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This is less useful than most people expected. Redwood has been struggling because the expected battery turnover is not occurring. EV batteries are lasting

• jeffbee 1y ago
  There is one constant to all these conversations and that is Silicon Valley tech dudes are grossly misinformed about the lifecycle of things. Solar panels don't wear out, batteries don't wear out as fast as they used to. This is evidenced both by undertaking weird dead-end startup ideas, and being susceptible to propaganda about the supposed downsides of solar energy and batteries.
• pfdietz 1y ago
  So, basically the same reason recycling of PV modules hasn't taken off.
  • Rebelgecko 1y ago
    I've been intrigued by used solar panels for sale, seems like you can get an amazing price for ones that are only lightly degraded. Is there a downside, or do you just mean that it isn't popular currently?
    • jeffbee 1y ago
      I think they were referring to the fact that the chief reason there is not large-scale PV panel recycling is that very few panels have ever been retired. It turns out that short of physical destruction by hail etc a PV panel does not degrade beyond economic usefulness simply by being out in the sun. In fact some panels actually get more powerful. The surprising-to-some conclusion of NREL's PV Lifetime Project is that the economic lifetime of a PV panel is basically forever.
    • hnaccount_rng 1y ago
      In addition to my sibling comment: The cost of the panels is a rather small fraction of the total cost of a typical installation. Most of that cost ist labor, some regulatory requirements and the inverter. Whether you pay a factor of 2 for the panels or not typically doesn't matter. In other words: Reusing used panels will only ever be able to safe you a minuscule amount.
      • pfdietz 1y ago
        The low cost of the modules themselves has led to the suggestion of cost optimized DC-coupled PV systems being used to directly drive resistive heaters. The cost per unit of thermal energy in a cost optimized system moderate scale system (> residential, < utility scale) may be in the range of $3-5/GJ, very competitive with natural gas. Low cost maximum power point trackers would be useful; inverters would not be needed. Low cost modules allow one to do away with things like optimally tilted modules and single axis tracking. The modules can also be tightly packed, reducing mounting and wiring costs.
        • maxerickson 1y ago
          What's the proposed system design? For example, in January, I get about 9 hours of sunlight and have an average daily high of 25 F. I'm gonna need to store heat somehow or another.
          • pfdietz 1y ago
            The place I saw this most clearly described was in Standard Thermal's concept, which will store the heat in huge piles of dirt heated to 600 C. The thermal time constant of such piles can be many years. https://www.orcasciences.com/articles/standard-thermal-copy https://www.orcasciences.com/articles/standard-thermal-copy https://austinvernon.substack.com/p/building-ultra-cheap-energy-storage https://austinvernon.substack.com/p/building-ultra-cheap-ene... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45012942 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45012942
            • 1y ago
    • duskwuff 1y ago
      How much of a difference does it actually make in terms of the all-inclusive price of installation (e.g. panels, inverters, mounting hardware, and labor)? (Asking because I genuinely don't know, not because I have a specific answer in mind.)
      • hinkley 1y ago
        Find an installer who will warranty work using third party let alone used solar panels and then we can talk.
      • Rebelgecko 1y ago
        Labor is by far the top cost. But I'm intrigued by the economics of a small setups paired with like a <5kwh battery. And for something like that where you literally just throw 4-6 panels out, you can just brute force by buying more panels instead of optimizing angles. Basically a slightly beefier version of a European balcony setup
    • bityard 1y ago
      Used panels are cheap because of where we are in the improvement curve. Let's say you're a large business with a factory rooftop full of 100W panels that was installed installed 10 years ago. Today, you can upgrade that rooftop to 300W panels without any additional footprint and often for less than the original deployment cost (adjusted for inflation). Those old panels have to go somewhere and still have at least 2/3 of their life left. Probably more because we're finding out that well-made panels do not degrade as quickly as previously thought. The used panel market (in the US anyway) might dry up soon if the tariffs stay in place, as that will make a lot of customers reluctant to upgrade due to greatly increased costs. But I guess we'll see. I've been wrong before.
• dylan604 1y ago
  From TFA: David Roberts When did automotive batteries become the majority of your input by volume? Colin Campbell That is a good question. David Roberts Was it recent or was that early on? Colin Campbell I would say the transition to EV batteries dominating what we received, it’s been in the last year or 18 months. David Roberts So the front edge of a very large wave of batteries has begun to arrive? Colin Campbell Yeah, the wave is out there, it’s coming. The waters have finally started to arrive at the beach here.
  • bryanlarsen 1y ago
    Reading between the lines of the corporate speak will validate my point. Redwood was founded in 2017.
    • dylan604 1y ago
      "It’s the largest microgrid in North America and it’s the largest second-energy storage site in the world. So that’s like you said at the top, it’s a 12-megawatt AC, 63-megawatt-hour grid supporting about 2 or 3 megawatts of data centers and run by solar. So all the energy comes from another 12 megawatts of solar." Sure, so while not supplying power to a city, they are proving this is viable. Just because it's not "turn off the coal plants now" moment doesn't mean this isn't a very good direction. Everyone has to start and grow. I don't understand the whole shit on something because it's not an immediate solve. If these guys waited until 2040 to start the business, well, that'd just be dumb. It essentially sounds like capacity will just continue to increase year over year, maybe around 2040 there will be a huge spike. Doesn't seem like anything is wrong here.
  • jeffbee 1y ago
    He's just talking his book. Their deployment this year was 1/4000th share of the BESS market.
    • dylan604 1y ago
      Battery Energy Storage System for anyone else like me that has no knowledge of this world and their acronyms.
• ACCount37 1y ago
  A lot of the early EV battery life projections were based on Nissan Leaf Gen 1. Which had a horrendous battery pack that combined poor choice of chemistry, aggressive usage and a complete lack of active cooling. When EVs with good battery pack engineering started hitting the streets, they outperformed those early projections by a lot. And by now, it's getting clear that battery pack isn't as much of a concern - with some of the better designs, like in early Teslas, losing about 5-15% of their capacity over a decade of use.
  • cogman10 1y ago
    I'll defend the leaf a little. LiPo batteries were quiet expensive when it was initially released. NiMH was really the only option in town. And with a lower energy density battery that's also heavier, adding a cooling system would have also added a bunch of weight to the already heavy car with a barely usable range of 100 miles. Gen 2, however, had no excuses. They had every opportunity to add active cooling and they still decided to go with just air cooling.
    • wcfields 1y ago
      On the used market you'll find absolutely cooked (literally) Leafs whose first life was in Arizona and barely have enough range to back out of the driveway.
      • londons_explore 1y ago
        I have a gen 1 leaf with a remaining range of about 500 yards if you drive gently... I use it in my driveway to make it look to thieves like someone is home (round me, houses with no car get broken into).
        • Marsymars 1y ago
          Sounds like an old Roomba I used to have that could clean for about 2 minutes before it ran out of juice.
      • 1y ago
• whatever1 1y ago
  We are only 5-6 years into the car ev market. Tesla model 3 started being sold in 2018 in meaningful numbers
  • cogman10 1y ago
    Still have mine. Battery capacity is around 80% of the new capacity. I'm not planning on switching anytime soon as it's got plenty of range still. I'll probably swap the pack out when it hits 70% in the next 2 or 3 years.
    • bryanlarsen 1y ago
      It probably will take a lot longer than that to hit 70%. Degradation on Tesla batteries slows down considerably after it hits 85%. there are exceptions, though.
    • beAbU 1y ago
      Your 2018 tesla has a battery SOH of 80%? How many km's on the clock, and how often do you fast charge if you dont mind me asking? To me that SOH stat sounds really bad!
      • dzhiurgis 1y ago
        I agree, reads like carefully crafted FUD.
        • cogman10 1y ago
          What possible motivation would I have to spread FUD about my own car? To me this is perfectly reasonable degradation after 7 years of ownership with the number of miles I have. There is also just an element of luck that's involved. Batteries degrade at different rates and there's not really any accounting for it.
      • cogman10 1y ago
        270,000 km. And fast charging about 3 times a year. If I were to guess, the main factor harming the battery is my garage gets pretty hot in the summer (37 or 38C)
• p1necone 1y ago
  > "most people" "most people" even now are just parroting dumb FUD they read on facebook. You really shouldn't give any weight to the opinions of laypeople on topics that are as heavily propagandized and politically charged as renewable energy.
• p0w3n3d 1y ago
  Tesla batteries fail after 8 years at least from models up to 2014
  • stetrain 1y ago
    The number of Teslas sold up to 2014 is less than 1% of all Teslas sold. Tesla has an 8-year battery and drivetrain warranty but they don't necessarily fail after that date.
    • p0w3n3d 1y ago
      there is an ubiquitous failure of Panasonic-created cells for Tesla. I made a research on forums, because I wanted one, and investigated why there is such a price drop. Cars getting close to the age of 8 years immediately drop on price to even 10k usd. It's because if you get your battery replaced on warranty - you won. Otherwise it often deteriorates suddenly.
      • stetrain 1y ago
        It’s understandable that people would avoid out of warrant EVs, we don’t have that many years of data on old EVs yet. Anecdotal forum posts are not a great source of statistical data.
  • trhway 1y ago
    Prius Plugin 2015 (last year of that model) - full charge/discharge at least 3-4 times a week, currently still a bit more than 80% of capacity (granted the battery seems somewhat overbuilt, yet it is normally does 10-15C which is much tougher mode than in a pure EV where 2-3C is usually enough and only high-end Teslas and the likes would do 5-6C). There has been large continuous improvement in lithium batteries over the last couple decades.
    • nandomrumber 1y ago
      What does any of this mean? What is c in this context?
• JohnLocke4 1y ago
  In 2040 fusion energy advancements will have gotten far enough to be the next technological step and make this redundant anyway
  • deleted 1y ago
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  • epistasis 1y ago
    There's currently no technological path for fusion to be cheaper than fission. It would require a technological breakthrough that we have not yet imagined. And already, solar plus storage is cheaper than new nuclear. And solar and storage are getting cheaper at a tremendous rate. It's hard to imagine a scenario where fusion could ever catch up to solar and storage technology. It may be useful in places with poor solar resources, like fission is now, but that's a very very long time from now.
    • noosphr 1y ago
      The low energy future that was envisioned is not happening. The AI arms race, which has become an actual arms race in the war in Ukraine, needs endless energy all times a day. China is already winning the AI cold war because it adds more capacity to its grid a year than Germany has in a century. If we keep going with agrarian methods of energy production don't be surprised that we suffer the same fate as the agrarian societies of the 19th century. Any country that doesn't have the capability to train and build drones on mass won't be a country for long.
      • epistasis 1y ago
        You have that exactly backwards: solar + storage is what will give us energy abundance at less money than we could ever imagine from nuclear fission or fusion. China is winning the AI Cold war because it's adding solar, storage, and wind at orders of magnitude more than nuclear. I'm not sure who's doing your supposed "envisioning" but there is no vision for cheap abundant energy from fusion. Solar and storage deliver it today, fusion only delivers it in sci fi books. Nuclear is 20th century technology that does not fit with a highly automated future. With high levels of automation, construction is super expensive. You want to spend your expensive construction labor on building factories, not individual power generation sites. Building factories for solar and storage lets them scale to a degree that nuclear could never scale. Nuclear has basically no way of catching up.
• deleted 1y ago
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• JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  > Redwood has been struggling because the expected battery turnover is not occurring Redwood pitched recycling. But its principal business was primary production. (Processed black mass is analogous to lithium ore.) They're struggling because demand for American-made batteries remains low.
• Theodores 1y ago
  The typical EV industry trade show has a small handful of cars and a vast amount of tangential businesses including many finance options, a vast amount of home charger gizmos, fast charging gizmos, electricity suppliers and the companies promising grid-scale storage, either from actively used cars or recycled EV batteries. There is a vast constellation of this stuff, with specialist insurance companies that nobody really asked for outnumbering the car brands or even e-bike brands present. In time there will be consolidation. This constellation of EV startup bottom-feeders will be decimated along with the 'excuses' to not make money. I don't think the problem is that EV batteries are lasting longer, it is just that the EV market from before the Model 3 came along is miniscule. Hence not many second hand batteries to recycle. As for EV batteries and their availability, when was the last time you saw an OG Tesla Model S with the fake grill? Those cars used to be everywhere, but where are they now? The German EVs that came out to compete, for example, Taycan and eTron, those things are not going to last the distance since the repairs cost a fortune and the parts supply is limited. All considered, there will come a time before 2040+ when there are large quantities of these electric car batteries to upcycle, by which time the EV business will be consolidated with only a few players. If there was money in recycling cars then every auto manufacturer would be in on it.
• jwr 1y ago
  > the expected battery turnover is not occurring I find this somewhat amusing, because the black PR of the fossil-fuel industry would have us believe that EV batteries basically have a 2-year lifespan, cost lots of CO2 to produce, instantly become toxic waste after those 2 years, are non-recyclable, and overall as a result EVs emit more CO2 than gasoline-burning cars. We are being told that EVs have a larger CO2 footprint than gasoline-burners. Then Redwood shows up with a perfect way to utilize all those discarded batteries without even opening them up, and… that toxic industrial junk isn't even there?
• jillesvangurp 1y ago
  That's part of it. Yet there is a growing gwh of EV batteries that gets retired on a yearly basis. Which is what Redwood has been tapping into. There is also a certain amount of cells that don't make it past the quality gates in the factory that get recycled via them. Also people forget how quickly EVs have grown. The Tesla Model 3 came out in 2017; that's eight years ago. That was pretty much the first mass market EV that got produced by the hundreds of thousands per year. It had eight years of battery warranty. Most EVs you see on the road were produced after 2017 and typically come with similar warranty. The simple reality is that the vast majority of EV batteries ever produced is still under it's factory warranty and nowhere near its warranty life time. The amount of gwh of battery that becomes available for companies like Redwood is fairly predictable as it is tied to the production volume 8-15 years ago. Redwood is basically tapping into the growing number of cars that get scrapped early because of accidents or other failures. That's a smallish percentage of overall vehicles produced but at the rate EVs started getting produced around eight years ago, it's starting to add up to a few gwh of battery per year. It's not a lot yet but it's not that unpredictable. And it's not nothing. If you manufacturer new batteries at 80$/kwh, producing 1 gwh new would cost about 80M$. So giving batteries a second life has quite a bit of economic value. The issue for Redwood is probably more that competition for these batteries is quite fierce. There is a lot of valuable stuff you can do with these things and lots of companies eagerly looking to pick up second hand EVs for their batteries.
• dzhiurgis 1y ago
  Top it how cheap batteries have gotten it makes little sense to remanufacture unless you are extremely dedicated DIYer, live somewhere with very cheap labour or it's done in massive scale to achieve economies of scale. In NZ you can get 60KWh used Tesla battery for 6-10k NZD, then spend another 1-2k for additional gear + labour to hack it (overall $116-200/KWh) or 15KWh for 3.5k ($233/KWh) with warranty and safety guarantees.