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Isnt this silly when you can calculate the chance of war in Iran by oil futures instead. Prediction markets are just explicit markers of information that is alr

Isnt this silly when you can calculate the chance of war in Iran by oil futures instead. Prediction markets are just explicit markers of information that is already being traded on in 100 different ways.

jimkleiber 7mo ago
Yeah but less direct incentive than "If my friends (and I) bet money on X, and I do X, they (and I) make money."
- metalcrow 7mo ago
  Not by much, plus the volume is much lower on prediction markets, so people with large pockets who happen to be in power and are capable of doing big moves like this would make more money on the oil futures.
  - pinkmuffinere 7mo ago
    I wonder if there's profit to be made by looking at the futures markets, figuring out the implied probability distribution of different events, and then buying prediction markets when there's a mis-match? There sure are many inexperienced players entering predictions markets, just waiting to be fleeced...
    - metalcrow 7mo ago
      That's one of the intended uses of prediction markets! Although much like cryptocurrency arbitrage i assume the margins are small and will quickly be eaten by bigger fish.
      - pinkmuffinere 7mo ago
        Huh interesting. I suppose markets with low volume would tend to be the most profitable opportunities in that case? But then maybe they’re low volume because it’s hard to say what will happen…
  - jimkleiber 7mo ago
    Perhaps for people who have large sums of money, they don't tend to play in high risk bets anyways, they don't need to. Large sums make large sums on small percentage movement. Most people don't have enough money to make large sums on small percentage increase, id assume this route makes more sense for like the vast majority of humans, especially the ones who have access to privileged, often government, information.
breppp 7mo ago
The idea is not economic hedging but gambling and corruption
- nazcan 7mo ago
  Yes, but they are saying that if you allow economic hedging, you are also allowing gambling - just a bit more indirectly.
  - breppp 7mo ago
    maybe, but that is a by product of a real function (hedging). The reason prediction markets deal with news is so they can attract gamblers. Also compare marketing efforts of prediction markets and SEC control of real markets
amelius 7mo ago
Yeah we should ban derivatives too.
- gos9 7mo ago
  Who’s “we”? You or I certainly don’t have a say in this
- gruez 7mo ago
  /s?
  - JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
    Don’t think so. A lot of peoples’ first reaction to something they don’t understand is to try and make it go away.
    - fragmede 7mo ago
      A lot of people reaction to understanding what derivatives are are also to try and make them go away. Thinking derivatives are legalized gambling, and being against gambling entirely, doesn't require a lack of understanding of derivatives to be against them.
      - JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
        > thinking derivatives are legalized gambling, and being against gambling entirely, doesn't require a lack of understanding of derivatives to be against them No, but anyone who has an introductory knowledge of derivatives and their history will know of the Onion Futures Act, which banned "the trading of futures contracts on onions" to predictable (albeit long term) effects. Broadly speaking, the less someone knows about derivatives and the further their work is from the production of any good (versus services), the more likely they are to get upset about it. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onion_Futures_Act#cite_note-fortune-19 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onion_Futures_Act#cite_note-fo...
- Zigurd 7mo ago
pstuart 7mo ago
Except this wasn't driven by Oil. It was driven by Israel.
- Dig1t 7mo ago
  No idea why you're being downvoted, there is a mountain of evidence that this is the case. We are doing this because of Israel. Marco Rubio said outright we went in because of Israel. Just watch Trump's speeches, he literally talks about the power of the Israel lobby and hopes he is doing a good job for them. Netanyahu has visited Trump 7 times in the last year, each visit has been leading up to this move. Trump's biggest mega donors are Israeli dual citizens with strong ties to their home country. Miriam Adelson, Sheldon Adelson, Larry Elison (who has conveniently taken control of the TikTok algorithm and banned the phrase "#freepalestine" through his connection with Trump) have donated hundreds of millions for this exact outcome. These donors have direct ties to the Israeli government. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/13/who-is-miriam-adelson-the-pro-israel-donor-trump-lauded-at-the-knesset https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/13/who-is-miriam-adel... There is very little evidence that the strikes are being driven by oil, in fact oil is the perfect excuse to use as cover. It was the exact same thing with the Iraq war. Iraq and Iran were the two largest threats to Israel, we went into Iraq to regime change them and now we are finishing the job with Iran. Now there are no threats to Israel's expansion to the rest of the middle east. The ruling party (Likud) supports the Greater Israel project, which aims to expand Israel's borders to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Israel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Israel
  - pstuart 7mo ago
    I'm assuming that it's assumed that I'm slagging on Israel for some irrational hate -- I'm not. I'm commenting based upon reports that I've seen (effectively what you're referred to), not on ideology or feellings. Thanks for having my back! I think of HN as a community of intelligent people and it's always disappointing to be reminded that that alone is no guarantee of healthy discourse.
    - thephyber 7mo ago
alephnerd 7mo ago
> Isnt this silly when you can calculate the chance of war in Iran by oil futures instead This is why I'm opposed to prediction markets - they're gamified futures contracts (unsurprising given the founders at Kalshi are ex-Citadel and why Intercontinental Exchange executed growth equity rounds with Polymarket). A lot of degenerate gamblers are basically being taken to the cleaners as they lack the experience to actually mitigate risk or understand how to strucure futures contracts. And an actual insider has much easier and much more legally defensible alternatives to conduct insider trading than using a platform that has KYC requirements.
deleted 7mo ago
[deleted]
tlb 7mo ago
Oil prices are affected by many other things too. It's valuable to isolate individual factors.
geysersam 7mo ago
It's a big difference. There's vastly less chance someone manages to expose state secrets through their bets on oil futures. The volume is higher, and the prediction is less specific.
thinking_cactus 7mo ago
I agree in some ways. Like, I think in a way it's just not viable to patch every little loophole a corrupt or morally bankrupt administration could exploit and all damage it could cause, and probably not without making the administration itself useless. It's a still a good idea to patch as much as feasible, in part to if slightly discourage the worse from seeking power in the first place. But in a way, it's garbage in, garbage out. Laws will never be able to magically turn corrupt and misguided decisions into ever good ones. The robust solution is promoting wisdom, ethics, civility and education, so people make good democratic choices for themselves and others.

jimkleiber 7mo ago

Yeah but less direct incentive than "If my friends (and I) bet money on X, and I do X, they (and I) make money."

metalcrow 7mo ago
Not by much, plus the volume is much lower on prediction markets, so people with large pockets who happen to be in power and are capable of doing big moves like this would make more money on the oil futures.
- pinkmuffinere 7mo ago
  I wonder if there's profit to be made by looking at the futures markets, figuring out the implied probability distribution of different events, and then buying prediction markets when there's a mis-match? There sure are many inexperienced players entering predictions markets, just waiting to be fleeced...
  - metalcrow 7mo ago
    That's one of the intended uses of prediction markets! Although much like cryptocurrency arbitrage i assume the margins are small and will quickly be eaten by bigger fish.
    - pinkmuffinere 7mo ago
      Huh interesting. I suppose markets with low volume would tend to be the most profitable opportunities in that case? But then maybe they’re low volume because it’s hard to say what will happen…
- jimkleiber 7mo ago
  Perhaps for people who have large sums of money, they don't tend to play in high risk bets anyways, they don't need to. Large sums make large sums on small percentage movement. Most people don't have enough money to make large sums on small percentage increase, id assume this route makes more sense for like the vast majority of humans, especially the ones who have access to privileged, often government, information.

breppp 7mo ago

The idea is not economic hedging but gambling and corruption

nazcan 7mo ago
Yes, but they are saying that if you allow economic hedging, you are also allowing gambling - just a bit more indirectly.
- breppp 7mo ago
  maybe, but that is a by product of a real function (hedging). The reason prediction markets deal with news is so they can attract gamblers. Also compare marketing efforts of prediction markets and SEC control of real markets

amelius 7mo ago

Yeah we should ban derivatives too.

gos9 7mo ago
Who’s “we”? You or I certainly don’t have a say in this
gruez 7mo ago
/s?
- JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
  Don’t think so. A lot of peoples’ first reaction to something they don’t understand is to try and make it go away.
  - fragmede 7mo ago
    A lot of people reaction to understanding what derivatives are are also to try and make them go away. Thinking derivatives are legalized gambling, and being against gambling entirely, doesn't require a lack of understanding of derivatives to be against them.
    - JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
      > thinking derivatives are legalized gambling, and being against gambling entirely, doesn't require a lack of understanding of derivatives to be against them No, but anyone who has an introductory knowledge of derivatives and their history will know of the Onion Futures Act, which banned "the trading of futures contracts on onions" to predictable (albeit long term) effects. Broadly speaking, the less someone knows about derivatives and the further their work is from the production of any good (versus services), the more likely they are to get upset about it. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onion_Futures_Act#cite_note-fortune-19 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onion_Futures_Act#cite_note-fo...
Zigurd 7mo ago

pstuart 7mo ago

Except this wasn't driven by Oil. It was driven by Israel.

Dig1t 7mo ago
No idea why you're being downvoted, there is a mountain of evidence that this is the case. We are doing this because of Israel. Marco Rubio said outright we went in because of Israel. Just watch Trump's speeches, he literally talks about the power of the Israel lobby and hopes he is doing a good job for them. Netanyahu has visited Trump 7 times in the last year, each visit has been leading up to this move. Trump's biggest mega donors are Israeli dual citizens with strong ties to their home country. Miriam Adelson, Sheldon Adelson, Larry Elison (who has conveniently taken control of the TikTok algorithm and banned the phrase "#freepalestine" through his connection with Trump) have donated hundreds of millions for this exact outcome. These donors have direct ties to the Israeli government. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/13/who-is-miriam-adelson-the-pro-israel-donor-trump-lauded-at-the-knesset https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/13/who-is-miriam-adel... There is very little evidence that the strikes are being driven by oil, in fact oil is the perfect excuse to use as cover. It was the exact same thing with the Iraq war. Iraq and Iran were the two largest threats to Israel, we went into Iraq to regime change them and now we are finishing the job with Iran. Now there are no threats to Israel's expansion to the rest of the middle east. The ruling party (Likud) supports the Greater Israel project, which aims to expand Israel's borders to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Israel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Israel
- pstuart 7mo ago
  I'm assuming that it's assumed that I'm slagging on Israel for some irrational hate -- I'm not. I'm commenting based upon reports that I've seen (effectively what you're referred to), not on ideology or feellings. Thanks for having my back! I think of HN as a community of intelligent people and it's always disappointing to be reminded that that alone is no guarantee of healthy discourse.
  - thephyber 7mo ago

alephnerd 7mo ago

> Isnt this silly when you can calculate the chance of war in Iran by oil futures instead This is why I'm opposed to prediction markets - they're gamified futures contracts (unsurprising given the founders at Kalshi are ex-Citadel and why Intercontinental Exchange executed growth equity rounds with Polymarket). A lot of degenerate gamblers are basically being taken to the cleaners as they lack the experience to actually mitigate risk or understand how to strucure futures contracts. And an actual insider has much easier and much more legally defensible alternatives to conduct insider trading than using a platform that has KYC requirements.

deleted 7mo ago

[deleted]

tlb 7mo ago

Oil prices are affected by many other things too. It's valuable to isolate individual factors.

geysersam 7mo ago

It's a big difference. There's vastly less chance someone manages to expose state secrets through their bets on oil futures. The volume is higher, and the prediction is less specific.

thinking_cactus 7mo ago

I agree in some ways. Like, I think in a way it's just not viable to patch every little loophole a corrupt or morally bankrupt administration could exploit and all damage it could cause, and probably not without making the administration itself useless. It's a still a good idea to patch as much as feasible, in part to if slightly discourage the worse from seeking power in the first place. But in a way, it's garbage in, garbage out. Laws will never be able to magically turn corrupt and misguided decisions into ever good ones. The robust solution is promoting wisdom, ethics, civility and education, so people make good democratic choices for themselves and others.