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We have no evidence that Wang "was" disappeared. We know that he's nowhere to be found, that the university put him on leave weeks ago [0], and that the FBI rec

We have no evidence that Wang "was" disappeared. We know that he's nowhere to be found, that the university put him on leave weeks ago [0], and that the FBI recently searched his home. Notably, the university put him on leave weeks before the FBI searched his home. That sequence is better explained by the hypothesis that Wang vanished himself suddenly and the university called in the FBI to investigate things that they found in the aftermath. (Note that that's still pure speculation, but it's speculation that better accounts for all known facts.) [0] https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/more-details-on-situation-at-indiana-university https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/more-details-on-situati...

fracus 2y ago
Doesn't the sequence of events read more like the University found something grave enough to put him on leave and contact the FBI, and for both the teacher and school to keep it quiet?
- lupusreal 2y ago
  No, not really. That wouldn't explain the gap of weeks.
  - lolinder 2y ago
    Yes. If (in this hypothetical) the university found something worth contacting the FBI about before Wang knew he was made, we'd expect to see FBI action first and university action second, even if the university acted immediately after. The FBI would absolutely not allow the university to tip a suspect off weeks in advance of their planned raids.
  - fracus 2y ago
    Wouldn't the FBI need some time to digest the accusations made by the University and then build a case to pursue an investigation? Hearing the University has been captured by a right wing agenda and having an adversarial relationship with its teachers and students, I'm starting to think any conspiracy is plausible at this point.
tw04 2y ago
[flagged]
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- lolinder 2y ago
  If in the ensuing investigation they found out that he'd been spying for the PRC for the last 20 years and they were freaked out about the reputational implications of having been harboring a Chinese spy in a red state in the current political climate? I don't know anything for sure, my main point is that everything is speculation, but some speculation is better grounded in the facts than other speculation. EDIT: I see you've engaged in the very frustrating practice of editing your comment to reply to my comment. This time with even less etiquette than normal, because you didn't even have the courtesy to flag upfront that it was an edit. I'm not going to play that game by replying in turn, but I do want to call it out as bad form.
  - thaumasiotes 2y ago
    > EDIT: I see you've engaged in the very frustrating practice of editing your comment to reply to my comment. This time with even less etiquette than normal You should blame HN for that, not tw04. The site specifically promotes it.
- Rebelgecko 2y ago
  Obviously this is speculation, but one reason would be if the reasons for his disappearance would generate bad PR for the university and they were fairly sure both he and his wife were involved and won't be returning
slg 2y ago
On the long list of problems caused by the government "disappearing" people (which they have objectively been doing lately) is that it destroys trust and therefore makes even valid legal proceedings seem more shady than they would in a world in which due process was a universal guarantee in practice. I don't fault anyone for jumping to conclusions implicating the government is in the wrong here rather than Wang.
- lolinder 2y ago
  > by the government "disappearing" anyone (which they have objectively been doing lately) Notably, they haven't been "disappearing" people in the manner that would have to be happening here. Even the most egregious cases, which are very bad, have left a paper trail for lawyers and journalists to follow. This case is notable because no one seems to know where this man has gone. But yes, point taken: the extrajudicial actions of ICE recently are absolutely not helping people stay calm in the face of something like this.
  - slg 2y ago
    >Even the most egregious cases, which are very bad, have left a paper trail for lawyers and journalists to follow. How can you be confident in this? Is it possible that you are saying this because the only cases we know about are when they have happened to leave "a paper trail for lawyers and journalists to follow"?
    - lolinder 2y ago
      Sure, it's possible, but it's also speculation. You can't rationally use speculated possible hushed-up disappearances as evidence to fuel further speculation: there lies the road to totally unhinged conspiracy theories. If we see more cases like this one of someone disappearing without a trace and their disappearance getting documented but not explained, I'll accept this one as evidence to fuel future speculation. Until then, speculation used to fuel speculation is a dangerous path. EDIT: Apparently my reference to conspiracy theories is pushing buttons? Unfortunately this is literally true: the logic of the conspiracy theorist builds upon itself, with as minimal reference to exterior circumstances as possible. The lizard people did it. How do we know? Because they did it before! If we want to be different from conspiracy theorists, we need to cultivate an insistence on reasoning from documented facts, rather than building elaborate towers out of theories alone.
dathinab 2y ago
> the university put him on leave weeks but then why did his students not know about it? if normally a professor or similar is put on leave there are procedures about informing students in affected courses, replacement professors being found or courses being cancelled etc. the fact that this procedures seem to not have been followed is strange and looks like someone wanted this to go over without much attention that his wife seems to be affected too is even more strange that no even vague reason is told even now is also supper strange I mean thing about it especially given how much it has blown up there is no reason for them to not at least give a vague reason, if they don't it's because they can't (e.g. court order) or they have a good reason to not want to (which is strange by itself).
- kortilla 2y ago
  > but then why did his students not know about it? But the students do know. They are saying they can’t contact him, which is not the same as not knowing he’s on leave
bediger4000 2y ago
> That sequence is better explained by the hypothesis that Wang vanished himself That probably isn't correct given that IU has scrubbed him from their web pages. That alone makes this look like disappearing him and his wife. The feds unconstitutionally "disappearing" this couple doesn't exactly fit either, but based on the article, that's what fits best.
- lolinder 2y ago
  > That probably isn't correct given that IU has scrubbed him from their web pages. That alone makes this look like disappearing him and his wife. Why? As a possible explanation: Wang disappears suddenly and without warning. The university investigates and in the course of the investigation discovers that he was working as a spy for the PRC for the past 20 years while employed with them. They freak out, knowing that the current political climate (especially in their state) is one where they can't afford to become known as that school that harbored a Chinese spy, so they rush to try to keep everything under wraps. Unfortunately, they have to report what they found to the FBI, which proceeds to very un-subtley raid Wang's homes, drawing media attention and possibly triggering the firestorm they hoped to avoid. --- As with anything at this stage, this story is entirely supposition, but it does explain the known facts, and it explains them better than any other explanation I've seen floated in this thread.
  - KennyBlanken 2y ago
    [flagged]
  - stevage 2y ago
    He had students. The idea that the university thought they could suddenly pretend he never existed, and this would not become news, is not plausible.
    - endominus 2y ago
      One thing the Streisand effect illuminates is a certain type of person is not fully able to model the consequences of trying to keep information secret. It's absolutely plausible that someone in the university administration actually believed that they could tell the FBI "please keep this secret in order to protect our reputation" and that their request would outweight the agency's other duties. There exist people that are that self-important.
tptacek 2y ago
Do we even know that he's "nowhere to be found"? "Not answering Dan Goodin's requests for quotes", or even "not responding to his grad students" is not the same thing as that.
- lolinder 2y ago
  No, and that's a good call-out.
stevage 2y ago
Your hypothesis definitely doesn't account for the university scrubbing him from their website.
- lolinder 2y ago
  It accounts for it substantially better than the government whisking him away. I laid out the hypothesis in full here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43528036 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43528036 Again, pure speculation, as is everything right now.
sbassi 2y ago
That is the way it works, there is no "evidence of being disappeared", as there is no negative probe. This already happened in Argentina in the 70's, there were no record, in many cases until several years after, or never.
suraci 2y ago
This Wang looks suspicious.
croes 2y ago
If he vanished himself why did the university remove him from the web pages?

fracus 2y ago

Doesn't the sequence of events read more like the University found something grave enough to put him on leave and contact the FBI, and for both the teacher and school to keep it quiet?

lupusreal 2y ago
No, not really. That wouldn't explain the gap of weeks.
- lolinder 2y ago
  Yes. If (in this hypothetical) the university found something worth contacting the FBI about before Wang knew he was made, we'd expect to see FBI action first and university action second, even if the university acted immediately after. The FBI would absolutely not allow the university to tip a suspect off weeks in advance of their planned raids.
- fracus 2y ago
  Wouldn't the FBI need some time to digest the accusations made by the University and then build a case to pursue an investigation? Hearing the University has been captured by a right wing agenda and having an adversarial relationship with its teachers and students, I'm starting to think any conspiracy is plausible at this point.

tw04 2y ago

[flagged]

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
lolinder 2y ago
If in the ensuing investigation they found out that he'd been spying for the PRC for the last 20 years and they were freaked out about the reputational implications of having been harboring a Chinese spy in a red state in the current political climate? I don't know anything for sure, my main point is that everything is speculation, but some speculation is better grounded in the facts than other speculation. EDIT: I see you've engaged in the very frustrating practice of editing your comment to reply to my comment. This time with even less etiquette than normal, because you didn't even have the courtesy to flag upfront that it was an edit. I'm not going to play that game by replying in turn, but I do want to call it out as bad form.
- thaumasiotes 2y ago
  > EDIT: I see you've engaged in the very frustrating practice of editing your comment to reply to my comment. This time with even less etiquette than normal You should blame HN for that, not tw04. The site specifically promotes it.
Rebelgecko 2y ago
Obviously this is speculation, but one reason would be if the reasons for his disappearance would generate bad PR for the university and they were fairly sure both he and his wife were involved and won't be returning

slg 2y ago

On the long list of problems caused by the government "disappearing" people (which they have objectively been doing lately) is that it destroys trust and therefore makes even valid legal proceedings seem more shady than they would in a world in which due process was a universal guarantee in practice. I don't fault anyone for jumping to conclusions implicating the government is in the wrong here rather than Wang.

lolinder 2y ago
> by the government "disappearing" anyone (which they have objectively been doing lately) Notably, they haven't been "disappearing" people in the manner that would have to be happening here. Even the most egregious cases, which are very bad, have left a paper trail for lawyers and journalists to follow. This case is notable because no one seems to know where this man has gone. But yes, point taken: the extrajudicial actions of ICE recently are absolutely not helping people stay calm in the face of something like this.
- slg 2y ago
  >Even the most egregious cases, which are very bad, have left a paper trail for lawyers and journalists to follow. How can you be confident in this? Is it possible that you are saying this because the only cases we know about are when they have happened to leave "a paper trail for lawyers and journalists to follow"?
  - lolinder 2y ago
    Sure, it's possible, but it's also speculation. You can't rationally use speculated possible hushed-up disappearances as evidence to fuel further speculation: there lies the road to totally unhinged conspiracy theories. If we see more cases like this one of someone disappearing without a trace and their disappearance getting documented but not explained, I'll accept this one as evidence to fuel future speculation. Until then, speculation used to fuel speculation is a dangerous path. EDIT: Apparently my reference to conspiracy theories is pushing buttons? Unfortunately this is literally true: the logic of the conspiracy theorist builds upon itself, with as minimal reference to exterior circumstances as possible. The lizard people did it. How do we know? Because they did it before! If we want to be different from conspiracy theorists, we need to cultivate an insistence on reasoning from documented facts, rather than building elaborate towers out of theories alone.

dathinab 2y ago

> the university put him on leave weeks but then why did his students not know about it? if normally a professor or similar is put on leave there are procedures about informing students in affected courses, replacement professors being found or courses being cancelled etc. the fact that this procedures seem to not have been followed is strange and looks like someone wanted this to go over without much attention that his wife seems to be affected too is even more strange that no even vague reason is told even now is also supper strange I mean thing about it especially given how much it has blown up there is no reason for them to not at least give a vague reason, if they don't it's because they can't (e.g. court order) or they have a good reason to not want to (which is strange by itself).

kortilla 2y ago
> but then why did his students not know about it? But the students do know. They are saying they can’t contact him, which is not the same as not knowing he’s on leave

bediger4000 2y ago

> That sequence is better explained by the hypothesis that Wang vanished himself That probably isn't correct given that IU has scrubbed him from their web pages. That alone makes this look like disappearing him and his wife. The feds unconstitutionally "disappearing" this couple doesn't exactly fit either, but based on the article, that's what fits best.

lolinder 2y ago
> That probably isn't correct given that IU has scrubbed him from their web pages. That alone makes this look like disappearing him and his wife. Why? As a possible explanation: Wang disappears suddenly and without warning. The university investigates and in the course of the investigation discovers that he was working as a spy for the PRC for the past 20 years while employed with them. They freak out, knowing that the current political climate (especially in their state) is one where they can't afford to become known as that school that harbored a Chinese spy, so they rush to try to keep everything under wraps. Unfortunately, they have to report what they found to the FBI, which proceeds to very un-subtley raid Wang's homes, drawing media attention and possibly triggering the firestorm they hoped to avoid. --- As with anything at this stage, this story is entirely supposition, but it does explain the known facts, and it explains them better than any other explanation I've seen floated in this thread.
- KennyBlanken 2y ago
  [flagged]
- stevage 2y ago
  He had students. The idea that the university thought they could suddenly pretend he never existed, and this would not become news, is not plausible.
  - endominus 2y ago
    One thing the Streisand effect illuminates is a certain type of person is not fully able to model the consequences of trying to keep information secret. It's absolutely plausible that someone in the university administration actually believed that they could tell the FBI "please keep this secret in order to protect our reputation" and that their request would outweight the agency's other duties. There exist people that are that self-important.

tptacek 2y ago

Do we even know that he's "nowhere to be found"? "Not answering Dan Goodin's requests for quotes", or even "not responding to his grad students" is not the same thing as that.

lolinder 2y ago
No, and that's a good call-out.

stevage 2y ago

Your hypothesis definitely doesn't account for the university scrubbing him from their website.

lolinder 2y ago
It accounts for it substantially better than the government whisking him away. I laid out the hypothesis in full here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43528036 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43528036 Again, pure speculation, as is everything right now.

sbassi 2y ago

That is the way it works, there is no "evidence of being disappeared", as there is no negative probe. This already happened in Argentina in the 70's, there were no record, in many cases until several years after, or never.

suraci 2y ago

This Wang looks suspicious.

croes 2y ago

If he vanished himself why did the university remove him from the web pages?