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Peter Thiel sells off all Nvidia stock, stirring bubble fears
- FrankWilhoit 11mo agoWhen someone like this does something like this, it is not an economic act. It is a signal of some kind, a move in an opaque chess game, whose players are nowhere near as smart as they think they are.
- bamboozled 11mo agoSo not 4d chess ?
- zafarrancho 11mo agoInteresting. Do you have any examples?
- scrps 11mo agoI always thought the opposite was true like whales breaking up orders for various reasons like not moving the market too much over things like portfolio adjustments, secrecy, etc?
- ralfd 11mo agoI guess his fund did obfuscate the selling, or the selloff would have been known before the legally required disclosure.
- deleted 11mo ago[deleted]
- BurningFrog 11mo ago"Someone like this" leaves a ton to the reader's imagination.
- markus_zhang 11mo agoMaybe this? Finance is the gun. Politics is to know when to pull the trigger!
- amelius 11mo agoOr maybe he just found out he suffers from some incurable disorder and now needs the money to build research centers to find a cure, because AI won't help obviously.
- xenospn 11mo agoPerhaps looking for a new ivory back scratcher?
- kotaKat 11mo agoPalantir is looking to buy the American Red Cross, for... other reasons.
- spacecadet 11mo agolol he is literally Bob Page from Deus Ex... taking over "fema" and all.
- foolfoolz 11mo agobob page did nothing wrong, he just wanted to be a god like everyone else
- buybuybuy 11mo agoShould we all buy stock in Nvidia now? It’s not like Peter Thiel is Warren Buffet or anything. And Warren Buffett is buying Alphabet.
- surgical_fire 11mo agoYes, you should. Every grift needs bagholders.
- TheAlchemist 11mo agoWarren Buffett is buying Alphabet out of neceessity - he already sold most of what he could sell and has way too much cash on hand - he just need to buy 'something' - Alphabet seems like the least overvalued big stock out there.
- scarmig 11mo agoIs he required to buy stock? AFAIK he could just as well hold cash or bonds, and if he believes a bubble pop is imminent (within the next couple months), that would be a responsible move.
- pojzon 11mo agoThing is, people dont know what will happen if this bubble bursts. Its so big that it could take with it whole global market. There is no safe asset you can turn into in such a case, digital money would literally mean nothing when whole financial system collapses.
- redwood 11mo agoHaving heartburn after making a $100M bet on hucksters? https://www.wsj.com/tech/peter-thiel-backed-startup-secures-100-million-to-make-chips-in-u-s-baff93ac https://www.wsj.com/tech/peter-thiel-backed-startup-secures-...
- djmips 11mo agoHave any juicy articles to back up your unsubstantiated claim?
- redwood 11mo agoFrom HN the other week https://foxchapelresearch.substack.com/p/i-think-substrate-is-fraudulent-part https://foxchapelresearch.substack.com/p/i-think-substrate-i...
- djmips 11mo ago₍⍨₎ Yikes!
- red-iron-pine 11mo agoThe founder is a known con artist involved in such other things as solving nuclear fusion and stealing $2.5M in a Kickstarter scam. The cofounder is the founder’s brother and has literally zero documented professional or academic experience. The company’s job postings are nonsensical and AI-generated. The company is unwilling to evidence any of its (extremely extraordinary) claims, which have been made on a timescale that makes no sense in the context of the semiconductor industry. The company’s research facility is, based on photographs that they’ve published, at least two orders of magnitude smaller than what would be necessary.
- hactually 11mo agoI'd say he's wanting to lock in those gains. Diamond hands are different when you're up 100s of millions on a single stock.
- dmix 11mo agoYeah everyone wants a conspiracy when the obvious signal is that he already made insane amounts of money off the stock spiking so high and he wants to diversify it on other stuff instead of continuing to gamble on a big one. Which is also what the article says he is doing.
- dehrmann 11mo agoAnd Nvidia has a target on its back right now. It's priced like it's the only game in town, but AMD, Google, Meta and Intel have varying degrees of competing chips for AI use.
- lostmsu 11mo ago> Meta and Intel ?
- dehrmann 11mo agoMeta: https://ai.meta.com/blog/next-generation-meta-training-inference-accelerator-AI-MTIA/ https://ai.meta.com/blog/next-generation-meta-training-infer... They don't sell it, but they could if Nvidia started charging too much, and some of these are going into Meta datacenters instead of Nvidia. Intel makes the Arc. It's probably the least viable competitor in that list, but the fundamentals are there, so some about of focus and investment could result in a viable competitor.
- Libidinalecon 11mo agoEven the shoeshine boy is giving stock tips about the AI bubble and selling NVDA. I think we are in an insane LLM/compute bubble but I just put long trades on in Palantir and Nvidia the past few days. Sentiment is just so one sided right now.
- deleted 11mo ago[deleted]
- standardUser 11mo agoMaybe it means something if it's insider trading, but otherwise I'm not taking advice from a man who is clearly haunted by some political obsession and willing to act against his own financial interest in pursuit of it.
- toxicdevil 11mo ago> Over 537,000 shares, which represent nearly 40% of the entire portfolio @190/share this is $102 million Also: > Vistra Energy, another 19% chunk, was wiped out as well. > Moreover, the fund’s turnover hovered over 80%, leaving just three holdings: Tesla, Microsoft, and Apple. Some would argue that tesla is a bigger bubble. > his personal net worth is an eye-popping $16.3 billion as of 2025.
- pinkmuffinere 11mo agoYa Im shocked he continues to hold Tesla…
- maratc 11mo agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PayPal_Mafia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PayPal_Mafia
- bookofjoe 11mo agoPayPal mafia be tight
- seizethecheese 11mo agoHe has said on multiple occasions to never bet against Elon (though that’s different than betting on him).
- pinkmuffinere 11mo agoI appreciate that his actions match his words, at the very least
- mondrian 11mo agoSo this 'portfolio' is <200M on a net worth of 16B? This is like someone worth 1M selling $600 worth of stock.
- brador 11mo ago
- awestroke 11mo agoProbably wants more liquidity to funnel into the pain and suffering industry
- jameslk 11mo agoNo need to guess, the article literally states where the money went: > That’s why Thiel rotated into Microsoft and Apple, tech giants with more diversified revenue streams, cloud scale, devices, and software.
- zetanor 11mo agoRotated into pain and suffering indeed.
- mensetmanusman 11mo agoAds on my desktop. Windows crashes that prevent me from filling my car at the tank.
- jmye 11mo agoMoving into Apple, given the potential risk/uncertainty in a new CEO and no real new revenue streams, is an interesting choice. I guess maybe it feels relatively safe? But even then, if there's any real downturn, they seem pretty at risk, as the 'luxury' brand.
- jameslk 11mo ago> That’s why Thiel rotated into Microsoft and Apple, tech giants with more diversified revenue streams, cloud scale, devices, and software. These are supposed to be a hedge against a presumed AI bubble? Seems half hearted at best
- pinkmuffinere 11mo agoHe is diversifying away from a pure AI play. The amount of diversification is relatively low, so he probably still believes in AI, just feels it is slightly overhyped. Personally I agree it’s too small of a move, but different people have different beliefs and different tolerance for risk.
- ytrt54e 11mo agoPaperwork filed after market closed on Friday... some might take it as a bad omen, but Nvidia is showing as up 1/2% after hours.
- adrianco 11mo agoIt’s a bubble. Buy low and sell high. Right now, holding cash is the safe option. You can predict that the bubble will burst, but not when. However with the US being run by someone who is poking everything with sharp implements I think it bursts sooner.
- jameslk 11mo agoCash is just another asset class, and since becoming a pure fiat it’s never been a good one: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL Given the fiscal dominance we’re in now that pretty much guarantees higher rates of inflation in the future, I think there’s much better places to place your money if you want to diversify. At least cash equivalents would be better
- mondrian 11mo agoThe parent comment is probably just talking about temporarily timing the bubble pop.
- simianwords 11mo agoHow are you so sure it is a bubble?
- Animats 11mo agoOne to zero, here we come?
- rvz 11mo agoWe are 1 day before the year 2000.
- iammjm 11mo agoPeter Thiel the guy that believes that the literal biblical antichrist is walking amongst us? How much rational thought can one really expect from this guy? I am not questioning AI being a good investment or not, I am questioning this dude's sanity
- jamesblonde 11mo agoHe's scarily sane. I am not joking when I say he invented the anti-christ thing as a way to entrench the billionaire class. He's basically saying the anti-christ will be somebody who want to solve the world's problems through collective action. So collective action is bad. We are in such an unbalanced world, that that is the best argument he can come up with for why we should allow such wealth inequality in society.
- fullshark 11mo agoYeah it's funny when you read his antichrist ramblings, it's essentially the antichrist will come in the form of a leader arguing for wealth redistribution via collective action. This is what instills sheer terror in the billionaire class.
- deleted 11mo ago[deleted]
- lisbbb 11mo agoI'm pretty sure the antichrist is that sports betting guy, Dave Portnoy? The good news is that he's low key, it's kind of a more casual antichrist this time around getting everyone addicted to gambling.
- EarlKing 11mo agoThen how about SoftBank[1]... are they irrational? Or Michael Burry[2] who shorted Nvidia and Palantir before concluding the market is once against being irrational and selling his positions and closing his hedge fund... is he irrational? The people in a position to know are telling you something: This is a Bubble, and they're getting the hell out while they're ahead. You should do the same. -- [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/11/softbank-sells-its-entire-stake-in-nvidia-for-5point83-billion.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/11/softbank-sells-its-entire-st... [2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-shot-michael-burrys-ai-143000736.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-shot-michael-burrys-ai-14...
- aestetix 11mo agoIt's because he knows about the Antichrist.
- mattas 11mo agoThe market can stay irrational longer than even Peter Thiel can stay solvent.
- sien 11mo agoThiel is worth 25 Bn according to some sources, 16 Bn according the article. In this case surely there will be an AI correction before Thiel runs out of money.
- throwacct 11mo agoI mean, he bought low and now he's selling when the stock is high. What else can we expect?
- ck2 11mo agogoogle Peter Thiel and Rockbridge and be afraid, it makes Project2025 pale in comparison (starting point for the lazy https://authoritarian-stack.info https://authoritarian-stack.info )
- adabyron 11mo agoWhat's interesting is that Thiel added MSFT but the Gates Foundation just reduced it by almost 2/3 and it was their biggest holding - https://hedgefollow.com/funds/Gates+Foundation+Trust https://hedgefollow.com/funds/Gates+Foundation+Trust
- drumhead 11mo agoIf there is a bubble then the hyperscalers with dominant market shares and big cashflows are most likely to survive if it bursts. Google, MSFT and Amazon. Oracle are on very shaky ground. Their bonds are selling at a discount to par, even though interest rates are dropping, and their debt to equity ratio is nearing 400%. AI is an existential bet for them, but not so much for the others.
- gnarlouse 11mo agoPeter Thiel is in the epstein files.
- cindyllm 11mo ago[dead]
- ggm 11mo agoHe's seen a better investment opportunity and is maximising his profit to target it. I think this says less about Nvidia than people think. What interests me is what he will put in to? What kind of investment is he targetting? Pet sitting service for after the uplift to heaven has a low ROI. I don't think his eschatology informs his money sense.
- djmips 11mo agoMicrosoft and Apple? per article. Not very mind-blowing
- srameshc 11mo agoCould it all be triggered by the study : Gartner Says Agentic AI Supply Exceeds Demand, Market Correction Looms ? https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2025-10-07-gartner-says-agentic-ai-supply-exceeds-demand-market-correction-looms https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2025-10-0...
- marcyb5st 11mo agointeresting. For me charts and CSS are broken though, so I couldn't really see figures
- markus_zhang 11mo agoI think people like Peter Thiel has the insider view of the whole sector, so I would not discount this just because I don’t align with him on political stuffs. But again we never know his real positions.
- mightyham 11mo agoI agree that it's very difficult to fully understand what his real positions are, and interestingly I think he clearly wants that to be the case. Peter Thiel is interested in and has actually written extensively about Straussianism which is an intellectual movement obsessed with analyzing esoteric meanings in philosophical literature.
- kibibu 11mo agoReading his recent "Greta Thunberg Is The Antichrist" stuff leads me to believe the Peter Thiel: - Is deeply unscientific, coming across as a highfalutin paranoid QAnon; and - Has zero self-awareness That said, he has plenty of money and connections, so moves like these are likely well justified.
- gsf_emergency_4 11mo agoDetailed perspective from someone with insight into Thiel's thinking https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-6LakOrqDL4&t=1s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-6LakOrqDL4&t=1s That watched, imho Thiel is interested in the post-Straussian tension between "thinking in the open" (ideal science) and "focussed value creation" (which is best done behind closed doors) AI as driven by premium mediocre Millennials combines the worst of both: lazy group-think promoted by stochastic parrots, expensive hardware weaponized by people who didn't earn that privilege Capitalism or communism is a false dichotomy. You'd want any given pre-Jedi to access the Force, build their own lightsabers (in a cave), but not turn to the dark side. GitHub serves Midichlorians. NVDA serves the Federation (and is one of the deadly sins to boot)
- rstuart4133 11mo ago
- _dain_ 11mo agoextremely low IQ / reddit comments ITT
- porridgeraisin 11mo agoYeah noticed it too. I wonder why
- amelius 11mo agoIt would make sense if he used to money to buy TSMC or ASML instead.
- bgwalter 11mo agoAssuming he is correct (I think he is) and Nvidia goes down sharply, it will take AMD, Intel etc. with it. Usually the equipment makers and fabs go down with them, many times even at a higher percentage.
- andsoitis 11mo agoMSFT and AAPL seem like better ways to diversify your money away from chips, while keeping it in technology.
- drumhead 11mo agoAPPL is the best bet as it doesnt have any exposure to AI. MSFT has spent a truckload of money on datacentres, if AI doesnt deliver they're going to face a huge drag on earnings because of the overinvestment.
- ethbr1 11mo agoMicrosoft has the same struggle as Facebook and Google. If AI matures into the next big thing, it risks wiping them out of their dominant positions if they don't spend to keep pace. If it doesn't, then they just blew a bunch of money but are still dominant players, with an existential threat in the rearview. Given the relative risks, they'd be foolish not to pump some of their cash flow into AI for a few years until the pace settles.
- javier2 11mo agoMeta and Alphabet are mostly ads + desperately trying to find other ways to make as much money as ads
- an0malous 11mo agoI’ve never seen so much cope in a single HN thread. Suddenly no one cares about Occam’s Razor
- diamond559 11mo agoThis crowd is heavily invested/works in tech, nobody wants to admit they are wrong or that their wealth is an illusion.
- yalogin 11mo agoThis is concerning for sure. Looks like we may be getting the trigger for a sell off soon.
- drumhead 11mo agoIt'll come from the other bubble in financial markets, Private Credit. There have been quite a few bankruptcies and problems emerging there, and they're stepping up to be major funders for the AI capex boom.
- mmaunder 11mo agoInvestor sentiment and fundamentals are distant relatives. If fear takes hold and enters a spiral, revenue growth and fundamentals go out the window.
- jayess 11mo agoI wonder if he still holds all that in his Roth IRA.
- sota_pop 11mo ago100% is a serious move. Taken alone, I might not think much, but given the SoftBank exit recently, Jensen’s trading activity, Gates selling so much MSFT, Buffett’s recent trading activity, Trump’s recent trading activity, and the interesting observation from Michael Burry, this does not bode well for NVDA in the short/mid term. Burry’s critique was actually refreshingly novel compared to the “it’s a bubble lmao” type of comments I normally see. Can anyone expand on the validity of his “hardware depreciation” thesis? I’ve always understood typical corporate hardware cycle to be ~3 years. I don’t run it that hot, but my 3080 is still running strong with no signs of performance issues (except the fact that 10GB is not much vram these days). Plus doesn’t everyone (big corps) just buy the new generation every single year?
- JCM9 11mo agoAt this point if you don’t think AI is a bubble then I don’t know what to tell you.
- lostmsu 11mo agoTell me why quantum mechanics stops at SU(3) in SU(3) x SU(2) x U(1) symmetry group.
- antasvara 11mo agoThis could be anything, so making a sweeping generalization is premature IMO. It could be insider knowledge that Intel/AMD/other has made a huge step forward and has reduced Nvidia's moat (unlikely considering his public support for Nvidia's hardware, but possible). It could be that the AI bubble is popping. It could be that he wants to "lock in" the gains that Nvidia has made; having that much capital in one company tied to a pretty volatile sector is risky. Maybe he thinks that the beneficiaries of AI will be B2B companies like Microsoft with connections to most major businesses. Maybe it's a changing view on how much compute will be needed to fuel AI developments moving forward. And this is just the list I could thing of off the top of my head. There are plenty of other reasons this move could be happening. Absent an inside line on Thiel, anything else is speculation.
- drumhead 11mo agoFirst it was Softbank and now its Thiel. Major sales coming from two of the ultimate tech insiders is probably a very good sell signal. Whether or not its the top is another question. Markets as we know can go higher longer than we think, Michael Burry shut down his hedge fund because he may have started shorting too soon. One of the funds that Meta were working with to finance their spending on AI, Blue Owl, had to stop redemptions on of their private credit funds merging it with another one of their bigger funds, leaving holders facing a 20% haircut. There also seem to be emerging liquidity issues with banks. The money for the AI gravy train might be running out.
- rsanek 11mo agodidn't softbank sell only to invest more into other ai investments?
- sota_pop 11mo agoI thought I read specifically with the intention of putting it into OpenAI directly, but yes they said they wanted to “pursue other ventures in the area of AI”.
- drumhead 11mo agoYes, but whether they will remains to be seen. They needed a reason to sell out without it looking like they were selling out at the top.
- garspin 11mo agoMaking $$$ & keeping them are 2 different skills. He's demonstrated the former 16B times, now he's demonstrating the latter. The big downside risk I see for Nvidia is a garage startup inventing a more efficient AI algo.... that only needs 20W to run.
- NaomiLehman 11mo agostill a more efficient algo would be better run on gigawatts of compute
- cloverich 11mo agoPossibly that is how you get the world we all know and live in today ^^
- spwa4 11mo agoDoes it? There's no guarantee that algorithms receive any benefit from scale. Some don't. And of course, in support of such an algorithm existing you have humans. Clearly AGI is present in human minds, and it apparently runs on about 20W of power.
- JoeDohn 11mo ago-- Nvidia ++ Microsoft This sounds a lot like what SoftBank did : sold Nvidia, then invested (will invest?) in OpenAI. I guess the AI market's hit a point where hardware demand is pretty stable, and software demand is where all the juice is now?
- deleted 11mo ago[deleted]
- zrn900 11mo agoThe main reason is likely this: https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/alibaba-says-new-pooling-system-cut-nvidia-gpu-use-by-82-percent https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/al... AliBaba succeeded in reducing GPU usage by 82%. On top of the improvements made by models like Deepseek, it looks like AI will be much more efficient than initially thought. As a result, there should be much less demand for GPUs compared to the ridiculous demand that was being pitched. Note that Softbank also sold all its Nvidia shares.
- nurettin 11mo agoEven if you reduce computing requirements for inference by 99.999% there is still enough demand to saturate all high end cards for decades.
- 1vuio0pswjnm7 11mo agoSoftBank Sells $5.8 Billion Stake in Nvidia to Pay for OpenAI Deals https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/11/business/dealbook/softbank-nvidia-divest.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/11/business/dealbook/softban...
- coolThingsFirst 11mo agoIt's over time to burst this bubble. It's going nowhere.
- deadeye 11mo agoI think it might be a reflection that there is no more power to run more chips, so chip sales will drop.
- iJohnDoe 11mo agoOr maybe, just maybe, they are just making a quick buck because this is the highest NVIDIA stock has ever been? Maybe not complicated. Just filling their pockets with money?
- 1vuio0pswjnm7 11mo agoSoftBank sells its entire stake in Nvidia for $5.83 billion https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/11/softbank-sells-its-entire-stake-in-nvidia-for-5point83-billion.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/11/softbank-sells-its-entire-st...
- deleted 11mo ago[deleted]