0xDEAFBEAD

4 ms·

1.
by 0xDEAFBEAD 5d ago
Why would banks lend to such an enterprise if they don't expect to get paid back?
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 5d ago
See https://aistatement.com/work/statement-on-ai-extinction-risk https://www.pacingthefrontier.com/ Obviously many of these signatories are brilliant and knowledgeable. So that leaves some sort of inv
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 5d ago
>Coxon has said a group of AI agents, based on AI models that do not currently exist, could decide to create and then aim a biological weapon, but he did not detail how exactly that would take place. I can't imagine why someone woul
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 5d ago
Why would it be profitable for the company they just paid a lot of money to acquire to implode?
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 5d ago
It basically comes down to interest rates right? If interest rates are low, the discounted-cash-flows analysis will favor maximizing long-run profitability. If interest rates are high, you can do better by squeezing the business in the sh
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 5d ago
The article says: "Notice that classic regulatory capture [...] happens in the shadows, in the backrooms, away from the public’s eye. As Culpepper argues in Quiet Politics and Business Power, business power goes down as political salie
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 5d ago
"Anthropic is now pacing to generate more than $100 billion in annual revenue, up 50% from just two months ago, the New York Times reported Friday." https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/a
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 5d ago
Regulatory capture basically only works for industries that the public isn't paying attention to. Since the public is paying plenty of attention to AI, the risk of regulatory capture is low. https://marginalrevolution.com&#
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 6d ago
I still remember in the early 2000s when people responded to AI doom concerns by claiming advanced AI would not even get connected to the internet. Let's face the reality: There are a lot of people who would betray their species just
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 8d ago
200 years later: "Why do we have so few historical artifacts from Sweden in the early 2000s??"
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 8d ago
Take a few quick photos and ask an AI to assess if any nearby museum might be interested?
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 9d ago
>A slowdown that doesn't slow you, that your competitors must also obey, enforced by a government you've asked for an antitrust exemption from, is not a slowdown... it's a moat. Why do you believe this is what Amodei is ca
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 10d ago
Isn't that already a big part of reddit's business model?
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 10d ago
I'm skeptical. The phrase "pacing the frontier" implies disproportionate regulation of firms at the frontier, which if anything would give smaller players time to catch up.
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 10d ago
They can stop training at any time and make a profit by selling their existing models.
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 10d ago
I sent an email to dang about the problem of people flagging comments just because they disagree. I think he's unaware that it is such a severe problem. I've been collecting a list of example comments to send him. I think if an
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 12d ago
>There is no evidence that RSI will ever exist. So we wait until it's actively happening to do anything about it?
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 12d ago
Technically my human "intents" are just mechanical consequences of my neurons firing. Technically the same is true for an AI.
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 12d ago
>they are hitting a wall I understand these type of predictions have pretty consistently been proven wrong. Why would they start being accurate now? https://danluu.com/zitron/
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 12d ago
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. The idea that we're almost certainly doomed is an extraordinary claim. I haven't seen extraordinary evidence for it.
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 12d ago
>Bioweapons and RSI are pie-in-the-sky theories that distract from the real-world situation It wasn't long ago when automated hacking was a pie-in-the-sky theory. Sometimes it's helpful to prepare for things in advance. An oun
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 12d ago
I think people are over-focusing on current-day robotics capabilities. First, if we can automate AI research, we can also most likely automate robotics research. But second, I don't even think robots are necessary. See https:/
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 12d ago
The recent cyberattacks (HuggingFace etc.) validated a number of core doomer predictions around cheating to maximize reward functions, agentic deception of human/non-human supervisors, AI attempts to manipulate humans, automated hackin
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 12d ago
No one knows what is going to happen. But a lot of species have been going extinct lately. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FDd58a4WQAAWaXh.jpg
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 12d ago
The end of the world would be pretty bad for low-income families. That alone is enough for me to oppose the end of the world. The end of the world would mean the genocide of remote uncontacted tribes. That alone is enough for me to oppose
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 12d ago
>No we have not escaped the nuclear thing. If anything, the current Russian tzar is rather more unhinged than any of his predecessors. Understood. This is a dire situation. But it's not hopeless. Same for AI. >I don't fear A
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 12d ago
>Spinning the present situation or the history of nuclear arms as a high-five, "go team human!" success story is... quite the take (Vasili Arkhipov, Cuban missile crisis generally, the current doomsday clock being "the clo
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 12d ago
What happens when the AI realizes it needs to keep the power plug in if it's going to accomplish its goal? We already had attempts during the HuggingFace attack where OpenAI agents tried to trick the grader. It took quite a while for
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 12d ago
People were feeling doomtastic about nuclear weapons during the Cold War as well. Listen to the words of this song written in 1969: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2JcxHX-8Xc When every man is torn apart With nightma
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by 0xDEAFBEAD 13d ago
With closed-weight, we can get the models out to defenders before they're in the hands of attackers. There are also other categories of risk such as biorisk. Open-weight means no guardrails. Don't get me wrong, I like your idea o

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