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How did the Tech & Finance Leaders fall for this during the election? Amazing lack of foresight.

Infinity315 2y ago
For whatever reason, people did not believe Trump would be this crazy. In fact, people in the stock market still do not believe he is this crazy. If they did, the stock market would drop much lower. From what I've heard from people in finance, the bond market is indicating some economic growth this year. If this goes on, expect a financial crisis which rivals that of the Great Depression. It's not a lack of foresight, it's just that they do not believe him or believe that someone will stop him. People have just misread Donald Trump and his intentions.
- disgruntledphd2 2y ago
  To be fair, he said he would do all this crazy stuff the first time but didn't. So there's some evidence for the position that he wouldn't do crazy stuff. Also, it's hard for people to understand that someone in power might just not understand why their decisions are a terrible, terrible idea (see politicians and backdooring encryption for a tech example of this).
  - beAbU 2y ago
    He didn't do those things, or he couldn't? Not too familiar with American politics, but AIUI his majority was much weaker last time round, possibly resulting in some of his crazy being kept under control?
    - andelink 2y ago
      Yes, he couldn't. Anyone paying attention knows he tried.
      - disgruntledphd2 2y ago
        Well it was more that basically all the people he appointed talked him down last time. This time he picked based on loyalty, so it's pretty much whatever he wants (apparently tariffs).
- ZeroGravitas 2y ago
  Yes the latest Goldman Sachs recession forecast is 45% probability, which is what makes it into the headlines. However the report says this is assuming the tariffs won't go into effect. The flagship policy Trump just announced after going on about how the most beautiful word is "tariff" for four decades. If they go into effect it goes higher. But why assume that the President of the USA will actually do what he just said he'd do in a big speech with giant printed props.
Auracle 2y ago
Trump was taking about tariffs, but nobody thought he’d take them this far, this fast. To be fair, it makes sense that if his…plan… is going to work, he needs to get in it quickly. 4 years isn’t a long period of time and if the country doesn’t recover economically before then the next president will absolutely just undo whatever he did. Even the midterms are a time limit. If things are bad enough then it would absolutely get people to vote for those that’ll take the power of tariffs back out of the president’s hands and back into congress’s. It’s actually kind of a big flaw with our system as a whole. Countries like China can do more long-term plans without worrying about silly things like electability. In this case, in theory I think Trump is right to wave our big economic stick around. In reality it won’t work because everyone can just wait for his time to be up. Even if countries negotiate there’s no reason to think they won’t reneg in 5 years.
- whatever1 2y ago
  We have the Senate for these long term decisions. But somehow it has become a useless bureaucracy due to the partisanship. Technically the President is not allowed to dictate financial policy. The current actions are done in the name of “emergency”, bypassing the Senate.
- cm2187 2y ago
  He has at most 3 to 6 months to get this sorted. After that a recession is all but guaranteed. His voters may not own stocks, but the people who own stocks are responsible for a huge part of consumer spending, and when they cut on spending, it is Trump voters who lose their jobs. As Cruz said, he has a very narrow window to not be wiped out at the midterms. I don't think anyone who voted Trump signed up for a recession.
- Infinity315 2y ago
  We do not want manufacturing jobs, they suck. America has an amazing thing going on where we can trade 1s and 0s in exchange for physical goods. We have an infinite renewable resource which costs nearly nothing to reproduce infinitely. We have a defacto monopoly on technology and digital services. I understand the national security reasons for having a domestic commercial manufacturing base. However, there is ZERO economic reasons to bring back manufacturing jobs.
alecco 2y ago
They are all crying for the audience, the losers. But see how even WSB idiots could see this coming and they are making a lot of money on shorts. And the premiums are sky high, meaning the big players are shorting like crazy. Easiest money to be made in decades for the Wall Street sharks.
- DeathArrow 2y ago
  There is an unlimited amount of money you can lose when shorting stocks.
  - solumunus 2y ago
    Not if you use put options like almost everyone. 99% of WSB are options trading.
    - DeathArrow 2y ago
      That is gambling, not investing. And you can lose lots of money by gambling. I don't believe it's the case, but what if Trump and friends are just wishing to play the markets and he will back off with tarrifs? We will see a massive short squeeze and lots of people taking huge losses.
      - optimiz3 2y ago
        > That is gambling, not investing. And you can lose lots of money by gambling. Most trading professionals would not call it gambling if you have positive expectation and a process. Positive expectation properly and repeatedly executed over time is a business. Would you say a casino is gambling by offering table games to customers?
        ModernMech 2y ago
        > Most trading professionals would not call it gambling if you have positive expectation and a process. Most gamblers have a positive expectation and a process.
cyanydeez 2y ago
[flagged]
belter 2y ago
If you ever though any of these guys makes their money because they are smarter, just watch this: https://youtu.be/bPdsN_YmP60?t=74 https://youtu.be/bPdsN_YmP60?t=74 https://youtu.be/JOBs27jckCo https://youtu.be/JOBs27jckCo
EasyMark 2y ago
not really, they had 4 years of trump before and they figured that was what going to happen. Instead his crazy train completely went off the rails and now he's just a bull in a china shop, showing his true level of idiocy because he surround himself with sycophants.

For whatever reason, people did not believe Trump would be this crazy. In fact, people in the stock market still do not believe he is this crazy. If they did, the stock market would drop much lower. From what I've heard from people in finance, the bond market is indicating some economic growth this year. If this goes on, expect a financial crisis which rivals that of the Great Depression. It's not a lack of foresight, it's just that they do not believe him or believe that someone will stop him. People have just misread Donald Trump and his intentions.

disgruntledphd2 2y ago
To be fair, he said he would do all this crazy stuff the first time but didn't. So there's some evidence for the position that he wouldn't do crazy stuff. Also, it's hard for people to understand that someone in power might just not understand why their decisions are a terrible, terrible idea (see politicians and backdooring encryption for a tech example of this).
- beAbU 2y ago
  He didn't do those things, or he couldn't? Not too familiar with American politics, but AIUI his majority was much weaker last time round, possibly resulting in some of his crazy being kept under control?
  - andelink 2y ago
    Yes, he couldn't. Anyone paying attention knows he tried.
    - disgruntledphd2 2y ago
      Well it was more that basically all the people he appointed talked him down last time. This time he picked based on loyalty, so it's pretty much whatever he wants (apparently tariffs).
ZeroGravitas 2y ago
Yes the latest Goldman Sachs recession forecast is 45% probability, which is what makes it into the headlines. However the report says this is assuming the tariffs won't go into effect. The flagship policy Trump just announced after going on about how the most beautiful word is "tariff" for four decades. If they go into effect it goes higher. But why assume that the President of the USA will actually do what he just said he'd do in a big speech with giant printed props.

Auracle 2y ago

Trump was taking about tariffs, but nobody thought he’d take them this far, this fast. To be fair, it makes sense that if his…plan… is going to work, he needs to get in it quickly. 4 years isn’t a long period of time and if the country doesn’t recover economically before then the next president will absolutely just undo whatever he did. Even the midterms are a time limit. If things are bad enough then it would absolutely get people to vote for those that’ll take the power of tariffs back out of the president’s hands and back into congress’s. It’s actually kind of a big flaw with our system as a whole. Countries like China can do more long-term plans without worrying about silly things like electability. In this case, in theory I think Trump is right to wave our big economic stick around. In reality it won’t work because everyone can just wait for his time to be up. Even if countries negotiate there’s no reason to think they won’t reneg in 5 years.

whatever1 2y ago
We have the Senate for these long term decisions. But somehow it has become a useless bureaucracy due to the partisanship. Technically the President is not allowed to dictate financial policy. The current actions are done in the name of “emergency”, bypassing the Senate.
cm2187 2y ago
He has at most 3 to 6 months to get this sorted. After that a recession is all but guaranteed. His voters may not own stocks, but the people who own stocks are responsible for a huge part of consumer spending, and when they cut on spending, it is Trump voters who lose their jobs. As Cruz said, he has a very narrow window to not be wiped out at the midterms. I don't think anyone who voted Trump signed up for a recession.
Infinity315 2y ago
We do not want manufacturing jobs, they suck. America has an amazing thing going on where we can trade 1s and 0s in exchange for physical goods. We have an infinite renewable resource which costs nearly nothing to reproduce infinitely. We have a defacto monopoly on technology and digital services. I understand the national security reasons for having a domestic commercial manufacturing base. However, there is ZERO economic reasons to bring back manufacturing jobs.

alecco 2y ago

They are all crying for the audience, the losers. But see how even WSB idiots could see this coming and they are making a lot of money on shorts. And the premiums are sky high, meaning the big players are shorting like crazy. Easiest money to be made in decades for the Wall Street sharks.

DeathArrow 2y ago
There is an unlimited amount of money you can lose when shorting stocks.
- solumunus 2y ago
  Not if you use put options like almost everyone. 99% of WSB are options trading.
  - DeathArrow 2y ago
    That is gambling, not investing. And you can lose lots of money by gambling. I don't believe it's the case, but what if Trump and friends are just wishing to play the markets and he will back off with tarrifs? We will see a massive short squeeze and lots of people taking huge losses.
    - optimiz3 2y ago
      > That is gambling, not investing. And you can lose lots of money by gambling. Most trading professionals would not call it gambling if you have positive expectation and a process. Positive expectation properly and repeatedly executed over time is a business. Would you say a casino is gambling by offering table games to customers?
      - ModernMech 2y ago
        > Most trading professionals would not call it gambling if you have positive expectation and a process. Most gamblers have a positive expectation and a process.

cyanydeez 2y ago

[flagged]

belter 2y ago

If you ever though any of these guys makes their money because they are smarter, just watch this: https://youtu.be/bPdsN_YmP60?t=74 https://youtu.be/bPdsN_YmP60?t=74 https://youtu.be/JOBs27jckCo https://youtu.be/JOBs27jckCo

EasyMark 2y ago

not really, they had 4 years of trump before and they figured that was what going to happen. Instead his crazy train completely went off the rails and now he's just a bull in a china shop, showing his true level of idiocy because he surround himself with sycophants.