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It’s wild how Voyager forces two truths to sit together: Technically, what we’ve done is almost boringly modest. ~17 km/s ~1 light-day in ~50 years No reali
by danishSuri1994 10mo ago
It’s wild how Voyager forces two truths to sit together:
Technically, what we’ve done is almost boringly modest.
~17 km/s
~1 light-day in ~50 years
No realistic way to steer it anywhere meaningful now
On cosmic scales it’s… basically still on our doorstep.
Psychologically, it’s still one of the most ambitious things we’ve ever done.
We built something meant to work for decades, knowing the people who launched it would never see the end of the story.
We pointed a metal box into the dark with the assumption that the future would exist and might care.
I keep coming back to this: Voyager isn’t proof that interstellar travel is around the corner. It’s proof that humans will build absurdly long-horizon projects anyway, even when the ROI is almost entirely knowledge and perspective.
Whether we ever leave the solar system in a serious way probably depends less on physics and more on whether we ever build a civilization stable enough to think in centuries without collapsing every few decades.
Voyager is the test run for that mindset more than for the tech.
- jwpapi 10mo agoU made me cry on HN
- thebruce87m 10mo agoThe comment wasn’t made by a human.
- alexose 10mo agoWell now I'm crying too
- ricardo81 10mo agoAgree. Voyager is probably considered by many to be one of our greatest achievements. It makes me wonder when we'll have anything set foot in another star system. I would guess realistically after 2100, but then we went from the Wright brothers to landing on the moon in under 70 years... so I may be proven wrong.
- jonhohle 10mo agoSpace is so ridiculously big that I don't think it will ever happen. Back of the envelope math - 4.2 light years to the nearest star that's not the sun, current vehicles traveling about 10x the speed of voyager (e.g. 1 light day in 5 years). If something was launched today it would get to the nearest star system in about 7,660 years (assuming that star system also a radius of 1 light day). 100x faster than current (1,000km/s) would still take 76 years. Definitely not before 2100 and almost certainly so long after that we will seem like a primitive civilization compared to those that do it.
- deleted 10mo ago[deleted]
- alexose 10mo agoJust spitballing, but maybe it would be possible with relatively modest advances in ion thrusters, and one (admittedly less-than-modest) breakthrough with fusion. It's maybe too speculative to even matter, but I don't think it's _crazy_ to imagine a handful of AI-fueled advances in materials discovery during the next decade or two. Possibly enough to unlock laser fusion, or something that could be crammed onto a spacecraft.
- deleted 10mo ago[deleted]
- Forgeties79 10mo ago> AI-fueled advances There is no amount of money in the world that would get me on the ChatGPT rocket
- setopt 10mo agoBy "AI" they probably aren’t thinking about LLMs in this context.
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- itake 10mo agoThe feat, from the perspective you describe, isn't that remarkable. Humanity has tons of projects that meet these exact standards throughout our history: > We built something meant to work for decades, knowing the people who launched it would never see the end of the story. > We pointed a metal box into the dark with the assumption that the future would exist and might care. > It’s proof that humans will build absurdly long-horizon projects anyway, even when the ROI is almost entirely knowledge and perspective. The pyramids, the Bible, governments, or even businesses [0] are all human constructs that last way beyond their creators (and their intention), with and without their creator's intention. > we ever build a civilization stable enough to think in centuries without collapsing every few decades. This is a valid point though [0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_companies https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_companies
- kristianc 10mo agoThe challenges to even get close seem insurmountable. At that speed, microscopic grains of dust hit like bullets. It's not like the nearest is much of a prize - we know that the Centauri system is likely inhospitable and that Tau Ceti has an enormous debris field.
- DrBazza 10mo agoI like to think the Plumbob bore cap overtook Voyager 1 quite some time ago. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Plumbbob https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Plumbbob
- pandemic_region 10mo agoThis made me laugh, cheers mate.
- dheera 10mo ago> It’s proof that humans will build absurdly long-horizon projects anyway They used to. But these days the people who control the economy and funding for things like this are either politicians interested in 4 year cycles or VCs interested in 5-10 year cycles. Nobody gives a damn about long horizon stuff anymore. We landed humans on the moon half a century ago, and we still haven't reached Mars. Instead we're building some stupid apps for people who are forced to work 7 days a week in the office on some boring ads optimization algorithm to have someone to walk their dog for them and deliver their groceries for them and monitor their health because they can't get enough exercise (that would solve their health problem the way the body intended) and don't get time to leave the confines of their <strike>jail</strike> office.
- moron4hire 10mo agoTo be fair to our generation, people didn't build so much stupid shit in the 60s not because they weren't interested in stupid shit but because the whole world was too poor to be able to afford it. Our generation created the economic conditions in which people could have the spare cash to spend on stupid shit. I would put good money on a bet that there are more people today who deeply care about the long-term horizon than did in the 60s. I don't think we spent money on long-shots in the 60s because people cared more. I think we did it because it was relatively low-hanging fruit in a gigantic culture war between US-centric Western powers and USSR-centric Eastern powers. We don't have that kind of "most people agree it's an existential threat" level of cultural difference anymore. China? They sell us most of our stuff. We don't hate China, not really. But we hated the Soviets.
- jjk166 10mo agoThis is not an example of nor even an attempt at long horizon thinking. Voyager wasn't built with the intention that it would last for decades. It was a rush job to take advantage of a very rare planetary alignment and it's primary mission was completed 12 years after it started. It is a testament to the ingenuity of the engineers who have worked and are still working on the project that they've managed to keep it to some degree functioning for so much longer than it was intended to last.
- isolli 10mo agoAlso a testament to their foresight that it managed to send back useful data decades after the end of the mission, for instance when it crossed the heliosphere.
- p-e-w 10mo agoThis wasn’t foresight. As the comment you responded to stated, the Voyager probes were built to explore the outer planets, nothing less and nothing more. The fact that they are still working is essentially a fortunate coincidence, helped by there not being much that can damage a spacecraft in outer space. Just like Opportunity lasted for 15 years, while its identical twin Spirit only lasted for 6. The Voyager probes could easily have failed long ago, they just didn’t. But not because of planning or foresight. Sometimes things simply work out well.
- neilfrndes 10mo agoI loved watching "It's quieter in the twilight", a documentary about how a dedicated team of engineers (mostly retired) are fighting to keep the Voyager mission alive. https://m.imdb.com/title/tt17658964/ https://m.imdb.com/title/tt17658964/
- raincole 10mo agoGiven JavaScript, my headcannon is our galaxy is actually full of "rush jobs" probes from different species.
- micromacrofoot 10mo agoI'm kind of upset that we haven't done much on the equivalent level in the time since... sure we have done some very cool things, but none of it quite feels like it's on the Voyager level of duration
- jacksondc 10mo agoThis is a strange comment. The author claims to be a human—"what we've done", "we built something", "we pointed a metal box into the dark"—but nearly every sentence sounds distinctly AI-writen. (Examples: "I keep coming back to this:", "Voyager isn't ... It's ...", "the assumption that the future would exist and might care", "on our doorstep", "see the end of the story", "depends less on ... and more on ...", etc.)
- averageRoyalty 10mo agoOr it's just their writing style. There's nothing distinctly AI that I can see in there, and many of the common AI tropes come from commonalities in human writing.
- gjm11 10mo agoNah, look at their posting history. In the last hour they've posted a whole slew of comments with the same sort of tone and the same AI-ish stylistic quirks, all in quite surprisingly quick succession if the author is actually reading the things they're commenting on and thinking about them before posting. (And their comments before this posting spree are quite different in style.) I won't say it's impossible for this to be human work, but it sure doesn't look like it.
- averageRoyalty 10mo agoYeah you're right. I wanted to give them the benefit of the doubt, but the comment history makes it pretty obvious.
- switchbak 10mo agoI don't think so. I wouldn't expect an AI to say " It’s proof that humans will build absurdly long-horizon projects anyway, even when the ROI is almost entirely knowledge and perspective" "the ROI is almost entirely knowledge and perspective" - this isn't a way I've ever heard an AI talk. And at a meta-level, accusing someone of being an AI is getting very boring and repetitive (admittedly, I've done it once), and I expect we'll have to get used to that too.
- kakacik 10mo agoThat plate with info about us, where to find us... not smart, naive. I get that 70s were probably way more enthusiastic and open minded re space space exploration compared to rather bleak times now when greed often takes prime and Star Trek TOS probably had its effect too, but next time we should do better. Dark forest theory sounds more rational conclusion on long enough timescale than Star trekkish utopias. Although, in next million years, if intercepted it should be trivial to pinpoint where it came from just from trajectory.
- 8bitsrule 10mo agoOTOH, back in that period of the Cold War, the odds seemed long that we'd still be around by the time it was found, out in the endless vastness of space. Discussing those odds at length would no doubt decrease them.
- Yhippa 10mo agoHopefully we never see a photoid collapse us into 2D space.
- johnwheeler 10mo agoWhen I was around five years old, I was surprised to learn that all of our tax dollars weren't going to space exploration. For some reason, I intuited that was man's highest aspiration and we'd be throwing everything at it. Come to find it's all defense spending and printing money.
- mvkel 10mo agoThe Voyager project itself has long ended and it's just cute to keep monitoring it and getting data from it. If nothing else, it serves well as a perpetual PR vehicle for NASA. The core of the project I would not say represents long-term thinking of NASA or civilization. I'm not convinced that we're biologically wired to think long-term. It's extremely rare when someone pops up, and they usually end up becoming extremely impactful in society (Lincoln; Jobs; Elon)
- UncleOxidant 10mo agoBut the thing is, the Voyager project came about in a much more stable period for the US - and in a more optimistic cultural climate (we could say similar for the Apollo project which wasn't that much earlier). When we used to prioritize spending on basic science and projects like this that basically had no ROI (NASA didn't even much think in those terms back in the 70s). Now we're in a very different place where, in the US anyway, we're very pessimistic about the future. To create a Voyager project you have to have some hope, like you said "with the assumption that that future would exist and might care" - now we're in a very different place where people don't have a lot of hope about the future. And it's also different in that we now ask "what's the payback going to be?" - everything now seems to need to pay it's way. Not saying that other countries won't be able to do stuff like this - probably China is going to take the position that the US used to hold for this kind of exploration. It seems to be a more optimistic culture at this point, but hard to say how long that lasts.
- JacobThreeThree 10mo agoIt was a unique period of interplanetary space travel where most projects were simple flybys - the first time for each planet. Because the goal was just to flyby, the secondary benefit is that the trajectory sends it outside the solar system. Nowadays, most missions involve insertions into orbit around the target planet, therefore no secondary opportunity to send it outside the solar system. The notable exception is New Horizons, which was a Pluto flyby and will also eventually leave the solar system.
- edm0nd 10mo agowhatever you say clanker