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I just left a version of this in another thread—I live in Phoenix and now take Waymo regularly, and it seems like we're close to a world in which most people ta

I just left a version of this in another thread—I live in Phoenix and now take Waymo regularly, and it seems like we're close to a world in which most people take self-driving cars most of the time, crash rates plummet, and these kinds of articles come to resemble articles from 1910 about horse-related problems. Humans suck at driving: https://jakeseliger.com/2019/12/16/maybe-cars-are-just-really-bad-but-theyre-normal-so-we-dont-pay-attention-to-how-bad/ https://jakeseliger.com/2019/12/16/maybe-cars-are-just-reall... Waymos avoid many of the Uber challenges: foul-smelling "air fresheners," dubious music / talk radio choices, etc.

titanomachy 2y ago
In the same vein, I don't ride uber often but when I do I often find that drivers leave their windows closed and car's air circulation turned off completely. When I ask for "a bit of airflow" they apparently hear it as "I'm too hot", so they turn AC to maximum power. I'm not sure whether this reflects their own preferences, what they think customers want, or if they are just completely oblivious.
- okdood64 2y ago
  I have never had trouble cracking open the window on my own. Do you not try?
  - seanmcdirmid 2y ago
    The child safety disable is often turned on for backseat windows.
- nullc 2y ago
  Don't be too timid to tell them what you want. If they turn out the AC to max instead, just say "Sorry, I'm not hot I just want some fresh air."
harmmonica 2y ago
I've said this on HN before as well, but I've turned into a full-on Waymo evangelist (Los Angeles user here). Couple of things to add to Jake's comment... The driving experience itself is on par with the "best" drivers I've ever ridden with (things like stopping at actual stop signs, for instance, and not racing from one traffic light to the next, and being courteous to bikes and pedestrians), not to mention just the peace and tranquility of being in a car solo when you're not having to drive (I know, I know, mass transit is better for countless reasons and this is actually doubling down on human isolation which is probably not great long term). Anyway, I have zero interest in getting into an Uber at this point. I'd wait longer and pay more for a Waymo if given the choice. And I'm fully aware people will, if this works more broadly, lose jobs bc of it. I'm not insensitive to that, but I don't think the genie is going back in the bottle barring catastrophic incidents by Waymo et al that cause regulators to kill self-driving cars altogether. Note that I did witness an incident where on a road with no lane markings the Waymo straddled a left turn "lane" and a straight-travel lane. It's an intersection I transit often and normal drivers have great trouble with and frankly makes me uneasy every time I turn left there as well. The Waymo was definitely perplexed by it. For those who talk about how Phoenix's roads are straight and wide... This is not true in Los Angeles (nor in SF though SF is more of a compact grid than LA). For those of you unfamiliar, a lot of the streets in LA where Waymo operates today are very narrow, with cars parked on both sides and so there's inadequate room for two cars to go down them without waiting for another car to pass. These same streets have zero lane markings on them. I've experienced this several times in Waymo to date where the car just "gets it," though it's almost too cautious when it needs to get over to let another car pass when there's not enough space for both. And if you read all of that and say "what about the weather?" It's obviously an issue and I fully agree it will delay the rollout "everywhere." All that said, I cannot wait until I can jump in one of these things, from Waymo or any other company, and safely go up to the mountains or some other road-trip destination. The economics of longer trips, particularly to rural areas, are likely tricky bc of the inability to count on a return fare, but, man, I do think self-driving cars are a radically important technology that will vastly change how we transit and, really, how we live. That is, if they don't fuck up too much en route to getting there.
- ianstormtaylor 2y ago
hnav 2y ago
The olfactory problem with waymos is that if someone gets in one dirty or foul smelling there isn't a driver to kick them out. Waymos are starting to get more ridership and some of those people are going to be absolute pigs. I gave feedback to Waymo about a recent ride where the entire car smelled like a fat, unwashed ass and the best case scenario there is that they took the car out of rotation immediately, the rider right before me left it that way and that the rider will be identified after several instances of those reports. The reality is probably that the car picked up several riders after me until one reported a problem mid-ride.
- hypothesis 2y ago
  > I gave feedback to Waymo about a recent ride where the entire car smelled like a fat, unwashed ass Knowing BigCo reputation, I think it’s equally possible that Waymo and/or BigCo accounts will be banned for actual perp, complainant or random rider in-between… what a world…
  - 83 2y ago
    Wouldn't take long before that gets abused I bet. I'm picturing a world where someone knows their ex uses Waymo to get home every day so requests rides around that time/place so they can report them as odorous/damaged/vomit/etc and get the prior rider banned.
- mavhc 2y ago
  Need to add some smell sensors to the inside of the car, as well as the cameras
  - coolspot 2y ago
    They do have always on cameras inside.
codexb 2y ago
Maybe if you're under 25 and have always lived in a dense city this seems like a valid take. Taxis aren't new, they have always existed. Just because they're driven by computers now isn't going to magically change all the reasons that people didn't use them before (hint: it wasn't because they were driven by humans). No one with kids wants to ride in taxis with kids all the time. Ditto for anyone with hobbies that require transporting large things, like kayaks, bikes, etc. Or people with large pets. Or grocery shopping for more than 1-2 people. Or any of the dozens of other conveniences that Americans have come to expect from owning a car over the past century.
- spiderice 2y ago
  I have kids and don't like Taxis, but I'm not sure I entirely agree with your take. The idea of a humanless Taxi showing up to my house sounds way more appealing to me. I can take my time to get car seats in and kids buckled, without feeling the pressure to hurry from the human driver. I don't have to feel like my kids misbehaving are going to annoy a human driver, or get me a bad review in Uber/Lyft. I don't have to worry about tipping, or the driver taking a longer route to charge me more. I don't have to worry about small-talk, or awkwardly sitting in silence when I normally would be talking with those I'm driving with. Obviously this doesn't cover all use cases for a car (pretty sure you can't load a kayak onto a Waymo because you'd block sensors), but it seems WAY better to me as someone who doesn't like to deal with the people aspect of Taxis.
  - codetrotter 2y ago
    > I don't have to worry about tipping I can almost guarantee that if they don’t already, the robo-taxis will eventually start asking for tips. This is already the case at self-checkout in some stores for example. As long as the companies can get away with it, they will tack on any number of extra fees and charges even if those fees and charges really don’t make any sense. Hell, even tipping people does not really make sense the way it works in some places. A person working for a company should receive enough pay from the company itself that they don’t have to actually rely on tips in order to make enough money to survive. Tips should be a nice extra that customers willingly add because of good service. Not a forced extra percentage that they have to pay on every transaction just so that the company can pay less to their employees.
fragmede 2y ago
After two of my (women) friends were assaulted by Uber/Lyft drivers, a weird smell is the least of my fears. If I'm sending someone on a ride late a night, Waymo's lack of driver is a huge reason to prefer them over Uber/Lyft. But only if the destination is in a safe neighborhood. A human driver's going to be able to make a better assessment of if it's safe to let someone off somewhere, vs Waymos will randomly drop you off blocks away from your destination. As far as humans suck at driving, it's not that they suck on average, but that the ones who do suck at it don't always have a sticker saying that they suck.
- hossbeast 2y ago
  It is also that they suck on average.
  - saalweachter 2y ago
    Also, the really fantastic ones will be excellent for years and years, and then one day they're slightly sleepy.
    - atlasunshrugged 2y ago
      Or get a text and get distracted at just the wrong time
      - galdosdi 2y ago
        These days to qualify as excellent you need good phone discipline. Eg, turn off the phone or turn off notifications, even vibrations. Or at least make a strict rule to ignore it while moving and only look while fully stopped, eg at a stoplight although that's just decent driver grade not excellent driver, because of the temptation the notification will present each time. A great driver also reviews the route for a couple of minutes before leaving in order to reduce reliance on GPS-- you still use GPS but because it's not the first time you've seen the material, already know the shape of the route, and just need reminders to encourage you you're on the right track, the GPS will genuinely steal far less attention. The two minutes will be well spent, and may save lots of time, because it vastly reduces the likelihood of wrong turns.
nullc 2y ago
Humans are astonishingly and unreasonably good at driving. There are, indeed, a lot of traffic deaths but this is because we drive a mind-boggling amount so even a very low rate of fatalities adds up to a substantial number. A significant portion of traffic deaths also occur in special conditions-- at night, with intoxicated persons, in bad weather. Existing self driving cars won't even drive in those more difficult conditions. In terms of the passenger miles driven if you compare to non-intoxicate humans the expected number of deaths for self driving cars is still below 1 if they were as safe as non-intoxicated human drivers. Safer cars are an excellent goal but they're not automatically a given result for self driving. > Waymos avoid many of the Uber challenges: foul-smelling "air fresheners," dubious music / talk radio choices, etc. And introduces new ones like being dropped off blocks from your destination because the car refuses to drive on perfectly fine roads, service being unavailable in poor weather, and extending Google's tracking of everything you do online to offline. :D Aside, you can just ask uber drivers to turn off the radio.
- tzs 2y ago
  > Humans are astonishingly and unreasonably good at driving. There are, indeed, a lot of traffic deaths but this is because we drive a mind-boggling amount so even a very low rate of fatalities adds up to a substantial number To put some numbers on it in the US cars are driven about 3.2 x 10^12 miles per year, and around 4 x 10^4 people are killed in car accidents (drivers, passengers, pedestrians, and cyclists). That's one death per 8 x 10^7 miles. There are around 2 x 10^6 people non-fatally injured in car accidents per year in the US. That's an injury every 1.6 x 10^6 miles. There are around 4 x 10^6 non-injury car accidents per year in the US, which is one every 8 x 10^5 miles. If we assume all miles driving are equally risky and that we drive 40 miles per day 365 days a year, then we would expect to be in a non-injury car accident around once every 55 years, be injured in a car accident around once every 110 years, and be killed in a car accident around once every 5500 years. Of course almost no one drives all their miles at times and in conditions when the risk per mile is average so when estimating your personal risk you need to take that into account.
  - jogjayr 2y ago
arconis987 2y ago
I live in SF, and I take it daily. It's cheaper than paying for the parking garage near the office. And it's cheaper than Uber: the base rate is similar to Uber's, but there is no need to add a tip. Waymo sometimes does weird, unexpected things - but safely. Once it seemed to change its mind about the optimal route a few times over the course of 10 seconds, switching safely between two lanes back and forth a few times before committing. It used its turn signal fine, and the lanes were clear, so it wasn't a problem, but this isn't something humans do. Sometimes it behaves oddly, but I have developed confidence that it will do those odd things safely.
- Staple_Diet 2y ago
  >Once it seemed to change its mind about the optimal route a few times over the course of 10 seconds, switching safely between two lanes back and forth a few times before committing. It used its turn signal fine, and the lanes were clear, so it wasn't a problem, but this isn't something humans do. Oh, I disagree, this is something I observe and in fact do myself quite a lot. We all run it through our minds which route might be the quickest spending on certain factors. The difference is Waymo (or any tech) will base this on actual data (i.e., getting there quicker) vs humans who will be more emotionally driven (i.e., frustration at the driver in front, wanting to take the more scenic route, being undecided about stopping at that cafe halfway). I'm all for self driving in highly populated areas. In a perfect world I'd like to see it integrated into all vehicles, and when entering specific areas you are told your car will enter self-driving mode. Arguably this makes the most business sense for Waymo, licence the underlying tech to manufacturers that already have capacity to produce vehicles vs compete.
  - Ratelman 2y ago
    Agreed on this - think wayve is attempting this - building out the tech to license to manufacturers. Honestly makes the most sense and love the idea that all cars can have this and take over driving in specific areas.
  - galdosdi 2y ago
    Yes, but switching back and forth multiple times? I admit to having done even this before too, but I certainly didn't feel proud of myself after. A really good human driver would avoid this kind of conduct by having a (just slight) bias towards decision "stickiness" to avoid looking silly. This isn't purely aesthetic-- looking silly or bizarre, even if technically safe and legal and effecient, in your driving behavior can attract police attention (not a concern for self driving I suppose). That said I admit if these are the kinds of complaints we are discussing, as opposed to the kinds Uber attracted (like running a woman over in Nevada), Waymo must be doing pretty well. These are nitpicks to gradually address, not fundamental issues. Kudos to waymo, it was always obvious they were nearly the only player seriously trying
andyjohnson0 2y ago
> I live in Phoenix and now take Waymo regularly, and it seems like we're close to a world in which most people take self-driving cars most of the time I live in a big city (larger population than Phoenix) in the Uk and I've never even seen a self-driving car. Anywhere. I don't even think such a thing exists on public roads in my country. That Gibson quote about the future not being evenly distributed, etc. Just a data-point.
- tialaramex 2y ago
  Waymo is basically unique in offering Level 4 Self Driving (hence this article) and they only do this in a small number of locations in the US, such as (parts of) Phoenix - so, yes, you're correct that in the UK, or indeed anywhere outside of those few locations, there aren't real "Self Driving" cars. You won't know if people have Level 3 "Self Driving" cars because unlike Level 4, the Level 3 cars always have a human sat in the driving seat, it's just that maybe the human isn't paying attention and maybe the car is driving anyway. It may be difficult to gauge (beyond guessing) how many people you see are bad drivers and how many aren't actually driving at all under L3... L1 (the machine does some of the work but a human driver is always doing much of the driving) is certainly something you see and don't even think about. Intelligent Cruise control (ie it won't smack into the car ahead but instead slow down) on a motorway, maybe automatic lane keeping on somebody's fancier or newer car, it's not "Self driving" as you'd understand it, but it's something. The way these "Levels" work is L3 to L4 is the point where we transition from "The human is legally driving but the machine is offering more and more assistance" to "The machine is legally driving and the human is asked less and less often to do anything at all". As a result a person who is literally blind and thus couldn't possible drive the car or obtain a license to do so - can (and they do) use a Waymo, just like they'd use an Uber, but they cannot do the same with Tesla "Full Self Driving".
  - nradov 2y ago
    There are only a handful of Level 3 autonomous driving systems in existence. The Mercedes-Benz Drive Pilot system illuminates exterior turquoise lights to indicate when it's active so you don't have to guess who is driving. I'm not sure whether Drive Pilot is available in the UK yet. https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/technology/mercedes-use-turquoise-lights-self-driving-cars https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/technology/mercedes-use-t...
HeyTomesei 2y ago
I disagree. Phoenix has the perfect climate for self-driving cars. It will require a major technological leap in order for them to succeed in the "real world" (fog, rain, snow, etc).
- boulos 2y ago
  Disclosure: I work for Waymo. We handle both dense fog and heavy rain on the latest vehicles. The best blog post is probably https://waymo.com/blog/2021/11/a-fog-blog/ https://waymo.com/blog/2021/11/a-fog-blog/ but you can find a lot of videos in the rain. Snow and very cold weather is a challenge for sensor cleaning. We've done some testing in both NYC and Buffalo (https://waymo.com/blog/2023/11/road-trip-how-our-cross-country-testing-helps-advance-the-waymo-driver/ https://waymo.com/blog/2023/11/road-trip-how-our-cross-count...) to collect data.
  - 83 2y ago
    I'm rooting for you, but I live in snow country and always have a chuckle any time someone says self driving will be ready soon. There's so many situations that need to be handled when driving in winter and some of them I can't even imagine how you'd address in software. Winter here changes daily between - no road lines visible - snow packed into ice randomly making the road a a camouflage pattern - snow is fresh/deep so no road is visible and you navigate based on the slight hump in the snow where you know there's a curb - same as above, but instead of a curb a slight indent where there's a ditch - slush piles outside the tire lanes, which if hit will suck you in or cause you to spin out - ice/snow on hills, so time your arrival for rolling stops at intersections because stopping is not an option - active snowfall (limited camera vision, and I'm guessing reduced/useless signal from lidar) - hail - sporadic black ice (its easy to slow down when its icy everywhere, but knowing when and where black ice is likely when it's sporadic is a skill) - the "lanes" formed by peoples tires in the snow often don't align with the official road, and sometimes a lane goes missing in this situation And all that's after you deal with sensor cleaning.
    - SoftTalker 2y ago

titanomachy 2y ago

In the same vein, I don't ride uber often but when I do I often find that drivers leave their windows closed and car's air circulation turned off completely. When I ask for "a bit of airflow" they apparently hear it as "I'm too hot", so they turn AC to maximum power. I'm not sure whether this reflects their own preferences, what they think customers want, or if they are just completely oblivious.

okdood64 2y ago
I have never had trouble cracking open the window on my own. Do you not try?
- seanmcdirmid 2y ago
  The child safety disable is often turned on for backseat windows.
nullc 2y ago
Don't be too timid to tell them what you want. If they turn out the AC to max instead, just say "Sorry, I'm not hot I just want some fresh air."

harmmonica 2y ago

I've said this on HN before as well, but I've turned into a full-on Waymo evangelist (Los Angeles user here). Couple of things to add to Jake's comment... The driving experience itself is on par with the "best" drivers I've ever ridden with (things like stopping at actual stop signs, for instance, and not racing from one traffic light to the next, and being courteous to bikes and pedestrians), not to mention just the peace and tranquility of being in a car solo when you're not having to drive (I know, I know, mass transit is better for countless reasons and this is actually doubling down on human isolation which is probably not great long term). Anyway, I have zero interest in getting into an Uber at this point. I'd wait longer and pay more for a Waymo if given the choice. And I'm fully aware people will, if this works more broadly, lose jobs bc of it. I'm not insensitive to that, but I don't think the genie is going back in the bottle barring catastrophic incidents by Waymo et al that cause regulators to kill self-driving cars altogether. Note that I did witness an incident where on a road with no lane markings the Waymo straddled a left turn "lane" and a straight-travel lane. It's an intersection I transit often and normal drivers have great trouble with and frankly makes me uneasy every time I turn left there as well. The Waymo was definitely perplexed by it. For those who talk about how Phoenix's roads are straight and wide... This is not true in Los Angeles (nor in SF though SF is more of a compact grid than LA). For those of you unfamiliar, a lot of the streets in LA where Waymo operates today are very narrow, with cars parked on both sides and so there's inadequate room for two cars to go down them without waiting for another car to pass. These same streets have zero lane markings on them. I've experienced this several times in Waymo to date where the car just "gets it," though it's almost too cautious when it needs to get over to let another car pass when there's not enough space for both. And if you read all of that and say "what about the weather?" It's obviously an issue and I fully agree it will delay the rollout "everywhere." All that said, I cannot wait until I can jump in one of these things, from Waymo or any other company, and safely go up to the mountains or some other road-trip destination. The economics of longer trips, particularly to rural areas, are likely tricky bc of the inability to count on a return fare, but, man, I do think self-driving cars are a radically important technology that will vastly change how we transit and, really, how we live. That is, if they don't fuck up too much en route to getting there.

ianstormtaylor 2y ago

hnav 2y ago

The olfactory problem with waymos is that if someone gets in one dirty or foul smelling there isn't a driver to kick them out. Waymos are starting to get more ridership and some of those people are going to be absolute pigs. I gave feedback to Waymo about a recent ride where the entire car smelled like a fat, unwashed ass and the best case scenario there is that they took the car out of rotation immediately, the rider right before me left it that way and that the rider will be identified after several instances of those reports. The reality is probably that the car picked up several riders after me until one reported a problem mid-ride.

hypothesis 2y ago
> I gave feedback to Waymo about a recent ride where the entire car smelled like a fat, unwashed ass Knowing BigCo reputation, I think it’s equally possible that Waymo and/or BigCo accounts will be banned for actual perp, complainant or random rider in-between… what a world…
- 83 2y ago
  Wouldn't take long before that gets abused I bet. I'm picturing a world where someone knows their ex uses Waymo to get home every day so requests rides around that time/place so they can report them as odorous/damaged/vomit/etc and get the prior rider banned.
mavhc 2y ago
Need to add some smell sensors to the inside of the car, as well as the cameras
- coolspot 2y ago
  They do have always on cameras inside.

codexb 2y ago

Maybe if you're under 25 and have always lived in a dense city this seems like a valid take. Taxis aren't new, they have always existed. Just because they're driven by computers now isn't going to magically change all the reasons that people didn't use them before (hint: it wasn't because they were driven by humans). No one with kids wants to ride in taxis with kids all the time. Ditto for anyone with hobbies that require transporting large things, like kayaks, bikes, etc. Or people with large pets. Or grocery shopping for more than 1-2 people. Or any of the dozens of other conveniences that Americans have come to expect from owning a car over the past century.

spiderice 2y ago
I have kids and don't like Taxis, but I'm not sure I entirely agree with your take. The idea of a humanless Taxi showing up to my house sounds way more appealing to me. I can take my time to get car seats in and kids buckled, without feeling the pressure to hurry from the human driver. I don't have to feel like my kids misbehaving are going to annoy a human driver, or get me a bad review in Uber/Lyft. I don't have to worry about tipping, or the driver taking a longer route to charge me more. I don't have to worry about small-talk, or awkwardly sitting in silence when I normally would be talking with those I'm driving with. Obviously this doesn't cover all use cases for a car (pretty sure you can't load a kayak onto a Waymo because you'd block sensors), but it seems WAY better to me as someone who doesn't like to deal with the people aspect of Taxis.
- codetrotter 2y ago
  > I don't have to worry about tipping I can almost guarantee that if they don’t already, the robo-taxis will eventually start asking for tips. This is already the case at self-checkout in some stores for example. As long as the companies can get away with it, they will tack on any number of extra fees and charges even if those fees and charges really don’t make any sense. Hell, even tipping people does not really make sense the way it works in some places. A person working for a company should receive enough pay from the company itself that they don’t have to actually rely on tips in order to make enough money to survive. Tips should be a nice extra that customers willingly add because of good service. Not a forced extra percentage that they have to pay on every transaction just so that the company can pay less to their employees.

fragmede 2y ago

After two of my (women) friends were assaulted by Uber/Lyft drivers, a weird smell is the least of my fears. If I'm sending someone on a ride late a night, Waymo's lack of driver is a huge reason to prefer them over Uber/Lyft. But only if the destination is in a safe neighborhood. A human driver's going to be able to make a better assessment of if it's safe to let someone off somewhere, vs Waymos will randomly drop you off blocks away from your destination. As far as humans suck at driving, it's not that they suck on average, but that the ones who do suck at it don't always have a sticker saying that they suck.

hossbeast 2y ago
It is also that they suck on average.
- saalweachter 2y ago
  Also, the really fantastic ones will be excellent for years and years, and then one day they're slightly sleepy.
  - atlasunshrugged 2y ago
    Or get a text and get distracted at just the wrong time
    - galdosdi 2y ago
      These days to qualify as excellent you need good phone discipline. Eg, turn off the phone or turn off notifications, even vibrations. Or at least make a strict rule to ignore it while moving and only look while fully stopped, eg at a stoplight although that's just decent driver grade not excellent driver, because of the temptation the notification will present each time. A great driver also reviews the route for a couple of minutes before leaving in order to reduce reliance on GPS-- you still use GPS but because it's not the first time you've seen the material, already know the shape of the route, and just need reminders to encourage you you're on the right track, the GPS will genuinely steal far less attention. The two minutes will be well spent, and may save lots of time, because it vastly reduces the likelihood of wrong turns.

nullc 2y ago

Humans are astonishingly and unreasonably good at driving. There are, indeed, a lot of traffic deaths but this is because we drive a mind-boggling amount so even a very low rate of fatalities adds up to a substantial number. A significant portion of traffic deaths also occur in special conditions-- at night, with intoxicated persons, in bad weather. Existing self driving cars won't even drive in those more difficult conditions. In terms of the passenger miles driven if you compare to non-intoxicate humans the expected number of deaths for self driving cars is still below 1 if they were as safe as non-intoxicated human drivers. Safer cars are an excellent goal but they're not automatically a given result for self driving. > Waymos avoid many of the Uber challenges: foul-smelling "air fresheners," dubious music / talk radio choices, etc. And introduces new ones like being dropped off blocks from your destination because the car refuses to drive on perfectly fine roads, service being unavailable in poor weather, and extending Google's tracking of everything you do online to offline. :D Aside, you can just ask uber drivers to turn off the radio.

tzs 2y ago
> Humans are astonishingly and unreasonably good at driving. There are, indeed, a lot of traffic deaths but this is because we drive a mind-boggling amount so even a very low rate of fatalities adds up to a substantial number To put some numbers on it in the US cars are driven about 3.2 x 10^12 miles per year, and around 4 x 10^4 people are killed in car accidents (drivers, passengers, pedestrians, and cyclists). That's one death per 8 x 10^7 miles. There are around 2 x 10^6 people non-fatally injured in car accidents per year in the US. That's an injury every 1.6 x 10^6 miles. There are around 4 x 10^6 non-injury car accidents per year in the US, which is one every 8 x 10^5 miles. If we assume all miles driving are equally risky and that we drive 40 miles per day 365 days a year, then we would expect to be in a non-injury car accident around once every 55 years, be injured in a car accident around once every 110 years, and be killed in a car accident around once every 5500 years. Of course almost no one drives all their miles at times and in conditions when the risk per mile is average so when estimating your personal risk you need to take that into account.
- jogjayr 2y ago

arconis987 2y ago

I live in SF, and I take it daily. It's cheaper than paying for the parking garage near the office. And it's cheaper than Uber: the base rate is similar to Uber's, but there is no need to add a tip. Waymo sometimes does weird, unexpected things - but safely. Once it seemed to change its mind about the optimal route a few times over the course of 10 seconds, switching safely between two lanes back and forth a few times before committing. It used its turn signal fine, and the lanes were clear, so it wasn't a problem, but this isn't something humans do. Sometimes it behaves oddly, but I have developed confidence that it will do those odd things safely.

Staple_Diet 2y ago
>Once it seemed to change its mind about the optimal route a few times over the course of 10 seconds, switching safely between two lanes back and forth a few times before committing. It used its turn signal fine, and the lanes were clear, so it wasn't a problem, but this isn't something humans do. Oh, I disagree, this is something I observe and in fact do myself quite a lot. We all run it through our minds which route might be the quickest spending on certain factors. The difference is Waymo (or any tech) will base this on actual data (i.e., getting there quicker) vs humans who will be more emotionally driven (i.e., frustration at the driver in front, wanting to take the more scenic route, being undecided about stopping at that cafe halfway). I'm all for self driving in highly populated areas. In a perfect world I'd like to see it integrated into all vehicles, and when entering specific areas you are told your car will enter self-driving mode. Arguably this makes the most business sense for Waymo, licence the underlying tech to manufacturers that already have capacity to produce vehicles vs compete.
- Ratelman 2y ago
  Agreed on this - think wayve is attempting this - building out the tech to license to manufacturers. Honestly makes the most sense and love the idea that all cars can have this and take over driving in specific areas.
- galdosdi 2y ago
  Yes, but switching back and forth multiple times? I admit to having done even this before too, but I certainly didn't feel proud of myself after. A really good human driver would avoid this kind of conduct by having a (just slight) bias towards decision "stickiness" to avoid looking silly. This isn't purely aesthetic-- looking silly or bizarre, even if technically safe and legal and effecient, in your driving behavior can attract police attention (not a concern for self driving I suppose). That said I admit if these are the kinds of complaints we are discussing, as opposed to the kinds Uber attracted (like running a woman over in Nevada), Waymo must be doing pretty well. These are nitpicks to gradually address, not fundamental issues. Kudos to waymo, it was always obvious they were nearly the only player seriously trying

andyjohnson0 2y ago

> I live in Phoenix and now take Waymo regularly, and it seems like we're close to a world in which most people take self-driving cars most of the time I live in a big city (larger population than Phoenix) in the Uk and I've never even seen a self-driving car. Anywhere. I don't even think such a thing exists on public roads in my country. That Gibson quote about the future not being evenly distributed, etc. Just a data-point.

tialaramex 2y ago
Waymo is basically unique in offering Level 4 Self Driving (hence this article) and they only do this in a small number of locations in the US, such as (parts of) Phoenix - so, yes, you're correct that in the UK, or indeed anywhere outside of those few locations, there aren't real "Self Driving" cars. You won't know if people have Level 3 "Self Driving" cars because unlike Level 4, the Level 3 cars always have a human sat in the driving seat, it's just that maybe the human isn't paying attention and maybe the car is driving anyway. It may be difficult to gauge (beyond guessing) how many people you see are bad drivers and how many aren't actually driving at all under L3... L1 (the machine does some of the work but a human driver is always doing much of the driving) is certainly something you see and don't even think about. Intelligent Cruise control (ie it won't smack into the car ahead but instead slow down) on a motorway, maybe automatic lane keeping on somebody's fancier or newer car, it's not "Self driving" as you'd understand it, but it's something. The way these "Levels" work is L3 to L4 is the point where we transition from "The human is legally driving but the machine is offering more and more assistance" to "The machine is legally driving and the human is asked less and less often to do anything at all". As a result a person who is literally blind and thus couldn't possible drive the car or obtain a license to do so - can (and they do) use a Waymo, just like they'd use an Uber, but they cannot do the same with Tesla "Full Self Driving".
- nradov 2y ago
  There are only a handful of Level 3 autonomous driving systems in existence. The Mercedes-Benz Drive Pilot system illuminates exterior turquoise lights to indicate when it's active so you don't have to guess who is driving. I'm not sure whether Drive Pilot is available in the UK yet. https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/technology/mercedes-use-turquoise-lights-self-driving-cars https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/technology/mercedes-use-t...

HeyTomesei 2y ago

I disagree. Phoenix has the perfect climate for self-driving cars. It will require a major technological leap in order for them to succeed in the "real world" (fog, rain, snow, etc).

boulos 2y ago
Disclosure: I work for Waymo. We handle both dense fog and heavy rain on the latest vehicles. The best blog post is probably https://waymo.com/blog/2021/11/a-fog-blog/ https://waymo.com/blog/2021/11/a-fog-blog/ but you can find a lot of videos in the rain. Snow and very cold weather is a challenge for sensor cleaning. We've done some testing in both NYC and Buffalo (https://waymo.com/blog/2023/11/road-trip-how-our-cross-country-testing-helps-advance-the-waymo-driver/ https://waymo.com/blog/2023/11/road-trip-how-our-cross-count...) to collect data.
- 83 2y ago
  I'm rooting for you, but I live in snow country and always have a chuckle any time someone says self driving will be ready soon. There's so many situations that need to be handled when driving in winter and some of them I can't even imagine how you'd address in software. Winter here changes daily between - no road lines visible - snow packed into ice randomly making the road a a camouflage pattern - snow is fresh/deep so no road is visible and you navigate based on the slight hump in the snow where you know there's a curb - same as above, but instead of a curb a slight indent where there's a ditch - slush piles outside the tire lanes, which if hit will suck you in or cause you to spin out - ice/snow on hills, so time your arrival for rolling stops at intersections because stopping is not an option - active snowfall (limited camera vision, and I'm guessing reduced/useless signal from lidar) - hail - sporadic black ice (its easy to slow down when its icy everywhere, but knowing when and where black ice is likely when it's sporadic is a skill) - the "lanes" formed by peoples tires in the snow often don't align with the official road, and sometimes a lane goes missing in this situation And all that's after you deal with sensor cleaning.
  - SoftTalker 2y ago