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OpenAI is racing against two clocks: the commoditization clock (how quickly open-source alternatives catch up) and the monetization clock (their need to generat
by fudged71 2y ago
OpenAI is racing against two clocks: the commoditization clock (how quickly open-source alternatives catch up) and the monetization clock (their need to generate substantial revenue to justify their valuation).
The ultimate success of this strategy depends on what we might call the enterprise AI adoption curve - whether large organizations will prioritize the kind of integrated, reliable, and "safe" AI solutions OpenAI is positioning itself to provide over cheaper but potentially less polished alternatives.
This is strikingly similar to IBM's historical bet on enterprise computing - sacrificing the low-end market to focus on high-value enterprise customers who would pay premium prices for reliability and integration. The key question is whether AI will follow a similar maturation pattern or if the open-source nature of the technology will force a different evolutionary path.
- gmerc 2y agoClaude has much better enterprise momentum and sits in AWS support while OpenAI is fighting their own supplier / Big Tech investor.
- EagnaIonat 2y ago> the commoditization clock (how quickly open-source alternatives catch up) I believe we are already there at least for the average person. Using Ollama I can run different LLMs locally that are good enough for what I want to do. That's on a 32GB M1 laptop. No more having to pay someone to get results. For development Pycharm Pro latest LLM autocomplete is just short of writing everything for me. I agree with you in relation to the enterprise.
- FooBarWidget 2y agoThe "open source nature" this time is different. "Open source" models are not actually open source, in the sense that the community can't contribute to their development. At best they're just proprietary freeware. Thus, the continuity of "open source" models depends purely on how long their sponsors sustain funding. If Meta or Alibaba or Tencent decide tomorrow that they're no longer going to fund this stuff, then we're in real trouble, much more than when Red Hat drops the ball. I'd say Meta is the most important player here. Pretty much all the "open source" models are built in Llama in one way or the other. The only reason Llama exists is because Meta wants to commoditize AI in order to prevent the likes of OpenAI from overtaking them later. If Meta one day no longer believes in this strategy for whatever reason, then everybody is in serious trouble.
- fredtalty5 2y ago[dead]
- skeeter2020 2y agoThe enterprise surface area that OpenAI seems to be targeting is very small. The cost curve looks similar to classic cloud providers, but gets very steep much faster. We started on their API and then moved out of the OpenAI ecosystem within ~ 2years as costs grew fast and we see equivalent or better performance with much cheaper and/or OS models, combined with pretty modest hardware. Unless they can pull a bunch of Netflix-style deals the economics here will not work out.
- jijji 2y agoWhat ever happened to IBM Watson? IBM wishes it would have taken off like ChatGPT
- datameta 2y agoHas anyone heard or seen it used anywhere? I was in-house when it launched to big fanfare by upper management and the vast majority of the company was tasked to create team projects utilizing Watsonm
- dtagames 2y agoWatson was a pre-LLM technology, an evolution of IBM's experience with the expert systems which they believed would rule the roost in AI -- until transformers blew all that away.
- anticensor 2y agoThey have a third clock: schools and employers that try to forbid its use.
- dragonwriter 2y ago> OpenAI is racing against two clocks: the commoditization clock (how quickly open-source alternatives catch up) and the monetization clock (their need to generate substantial revenue to justify their valuation). Also important to recognize that those clocks aren’t entirely separated. Monetization timeline is shorter if investors perceive that commodification makes future monetization less certain, whereas if investors perceive a strong moat against commodification, new financing without profitable monetization is practical as long as the market perceives a strong enough moat that investment in growth now means a sufficient increase in monetization down the road.
- vessenes 2y agoAgreed on the strategy questions. It's interesting to tie back to IBM; my first reaction was that openai has more consumer connectivity than IBM did in the desktop era, but I'm not sure that's true. I guess what is true is that IBM passed over the "IBM Compatible" -> "MS DOS Compatible" business quite quickly in the mid 80s; seemingly overnight we had the death of all minicomputer companies and the rise of PC desktop companies. I agree that if you're sure you have a commodity product, then you should make sure you're in the driver seat with those that will pay more, and also try and grind less effective players out. (As a strategy assessment, not a moral one). You could think of Apple under JLG and then being handed back to Jobs as precisely being two perspectives on the answer to "does Apple have a commodity product?" Gassée thought it did, and we had the era of Apple OEMs, system integrators, other boxes running Apple software, and Jobs thought it did not; essentially his first act was to kill those deals.
- fudged71 2y agoThe new pricing tier suggests they're taking the Jobs approach - betting that their technology integration and reliability will justify premium positioning. But they face more intense commoditization pressure than either IBM or Apple did, given the rapid advancement of open-source models. The critical question is timing - if they wait too long to establish their enterprise position, they risk being overtaken by commoditization as IBM was. Move too aggressively, and they might prematurely abandon advantages in the broader market, as Apple nearly did under Gassée. Threading the needle. I don't envy their position here. Especially with Musk in the Trump administration.
- danpalmer 2y agoThe problem is that OpenAI don't really have the enterprise market at all. Their APIs are closer in that many companies are using them to power features in other software, primarily Microsoft, but they're not the ones providing end user value to enterprises with APIs. As for ChatGPT, it's a consumer tool, not an enterprise tool. It's not really integrated into an enterprises' existing toolset, it's not integrated into their authentication, it's not integrated into their internal permissions model, the IT department can't enforce any policies on how it's used. In almost all ways it doesn't look like enterprise IT.
- apugoneappu 2y agoChatGPT does have an enterprise version. I've seen the enterprise version with a top-5 consulting company, and it answers from their global knowledgebase, cites references, and doesn't train on their data.
- echelon 2y agoI assume top-5 consulting companies are buying to be on the bandwagon, but are the rank and file using it?
- thomasmarcelis 2y agoYes, daily. It's extremely useful, superior to internal search while combining the internal knowledge base with ChatGPT's
- HDThoreaun 2y agoIn my experience consultants are using an absolute ton of chatGPT
- dartos 2y agoYMMV wrt your experience and luck. I’m a pretty experienced developer and I struggle to get any useful information out of LLMs for any non-trivial task. At my job (at an LLM-based search company) our CTO uses it on occasion (I can tell by the contortions in his AI code that isn’t present in his handwritten code. I rarely need to fix the former) And I think our interns used it for a demo one week, but I don’t think it’s very common at my company.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- devjab 2y agoI wonder if OpenAI can break into enterprise. I don’t see much of a path for them, at least here in the EU. Even if they do manage to build some sort of trust as far as data safety goes, and I’m not sure they’ll have much more luck with that than Facebook had trying to sell that corporate thing they did (still do?). But if they did, they will still be facing the very real issue of having to compete with Microsoft. I view that competition a bit like the Teams vs anything else. Teams wasn’t better, but it was good enough and it’s “sort of free”. It’s the same with the Azure AI tools, they aren’t feee but since you don’t exactly pay list pricing in enterprise they can be fairly cheap. Co-pilot is obviously horrible compared to CharGPT, but a lot of the Azure AI tooling works perfectly well and much of it integrates seamlessly with what you already have running in Azure. We recently “lost” our OCR for a document flow, and since it wasn’t recoverable we needed to do something fast. Well the Azure Document Intelligence was so easy to hook up to the flow it was ridiculous. I don’t want to sound like a Microsoft commercial. I think they are a good IT business partner, but the products are also sort of a trap where all those tiny things create the perfect vendor lock-in. Which is bad, but it’s also where European Enterprise is at since the “monopoly” Microsoft has on the suite of products makes it very hard to not use them. Teams again being the perfect example since it “won” by basically being a 0 in the budget even though it isn’t actually free.
- wkat4242 2y ago> I wonder if OpenAI can break into enterprise. I don’t see much of a path for them, at least here in the EU. Uhh they're already here. Under the name CoPilot which is really just ChatGPT under the hood. Microsoft launders the missing trust in OpenAI :) But why do you think copilot is worse? It's really just the same engine (gpt-4o right now) with some RAG grounding based on your SharePoint documents. Speaking about copilot for M365 here. I don't think it's a great service yet, it's still very early and flawed. But so is ChatGPT.
- CobrastanJorji 2y agoMan, if they can solve that "trust" problem, OpenAI could really have an big advantage. Imagine if they were nonprofit, open source, documented all of the data that their training was being done with, or published all of their boardroom documents. That'd be a real distinguishing advantage. Somebody should start an organization like that.
- rmbyrro 2y agoIn the early days of ChatGPT, I'd get constantly capped, every single day, even on the paid plan. At the time I was sending them messages, begging to charge me $200 to let me use it unlimited. Finally!..
- TZubiri 2y ago"whether large organizations will prioritize the kind of integrated, reliable, and "safe" AI solutions" While safe in output quality control. SaaS is not safe in terms of data control. Meta's Llama is the winner in any scenario where it would be ridiculous to send user data to a third party.
- m3kw9 2y agoChatGPTs analogy is more like google. People use enough google, they ain’t gonna switch unless is w quantum leap better + with scale. On the API side things could get commoditized, but it’s more than just having a slightly better LLM in the benchmarks.
- ec109685 2y agoMicrosoft is their path into the enterprise. You can use their so-so enterprise support directly or have all the enterprise features you could want via Azure. They also are still leading in the enterprise space: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/maggax_market-share-of-openai-is-going-down-interesting-activity-7266778906953678848-66fy?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios https://www.linkedin.com/posts/maggax_market-share-of-openai...
- freediver 2y agoI would say this differently. There exists no future where OpenAI both sells models through API and has its own consumer product. They will have to pick one of these things to bet the company on.
- a1j9o94 2y agoThat's not necessarily true. There are many companies that have both end user products and B2 products they sell. There are a million specific use cases that OpenAI won't build specific products for. Think Amazon that has both AWS and the retail business. There's a lot of value in providing both.
- trod1234 2y agoThere is no real future in AI long term. Its use caustically destroys more than it creates. It is worthy successor of Pandora's box.
- nom 2y agoAI can be used for financial gain, to influence and lie to people, to simulate human connection, to generate infinite content for consumption,... at scale. It won't go anywhere until _we_ change.
- hackernewds 2y agoThere is really not a lot of Open source large language models with that capability. the only game changer so far has been meta open sourcing llama, and that's about it with models of that caliber
- Balgair 2y agoOne of the main issues that enterprise AI has is the data in large corporations. It's typically a nightmare of fiefdoms and filesystems. I'm sure that a lot of companies would love to use AI more, both internally and commercially. But first they'd have to wrangle their own systems so that OpenAI can ingest the data at all. Unfortunately, those are 5+ year projects for a lot of F500 companies. And they'll have to burn a lot of political capital to get the internal systems under control. Meaning that the CXO that does get the SQL server up and running and has the clout to do something about non-compliance, that person is going to be hated internally. And then if it's ever finished? That whole team is gonna be let go too. And it'll all just then rot, if not implode. The AI boom for corporations is really going to let people know who is swimming naked when it comes to internal data orderliness. Like, you want to be the person that sell shovels in the AI boom here for enterprise? Be the 'Cleaning Lady' for company data and non-compliance. Go in, kick butts, clean it all up, be hated, leave with a fat check.
- CabSauce 2y agoYou just hit the chatGPT api for every row of data. Obviously. (Only 70% joking.)
- lolive 2y agoGuys, ladies, meet Palantir Foundry ! #micDrop
- msy 2y agoGlean are already well established in that space.
- lolive 2y agoDid not know that stack, thanks. From my perspective as a data architect, I am really focused on the link between the data sources and the data lake, and the proper integration of heterogenous data into a “single” knowledge graph. For Palantir, it is not very difficult to learn their way of working [their Pipeline Builder feeds a massive spark cluster, and OntologyManager maintains a sync between Spark and a graph database. Their other productivity tools then rely on either one data lake and/or the other]. I wonder how Glean handles the datalake part of their stack. [scalability, refresh rate, etc]
- interludead 2y agoAI's utility isn't fully locked into large enterprises
- epigramx 2y agoAnd the catch-up of logic clock, how fast people catch-up we don't have Skynet within 2 years, but a glorified google search for the next 20 years.
- ezst 2y agoAm I the only one who's getting annoyed of seeing LLMs be marketed as competent search engines? That's not what they've been designed for, and they have been repeatedly bad at that.
- wkat4242 2y agoYeah they're totally not designed for that. I'm also surprised that companies that surely know better market it as such. Combined with a search engine and AI summarisation, sure. That works well. But batebones no. You can never be sure whether it's hallucinating or not.
- bambax 2y agoYes, but how can this strategy work, and who would choose ChatGPT at this point, when there are so many alternatives, some better (Anthropic), some just as good but way cheaper (Amazon Nova) and some excellent and open-source?