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Tsunami Warning for Northern California
- epicureanideal 2y agoAny idea how far it would reach, what cities would actually be affected?
- mdhb 2y agohttps://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=Tsunami%20Warning https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&ww...
- mrnaught 2y agoGoogle maps has this neat map : https://www.google.com/maps/@40.4392216,-123.0674806,6z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m2!21m1!1s%2Fg%2F11wp82g8q2?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MTIwMy4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D https://www.google.com/maps/@40.4392216,-123.0674806,6z/data...
- saltcured 2y agoThe boundaries on this look very odd to me. I wonder what kind of model and terrain resolution they use for this forecast. It seems very odd how some quite low lying shore areas in the SF Bay are excluded while other areas are painted over very high elevations including the SF peninsula and Oakland/Berkeley hills.
- plorkyeran 2y agoFor the East Bay it looks like they drew a very rough outline of the contour of the hills and then pushed it an extra half mile or so inland, which results in some clearly safe spots landing inside the line.
- anon84873628 2y agoThe SF bay and Santa Cruz are on the south end of the effected area. On past occasions like this, waves have washed over low beaches and lagoons, but not come remotely close to overtopping the coastal terrace cliffs.
- photochemsyn 2y ago> Estimated tsunami start times for selected sites are; Fort Bragg California 1110 AM.PST. December 5. Crescent City California 1120 AM.PST. December 5. Port Orford Oregon 1120 AM.PST. December 5. Brookings Oregon 1125 AM.PST. December 5. Charleston Oregon 1140 AM.PST. December 5. San Francisco California 1210 PM.PST. December 5. The tsunami warning will remain in effect until further notice. Refer to the internet site tsunami.gov for more information.
- milleramp 2y agoAppears to be due to a 7.0 earthquake off the northern coast of California
- mdhb 2y agoEstimated tsunami start times for selected sites are; Fort Bragg California 1110 AM.PST. December 5. Crescent City California 1120 AM.PST. December 5. Port Orford Oregon 1120 AM.PST. December 5. Brookings Oregon 1125 AM.PST. December 5. Charleston Oregon 1140 AM.PST. December 5. San Francisco California 1210 PM.PST. December 5.
- duxup 2y agoHow do Tsunami Warnings work? For a Midwesterner a Tornado Warning requires someone to see it, or be be detected by radar. It's usually a good indicator that it is highly likely that the tornado exists and it is actively doing its thing somewhere. Warnings are pretty specific and almost always involve the thing happening. Tsunami though, would it have to exist as far as seeing it on the coast, or is this more of a "conditions are ripe" kind of event? I wonder if the Tsunami situation with all the under water variables is a lot more unknown?
- whimsicalism 2y agoi believe they have monitoring deep ocean buoys
- pageandrew 2y agoHow do these detect tsunamis? They must be observing elevation changes, right? Is that GPS based?
- whimsicalism 2y agoi think they monitor pressure waves somehow here is an interactive map, looks like some of them are picking up something https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/obs.shtml?lat=13&lon=-173&zoom=2&pgm=tsunami https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/obs.shtml?lat=13&lon=-173&zoom=2&p...
- hinkley 2y agoTriangulation can tell you where a point is between three sources but you need four to determine elevation, because it’s not the radius of a circle but the radius of a sphere. But at sea there’s not much to obscure satellite signals so I believe resolving buoy position was a solved problem back when gps car navigation still sucked balls because tall buildings make everything harder. You need a lot more satellites to see three or four at the same moment.
- adastra22 2y agoIt is all 100% automatic based on earthquake data.
- whimsicalism 2y agoIs it like.. still safe to be driving on 101/280 during this?
- adastra22 2y ago280 is for sure safe.
- erik_seaberg 2y agoThe warning went at least as far as the inland side of Fremont, which seemed extreme.
- reducesuffering 2y agoI, as another Eric in Fremont, also seemed bewildered when I got this warning
- adastra22 2y agoThis webcam should let us know in a few minutes if this is real: https://www.pacificblue.biz/noyo-harbor-webcam/ https://www.pacificblue.biz/noyo-harbor-webcam/ Edit: arrival time has come and gone. No indication of movement in water level.
- duxup 2y agoLooks nice, I want to go have lunch there (without the Tsunami).
- adastra22 2y agoFor sure!
- stickfigure 2y agoI have had lunch there, can confirm. Though I think the best food in the harbor is at Noyo Harbor Inn. The Wharf was pretty good for an old-school seafood restaurant.
- jjulius 2y agoLikewise. Stopped in on a whim, and was pleasantly surprised. Delightful little area in that harbor, and the food was better than expected. I appreciate the surprise nostalgia from this webcam. :)
- choppaface 2y agoThere are a handful of good restaurants (e.g. Sea Pal Cove) and a nice off-leash beach beach there despite it being a very sleepy corner of the small city.
- whalesalad 2y agoLots of boats beginning to move out
- kccoder 2y agoI'm seeing lots of boats exiting the harbor, presumably to enter the ocean where any tsunami effects will be lessened?
- dboreham 2y agoMinor point, but the web site (under "Origin time:") displays a time stamp in local time (local to the web browser viewing the page), but doesn't tell the user that's what it's doing. imho very confusing. Edit. Noticed it says in small print lower down the page: "Note: Times are local to your browser, unless otherwise indicated" so either I missed that before, or someone on this thread fixed it...
- postepowanieadm 2y agoStay safe people.
- whalesalad 2y agoFORECASTS OF TSUNAMI ACTIVITY ----------------------------- * Tsunami activity is forecasted to start at the following locations at the specified times. FORECAST START SITE OF TSUNAMI ---- ---------- * California Fort Bragg 1110 PST Dec 5 Crescent City 1120 PST Dec 5 San Francisco 1210 PST Dec 5 * Oregon Port Orford 1120 PST Dec 5 Brookings 1125 PST Dec 5 Charleston 1140 PST Dec 5 via https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PAAQ/2024/12/05/so1aq0/1/WEAK51/WEAK51.txt https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PAAQ/2024/12/05/so1aq0/1/WEAK...
- sytse 2y agoI should have hit Fort Bragg by now but I'm not seeing that on https://www.noyocenter.org/live-web-cam https://www.noyocenter.org/live-web-cam The earthquake was real but it is probably really hard to predict if that leads to a tsunami.
- lumost 2y agoIs that webcam guaranteed to be a live/up to date feed? regardless I'd imagine there to be some confirmation by now.
- OsrsNeedsf2P 2y agoThere's a timestamp in the top right, so yes. Looks like no tsunami
- lawlessone 2y agoI just seen two people walk by... seems like a bit of a gamble to do that.
- s1artibartfast 2y agoI was watching the crescent city webcam and watched the fishing boats rushing out of the harbor after the quake. The webcam is now down, so I hope they made it. Crescent city has a long history of being devastated by norcal quakes due the the bathymetry and costline profile.
- Polizeiposaune 2y agoAppears to be due to this M7.0 earthquake off the coast of California near Eureka, CA: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000nw7b/executive https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000nw7b... (early estimates of magnitude tend to vary; looks like magnitude estimates are currently ranging from 6.0 to 7.3)
- mkolodny 2y agoPRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS --------------------------------- * The following parameters are based on a rapid preliminary assessment of the earthquake and changes may occur. * Magnitude 7.3 * Origin Time 0944 AKST Dec 05 2024 1044 PST Dec 05 2024 1844 UTC Dec 05 2024 * Coordinates 40.3 North 124.7 West * Depth 8 miles * Location 45 miles SW of Eureka, California 215 miles NW of San Francisco, California
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- sytse 2y agoCool to see that Google Docs gives me this warning too https://imgur.com/a/B6qSboV https://imgur.com/a/B6qSboV
- WhereIsTheTruth 2y agoThat's it? "Tsunami Warning", no context? no advice on what to do to avoid panic?
- andrewinardeer 2y agoI would suggest that this is based on location of the IP address. I'm not getting it on the other side of the world.
- Pigalowda 2y agoPresumably a person receiving such an alert would have a heightened sense of self preservation and would investigate further..
- clueless 2y agoany chance of a live feed of an affected beach?
- sbohacek 2y agoCrescent city live web cam. Currently showing boats going out to sea. https://www.iplivecams.com/live-cams/crescent-city-harbor-district-sunset-view-california-united-states/ https://www.iplivecams.com/live-cams/crescent-city-harbor-di...
- quietthrow 2y agoInteresting observation: I am in a circumstance where I am transitioning from an Android phone (Samsung Galaxy) to a iPhone. I observed that android phone alerted me about an earthquake and that I should be ready to feel tremors. To my surprise as I was pondering how this system works - especially wrt to latency - where it alerts me head of time, I then fell small tremors in 2 or 3 seconds after the alert. The tremors were very small and I would not have noticed it if it weren’t for the alert. ~10 (may 15 minutes) later, the IPhone gave a tsunami warning which I take it was due to the earthquake. What I was surprised by is how behind the iPhone was. I expected iPhone to be on par with android in terms of safety alerts. Anybody know if there is a way to get the early alerts on iPhone like I did on the android phone? In general my impression of Android is that it’s quite ‘leaky’ and apps can abuse it quite easily and iPhone is more secure. Would love to hear thoughts on this or point me to resources that address this question.
- tshaddox 2y agoSounds like it could have just been a quirk. I've had a couple of iPhone earthquake alerts around 0-2 seconds before feeling it, so it's definitely not a general problem with iPhones. I've also had many more of the AMBER alerts and test broadcast alerts where everyone in the room receives them at the same instant regardless of phone manufacturer.
- trial3 2y agoThe Verge's Vergecast podcast did a pretty in-depth story in the second half of an episode about this that was fascinating [0] tldl: I do think the recommendation was installing the official ShakeAlert app [0] https://podcasts.apple.com/mu/podcast/two-possible-futures-for-ai/id430333725?i=1000674841865 https://podcasts.apple.com/mu/podcast/two-possible-futures-f...
- HuoKnight 2y agoI have an android (pixel 7), and I got not alert for earthquake or tsunami. IOS users around me got alerted for the magnitude 7, not entirely sure about the tsunami
- 2y ago
- whalesalad 2y agosome great camera resources up and down the coast here - https://cameras.alertcalifornia.org/?pos=38.9615_-123.6676_8# https://cameras.alertcalifornia.org/?pos=38.9615_-123.6676_8...
- andrewinardeer 2y agoThis is the biggest earthquake in California since when?
- joshuahedlund 2y ago- 7.1 on 2019-07-05 - 7.2 on 2010-04-04 - 7.3 on 1992-06-28 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_California https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_Califor...
- fckgw 2y agoLooks like Ridgecrest 7.1 in 2019. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Ridgecrest_earthquakes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Ridgecrest_earthquakes
- some-guy 2y agoNot how many other HNners live in Humboldt County, but that was certainly the most intense earthquake I've ever felt. Thankfully we are inland with modern(ish) construction.
- tonymet 2y agothese systems were set up about 20 years ago after the Thailand tsunami. Have there been notable results from their application?
- dboreham 2y agoTakes about 300 years to find out.
- Rebelgecko 2y agoThe western US was warned of tsunamis after the 2011 earthquake in Japan. They also released a warning before the 2009 tsunami in American Samoa but I'm not sure how effective it was due to the short timeframe and speed of disseminating the info
- latchkey 2y agohttps://nixle.us/FZ3E9 https://nixle.us/FZ3E9
- cossatot 2y agoBased on the location and focal mechanism of the earthquake (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/nc75095651/moment-tensor https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/nc75095651...), this is a strike-slip earthquake on the plate boundary between the Pacific and Gorda/Juan de Fuca plates. Strike-slip earthquakes occur when two plates slide beside each other during an earthquake, usually along a steeply-dipping if not vertical fault. These kinds of earthquakes almost never produce damaging (or even really noticeable) tsunamis because there is no real displacement of sea water by seafloor movement, unlike a thrust or subduction zone earthquake. The USGS's automated systems calculate the location and focal mechanism/moment tensor pretty much instantly from the seismic network. The system should know that a significant tsunami is unlikely based on the parameters of the earthquake. On the one hand, it's good to be cautious, but on the other hand, a system designed to cry wolf is also self-undermining. Maybe they should have a tiered warning system?
- 0xffff2 2y agoLooking at https://tsunami.gov/ https://tsunami.gov/, it seems like they do have a 4 tier system, but they jumped straight to the highest tier in this case?
- throw83838 2y agoHN has good SnR generally, but I would default to trusting their automated system more than Random Internet Guy. Even if the warning gets canceled after measurements become available.
- cossatot 2y agoI'm a Random Internet Guy who is a professional in the field (earthquake hazards, not tsunamis in particular).
- rootusrootus 2y agoYou definitely sound like it. But man, I've met some convincing liars online so I try to be cautious when someone makes claims and I have no proof that they are who they claim to be (especially when they didn't make that claim explicitly, and just sound very intelligent). It's a complication that will never happen, but sometimes I think it would be cool if HN had a way of authenticating experts and giving them flair. So many legit smart people here.
- jboy55 2y agoFrom https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PHEB/2024/12/05/24340001/2/WEPA40/WEPA40.txt https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PHEB/2024/12/05/24340001/2/WE... TSUNAMI THREAT FORECAST...UPDATED --------------------------------- * THERE IS NO LONGER A TSUNAMI THREAT FROM THIS EARTHQUAKE.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- psophis 2y agoThis message is for Hawaii. Edit: Now as of "1154 AM PST Thu Dec 5 2024" the warning is canceled: https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PAAQ/2024/12/05/so1aq0/3/WEAK51/WEAK51.txt https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PAAQ/2024/12/05/so1aq0/3/WEAK...
- slwvx 2y agoThe "Pacific Tsunami Warning Center" is in Hawaii, which is why it is mentioned at the start of the message. Did you by chance just misread this? See the page below: https://www.tsunami.gov/?page=history https://www.tsunami.gov/?page=history
- neonate 2y agoIt's unfortunately hard to tell what regions that message is for, or whether it contradicts the other one saying the warning is still in effect: https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PAAQ/2024/12/05/so1aq0/2/WEAK51/WEAK51.txt https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PAAQ/2024/12/05/so1aq0/2/WEAK.... It looks like https://tsunami.gov/?p=PHEB/2024/12/05/24340001/2/WEPA40 https://tsunami.gov/?p=PHEB/2024/12/05/24340001/2/WEPA40 is the 11:29 PST message saying there is no tsunami warning for "Non-US/Canada Pacific". And it looks like https://tsunami.gov/?p=PAAQ/2024/12/05/so1aq0/2/WEAK51 https://tsunami.gov/?p=PAAQ/2024/12/05/so1aq0/2/WEAK51 is the 11:25 PST message saying there is still a tsunami warning for "AK/BC/US West Coast". But it's not easy to tell what one's looking at if one doesn't already understand the system, and conditions of "extreme danger" (which is what my phone told me about half an hour ago) are not a good moment to figure these out. Edit: here we go: https://tsunami.gov/?p=PAAQ/2024/12/05/so1aq0/3/WEAK51 https://tsunami.gov/?p=PAAQ/2024/12/05/so1aq0/3/WEAK51 now says "No Tsunami Warning, Advisory, Watch, or Threat" for "AK/BC/US West Coast" as of 11:55 PST.
- colesantiago 2y ago[flagged]
- dekhn 2y agoWhy do you believe that AGI would affect earthquake predictions?
- colesantiago 2y ago> earthquake predictions because we can't currently predict earthquakes? and if we can with AGI we would be saving lives?
- dekhn 2y agoLet's unpack what you're saying. You seem to believe that AGI would be able to predict something that we have been actively researching for decades. I do not see how AGI would suddenly be able to solve a problem that smart people have already been working on, unless the AGI was also "superintelligent" in ways that contributed. AGI proper is merely artificial intelligence, not necessarily superintelligence. Second, I question that earthquake prediction would make a big difference in saving lives. In particular, earthquake prediction would come with a wide range of risks. It would have to balance true positives with false positives- after a few "OMG everybody leave SF" that didn't pan out, people would just tune out the tsunami warning. Also, telling everybody to leave a large urban area is prone to massive other problems such as increased accidents, disruption of delivery of food and emergency services, and increased overall stress. Likely, more people would die in response (increased road accidents) to your intervention, than were saved. It seems far more likely that investing effort into identifying actual risks (such as infrastructure that is likely to fail, or individuals living in places that are highly prone to flooding), and addressing those issues through systemic improvements would be a much more useful way to use the machine learning technology we have. And even that isn't necessary; we know what the problems are, we just don't invest in improving it.
- colesantiago 2y ago
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- bagels 2y agoThey should really name these like storms/tornados: "warning" means there is actually a tsunami, "watch" means there might be a tsunami. The map showed the warning extending to >1000ft elevation. That is a little over the top.
- toast0 2y agoThe ever present taco distinction. https://www.stevenscountywa.gov/pview.aspx?id=21417&catid=0 https://www.stevenscountywa.gov/pview.aspx?id=21417&catid=0
- bagels 2y agoI had not seen it applied to tacos before, but it's the perfect metaphor.
- ahi 2y agoThe problem is that the proper response to a tornado is very different than that of a tsunami. In the case of a tornado, everyone moves to an interior room of a well built structure. A tornado warning means keep on an eye on the sky. In the case of a tsunami, thousands of people may need to evacuate many miles away. Expected landfall of any tsunami was something like 20 minutes after this earthquake so they can't exactly wait until confirmation to get people moving.
- bagels 2y agoYou issue a watch and people can make their own decision. You issue a warning, and everyone learns that you should ignore warnings.
- tj-teej 2y agoI am riding the Caltrain south, we slowed to a snail's pace and they said it would take 2hr+ to get to Palo Alto (from SF). A bunch of people got off, and then the conductor comes back on the PA system to say the speed limitation had been limited and "we'll be going back to 79 MPH, hold on to your hats"
- mosdl 2y agoFirst earthquake for the new electric trains probably, I can see why they would be cautious.
- toast0 2y agoA 7.0 earthquake nearby is a pretty good reason to slow down trains, regardless of propulsion. The easily found page about Caltrain's response to earthquakes [1] doesn't include magnitude 7, but also doesn't include earthquakes more than 100 miles from the tracks either. So I think a brief reduction in speed is reasonable for a large quake within the larger area and quickly ending the restriction as its confirmed the quake was outside the policy scope. [1] https://www.caltrain.com/rider-information/safety-security/earthquakes-effect-caltrain-service https://www.caltrain.com/rider-information/safety-security/e...
- nu2ycombinator 2y agoyou are happy because speed limit is lifted off or because of those people got off turned out to be wrong
- hash07e 2y agoRide the wave baby!
- jeffbee 2y agoCanceled: BULLETIN Public Tsunami Message Number 3 NWS National Tsunami Warning Center Palmer AK 1154 AM PST Thu Dec 5 2024 ...THE TSUNAMI WARNING IS CANCELLED... * The Tsunami Warning is canceled for the coastal areas of California and Oregon
- joshlittle 2y agoIt has been cancelled.
- neonate 2y agohttps://tsunami.gov/?p=PAAQ/2024/12/05/so1aq0/3/WEAK51 https://tsunami.gov/?p=PAAQ/2024/12/05/so1aq0/3/WEAK51 as of a few minutes ago (11:55am PST) says there is no more warning for AK/BC/US West Coast, which would include northern California. This was confusing because the warning was called off earlier for a different region while still in effect for this one (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42331931 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42331931).
- alxjsn 2y agoFinal update: https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PAAQ/2024/12/05/so1aq0/3/WEAK51/WEAK51.txt https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PAAQ/2024/12/05/so1aq0/3/WEAK... > * The Tsunami Warning is canceled for the coastal areas of California and Oregon
- wooten 2y agoTwo observations: 1) The blanket warning for areas that are clearly outside inundation zones drives a lot of confusion/fear. We can vastly improve our warning infra by utilizing better geo data to drive more effective alerts. For example, Tsunami inundation zone data is well known. Why not send only to phones currently in and maybe within 250m of those zones? 2) A lot of 'am I in a tsunami inundation zone?' sites were broken when I checked. them. Official government sites too. Of course that could be a function of traffic, but if so, it demonstrates a lack of resilience in their systems. We need better.
- sparky_z 2y ago>Why not send only to phones currently in and maybe within 250m of those zones? There's often significant lag between the earthquake and the arrival time. You don't just want the people in the inundation zone to know, you also want everyone else to know to stay away. That's not just a theoretical edge case. If this had been a major tsunami your system would have killed me just now. I would have been outside of your suggested range and alone at the time of the alert, but was planning to walk my dog along the water front at noon, which was just around the projected arrival time.
- wooten 2y agoah yes excellent point.
- not_your_mentat 2y agoI'm waiting for the big one to come and go before I'm willing to relocate to the west coast again. I was about to start looking for real estate and they they called the whole thing off.
- jrnichols 2y agoCancelled as of 1201 PST.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- alsetmusic 2y agoI live in Oakland and the warning was cancelled about forty minutes ago. I did drive inland and put some large hills between me and the coast, however.
- unit149 2y agoMass casualties stemming from a tsunami are predicated on the geographical significations of the region that it is hitting. One instance is the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the havoc it wrought on the coast on much of the coastline of Thailand. There were coastal resorts that managed to avoid damage due to being situated in crescent shaped coves.
- jmward01 2y agoOf course, the elephant in the room here is how does this impact the risk of a Cascadia earthquake. This had to have just added a lot of stress to the southern segment.
- johnea 2y agoCancellation The tsunami Warning is canceled for the coastal areas of California and Oregon.
- khushy 2y agoLooks like it's been lifted