip making at bleeding edge global scale, just as it did with EVs and rare earth processing, etc.
m00dy 2mo ago
Unpopular opinion: if you do not want to pay $500 a month for Claude Max, maybe let China keep pushing engineering optimization. The U.S. and China should compete.
- voakbasda 2mo ago
  The US does not want to compete with China. There’s no profit in it when compared to the riches available from having a captive marketplace.
  - thesmtsolver2 2mo ago
    Doesn’t China heavily restrict competition in its domestic markets? Probably only North Korea is worse. China is one of the most restrictive countries but expects full access to US market behaving like a US state or territory in its claims to US domestic markets lol. Last time I checked, China is not a US province or territory but maybe that is the state of affairs China aspires to in the long term with Trump looking to add a new state.
    - vachina 2mo ago
      American companies are banned the same reason TikTok and Huawei is banned in the US. Nobody wants spy apparatuses operating within their shore. Also are you going to simply ignore the fact that Tesla, Apple et. al. are operating just fine in China?
      - esjeon 2mo ago
        Most of the time, the domestic market in China is indirectly controlled through political and social influence, not through policy. It's not a fair market at all.
      - thesmtsolver2 2mo ago
        Look up when American companies got banned and when TikTok and Huawei got banned. American companies have been banned decades earlier. > Also are you going to simply ignore the fact that Tesla, Apple et. al. are operating just fine in China? Also, are you and the other commenter ignoring the fact, thousands to millions of companies from China sell in the US? Temu and Shein are still free to sell forced labor lead-infused goods. Lenovo still works. So do millions of tiny Chinese brands on Amazon. You ignored that Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp are completely banned in China. Google Search, YouTube, Gmail, and Google Maps are completely unavailable in mainland China TikTok wasn't banned (but had to restructure) and RedNote operates without any changes. > Tesla, Apple et. al. are operating just fine in China Yeah, and both companies manufacture heavily within China
try-working 2mo ago
All of this can be traced back to the 2018 blacklisting of ZTE, and the continued willful ignorance of China's capabilities, and of the history of industrialization and technological progress.
digitalsurgeonz 2mo ago
[flagged]
- computerdork 2mo ago
  Think for the most part the opposite is being said? That the Chinese will eventually develop their own DUV and EUV technology. Yeah, no one in with decent knowledge of tech would think a cutting edge nation like China couldn't figure this out.
- edg5000 2mo ago
  Yes, that's my read as well.
- rixed 2mo ago
  Also: "Oh my god some economic development!?! We need urgently to think of a way to hamper it!"
SadErn 2mo ago
When China eventually catches up on conventional lithography, the goalposts will simply shift to silicon photonics and optical logic, a transition DARPA laid the publicly visible groundwork for decades ago through programs like POEM and PIPES while keeping the mature implementations strictly classified until needed.
- segfault99 2mo ago
  Are these tippy top-secret Skunkworks Final Boss Wunderwaffen with you in the room right now? More and more there seems to be some wishful thinking that the USA has another hidden generation of SR-71 or Stealth tech type surprises squirrelled away for a rainy day. Find this hard to believe when the best brains of the generation got hoovered up by hedge funds, click merchants, and now token slingers. Is there anything to stop the Chinese doing a silicon photonics end run independent of cracking EUV at scale? Or is getting EUV right first on the critical path? This part is a genuine question.
  - nunez 2mo ago
    There are a lot of very very very smart people working in defense. Gov doesn't pay the best but the benefits are unmatched.
    - deleted 2mo ago
      [deleted]
    - kungito 2mo ago
      afaik no one is working in defence anymore; now they are working in war
      - nunez 2mo ago
        congress still hasn't approved the name change
- don_esteban 2mo ago
  Yeah, and Chinese (before that: Japanese) cars will always be crap. Times change, believing in your never ending superiority is foolish.
truthbe 2mo ago
Ultimately a win for the consumer, China does not tend to ban technology as a weapon
- gpt5 2mo ago
  Let's not act like China doesn't use export controls for their geopolitical desires. "China halts rare-earth exports to Japan after Japan detains a Chinese fishing-boat captain near disputed islands" [1]. "China suspends natural-sand exports to Taiwan following Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 visit to Taipei" [2]. "China bans exports of gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard materials to the United States in retaliation for new U.S. semiconductor restrictions" [3]. "China restricts exports of dual-use goods to U.S. defense companies in response to U.S. sanctions on Chinese firms" [4]. "China bans exports of dual-use goods that could strengthen Japan’s military following tensions over Taiwan" [5]. [1] [https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/revisiting-china-japan-rare-earths-dispute-2010 https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/revisiting-china-japan-rare-e...](https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/revisiting-china-japan-rare-earths-dispute-2010 https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/revisiting-china-japan-rare-e...) [2] [https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/economic-sanctions-china-has-imposed-taiwan-over-pelosi-visit-2022-08-03/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/economic-sanction...](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/economic-sanctions-china-has-imposed-taiwan-over-pelosi-visit-2022-08-03/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/economic-sanction...) [3] [https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-bans-exports-gallium-germanium-antimony-us-2024-12-03/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-bans-expor...](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-bans-exports-gallium-germanium-antimony-us-2024-12-03/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-bans-expor...) [4] [https://apnews.com/article/1aebe98718e127365859b0fb0b63d07b https://apnews.com/article/1aebe98718e127365859b0fb0b63d07b](https://apnews.com/article/1aebe98718e127365859b0fb0b63d07b https://apnews.com/article/1aebe98718e127365859b0fb0b63d07b) [5] [https://apnews.com/article/0ea90fa798771c9fb650422ca3e21e09 https://apnews.com/article/0ea90fa798771c9fb650422ca3e21e09](https://apnews.com/article/0ea90fa798771c9fb650422ca3e21e09 https://apnews.com/article/0ea90fa798771c9fb650422ca3e21e09)
  - truthbe 2mo ago
    Who started it?
rich_sasha 2mo ago
It doesn't make me upset that China seems able and determined to catch up on the litography technology - what else are they supposed to do? What does make me upset is that Europe has the technology and seems unwilling or unable to get it's act together and make some chips. China seems to have managed this part too, only without access to the latest chip making technology!
- turgidpost 2mo ago
  The rulers of the West know their days are numbered because of how rapidly China is advancing. Rather than make Europe better, they’re currently looting it. It would not surprise me (though it always seems unlikely, doesn’t it?) that a war breaks out sooner or later, although at China’s scale they know how to quell uprisings the size of any European country without a big fuss. Besides, they’ve already taken over a lot of Europe. So as the saying goes, resistance is futile.
- r_lee 2mo ago
  don't worry, im hearing that von der Leyen and all the EU politicians are hard at work and are about to shake hands and announce another package of funds that will disappear into the void in order to make the EU the "powerhouse" of AI, chips, datacenters, technology, jobs, space, everything. just wait, this time it'll make a dent. lots of hand shaking and smiling for the cameras. it's gonna be a new era
- greatgib 2mo ago
  Sadly the only thing that European leaders are really trying to copy from China is internet censorship and privacy eroding regulations...
toplinesoftsys 2mo ago
I would not be overestimating this achievement, but not underestimating either. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. China had access to the latest EUV tech for some time already, so they had abilities to reverse-engineer that tech. Eventually, the verdict will be clear only after we see actual chips produced using these machine, and when we learn their real yield.
black_13 2mo ago
[dead]
maxglute 2mo ago
Basically game over for compute wars in ~5 years if PRC serious, PRC doesn't need EUV to win compute game. If they hammer DUV tools and commoditize semi (i.e. remove 50-80% margins along every step of supply chain) they will simply be able to sell chips at fraction price of west, even accounting for multi pattern inefficiencies. TCO may still swing leading edge favor depending on infra / energy price, but as far as compute race goes, PRC can hammer power, fabs, DCs all at much lower input costs. The bottleneck has always been semi tooling.
deleted 2mo ago
[deleted]

110 points by ck2 2mo ago

ck2 2mo ago

nvidia clone in next year or two? btw photo on that article is actually intel at Oregon

China is still far behind modern lithography. It took ASML almost 2 decades to get from immersion DUV (and EUV prototypes) to commercial EUV machines.

Reptur 2mo ago
True but also catching up to an existing tech is a much different game than creating it from scratch. Hiring people who have the right knowledge can speed that up.
- seanmcdirmid 2mo ago
  The core stuff is under heavy lock and key. I’m not sure China can hire people that know the whole process, let alone the bits and pieces they can’t easily figure out on their own. The tech seems to have been locked down by a few western countries, and it’s hard to find any holes in their secrecy.
  - LIMEVINCE 2mo ago
    I'm not sure how true this is but I've read in other threads that ASML employs many Chinese engineers, and also read other news that the Chinese state is paying engineers working abroad at companies like ASML alluring salaries to get them to work back home.
    - seanmcdirmid 2mo ago
      You can employ as many engineers as you want but if you compartilize them enough and separate key processes to a very small group of people (Dutch citizens or whatever, maybe military), you can actually protect the process as a whole. It’s not like a nuclear bomb that even high school students can even figure out how to make without much help.
      - don_esteban 2mo ago
        The thing is that an expert in the area does not need the detailed how-to guide/complete description of the process. Few hints here and there can help to get over the key hurdles, with most other steps either a general knowledge for the experts, or analogues can be independently developed without too much trouble. Yes, the result is not the same, but actually developing indigenous expertise is the key required component anyway,
        seanmcdirmid 2mo ago
        China has a lot of bits and pieces of process but they are spending time to figure out how to put them together along with a few key locked up secrets that you just can’t get with smarts alone. They will definitely get there, but don’t be surprised if they come up with a very different solution because being derivative just wasn’t an option
  - the_sleaze_ 2mo ago
    Espionage
    - jona-f 2mo ago
      Nah, you watch too many movies, they openly hired former asml employees.
      - the_sleaze_ 2mo ago
        It's only a google away friend. > https://dominotheory.com/taiwan-issues-first-national-security-indictment-for-tsmc-leak-to-china/ https://dominotheory.com/taiwan-issues-first-national-securi...
sleepyguy 2mo ago
This, these news organizations have no f'n clue. China this, China that, it's all part of the 10 billion China spends on b.s to feed the Americans that they are behind or they are useless and that they don't stand a chance.... China is on the verge of collapse walking the razors edge.
- sumanthvepa 2mo ago
  Yes. China is behind on some of the crucial technology that gives the West its advantage, but this framing that the country is on the verge of collapse is just not true. Also recreating a know technology usually takes much less time even if you don't have access to the underlying tech.
- anigbrowl 2mo ago
  Schrödinger's economy https://thediplomat.com/2015/03/why-do-people-keep-predicting-chinas-collapse/ https://thediplomat.com/2015/03/why-do-people-keep-predictin...
  - sleepyguy 2mo ago
    [flagged]
    - defrost 2mo ago
      ^^Please don't do this^^ https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
      - sleepyguy 2mo ago
        Do you think they aren't here? It needs to be pointed out, so folks are aware.
        defrost 2mo ago
        Did you read the guidelines and grasp the intent? Do you think HN users are unable to form their own opinions? Would the forum be better if every comment came with a ship's hull infestation of remora opinions as to who is or isn't in someone's opinion a paedophile, an AI booster, a twat, a tool, a russian tankie, or simply just Tasmanian? What would be far better would be a comment of substance addressing the points made within a comment rather than ankle deep shallow name calling, unsubstantiated allegations, etc. In short, so what if someone is paid by China to promote certain viewpoints; address the issues rather than the dull fact that almost everybody here is either paid by someone or has a strong financial incentive toward something.
_ink_ 2mo ago
But isn't it easier to copy some existing approach than to create it from a green field? ASML tech is presumably highly protected, but China is also very good in spying, hacking etc.
- HWR_14 2mo ago
  Yes. But it's not as simple as just having access to ASML's ip. They have exclusive rights to all the components and inputs, which are also protected and are also hard to make. It's a whole system that China needs to duplicate.
- seanmcdirmid 2mo ago
  This stuff is really hard to copy. China basically had to put in all the cold era materials research along with getting up to speed on current tech, from scratch. They were/are always going to catch up because they have the resources to, but there are no shortcuts.
  - t-writescode 2mo ago
    The patent system is very strong evidence that there are shortcuts. So many that we have laws designed to protect and incentivize version 1. Sure, there’s some hard lessons along the way; but far, far, far fewer than figuring it out in the first place. And this misplaced assumption about how China won’t be able to innovate when standing on the shoulders of giants (with you saying ‘are always going to catch up’) looks only at the last 100 years and forgets the millenia before it. The West is not magically superior.
    - seanmcdirmid 2mo ago
      There are just some things that China can’t access and they have to reinvent on their own. Like 50 years of intensive materials research that is locked away in a safe and access is heavily restricted. Yes, China could innovate by standing on the shoulders of giants if they had access to the giants, they simply don’t have access.
xiphias2 2mo ago
Sure, and spent most of it experimenting with something nobody knew would work in production or not, and needed a lots of breakthrough ideas that are now known as the machines exist.
zelphirkalt 2mo ago
OK, China will do it in 5 years then.

oliculipolicula 2mo ago

ASML dropped; it used to be the undisputed leader of immersion DUV Interesting in so many ways that theinfo kept the company anon but Reuters exposed it (allegedly) Aside: what we know for sure is that Chinese are catching up to Japanese in putting dad-style puns in their brands https://www.hoshinocoffee.com/ https://www.hoshinocoffee.com/

totetsu 2mo ago
do you mean like Xīn Kǎilái 新凯来 "new triumph" could also sound like 芯凯来 "chip triumph" ?

brcmthrowaway 2mo ago

How does this compare to EUV?

bob1029 2mo ago
It's about 14x worse if you just look at the wavelength of light.

bobjordan 2mo ago

After living and working in China 10yrs and fundamentally experiencing the growth rate and culture, it's been a bit horrifying to watch the Western world consistently decide withholding tech from China and giving them no other option but develop their own tech, is a good idea. They are the ultimate long-term planners and I have no doubt the existing gaps will be relatively short lived before China closes them.

gedy 2mo ago
I don't see how the alternatives ends any differently? We manufacture in China, they copy the products with lower margins then western companies can't compete on price.
- sudosysgen 2mo ago
  The steelman of the argument is that, due to legacy in technology and comparative advantage, unless they expect a serious supply chain tech, many core technologies will be too expensive to duplicate for China and so there will be areas where they will not advance. There is some amount of evidence that was true for lithography, they did not seem to be making much progress until they were forced to, and there didn't seem to be enough capital available in China to catch up. Of course, the extent to which they was true and for how long it would be true is up for debate, but it's not a prima facie foregone conclusion
  - SanjayMehta 2mo ago
    They have the entire resources of their state available for funding. They will catch up and pass the West. Take nuclear weapons: even Pakistan and North Korea were able to catch up.
    - defrost 2mo ago
      Poor examples. Pakistan with a lot of Saudi backing, NK with a lot of Chinese backing. That aside, China will master chip making at bleeding edge global scale, just as it did with EVs and rare earth processing, etc.

m00dy 2mo ago

Unpopular opinion: if you do not want to pay $500 a month for Claude Max, maybe let China keep pushing engineering optimization. The U.S. and China should compete.

voakbasda 2mo ago
The US does not want to compete with China. There’s no profit in it when compared to the riches available from having a captive marketplace.
- thesmtsolver2 2mo ago
  Doesn’t China heavily restrict competition in its domestic markets? Probably only North Korea is worse. China is one of the most restrictive countries but expects full access to US market behaving like a US state or territory in its claims to US domestic markets lol. Last time I checked, China is not a US province or territory but maybe that is the state of affairs China aspires to in the long term with Trump looking to add a new state.
  - vachina 2mo ago
    American companies are banned the same reason TikTok and Huawei is banned in the US. Nobody wants spy apparatuses operating within their shore. Also are you going to simply ignore the fact that Tesla, Apple et. al. are operating just fine in China?
    - esjeon 2mo ago
      Most of the time, the domestic market in China is indirectly controlled through political and social influence, not through policy. It's not a fair market at all.
    - thesmtsolver2 2mo ago
      Look up when American companies got banned and when TikTok and Huawei got banned. American companies have been banned decades earlier. > Also are you going to simply ignore the fact that Tesla, Apple et. al. are operating just fine in China? Also, are you and the other commenter ignoring the fact, thousands to millions of companies from China sell in the US? Temu and Shein are still free to sell forced labor lead-infused goods. Lenovo still works. So do millions of tiny Chinese brands on Amazon. You ignored that Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp are completely banned in China. Google Search, YouTube, Gmail, and Google Maps are completely unavailable in mainland China TikTok wasn't banned (but had to restructure) and RedNote operates without any changes. > Tesla, Apple et. al. are operating just fine in China Yeah, and both companies manufacture heavily within China

try-working 2mo ago

All of this can be traced back to the 2018 blacklisting of ZTE, and the continued willful ignorance of China's capabilities, and of the history of industrialization and technological progress.

digitalsurgeonz 2mo ago

[flagged]

computerdork 2mo ago
Think for the most part the opposite is being said? That the Chinese will eventually develop their own DUV and EUV technology. Yeah, no one in with decent knowledge of tech would think a cutting edge nation like China couldn't figure this out.
edg5000 2mo ago
Yes, that's my read as well.
rixed 2mo ago
Also: "Oh my god some economic development!?! We need urgently to think of a way to hamper it!"

SadErn 2mo ago

When China eventually catches up on conventional lithography, the goalposts will simply shift to silicon photonics and optical logic, a transition DARPA laid the publicly visible groundwork for decades ago through programs like POEM and PIPES while keeping the mature implementations strictly classified until needed.

segfault99 2mo ago
Are these tippy top-secret Skunkworks Final Boss Wunderwaffen with you in the room right now? More and more there seems to be some wishful thinking that the USA has another hidden generation of SR-71 or Stealth tech type surprises squirrelled away for a rainy day. Find this hard to believe when the best brains of the generation got hoovered up by hedge funds, click merchants, and now token slingers. Is there anything to stop the Chinese doing a silicon photonics end run independent of cracking EUV at scale? Or is getting EUV right first on the critical path? This part is a genuine question.
- nunez 2mo ago
  There are a lot of very very very smart people working in defense. Gov doesn't pay the best but the benefits are unmatched.
  - deleted 2mo ago
    [deleted]
  - kungito 2mo ago
    afaik no one is working in defence anymore; now they are working in war
    - nunez 2mo ago
      congress still hasn't approved the name change
don_esteban 2mo ago
Yeah, and Chinese (before that: Japanese) cars will always be crap. Times change, believing in your never ending superiority is foolish.

truthbe 2mo ago

Ultimately a win for the consumer, China does not tend to ban technology as a weapon

gpt5 2mo ago
Let's not act like China doesn't use export controls for their geopolitical desires. "China halts rare-earth exports to Japan after Japan detains a Chinese fishing-boat captain near disputed islands" [1]. "China suspends natural-sand exports to Taiwan following Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 visit to Taipei" [2]. "China bans exports of gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard materials to the United States in retaliation for new U.S. semiconductor restrictions" [3]. "China restricts exports of dual-use goods to U.S. defense companies in response to U.S. sanctions on Chinese firms" [4]. "China bans exports of dual-use goods that could strengthen Japan’s military following tensions over Taiwan" [5]. [1] [https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/revisiting-china-japan-rare-earths-dispute-2010 https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/revisiting-china-japan-rare-e...](https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/revisiting-china-japan-rare-earths-dispute-2010 https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/revisiting-china-japan-rare-e...) [2] [https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/economic-sanctions-china-has-imposed-taiwan-over-pelosi-visit-2022-08-03/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/economic-sanction...](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/economic-sanctions-china-has-imposed-taiwan-over-pelosi-visit-2022-08-03/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/economic-sanction...) [3] [https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-bans-exports-gallium-germanium-antimony-us-2024-12-03/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-bans-expor...](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-bans-exports-gallium-germanium-antimony-us-2024-12-03/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-bans-expor...) [4] [https://apnews.com/article/1aebe98718e127365859b0fb0b63d07b https://apnews.com/article/1aebe98718e127365859b0fb0b63d07b](https://apnews.com/article/1aebe98718e127365859b0fb0b63d07b https://apnews.com/article/1aebe98718e127365859b0fb0b63d07b) [5] [https://apnews.com/article/0ea90fa798771c9fb650422ca3e21e09 https://apnews.com/article/0ea90fa798771c9fb650422ca3e21e09](https://apnews.com/article/0ea90fa798771c9fb650422ca3e21e09 https://apnews.com/article/0ea90fa798771c9fb650422ca3e21e09)
- truthbe 2mo ago
  Who started it?

rich_sasha 2mo ago

It doesn't make me upset that China seems able and determined to catch up on the litography technology - what else are they supposed to do? What does make me upset is that Europe has the technology and seems unwilling or unable to get it's act together and make some chips. China seems to have managed this part too, only without access to the latest chip making technology!

turgidpost 2mo ago
The rulers of the West know their days are numbered because of how rapidly China is advancing. Rather than make Europe better, they’re currently looting it. It would not surprise me (though it always seems unlikely, doesn’t it?) that a war breaks out sooner or later, although at China’s scale they know how to quell uprisings the size of any European country without a big fuss. Besides, they’ve already taken over a lot of Europe. So as the saying goes, resistance is futile.
r_lee 2mo ago
don't worry, im hearing that von der Leyen and all the EU politicians are hard at work and are about to shake hands and announce another package of funds that will disappear into the void in order to make the EU the "powerhouse" of AI, chips, datacenters, technology, jobs, space, everything. just wait, this time it'll make a dent. lots of hand shaking and smiling for the cameras. it's gonna be a new era
greatgib 2mo ago
Sadly the only thing that European leaders are really trying to copy from China is internet censorship and privacy eroding regulations...

toplinesoftsys 2mo ago

I would not be overestimating this achievement, but not underestimating either. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. China had access to the latest EUV tech for some time already, so they had abilities to reverse-engineer that tech. Eventually, the verdict will be clear only after we see actual chips produced using these machine, and when we learn their real yield.

black_13 2mo ago

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maxglute 2mo ago

Basically game over for compute wars in ~5 years if PRC serious, PRC doesn't need EUV to win compute game. If they hammer DUV tools and commoditize semi (i.e. remove 50-80% margins along every step of supply chain) they will simply be able to sell chips at fraction price of west, even accounting for multi pattern inefficiencies. TCO may still swing leading edge favor depending on infra / energy price, but as far as compute race goes, PRC can hammer power, fabs, DCs all at much lower input costs. The bottleneck has always been semi tooling.

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