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Even Cartels know that shooting down civilian aircraft in US airspace would be an escalation that would lead to heavy retaliation. Doesn't seem likely to me.
by Eddy_Viscosity2 9mo ago
Even Cartels know that shooting down civilian aircraft in US airspace would be an escalation that would lead to heavy retaliation. Doesn't seem likely to me.
- lilytweed 9mo agoGood point. I guess it depends on the force, size, and especially effectiveness of any potential strikes. (i.e. How cornered a cartel might feel and how much flexing an outsized response might stand to gain them.)
- estearum 9mo agoMistakes happen though
- mothballed 9mo agoUnless the government is planning an attack on the cartel[s] that is so existential that such action wouldn't be considered an escalation but rather a tic for tat. A trapped animal will generally use all its facilities regardless of its expected effectiveness.
- beepbooptheory 9mo agoRemember that there is no "the" cartel, just so many different towns and interests and bribed officials. It makes it a significant (and perhaps convenient) misnomer dont get me wrong, but maybe important to remember. Extremely good, highly researched book if you want to get angry at me or call me idiot! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drug_Cartels_Do_Not_Exist https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drug_Cartels_Do_Not_Exist
- mattmaroon 9mo agoUnless we start bombing them first. That’s not hard to imagine these days.
- ibejoeb 9mo agoNot hard to imagine these days? Wouldn't you hope for an intervention if it were known that a hostile, state-level military planned to down civilian aircraft?
- _joel 9mo agoWhat happened after https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17 ?
- ibejoeb 9mo agoI can't read your mind.
- KPGv2 9mo agoI had a quick check, and there were zero Americans on board this Malaysian aircraft shot down by a nuclear power over Ukraine, so I don't know how you think it's relevant to an American aircraft full of Americans being shot down in American airspace by cartels immediately on the other side of the American border. EDIT: Unless you think Malaysia not bombing the Kremlin in retribution is somehow indicative of how America would respond to the situation we're actually talking about.
- reactordev 9mo agoComing from groups that just pickup busses of people to murder, I wouldn’t be so sure that firing back at the US would be out of the question.
- nessbot 9mo agoMurdering buses of people doesn't bring the full force of the US military on them. The difference is the risk not the depravity.
- p-e-w 9mo agoThis is the answer. The cartels would have to be insane to poke that particular bear. They would get crushed like a bug. IIRC they murdered a single US undercover officer in the 90s and the retaliation was so bad that they themselves handed over the perpetrators.
- BoredPositron 9mo agoYou are right rationality is their strongest character trait.
- the_sleaze_ 9mo agoThe cartels are incredibly rational - what they lack are morals and ethics
- KPGv2 9mo agoDo you have much evidence of them behaving irrationally?
- mmh0000 9mo agoI would recommend reading the Freakinomics book or listen to their podcasts on drugs. TL;DR: drug cartels are run like businesses. They are very rational. But, unlike your boss, their boss can also shoot you in the face if you annoy them too much
- 9mo ago
- philistine 9mo agoIf that aircraft held a person they wanted dead, I would not put it past them.
- bpodgursky 9mo agoYes that might be the high-level logic, but if you give a MANPAD to a 19 year old sicario on meth, accidents do happen.
- jacquesm 9mo agoI think you misunderstood that movie.
- quickthrowman 9mo agoI’d be surprised if cartels would tolerate hard drug use by their soldiers, it seems like the kind of thing they’d kill you for, lack of discipline.
- duped 9mo agoYea you have to be a nation state like Israel, Iran or Russia to blow civilian aircraft out of the sky with no retaliation.