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The US is falling way behind in electric vehicles. If BYD could sell in the US, the US auto industry would be crushed.[1] What went wrong is that 1) Tesla neve
by Animats 2y ago
The US is falling way behind in electric vehicles. If BYD could sell in the US, the US auto industry would be crushed.[1]
What went wrong is that 1) Tesla never made a low-end vehicle, despite announcements, and 2) all the other US manufacturers treated electric as a premium product, resulting in the overpowered electric Hummer 2 and F-150 pickups with high price tags. The only US electric vehicle with comparable prices in electric and gasoline versions is the Ford Transit.
BYD says that their strategy for now is to dominate in every country that does not have its own auto industry. Worry about the left-behind countries later.
BYD did it by 1) getting lithium-iron batteries to be cheaper, safer, and faster-charging, although heavier than lithium-ion, 2) integrating rear wheels, differential, axle, and motor into an "e-axle" unit that's the entire mechanical part of the power train, and 3) building really big auto plants in China.
Next step is to get solid state batteries into volume production, and build a new factory bigger than San Francisco.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_BYD_Auto_vehicles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_BYD_Auto_vehicles
- sebmellen 2y agoThe Chevy Spark EV is an incredible vehicle and has been my around town go kart for the past 7 years. Cost me $11k (!!) as an off lease purchase.
- joshjob42 2y agoI adored my Spark EV til it sadly died (fairly scarily, on a highway access road) one day. Chevy was never able to repair it and ultimately gave me a nice payout after paying for a rental for me for nearly a year. But if you sold the Spark EV for 20k today with like 120mi of range, it would be perfect and would satisfy all my needs 99% of the time. Even mine (13k all in) was great here in LA with ~60mi of range. I loved how small and easy to park it was without feeling cramped to me at all. If it had CarPlay I'd've said it was the perfect car haha. It's a shame they haven't rebooted it yet as a pure EV. It's right there in the name!
- caseyf7 2y agoBYD buses are operating in the US.
- loufe 2y agoDid you mean to say sodium batteries instead of lithium in your "BYD did it" sentence?
- Animats 2y agoNo. Five years ago BYD introduced their "blade battery", which is a lithium iron phosphate battery built up of plate-like "blades" in rectangular casings.[1] Wh/L is about the same as lithium ion, Wh/Kg is not as good, and Wh/$ is better. It will survive the "nail test" and does not not go into thermal runaway. Today, most of BYD's products use this technology. It's been improved to handle higher charging rates. Seems to work fine. Lithium-ion has better Wh/Kg, and it's still used in some high-end cars, mostly Teslas. BYD's approach has captured the low and medium priced markets. BYD has announced that they plan first shipments of cars with solid state batteries (higher Wh/Kg) in 2027. Price will be high at first, and they will first appear in BYD's high-end cars. Like these.[3] BYD has the Yangwang U8, a big off-road SUV comparable to the Rivian, and the Yangwang U9, a "hypercar". Just to show that they can make them, probably. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIt5z4wT9RE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIt5z4wT9RE [2] https://electrek.co/2025/02/17/byd-confirms-evs-all-solid-state-batteries-2027/ https://electrek.co/2025/02/17/byd-confirms-evs-all-solid-st... [3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHWXx1KsvVY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHWXx1KsvVY
- JimBlackwood 2y ago> Like these.[3] BYD has the Yangwang U8, a big off-road SUV comparable to the Rivian, and the Yangwang U9, a "hypercar". I really did not expect to open this and have it be presented by Kryten! Fun surprise! :)
- DidYaWipe 2y agoWhat went wrong is that the federal government didn't build or legislate a national charging infrastructure to match the scale of the interstate highway system. They could have strong-armed the states into it with a combination of funding the construction and the way they mandated the 21 drinking age: by threatening to withhold highway funds.
- atoav 2y agoIsn't this lack of forward thinking somewhat the general problem now? From an EU perspective the world as it has existed in the living memory is a world shaped by decisive US-actions. The way EVs have been approached were anything but that. Arguably neither did Germany, because of the way their politicians are entangled with the car manufacturers.
- phonon 2y agoThey definitely tried... $7.5 Billion worth. It's on pause now :-( https://www.govtech.com/transportation/federal-funding-for-ev-charging-infrastructure-is-paused https://www.govtech.com/transportation/federal-funding-for-e...
- cpursley 2y ago[flagged]
- perihelions 2y ago
- Panzer04 2y agoI don't really see how any car company can "fall behind" in EV. Fundamentally, IMO, EVs are such a simple concept mechanically that any company capable of building a conventional ICE vehicle can build an EV. It's glib to say that - obviously there's a lot of unsaid complexity (battery back cooling, fitting into the frame, and so on), but the actual drivetrain component is just so simple. That EVs are still expensive is to me a sign that production hasn't ramped up yet. So long as production is limited EVs will remain a luxury product - but I can't imagine that's going to continue for all that much longer with an increasing backlog of used EVs on the market and decreasing battery prices.
- derektank 2y agoEven if there were no improvements to be had in the vehicle itself, improvements in manufacturing processes determine how expensive the product is and thus how competitively priced the vehicle can be. Falling behind on price means falling behind on market share which means falling behind on efficiencies of scale which often means going out of business or at best becoming a niche producer. Honda and Toyota weren't able to outcompete US manufacturers in the 1980s by offering higher performance vehicles but by delivering similar quality products at lower prices by making use of superior production techniques like Lean and JIT inventory management.
- constantcrying 2y agoAre you serious? EVs have been the biggest disruption in the auto industry. It has created major corporations who made the attempts of traditional manufacturers seem obsolete. VW Group and Stellantis totally failed to compete with Chinese manufacturers and were driven out of the Chinese EV market almost entirely. Competition is extremely fierce. >That EVs are still expensive Look up what they cost in China. >So long as production is limited EVs will remain a luxury product Around 50% of new sales in China. Not "luxury" in any meaningful way. The issue is that EVs do not differentiate themselves by power train. They differentiate themselves by battery and software.
- IceHegel 2y agoI think one of the biggest problems in the United States is the misallocation of ambitious people. The highly educated and ambitious people see finance, government, tech, and corporate executive tracks, as the way to convert their energies into social status. Even startups these days seem to be a case of too many chiefs, not enough Indians.
- jmpman 2y agoWhen Elon gets excited about displacing his engineers on a whim with H1Bs, why would any highly educated ambitious person want to work for Tesla?
- motorest 2y ago> (...) why would any highly educated ambitious person want to work for Tesla? To that dimension I would add ethics as well. It's very hard to justify working for the likes of Tesla when being mindful of the attitude the company and company representatives have with regards to basic issues ranging from workers rights to totalitarianism.
- zem 2y agoI mean, that's one way to get Indians!
- almosthere 2y agoWell the problem is US wants to be the world's managers. And all we cared about is writing messenger apps. Totally missed the boat on building things, like houses, boats, and most of all new weird things we don't even have a concept for.
- grues-dinner 2y agoWatching nearly the entire software-financial complex burn to the ground when the vaunted "moats" dry up is going to be a hell of a sight. All this AI hype is just going to end up commodifying the very thing that the entire industry is built on: management of processes. Places that understand that physical production cannot be abstracted forever will prevail.
- londons_explore 2y ago> dominate in every country that does not have its own auto industry. That's because they plan to have a small number of huge factories to keep costs down. But that means they need cheap ships, and can only sell to places with no car tariffs - which tends to be the countries without an auto industry.
- torginus 2y agoBYD's allowed to sell in Europe. They're not crushing the market here. They're not substantially cheaper, or better for what they offer for the price compared to other manufacturers.
- herbst 2y agoWithin only a few months I see more Chinese Electric cars than Tesla (or us cars generally) on swiss streets. Depending on what you are looking for they are WAY cheaper than comparable cars.
- mikrotikker 2y agoNo way I'd trust them. When you crash them or they have a battery fault, the doors lock you inside before the battery catches fire. Many videos of this happening inside China with one recent event in the West.
- dubcanada 2y agoAre there not similar videos of Tesla, or other electric cars doing the exact same thing?
- herbst 2y agoThat sounds like some kind of tiktok scare lol
- motorest 2y ago> No way I'd trust them. When you crash them or they have a battery fault, the doors lock you inside before the battery catches fire. This matches reports from Tesla users. The cybertruck is specially prone to this sort of design problems.
- EasyMark 2y agoOnly cybertrucks I've heard about catching on fire where the ones purposely set on fire. While I'm sure it happens I doubt it's any higher than any other vehicle on the road
- herbst 2y agoThey are doing a lot of advertisment and promo in Germany which has a active and kinda stable car Industrie. Pretty sure they plan to disrupt any market
- refurb 2y agoIn terms of BYD dominance, one needs to keep in mind the subsidy that the Chinese government is providing, such that they can sell cars below cost. https://www.shs-conferences.org/articles/shsconf/pdf/2024/27/shsconf_icdeba2024_03017.pdf https://www.shs-conferences.org/articles/shsconf/pdf/2024/27... Just 2018 to 2022, BYD received $5.9B. And that doesn't include all the indirect subsidies that went to suppliers like the battery manufacturers. It's a part of Chinese government strategy of "build it and they will come". Massively subsidize select industries, dominate the market. Which is why the EU has put high tariff's on the cars.
- ksynwa 2y agoThat is not that much in terms of subsidy for a critical industry. I tried finding the awards for Tesla but the articles lump in government contracts and report the figure to be in tens of billions. I am sure they have received a comparable amount of funding. BYD has just been able to make better use of it I suppose.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- perihelions 2y ago- "BYD did it by" Also the many systemic, industry-wide factors discussed last week in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43692677 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43692677 ("America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back (molsonhart.com)" — 1010 comments) I agree with the gist of that piece; focusing on specific engineering choices (important as they are) is missing the forest for a particularly interesting tree. Any American EV maker is heavily disadvantaged right now, no matter how clever they are.
- fifilura 2y ago> 3) integrating rear wheels, differential, axle, and motor into an "e-axle" unit that's the entire mechanical part of the power train Obviously an electric vehicle is so much simpler than one with a gasoline engine. We have seen it already with lawn mowers who shrank from huge tractors to nimble robots. An in particular when you don't start from the Autobahn-eater type of cars.
- testing22321 2y agoThe US automakers lost the plot a long time ago, and have just been sucking out money without innovation or improvement since. When California and the EPA tried to legislate lower emissions 9 years into the future, the US automakers sued to block saying it was impossible. Japanese automakers were already selling vehicles that met those standards. When they badly, badly screw up, they just get bailed out with public funds and then go on to pay execs tens of millions of dollars a year and fat bonuses. Guaranteed profits no matter what made them lazy and uncompetitive. They’re all dying
- yellowapple 2y ago> When they badly, badly screw up, they just get bailed out with public funds When this happens, I think it's only fair that the bailed-out company becomes publicly owned. If I'm forced to invest in a company with my tax dollars, then I damn well better be treated as an investor. Where are my shares? Where are my dividends?
- directevolve 2y agoWhen the USG bailed out banks via TARP during the 2008 financial crisis, it did so by buying shares in those companies. It later sold those shares for a $30.5 billion profit.
- EasyMark 2y agoIf GMC had been “publically owned” it would have been gutted for profits (kickbacks) by its bureaucracy and politicians and been long dead by at least a decade. Bureaucrats are not good at running companies and private companies should not be providing public services (prisons, toll roads). I don't know why Americans have become so unpragmatic and either all in on “government doing everything” or “private corps doing everything” when life is never ever that simple.
- ajmurmann 2y agoThere also is the chicken tax which has been protecting US automakers in the pickup truck space which has lead to then leaning much more into that. Together with absurd CAFE rules that benefit huge cars and more beneficial tax write-off rules for vehicles over 3.5t regulation has lead to US automakers focusing on cars that are absurd by international standards.
- nxm 2y agoBy 4) stealing patents and technology off of American companies
- throw3817374 2y agoI was curious about this statement and did a search and could not find anything about it. It appears that EV technology is new enough that it's Chinese companies that are the ones innovating, especially in battery technology.
- steve76 2y ago[dead]
- casey2 2y agoExactly how will BYD's 400k vehicals "crush" the US auto industry? They could give them away for free and not even make a dent.
- EasyMark 2y agoYou're probably right about BYD, most people only see price and whether it's reputation is at least "ok". I personally will never buy that big of a purchase from a Chinese company until CCP is no longer in charge.
- panick21_ 2y ago> 2) all the other US manufacturers treated electric as a premium product This is because the LITERALLY CAN'T make money of a non premium product. And for Tesla is just because Musk is stupid and went ALL-IN on self driving. They literally believe that the market will drop by 80% because of self driving. That's why the only build robotaxi and no model 2. Against the advice of basically everybody in Tesla leadership.
- lvl155 2y agoDo you own a BYD? It’s not that great. Build quality is subpar. Problem with investing in China is that once tech transfer ends, there’s no promise that these companies are capable of continued innovations. It’s basically an ecosystem dependent on outside innovations that they can “transfer” and tweak. That’s the whole “communist” economy in nutshell.
- cryptoegorophy 2y agoYou missed a big elephant in the room 4) China did a significant subsidies for BYD factories. If USA did similar % wise thing to Tesla then we would’ve have $20k teslas driving.
- seanmcdirmid 2y agoChina subsidized EVs in the same way that America did (tax credits), and less aggressively so. Unless you mean incentives from Shenzhen and getting taxi companies to early adopt? They also added incentives in getting a car at all in cities like Beijing (EVs started out in a different lottery allocation for plates)?
- Animats 2y agoIt's more like BYD winning the race in China's auto industry. China has over a hundred automakers, most making low-end cars.[1] Some are state-owned, some are province-owned, some are privately owned. BYD is privately owned and doing well. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automobile_manufacturers_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automobile_manufacture...
- tw04 2y ago>2) all the other US manufacturers treated electric as a premium product, resulting in the overpowered electric Hummer 2 and F-150 pickups with high price tags They had to in order to build the manufacturing capacity without literally bankrupting themselves. As GM has shown, once they had the expertise and manufacturing capabilities, they could quickly move downmarket. By all accounts GM's entry into the space has been a raging success, moving downmarket with the Equinox being available for as low as $27,500. They obviously aren't to Tesla level sales numbers yet, but they're growing rapidly and I would not count them out of the fight. https://insideevs.com/news/746177/general-motors-record-2024-ev-sales/ https://insideevs.com/news/746177/general-motors-record-2024...
- Breza 2y agoI completely agree. It baffles me that there aren't more entry level EVs in the United States. Two years ago, I decided I wanted an EV. I didn't want to spend a ton. There weren't many good options. I was disappointed by the Model 3. Ionic was promising. Ended up buying a Chevy Bolt EUV. I absolutely love it. The torque you get from even a modestly powerful electric vehicle is incredible, and one pedal driving is a real boon in city driving. Plus it's fun to drive past the gas station and just plug into the charger that Chevy paid to install at my house.