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This was the expected result. The economy does not like uncertainty, and it is almost impossible to plan ahead until there is some clarity how and when the curr

This was the expected result. The economy does not like uncertainty, and it is almost impossible to plan ahead until there is some clarity how and when the current trade war situation will resolve. The longer that takes, the worse the damage to the real economy will get.

duxup 1y ago
I'm a little surprised by how much lag there has been, but I suspect a lot of organizations where holding out for some form of "maybe he will change his mind", but as it is Trump and his own people aren't even on the same page about IF they're even negotiating with China or not... The mantra of some folks response to his more reckless statements has always been "it's just talk", but it seems to not be talk.
- raverbashing 1y ago
  I bet a lot of people in Wall Street are in denial or just playing chicken
  - iamtheworstdev 1y ago
    it's beginning to look a lot like... 2008
    - xnx 1y ago
      Kind of, but I don't think there's any precedent for the world's most powerful economy performing seppuku.
      - WorldMaker 1y ago
        The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 [1], where a Republican majority enacted extreme tariffs against President Hoover's almost veto, is sometimes considered one of the smoking guns for how the Great Depression got so bad. That's quite a precedent to be concerned about here. (Though this version is dumber with the President trying to do it through EOs, which is probably illegal and Congress should probably be much more upset their powers to be stupid are being usurped before their eyes.) [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot%E2%80%93Hawley_Tariff_Act https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot%E2%80%93Hawley_Tariff_Ac...
        raverbashing 1y ago
        Bueller? Bueller? People should have paid more attention
    - bayarearefugee 1y ago
      Well... if 2008 were an entirely self-inflicted wound caused by one malignant narcissist who believes himself to be a business genius despite the fact that his understanding of the global economy hasn't evolved since the 1980s or so (and it was already pretty shaky back then).
  - XorNot 1y ago
    Wall St is obligated to "buy the dip" is the thing - they're in it to make money now, so there's absolutely a ton of people trying to take a cut of the various market rebounds even if they have no confidence in the long run. They just don't want to be left holding the bag.
  - this_user 1y ago
    The people in denial are mostly retail traders who keep buying the dip, because they don't understand that the market has fundamentally changed. A lot of the big portfolios, at least the reasonably smart ones, have de-risked and are not eager to jump back in aggressively. But that also means that structural bid that had been underlying the market since 2020 is no longer present. And that means things can fall a lot further and quicker than most people who came into the market after 2020 can imagine.
- this_user 1y ago
  A lot of companies were building up inventory in Q1, which allows them to buffer the immediate impact. Some are also absorbing the tariffs for now, which will compress their margins for Q2. I think most of them are hoping that we might get a resolution in the foreseeable future, and then they at least have some clarity. But if that does not happen, we are going to see the full inflationary impact from tariffs eventually.
- spamizbad 1y ago
  It sort of makes sense: If tariffs are here to stay, you're going to have to fundamentally change how your business operates in a way that's not easy (or cheap) to "undo". So you're better off punting until the last possible minute when you know you have to commit to the new reality.
  - duxup 1y ago
    Considering the reports of imports way down, it seems like retailers and others may be choosing just to not offer product rather than crank up prices in some cases. That would fit the "can't alter my business that much..." mindset you're referencing I think.
slashdev 1y ago
People and businesses freeze when facing uncertainty. They cut back on spending and keep more cash in reserve in case they're going to need it. I fully agree that this is predictable, and if it drags on, I think it's likely to push the economy into recession (just one more quarter like this and we're there, technically.)
- tomrod 1y ago
  Not just freeze. Panic buying is starting - many for toilet paper (remembering COVID), but more for beans and rice.
  - foobarian 1y ago
    We learned that lesson during COVID already and invested into a Japanese toilet. Problem solved :-D
austin-cheney 1y ago
It will almost certainly contract more significantly into the second quarter as well. Many businesses remain reliant upon goods from China and are taken a massive financial hit on purchases now, but they are also waiting for the trade war to cool off before making future purchases. That will create a demand rush once the tariffs cool down and if they don't cool down these businesses will continue to have the same financial troubles but will also have inventory problems too. In short, it must get worse before it can get better irrespective of what happens next or when.
- llm_nerd 1y ago
  It isn't just China, and it isn't just goods. Tourist travel to the US has contracted, for instance. US service exports are suddenly extremely suspect and a lot of countries are finding alternatives. US goods exports are facing massive headwinds, and counter-tariffs in some other countries (China, where imports from the US have basically stopped, and Canada where $400B+ of US goods were sold last year, many of which now see a counter-tariff and boycotts/replacement). The situation is going to get much, much worse, and there is a serious sense of denial among both the market and many participants who seem to think Trump can retreat from his economic folly and everything will be good again. It won't. There is a massive structural shift that is going to linger for decades.
  - FollowingTheDao 1y ago
    Yes, everyone is whistling past the graveyard about this. You will see panic in two weeks. I was talking to two truck drivers here in Lincoln, Nebraska I met at a Flying J. They are already talking about layoffs and job insecurity and they are wondering why no one cares. One of them asked where his bail out was. The market, I think, is driven by AI and will be reactive, not predictive. All you need to do is be the quickest person out. All the under millionaire suckers will be wondering what happened to their 401k's.
    - deleted 1y ago
      [deleted]
    - deleted 1y ago
deleted 1y ago
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juujian 1y ago
Well its quite unexpected to see this big of a change within only a three months period. I would have expected not to see any quantitative indications of the mess brewing up only by summer.
- wiremine 1y ago
  > I would have expected not to see any quantitative indications of the mess brewing up only by summer. Just curious why you would think this? Markets react fairly quickly to major events...
  - bonzini 1y ago
    So called "Liberation Day" and consequent mini-crash was on April 2, so this is just based on perception (of stupidity) rather than an anything real. No matter how well-grounded that perception is, the actual reaction to the tariffs is bound to be worse.
  - Retr0id 1y ago
    Markets can react quickly, but this 0.3% stat is measuring GDP. That said, GDP responded to the pandemic fairly promptly too.
    - dragonwriter 1y ago
      > Markets can react quickly, but this 0.3% stat is measuring GDP. The GDP is the result of what markets (not the stock market, but actual markets for goods and services) do, if markets react quickly so does the GDP. And markets were reacting to tariff threats and other issues early in the term, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 projection rapidly turned from strongly positive to negative in February, IIRC.
      - Retr0id 1y ago
        They both influence each other, yes. But GDP is largely a measure of consumer spending in the present, whereas stock markets are more forward-looking. Consumers, for the most part, respond to prices in the present. Savvy consumers have been stocking up in advance of anticipated price increases, and the less-savvy aren't really changing their spending yet because of stock buffers etc.
akudha 1y ago
There is a lot of discussion on Reddit on empty ports etc. It sounds quite scary. I suppose one silver lining is people ordering less crap? Might be good for the environment, just like during COVID. But a lot of businesses and people are going to be hurting :( As usual, people with cash will end up buying properties, businesses and other assets for pennies on the dollar.
- SideburnsOfDoom 1y ago
  Yep, the empty ports reflect ships that set sail weeks ago. Expect slow / empty ports and effects of that to become more widespread in the USA in May. Even if the situation was reversed tomorrow, ships cannot arrive until weeks later. I've seen "60 to 90 days" given, but I think this is time for the whole supply chain, not just port-to-port ship time. And the situation won't reverse tomorrow. It's now at a place where neither US or Chinese leadership can change tactic without "losing face" badly. This bad 2nd quarter is locked in. Likely much longer than that.
  - matthewdgreen 1y ago
    It’s worse. Even if the tariffs go away tomorrow (and Trump is currently indicating nothing of the sort) there will then be a frenzy as importers fight over the limited freight capacity. You should expect container prices to soar, the same way they did during COVID. No idea how long this will go on for.
    - SideburnsOfDoom 1y ago
      The USA elected a president who promised to impose tariffs. So they're going to get tariffs. As the quote goes "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." As for China, I mentioned that it's now that they feel disrespected, and it's about "face". That's why I'm sceptical of the USA leadership's claims that China is calling up now to negotiate trade, which China denies (1). Why would they call? The ships not arriving is the negotiating statement. That message has to first sink in, in clear terms. Which it should in May and June 1) https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/29/business/china-video-trump-trade-war/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/29/business/china-video-trum...
the_duke 1y ago
A LOT of the typical financial analysts/pundits where definitely not expecting this - or at least not saying so out loud. The chorus was slower growth in Q1, boosted by frontloading of purchases, with the real consequences only emerging in Q2 or Q3.
- fundad 1y ago
  In hindsight, it looks like a pump-an-dump scam.
- SideburnsOfDoom 1y ago
  This "chorus" prediction could be quite correct, just a bit too optimistic across the board.
belter 1y ago
"Trump blames Biden ‘overhang’ after GDP shrinks in first quarter" - https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/trump-gdp-tariffs-biden-overhang.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/trump-gdp-tariffs-biden-over...
deng 1y ago
> This was the expected result. You may have expected this (and if so, I hope you bought some good PUT options), but most economists certainly did not expect this already for the first quarter. On the contrary, there was more the expectation that because of the looming tariffs, people planning to buy larger goods this year would rather expedite the purchase and do it now to avoid rising prices later, leading to a boost in orders. It is quite probable that this has actually happened, and that makes this number even worse.
- coldpie 1y ago
  > most economists certainly did not expect this already for the first quarter For me personally, I've largely stopped buying non-required stuff. Not because of price increases, but because I'd rather have the cash on hand to help me & my friends to survive the next few years. Two of my friends lost their jobs in the Trump job cuts, and many of my friends are in less secure financial positions than I am. I'd rather be able to give them some cash than buy stuff I don't need, so I'm hanging on to my savings for now. Dark times ahead, and cash will be more useful than another guitar or whatever.
- justinrubek 1y ago
  I am one of these people. I've been in terrible financial shape for years, and fairly recently, things have started to improve. I've chosen to deploy a fair amount of my savings to acquire things I need (and some wants, of course) under the assumption that they will be more out of reach in the future. It feels bad to do so, but it's not worth the risk to not.
- dragonwriter 1y ago
  > You may have expected this (and if so, I hope you bought some good PUT options), but most economists certainly did not expect this already for the first quarter Yes, they did, and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q1 has been negative since, IIRC, mid-February. That in Q1 we were likely in the first quarter of a significant recession that would get worse if some way out of the planned tariff apocalypse wasn't found was a widespread perception.
- ActorNightly 1y ago
dfxm12 1y ago
This was the expected result for the economic policy that Trump campaigned on and subsequently implemented. The economy would be doing better if the previous admin's relatively hands off policy was continued.
- fundad 1y ago
  Agreed. There is no reasonable argument that the people in charge and those that voted for them actually want economic growth. This was not only the expected result, it was the intended result.
tomrod 1y ago
Remember too that, for systemic collapse like this, things happen slowly, then all at once.
- optimalsolver 1y ago
  Extra History's Bronze Age Collapse series is a good watch right now: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkMP328eU5Q https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkMP328eU5Q
  - nobody9999 1y ago
    And for more spectacular (and not so spectacular) collapses, check out Fall of Civilizations[0] [0] https://www.youtube.com/@FallofCivilizations https://www.youtube.com/@FallofCivilizations
- ActorNightly 1y ago
  I don't think there will be a full on collapse, because there is still underlying value in US (especially places like California that have GDP higher than some countries). But long term degradation of economy absolutely.
  - popcorncowboy 1y ago
    Larger than all but 2 other countries. https://www.businessinsider.com/california-economy-fourth-largest-japan-us-china-germany-2025-4 https://www.businessinsider.com/california-economy-fourth-la...
rtkwe 1y ago
It's wild to me how much the markets recovered with every little pause or extension. To me it feels like they're wildly optimistic that he'll back away from the cliff but I have strong doubts.
- tbirdny 1y ago
  The jumps are short squeezes. You get the biggest up days in a bear market. When everyone is shorting and buying puts, if it starts going up a little bit, many of them cover, and to cover they have to buy, so it goes up.
- ManlyBread 1y ago
  I wonder how much algorithmic trading affects this and whether these changes are just results of certain headlines being interpreted by some computer programs.
apwell23 1y ago
why doesn't stock market not care about this then?
apwell23 1y ago
seems like stock market and housing market do not give a fuck about 'uncertainty'
- ActorNightly 1y ago
  yet.
  - apwell23 1y ago
    that doesn't make sense. If you think 'yet' then you can be a billionaire by using that to your advantage. Asset prices adjust immediately as soon as knowledge is available. There is no 'yet'.

duxup 1y ago

I'm a little surprised by how much lag there has been, but I suspect a lot of organizations where holding out for some form of "maybe he will change his mind", but as it is Trump and his own people aren't even on the same page about IF they're even negotiating with China or not... The mantra of some folks response to his more reckless statements has always been "it's just talk", but it seems to not be talk.

raverbashing 1y ago
I bet a lot of people in Wall Street are in denial or just playing chicken
- iamtheworstdev 1y ago
  it's beginning to look a lot like... 2008
  - xnx 1y ago
    Kind of, but I don't think there's any precedent for the world's most powerful economy performing seppuku.
    - WorldMaker 1y ago
      The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 [1], where a Republican majority enacted extreme tariffs against President Hoover's almost veto, is sometimes considered one of the smoking guns for how the Great Depression got so bad. That's quite a precedent to be concerned about here. (Though this version is dumber with the President trying to do it through EOs, which is probably illegal and Congress should probably be much more upset their powers to be stupid are being usurped before their eyes.) [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot%E2%80%93Hawley_Tariff_Act https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot%E2%80%93Hawley_Tariff_Ac...
      - raverbashing 1y ago
        Bueller? Bueller? People should have paid more attention
  - bayarearefugee 1y ago
    Well... if 2008 were an entirely self-inflicted wound caused by one malignant narcissist who believes himself to be a business genius despite the fact that his understanding of the global economy hasn't evolved since the 1980s or so (and it was already pretty shaky back then).
- XorNot 1y ago
  Wall St is obligated to "buy the dip" is the thing - they're in it to make money now, so there's absolutely a ton of people trying to take a cut of the various market rebounds even if they have no confidence in the long run. They just don't want to be left holding the bag.
- this_user 1y ago
  The people in denial are mostly retail traders who keep buying the dip, because they don't understand that the market has fundamentally changed. A lot of the big portfolios, at least the reasonably smart ones, have de-risked and are not eager to jump back in aggressively. But that also means that structural bid that had been underlying the market since 2020 is no longer present. And that means things can fall a lot further and quicker than most people who came into the market after 2020 can imagine.
this_user 1y ago
A lot of companies were building up inventory in Q1, which allows them to buffer the immediate impact. Some are also absorbing the tariffs for now, which will compress their margins for Q2. I think most of them are hoping that we might get a resolution in the foreseeable future, and then they at least have some clarity. But if that does not happen, we are going to see the full inflationary impact from tariffs eventually.
spamizbad 1y ago
It sort of makes sense: If tariffs are here to stay, you're going to have to fundamentally change how your business operates in a way that's not easy (or cheap) to "undo". So you're better off punting until the last possible minute when you know you have to commit to the new reality.
- duxup 1y ago
  Considering the reports of imports way down, it seems like retailers and others may be choosing just to not offer product rather than crank up prices in some cases. That would fit the "can't alter my business that much..." mindset you're referencing I think.

slashdev 1y ago

People and businesses freeze when facing uncertainty. They cut back on spending and keep more cash in reserve in case they're going to need it. I fully agree that this is predictable, and if it drags on, I think it's likely to push the economy into recession (just one more quarter like this and we're there, technically.)

tomrod 1y ago
Not just freeze. Panic buying is starting - many for toilet paper (remembering COVID), but more for beans and rice.
- foobarian 1y ago
  We learned that lesson during COVID already and invested into a Japanese toilet. Problem solved :-D

austin-cheney 1y ago

It will almost certainly contract more significantly into the second quarter as well. Many businesses remain reliant upon goods from China and are taken a massive financial hit on purchases now, but they are also waiting for the trade war to cool off before making future purchases. That will create a demand rush once the tariffs cool down and if they don't cool down these businesses will continue to have the same financial troubles but will also have inventory problems too. In short, it must get worse before it can get better irrespective of what happens next or when.

llm_nerd 1y ago
It isn't just China, and it isn't just goods. Tourist travel to the US has contracted, for instance. US service exports are suddenly extremely suspect and a lot of countries are finding alternatives. US goods exports are facing massive headwinds, and counter-tariffs in some other countries (China, where imports from the US have basically stopped, and Canada where $400B+ of US goods were sold last year, many of which now see a counter-tariff and boycotts/replacement). The situation is going to get much, much worse, and there is a serious sense of denial among both the market and many participants who seem to think Trump can retreat from his economic folly and everything will be good again. It won't. There is a massive structural shift that is going to linger for decades.
- FollowingTheDao 1y ago
  Yes, everyone is whistling past the graveyard about this. You will see panic in two weeks. I was talking to two truck drivers here in Lincoln, Nebraska I met at a Flying J. They are already talking about layoffs and job insecurity and they are wondering why no one cares. One of them asked where his bail out was. The market, I think, is driven by AI and will be reactive, not predictive. All you need to do is be the quickest person out. All the under millionaire suckers will be wondering what happened to their 401k's.
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
  - deleted 1y ago

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

juujian 1y ago

Well its quite unexpected to see this big of a change within only a three months period. I would have expected not to see any quantitative indications of the mess brewing up only by summer.

wiremine 1y ago
> I would have expected not to see any quantitative indications of the mess brewing up only by summer. Just curious why you would think this? Markets react fairly quickly to major events...
- bonzini 1y ago
  So called "Liberation Day" and consequent mini-crash was on April 2, so this is just based on perception (of stupidity) rather than an anything real. No matter how well-grounded that perception is, the actual reaction to the tariffs is bound to be worse.
- Retr0id 1y ago
  Markets can react quickly, but this 0.3% stat is measuring GDP. That said, GDP responded to the pandemic fairly promptly too.
  - dragonwriter 1y ago
    > Markets can react quickly, but this 0.3% stat is measuring GDP. The GDP is the result of what markets (not the stock market, but actual markets for goods and services) do, if markets react quickly so does the GDP. And markets were reacting to tariff threats and other issues early in the term, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 projection rapidly turned from strongly positive to negative in February, IIRC.
    - Retr0id 1y ago
      They both influence each other, yes. But GDP is largely a measure of consumer spending in the present, whereas stock markets are more forward-looking. Consumers, for the most part, respond to prices in the present. Savvy consumers have been stocking up in advance of anticipated price increases, and the less-savvy aren't really changing their spending yet because of stock buffers etc.

akudha 1y ago

There is a lot of discussion on Reddit on empty ports etc. It sounds quite scary. I suppose one silver lining is people ordering less crap? Might be good for the environment, just like during COVID. But a lot of businesses and people are going to be hurting :( As usual, people with cash will end up buying properties, businesses and other assets for pennies on the dollar.

SideburnsOfDoom 1y ago
Yep, the empty ports reflect ships that set sail weeks ago. Expect slow / empty ports and effects of that to become more widespread in the USA in May. Even if the situation was reversed tomorrow, ships cannot arrive until weeks later. I've seen "60 to 90 days" given, but I think this is time for the whole supply chain, not just port-to-port ship time. And the situation won't reverse tomorrow. It's now at a place where neither US or Chinese leadership can change tactic without "losing face" badly. This bad 2nd quarter is locked in. Likely much longer than that.
- matthewdgreen 1y ago
  It’s worse. Even if the tariffs go away tomorrow (and Trump is currently indicating nothing of the sort) there will then be a frenzy as importers fight over the limited freight capacity. You should expect container prices to soar, the same way they did during COVID. No idea how long this will go on for.
  - SideburnsOfDoom 1y ago
    The USA elected a president who promised to impose tariffs. So they're going to get tariffs. As the quote goes "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." As for China, I mentioned that it's now that they feel disrespected, and it's about "face". That's why I'm sceptical of the USA leadership's claims that China is calling up now to negotiate trade, which China denies (1). Why would they call? The ships not arriving is the negotiating statement. That message has to first sink in, in clear terms. Which it should in May and June 1) https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/29/business/china-video-trump-trade-war/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/29/business/china-video-trum...

the_duke 1y ago

A LOT of the typical financial analysts/pundits where definitely not expecting this - or at least not saying so out loud. The chorus was slower growth in Q1, boosted by frontloading of purchases, with the real consequences only emerging in Q2 or Q3.

fundad 1y ago
In hindsight, it looks like a pump-an-dump scam.
SideburnsOfDoom 1y ago
This "chorus" prediction could be quite correct, just a bit too optimistic across the board.

belter 1y ago

"Trump blames Biden ‘overhang’ after GDP shrinks in first quarter" - https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/trump-gdp-tariffs-biden-overhang.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/trump-gdp-tariffs-biden-over...

deng 1y ago

> This was the expected result. You may have expected this (and if so, I hope you bought some good PUT options), but most economists certainly did not expect this already for the first quarter. On the contrary, there was more the expectation that because of the looming tariffs, people planning to buy larger goods this year would rather expedite the purchase and do it now to avoid rising prices later, leading to a boost in orders. It is quite probable that this has actually happened, and that makes this number even worse.

coldpie 1y ago
> most economists certainly did not expect this already for the first quarter For me personally, I've largely stopped buying non-required stuff. Not because of price increases, but because I'd rather have the cash on hand to help me & my friends to survive the next few years. Two of my friends lost their jobs in the Trump job cuts, and many of my friends are in less secure financial positions than I am. I'd rather be able to give them some cash than buy stuff I don't need, so I'm hanging on to my savings for now. Dark times ahead, and cash will be more useful than another guitar or whatever.
justinrubek 1y ago
I am one of these people. I've been in terrible financial shape for years, and fairly recently, things have started to improve. I've chosen to deploy a fair amount of my savings to acquire things I need (and some wants, of course) under the assumption that they will be more out of reach in the future. It feels bad to do so, but it's not worth the risk to not.
dragonwriter 1y ago
> You may have expected this (and if so, I hope you bought some good PUT options), but most economists certainly did not expect this already for the first quarter Yes, they did, and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q1 has been negative since, IIRC, mid-February. That in Q1 we were likely in the first quarter of a significant recession that would get worse if some way out of the planned tariff apocalypse wasn't found was a widespread perception.
ActorNightly 1y ago

dfxm12 1y ago

This was the expected result for the economic policy that Trump campaigned on and subsequently implemented. The economy would be doing better if the previous admin's relatively hands off policy was continued.

fundad 1y ago
Agreed. There is no reasonable argument that the people in charge and those that voted for them actually want economic growth. This was not only the expected result, it was the intended result.

tomrod 1y ago

Remember too that, for systemic collapse like this, things happen slowly, then all at once.

optimalsolver 1y ago
Extra History's Bronze Age Collapse series is a good watch right now: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkMP328eU5Q https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkMP328eU5Q
- nobody9999 1y ago
  And for more spectacular (and not so spectacular) collapses, check out Fall of Civilizations[0] [0] https://www.youtube.com/@FallofCivilizations https://www.youtube.com/@FallofCivilizations
ActorNightly 1y ago
I don't think there will be a full on collapse, because there is still underlying value in US (especially places like California that have GDP higher than some countries). But long term degradation of economy absolutely.
- popcorncowboy 1y ago
  Larger than all but 2 other countries. https://www.businessinsider.com/california-economy-fourth-largest-japan-us-china-germany-2025-4 https://www.businessinsider.com/california-economy-fourth-la...

rtkwe 1y ago

It's wild to me how much the markets recovered with every little pause or extension. To me it feels like they're wildly optimistic that he'll back away from the cliff but I have strong doubts.

tbirdny 1y ago
The jumps are short squeezes. You get the biggest up days in a bear market. When everyone is shorting and buying puts, if it starts going up a little bit, many of them cover, and to cover they have to buy, so it goes up.
ManlyBread 1y ago
I wonder how much algorithmic trading affects this and whether these changes are just results of certain headlines being interpreted by some computer programs.

apwell23 1y ago

why doesn't stock market not care about this then?

apwell23 1y ago

seems like stock market and housing market do not give a fuck about 'uncertainty'

ActorNightly 1y ago
yet.
- apwell23 1y ago
  that doesn't make sense. If you think 'yet' then you can be a billionaire by using that to your advantage. Asset prices adjust immediately as soon as knowledge is available. There is no 'yet'.