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Why has Japan been hit with rice shortages despite normal crops?
- Loughla 2y agoSo he says it's not because of tourism, but because of subsidies. But then in the next section says it's because demand outstrips supply because of things like tourism. What? This is a piece of political writing targeted at the Japanese land use and subsidy policy. Nothing more.
- adrian_b 2y agoThey have explained clearly enough. Their system of subsidies limits the production of rice, so they do not have any rice surplus. Because of that, even a very small increase in rice demand, like from having more tourists than expected in 2024 (I have also visited Japan this year, benefiting from the small prices after yen conversion) has been enough so that the demand could not be satisfied, resulting in increased prices. After tasting the Japanese rice in Japan, I agree with the article that their rice is by far the best and that the government policy of limiting the rice production is wrong and it would be much better for them to produce a rice surplus and attempt to export it. As they are aware, they could not compete directly with the cheaper rice from Thailand or other major exporters, but they could compete successfully in the "more expensive but better" rice category.
- mkesper 2y agoQ: It's said that the decline in rice consumption is serious, but if the amount produced increased and the price went down, people would eat more, wouldn't they? A: Exactly. Rice acreage reduction is an absolutely terrible policy. The government spends over 300 billion yen (about $2.06 billion) in subsidies annually to decrease the amount of rice produced, thus going out of its way to raise the price and increasing the burden on consumers.
- dekken_ 2y ago[flagged]
- mensetmanusman 2y agoFiat money can be printed. It’s one reason that governments are quite bad at executing on innovation that requires long nights and weekends to spin up.
- dekken_ 2y ago> Fiat money can be printed. And inflation is a tax.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago> And inflation is a tax Metaphorically. In the way time spent commuting is a tax. Or taking your kid to a doctor is a tax.
- dekken_ 2y agoNo, it's not metaphorical. If in January, you can buy something for $1, then in February because of inflation it becomes $1.10, that's a 10% tax increase. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NgSqZKx0mNI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NgSqZKx0mNI
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago> No, it's not metaphorical It is, though largely due to confusion rather than intentional metaphor. (Exception: when described as a “shadow tax,” though that is still a close metaphor and only applies to debt-monetising monetary inflation.) > If in January, you can buy something for $1, then in February because of inflation it becomes $1.10, that's a 10% tax increase You’re confusing taxes and costs. When Russia invaded Ukraine, they didn’t levy a tax on poor Egyptians even though Moscow’s actions raised their food costs. Cost increases are taxing [1]. Confusing something taxing with a tax [2] is a common mistake but still wrong. (And valiantly wrong in a policy context.) [1] https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/taxing#h1 https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/taxing#h1 [2] https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/tax https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/tax
- begueradj 2y agoTo be fair, that's a common practice even when it comes to non edible products (for example, coming from a petrol producing country, I grew up hearing every now and then about OPEC having decided to reduce petrol production to raise prices)
- inanutshellus 2y agoYes but per the article, this policy has been active for 60 years. They're not temporarily buoying after a seasonal surplus, they're just paying farmers not to farm ..... for generations.
- downrightmike 2y agoThe USA has been doing that since the 1970's as land preservation.
- jacobr1 2y agoWhich is dumb. Land should just be purchased for conservation (or other arrangements like easements with transfer on sale) to the government or private land conservatory groups. Endless subsidy is corrupt.
- ambyra 2y agoJapan is an island, which can be blockaded, so they’ve always tried to help their farmers. Usually they pay the farmers to grow less, not pay them to grow nothing. Also this policy was phased out in 2018; now they’re just subsidizing farmers and encouraging crop diversity. I think they’re doing a good job. Being a farmer is always hard. In Japan at least they’re making it easier. Encouraging crop diversity and organic farming is nice (especially compared to the us corn/soy situation).
- downrightmike 2y agoDepleting the land in that manner is what caused the Dust Bowl. May sound dumb, but it is certainly not.
- EasyMark 2y agoAre people moving to other crops that aren’t as water intensive with all the global warming and erratic weather patterns that are developing around the world? Looks like from the article there isn’t a significant decrease in rice production and “tourism” could only affect 0.5% so could it be artificial inflation like in the USA from limited competition that’s been going on the past few years?
- mytailorisrich 2y agoActually, global warming is making Japan get more rain.
- sandworm101 2y agoGlobal warming, climate change is shifting weather patterns. While west coasts (California, the UK, Spain) are generally getting less rain, East coasts (Japan, Newfoundland, Florida) are generally getting hit with more rain and more storms.
- mytailorisrich 2y agoThe UK is actually getting more and more rain because evaporation over the Atlantic increases with warming (I suppose same phenomenon as for Japan)... at least as long as the Gulf Stream keeps flowing.
- bamboozled 2y agoThere is no water shortage on a small island like Japan, it gets a LOT of rain, and really, when grown in the mountain areas (cmmon in Japan) the rice terraces probably slow the water flow down rather than speed it up (going via the river straight into the sea) somewhat watering the rice crops and all other life nearby. Rice doesn't actually need a lot of water to grow, they use the water as a type of weed control, rice is unique in that it can grow practically submersed in water. Most other species cannot. Bali has been experimenting growing rice without such large amounts of water, it went well. Google it!
- pjc50 2y agoTLDR: the article points to a system of agricultural subsidy through quota limits, called "acreage reduction", similar to EU "set aside". It seems a common phenomenon around the world that, because price instability for food leads to social instability, governments end up with elaborate systems of direct and indirect price control. In this case, farmers being paid not to grow rice.
- WillAdams 2y agoIt makes a lot more sense to allow them to grow it and to buy any surplus at a certain minimum price, then store it against famine years.
- hangsi 2y agoYes, but then it needs to be stored, and the price effects might encourage even more production. Previously this has led to events like the devastating Wisconsin butter flood [0] ("A firefighter reported flames 300 feet (91 m) high", "It took about twenty hours to contain the blaze, and eight days until the fire was officially out"). Not that rice would do anything so nefarious, but more to point out that large scale purchase and storage is not a trivial task. I can imagine the scenario where some bureaucrats ran the numbers and concluded that it is cheaper to just give the money to farmers instead of running the purchase/storage scheme. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisconsin_Butter_Fire https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisconsin_Butter_Fire
- WillAdams 2y agoRice would split open the hulls of wooden sailing vessels if it got wet. The problem is, the other option here, the Futures Markets has Goldman-Sachs using their vast cash reserves to buy in when it suits them so as to make money on the people's daily bread. Like many other things, "It's better to have it and not need it, than need it, and not have it."
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- Dalewyn 2y agoWhy? Politics. Fin. The Japanese government has long managed the production of rice to keep market prices high for the farmers' sake and given subsidies to farmers to not fully utilize their production potential. Covid hit and tanked the demand moreso than usual, so government policies shifted to further production (read: supply) reductions. Less supply in response to reduced demand equals maintained market prices. Politics has not caught up in the post-covid era where demand from both domestic and international (including tourism) has recovered and surged. The supply is still mid-covid limited. Why? Politics. Fin.
- onlyrealcuzzo 2y agoEven great farmers can go out of business with just one really bad year. That's not really in your interest, either. The free market people will say - oh, someone else will just come in and take over the farm. Easier said than done. I'm not saying Japan has the best system, but it's probably nowhere near as bad as you think.
- Dalewyn 2y ago>I'm not saying Japan has the best system, but it's probably nowhere near as bad as you think. I merely answered the Why? in the clickbaity article title. As far as my thoughts on the policy, I think it's quite more reasonable than the far more popular western policy of letting the free market kill itself in a race to the bottom only to then be bought out by China. The current rice shortage isn't a problem to do with the policy, it's how it's being handled.
- Ekaros 2y agoAnd all western countries all doing same type of or similar enough subsidy. EU is built on it. Free market on food is only something pushed on lesser nations...
- willcipriano 2y agoWith the current high food prices, US taxpayers will be pleased to know that they will spend about 4 billion this year on ensuring the farmers don't grow too much food (this total is up from last year due to the inflation reduction act)
- wodenokoto 2y ago> The crop situation index for rice grown in 2023, indicating the amount of the rice harvest, was 101 Does that mean that each acre is producing about 100% of the average production, or that the total production is about 100% of the average production? The article makes it sound like the change in production is neglectable and that the change in demand is tiny, implying that a high estimate would be about 0.5% increase in demand.
- freeone3000 2y agoCrop situation index is percentage yield of the area cultivated. 2023 had 101% of the expected yield per area, so it’s not a bad harvest (2022 had a 96 due to the typhoon, for instance). Which means the high price of rice results from some combination of increased consumption or reduced cultivation area.
- pm90 2y agoIm somewhat baffled by this policy… just produce as much rice as you can, buy surplus from farmers and give it out cheap/free as food assistance to developing countries. Surely a small cost to the Government to get a steady, controlled production numbers.
- rglullis 2y agoAnd then get accused of dumping by the WTO?
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago> then get accused of dumping by the WTO? Plenty of countries have subsidised or even free food programmes. (EDIT: Nvm, missed “to developing countries.”)
- jncfhnb 2y agoDumping is not related to subsidized or free food programs. Dumping is about offloading a ton of cheap product in another country.
- jncfhnb 2y agoProviding free food to poor countries runs the food producers out of business in those countries and counter intuitively harms their food security
- erremerre 2y agoThen give it to your enemies, send it to North Korea!
- rasz 2y agoMore money for Nuke development aimed at Japan?
- inanutshellus 2y ago
- miragecraft 2y agoA lot of countries have a national food reserve that is used to calm prices when demand fluctuates, it allows time to adjust production while you’re putting food in or out of the reserve to control prices. Does Japan not have that?
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- phonon 2y agohttps://www.bastillepost.com/global/article/4076639-japans-rice-stockpile-falls-to-lowest-level-in-this-century https://www.bastillepost.com/global/article/4076639-japans-r... "Japan's rice stockpile has dropped to its lowest level in this century due to a prolonged heatwave in 2023 and rising domestic demand, causing concerns among residents about high prices."
- lvspiff 2y agoProbably for the same reason strategically placed tea reserves all around china just incase someone wants to steal it "all"...the idea of Japan having a massive underground cave complex for rice is amusing to me for some reason. I know its not how it works but the next big earthquake could open up a lava flow and produce a giant rice krispy field and then we'd just have to lure the stay-puff marshmallow man into that field...
- mey 2y agoIs there a list of food reserves that each country maintains? I feel like that would be an interesting/funny cultural insight. Like the US Cheese Stockpile or the Canada Maple Syrup Reserve.
- Scoundreller 2y agoGotta include the at-home stocks which is going to be harder/more variable to measure. Though if you have diversity in your crop production, usually when one thing does badly, something else does better, especially if your country is big. When COVID first hit, I did an estimate of how much food I had on hand (without even intentionally trying to stockpile) and I figure I could live 6-8 months without leaving.
- empath75 2y agoI wonder how much of this is actually just inflation. The first sign of inflation is shortages, usually, and then people raise prices to keep the goods on the shelf.
- rawgabbit 2y agoTLDR. The expert Kazuhito Yamashita argues: Japan is only producing about half of the rice it could potentially produce. This is due to government policy that pays farmers not to grow to prevent falling prices. Argues in the current geopolitical climate with the potential of a food blockade, this policy should be abandoned. If abandoned, Japan will become one of the largest rice exporters which he argues is better for Japanese food security.
- philipov 2y agoIt sounds like an XY problem. They don't want the price to fall because then farming wouldn't be profitable, but they're paying farmers to not profit off sales anyway. Instead of subsidizing half the farmers to do nothing, they should subsidize all the farmers, half as much, and allow the price to drop by half.
- k8wk1 2y agoThe amount of annual subsidies is around $2 billion. It's a tiny number for a country as large as Japan. Their GDB is $4 trillion per year.
- gruez 2y agoAnything is small if you choose a big enough denominator (eg. GDP). What's the total value rice production in japan? This source[1] values all agricultural output at $29B, which means rice subsidy alone is 6.9% of agricultural production. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Agricultural_output_Japan.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Agricultural_output_Japan...
- mistrial9 2y agoit is not a simple number.. people who operate business on the commodity scale, often have very low profits and therefore, have lower spending power economically.. in other words, lots of farmers tend to live close to a kind of poverty. Meanwhile, in the center of some kind of fast and loose economics, like entertainment for example.. lots of economic spending power is traded very quickly.. plenty of people in the entertainment industries do not live close to poverty at all.. Large economic systems in real life have economic niches. Government policy levers change the basic flow patterns.. it is often a matter of life and death
- binary132 2y agoI’m sure they would never do that here. Our price increases are completely organic, natural, and market-driven, as always. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.
- garibaldy 2y agoyet another success of planned economy
- InDubioProRubio 2y agoyes, why cant we just all have the great depression 100 time.. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression
- dade_ 2y agoThere is strong evidence that attempts to fix the depression actually made it worse and prolonged it. One take of many: https://www.econlib.org/policy-failure-during-the-great-depression/ https://www.econlib.org/policy-failure-during-the-great-depr...
- gradientsrneat 2y agoArticle claims USA/Europe no longer have crop reduction policies in place because "they know that producing more and exporting it brings greater benefits than reducing the amount produced." Japan's approach does indeed seem more controlling. Whether that's good or bad, I don't know. Edit: Article also says "western" countries subsidize farmers to protect them from price drops of oversupply.
- DoneWithAllThat 2y agoThey’re claiming…… tourism is the reason for increased demand? Seriously?
- mistrial9 2y agosounds like an emotional appeal to a political situation, not at all factual. Politics in practice are full of this (challenge - rearrange those four letters)
- sandworm101 2y agoMany are missing the cultural aspect. This isn't all about the government protecting the price. There is a second order issue. If the price dropped, Japanese farmers would react by reducing costs, by bringing in new tech and consolidating small farms into larger agri-businesses. Japan wants avoid the cultural changes that would bring to rural areas, areas that many believe to be the heart of Japanese culture.
- DataDaemon 2y agoSoon in Europe, only the protests stopped for a moment.
- abeppu 2y ago> A: People across the world say, "It's the best-tasting rice in the world, so why isn't more of it being exported?" Japanese agricultural officials often comment, "We can't compete with cheap rice produced in Thailand and elsewhere," but that's not the case. Just like you have luxury and standard cars, there are different kinds of rice. Luxury cars won't lose out to ordinary ones even if the price is higher. Totally not the point of this, but is Japanese rice really "the best-tasting"? Don't get me wrong, I enjoy California-produced Japanese-style short-grained varieties (I'm not sure whether I've bought actual Japanese-grown rice) -- in some applications. But sometimes you want a jasmine or a basmati or something else, and it seems like that's a matter of preference and what you're used to and what other food you're eating it with, more than "better" or "luxury".
- rasz 2y ago>Luxury cars won't lose out to ordinary ones even if the price is higher. meet Lexus LFA vs Corvette.
- georgeecollins 2y agoThat's a really interesting comparison because the LFA is such a good car. But the Corvette has much more brand equity because its been what it is longer than most of its buyers have been alive. The LFA just wasn't around long enough to build broad awareness. A closer comparison is 911 vs Corvette. You can always charge more for a 911, both cars have a ton of brand loyalty. The 911 is the Japanese rice, the Corvette is the California rice :)
- solarmist 2y ago"It's the best-tasting rice in the world" is typical Japanese hyperbole in the same way they brag about having four seasons. I'm sure it's excellent, but in the end, it's just rice. A blind taste test would be random noise. I sure can't remember there being a material different in the rice I ate in Japan vs good Japanese food in Cali. Hell, even if you included jasmine or basmati, I'll bet most western people wouldn't even be able to tell those apart from Japanese short-grained rice. Edit: western people
- herdrick 2y agoThere is no rice shortage in Japan currently, at least not in the sense of the word 'shortage' in economics. Prices are not held artificially low (they are influenced by the state in a market-friendly way through restrictions in supply), and so we see that rice is as available as ever, just at a higher price than last year.
- eriri 2y agoAvailable as ever? Here at Tokyo, rice aisles are literally empty right now in stores everywhere.
- herdrick 2y agoOh wow! Sorry about that. Empty aisles, i.e. a true shortage, only happens due to an artificially low price -- do you know what is holding the price down in this case? Perhaps price gouging laws? Or (misguided) big chain stores' policies against big price increases? I recommend little mom-and-pop stores. Typically they feel free to quietly charge a market-clearing price.
- bsder 2y ago> Empty aisles, i.e. a true shortage, only happens due to an artificially low price That's not true due to Always Late Inventory(tm). See: Covid and toilet paper in the US. Because inventory is optimized to almost nothing, a demand shock can strip the shelves (the last remaining point of inventory) before pricing can adjust. Super-optimization means that supply has very little ability to increase and it would take many months to backfill the drained edge inventory. Prices shoot up, but don't actually make a dent as there is enough inelastic demand to always drain the incremental inventory resupply. Add in the fact that a harvest is a specific point in time while consumption is continuous and it's really easy to wind up in a shortage situation that takes a remarkably long time to correct.
- knowitnone 2y agothis article is completely bogus. there is no shortage. this was done on purpose via government policy
- tjpnz 2y agoWife bought a big bag of white rice yesterday. You can still find it although not necessarily at big supermarkets.