7 ms·
My favorite lens on this comes from Hamming: > It is well known the drunken sailor whos taggers to the left or right n independent random steps will, on the av
by Swizec 10mo ago
My favorite lens on this comes from Hamming:
> It is well known the drunken sailor whos taggers to the left or right n independent random steps will, on the average, end up about sqrt(n) steps from the origin. But if there is a pretty girl in one direction, then his steps will tend to go in that direction and he will go a distance proportional to n. In a lifetime of many, many independent choices, small and large, a career with a vision will get you a distance proportional to n, while no vision will get you only the distance sqrt(n). In a sense, the main difference between those who go far and those who do not is some people have a vision and others do not and therefore can only react to the current events as they happen.
Just a tiny bit of bias towards a direction will get you very far very fast.
I once modeled+visualised this with a bit of javascript[1] and it's quite surprising to see the huge difference from even a tiny multiplication factor on each random/probabilistic decision.
[1] https://swizec.com/blog/your-career-needs-a-vision/ https://swizec.com/blog/your-career-needs-a-vision/
- y-curious 10mo agoThis is a lovely mental model and also makes me feel a host of existential dread. I had a semblance of vision before gen AI and I think that vision needs serious revision
- ptero 10mo agoWhich is fine. Goals shift and can even completely disappear, forcing you to pick another one. But having and pursuing long term goals at most times is still the ticket for success. My 2c.
- A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 10mo agoIt is not something I share very often, because people assume a lot when I do, but von Braun[1] shared a similar idea. Ignoring for a moment his past, one cannot say that he had no achievements further supporting position noted by OP. [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Aim_at_the_Stars https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Aim_at_the_Stars
- clrflfclrf 10mo agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Aim_at_the_Stars https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Aim_at_the_Stars > Despite his moral quandaries, von Braun participates in the Nazi's V-2 rocket program during World War II to further his ambitions in rocket engineering. The film carefully depicts his efforts to reconcile his love for scientific exploration with the knowledge that his work is being used for destructive purposes. I have a similar short story idea where a person of the calibre of Elon Musk who works so hard is made to feel and see his successful moonshot projects being used for destroying and subjugating nations. This would be similar to Oppenheimer. Another twist I can take with the story is Hero "Elon" knows about this outcome but still in the hope of change in institutional ideology over decades hopes for better use for his technology. In the movie Watchmen, Ozymandias feels the pain of millions he is going to kill to save future billions. Watchmen: Killing millions to save billions https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tu2DdkOxLNs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tu2DdkOxLNs
- raincole 10mo agoWait, are you saying that for a symmetrical random walk, the expected distance is of the order of sqrt(n), but even for a slightly biased random walk (like 0.5000001 chance to take right) it's of the order of n? Edit: well of course it is. I was thinking expected position (which should be 0) not distance
- NooneAtAll3 10mo agoyep "expected distance" is average abs(coordinate), so for biased walk (and big enough time) it's simply abs(bias)*time, and for unbiased it's deviation==sqrt(variance)
- raincole 10mo agoOh right, makes sense.
- jeffwass 10mo agoThe “expected distance” is not what you think here. For a binomial distribution of probability p and (1-p), after N steps the expectation value of right steps is Np. The Variance is Np(1-p), so the standard deviation (or Root-Mean-Square) scales as Sqrt(N).
- NegatioN 10mo agoI also really treasure that quote. Your visualization really made it hit home again though. It does make me reflect on this piece I wrote 9(!!) years ago though, which hasn't completely materialized. I think I'm due for a re-alignment of priorities. https://www.jrishaug.com/Who-do-you-want-to-be/ https://www.jrishaug.com/Who-do-you-want-to-be/
- ErigmolCt 10mo agoThe vision doesn't have to be accurate, it just has to be directional
- runlaszlorun 10mo agoTaken out of context, this line seems like a valid description of our ethos these days lol.
- elric 10mo agoThis reminds me of a take on art, that goes something like "you don't need talent, but you do need to have taste". Taste is the same kind of driver as direction in this case. Probably butchered the quote, can't remember who said it, but the message stuck.
- elevatortrim 10mo agoI think the beauty of this quote is working more than its content. Most people, even when they do not sit down and think about it, follow one of the two career paths: - Some people will actively pursue the next logical progression (senior, lead/manager, head/vp, exec). - Some will happily stay in their position unless the next one is offered to them. Being deliberate will always work better compared to being random, but it is not like all people who succeed in their careers deliberately planned to get where they are. I would even guess that for the vast majority of successful careers, competency and luck played a much bigger role than being deliberate about it.
- tayo42 10mo ago> would even guess that for the vast majority of successful careers, competency and luck played a much bigger role than being deliberate about it. I think this is true. I had a while where my career was doing really well constant steps up, I was learning, getting promoted, was working on great projects and problems that were engaging and led to easy promotions. Then I got a new manager and it was downhill. Then I got a new job and the problems are insignificant and there's no room for growth of any kind. If my latest job was earlier in my career my career would be very different.
- xeromal 10mo agoI never really had a plan for a career but I never settled. I borderline almost did at my last job as it paid enough and I loved the people like family but the move from that job landed me in the most interesting and well paying job I've had yet. Luck totally played a part in most of my jumps and the ones I thought were good were often bad and the ones I wasn't interested in ended up being the most interesting.
- lanstin 10mo agoI just can’t understand people whose life goal is like to be a CTO by some date; I have never tried for a promotion since I first shifted into a job where I was paid to make software. Due to the random walk of promotion rules (and most likely the good work of bosses that believed in me), I have been promoted enough that I had to put thought leader into my linked in, but I do believe just making sure whatever you are working on is useful and successful to other people is enough worry; if you are skilled in software and thinking, the other things will work them selves out.
- amelius 10mo agoThat's basically diffusion versus drift. But I think it is the wrong view, as generally people do move into the direction they want to go. Take a person doing plumbing but wanting to be in art. The problem is not the direction, the problem is taking the first step. In general, many people dislike changing jobs, so they don't take steps. The steps are the problem, not the direction.
- lbotos 10mo agoYou don’t know anyone in your life that “talks big game? Or someone else that “can’t get their stuff together?” A lot of people never even “move”.
- clrflfclrf 10mo agoDrift made me think of electron drift under applied voltage or electric field.
- anal_reactor 10mo agoOk but how do you know that the pretty girl isn't a succubus?
- grim_io 10mo agoThat's just a bonus.
- monkeydust 10mo agoI have generally had strong vision in my career but this year due to external forces at play at work I have been much more reactive to the chaos and generally felt off the whole year, this was a nice mental model to step through, liked the visualization.
- haritha-j 10mo agoIt's a lovely metaphor, but I find myself at odds with the logic. What you sacrifice with vision I think is flexibility to respond to serendipity.
- xandrius 10mo agoVision is not a dictator, it's just having half an idea of where you'd love to be in X years. It can and probably will move as you age and gain experience. But if you're thinking you'd love to be your own boss and, as you have that vision, you find something much more interesting, you can still re-assess.
- haritha-j 10mo agoThat's a good point. I find it very hard to find the optimum balance between flexbility / vision.
- xandrius 10mo agoDon't let optimum be the enemy of good and enjoy the ride.
- skeeter2020 10mo agoMy entire professional life/career has been a tension between trying new things/opportunities and trying to be intentional in what/where/when/how I make changes. I'll probably be done in about 10 years so I'll let you know how it worked out then.
- rubslopes 10mo agoThis resonates with me. Three years ago, I left academia after finishing my PhD in Economics, frustrated by how little real-world impact my hard work seemed to have. I moved into IT, wanting to build things that would be more immediately useful and practical. Still, the dream of using science to create positive change never left me. I was invited to work with AI at a company that develops software for the public sector. It wasn't the dream (I wouldn't be using my academic expertise) but it felt like a step closer. At least I'd be providing tools to support people who directly affect others' lives. From the start, I told my boss that I hoped someday to offer not just AI tools, but real socioeconomic statistical analysis as a service for the public sector. And while I've been happy working with AI, I've always sought out opportunities on projects that were more data-driven. Three years later, some clients expressed interest in having our AI chatbot provide real-world socioeconomic data analysis. My boss just gave me a promotion to lead both the AI team and this new socioeconomic data initiative. I was reflecting the other day on how fortunate I am, my dream "chased me." But it wasn't simply luck. I had always stayed attuned to the opportunities that arose.
- onion2k 10mo agoThat's really nice, but the point where the vision is should move too. You learn as you progress. What you enjoy changes. The entire industry moves. Being focused on the goal you defined 30 years ago is almost certainly wrong for most people.
- reactordev 10mo agoI can’t emphasize this enough. Every 5 years or so I reassess what my goals are and refocus my vision on where I want to apply my skills. Things change fast in our industry so being able to pivot to something nearby is paramount for maintaining a career in this field. Not everyone has the fortune to spend 15 years at a FAANG or other large corporation. Sometimes you have to build it.
- AnimalMuppet 10mo agoEvery five years or so, my wife asks me, "What do you need to learn now for the next five years of your career?" It's the same as what you do, except I need the reminder...
- kamaal 10mo ago>>Being focused on the goal you defined 30 years ago is almost certainly wrong for most people. I think there are certain things that are not likely to change, and must be aimed for. For starters, being healthy, proactively working towards a retirement nest egg, so that you don't end up homeless and starving in case things go south too fast. There are many such things I hold as things I would want several years from now. Good health, free time and enough money to not need a job to just put food on the table, and a roof above my head.
- monkeydust 10mo ago>> Good health, free time and enough money to not need a job to just put food on the table, and a roof above my head. Sound like the utility function for a lot of people I would say.
- 10mo ago
- chrisweekly 10mo agoGreat point, and great blog post (as usual). PS Tangent - FYI there's a typo "Minset" should be "Mindset" in the reference to your book. HTH
- bad_username 10mo agoI don't think jus the raw distance (from here) is the metric to necessarily optimize for. It may be more useful to throughly search the nearby area, for example - especially if you feel you're in a good neighborhood already.
- clrflfclrf 10mo agohttps://www.sciencenews.org/article/sharks-use-math-hunt https://www.sciencenews.org/article/sharks-use-math-hunt A new study suggests that some sharks and other marine predators can follow strict mathematical strategies when foraging for dinner. The work, reported online June 9 in Nature, is the latest aiming to show whether animals sometimes move in a pattern called a Lévy walk. Unlike random motion — in which animals take similar-sized steps in any direction, like a drunk stumbling around — Lévy walks are punctuated by rare, long forays in any direction. Draw a Lévy walk on a graph, and its squiggly pattern echoes a fractal, the mathematical phenomenon whose shape remains similar no matter the viewing scale.
- mhb 10mo agoPremature optimization would like a word.
- agentultra 10mo agoHamming was also writing from a highly privileged position. He was able to work at Bell Labs for the majority of his career. That just doesn’t exist today. The Art of Doing Science and Engineering is a great book but it needs context. The last edition was released in 1994. Programmers had a lot of labour power back then. Today though? The median house costs more than a third of the median income. Inflation has raised costs of living to unsustainable levels. And for programmers there have been hundreds of thousands of layoffs since 2023 and a low number of job openings. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to take what job you can get or stay in a job you don’t care for until the trade winds return.
- Swizec 10mo ago> Hamming was also writing from a highly privileged position. Hamming had a lot of career capital. He was the only person in the world with his track record. If you needed his kind of research/output/teaching/etc, he was the person you needed. Cal Newport talks a lot about this. Great books. Have something [unique/valuable] to offer and you'll be surprised how many doors it opens. Yes it takes time to stairstep your way there. A fresh grad has less career capital than a seasoned engineer with a track record of building billion dollar companies.
- jvanderbot 10mo agoThis is a framing issue. You can't control the times, but good advice is applicable in good and bad times. If Hamming was operating from a "good time", it should be true that his policies are also applicable in the "bad times". His advice to "work on the worlds hardest problems" was spoken to people who had worked their way past the initial difficulties. General advice to "Move towards important problems", which is precisely the same thing, applies in good and bad times, and is very likely to produce in you a valuable expertise.
- yobbo 10mo agoIt's not about good or bad times. All compasses are broken so any particular direction you believe you are walking deliberately might as well be uniformly random. "Direction" and "design" are probably the wrong metaphors for careers.
- skeeter2020 10mo agoDo people actually perform a random walk though? All terrain - both metaphorically and physically - is not equal, so wouldn't a more accurate description be 1. float on the water and go where the current/tides take you, or 2. decide when you're going to paddle against it towards the lighthouse? or more simply, "most people walk downhill"?
- ekjhgkejhgk 10mo ago> n independent random steps will, on the average, end up about sqrt(n) steps from the origin AKCSHUALLY The root of the mean of the squared distances is sqrt(n). The phrase as you quoted is the mean of the absolute distance. In general those are different. I don't know the latter from memory, and a quick look at the wikipedia page for Brownian motion doesn't have it.
- aoeusnth1 10mo agoYou're right, sqrt(E[d^2]) > E[|d|] because of Jensen's inequality. The latter is about 0.8 sqrt(N).
- moffkalast 10mo agoTonight on Top Bit: I formally verify a theorem, James designs a dbms, and Richard writes a blog.
- BrokenCogs 10mo agoWhat a terribly flawed model. Being opportunistic can be classified as "vision" too.
- test123asdfasdf 10mo agoComment is interesting because its only confirmation bias material and doesn't hold up under minimal scrutiny. If you want to stay in pretentious CS analogy territory, then consider that if you can react to current events you can be a heuristical pathfinding algorithm that adjusts its goal based on locally optimal heuristics, making each individual step more efficient. This all a straight ass pull that will not translate to real world performance either, but it will serve to sound impressive to a fool.