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While the headline is interesting. I think the table at the end of the article is more so. - Worldwide sales -10% YoY - China sales -26% YoY And when you cr
by bnchrch 9mo ago
While the headline is interesting.
I think the table at the end of the article is more so.
- Worldwide sales -10% YoY
- China sales -26% YoY
And when you cross compare Porsche saying they sold more EV powertrains than their gas equivalents against China's new found foothold as the market leader in consumer electric cars (BYD, NIO, Xiaomi, etc...)
Then I think you see an early indication not just of electric car dominance, but of the (very potential) rise of China as the premier automotive super power.
- mrits 9mo agoI don’t think anyone is going to keep an advantage in car manufacturing. The way we build them might totally change in a short duration with the rapid advancement in robotics
- kulahan 9mo agoMost advancements in robotics have been for highly generalized robots. We’ve been using robotics to build cars for like 50+ years. They’re extremely good.
- mrits 9mo agoMost practical advancements in robotics have been in and will be in highly specialized systems. Generalized robots are still mostly experimental.
- andyst 9mo agoin the australian market theres often comparison between how BYD/(chinese brands) may unseat Tesla (as the scale EV first mover), but I haven't seen what I think is the prize, which is BYD want to take on Toyota as the de facto king of global car making. They want the whole car market, not just EV and are already setup to take that on.
- coryrc 9mo agoEspecially as Toyota seems structurally unable to create a good EV. They produced one completely bare-bones model 30 years ago and never expanded past that. At least they're keeping some knowledge of the parts by having PHEVs, but I don't think they're on the leading edge of anything. Maybe they don't need to be and can buy everything from other suppliers, but they're going to be doing a whole lot less than they currently do and not sure they'll keep their profit margin.
- fy20 9mo agoToyota hybrids are full hybrids however, not mild hybrids like other manufactures, so all you really need is a bigger battery and charger. My 10 year old RAV4 Hybrid (not plug-in) can deliver 160kW just from the electric motors, without the engine. That's 3x a Dacia Spring. They have the technology for motors and control electronics, and they know it works long term without issues. Most of the European EVs are basically just electric city cars, unable to drive long ranges due to small batteries and limited fast charging. And most of them after 100,000km will need a new battery. Doesn't really fit in with Toyota's 'long term reliability' stance. I can't blame Toyota for waiting for the technology to mature before they go all in on EVs. Plus they do have the bz4x / RX which are full EVs you can buy today.
- formerly_proven 9mo ago> Most of the European EVs are basically just electric city cars, unable to drive long ranges due to small batteries and limited fast charging. And most of them after 100,000km will need a new battery. Doesn't really fit in with Toyota's 'long term reliability' stance. Australian cities must be enormous for this statement to make any semblance of sense.
- Intermernet 9mo agoNot that big, but absolutely enourmous distances between them. The inter-city highway infrastructure is lacking in EV chargers, but it's getting better.
- appplication 9mo agoChina may become the superpower on volume but I would be surprised if the upper quartile (by price) of western buyers were interested in Chinese vehicles. Too much quality issues across the board on Chinese made products, unless you have a trusted non-Chinese company with stringent quality control (e.g. Apple model). I’m sure they can handily win the lower end of the market though. And yes I’m aware many western manufacturers are shit tier quality.
- sdwr 9mo agoSelling the most cars will eventually translate into making the best cars, with the compounding experience and network effects.
- willturman 9mo agoYou'd think so, but also, Tesla.
- kulahan 9mo agoThey don’t sell anywhere near the most cars, and their market share is shrinking. They also are a very VERY young manufacturer. This isn’t the right example to use imo. Maybe Jeep? Very popular, dogwater quality. They take nearly half of the Consumer Reports “top 10 worst cars on the road” almost every year.
- appplication 9mo ago> Selling the most x will eventually translate into making the best x It’s a theory for sure, but I don’t think that’s a common strategy for modern capitalism.
- andyferris 9mo agoWhat about for socialism with Chinese charateristics?
- 9mo ago
- itsthecourier 9mo agogreat analysis
- melenaboija 9mo ago> Then I think you see an early indication not just of electric car dominance, but of the (very potential) rise of China as the premier automotive super power. It’s done man. Americans are stuck in ICE engines because they’ve been told they’re “car enthusiasts” while the Chinese have been developing EV technology for years. Meanwhile, European makers are stuck not knowing what to do, make Americans happy or compete with the Chinese. The result: nothing has been done properly. And let’s be real, “car enthusiasts” are going to disappear in one or two generations. Practicality beats enthusiasm for 95% of car use.
- CalRobert 9mo agoPerhaps people in the future will visit the US for the dieselpunk nostalgia, the same way people like seeing classic cars in Cuba.
- psychoslave 9mo agoI strongly doubt any current car will stand longevity of those cars. The maintenance entry cost of anything with integrated electronic is just several order of magnitude in complexity.
- funkyfiddler69 9mo agoWhat? How so? Isn't it just a bunch of PCBs and sensors whereas gas powered cars are a bunch of awesome nonesense you can gently whack against each other to create different notes and tones? The former requires a special printer while the latter requires tons of machines for precision engineering and the industrial equivalent of smitheries and blacksmiths!
- protocolture 9mo ago>Then I think you see an early indication not just of electric car dominance, but of the (very potential) rise of China as the premier automotive super power. I thought we were there already tbh. Chinese cars have gone from laughably bad to quality parity in less than a decade. Like even 2 years ago, I was still hearing "the paint the paint" as the last remaining issue. But I dont hear that anymore.
- irjustin 9mo agoIn terms of quality they are there, now it's expansion. I, for one, am quite excited for all this competition. I don't care who makes my level 4/5 self driver, I just want it now.
- msy 9mo agoParity? Their EVs are streets ahead, doubly so for the price.
- protocolture 9mo agoI dont drive one of their EV's, but the 20+ year veteran Diesel Engineer who took my DPF filter complaint escalation does and thats really all I need to know. After I run my current vehicle into the ground, that will probably be next.
- fy20 9mo agoSimilar story here. I know a guy who does chip tuning as his career. He bought a Tesla last year, and he's more than happy with it.
- IrishTechie 9mo agoOther than price, in what ways are they streets ahead? I’m a bit of an EV nerd and that would not be my assessment at all. Unfortunately for Western manufacturers price/volume is probably the most important thing right now, so they are still in serious trouble.
- csomar 9mo agoChina's 2025 numbers are out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_motor_vehicle_production https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_motor_veh... They're up roughly 10% over last year and will likely hit 35% of global production. The big shift over the last decade (beyond their growing market share) is that their overall quality has caught up to (and in many cases surpassed) the traditional incumbents. Barring a global war, I think they're unstoppable at this point.
- riffraff 9mo agoI remember when Japan was supposed to take over the world in the '80s, to the point that "back to the future 2" had Americans speaking Japanese to their managers. Toyota did become the dominant producer, but American and European car makers (and now Koreans and Chinese) are still around. I wouldn't bet on total domination from China anytime soon.
- vasco 9mo agoAnd funny thing, all three countries car industries were started by the USA.
- csomar 9mo agoWell, China is not accepting/going through a Plaza Accord kind of an agreement. So history might not replay itself this time.
- mytailorisrich 9mo agoYes I remember, too. The crucial difference is that Japan's population is one third of the US while China's is 4 times the US (and 3x the EU). Basically Japan never had the numbers to "take over the world" while China has them even if natality is way down. If China had the same clout relative to population as Japan, Germany, Korea, or the US it would dwarf everyone else, and that's why the US are in a panic about China.
- psychoslave 9mo agoWhat's in the mind of European political oligarchy really?
- epolanski 9mo agoWhat do you mean?
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]
- chakintosh 9mo ago> but of the (very potential) rise of China as the premier automotive super power. It's done. They're already the premier automotive superpower now. It might not seem like it in Europe and USA, but anywhere else in the world they are dominating. I live in Morocco and I am not exaggerating when I say that every week I see a new Chinese brand on the road. Not just cars of the same brand, completely new brands. Dacia and a lot of PSA cars are built in Morocco, so naturally they always had a strong positioning here, but now I'm seeing more BYDs than DACIA's most popular car, the Duster. It's anecdotal but it's quite telling considering the foothold French brands have always had here. Here's a chart showing the sheer dominance of Chinese brands on the EV market in Morocco. 6 out of 10 models are Chinese. https://www.wandaloo.com/files/2026/01/aivam-bilan-marche-automobile-marocain-neuf-2025-top-10-modeles-vp.jpg https://www.wandaloo.com/files/2026/01/aivam-bilan-marche-au...
- fennecfoxy 9mo ago>every week I see a new Chinese brand on the road And I think the difference is going to be apparent 15-20 years from now when new parts are needed for these models. With the big boys like Ford, Toyota etc I can trust that they manufactured (and still manufacture) parts with warehouses full of them and I can always find the part I need to repair a vehicle. I very much doubt that we will see the same thing with Chinese auto companies, even premier ones like BYD.
- pjc50 9mo ago> And I think the difference is going to be apparent 15-20 years from now when new parts are needed for these models. Perhaps unstated, but this is going to be like trying to find parts for my Nokia 3210 (current age: 27). EVs are still in the "rapid improvement" phase, and by the time the battery warranty expires (5-7 years) the cars available on the current market will be significantly better in all respects. On the other hand, they just have far fewer "parts" in the first place. Early indication is very good for lifetimes of the non-battery parts. I expect the median EV of today to have a shorter life than a corresponding ICE, but the EV of 10 years time to have a much longer one. Which is going to make all the stupid issues around infotainment and subscription issues more acute. The average age of all cars on UK roads has just hit 10 years: https://www.racfoundation.org/media-centre/average-car-in-the-uk-is-oldest-it-has-ever-been https://www.racfoundation.org/media-centre/average-car-in-th... ; EVs skew young because they're new.
- cbeach 9mo ago> the (very potential) rise of China as the premier automotive super power. This is dangerous, geo-politically, should China ever go to war with the West in any capacity. In WW2, America's car factories gave it a decisive advantage, as part of the war machine. Ford’s Willow Run plant produced one B-24 bomber every ~63 minutes at peak output. General Motors built tanks, aircraft engines, trucks. Chrysler: tanks and artillery. The West de-industrialised, as a result of our globalist policy (thanks to the WTO, WEF and other supranational organisations). We have decimated our own military industrial production capability. Meanwhile China has taken exactly the opposite approach.
- pjc50 9mo agohttps://www.ft.com/content/6474a1a9-4a88-4f76-9685-f8ccb080d5d9 https://www.ft.com/content/6474a1a9-4a88-4f76-9685-f8ccb080d... : "Renault to team up with French defence group to make drones for Ukraine" I don't think the deindustrialization narrative is quite as bad as the doomers would have it, although it's notable that both sides in the Ukraine war depend on Chinese drone electronics. (we've also forgotten the nuclear war narrative of the 80s: it's irrelevant if you can build a bomber in 63 minutes if it only takes the ballistic missiles 43 minutes from launch to arrival, at which point the war or at least industrial society is over)
- screye 9mo agoIt's been a bizarre watch. The automotive industry (and nations that rely on it) has sabotaged itself for a good decade. Unsurprisingly, China has caught up. Classic case of 'we've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas'. Unions sabotaged automation efforts and limited hours worked. Quarterly financial pressures kept research investments to a minimum. Nations refused to scale up nuclear, and cost of electricity kept rising. The one well-run EV company (Tesla) decided to destroy its brand value overnight. Toyota went on a pig-headed hydrogen tangent and Honda still hasn't tried to make an EV. Korea has done surprisingly well. But, they're the exception that proves the rule. China's rise as a manufacturing superpower was inevitable. But its rise as an automotive superpower involved major capitulation by the primary competition.
- malfist 9mo agoPlease share how unions sabotaged automation efforts. As far as I can tell, unions are losing every fight these days.
- jonkoops 9mo agoUnions in countries like Germany and France are much more powerful. Especially VW is extremely unionized, half of the seats on the Supervisory Board are allocated to worker representatives. These employee representatives are elected or selected by the workers (usually via union and works council processes), so VW employees indirectly influence board decisions through these seats.
- malfist 9mo agoThat doesn't explain how unions have sabotaged automation
- abdullahkhalids 9mo ago> Unions sabotaged automation efforts and limited hours worked. It's completely rational for unions, and the workers, to prevent automation. The short term results of automation are only negative for workers, and positive for every other part of the market (customers, suppliers, capitalists). The results might be positive in the long run, but why should only one group suffer. Perhaps, the capital-owning class could make the deal positive for the workers by giving the workers ownership of a substantial portion of the firm. Then whats good for the firm would become good for workers, and the union would not oppose automation so much.
- catigula 9mo agoChina spent a lot of money for this position in the market.