5 ms·
US startup Substrate announces chipmaking tool that it says will rival ASML
- ksec 11mo agoSomewhere along the line people have to realise most of the cost in chip design goes to software. So while it is nice to have some competition to ASML, it wouldn't change the cost equation as much as people expect. And yes, ASML also have their own version using X-Ray in the pipeline.
- taldo 11mo agoYou mean the cost of EDA software directly (paying Synopsys/Cadence for the software used to design, verify, and synthesize your own chips)? Or the actual R&D cost to design the chip itself? Or paying for prepackaged IP blocks (major ones like CPU cores, or lesser ones like I/O)?
- DeonRob 11mo agothis has 0 to do with price and if they win the fact that the US will choose its local competitor over them wouldnt be because of price
- B1FF_PSUVM 11mo ago> local competitor Meh, ASML could be ordered to move to the US and they would comply. It's not necessary, cf. Nexperia.
- fennecbutt 11mo agoI should hope that they wouldn't. In fact I presume they wouldn't. Without ASML or TSMC, some of the most valuable American companies would be fucked.
- ChrisArchitect 11mo agoRelated: Can Substrate disrupt ASML using particle acceleration? https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/technology/can-a-start-up-make-computer-chips-cheaper-than-the-industrys-giants.html?unlocked_article_code=1.xE8.CukP.AIVImr6--z1y&smid=url-share https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/technology/can-a-start-up... (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45732431 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45732431) See also: Return to Silicon Valley https://substrate.com/our-purpose https://substrate.com/our-purpose (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45741489 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45741489)
- toomuchtodo 11mo agoAn investigation into Substrate - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45767013 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45767013 - November 2025
- cowthulhu 11mo agoThis doesn’t seem plausible. Leading edge lithography requires you to be at (or beyond) the cutting edge in many realms - even with a breakthrough in one realm, I don’t understand how a startup could expect to catch up to ASML across the board in a few years. Their website is light on technical details and heavy on nationalistic fluff, which does not lend much confidence.
- deleted 11mo ago[deleted]
- enraged_camel 11mo agoTheir website is that way because the goal is to attract the attention of the administration.
- dustbunny 11mo agoExactly. And it should. The "CHIPS Act" should be thought of as a perpetual blank cheque to whoever can build the components necessary to build war machines completely with North American components (primarily USA components but Canada will have some impact)
- freejazz 11mo agoBut its a scam.
- terminalshort 11mo agoI don't know much about the technical details of lithography, but I do know that EUV lithography is very new tech that has been in production for less than 10 years and the current machines are basically rube goldberg devices. Given my lack of technical knowledge here, I can't say whether or nor this startup in particular is legit, but it does seem very much like the type of thing that could be disrupted by someone who comes up with a new and massively simplified design.
- 11mo ago
- hulitu 11mo ago> US startup Substrate announces chipmaking tool that it says will rival ASML Typical investor bullshitting. They have some pictures. No process. Nothing
- HatchedLake721 11mo ago> If you show revenue, people will ask 'HOW MUCH?' and it will never be enough. The company that was the 100xer, the 1000xer is suddenly the 2x dog. But if you have NO revenue, you can say you're pre-revenue! You're a potential pure play... It's not about how much you earn, it's about how much you're worth. And who is worth the most? Companies that lose money!
- jgon 11mo agoJust a few days ago this company came up on HN as part of a substack post which pointed out the numerous warning signs that this company is likely a scam, so its crazy to see them given so much credulous reporting from mainstream media. After persuasively demonstrating an inability to ship a fancy alarm clock even with 100MM in funding at his last startup, the founder has now decided to turn his attention to easily surmounting the decades of insane hard science and engineering that forms ASML's moat. Of course if this goes the way of the alarm clock startup there's also the fusion startup he's running that could form a fallback... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45767013 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45767013
- terminalshort 11mo agoIt's not crazy. It's routine. That's what the mainstream media does best. Remember just a couple months ago when the mainstream media bought the line that a standard SMS fraud operation was actually a terrorist thread against the UN?
- smartbit 11mo ago> the decades of insane hard science and engineering Don’t forget the Century of engineering knowledge at Zeiss who deliver the mirrors in the ASML machines. See below https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45745536#45813952 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45745536#45813952
- RhysabOweyn 11mo agoThe issue with x-ray lithography has always been... the cost. Just the cost of making a mask for one of these systems makes it unusable in industry. Would be interested to hear what they did to get costs down.
- chasil 11mo agoJapan has also made some strides in this area, reported here a few months ago. "Professor Shintake aligned two axis-symmetric mirrors in a straight line and used a total of only four mirrors instead of ten. "Because highly absorbent EUV light weakens by 40% with each reflection, only about 1% of the energy from the light source reaches the wafer when bounced off ten mirrors while more than 10% does when only four mirrors are used." https://asiatimes.com/2024/08/japan-on-edge-of-euv-lithography-chip-making-revolution/ https://asiatimes.com/2024/08/japan-on-edge-of-euv-lithograp... Edit: "Substrate said that it has developed a version of lithography that uses X-ray light."
- giva 11mo ago"X-ray light" sound a bit like beer soda.
- terminalshort 11mo ago"X-ray" is just a word for light that falls within an arbitrary band of wavelength.
- giantg2 11mo agoI think you have it backwards - light is a term used for specific bands of the EM spectrum. Nobody is calling their FM radio waves light emissions. Unless this is a naming collison with the already established x-rays.
- CamperBob2 11mo agoIt's an established term in physics. E.g., https://lightsources.org/ https://lightsources.org/
- mikkupikku 11mo agoEverybody says "ultraviolet light" even though it's invisible.
- pshirshov 11mo agoI can announce a warp drive and a picometer chip process, just give a dollar, pretty please.
- glimshe 11mo agoThey seem to have learned a lot from Theranos. I wonder if they will have the same fate.
- ghc 11mo agoI'll believe it when they ship.
- Ekaros 11mo agoWhen will production line be build and operational? When will the new chips ship? This or next quarter?
- deleted 11mo ago[deleted]
- chrsw 11mo agoIf this is even legit, they're saying 3 years. So probably 5 years.
- dbcooper 11mo agoWhat chemistry would they use for the photoresist type resins?
- sampton 11mo agoSamsung has access to the same ASML tools but has much lower yield than TSMC. Chip making is hard.
- mnky9800n 11mo agoSo if I have no values at all VCs will give me millions? That must be what I’m doing wrong.
- klelatti 11mo agoThe same guys who couldn’t develop a sleep tracker? https://open.substack.com/pub/foxchapelresearch/p/i-think-substrate-is-fraudulent-part https://open.substack.com/pub/foxchapelresearch/p/i-think-su... Edit please note the comments in the linked post by SemiAnalysis below who have lots of reports that the tool is legit but who are skeptical. They have clearly progressed somewhat since the tracker project!
- seandoe 11mo agoWow, total scam. Sad.
- dashundchen 11mo agoAlready in bed with Peter Thiel, and by his twitter, ingratiating himself with Vance, Trump and Lutnick. Breathless branding with the word "America" in every other sentence. How long before the Trump admin decides to throw federal funds into the grift so these "investors" get paid?
- miohtama 11mo agoThey are called 'freedom chips'
- mikkupikku 11mo agoThey're probably hoping to grab as much investor money as they can before getting a presidential pardon, like that Nikola guy.
- dskhatri 11mo agoIt is wild that the founders have very little experience in the space, and that their claims are based on sparse research. That said, the Substack article doesn't seem any more credible. Other than the name DC Fusion LLC, I missed any indications that the founder was working on a fusion startup. The article correctly identifies as an opinion piece but doesn't seem worthy of credible referencing.
- 11mo ago
- caycep 11mo agostratechery had an interview w the founder, an interesting Brit but also a Thiel acolyte/investee, for better or worse. Ben also has tended a little too ...uncritical of tech boosterism these days, but I suppose the interview is good data
- Cornbilly 11mo agoMore Silicon Valley fraud that will likely be rewarded by the current administration.
- FpUser 11mo ago>"at a high rate of throughput" will "high rate" or "high throughput" do or it is just me?
- jmyeet 11mo agoYou know who is going to develop cutting edge EUV+ lithography to rival ASML? It's not this startup (most likely). It's China. Chipmaking is in a very weird geopolitical state and it has national security interests for most of the world. A Dutch company produces the machines to make chips and sells them to Taiwanese companies. The US still has the power to dictate who ASML can sell to and China is restricted. This system has a number of flaws: 1. With this administration torching US influence at a never-seen-before rate, the US may no longer be able to dictate terms to ASML. At some point, it's all going to be too much for the EU; 2. Taiwan is disputed territory. This statement tends to make people mad but it's true. China claims it as China but, more importantly, the One China policy is official policy of the US [1] and the EU. Yet the US also has a defence pact with Taiwan. Not that it matters because China simply doesn't have the military capability to invade Taiwan and I honestly don't think they would anyway; and 3. The US has basically lost the ability to fab chips. Yes, Intel exists but they are a shadow of their former selves. The CHIPS Act tried to rectify this but even if this administration hadn't basically abandoned it, I don't think the US can see this one through regardless of administration. It's too long term. Any US company now that gets government aid just uses it on more executive compensation and share buybacks. Everything is now so financialized that any ability to produce anything is really just inertia from a bygone era. China has the exact same national security concerns except it has a proven track record of investing in and delivering long-term projects. [1]: https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-us-one-china-policy-and-why-does-it-matter https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-us-one-china-policy-and-w...
- blackoil 11mo agoChip making is one of the unique tech which is at the farthest end of humanity's engineering capabilities. Not just ASML, its entire supply chain is full of extremely precise components which 1 or 2 companies have mastered. e.g. the mirrors used are so precise that if scaled to size of earth tallest mountain will be 1cm high. Sure China will make it one day and maybe will beat rest of the world, it is not given to be in near future.
- MangoCoffee 11mo agohttps://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20190709009300320 https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20190709009300320 "Samsung is a major buyer of Japanese chemical companies producing fluorine polyimide used to make flexible OLED displays, as well as resist and etching gas needed in the semiconductor fabrication process." Samsung's CEO went to Japan to try and secure Japan's chemicals back in 2019 during the bad blood between South Korea and Japan. China will have to take on the entire supply chain from chemicals, machines and talents if they want to avoid a chokehold. That's a very tall order.
- hasperdi 11mo agoRegular viewers of Asianometry channel will probably know that this is unlikely
- Interesco 11mo agoHere are two statements from some of the investors: https://www.longjourney.vc/news/cyans-substrate-tattoo https://www.longjourney.vc/news/cyans-substrate-tattoo https://www.generalcatalyst.com/stories/our-investment-in-substrate https://www.generalcatalyst.com/stories/our-investment-in-su... From a VC perspective, it does make sense to invest in EUV equipment tech. Being successful immediately makes the company one of the most important in the world (and opens up a $15B+ market).
- deleted 11mo ago[deleted]