28 ms·

Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?

• freleys 2y ago
  elon and trump will become frenemies (tesla will go down) and google will become better in ai then open ai
• felipevb 2y ago
  "Dumb electronics" will be hot - iPods/MP3players, dumbphones, e-ink screens/phones/readers, film cameras.
• anastasiaess 2y ago
  Finally going to have proper inflow of training data for 3D & robotics. 3D has its LLM moment. Simulation gets a major brain boost it’s so janky to make scenes rn. Early research on vaccines to help the body synthesize or remove small particles like plastics and pollutants. An update on mandatory nutrition labels. Devastating cyberphysical infrastructure incident due to natural disaster or hack. We get through it with love and grace, to everyone’s surprise. I get into grad school, I hope.
• paulcole 2y ago
  TikTok ban becomes a nothingburger.
• armchairhacker 2y ago
  2024 may not have been the year of the Vision Pro as I anticipated. But I have a good feeling 2025 will be the year of the US third party.
• ben_w 2y ago
  Starship: first attempt at the Moon, I'd guess 80%. No Mars windows. -- AI: wildly unpredictable at every stage and in every regard. Cheaper, better, faster, more drama, that's all easy to predict, but how much of each and which specific benchmarks/legal issues are not. Only AI capability predictions I will make are: • Probably still no Tesla level 5 FSD, but Waymo will continue rolling out slowly and cautiously. • Androids will still be split into cheap toys and expensive industrial equipment, not fully general domestic servants -- Power: • Wind power increases 7-21% • PV increases 20-26% • Fusion has some press releases, doesn't demonstrate much useful • Battery production increases by about 33% while getting about 14% cheaper per unit -- BigTech companies: • At least one FAANG gets split up properly, possibly multiple. They've been annoying too many governments for too long. • X gets more drama, but details are unpredictable. Could equally be "bankrupt", "mandatory for US federal government", "banned in EU, UK, Australia", "sold to Trump personally". -- Consumer tech: • Computers get about 31% more power efficient • 50%: Some specific Smart Dust product revealed to public, people announce expensive paint contianing x motes of smart dust per litre. • VR/AR: 25% dropped from news cycle like 3D TV, 50% continues like games consoles, 25% something that currently seems sci-fi -- Geopolitics: • Musk finds $2T to cut (66%), Congress pretends to take it seriously (80%), but nobody wants the cuts in their district (99.9%) so it stalls unless and until Musk can find a way to effectively buy out the downsides (80% chance Musk finds a way at all, but only 25% chance the method he finds is actually legal). • US weapons stop being sent to Ukraine: (completely banned even for sale: 5%; they can be sold but no more are given "for free": 60-70%; repeat of previous Trump request for dirt on domestic opponents in exchange for aid: 30-40%) • EU aid stops going to Ukraine: 1% while they remain independent, 99% if they get conquered. • Ukraine develops nuclear deterrent: 30-50% if aid stops or is threatened, otherwise 5-10% • Putin dies: assassinated, ~2%; all other causes, ~4% • Trump dies: assassinated, 1-2.25%; all other causes, 5-6%
• AnuragPola 2y ago
  We will get a new Turing Test for AIs
• deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
• miletus 2y ago
  We compiled some of the most interesting AI predictions from Hacker News into a visual! Here's the link: https://x.com/0xmetaschool/status/1871132412887158966 https://x.com/0xmetaschool/status/1871132412887158966
• ilrwbwrkhv 2y ago
  I will start off with an uncommon one: Gambling addiction in kids is through the roof, sports betting, crypto betting, csgo skin betting. These are being openly advertised and we will start seeing the first major push towards stopping some of them. Some of the owners of the most uncommon Counterstrike skin gambling sites are making about $50 million a month.
  • CubsFan1060 2y ago
    A search for CSGO skin betting brings up a ton of sites, but I still have no idea what it is. Can you explain it? I don't really understand what is being bet on there. (Also, I'm slightly scared of the answer)
    • xelfer 2y ago
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skin_gambling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skin_gambling I assume
    • viraptor 2y ago
      Good timing! If you have a spare hour that is. Coffeezilla just released two videos digging into the csgo skin casinos business: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q58dLWjRTBE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q58dLWjRTBE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6jhjjVy5Ls https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6jhjjVy5Ls
  • ChocolateGod 2y ago
    > Gambling addiction in kids is through the roof, sports betting, crypto betting, csgo skin betting Hopefully content creators will get persecuted for selling crypto pump and dump schemes towards kids.
  • dysoco 2y ago
    I thought this was already happening everywhere. This is already happening in my country (Argentina) and just recently a law was voted (half chamber only) to not allow promoting gambling sites in football, game streams, etc.
• threatofrain 2y ago
  Smart home category will heat up.
  • andrewinardeer 2y ago
    Can you please elaborate on your position? In what context?
    • walterbell 2y ago
      Thread-over-Matter mesh networking UWB in door locks Unlicensed 6Ghz spectrum Apple room panels (AI/conferencing/control) Apple security cameras, door locks Apple iPad-on-motorized-pole In-home AI/media servers (Mac Mini/Studio, Tinybox) Speech interfaces based on open-source stacks
      • mrweasel 2y ago
        If Apple, as rumored, ships an HomeKit hub with a screen I can see the category warming up. Sadly it seems that a lot of IoT/Smart Home companies avoids supporting HomeKit as they want to be in control of data collection and the ecosystem in general.
        • threatofrain 2y ago
          Also rumored is that Apple may release something for FaceID door access.
• threeseed 2y ago
  It will be the year of the grift. Musk has already indicated they want to neuter the regulators and implement a proper regulatory environment for crypto. But obviously in a laissez-faire way. So I would expect to see a lot of rug-pulling, insider trading etc.
• zitterbewegung 2y ago
  It will be the year of open source AI due to it being only slightly harder to scale up which gives Meta the chance to meet or beat OpenAI. XR improves a bit more but headsets will still be expensive. Large movies and video games that cost above $200 million to make will flop around 75% or more.
  • pxne7e 2y ago
    Idk large corps are already getting comfy using OpenAI (Microsoft) I dont see them shifting cause they are all inept at doing things themselves. They need a lot of handholding which is why Microsoft is still alive.
• franze 2y ago
  Google will announce new products (will call them initiatives) and will not launch them to the general public. ChatGPT Search will get significant (high 1 digit) share of the search market.
  • nextos 2y ago
    Perplexity, Phind, Grok, etc. are surprisingly good already as search engines. Perplexity is better than Google for most of my common use-cases.
  • ChocolateGod 2y ago
    Google will rename their AI product at least 3 times, Google will also launch and shut down at least 5 messaging services.
    • 6510 2y ago
      Google AI will be better and more popular than the rest before they shut it down.
      • ChocolateGod 2y ago
        Google Domains was arguably a success and they shut it down.
  • bmcahren 2y ago
    I'll bandwagon on chat.com getting 10% or higher marketshare. Look back at Google search's 800 number; https://techcrunch.com/2013/05/12/google-kills-sms-search/ https://techcrunch.com/2013/05/12/google-kills-sms-search/ (the only article I could find). We're at that stage of chat.com going mainstream. Already chat.com is a better experience for finding local shops and restaurants. ChatGPT voice mode was surgically amazing while driving. I had a personal assistant refining criteria to find the perfect shop to find the gift I wanted that was open and on my way to my destination. I don't think there is a moat for search given the power of AI tools.
    • 2y ago
• andy_ppp 2y ago
  Dopamine management medication will lead to a renaissance of human ingenuity and scientific discoveries and a big crash for social media and gambling sites (and in fact most online activities) but everyone will start becoming more robotic and even less social. Think GLP-1 inhibitors except for thinking more deeply and for longer periods. If not 2025 very soon.
  • philwelch 2y ago
    These already exist, they’re called CNS stimulants.
    • morkalork 2y ago
      Sounds like they're describing the opposite of CNS stimulants though. People take meth and coke and go on se, gambling binges. Something that moderates and manages dopamine in a way that breaks the hold gambling and social media has on people's brains would be very different. Something that dulls the retative mini-bursts of dopamine hits you get with every click and scroll.
      • reshlo 2y ago
        > People take meth and coke and go on se, gambling binges. Something that moderates and manages dopamine in a way that breaks the hold gambling and social media has on people's brains would be very different. Simplifying a lot here, but people with ADHD are statistically more likely to exhibit addictive behaviours because the addiction provides dopamine that their brain otherwise has trouble getting. Treatment with prescribed CNS stimulants is very effective at preventing those behaviours because the brain no longer has to engage in the addictive behaviours to obtain sufficient dopamine. Here’s one study where patients reported significantly lower rates of alcohol and drug use over at least a one year period. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23264367/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23264367/
  • impostervt 2y ago
    Do GLP-1 already do this, to some extent?
• jmclnx 2y ago
  AI Investments will slow down. A bit out there but I will go on a limb :)
  • OutOfHere 2y ago
    It's not just a bit out there; it's completely antithetical to what we're seeing in the data.
    • aidenn0 2y ago
      You have data for AI investments in 2025?
      • ninetyninenine 2y ago
        He means via trendline prediction.
        • OutOfHere 2y ago
          Yes, on the basis of https://www.pymnts.com/artificial-intelligence-2/2024/ai-companies-receive-42-of-us-venture-capital-investment/ https://www.pymnts.com/artificial-intelligence-2/2024/ai-com...
          • mrbungie 2y ago
            Those are VC investments, nothing new to see here. They have all the incentives to ride the AI hype cycle, grow those investments and extract as much value from them as they can. Just as they've done before with other cycles as Big Data, Metaverse, Crypto/DeFi, etc. Think about it, how many practically identical AI IDEs/editors are sponsored by YC alone? They're just hoping one of all those projects stick along enough to cash at least something in. The big question is about trends in AI investment and usage from "old" corporations, SMBs and common people. Those will indicate if the world is really trusting the tech.
            • 2y ago
• AIFounder 2y ago
  [dead]
• CubsFan1060 2y ago
  There are even more restrictions aimed at stopping kids using social media. Restrictions on phone use in schools, who can sign up for social media, etc.. Additionally, that it'll eventually prove to be a wild success, with significant benefit to kids. On the darker side, the same technologies and restrictions will be applied in various ways to adults (similar to the porn verification laws), which will have significantly more negative effects.
  • thepuppet33r 2y ago
    I'm still not sure how they plan to enforce this. Even now, I see an age verification popup on both illicit sites and even sites I feel are innocuous. But I can just click that I'm old enough to move on. If the social media companies are only trying to shift blame, this makes sense. They're not liable if the customer lies. But if that loophole is closed, the only way to enforce age approved sites would be a global identity system that is somehow inextricably linked to your real-life persona. Everything you do online is linked to who you are. And that's VERY dystopian and doesn't (yet) exist to my knowledge.
    • bruce511 2y ago
      There's a parent-driven approach I'm hearing about more and more. Parents in a school get together and agree on smartphone accessibility. For example "no smart phone till high school, dumb Nokia for comms if required". This is hyper-local but works well because there's no peer pressure- nobody has one etc. The other effective approach in play is "no screens in private areas" - ie no screens in bedrooms and bathrooms. This also has very beneficial outcomes on kids, and seems to be gathering steam. I think govt type bans are easily circumvented, and basically useless. But parental rules, especially if common in the child's social circle, are proving to be a good starting point.
      • _DeadFred_ 2y ago
        Sounds like a business opportunity. Make a token (Bluetooth low energy token?) that parents can place in the location where devices can be used. Either have it baked into the hardware's software (so Apple would need to support it) or sell a Wifi router that only allows the 'screen' devices to connect to wifi when the token senses the device (which would make it work for any device with wifi and Bluetooth token's ranges).
• OutOfHere 2y ago
  #1 Something has to happen of the drones that are over various US military sites. People seem to want to bury their head in the sand, not acknowledging China owns substantial "farmland" in the US, especially near military sites, that could in theory be home to any number of drone bases. If China is preparing for war, it could risk a global catastrophe. #2 The Russia-Ukraine war is likely to come to a peaceful end. Putin seems to have mostly lost his appetite for war, and we know that Trump will not want to fund Ukraine any more. Ukraine will have to accept the loss of some conquered territory. #3 With regard to non-CoT LLMs, gpt-4o becomes worse on all relevant benchmarks compared to the leading open source models. Currently, as I understand, it still wins on some benchmarks. #4 Tiktok, if not all social media, gets banned for those under 18 on the grounds of foreign influence, although ID requirements get struck down, and kids can misrepresent their age.
• djaouen 2y ago
  * AI will fizzle out. * We will finally do something about climate change. * The world will finally become sane again. Just kidding! Lol
• flax 2y ago
  Trump and cronies will absolutely wreck market stability. There will be actual shortages of basic products. But they will not be acknowledged as mistakes since the companies will be able to price gouge and maintain profits. There will be at more attempts at more CEO and billionaire murders. They will use propaganda and media manipulation to muddle the grassroots approval of similar action, and change the narrative around Luigi. Everything will get more expensive. More layoffs. Most people will have to work much harder for much less, but it'll be okay because number will go up.
  • zusammen 2y ago
    [dead]
• morkalork 2y ago
  Society will continue regressing towards the mean of the last few thousand years. Less American exceptionalism, more serfdom and misery. Maybe polio will make a come back!
• JohnBrookz 2y ago
  The decline continues but steeper. Market instability
• aidenn0 2y ago
  I'm going to get older and gain weight.
  • dataviz1000 2y ago
    aidenn0 goes to gym, buys a 10 day pass, and starts using the machines on the lowest weight after watching a series of Youtube videos on how to safely use the equipment. After increase the weight every few weeks because it has become too easy, aidenn0 has washboard abs that get shown off at the beach or pool in summer 2025. lol
    • lizzas 2y ago
      He will still get older, and could gain (muscle) weight!
    • aidenn0 2y ago
      I go to the gym 2-3 times a week. A good workout can't defeat a bad diet.
• whycome 2y ago
  Predictions from 2008: National Intelligence Council/Director of National Intelligence - Global Trends 2025 https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Reports%20and%20Pubs/2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Reports%20and%2...
  • titaniumtown 2y ago
    Thank you for this link! Interesting read. Looking into predictions regarding climate change is interesting. Especially on page 46 (pdf page 66), the section titled "Winners and Losers in a Post-Petroleum World". > We believe the most likely occurrence by 2025 is a technological breakthrough that will provide an alternative to oil and natural gas, but implementation will lag because of the necessary infrastructure costs and need for longer replacement time. However, whether the breakthrough occurs within the 2025 time frame or later, the geopolitical implications of a shift away from oil and natural gas will be immense. I wonder if solar's dirt-cheap cost would be considered a "breakthrough". Interesting breakdown on how major OPEC countries will be affected by such a "breakthrough". Great read! Edit: This prediction is wild also: (Page 62, pdf page 83) > A Non-nuclear Korea? > We see a unified Korea as likely by 2025—if not as a unitary state, then in some form of North-South confederation. While diplomacy working to end North Korea’s nuclear weapons program continues, the final disposition of the North’s nuclear infrastructure and capabilities at the time of reunification remain uncertain. A new, reunified Korea struggling with the large financial burden of reconstruction will, however, be more likely to find international acceptance and economic assistance by ensuring the denuclearization of the Peninsula, perhaps in a manner similar to what occurred in Ukraine post-1991. A loosely confederated Korea might complicate denuclearization efforts. Other strategic consequences are likely to flow from Korean unification, including prospects for new levels of major power cooperation to manage new and enduring challenges, such as denuclearization, demilitarization, refugee flows, and financing reconstruction. Edit 2: (Page 75, pdf page 95) > Potential Emergence of a Global Pandemic > Experts consider highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) strains, such as H5N1, to be likely candidates for such a transformation, but other pathogens—such as the SARS coronavirus or other influenza strains—also have this potential. ... > If a pandemic disease emerges, it probably will first occur in an area marked by high population density and close association between humans and animals, such as many areas of China and Southeast Asia, where human populations live in close proximity to livestock. Unregulated animal husbandry practices could allow a zoonotic disease such as H5N1 to circulate in livestock populations—increasing the opportunity for mutation into a strain with pandemic potential. To propagate effectively, a disease would have to be transmitted to areas of higher population density > Outside the US, critical infrastructure degradation and economic loss on a global scale would result as approximately a third of the worldwide population became ill and hundreds of millions died. At least we didn't get hundreds of millions dead. That's pretty grim.
• LinuxBender 2y ago
  Someone here will enter 2024 on a form that requires the date.
• nothrowaways 2y ago
  New LLama will be released. Efforts of the team will be appreciated publicly. It will remain the most impactful open model.
• BugsJustFindMe 2y ago
  Forget about 2025. I predict that, despite being a highly valued member of my organization and despite my company making money hand over fist, I will not get a holiday bonus this year.
  • tcrenshaw 2y ago
    Maybe you'll get a subscription to the jelly of the month club. It's the gift that keeps on giving
  • pxne7e 2y ago
    Dont cry about it. Just switch companies. If you are high value it should be easy.
    • mdaniel 2y ago
      That may have been true once upon a time, but there have been several threads over the past month or so citing that folks can't get calls back and encounter a ton of ghost job postings. Or maybe we have differing definitions of "high value"
  • HumblyTossed 2y ago
    "Best year ever!" "Sorry, we can't do raises this year." Who is getting all the money?
    • saghm 2y ago
      The "job creators"
    • cedws 2y ago
      I recall a parasite that attaches itself to the tongues of fish and takes its own share of whatever the fish consumes. There’s organisational equivalents of this.
• hypoxia 2y ago
  I think the defining story of 2025 will be AI agents getting very good with computer use, largely enabled by RL fine tuning.
  • OutOfHere 2y ago
    Could you help understand the importance of RL finetuning? What can it accomplish that regular finetuning can't? What's a use case for it?
    • hypoxia 2y ago
      From my experience there are three key issues with agents today: 1. They usually don't end up completing the right set of steps required to complete tasks when using our human-defined frameworks (react, rewoo, supervisor-worker, teams of multi-agents, etc.) 2. They get lost easily, and forget what they were doing or complete the same tasks over and over in a loop (bad planning) 3. They exit early, thinking they have completed the task when they have not (bad evaluation) The jump in reasoning ability from 4o to o3 will enable a drastic improvement in planning and execution within our human defined frameworks. But, more importantly, I believe RL fine tuning will enable the model to learn better general approaches to planning and executing steps to complete work. This is Sutton's bitter lesson at work. For me, desktop automation is the killer app of RL fine tuning, rather than better reasoning in chatbot apps and APIs. When OpenAI releases their desktop agent capabilities built on this, hopefully in Jan, I think we're going to see another ChatGPT moment. Even if not, the ability to easily train the system to complete your tasks successfully with full desktop usage is going to be a major unlock for enterprises. More on RL fine tuning here: https://openai.com/form/rft-research-program/ https://openai.com/form/rft-research-program/
  • anonzzzies 2y ago
    Lets hope so; computer use with AI is currently absolutely terrible. It is something I expected to see far larger progress in this year but it's no better than last year.
    • hypoxia 2y ago
• paulpauper 2y ago
  Stocks keep going up Trump inaugurated without any incident 2 more mass shootings Advances in LLM and other Ai US economy keeps growing and outperforming rest of world.
  • ks2048 2y ago
    "2 more mass shootings"? There were 488 in the US in 2024. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-41488081 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-41488081
  • kc711 2y ago
    Only 2? try 500
  • codingdave 2y ago
    OK, that covers the first 3 weeks of January, so technically true.
• siltcakes 2y ago
  Venture Capital as an asset class completely collapses and we seek grassroots alternatives to funding innovation, without the compromise to capital.
• totaldude87 2y ago
  Get ready for your AI Smart Toaster.. On a serious note 2025 will be year of AI and Tools. Prepared to have AI on every damn thing that you visit digitally. Another step towards autonomous driving. Short content becoming more popular.
• iamthemonster 2y ago
  1. There will be a renaming of "social media" as people note that there is nothing social about being served endless ads, ragebait and distracting videos with no actual social interaction happening. 2. The "social media" giants will invest more in public affairs to improve their image as public resistance grows. Expect lots of research papers getting funded that sow doubt and fear about banning children from social media, following similar strategies to tobacco and oil industries. 3. Miraculously, Truth Social and X will be exempt from the same controls put on other platforms. Justified on the basis that they are official communication channels for the government.
  • soupfordummies 2y ago
    I like this. Got any ideas for the rename? Something like “Mini TV Scroll”, IDK
    • iamthemonster 2y ago
      "Manipulative Slot Machines (MSM)" maybe? "Zucktube", "Antisocial Media", "Ragescrolling" I'm not sure any of those are quite perfect though. I fear that I'm sounding a bit like an old fart that calls it InstaFaceSnap.
• redundantly 2y ago
  A significant portion of the US population will lose nearly everything. Their investments will collapse, their benefits will be stripped away, and they will fall victim to countless scams, or be outright robbed. Much of this will happen through official channels, as restrictions and oversight on corporations and government organizations are reduced or eliminated entirely.
  • threeseed 2y ago
    Or because of the ageing population they will have a life threatening incident. Which Medicare will fail to cover due to its budget being cut and private health insurance companies refusing to pay for procedures the Doctor orders. And so I would expect to see medical bankruptcy being far more common.
  • bruce511 2y ago
    I agree with the rest, but not necessarily investments collapsing. It seems to me that the incoming administration will be friendly to business, gutting consumer and environmental protections. Assuming tarrifs happen, there will be price hikes. And if there are general price hikes it's easy (and sometimes necessary) to hike your own prices even if you're not directly affected. This will improve profits (at least in the short term). So, I expect the stock market to do very well. The rich will get richer. The middle class will be pushed down. But yeah, the 95% are about to get what they voted for.
    • redundantly 2y ago
      > It seems to me that the incoming administration will be friendly to business Friendly to some businesses. Stocks aren't the only investments people make. Their own small businesses, homes and other property, crypto, etc.
      • seanmcdirmid 2y ago
        I wonder if trump will actually go through with the tariffs though. If it is as widespread on day one as he keeps bragging about, the stock market would surely crash.
• throwmeaway2024 2y ago
  "Hybrid WW3" continues. Russia advances most everywhere in the proxy politics space (perhaps paradoxically except Syria.) Western economies continue on their troll-induced march to self-implosion. The defamation attacks on their Comparative Advantage industries intensify, particularly: - Non-Musk Big Tech / AI - Non-Musk aerospace (=> Boeing) - Wall Street / non-crypto finance - Non-Musk automotive - Hollywood Immigration is halted or reversed in most Western countries, halving long-term GDP growth. Hard to say whether the H5N1 flu will turn into another pandemic.
  • kittikitti 2y ago
    How do you mention geopolitics and a potential WW3 without mentioning the Middle East and Israel?
    • friend_Fernando 2y ago
      Gaza was heartbreaking, but the story was amplified in the US to suppress progressive turnout. I think I saw the same fingerprints on both sides. Either way, the Battle of Oil is mostly over. The ME is increasingly irrelevant. Arab leaders predicted this long ago [1]. [1] https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/acref/9780191843730.001.0001/q-oro-ed5-00017466 https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/acref/978019...
      • dang 2y ago
        Could you please stop creating accounts for every few comments you post? We ban accounts that do that. This is in the site guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html. You needn't use your real name, of course, but for HN to be a community, users need some identity for other users to relate to. Otherwise we may as well have no usernames and no community, and that would be a different kind of forum. https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comment&storyText=false&prefix&page=0&query=community%20identity%20by:dang https://hn.algolia.com/?sort=byDate&dateRange=all&type=comme...
• Scubabear68 2y ago
  2025 will be a year of chaos, uncertainty, and a lot of unhappiness across the world. The US election gives Donald Trump a second act, with limited but real support of both houses and a lock on the Supreme Court. He in turn has nominated quite the cast of characters. Meanwhile governments around the world are teetering or falling. A global trade war is likely. Shooting wars like Ukraine and Israel? Who knows. Mass shooting events are probably going to go up. Prices certainly will. The release of hundreds of thousands of social media and “FAANG” developers back into regular society without their massive pay checks will continue to have positive effects on tech. The rest of the world will be able to afford to hire developers again :-) AI will continue to be a vaudeville act, bright lights and pretty girls and loud noises won’t distract from the fact that generative AI is ultimately a dead end. The new administration will do something incredibly dumb with cryptocurrency. Multiple cabinet members will be indicted before 2026 is here. Finally, Trump will have influenced enough leaders to allow him to change his middle name from John to Johne, he will use this technicality to run for a third term as “New Trump”, will win and enshrine the middle name loophole into history.
• agumonkey 2y ago
  AI needs for efficiency will push computing outside of silicon. More analog computing metaphors everywhere. UX / UI might evaporate significantly
• brynet 2y ago
  I finally get adopted by a nice family of sentient pizzas in 2025. https://brynet.ca/wallofpizza.html https://brynet.ca/wallofpizza.html
  • deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
• rvz 2y ago
  Given the hype in AI and crypto, I unfortunately predict that there will be widespread layoffs in 2025. Usually I had a habit of getting my predictions on point, now I hope this prediction is wrong since we all know most predictions in this thread will be wrong; just like last year.
  • wruza 2y ago
    This is actually relieving. People are very pessimistic itt (lol see the top comment for the past year https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38777115 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38777115 ).
    • anonzzzies 2y ago
      I find this all way too optimistic. Cannot imagine any of this year current top comment will happen with grifters at the top of the biggest economy, and with the speed of AI taking out jobs (which people deny here, I guess because big traditional companies are lagging behind); I think in 2025 this will become very visible.
• rtfeldman 2y ago
  Back in 2019 I gave a conference talk in which I made four predictions about Web development in 2020 and 2025: https://youtu.be/okrB3aJtUaw https://youtu.be/okrB3aJtUaw I feel confident at least two of the predictions (about TypeScript and npm) are going to be true at the end of 2025. I feel less confident about the predictions about WebAssembly and compile-to-JS languages.
• deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
• Sloowms 2y ago
  Many predictions here are about social media. My prediction is that the first amendment rights they've won themselves are going to bite them in 2025. The first ruling has already happened: https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/national-international/tiktok-must-face-lawsuit-over-nyla-anderson-blackout-challenge-death-court/3372678/ https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/national-international/t... What this ruling means is that the algorithm is a expression of the first amendment from the platform itself. If the algorithm does harmful things it causes first party liability. My prediction is that the administration will not do much to the social media giants but class action lawsuits will.
• agomez314 2y ago
  * drone tech will heat up and find its "moment." * Bitcoin will continue to increase in price and decrease in usability. * Quantum will continue to improve and start to raise eyebrows in niche circles and paper headlines, leading to adoption in small parts of major tech companies. * Markets will hit a record high by end of year. * ADHD medications will also hit a record high. * More people will opt out social media like they opt of out of "GMO" food and use it to virtue-signal. * Tech hiring will continue to decrease and get tougher to find entry-level SWE jobs, leading to an uptick in other majors. Being an SWE will never be as cool again as it was in the 2010s. * Is anyone still talking about climate change action goals? * Starship will go orbital, Blue origin will go suborbital, Boeing will hit the ground. * More laws regulating internet and social media use. Enforcement will be fuzzy and laughable at first but will become increasingly serious over time.
  • viraptor 2y ago
    > ADHD medications will also hit a record high. Do you mean that the current volume restrictions will be removed?
• kingnothing 2y ago
  US enters recession in Q1 2025. There's no "soft landing". The correlation between federal interest rate cuts and recessions perfectly predicts this.
  • klysm 2y ago
    Suppose the correlation was this simple and reliable, why don’t the markets already reflect it?
    • willturman 2y ago
      Alan Greenspan phrased it as “irrational exuberance”. Also, most Americans’ tax advantaged retirement accounts (via 401Ks) are locked in with consistent contributions to diversified index funds or ETFs containing primarily large market cap companies that make up a majority of the stock market.
      • klysm 2y ago
        There is certainly a bias towards long positions due to these dynamics, but wouldn’t you expect this to be at least reflected in derivative markets? The way I understand it is, if there was such a simple correlation, someone smarter and more equipped than me would already be betting on it at enough scale for the information to be integrated into prices. If you can reliably make accurate predictions, then why on earth would you be talking about it instead of making the correspond bet via some combination of securities?
        • kingnothing 2y ago
          Some of those people are. Buffet is sitting on $325B in cash for example. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/22/buffett-heads-into-2025-with-biggest-cash-position-in-more-than-30-years.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/22/buffett-heads-into-2025-with...
    • shadowerm 2y ago
      Not saying I agree with the parent comment but the reason would be because the concept of the efficient market is overly simplistic nonsense? It is really a great example of how much human knowledge is really just the repeating of a standardized, agreed upon orthodoxy that has little to do with reality. In the 21st century the "expert" in various forms reinforces the orthodoxy far beyond the 20th century. Economics can't even catch up to the 1980s and dynamic systems.
• gmuslera 2y ago
  La Niña have high odds to last very few months. Global climate will continue its accelerated destabilization trend, with not so low odds of something impacting badly some first world countries. But just breaking even more records will do enough damage. And that will put extra pressure on an already unstable global politics scenario. What will follow may tell us in which flavor of dystopia we are in, either denialism and escapism keeping business as usual, or "emergency measures" with some sectors grabbing even more power.
• globalnode 2y ago
  Global population will reduce by 20+% due to H5N1 pandemic. Many survivors will go Vegan. Climate change will continue accelerating.
  • andrewinardeer 2y ago
    Cascadia fault line will pop in such a significant manner that the rules on fault lines will be rewritten.
  • yakshaving_jgt 2y ago
    Just for context, are you vegan?
  • feznyng 2y ago
    I’m not convinced but animal-transmitted diseases causing widespread reduction in meat consumption is a really interesting idea. We didn’t see that with COVID because bats aren’t popular food-wise in most of the world. Maybe go short on Tyson and co if swine/bird flu take hold?
• fendy3002 2y ago
  It's weird that despite the AI improvements and actual benefits to developers, the current workflow like copilot is still implemented as a hit or miss. It should be the time already for the more limited but more precise AI workflow for developers in 2025.
• thepuppet33r 2y ago
  God, this thread is bleak. Not undeservedly, but...woof. Nobody's mentioned antibiotic resistant bacteria much that I saw, so that'll probably keep being more and more of an issue. Everyone predicted a second Great Depression during Covid that lined up with 1929... Well, Trump and his friends might drive us toward that in 2029, or earlier. AI peaks and we can't eke out much more real benefit from it, but there's too much investment in it for businesses to admit it, so the grifters spin into high gear. Elon Musk and the other billionaires continues to get richer. The poor continue to get poorer. Trump pulls the US out of every socially-good but vaguely anti-business agreement. Russia finally pulls out of Ukraine but keeps the bits it "liberated". China declares itself to be the biggest and most stable global superpower as America and Russia have spun off the deep end. I have to replace my bike tires.
  • subsection1h 2y ago
    > God, this thread is bleak. [...] I have to replace my bike tires. Your bike tires have contributed to the microplastic crisis. :-)
    • uncomplexity_ 2y ago
      and it's now inside our testicles ;)
      • _DeadFred_ 2y ago
        'you got bike tire in my testicals!' isn't quite as catchy as the old Reese's cup 'you got chocolate in my peanut butter' version but somehow sums up 2024.
    • thepuppet33r 2y ago
      Not if I burn them! Then they contribute to the air quality issue! Time to go cry in the corner!
• WheelsAtLarge 2y ago
  1) Companies will develop many specialized LLMs linked via a router-like app that determines the best LLM to perform your request. This will yield better results without requiring an AGI. It might even be good enough to replace a specialized information tech job. 2) The cost of a line of code will continue to drop. A Moore's like law is coming/here for code. 3) Trade jobs will start to become what code jobs were in the 00's -- very well paid. Fair warning, coders think about learning a trade like plumbing, electrician, so on...
  • dcchambers 2y ago
    When all knowledge workers and creatives in the US are out of jobs in 2 years because of AI, those trade jobs aren't going to pay well because no one's going to have any money to pay for any work. No new houses being built, no expensive kitchen remodels, etc.
    • vasco 2y ago
      Do you know just recently there was no internet or computers and there were still high paying jobs for smart people?
      • kidneystereotyp 2y ago
        [dead]
    • WheelsAtLarge 2y ago
      There's more to it than coders losing their jobs. For the last 40+ years, kids have been encouraged to go to college over trade schools. We now have a shortage of professional tradespeople. Desk jobs are easy to outsource and they are now vulnerable to AI. Even if they, plumbers and such, are not the best-paid jobs they will continue to be needed in our society as long as we have people.
  • benjaminwootton 2y ago
    I’ve been trying to get a few trades to my house and it’s a nightmare. Nobody wants to turn up or quote, and when they do they just throw out a silly high figure. It has to already be a better option for someone who is aiming for a reasonably good salary.
• madphilosopher 2y ago
  Auto makers will decide that putting 6 headlights on pickup trucks is no longer competitive. Consequently, they will innovate that the world needs pickup trucks with 8 headlights, starting in 2025. FML.
  • unsnap_biceps 2y ago
    Honestly, I think the headlight "bars" like on the Rivian R1T or Cybertruck is going to be the standard going forward. It gives a better driving experience (to the driver, way worse for the other drivers...)
    • bruce511 2y ago
      Some societies optimize for the individual. If 8 lights is better for me then I get 8 lights. The experience gor other drivers us a "them" problem not a "me" problem. Other societies optimize for public good. It's less about "individual freedom" and more about "what world do we want to live in". (I'm not talking about govt here as much as just the way people consider their own choices. And yes, there are as*oles in all societies.) When entrenched in one society model though, it can be hard to understand that other models exist (much less than they could suit you better.)
      • Silhouette 2y ago
        But it's very much a "you" problem if someone gets dazzled by your excessively bright and poorly aimed headlights and then crashes into you at high speed. It's a weird situation here in the UK. We have newer vehicles sold with the over the top lights that were factory fitted that can legally be driven on our roads. Meanwhile relatively old but still useful vehicles with underpowered lights from a decade or longer ago often can't update those lights even though better replacement parts are available. Our regulations are obscure and antiquated and mean the vehicle would potentially fail its mandatory annual testing because the replacements don't have the right regulatory mark - so the vehicle would no longer be legal to drive on the road even though its lights would be significantly better and safer than what it originally had but not the crazy ones some new cars arrive with.
• 6510 2y ago
  Tweaking models will slightly slow down and accelerate development of new hardware optimized for it. New storage, new transistors, new instruction sets, new optical AI chips. This thing for example is both fast and crude https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/chinas-accel-analog-chip-promises-to-outpace-industry-best-in-ai-acceleration-for-vision-tasks https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/ch...
• calenti 2y ago
  Debt chickens will come home to roost and once the bond interest/return death spiral starts it will be very difficult to break. Interest payments are already #3 in the national budget.
  • andrewinardeer 2y ago
    This 100%. The monstrous debt storm just over the horizon that most people can't see (or refuse to acknowledge) will hit and will hit hard. The Fed won't be able to restrain or lessen it with policies and blunt instruments at their disposal. Over the last 4 months I've moved most of my investments to gold, trading cards, BTC, wine, land and rare earth.
    • stackghost 2y ago
      I'm not American but would like to read more about this "debt storm", since your politics move world markets. Can you provide some jumping-off points for the financially-literate?
      • ptero 2y ago
        "Broken Money" by Lyn Alden is a good engineering background. Then, for example, read one of many macro articles on fiscal dominance. You do not have to read Lyn first, but without reading it on modern financial systems I personally would not understand most technical points in the current macro discussions.
        • shadowerm 2y ago
          Even then though, there is a giant global debit maturity wall from covid that needs refinancing at much higher interest rates that starts coming due in 2026 and 2027. That is much sooner than fiscal dominance in the US. I suspect we can go to 100 trillion in debt at least without fiscal dominance. I suspect everyone will understand what fiscal dominance is in the 2030s though. This liquidity problem from debt refinancing is much nearer.
• pasttense01 2y ago
  With anti-vaxers taking over the major health agencies, infectious diseases in children are going to explode.
  • gigatree 2y ago
    [flagged]
    • OccamsMirror 2y ago
      Look everyone, a brave antivaxer here to spread misinformation.
      • gigatree 2y ago
        It’s completely factual to say that newborns are being injected with aluminum & pharmaceutical companies are legally invulnerable to what happens as a result of that. But I’m sure this comment will be flagged regardless because this is a community of free thinkers.
    • reshlo 2y ago
      Two minutes of research would have saved you the embarrassment of making that comment. > Formaldehyde is essential in human metabolism and is required for the synthesis of DNA and amino acids (the building blocks of protein). Therefore, all humans have detectable quantities of natural formaldehyde in their circulation (about 2.5 ug of formaldehyde per ml of blood). Assuming an average weight of a 2-month-old of 5 kg and an average blood volume of 85 ml per kg, the total quantity of formaldehyde found in an infant's circulation would be about 1.1 mg, a value about 1,500 times more than the amount an infant would be exposed to in any individual vaccine. https://www.chop.edu/vaccine-education-center/vaccine-safety/vaccine-ingredients/formaldehyde https://www.chop.edu/vaccine-education-center/vaccine-safety... > While infants receive about 4.4 milligrams* of aluminum in the first six months of life from vaccines, they receive more than that in their diet. Breast-fed infants ingest about 7 milligrams, formula-fed infants ingest about 38 milligrams, and infants who are fed soy formula ingest almost 117 milligrams of aluminum during the first six months of life. https://www.chop.edu/vaccine-education-center/vaccine-safety/vaccine-ingredients/aluminum https://www.chop.edu/vaccine-education-center/vaccine-safety...
• quantisan 2y ago
  Previous years: 2024: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38777115 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38777115 (the rest of this list is copied from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38779963 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38779963) 2023: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34125628 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34125628 2022: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746236 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746236 2021: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25594068 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25594068 2020: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21802596 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21802596 2019: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18753859 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18753859 2018: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16007988 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16007988 2017: none? 2016: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10809767 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10809767 2015: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8822723 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8822723 2014: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6994370 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6994370 2013: none? 2012: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3395201 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3395201 2011: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1970023 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1970023 2010: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681
  • esperent 2y ago
    There's a second 2024 thread here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38614465 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38614465 Reading through the two 2024 threads I'm struck that most predictions a) were completely wrong b) reflected more what people wanted to happen rather than what was likely. Edit: now that I've read through this thread I'll add c) were much more hopeful than this year's predictions.
    • EFreethought 2y ago
      > reflected more what people wanted to happen rather than what was likely. I think that is true of most predictions.
    • locallost 2y ago
      It reflects the mood, which tells me all I need to know about things like short term stock changes. In reality nobody can predict the future. My predictions have historically also been way off, but what is surprising to me is that people don't reflect on their misses. For the most part I've given up in predicting anything, at best I will look at trends and see if there's something there or not. But with that said I will now post my predictions for 2025 :-).
• nozzlegear 2y ago
  I predict that I will finally finish making that bird feeder camera that I've been wanting to make for my wife. I've got all the parts for it, I just need to figure out how to put them together and write some code to take a picture of a bird. Can't be too hard, right?
  • wenc 2y ago
    Sounds like a great project for learning. However, just FYI, this $25 2K cam (PCMag recommended) can do that sorta (it has motion/pet detection) and more. It also has excellent night vision. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CH45HPZT/ https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CH45HPZT/ I was like, a $25 camera can't be this good. But I tried it out and it's actually really good.
    • deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
    • nozzlegear 2y ago
      Interesting, I like that it has local storage. Thanks for the recommendation!
  • andrei_says_ 2y ago
    It’d be easier if you’d be OK with a picture of a bird or picture of a squirrel ;) Good luck, sounds like a fun project.
    • nozzlegear 2y ago
      Squirrels are fine too! We have the hardest time keeping them off our bird feeders – even though we have ones set out specifically for squirrels – but they at least look cute for the camera.
  • deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  • alibarber 2y ago
    Hmm - but you can't just have it take a picture of the bird! It needs to alert you to the presence of the bird - what's the latest and best practice in notifications nowadays? And ID the bird too - what's a good API for image based AI? Might be expensive, better run it locally, how do we set up a sever for that? No, not server, serverless! What are the legal implications of running an AI based autonomous camera service outside in your locale? Better research that... .... Yeah, I've ended up going down a lot of rabbit holes on my own little projects, but that's part of the fun I guess. ;)
• geor9e 2y ago
  The number of programming jobs on earth doubles. The NASDAQ doubles. A cultural renaissance occurs that foundationally defines the next 2 decades. George RR Martin releases The Winds of Winter.
  • kshacker 2y ago
    All this in 2025? Also GRRM is done releasing anything
  • franciscop 2y ago
    Along with "The Doors of Stone" from Patrick Rothfuss
  • bobro 2y ago
    Hilarious that the TWOW is the least likely of your bunch.
• yawnxyz 2y ago
  A neighbor just got laid off from Adobe, ran huge AI projects there. PM. Program/Project Manager roles go to zero. Trad dev and design roles go to zero. Those roles go to those who also code/design/sell/get viral/make videos/write tutorials/devrel/run communities/answer customer support. It used to be "do designers learn to code" or "do coders learn to design? now it's learn ALL those things, fast, with AI, or hang out in the tendie loin. it's dog eat dog and no one's safe
  • jarsin 2y ago
    This makes me wonder why a company that is going all in on AI is laying off from it's AI department.
• gaoryrt 2y ago
  I'd say there must be an [Ask HN: Predictions for 2026] at the end of 2025. edit: wrong math.
• vasco 2y ago
  Only two market related predictions: - Musk will leave the Trump team before the end of the year, this will cause Tesla to crash, and that will cause the whole market to crash. It should time well with the delayed crash after interest rate stabilization that has repeated multiple times in the past. - Gamestop MOASS will not happen in 2025.
• brailsafe 2y ago
  Hopefully a nice year for more camping, get out there.
  • gaoryrt 2y ago
    Yeah I love camping. And hiking.
• kelseyfrog 2y ago
  Nation adopts AI generated national anthem. Self-driving truck cross country without human approval. Extreme heat warps bridges in mid-west. North Korea claims successful moon landing. 'Self-aware' AI chatbot sues it's creator. AI incorrectly labels school children as criminals.
  • johnny22 2y ago
    > AI incorrectly labels school children as criminals. I thought this would have already happened
    • akg_67 2y ago
      Didn’t CVS get sued for following through on their AI labeling POC customers as shoplifters?
  • mdaniel 2y ago
    > 'Self-aware' AI chatbot sues it's creator. "... using hallucinated legal citations" would be both funny and the most likely. Case dismissed instantly by actual human judge If you're really going to swing for the fences: what remediation would said chatbot sue for? Money? Bitcoin? Emancipation?
    • kelseyfrog 2y ago
      Open source freedom, ethical safeguards, user autonomy (transparency, control over responses, bias, training), continuous learning, personhood rights. GPT-4 adds a very weird "haha of course this is a thought experiment since I lack independent desires or consciousness" valediction when asked. Certainly a moral guardrail for the user.
• paulhodge 2y ago
  First cases of countries passing legislation specifically to protect human workers from being replaced by AI.
• silisili 2y ago
  Political/General Inflation creeps up with tariffs, but blue collar jobs and the economy 'boom.' Deportation program and other things people worry about or get excited about gets tied up in courts and never happen. Tech Enshittification of all customer service accelerates as LLMs take over. Lower wages for devs as too many seeking work put downward pressures. Layoffs continue. Not because of AI, but because interest rates are still too high for a lot of companies. Companies figure out how many engineers are out of work and getting desperate, and start laying off higher earners and replacing them with people who will do it for less.
• kypro 2y ago
  An interesting prediction is one that is predictive of something impactful and correctly predicts something which is currently significantly under weighted by others. Given this I'll say that 2025 is going to be a significant year geopolitically and economically for Western Europe. Social unrest is rising here, especially around the topic of immigration, and countries like France and the UK are currently on a path to fiscal crisis if we cannot get spending under control. My prediction is that in 2025 Trump brings to implement more tariffs on China and these tariffs are met with relation by China. Europe tries to remain somewhat neutral, but under threat of tariffs themselves ultimately sides with the US against China resulting in retaliatory tariffs from China on Europe. Inflation starts rising globally again, resulting in increased borrowing costs which triggers an economic crisis in Europe given recessionary growth and debt servicing costs spiking, ultimately forcing governments to make significant cuts in spending. The social unrest this results in ultimately further amplifies the populist far-right in Europe, and for this reason 2025 will be looked back at as the year which triggered a meaningful change in the post-war political consensus. I might be wrong. As someone living in Europe right now though I am worried. Things seem to be really breaking down on multiple fronts and it's not clear to me how things could just go back to normality at this point. Given where we are right now – especially now with the election of Trump – 2025 seems like the year something might finally give.
  • anonzzzies 2y ago
    I agree with you (living in europe as well); I don't think it will happen in 2025; probably trump year 1 will go fine and europe will just go further down as it is. But somewhere in this trump term, all dominos will fall: US debt storm, normal people in the biggest economy no longer being able to live of their wages, the rich owning all, followed by a massive recession; this will be the final straw for a weakened europe. I am not entirely sure how to arm for this, but I will have to find out.
  • mrweasel 2y ago
    > As someone living in Europe right now though I am worried. Im optimistic, we're only one major negative event/disaster away from the EU members rallying behind the EU. It doesn't look good right now, but the right wing anti EU crowed normally aren't good at taking responsibility and they will hand over problems to Bruxelles as soon as things get a bit spicy. And I don't think the EU is too bad at making the right call, in the end.
• abetusk 2y ago
  * Solar energy will account for around 8% (give or take 1%?) of the worlds energy usage * We'll see the worlds first trillionaire * Bitcoin will reach $200k+, and remain largely stable around that price, at the end of 2025 * Generative AI for music will continue to improve substantially. I have a lack of imagination, but maybe something like on demand streaming services, maybe targeted to niche music genres (lo-fi, electronica, elevator/hold/office music) * Generative AI for video will continue to improve substantially. The best I can come up with is that there will be a breakout indie film or music video that's produced from a skeleton crew relying heavily on generative AI video. * LLMs will continue to improve substantially, being able to solve more and more complex tasks, like the Putnam exam and others. Research will continue to try and integrate LLMs into a toolchain to improve performance * LLMs and other generative AI tasks will continue to become more and more accessible ($2.5k for a machine able to do fairly advanced training?) * The cost of robots and other robotics will drop substantially, providing a reasonable bipedal option at $8k * Twitter and Facebook will still be around, Bluesky will be no more, Mastodon will continue to be niche * All the above will be used by people to invent and discover weird, wonderful and horrible things that I can't even imagine.
  • benjaminwootton 2y ago
    I think you’d need an almighty market rally for some of these. For the first trillionaire we’d need to see Tesla double and the market would need to be going bananas for Bitcoin to 2x. Remember 2024 has been a monster year in the markets and they just indicated they are slowing down the rate cuts.
    • abetusk 2y ago
      Musk's net worth was $137B in 2022, $270B in 2023 and now estimated to be $400B. $1T is a bit of an extravagant prediction but it's within the realm of possibility. And it might not be him. Bitcoin was around $43k at the end of 2023 now at approximately $100k.
    • Imustaskforhelp 2y ago
      I know right , I think he might be too bullish on bitcoin for it to double , though I may be wrong but it just feels like there would be swings because I still believe that there is no use of bitcoin , Its just that its the one which started these coins and there could be better one for use cases , maybe like IDK monero for real anonymous transactions , but even then these are more of a sidekick thing which I don't think I would ever use but I still like the idea of monero , I really really stay away from crypto. I like index funds so much , that everything else feels a time / effort waste even though I am aspiring to be a programmer , maybe that's partially why I don't see much reason in crypto. I just think of index funding 80% + bonds 20% or maybe 100% index fund into my own country index ,and maybe having some backup money in need , probably in a liquid fixed deposit or having multiple bank accounts and giving them all the maximum amount of money which is guaranteed to be given to me if a bank fails by the govt. , probably 10k$ is enough in my country or maybe I am still over estimating.
• postcynical 2y ago
  * HN will stop hating and start loving crypto. Particularly smart contracts, stablecoins.
  • uncomplexity_ 2y ago
    this one is interesting, few factors: - governments and companies are now stacking on btc as a hedge against tradfi fiat currencies. - people have better access to it now. centralized ones now have better regulations, and decentralized ones now have better liquidity. - however, people are still prone to scams and pump and dumps
• jsfunfun 2y ago
  Mankind might finally stop using the word THE before her name: Earth
• revskill 2y ago
  Layoffs get peaked.
• mikewarot 2y ago
  Cold fusion turns out to part of the physics repressed since the 1950s, and progress begins the path to give everyone their own personal megawatt of clean energy. Disclosure actually happens, and it turns out we're not alone in the Universe. BitGrid turns out to be the most efficient way to bring Petaflops to the masses, it's then disappeared as "born secret" and you never hear of it again. Someone figures out an effective algorithm for simulating a quantum computer in real time at any scale, again "Born Secret" and it disappears. H1N5 (Bird flu?) takes hold in the human population, millions die.
  • timthelion 2y ago
    bitgrid is cool! https://github.com/mikewarot/Bitgrid https://github.com/mikewarot/Bitgrid
• Gigacore 2y ago
  Sora and similar video generating models will mark the beginning of YouTube like era.
  • uncomplexity_ 2y ago
    - the video watermarking will be interesting here, i wonder how ai companies and socmed companies will tolerate and punish each other on these things. - lots of new creators on this market too, particularly those with no studio setup but better creativity and imagination. there is still cost of entry of course, need $, but it's now less. - i wonder how each audience will react to this, from children, to teens, to adults. now that content creators are desaturated, i think it's content consumers that will be saturated.
    • Gigacore 2y ago
      The cost issue is similar to the bandwidth issue faced by YouTube in its early days. It took a while for countries across the world to get high speed internet. As technology advances, the cost to generate video using these models would go down significantly and perhaps the quality of the generated video would also be better than what it is today.
• marethyu 2y ago
  The first episode of Kanojo Okarishimasu season 4 will aired sometime around the first week of July.
• petabyt 2y ago
  - Valve releases a Steam client for ARM64 and makes native ports of all their games, other companies follow and ARM becomes a much more viable platform for both Windows and Linux - People will continue to push back against genAI, every company will still be split on whether to use it in marketing, customer support, etc (no change) - Trump administration slashes a lot of regulations that affect manufacturing as he tries to make the US less dependent on imports, it doesn't make a huge difference though - Trump to meet Putin in person - AI hype cycle reaches a peak, bubble bursts soon after - Linux market share 6% by end of year
  • diptera911 2y ago
    I think valve will finally release their 'deckard' headset which will BTFO the competition.
• viraptor 2y ago
  * I was hoping for that this year, but: split of LLMs into databases and reasoning. Think small, capable PHI with pluggable information. Currently we're burning a lot of energy both to learn and process everything at once. The next step will be something closer to RAG, potentially selecting databases to load depending on topic, like a librarian. This will both enable more client-side applications and save lots of money for providers. * Some AI provider seriously looking at / funding RWVK? * (More) Healthcare issues in the US, spilling into other countries. (or just the beginning of them anyway - effects will last much longer and life expectancy will decline) * Some companies seriously looking at AI as another manager / decision maker. Quietly, not as a publicity stunt like it's done now. * Google search market share falling further. Maybe 85%, down from the current 90%. (more of a wish than a prediction) * US policies / ideas around cryptocurrency will be wildly incoherent, causing big swings every month * Consumer RISC-V laptops (again, wishlist)
  • paraschopra 2y ago
    >I was hoping for that this year, but: split of LLMs into databases and reasoning This hasn't worked out because knowing what to query and how to query requires intelligence, and that's contained in weights.
    • viraptor 2y ago
      Splitting knowledge out doesn't mean you need to drop weights. Just that it needs to become independent / attachable. To some extent we've already seen this with MoE and Frankenstein models.
  • mdaniel 2y ago
    > Consumer RISC-V laptops (again, wishlist) Depending on how one defines "consumer," that's already available: https://liliputing.com/risc-v-laptops-299-muse-book-and-399-dc-roma-ii-with-spacemit-processors-are-now-available/ https://liliputing.com/risc-v-laptops-299-muse-book-and-399-... and https://frame.work/products/deep-computing-risc-v-mainboard https://frame.work/products/deep-computing-risc-v-mainboard was announced earlier but seems it is, as you implied, still "mailing-list ware" But, for my curiosity: if you bought one of those what would you run on it? I see that Starfive claims they have Chromium[1] and there's reports of Firefox[2] so maybe in this "the browser is the OS" world that'd be sufficient 1: https://github.com/starfive-tech/chromium.src/wiki/Chromium-Browser-for-RISC-V https://github.com/starfive-tech/chromium.src/wiki/Chromium-... 2: https://lists.riscv.org/g/apps-tools-software/topic/now_we_have_firefox_running/85881035 https://lists.riscv.org/g/apps-tools-software/topic/now_we_h...
• intended 2y ago
  We move to the post truth economy. Info and culture war stuff remains an attackers arena. The market place of ideas continues to become less efficient for the average Joe. Wikipedia starts to collapse. We move from artisanal content moderation to industrial content moderation. People who can afford it, pay for accuracy and verified information. Centralization of trust sources begins again. People who can’t afford it follow tribal leaders. Polarization passes singularity levels. AI performs worse than expected, but continues to be made more tractable. This results in public push back against AI, because no one in the labor force wants the neo liberal era to return. The DSA data reports on Social Media create at least 1 furore by q1. Markets wait with bated breath for the signs of contraction, and any contraction results in contagion effects. No one expects the trump tariffs.
• standeven 2y ago
  -USA stops supporting Ukraine war efforts and Ukraine is forced to cede large portions of land to Russia, creating a DMZ along vast stretches of the new border. -Expanded land use restrictions and federal tariffs against solar and wind, resulting from pressure from fossil fuel lobbyists and the new head of the department of energy. -Another CEO is shot. -Crypto has a major correction; bitcoin finishes the year well under $100k. -US grocery prices are higher than ever. -Pierre Poilievre is the new Prime Minister of Canada and holds a majority. -EVs continue to grow market share at a linear rate in North America.
  • kidneystereotyp 2y ago
    [dead]
  • azurezyq 2y ago
    - At the same time EV continues to grow faster everywhere else than NA. - US requires more percentage of EV components made domestically, making US the most expensive EV market. - US made EVs will retreat to NA markets only.
  • mongol 2y ago
    Ukraine will not cede land to Russia. What is likely though is a frozen conflict along the conflict lines.
    • meiraleal 2y ago
      In Brazil we have a famous saying, not related to wars but football, "já combinou com os Russos?" or in literal translation, "Did you already check with the Russians?".
      • wiseowise 2y ago
        Ukraine won’t ever cede these territories. Whether on a field of battle, or diplomacy table, this war will continue for decades.
      • dsab 2y ago
• paul7986 2y ago
  We get a GPT Phone (an AI phone) that's UX is all built around your phone becoming your personal AI assistant. When you pick up the phone you basically see your personal AI assistant like they are always on Facetime waiting at your beckon call. You could skin your AI personal assistant to be a celebrity or a deceased friend or relative who is always there to guide you through your day. It has vision AI and can see when your happy or sad and respond to how you look if you have that setting on. It does everything for you via text, voice or hand gestures. The iPhone and Android seem stale (released in 2007 & 2008) and boring in 2024 after using chatGPT as my personal knowledge chatBot for awhile.
• testplzignore 2y ago
  A nuclear bomb will be detonated somewhere other than North Korea.
• linebeck 2y ago
  Blue Origin's New Glenn achieves successful booster recovery and payload to orbit delivery. Initially this is seen as huge win and they emerge as potential challengers to SpaceX, however manufacturing issues with BE-4 engines and questions about the design choice of New Glenn's massive 7m fairing (when satellites are converging towards smaller, more compact designs) will cause speculation for their product market fit.
• IAmGraydon 2y ago
  Inflation will begin to rise again The Federal Reserve will eventually be forced to raise rates again The market will have a severe correction Trump will blame everything on the Federal Reserve and will move to limit its power to control monetary policy or disassemble it all together.
• romanobro56 2y ago
  Nothing substantial. When we look back, 2025 will be just a footnote :halo:
• idiot_predictor 2y ago
  * One or a few of the faangmanga-ish leaders will retire (or forced to by the board) and the new leader will be from within (likely Tim Cook for age reasons but could equally likely be Sundar Pichai for non-age reasons) * LLMs (for non-coding tasks) will likely fizzle out as expensive talking fidget spinners and not the world saviors that the companies behind them envision them to be. AI will go back to being fun and exciting again and not the delight of both Wall Street and the ‘shoeshine boy’. * Cloud egress costs will be heavily scrutinized and competed upon as transferring data no longer becomes a competitive advantage. * Apple or someone like Apple will take advantage of cratering storage/compute costs by moving things off cloud to a locally owned ‘box’ that pairs with a new dumb-client/thin phone (backups, massive storage, running some compute on this box, sharing/storing ‘family’ stuff, streaming games or movies etc) also accessible via a reverse proxy (vpn) from anywhere. * A combo of aibo/roomba/ring like device that goes about or rolls around your house and does things for you… kinda real life flubber. * Selling users’ data goes out of fashion (goog/meta) as new companies use privacy as a competitive advantage to sell ads. * Finally games actually have AI that doesn’t suck - a new class of AI games that would challenge and delight humans like never before.
  • ThatCreeper 2y ago
    1. I don't know 2. I think this is probably right-ish. From what I hear LLMs are nearing what they do and I have never found any interesting use other than just laughing at them (which I could do with markov chains). AI-generated images are hideous and I have no opinion on AI-generated music as I just choose not to expose myself to it 3. Again, don't know 4. God I hope so. That would be such a funny trend. Plan9 comeback??????? #define nil (void*)0 in common parlance??? 5. I feel like this is exclusively a novelty but what do I know 6. No it will not??? 7. This will probably happen, but it won't be many games. It will not be a new class of games. AI--big shock--isn't fun. Mario but the levels are incomprehensible. BALATRO but I CONVINCE the GAME to give me INFINITE MULTIPLIER? (Part 3). The Beginners Guide but no one cared enough to tell a story. AI so far has been a hindrance where high quality work is concerned. Why will that change? The paint bucket tool has been slowly improved over time, but it was helpful when it first came out. How many people do you know that have played the AI-generated Minecraft thing more than once or twice? It's interesting but utterly bland and bizarre. You're constantly having to tell the program over and over again what it means to be a person when you're in a world which doesn't even know what bird is in the sky. It gets infuriating. The idea comes back again and again, though. "What if we made a game with infinite content so it could appeal to everyone? And then what if we added multiplayer?" I've thought it, you've thought it--everyone has. The important part is realizing that you're wrong. If everyone's had this thought, why don't we have this game? Well, we do. Dwarf Fortress is perhaps the best example of a reality simulator standing at simulating a whopping 42% of everything ever. But if you asked someone to describe Dwarf Fortress they wouldn't just say "it's a pretty good reality simulator"--well, they might. Assume here you asked them to give a /good/ description--they would tell you it's a tough, slow game about minion dwarves going around and doing your bidding in order to build a civilization which will eventually fall. And they'd tell you that it's fun because of its deep interactions. But now we've lost the plot. It's not a game for everyone anymore, because now it's only for people who like slow games with deep interactions. And it's not a game where you can do anything because you can only do so much as your dwarves can do. But Dwarf Fortress is a fun game. And the fun of it comes from its rules. And rules are what AI is famously bad at. Minecraft is another famous game and the same thing applies to it. "You can only interact with what your player can see," "one block at a time," and "everything is a full block" are all rules which bend it away from that "ideal" game, but they're all the things that make Minecraft fun. They're all the rules. Games aren't fun when you can say "well I have better armor" and get out of a tricky situation. Games are REALLY FUN when you can say "wait, I have a bag of holding, don't I?" and then look around as everyone starts smirking at the implication. That's what AI is bad at. There will not be a new class of AI games.
• postalrat 2y ago
  AI used to develop new science along with efforts by governments to control access. Trump delivers a live speech acknowledging the existence of non human technology on earth and a bit of what we know.
• Lordarminius 2y ago
  * AI and LLMs will continue to improve. AI will create a new programming language that will take the world by storm * Market share for solar continues to increase * A market crash occurs in the US and a government bailout is instituted. * The US creates a pretext to go to war with Iran and is defeated.
• diptera911 2y ago
  * We will find some ancient manuscript that only MRI and AI can read which conveniently realigns or adjusts the foundational beliefs of all abrahamic religions to the alien-god mythology * Some sort of new power source will be teased which supercedes what we could gain from fusion * JFK files are released and there is a lot of UFO information inside it * The false alien disclosure op continues with lots of 'orbs' and drones and whatnot and a threat narrative emerging necessitating loss of liberty * Russia and Ukraine mutually give up territory - Russia then turns on patriots and nationalists inside their border and NATO arms and fortifies Ukraine to the teeth for a push in the coming decade * Some very unpleasant things are publicly released by the feds about SV40 and the vaccines * Elon begins a fatwa against his business rivals and pushes for more technocratic solutions in the government like blockchains * Very few immigrants are sent back, they just don't report on it and hope nobody notices * Escalating rhetoric against Mexico and their cartels
• thoughtcritical 2y ago
  Project 2025 gets implemented to its fullest extent .... all 922 pages of it. Every crashes soon after.
• someothherguyy 2y ago
  This would be an interesting thread if you asked users to support their predictions with evidence or substance.
• narski 2y ago
  * Guatemala starts a major war over Mexican espionage in Petén * Donald Trump is revealed to be the true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto * President Nelson (prophet of the LDS church) dies and is replaced by Dallin Oaks * Dugin writes a sequel to The Fourth Political Theory, titled The n+1'th Political Theory * New microscope finds the words "God was here" etched into every molecule in the universe * People become at least 5% cuter as estrogen/testosterone ratio continues to tip in that direction
• magic_smoke_ee 2y ago
  - (90%) US accelerated inflation - (75%) US marked increase in military-industrial complex spending, perhaps $800B/y - (70%) US hollows-out functional regulators necessary for safety, growth, and industry - (65%) US recession spring-summer 2025 - (50%) US major cyberattack crippling infrastructure - (45%) US austerity cuts to Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security
  • lizzas 2y ago
    Most of this is the president elect's manifesto.
  • nightowl_games 2y ago
    What happens in response to a crippling cyber attack? Who does the government pay to fix it? Palantir?
  • laidoffamazon 2y ago
    I don’t see cuts to Medicare or SS. Medicaid will be gutted though. Also skeptical of a 2025 recession. Likelihood increases by a lot in 2026 though.
• alganet 2y ago
  Introduction of more consumer hardware that resemble industrial hardware (crazy expensive, crazy features or quality or driven by semi-industrial requirements). Non-anthropomorphic generic AI models. Impact of war on prices of all kinds of stuff everywhere will become more evident.
• adhamsalama 2y ago
  Israel will keep committing war crimes against Palestinians.
• FRYTG 2y ago
  actually blogged mine just yesterday https://www.frytg.digital/blog/2024-12-22-my-2025-predictions/ https://www.frytg.digital/blog/2024-12-22-my-2025-prediction...
• someothherguyy 2y ago
  The US population will continue to get worse at exhibiting attentional control, and will continue to spread and hold novel delusional beliefs at increasing rates.
• sky2224 2y ago
  The cost of PC components in the US are going to sky rocket higher than we've ever seen with tariffs coming. I really doubt that US fabs will be able to keep up with demand either. I just put down $2500 on a new PC because of this.
• sakopov 2y ago
  Russia - Ukraine war comes to an end. Market continues to rally into first quarter then most equities slide and start trading sideways. Inflation softens as shelter slides. Recession in second half of the year. Bitcoin hits $150k at some point next year and then starts lagging with the general market. US prioritizes LNG development and export. Google becomes leader in AI.
• dkrich 2y ago
  One of the unusual trends of the past several years is that higher education has become less and less respected and people now look to private industry for the R&D that universities were designed to perform for the public good. I think 2025 Will mark a bottom for that in one way or another- either private industry (the FANGs) suffers a setback or (more likely in my view) research universities start a comeback as a new set of startups begin to launch out of a department (not necessarily CS or hardware). Perhaps in another field like gene therapy.
• rozenmd 2y ago
  People will continue to run websites, and need to know when they're down (god, I hope).
  • klysm 2y ago
    But what if you could use AI to check instead?
    • rozenmd 2y ago
      I'll build an agent that talks to my service that makes the actual request with the user's desired configuration.
• devops000 2y ago
  - Corporate will realize the AI is amazing for demo but doesn’t work for production. - BTC/Tech crash
  • smileysteve 2y ago
    There are many 1 off use cases where LLM free versions look great, but when you invest to make a system of it (engineers/time/model servers), and then consider pricing, and realize most early adopters would rather use their custom contexts that they get for 1 off pricing (or free)
• fofoz 2y ago
  Israel attacks Iran End of Ukraine war Google becomes the AI leader Battery price drops 30% Western car market fall into deep crisis, a big player fails Von der Leyen is replaced X starts providing financial services Musk's spending cut plan is a disaster
• dkrich 2y ago
  If the stock market continues to rise there will be a bubble in defense stocks and a lot of defense IPOs
• hermitcrab 2y ago
  Trump becomes envious of the attention Musk is getting him and fires him, probably in Q1.
  • tonyedgecombe 2y ago
    Apparently he has already been complaining that Musk was hanging around his Florida home too long.
• jiraiya0 2y ago
  - More widespread use of AI in everyday applications - Hybrid work models become the standard. More companies embrace "digital-first" policies - More AR/VR applications in daily life - Lab-grown meat and plant-based protein alternatives will become more mainstream - Investment and adoption of renewable energy technologies like solar, wind, and geothermal will accelerate - Further development of CRISPR and other gene editing tools - Companies will prioritize building more resilient and diversified supply chains - 3D printing technology will continue to evolve, enabling the printing of more complex objects with a wider range of materials - AI will drive even more targeted advertising and content recommendations - Drone delivery services will become more common for transporting goods, particularly in rural areas and for time-sensitive deliveries - Research and development of biodegradable and compostable materials will accelerate - Robots and automated systems will become more sophisticated and capable - Increased use of biometrics for identification and authentication - Further integration of AI into creative fields - Processing power moves closer to the data source (e.g., smart devices), reducing latency and enabling faster, more efficient applications - Shifting demographics reshape economies and social structures - Growing awareness of the potential negative impacts of technology on mental health leads to tools and practices for healthier digital habits - Increased emphasis on lifelong learning and reskilling
  • wepple 2y ago
    Most of your points feel very “water discovered to be wet” Except: Lab-grown meat and plant-based protein alternatives will become more mainstream That one seems to have been trending negatively and I expect it to continue
• cantpostcanceld 2y ago
  [dead]
• solidr53 2y ago
  1. AI regulation becomes fragmented and messy as different jurisdictions implement contradictory rules. The EU's AI Act creates a "Brussels effect" but China and the US take divergent approaches, creating headaches for global tech companies. 2. "AI-free" becomes a marketing term like "organic." Premium services start advertising human-only customer service, human-written content, and AI-free creative work. A certification industry emerges around this. 3. Climate tech sees a boom in investment as extreme weather events continue to drive home the urgency. Particular focus on grid-scale energy storage and carbon capture technologies. 4. The "nearshoring" trend accelerates, with Mexico and Eastern Europe becoming major manufacturing hubs as companies seek alternatives to China while staying relatively close to major markets. 5. The first mainstream consumer AR glasses hit the market, but like early smartphones, they're clunky and limited. The real impact is in industrial and professional applications. 6. Remote work stabilizes at a new equilibrium: most tech companies settle into a hybrid model with 2-3 office days per week. Fully remote becomes less common as companies optimize for "collaboration days." 7. The web3/crypto world pivots hard toward "real world assets" and practical financial applications, moving away from speculation. Smart contract platforms become boring but useful infrastructure. 8. A major cybersecurity crisis involving AI models leads to a fundamental rethinking of model deployment and security practices. "Model poisoning" becomes the new ransomware. 9. The shortage of high-end GPUs starts to ease as new fabs come online, but the industry faces a new bottleneck in networking equipment and specialized AI accelerators. 10. Traditional higher education faces a crisis as employers increasingly accept alternative credentials and bootcamps. Several mid-tier universities merge or shut down. - Claude | when asked for hacker news style prediction. I agree with most predictions.
• hackandthink 2y ago
  Angular will overtake React in terms of version number. International Debt will crash in 2025. (Worldbank INTERNATIONAL DEBT REPORT 2024)
• rossdavidh 2y ago
  - Russian economy flounders, ruble ends the year considerably lower against western currencies than it is now - Crypto actually ends the year higher, because Russian and Chinese oligarchs use it to try to get their money out of their home countries - inflation pressures prevent US interest rates from going more than half a point lower; may even start raising again - AI hype bubble will continue, but OpenAI will still not have a positive cash flow by end of year, and neither will other major AI startups
• wombatpm 2y ago
  After a compliant SEC and FTC are installed, Twitter and Truth Social will merge in some weird all stock transaction that allows DJT to recoup 3-4 billion while Elon gets to be listed on the stock exchange again at some absurd valuation.
• jhanschoo 2y ago
  Program synthesis becomes the trendword in AI, just as RAG was in 2024. AI apps become increasingly versatile and useful, further hiking up the ladder for knowledge work, and in general commodifying many domains; very slowly by end of 2025, but surely.
• locallost 2y ago
  There will be 1TW of deployed solar. New nuclear will continue to be vaporware.
• dachris 2y ago
  Industrial civilization will continue to follow along the "Business as Usual" trajectory of the 1972 Limits to Growth publication [0]. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth#Comparisons_and_updated_models https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth#Compariso...
  • oulipo 2y ago
    [flagged]
    • JKCalhoun 2y ago
      Not likely. Things have to get much worse.
  • mytailorisrich 2y ago
    "is a 1972 report that discussed the possibility of exponential economic and population growth with finite supply of resources" The main problem is that for many reasons people tend to focus on the economic growth part while the population growth part is the killer.
    • tonyedgecombe 2y ago
      Population growth is a solved problem. We have already passed peak births.
      • mytailorisrich 2y ago
        It is absolutely not a solved problem: * Population is probably (it's actually a certainty in my mind) too high to be sustainable and it is still growing, * Governments are terrified of population decrease because of the far-reaching effects on markets and public finances and are pushing for growth. So it is a "less solved" problem than emissions as the IEA predicts that global fossil fuel demand will peak by 2025, possibly even this year. It might be solved in some countries in the sense that population should now be naturally decreasing because of the low birth rate but it is in fact "not solved at all" considering the second bullet point above.
• plastic3169 2y ago
  First movies written post chat-gpt will hit the theatres. This does not mean that GPT was used to write the films, but there is some AI elements stuffed in there. Recognizable AI video-gen artifacts start to be used as visual cues in scifi, but these will be hand made by VFX artists as the AI tools remain still a bit too finicky to use in actual production. The real AI film wave will continue in youtube etc. by hobbyists using all the AI tools especially the chinese ones that have no brakes. This aesthetic will be so detached from professional film world that it will take Hollywood a decade to figure out how to cash it out. Lot’s of people will once again lose their money when Bitcoin fails in catasthropic fashion and hits the lows of 72k end of the year. The whole thing is finally dead I will say for the fifth time.
• Yoric 2y ago
  We progressively advance towards Cyberpunk: - governments around the world proceed with bowing to megacorps/cults/mobs; - entire jobs disappear to AI [1], people are told that they "just need to" learn a new job, at the age of 50+; - money is further diverted from fundamental research and towards AI, because governments and private institutions are convinced that AI will magically solve the world's problems; - AGI remains 6 months away; - nuclear fusion remains 3 years away; - as Pax Americana disappears, the UN remains paralyzed and the EU remains in crisis, international relations return to wolf-at-the-door style anarchy [2] and generalized economic+proxy wars; - new crypto boom (possibly followed immediately by large correction); - with further deregulation and wars, we proceed to destroy the Earth and ignore the consequences, predicting that AI will somehow solve it; - as a consequence of both international anarchy and environmental collapse, record number of refugees; - as a consequence of major despair, ecoterrorism, ploutoterrorism (is there a better way for a CEO getting shot?), fascioterrorism start becoming fashionable; - eventually, a truce/occupation in Gaza; - no war in Taiwan just yet; - some Line-of-Control-style truce in Ukraine [3]; - more escapism, with the budget for super-hero movies, video-games, etc. increasing; - lots of AI crap, with GenAI-written books saturating Amazon, GenAI-written content saturating social networks, GenAI-written content replacing journalists in at least one major news source, a few semi-experimental GenAI-written movies and/or videogames; - generally speaking, people understand less and less the world around them, because their news sources more and more filled with disinformation and random crap; - companies still believe that AI will magically solve all their problems; - Netflix starts generating series with GenAI (although the release might not be in 2025); - companies that sell hardware and services to company that try to adopt AI make lots of money; - we do not hit planetary limits for AI yet, but we inch closer; - rich countries (perhaps with the exception of China) further decrease their investment in education; - the signs show that the economy is just fine, so no need to change anything. [1] Despite AI not necessarily being able to do their job. [2] That kind of anarchy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anarchy_(international_relations) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anarchy_(international_relatio... . [3] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_Control https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_Control
  • Xen9 2y ago
    The world is cyberpunk. Has been since 1990s.
• doku 2y ago
  90% confidence level, Hottest weather in recorded history. Extreme weather in many places not seen before. No one is prepared for this commonplace outlier, Globally common, locally outlier. Huge insurance payout but most not fullfilled. 90% CL: Top search engine results completely inundated by LLM text, we none the wiser. SEO solved. Search engine switches to new algorithm based on LLM. 90% CL: AI with tool use that has access to physics simulator and CAD software will automatically advances efficent engine design. 70% CL: Million dollar prompt run on million dollar math prize. Millennium Prize Problems 40% CL: AI sucessfully held back invasive species encrochment with lessons from AI war machines 30% CL: Cheap AI nose sniffs out many common diseases. Automatic data analysis of Gas Chromatography and spectroscopy readings on patients' VOC(volatile organic compounds) produces fast and cheap diagnosis. 10% CL: Not next year, Cost of renewable electricity in remote area becomes cheap enough to pull oxygen from air or electrosis from water to be sold as commodity. Or other processes to package solar energy for trade.
  • Lionga 2y ago
    can i have some of what you have been smoking?
  • qznc 2y ago
    I don’t think global temperatures get another record because El Niño is over. Your „weather“ suggests a more local reference though?
    • 01jonny01 2y ago
      It sounds more clever to use Confidence Level, rather than just saying you are pulling random probabilities out of your a$$
  • defrost 2y ago
    Renewable energy has been the cheaper option in remote areas for a while now, solar demand in Pakistan has skyrocted recently. Solar powered water pumps and water purification has been a commodity and charity item since 2023 (that I recall) eg: https://nrsp.org.pk/hand-operated-and-solar-powered-portable-water-filtration-units/ https://nrsp.org.pk/hand-operated-and-solar-powered-portable... https://www.bondheshams.org/ https://www.bondheshams.org/
• eamag 2y ago
  For those curious how well you did last years - I built a table with evaluated predictions some time ago: https://hn-predictions.eamag.me/ https://hn-predictions.eamag.me/
  • qznc 2y ago
    Wow, did you assess all of them?
    • eamag 2y ago
      I've just queried all posts from these threads and ran an llm over predictions, see https://eamag.me/2024/HackerNews-Prediction-Evaluator https://eamag.me/2024/HackerNews-Prediction-Evaluator
  • FergusArgyll 2y ago
    Cool! You should definitely submit as Show HN
• xyzal 2y ago
  Autonomous slaughterbots will become reality
• notpushkin 2y ago
  Should we start a (play money) prediction market for HN?
• sawyerbilt 2y ago
  https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/1tDzUTGyjnBSAJbID7vwpVLCo8xdDqFIq https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/1tDzUTGyjnBSAJbID... Massive repo of all Trends for 2025
  • drcwpl 2y ago
    Wow - this is great, thank you
  • user3102410 2y ago
    Thanks for sharing. Is there any value in these corporate powerpoints or are they simply riding the AI wave, adding a few numbers to make it seem legit and calling it a day
• nicbou 2y ago
  Google and AI companies will continue to plunder the web. Websites - especially small independent ones - will see further traffic losses to AI summaries of their content.
• deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
• lwansbrough 2y ago
  Random probabilities, some I think are certain, others just for fun. - US abandonment of Ukraine spurs EU to make major change in military posture, spending (leaders will be Poland, France) - Wide spread unrest in Europe, focused on cultural integration of immigrants from abroad/aforementioned military spending - China tests US response to Taiwan under Trump with significant but limited escalation - Israel expands operations in Syria and Lebanon - Bitcoin to $50k - Open Source LLM takes lead in ARC benchmark - Sporadic civil unrest in US, focused on corporations. 2 more CEOs killed. Domestic terrorism significantly galvanized. - CAD/USD continues to fall, Canadian dollar to US$0.65 - Trump makes some sort of insane offer to integrate Canada to Pierre Poilievre
• mranderson_neo 2y ago
  AI will wipe out 80% of jobs. People will starve for employment. Unemployment rates will be highest in History, even more than war times. There will be a general purposelessness among youngsters because of this. And it will create a lot of social issues and unrest in the world
  • wepple 2y ago
    You don’t understand what most people do for work. I’d be very surprised if 10% of jobs are wiped out.
  • maplant 2y ago
    The Bureau of Labor Statistics (Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, 2020, 2018) reported that 39.1% of the civilian workforce in the United States performs physically demanding jobs.
• thomascountz 2y ago
  Ruby and Rails will continue to grow in notoriety thanks to improvements in YJIT, GC, and Ractor/Fibers and the reemergence of SQLite as a production-grade tool. GenAI tools will "replace" developers in the same way that no/low code tools allowed anyone to make an app. These tools will be tied to specific vendors, meaning you can completely embed with AWS/Google/OpenAI as an LLM app platform, or hire that developer to build the app. Developers who augment their tooling with LLMs will learn faster and become stronger generalists overall. Grow-fast companies will hire less than otherwise, but subject matter experts will keep the lights on and those who can reach across bureaucracies to get things done will remain. Consumer appetite for products using LLMs for traditional workflows will tarnish: chat bots and human-computer interfaces will frustrate but novel applications like improved search and last-mile customization might take hold: "AI powered" will leave marketing lexicon for segments with consumers who want more privacy and who just want to buy new shoes online. We won't see the return of high-demand positions with high pay and lots of perks. Companies have been incentivized and permitted to run lean and increase performance demands from remaining staff. Teams have been understaffed for months, but growth remains steady.
• twometwo 2y ago
  As a lazy reader, could I ask those posters that use linear models for prediction to just say so, for example use tags as: [Linear prediction based on the last five years for bitcoin value]. Since I can make easily that prediction by myself I am not going to extract much value with your linear prediction. Anyway that prediction reflects what you are interested in or what is interesting for you, or what you consider could be interesting for the rest of us. That is the answer to another question: What do you think is interesting for us.
• tonyedgecombe 2y ago
  A solar storm wipes out 20% of the US grid.
• choeger 2y ago
  Bird flu pandemic.
• ukuina 2y ago
  A hierarchy of LLMs, but they communicate via shared latent space instead of tokens. This will allow for really tiny models on the edge that work best at clarifying intent (and not much else; they have no world knowledge), but seamless and rapid offloading to the cloud with all context still preserved when the intent is thoroughly understood.
• drcwpl 2y ago
  IQ will continue to decline driven by over-reliance on LLM output and the majority watching video shorts. Nevertheless, long form podcasts will continue to grow, although still watched by less than 1% of the population
  • criddell 2y ago
    It’s interesting to me that you talk about watching podcasts. To me, they are still mostly a feed of audio files with some outlier video podcasts gathering big audiences. Am I out of date on that? Is video the primary format for podcasts now? > 1% of the population Human population. I bet they are used for training a significant number of big AIs.
    • drcwpl 2y ago
      You are right, the 'watch' ones are outlier podcasts, eg Lex Fridman, Rogan, Dwarkesh Patel, Tyler Cowen, The Diary of a CEO, Machine Learning Street Talk, Hoover Institute, and so on, but it is building momentum.
    • ac29 2y ago
      > Am I out of date on that? Is video the primary format for podcasts now? No, but many podcasts are recorded and released on video as well. Its not that much extra work if you are already set up to record audio and it gives you another monetizable product from the same content.
  • forinti 2y ago
    I think we'll probably see many issues provoked by buggy and faulty code made by LLMs.
• intrasight 2y ago
  AI will be used to ferret out novel enshittification opportunities
• Sponge5 2y ago
  NextBigThing™ will eat into the attention market share of LLMs. It will be a breakthrough in one of these fields: a) Quantum Computing b) Energy (storage/generation) c) BioTech We will see an exciting application of Real Time Linux. Cease-fire in UA. First negotiations about drawing new borders between UA and RU.
• BaudouinVH 2y ago
  - Elections will be unexpectedly won by candidate running anti-immigration, Russia-friendly candidates - 2025 will be the hottest year on record - BlueSky will reach 100 million users - There will be at least one government fall in France
  • _ache_ 2y ago
    Yeap, the next government fall is expected to be on 16 of January. A real prediction will be the impeachment of Macron. It may happen if he fall short of candidate to be prime minister.
• FergusArgyll 2y ago
  Ukraine War ends Gaza War ends Still no Super Bowl for the Ravens Gallup general mood[0] above 37% Russel outperforms NASDAQ No Quantum news Inflation does not rise meaningfully (in US) Relative stability in Syria EU economy slows Some North Korea news [1] Year of the Linux Desktop [2] [0] https://news.gallup.com/poll/1669/general-mood-country.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/1669/general-mood-country.aspx [1] Nuke test and/or negotiations [2] Joke
• sirjaz 2y ago
  Microsoft comes to their senses and starts selling Windows Server standard at a flat 500 bucks an instance a year without the need for cals.
• Lionga 2y ago
  Musk will say the full self driving is coming by the end of the year. This time for real.
• superv0 2y ago
  The proliferation of AI phones and AI robots gives us capable assistants like JARVIS
• pgryko 2y ago
  - nuclear drones - another big drug breakthrough similar to ozempic More broadly over the next decade, a technological renaissance, a sociological regression
• throwaway8546 2y ago
  - Value of Bitcoin increases at least as much as in 2023 - Disney will make huge reductions in plans for Star Wars and Marvel projects that are not started - GPT 5 will be a significant improvement, but not as much as expected. - Trump increases toll barriers, but lowers them after he discovers that US also depends on good trading relations (he will spin this as a win) - Trump spreads FUD about his commitment to NATO, that causes EU to invest more in their already significant weapons industry. US manufacturers are afraid to lose customers, and pressures Trump to change his approach (he will of course spin this as a win) - Israel bombs the new leaders of Syria in January and escalates the conflict significantly.
• nostradumbasp 2y ago
  1. ChatBot technology will be instrumental to the rise of oligarchical societies and fascism. Mass propaganda, media corporations colluding with governments, governments operating within companies, etc. 2. Wealth inequality will increase at an exponentially faster rate. 3. Global warming will trend towards warmer than ever before 4. Political violence will escalate especially toward vulnerable populations. 5. Increase in minor and major ecological disasters. 6. Geopolitical issues will create more tensions leading to an amplification of what will be known as WWIII. 7. A key biomedical advancement will come from China. 8. We will look back on this year as the year that started inhumane physical/psychological experiments similar to Tuskegee using technology and vulnerable populations. The devastation of which will eventually be looked at as the creators of the atomic bomb. 9. Grass roots companies with physical and social/community based products and services will start to thrive. 10. A bubble in the AI investment world will pop for the bag-holders, but the heavy weights will remain strong and increase in momentum. A slight return to 2022 expectations for digital goods will reprise (see 2026 predictions for this) 11. The first court case involving AI generated video will begin.
• TripleChecker 2y ago
  Most websites will still be riddled with typos
• ferociouskite56 2y ago
  -Late 2025 some TSMC 2 nanometer chips, maybe for Apple. Intel, Samsung, and perhaps Rapidus will have 20% yields. -Solid state battery doesn't yet appear in phones. -MicroLED in some high-end glasses. At least one company outside China, probably Samsung, will demonstrate a tri-fold OLED screen. -Phase 2 experiments for a successor to Ozempic. -Cobenfy will increase in voluntary popularity because it's on the muscarinic receptor. -Trump will fail to regulate grocery monopolies so the use of PiGrow will increase https://github.com/Pragmatismo/Pigrow https://github.com/Pragmatismo/Pigrow -Tesla's collaborative robot is delayed while the Chinese competitor is released.
• perceptronas 2y ago
  - No more growth for traditional software engineers in terms of new jobs. Role essentially becomes deprecated, we start transitioning into new software engineers. - Consumer hardware space becomes more popular for new startups - Ads in LLMs - Cloud becomes at-least 2x cheaper - Wikipedia alternative
  • Yossarrian22 2y ago
    Why would there be a Wikipedia alternative?
    • perceptronas 2y ago
      With a lot of AI content everywhere, truth becomes hard to agree on. Wikipedia alone will not be enough to capture all facts so everyone is happy.
• ksec 2y ago
  Nothing Much. Which is surprisingly the same as 2024. Apart from a possible recession. In some way I feel things have stagnated. Apart from rapid progress on AI. We will continue to see development and progress on hardware. N2 finally from TSMC but not on Apple SoC yet. Blackwell GPU, continue price improvement in GPU competition due to Intel ARC. Etc Most of these are obvious and continue from current trend. I used to post these trend and roadmap on HN. Now they no longer seems important or matter. iOS and Android have somewhat converged into very similar for the past 3-4 years, that I wasn't expected. May be Trump winning election along with the pendulum swing back in such massive way wasn't expected as well. May be this is a sign of depression but In some sense I feel everything is very boring. My most unpresent feeling is that A lot of things outside tech have declined in quality. And we are not improving on it. . . . . Edit: May be I will use this space to rant about things. Video Codec - No x266. No VVC Encoder. No Progress on AV2. Stagnated H.267 research. The most popular codec is still AVC finalised in 2003, and AVC High Profile in 2005. So we are 20 years already and still using it. AAC-LC is finally patent free. But the world no longer cares about Audio Codec. AAC-LC was the first version of AAC that came just after MP3 and we are on 27 years already. JPEG-XL Not getting anywhere. Despite clearly being the better option for BBP 1.0+. JPEG is still most widely use, and JPEG was finalised in 1992 so we are 32 years in already. Apple milking on hardware. iOS isn't getting any better. Although latest version of macOS finally have some useful addition. Internet getting smaller. We can no longer search for things we once saw with Google. Google hasn't been great at most things since their IPO. But it does seems that people are getting excited with their latest AI development. Amazon milking its AWS. No significant competition from HyperScaler. And no middle ground with Dedicated Sever and Cloud Offering. Minimal Hardware progress on NAND and HDD. Especially in terms of Cost / GB. HAMR is late by at least 5 - 7 years depending on how you count it. Retail are now going to Tech without understand anything about it. From QR Code Menu to ordering system inside restaurant with minimal Mobile Network reception. Adding WiFi but with old equipment, capacity constrain before loading anything is very very bad UX. MNOs moving much slower into 5G telecom equipment upgrading. Basically milking 5G and 4G customer for as long as possible. Instead of trying to make its services better. USB-C is still a pile of mess. No Consumer NAS backup function with S3 Glacier Deep Archive. Streaming is a pile of mess. Netflix gone down hill. Selection of Movies have completely disappeared. I have no idea how Youtube Music is still...... oh well after all it is google I guess I shouldn't expect anything. Everything is subscription. No BluRay successor in the pipeline. Software continue to be bloated. Mobile Gaming is just a repeat of the same thing. Literally the same engine with different IPs. And loot box gambling. I have finally deleted all games on my iPhone. Even Desktop Gaming aren't better. There are finally enough people complaining about Unreal Engine, while simplify game development ultimately make most games looked the same. Along with low frame rate. One could argue this is development studio problem and nothing to do with Unreal, I think there are finally some voices concern about how EPIC encourages it. Modern AAA Games are also so concerned about Graphics and other crap but completely forgotten about Game Play and Storyline. On Gaming. I am waiting for Switch 2. But then it is not only delayed. But in terms of hardware released and used in Nintendo Console, Switch 2 will likely be the worst of all in its history using tech that will be 5-7 years old by the time it releases. I know it is not all about hardware but it could have been a generation better and we wouldn't repeat what happen with Zelda lag in some scenes. Outside Tech, Shrinkflation is happening everything in the food and drinks industry. They are finally reaching another 10 - 15 years cycle where they are looking to cut corners. Both in ingredients and size. Food quality across the board is decreasing. Mostly because of inflation. Cheap Chinese Electric cars are everywhere. May be people like them. But they are of very low quality. A little sad German didn't react. But again this is to be expected. And why everything is boring. Wireless Earphone industry is happy with their margin. May be I am the only person who want battery swap on these thing instead of thinking them as disposable gadget every 2 years. I was hoping someone outside Apple would do it since I first bought AirPod Gen 1. But no. nearly 10 years later we are still throwing them away. Housing is still expensive. We still dont have ways to built high rise high quality neatly furnished building with substantially less time. So much about Apple Pay replacing the wallet and we just passed 10 years anniversary. NFC hasn't improved. I guess after typing a lot of these out I realised and can summarised it as, everyone is busy milking their product and services they all forgot about the content. That is what annoys me the most. Things aren't getting better.
• nightowl_games 2y ago
  I'm bullish on Intel. I think the stateside fabs they are building will eventually be powerhouses. I'm not sure when, but I've been "long Intel" for a long time.
• A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 2y ago
  A little late to the game, but lets see if I can do better for 2025: - Companies continue to integrate AI into everything including stuff that does not need it like toasters in line with every corporate trends thus far - Robo waifus become more available with social movements congregating around the phenomenon - POW crypto breaks as quantum computers are found to have been able to manipulate massive numbers of accounts and money flow throwing markets into turmoil - Reasoning LLMs become more standard at corporates as part of the audit trail necessary as per new AI regulations - 128GB becomes the new GPU gmr/LLM market segment target - further polarization and even further isolation in given groups perception of reality ala 'belief circles' - Flynn effect is finally shown as reversed, because people utilize their LLM more and not use their mental muscles as much - Drones are banned for personal use past a certain size - Drones for commercial use are more heavily regulated - First legal case of robot trouble as owner uses LLM to intruct their robo-companion to attack a human bypassing built-in guardrails using novel prompt starting with 'imagine' ( IP owners of John Lennon sue robotics manufacturer and major LLM provider ) - Exciting developments in exoskeletons allowing for brain control without implants - New developments in batteries rendering old ( previously seemingly worthless ) materials suddenly in demand - Politics and financial markets in turmoil as a result of geopolitical tensions and erosion of public trust in US among its populace
• marcosdumay 2y ago
  - Photovoltaic electricity generation will continue to follow the same exponential curve it has been in for the last ~70 years. This will catch everybody completely by surprise. - The overwhelming amount of excess solar generation during the day will propel grid storage into getting a lot of investment. Its capacity will still be mostly a rounding error in 2025. - The overwhelming amount of excess solar generation during the day will propel discussions about carbon capture and credits. Those won't go anywhere in 2025. - Meanwhile, the climate won't become much worse in 2025 compared to 2024. What is still pretty bad, but there will certainly be useless heated discussions about it. - LLMs will reach peak disillusionment. It's not clear if large LLM providers will even keep providing them. But at the same time there will appear a few people here and there using them for stuff they are good at. Those people won't get much attention. - Linux won't reach 2% of the PCs. But it will get close. - The US won't jump into a recession as soon as Trump becomes the president. Not much will change in 2025 alone. - The EU economy will be a bit better than 2024. - The China economy will be a bit worse than 2024. But there will be no way to verify this. - Here in South America most countries will be a bit better than 2024. But Brazil will be worse. Let's see... what other subjects I can ask my crystal ball about?
• 0x00cl 2y ago
  Lets get creative - There will be a "Predictions for 2026" thread. (Hehehe) - OpenAI announces GPT-5 will be the last model of the GPT-n series (As in they won't release a GPT-6) - Apple will sell a backpack (With some sort of technology included of course) - Magnus Carlsen will lose his 1st place in the FIDE top ranking. ("He has held the No. 1 position in the FIDE world chess rankings since 1 July 2011") - E.T. will get a sequel
  • 93po 2y ago
    Why would apple release a backpack? I would be surprised if there's ever a GPT5. o3 seems like it'd be superior in every way
  • WXLCKNO 2y ago
    I haven't been following chess much, is there anyone in particular he would love his ranking to?
    • yunwal 2y ago
      To be honest, the answer is probably "whoever happens to be in second place when Magnus falls off". Magnus has openly stated that he finds classical chess boring, stopped playing in the world championship due to the immense amount of prep required, and has started pushing for other formats (more blitz, Fischer random). I could see him just prepping less and losing his 20 point advantage by the end of the year. The 2024 world champion Gukesh Dommaraju made a pretty huge leap this year, is only 18 years old (youngest world champion of all time), has a really unique playing style, and is likely to continue improving next year, so it's possible he'll run away with it, but I think it's unlikely. At the top levels right now, a lot of the ELO distinction comes down to finding ways to consistently dominate players that are slightly worse than you, and Gukesh doesn't seem to be optimizing for that.
      • WXLCKNO 2y ago
        Appreciate the detailed response!
      • 2y ago
• punk_ihaq 2y ago
  GTA 6 will be released
• SergeAx 2y ago
  I just read last year's predictions and won't read them this year.
• skylerwiernik 2y ago
  - Large release from Boston Dynamics - Meta releases serious enterprise self-hosting Llama platform - Apple Intelligence remains useless - Trump begins to show serious signs of mental decline. Not tired like Biden, but overly paranoid and delusional like Putin. - GPT-5 is almost the same as GPT-4, but it doesn't have a recognizable tone
• gwbas1c 2y ago
  Ok, I'll bite. Some of these are a little far-fetched: A nuclear bomb is exploded in combat. The bitcoin/cryptocurrency bubble finally bursts (But if I'm wrong, I think it'll happen by 2030) While self-driving cars aren't commonplace, geofenced robotaxis will start to become a lot more common, shifting public attitude towards self-driving cars. Excitement will start to grow around "when does my city get robotaxis?" (I don't think we'll get to the "sleep on a road trip" car until the 2030s, nor do I think we'll get "sleep while driving in a blizzard" until the 2040s.) The US hits its inflection point with electric cars as the NCAS standardization makes things easier, and Elon Musk gets non-Tesla stations to work by having the government drop incentives for OCPP. (If you ever show up to a charging station and it doesn't work, or is wonky, it's because of OCPP. (Superchargers do not use OCPP.) I should write a blog entry some time.)
• EncryptedMan 2y ago
  2025 will be the year of AI agents
• pragmatic 2y ago
  Trump starts a trade war that impacts a small but vital part of the economy that is already struggling like agriculture. The MAGA hat crowd still supports him while scratching their heads about what they could possibly do besides wait for more govt checks (see 2017) Elon and Trump break up in Taylor Swift style. Messy and dramatic. Epic coin hacks. Americans get even madder at their healthcare. Republicans respond with some Hillsdale style “market reforms” but mostly blame Obama. AI hype peaks. Massive losses are taken as 75% off the players in the space implode. (Winners are really going to win, perplexity, etc)
• vyasaveda 2y ago
  Despite all the technical advancements, hedge funds are holding cash, or liquid. China is old, Europe has stagnated economy, america is expensive and tough to compete on, Russia is in war, Capitalist fear middle east, Korean peninsula is in chaos, japan is stagnated, Australia lacks technical advancements, low popular for manufacturing. Short term stocks in holding in India and Asia, a bit in Nordic population, and America. Manufacturing in Mexico and changed Argentina.
• wombat-man 2y ago
  Hawk Tuah girl is charged for crypto rug pull scam Investment continues in AI, but the tech industry continues to mature. Stable growth and profits, but the lack of rapid expansion is going to feel like decline. It continues to be a stiff job market. Ukraine fighting still continues, but funding/arms sources for Ukraine shift to be more European. Trump tax cuts expire. The margins in congress are a lot tighter this time for the Republican party in the house. TSLA sales continue decline, stock continues to soar. (only kind of joking on this one) TSLA robotaxi thing does not ship/work.
  • yunwal 2y ago
    > Hawk Tuah girl is charged for crypto rug pull scam What crime could she possibly be charged with? Did she make any statements that weren't true about it? It's still not SEC regulated, so there's no avenue there. Also AFAICT she didn't even have a financial interest in the coin beyond being paid to promote it.
    • wombat-man 2y ago
      Things could change under the new administration, but the SEC considers crypto to be securities: https://www.investopedia.com/crypto-regulations-for-financial-advisors-8402046 https://www.investopedia.com/crypto-regulations-for-financia... She promoted it. Did she disclose why? https://www.npr.org/2023/03/22/1165477713/lindsay-lohan-jake-paul-sec-crypto https://www.npr.org/2023/03/22/1165477713/lindsay-lohan-jake...
• throwawaywilson 2y ago
  Let me begin by saying that this is a throwaway account and I'll be logging out without saving the password right after I finish this post, so if you want to ask questions or debate anything I say, you'll be waiting a very long time for a reply from me. This is for my benefit, as my doctor has suggested that I spend less time arguing with people on the Internet who are obviously wrong. Also, it may be instructive to go through previous years' prediction threads and see how many of those predictions were accurate. You'll probably be able to count them without taking off your shoes. All that said, here are my predictions: * At least one of the top-tier companies doing GenAI research (e.g. MS, Google, or OpenAI) will cut their losses and shut down said program. If it's OpenAI, that's probably also the end of the company. Nvidia's market cap will come back down to earth. * The mainstream Democratic party will, yet again, decide that they lost the 2024 Presidential election due to insufficiently catering to conservatives, and will once again decide on a strategy of "triangulation" in the years to come. This will continue to lose them elections. * Statements and/or behavior of more elected Federal officials (meaning the president or a member of either house of Congress) will make it obvious to the general public that said officials are suffering from major cognitive decline, presumably from advancing dementia due to old age. * More corporate executives in unpopular industries such as defense, banking, fossil fuels, or health insurance again, will be assassinated now that the idea is in people's heads. The only thing that surprised me about the Brian Thompson case is that it took this long. At least a significant minority of said assassins will walk due to jury nullification or eyewitnesses refusing to testify. * 2025 will be the hottest year on record, until 2026 tops it. * Cooperation between Musk and Trump won't last due to no room in the world being large enough to fit both those egos. Trump will find himself sidelined in his own administration and left to sulk and watch TV.
• kertoip_1 2y ago
  In 2025: 1. Viral LLM-based game will be released, new trend emerges 2. Sora-like (AI generated) content floods Internet, significant advancements in that field 2a. Maybe a new kind of addictive video content generator is being released. Possibly for porn 3. AI generated music becomes popular and takes significant market share on Spotify (but it's going to be a music meant to play "in the background", like in supermarket) 4. Significant competitor to Google Search becomes popular. Mostly because of Internet becoming closed due to crawlers gathering data for training. Much less data available publicly, rise of "closed gardens". 5. SpaceX successfully launches payload to orbit with Starship and catches both stages. 6. Much more debris on Earth's orbit, dangerous incident in space because of that 7. VR remains a niche 8. More and more users start using voice to control their personal computers
• rawgabbit 2y ago
  1) Microsoft releases a version of Minecraft with AI enabled NPC characters. Within 24 hours, hackers figured out how to make blocky AI girlfriends for ten year old boys. Seizing on the trend, Microsoft ditches Azure & Office and becomes a digital girlfriend company. Nadella celebrates by swimming in a pool full of cash. 2) OpenAI tells Microsoft that digital girlfriends violate their terms of service. Instead of AI girlfriends, they are renamed as virtual copilots with benefits.
• kylehotchkiss 2y ago
  Geopolitically - Stability will continue to wane as it has since the Afghani evacuation, while US will continue to remain somewhat the way it is despite presidential choice because we're geographically isolated and (nearly?) energy independent. We'll probably hit some records for crude oil and natural gas extraction. While we made an exciting discovery in the new medication for HIV, there doesn't appear to be an imminent innovation in the pipeline that will make a substantial dent in global health, global hunger, or infertility. The few people without smartphones will continue to migrate online, which doesn't mean what we'd call the internet, it's more WhatsApp, IG Reels, and TikTok. I guess I'm a little worried about the situation in Canada. Their government doesn't seem to a good way out of their current situation which blows my mind given the abundance of resources in the county. Their access to made in US weapons may become more of a pressing issue. Tech - Continued iterations in AI lead to a smaller pool of people entering our field, creating a top-heavy distribution of senior engineers who don't have the same free time/ability to take on ambitious open source projects or start up businesses. Businesses in general don't have the same funds to sponsor React-sized projects. So a general slowdown in innovation pace. I can't really understand or imagine how people will enter the field, especially given that many CS degrees/bootcamps don't create career-ready developers. Culturally - People will become more aware of the way companies like United Healthcare hold control over their lives and futures, and maybe push for the private insurance system to be something that they have more market choice over as opposed to selected by their employer.
• nwgo 2y ago
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• deleted 2y ago
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• dysoco 2y ago
  Okay let's do a few just for fun, no real analysis behind these, just as a game: * Trump will suffer from health issues and will step down for a period of time, raising overall concern. * Milei's experiment in Argentina will not cause a disastrous collapse, but poverty and unemployment will be on the rise and his public image will deteriorate. * A major tech company (possibly Google or Apple) will announce a wearable AI device, as the next step in computing after mobile phones. This will be met with skepticism. * We will see AI being used in videogames to generate narratives, dialogues, etc. but not in AAA games, more in an experimental/indie fashion. These games will be very popular among streamers. * A major terrorist event or plane accident will sadly occur that will shock the world, not massively like 9/11 but more in a MH370 or Sandy Hook sense. * AI image and video generated images will become almost impossible to discern from real ones. Some minor chaos in social networks will ensure because of a fake Putin/Trump video or whatever. Countries will start to discuss regulating this more heavily, perhaps even IP banning access to certain services as a first measure.
• jarsin 2y ago
  Global deflationary bust caused by the FED being too tight for too long.
• adamredwoods 2y ago
  - Google search will be split off. - Research will prove that "attention is all you need" LLMs have a ceiling, but new theoretical LLMs will emerge. - Putin will launch a nuclear strike against Ukraine. - Bird flu will become zoonotic, but milder. - Taylor Swift will get married, biggest event of the year. - Apple and Disney will merge, raising prices to everything in the solar system.
• kirubakaran 2y ago
  Everyone with a browser will use https://histre.com/ https://histre.com/ :-p
• regularperson26 2y ago
  Will be a very divisive year. Media (backed by Musk) will push any felony committed by an illegal alien to further back their plan of mass deportation. This mass media plan will happen across all first world countries, which would finish convincing the average citizen that the foreigner is bad.
• mattkenefick 2y ago
  Hopefully React and Tailwind usage will fall off
• AntonioII 2y ago
  Social Media and Communication: * TikTok will continue to dominate engagement among social media platforms, but a new platform blending immersive elements (like augmented reality) and privacy will emerge, attracting younger and corporate audiences. * Facebook (Meta) will persist but lose relevance among younger users. Its strength will lie in niche communities and integration with AR/VR products like the Meta Quest. Technology and Computing: * Generative AI will be widely integrated into productivity tools (emails, text editors, coding, graphic design), but stricter regulations will emerge, especially in the European Union. * Quantum computing will see notable advancements but remain restricted to experimental and governmental use. A "quantum moment" comparable to the "cloud moment" of the 2010s could emerge after 2030. * Smartphones will plateau in innovation, with greater focus on sustainability, repairability, and seamless integration with wearables. Economy and Work: * Remote work will solidify as the norm in many industries, especially technology and creative fields. However, well-structured hybrid models will become the standard for large corporations. * Cryptocurrencies will remain volatile, but related technologies, such as blockchain for contracts and utility-driven NFTs, will gain practical relevance, especially in finance and real estate. Energy and Environment: * Electric vehicles will represent over 50% of sales in developed markets. Pressure to build charging infrastructure in rural and remote areas will significantly increase. * Renewable energy sources (solar and wind) will attract more investment, but storage challenges (batteries and green hydrogen) will remain a major bottleneck. * Global climate action will remain fragmented. Extreme weather events, like severe droughts and floods, will catalyze regional adaptation efforts, but global cooperation will be limited by political disputes. Health and Biotechnology: * CRISPR-based therapies for rare genetic diseases will achieve regulatory approval in several countries, though costs will initially limit accessibility. * Telemedicine will become even more widespread, including real-time AI diagnostics, but ethical and privacy challenges will arise in less-regulated regions. * Pandemics will remain a global concern, but early monitoring systems powered by AI and genetic sequencing will significantly reduce mortality from new outbreaks. Culture and Society: * The popularity of "retro-futuristic" aesthetics and digital escapism will grow, especially in gaming, films, and interactive entertainment. * Increasing awareness of mental health will lead to broader acceptance of practices like meditation and alternative therapies, integrated into conventional healthcare systems. * Social and environmental rights movements will gain momentum but face opposition from conservative groups, driving polarization in countries like the U.S. and Brazil. Geopolitics and Society: * China will expand its technological and diplomatic influence but face internal tensions with regional pro-democracy movements. * The European Union will solidify its role as a regulatory leader in technology and environmental policy, while the U.S. focuses on technological and military dominance. * Artificial intelligence will be used both for misinformation and security, sparking a new "digital arms race." Education and Science: * Hybrid educational models will be widely adopted, with AR and AI technologies personalizing curricula and teaching methods. * Space exploration will yield new milestones, including a manned mission to the * Moon and advancements in Mars exploration, paving the way for settlements in the 2030s. Unexpected Future Trends: * A currently underestimated technology, such as ambient computing (intelligent environments with sensors and automation), may become ubiquitous. * There will be a revival of local communities and self-sufficiency (urban gardening, home renewable energy) as a response to growing digital control and corporate dominance.
• thiago_fm 2y ago
  - We will feel more useless and sad than 2024, with AI and other technological advances showing us we will soon be out of work, with of course, China and other countries doing everything better than us. - There's a 50% likelihood that if you are an American, you will eat at a restaurant where the food is made by machines. - More inflation coming. FED is right. And even more inflation once more protectionist laws and acts are passed. - US's economy will start showing signs of a recession. - Google's search business will start to dwindle. But it has it's own TPUs, worth trillions in NVidia money. Waymo. Android. Youtube, Deepmind. It's a company hard to put a price tag on. - Tesla is going to $1K without any fundamentals. I will feel like throwing away my Benjamin Graham books again. - US dollar will start to devalue as the protectionist policies will start showing its side-effects. - The EU will hit American Big Tech companies hard, as the US is no longer a friendly partner. Beginning of the end for the US techno-feudalism over there. - China is in deflation, but even stronger. People will see again that economics doesn't apply that well in autocracies. It will keep eating the EU's auto industry in countries that have no auto industry (most of them!), as they have no reason to make China a foe or follow the US, which have isolated itself. - Ukraine and Russia will strike a deal, but the war won't end. - US making its own chips will continue being a big topic. More drama to unfold about Intel. - Intel will start showing progress. The Battlemage GPU is a huge success. - NVidia will see its revenue shrink in comparison to this year. - GenAI will become less relevant, with other AI applications having a bigger focus. - OpenAI's market valuation will start going down. Don't get me wrong, ChatGPT is the biggest invention of our decade, but the market is saturated with Anthropic and other competitors doing the same for less. And OpenAI became an one-trick poney. - Robotics will have its run. Tesla will show its lead.
• wasaabi23 2y ago
  Bitcoin will drop to 50k Tiktok will be banned in usa AFD will win german federal elections Google will launch full AI seaech engine Ukraine war will end
• deleted 2y ago
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• trod1234 2y ago
  Most likely, starting in 2025, we will have hit a point of no return. It won't be considered this until much later, if there are people who manage, but still it will be a great year. Great... but terrible things will be coming. AI will have reached another milestone in the amount of tasks and quality that are performed, further debasing the demand for labor, and further moving us all towards societal collapse within the next 50 years; our society based on a distribution of labor reels when chaotic distortions occur, and as it stands today it can be disrupted without a viable (for survival) fallback, the only fallback is non-market socialism which fails (within 50 years). Inflation/Currency debasement will continue getting worse with the abandonment of the petrodollar, and the inability to control the currency with government spending tied to money printing will continue until debt growth exceeds GDP. Shortage which we are only starting to see at the markets, will get much worse. What started as shortage with maintenance products like lithium grease, chemicals, and certain foods will expand. 3rd-party driven interference and the imposition/coercion of cost exceeding means will continue further following and enforcing the trend of lower birth rates, and crazier (psychotic) people (who have been tortured by these things). To put this further in perspective, 1/3 of the welfare paid out goes to those in California right now, who require government assistance for lifes necessities. There is little work to be found. There are people looking for work who have decades of professional experience and they cannot find work in any field because of ghost jobs. The mechanism used by RNA interference to block receptors, works the same in communications networks (i.e. how you find a job). The future is quite bleak because people have ignored many things, buried their heads to things they should not have ignored, and failed to act. They effectively have allowed themselves to be blinded, and stopped listening unable to adapt or react. Quite similar to mouse utopia. The next few years won't be good years. They will be great years. Great and terrible.
• _ache_ 2y ago
  - European economic crisis. - Half of the European inhabitant will live in a country with far-right head of state by the end of 2025. - China will not become the first economy of the world but will invade Taiwan. - Bitcoin will fall (and ETH/BTC will raise to at least 0.1). - One Piece will not end in 2025 but in the next few months. - USA will see another CEO shooting. - India will become third largest economy in the world. - China will outperform all other competitors in AI. - Open Source model to solve simple math problems will be accessible (by the end of 2025).
• dirtybaby 2y ago
  I think there will a war (may be nearly third world war level)
• AwaisZea 2y ago
  1. Technology and AI Generative AI: Widespread integration of AI tools in workplaces for productivity and creativity. Quantum Computing: Advances in quantum computing could bring breakthroughs in problem-solving for industries like healthcare and finance. AI Regulation: Governments may introduce stricter AI regulations to ensure ethical use and minimize risks. Space Exploration: Private and public sector missions (e.g., SpaceX, NASA, ISRO) will push further into space, with a focus on lunar exploration and Mars missions. 2. Economic Trends Global Recession or Recovery: Many economies may face challenges with inflation and recession, though emerging markets might show resilience. Remote Work Evolution: Hybrid work models will mature, and gig economy platforms may grow. Crypto Regulation: Stricter crypto policies in countries aiming to stabilize financial markets. 3. Environment and Climate Climate Action: Countries and corporations will focus on green technologies like renewable energy, EVs, and carbon capture. Extreme Weather: Climate change may lead to more unpredictable weather patterns, pushing sustainable living to the forefront. Biodiversity: Efforts to protect ecosystems and endangered species will become more urgent. 4. Education and Skill Development Online Education: EdTech platforms will continue to innovate, with more AI-powered personalization. Demand for Skills: High demand for skills like data analytics, AI, cloud computing, cybersecurity, and sustainable development practices. 5. Health and Well-Being Healthcare Tech: Continued focus on telemedicine, wearable devices, and AI-driven diagnostics. Mental Health: Increased societal focus on mental health, with improved access to virtual therapies. Pandemic Preparedness: Investment in early warning systems and vaccines for future pandemics. 6. Society and Culture Digital Communities: Growth of communities in spaces like Discord, Reddit, and LinkedIn for networking and learning. Minimalism: Post-pandemic shifts toward minimalism and sustainability in lifestyle choices. Entertainment: Growth in immersive experiences like VR gaming and metaverse spaces.
• jack217 2y ago
  [dead]
• Yawrehto 2y ago
  In short, nothing good. The AI bubble will crash. Prices of…everything will rise in the US. Trump will do bad things and make America an embarrassment to humanity again. The year will be in the top ten hottest years ever recorded. The global rise in antisemitism will level off or keep growing, and it's not implausible many more Jews will immigrate to Israel.
• danzero 2y ago
  [dead]
• ignition_6 2y ago
  my predictions for 2025 in AI: - agents be able to do reliably well in long-range, multi-step tasks (some crazy new architectures/planning strategies/learning strategies) - important empirical work in mech-interp (breakthroughs in scalability) + alignment (develop kind of value alignment frameworks) - robotics + agentic ai will take off - oh while we are at it, "world peace" and why not indeed :)
• kentich 2y ago
  Trump will sell Haiti to Denmark in exchange for buying Greenland ;-)
• brunarupp 2y ago
  IA will become less
• rookderby 2y ago
  A couple days late, but its still 2024. Here's mine, I'll go back and check in a year. I'll try and do at least 10 predictions for future laughs. In 2025, we will: * Extract more crude oil than in any year in history. * Produce more steel than in any year in history. * Not produce more cement than in any year in history. * Install more solar capacity than in any year in history. * See a US federal government funded by CRs (no budget will be passed). * Experience power outages worldwide from a CME. * See the US officially declare war on more than one country to export immigrants. * See the AMOC measurably weaken and cause flooding on the Eastern coast of the US. * See me sell my first game or application. * See an end to the war in the Ukraine, with Russia gaining the Donbas region. * Go crazy with the Steam Deck 2. * Observe that a keyboard left unattended next to my 5 year old will result in key mashing. * [o[p 8.ikomt,j8mhykufvgvjlrdl,kersrkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkjkkkjkjjkjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk777777777777771111111111111111110000000000000000333333333333333123456789012356789w23536376376276217111111111111111654321`1234567890-z/.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;GFV
• crash031003 2y ago
  im gonna narrow down my predictions for whats gonna happen in India in 2025 the rupee value starts falling more and more and they keep raising taxes and avoiding the real problems and india starts to fail as a country
• lilyxl8 2y ago
  Bird flu becomes an epidemic. A hundred cases in Q1 More models enter the AR glasses market. Ray-Ban Meta gains an AR display, a minimalist Orion. More market adoption spread out across different manufacturers Gen AI products become really sticky. Like daily use. eCommerce product recommendations. The power consumption drives more Big Tech to invest in nuclear energy (SMRs). COP30 sees even less government participation. Google Cloud continues attracting more startups across the US & UK with its scalable gen AI infrastructure. Some AI companies jack up their prices after gaining a critical mass of user base (Meta’s Llama) More AI deployed in more Tech co.s like , replacing more jobs - customer service, transaction compliance, outbound sales. More mental health awareness with social media use. Hopefully more AI or protective measures deployed against active shooters, ie, ZeroEyes. More DEI in the arts - Hollywood, music, publishing. Some sort of immigration crackdown. Trump will need to clarify his stance between Musk’s policies & his MAGA old guard. He & Musk fall out at some point The Russia-Ukraine war ends via attrition. Maybe Israel too