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There are some people in my circles who have remained convinced that tariffs won’t actually amount to anything and that it’s all bluster. It seems we’re now en

There are some people in my circles who have remained convinced that tariffs won’t actually amount to anything and that it’s all bluster. It seems we’re now entering the “find out” stage, and it’s incredibly frustrating. As a tinkerer who loves building things, this is heartbreaking stuff. I have projects in progress that may have to be put on hold. I tend to order things as I need them, but it’s tempting to stockpile the basics. But I don’t think it will help much in the long run if this continues, and truly hope this madness will be seen for what it is and an appropriate backlash/correction will follow.

pclmulqdq 1y ago
I stockpiled the basics for my projects before I learned how fast the basics can shift.
- haswell 1y ago
  That’s a really good point that makes this so much worse. It’s not just that I may not be able to continue some projects, but that I may not be able to continue pushing the boundaries of my knowledge and experience as I learn more. Thinking about this in terms of younger aspiring builders, this will stagnate the technical growth of a generation.
- Scoundreller 1y ago
  I've been "stockpiling" car parts for years for various maintenance I need to do... I guess I should get to doing that actual maintenance but those strut springs still scare me. When covid hit, I def sold a lot of junk that I had sitting around for years
- alabastervlog 1y ago
  This getting-ahead-of-the-tax-hikes/inflation thing was probably why the segment of households with meaningful disposable income (top quintile or so) increased spending in Q1 even as everyone else was pulling back. We did it with air conditioner upgrades, among other things. Now? Five figures of previously-probable, but optional, spending for the rest of the year is on hold indefinitely. Prices on lots of things (construction materials, holy shit) are already way up, so we'll be sitting on as much cash as we can until that eases up. We don't need that much, really....
sharken 1y ago
The madness is the total reliance on cheap Chinese products, with very few or zero US alternatives. But building knowhow and sourcing rare metals will be a very tough challenge. It seems that China has the upper hand for now, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
- LPisGood 1y ago
  Global trade is goodness, not madness.
  - jl6 1y ago
    There is surely a balance to be struck to get some of the benefits of global trade, without creating a dependency that can be exploited to create leverage against you.
    - collingreen 1y ago
      There surely is and there are many paths toward that and many options for timelines that make it more or less impactful on businesses and consumers.
    - ToucanLoucan 1y ago
      I struggle to comprehend this viewpoint, echoed by many, with respect to: what possible benefit of global trade is the United States (well, previous to tariffs anyway) already not receiving? We can buy goods by printing money, which no other nation can lay claim to, because the U.S. Dollar is the default world currency. Everyone accepts USD, and wants USD. Every other nation on Earth in fact is always looking to buy dollars, because dollars are what everything is purchased in. Further, our standing in the globe and favorable geographic location means we can import anything from virtually anywhere, but most especially China, Korea, and Japan. Yeah we don't "make things" here anymore, the pundits say, apart from dozens of product categories over hundreds of industries. "Everything comes from China!" Okay, and? I don't want a job in a factory and I suspect a shitload of other people here also don't, and my source for that is every factory and logistics center near me is constantly trying to hire people and seemingly being unable to.
scoofy 1y ago
I actually moved a bunch of money around after the recovery from April 2nd. I just sat their thinking... wow, short term bonds have a really decent interest rate, and I don't think people are taking seriously the fact that the markets can actually fall apart because business is an incredibly complex, multi-variate process, and right now where just throwing wrenches into the gears for funsies. I'm not even completely anti-tariff. I just think the way we're going about doing these tariffs is pretty much the opposite way anyone who was trying to bring manufacturing back to the US would do them. Low, clear ratcheting up tariffs are tariffs that allow businesses time to change their strategy without disrupting their income streams. Instead, we're going to bankrupt basically anyone who isn't already a multi-national. Maybe I'm an idiot and I'm missing something clear, but to me, the reason why the S&P500 and passive investing have been so successful since basically the 1940's is simply that we have had competent, technocratic administrations for the last hundred years. Other countries' markets have not fared so "efficiently." Again, maybe I'm missing something, but I'm looking at this much more defensively than I did under the first administration. The one thing I can't figure out is the dollar. My brother is obsessed with the "dollar milkshake" theory, whereas it seems clear that we are messing with reserve status and are trying to intentionally weaken the dollar... I just don't know. It doesn't really make much sense what we're doing, and I haven't found anyone who can make an argument that makes sense to me.
- pstuart 1y ago
  > I haven't found anyone who can make an argument that makes sense to me. The goal is to eliminate income taxes and replace it with tariffs. An added bonus (for the administration), is that tariffs can be changed if the party in question pays for access to make their case. The stated reasoning of supporting domestic industry is a smoke screen for the above.
  - scoofy 1y ago
    Right, except that’s self-defeating and won’t work. The idea that we can plausibly generate enough revenue from tariffs to replace the income tax is inherently self-defeating, because if the tariffs work at bringing back manufacturing, we’ll stop imports. If they don’t, we’ll consume significantly less, more people will become poorer, and expenditures will increase as revenues decrease. Maybe there is an equilibrium in there, but I don’t see it.
zamalek 1y ago
> As a tinkerer who loves building things, this is heartbreaking stuff. Tinkers are inventors, which are future entrepreneurs. This administration can't think as far ahead as its nose.
- bigbadfeline 1y ago
  > Tinkers are inventors, which are future entrepreneurs. This administration can't think as far ahead as its nose. I don't see any evidence that they can't or don't think far ahead. These are people who think that "Competition is for losers". Past that, they're smart cookies.
spacemadness 1y ago
I think hobby areas involving anything produced overseas will get utterly annihilated. Board game companies are already shutting down. That whole industry went from a multi-year boom to a bust this year due to tariffs.
- Andrex 1y ago
  I've been trying to put a TCG together, I might just get a printer and print my own cards until volume demands otherwise. At least there are still high-quality options in the US, like USPCC, but you'll pay for it.

pclmulqdq 1y ago

I stockpiled the basics for my projects before I learned how fast the basics can shift.

haswell 1y ago
That’s a really good point that makes this so much worse. It’s not just that I may not be able to continue some projects, but that I may not be able to continue pushing the boundaries of my knowledge and experience as I learn more. Thinking about this in terms of younger aspiring builders, this will stagnate the technical growth of a generation.
Scoundreller 1y ago
I've been "stockpiling" car parts for years for various maintenance I need to do... I guess I should get to doing that actual maintenance but those strut springs still scare me. When covid hit, I def sold a lot of junk that I had sitting around for years
alabastervlog 1y ago
This getting-ahead-of-the-tax-hikes/inflation thing was probably why the segment of households with meaningful disposable income (top quintile or so) increased spending in Q1 even as everyone else was pulling back. We did it with air conditioner upgrades, among other things. Now? Five figures of previously-probable, but optional, spending for the rest of the year is on hold indefinitely. Prices on lots of things (construction materials, holy shit) are already way up, so we'll be sitting on as much cash as we can until that eases up. We don't need that much, really....

sharken 1y ago

The madness is the total reliance on cheap Chinese products, with very few or zero US alternatives. But building knowhow and sourcing rare metals will be a very tough challenge. It seems that China has the upper hand for now, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

LPisGood 1y ago
Global trade is goodness, not madness.
- jl6 1y ago
  There is surely a balance to be struck to get some of the benefits of global trade, without creating a dependency that can be exploited to create leverage against you.
  - collingreen 1y ago
    There surely is and there are many paths toward that and many options for timelines that make it more or less impactful on businesses and consumers.
  - ToucanLoucan 1y ago
    I struggle to comprehend this viewpoint, echoed by many, with respect to: what possible benefit of global trade is the United States (well, previous to tariffs anyway) already not receiving? We can buy goods by printing money, which no other nation can lay claim to, because the U.S. Dollar is the default world currency. Everyone accepts USD, and wants USD. Every other nation on Earth in fact is always looking to buy dollars, because dollars are what everything is purchased in. Further, our standing in the globe and favorable geographic location means we can import anything from virtually anywhere, but most especially China, Korea, and Japan. Yeah we don't "make things" here anymore, the pundits say, apart from dozens of product categories over hundreds of industries. "Everything comes from China!" Okay, and? I don't want a job in a factory and I suspect a shitload of other people here also don't, and my source for that is every factory and logistics center near me is constantly trying to hire people and seemingly being unable to.

scoofy 1y ago

I actually moved a bunch of money around after the recovery from April 2nd. I just sat their thinking... wow, short term bonds have a really decent interest rate, and I don't think people are taking seriously the fact that the markets can actually fall apart because business is an incredibly complex, multi-variate process, and right now where just throwing wrenches into the gears for funsies. I'm not even completely anti-tariff. I just think the way we're going about doing these tariffs is pretty much the opposite way anyone who was trying to bring manufacturing back to the US would do them. Low, clear ratcheting up tariffs are tariffs that allow businesses time to change their strategy without disrupting their income streams. Instead, we're going to bankrupt basically anyone who isn't already a multi-national. Maybe I'm an idiot and I'm missing something clear, but to me, the reason why the S&P500 and passive investing have been so successful since basically the 1940's is simply that we have had competent, technocratic administrations for the last hundred years. Other countries' markets have not fared so "efficiently." Again, maybe I'm missing something, but I'm looking at this much more defensively than I did under the first administration. The one thing I can't figure out is the dollar. My brother is obsessed with the "dollar milkshake" theory, whereas it seems clear that we are messing with reserve status and are trying to intentionally weaken the dollar... I just don't know. It doesn't really make much sense what we're doing, and I haven't found anyone who can make an argument that makes sense to me.

pstuart 1y ago
> I haven't found anyone who can make an argument that makes sense to me. The goal is to eliminate income taxes and replace it with tariffs. An added bonus (for the administration), is that tariffs can be changed if the party in question pays for access to make their case. The stated reasoning of supporting domestic industry is a smoke screen for the above.
- scoofy 1y ago
  Right, except that’s self-defeating and won’t work. The idea that we can plausibly generate enough revenue from tariffs to replace the income tax is inherently self-defeating, because if the tariffs work at bringing back manufacturing, we’ll stop imports. If they don’t, we’ll consume significantly less, more people will become poorer, and expenditures will increase as revenues decrease. Maybe there is an equilibrium in there, but I don’t see it.

zamalek 1y ago

> As a tinkerer who loves building things, this is heartbreaking stuff. Tinkers are inventors, which are future entrepreneurs. This administration can't think as far ahead as its nose.

bigbadfeline 1y ago
> Tinkers are inventors, which are future entrepreneurs. This administration can't think as far ahead as its nose. I don't see any evidence that they can't or don't think far ahead. These are people who think that "Competition is for losers". Past that, they're smart cookies.

spacemadness 1y ago

I think hobby areas involving anything produced overseas will get utterly annihilated. Board game companies are already shutting down. That whole industry went from a multi-year boom to a bust this year due to tariffs.

Andrex 1y ago
I've been trying to put a TCG together, I might just get a printer and print my own cards until volume demands otherwise. At least there are still high-quality options in the US, like USPCC, but you'll pay for it.