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| TSMC lost the Chinese market, because their government went along headfirst with US trade war policy(similar to what Japan did in 1986, but worse in fact). T

| TSMC lost the Chinese market, because their government went along headfirst with US trade war policy(similar to what Japan did in 1986, but worse in fact). Taiwan is definitely caught between a rock and a hard place. They watched what happened in Hong Kong and no longer is interested in rejoining Xi’s China. So now they are threatened with invasion unless they rejoin China. They are reliant on the US to prevent that’s from happening. So given the choices, it’s not surprising that they are choosing the US to continue existing. It’s crazy to me that you haven’t see more divestments in China from Taiwanese companies.

sanxiyn 3y ago
China and Taiwan use the same language so China is still very attractive for oversea expansion for Taiwanese companies.
- baq 3y ago
  Ukraine and Russia also mostly speak the same language. Doesn’t mean much if the great leader decides to make a move, actually it is another reason to make a move.
  - Waterluvian 3y ago
    About 1/3 of Ukrainians know Russian.
    - voxic11 3y ago
      Ukrainian and Russian are mutually intelligible languages. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_intelligibility#Slavic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_intelligibility#Slavic Whereas different dialects of Mandarin may not be mutually intelligible > Many varieties of Mandarin, such as those of the Southwest (including Sichuanese) and the Lower Yangtze, are not mutually intelligible with the standard language https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandarin_Chinese https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandarin_Chinese
      - alisonatwork 3y ago
        The Mandarin used in Taiwan and the Mandarin used in China are both standard Chinese and mutually intelligible.
        foobarian 3y ago
        IIRC Cantonese and Mandarin are the two big language groups that are not mutually intelligible.
        gabagaul 3y ago
        But Cantonese isn’t spoken in Taiwan except a handful of Hong Kong immigrants. What’s your point?
        throwaway2990 3y ago
        But they do speak Taiwanese in Taiwan which you wouldn’t understand if you only spoke mandarin.
        alephnerd 3y ago
        > they do speak Taiwanese Do you mean Hakka and/or Hokkien? Hokkien which is primarily spoken across the strait in Fujian. Hakka is primarily spoken in Guangdong, Fujian, and Jiangxi. Xi himself was the Party head of Fujian for most of his career and Xi's father was the Party head of Guangdong when he was rehabilitated in the Deng Xiaoping era. This is why most manufacturing in China ended up coastal Southern China - most Chinese Taiwanese trace their heritage to there barely 2-5 generations ago at most. The younger generation (post-1989) in Taiwan speaks and understands Mandarin.
        alisonatwork 3y ago
        This whole thread has a bunch of answers which are confusing the topic. The issue is why would Taiwanese businesses care about the China market? Aside from the fact that the China market is massive, there is a simple answer: Taiwan and China have the same business language, and that is Standard Chinese aka Mandarin. Yes, lots of Taiwanese people also speak other Sinitic languages that are not Mandarin, and are not mutually intelligible with it. And lots of Chinese people also speak other Sinitic languages that are not Mandarin and are not mutually intelligible with it. And even some variants of Mandarin itself are not mutually intelligible. But - outside of Cantonese in HK and Macau - none of those languages are used as the primary business language anywhere in either China or Taiwan, so it's an interesting side note but doesn't change the point. All that said, aside from the Chinese market being massive, and the common language being convenient, there is a much bigger elephant in the room that explains why Taiwanese companies might not have a fun time doing business in China: politics. It doesn't matter how much money Taiwanese companies might want to make if the CCP can threaten to turn off the spigot any time they want to influence Taiwanese politics, which unfortunately nowadays appears to be all the time. Sure, it's leaving a lot of money on the table, but doing business with Japan or the US or other countries that aren't run as a single party dictatorship whose leadership has a stated platform of dismantling your own government might be a less risky option.
    - edgyquant 3y ago
      Around 1/3 are native speakers but the number of know Russian is significantly higher as it’s the formal business language the way English is in a lot of the world. Hard to find exact numbers, but according to Wikipedia a 2008 gallop poll had 80% of Ukrainians claim to prefer Russian as the language of business.
      - Waterluvian 3y ago
        Ahh TIL! Thanks.
      - tastyminerals2 3y ago
        Well, this is pretty much dated. You would be surprised to learn how the tables started to turn starting from 2014 and finished turning today.
        theultdev 3y ago
        Is this an anecdote of your experience or? 11 years does not seem like long enough time for a language to first start declining and then end as being the primary formal language.
        VincentEvans 3y ago
        It’s not “declining” but rather being actively replaced and rejected by the population. When your nation suffers brutal aggression perpetrated by the neighbor - it makes it no longer fashionable to speak the language of the aggressor. The fact that Russia also denies that Ukraine and Ukrainians are even a real nation and culture distinct from Russia fuels the sentiment too.
        vkou 3y ago
        Organically, no, 11 years is not long enough. But you may recall that in 2014, a few political directives regarding culture and language use have been made by the Rada, and then a few political decisions were made in the Kremlin, and then everything turned to shit (To put it simply). It's easy to do a lot in 11 years when you start banning foreign-language media, stop using a language for government services, stop teaching it, etc, etc.
    - ffgjgf1 3y ago
      In reality it’s certainly over 90% (probably closer to 99%)
      - 0x457 3y ago
        The only Ukrainians I've that that didn't speak Russian are 2nd gen immigrants outside of Ukraine. Often hilarious because their parents often barely speak Ukrainian themselves.
    - protomolecule 3y ago
      "83% of Ukrainians responding to a 2008 Gallup poll preferred to use Russian instead of Ukrainian to take the survey." [0] [0] https://web.archive.org/web/20100518073110/http://www.gallup.com/poll/109228/Russian-Language-Enjoying-Boost-PostSoviet-States.aspx https://web.archive.org/web/20100518073110/http://www.gallup...
- rjzzleep 3y ago
  Most of their construction material comes from China and most of Taiwanese exports go to China. Taiwan will never compete on the global market for most of its products. This current policy is economic suicide, and anyone not blinded by ideology knows it. Not a single US president pushed for a FTA with Taiwan. So far every single one has opposed it, while on the back bullying Taiwan to open their markets to dump cheap American pork into it, completely against the will of the Taiwanese people by the way. The current result is that Taiwanese wages have stagnated for decades and as a result save for a select few that go to Japan and the US, a lot of other people look for opportunities in Mainland China. What made Taiwan so successful in the past is what makes Dubai and Singapore so successful now. Open trade with everyone, and easy business opportunities. Both things that it no longer engages in. BTW the big joke nobody really seems to know is that the pro independence party has never submitted a bid for independence, while the pro China party has.
  - Xunjin 3y ago
    Why people keep believing that "open trade" solves everything and makes "easy business opportunities"? You can have open trade but also subsidy a portion of your economy to make that "open trade" not so open anymore. I'm not against it, just saying that a single specific decision makes Dubai and Singapore success is a reductionism that helps in nothing the discussion. Let take OPEC in matters, would you say they follow a "free trade" ideology?
  - berserk1010 3y ago
    Many wrong things with comments. Your pro-china KMT bias is showing > Taiwan will never compete on the global market for most of its products. the aggregate brand value of Taiwan's 25 largest brands totaled US$13.84 billion in 2023, a 5 percent rise from 2022 and marking the fourth consecutive year of the value surpassing the US$10 billion mark. https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202312020012 https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202312020012 > The current result is that Taiwanese wages have stagnated for decades The average annual salary for full-time employees in Taiwan reached an eight-year high of NT$694,000 (US$22,242) this year (2023). https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202311290017 https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202311290017 Taiwan to surpass Japan in GDP per capita this year (2023): JCER https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Taiwan-to-surpass-Japan-in-GDP-per-capita-this-year-JCER https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Taiwan-to-surpass-Japan-in-G...
- gpapilion 3y ago
  Taiwanese companies run most of the major hightech manufacturing in China. For example, Foxconn is a taiwanese company. Most of my dealings with these types of manufactures has been in discussions of how to circumvent tariffs, not in really exiting manufacturing in the mainland. When I look at what occurring, I think it has more to do with their cheapest labor force is in China. So the scale and profit is hard to leave.
  - aswanson 3y ago
    The Chinese labor force has been reaching parity recently. Hence pushes into Vietnam & India for manufacturing.
    - alephnerd 3y ago
      > Hence pushes into Vietnam & India for manufacturing. Doesn't help Taiwanese companies long term. They had an advantage in Mainland China being Chinese speaking. Already in India, Tata is becoming the Indian version of Foxconn for most manufacturers and VinGroup or Korean Chaebols like Lotte (SK has a FTA with Vietnam) the Vietnamese version of Foxconn in Vietnam. While South Korean and Japanese companies were actively de-risking in China by returning to ASEAN+India in the early-mid 2010s, Taiwanese companies only began doing this in the late 2010s after the 2015-16 recession.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  It’s more than that: most of the Taiwanese companies are owned/controlled by mainlanders who still have a lot more economic power than native Taiwanese, even if the latter has more political power these days.
mytailorisrich 3y ago
The Republic of China (aka Taiwan) had never any interests in effectively and finally surrendering to the communists on the mainland. The "threat of invasion" has been the case since 1949. The communists stopped and did not 'finish the job' because it was hard, because of a deal with the Nationalists, because they got distracted in Korea, whatever other plausible reasons. This has been the situation since. Interestingly this does not mean that the people, especially pro-KMT, are necessarily 'pro-US'. Those people are rooting for China but not for the communists and see the US as a necessary 'evil', so to speak.
- throwaway2474 3y ago
  There is an enormous amount of skepticism towards the US TSMC deal in Taiwan, in the sense that Tsai Ing-wen “sold out” Taiwanese IP and top engineers due to political pressure. And in fairness, the US does not have a strong track record wrt its overseas military shenanigans actually helping locals, to put it lightly. A lot of people in Taiwan are anti-CCP, but at the same time, not pro-US because they see the US as an untrustworthy or at least unreliable military ally.
  - semi-extrinsic 3y ago
    > And in fairness, the US does not have a strong track record wrt its overseas military shenanigans actually helping locals, to put it lightly. Furthermore the looming US presidential election is making people nervous even in countries that don't depend strongly on the US...
  - bee_rider 3y ago
    OTOH it seems fairly safe to build a TSMC factory in the US and loan us some engineers. I mean it isn’t as if we’re actually going to make the long term investments in the education of our people required to steal TSMC’s secrets.
  - throwaway2037 3y ago
    > There is an enormous amount of skepticism towards the US TSMC deal in Taiwan, in the sense that Tsai Ing-wen “sold out” Taiwanese IP and top engineers due to political pressure. I followed that story in the media for months. I never saw this sentiment. Can you share some sources? I couldn't find anything from mainstream media.
throwaway4good 3y ago
That is the story if you read western media but it is important to remember that there is a massive world outside the west where that story is turned on its head: Here the US is a frail aging empire that just cannot handle the peaceful rise of China, and the idea of it no being the top dog, and thus lashes out in an increasing desperate manner.
- noobermin 3y ago
  Speaking as someone who now lives in Singapore, this is not the universal view outside the west and the rise of China is perhaps not warlike in the invading territory sense but people are wary of them.
  - throwaway4good 3y ago
    Sorry - just to be clear - just as "Xi is an evil dictator" is common but not universal point of view in the west; the "US is a declining and aggressive empire" is a common but not universal point of view in the rest of the world.
- dangus 3y ago
  But that is its own form of exaggerated propaganda from the opposing side. In reality, America is playing on geopolitical easy mode and is essentially too big to fail. - It has vast natural resources, some like its oil surplus are resources that even China needs to import. - It has a vast, diverse economy that includes high representation in high-complexity high-value products like software, airplanes, and, yes, semiconductors (Intel manufactures 75% of their products in the US). - It is highly developed and highly educated with particular strength in higher education - It is essentially impossible to physically attack - It produces a crazy amount of food - Its multinational corporations own a large amount of foreign assets, with a banking system that is entangled with the rest of the world - It is close allies with basically everyone that matters except China and Russia, and arguably China is more dependent on the US than the US depends on China. - NAFTA countries are a huge strength to the US. The US now buys more from Mexico than China. - The world’s second largest military and navy are basically non-existent, and the US military is unmatched in logistics.
hnthrowaway0328 3y ago
Taiwan is basically "captured" by: 1) Being too close and too dependent on China mainland 2) Enjoying a huge amount of surplus with China (it overweights everything else combined, and almost doubled) IMO, there is really no point for China to invade Taiwan, even if Taiwan declares independence. The best move of China, when and if that happens, is to simply grab Jinmen and Mazu (the two small islands close to Xiamen), and then start a economic debacle of some sort. They don't even have to put up a physical debacle -- the only thing they need to do is to remove that surplus by removing all economic preferential policies. The best move for Taiwan, is always to be on the brink of independence without actually getting into it. After all, it is independent in all other ways and it's fine as long as US is strong enough. Now the real point is: Can China put military equipment in Taiwan to break through the so-called first island chain? I think it's a Yes given enough time. I guess that's why NATO has been busily working on the second chain.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > there is really no point for China to invade Taiwan Which is why, historically, it didn’t. But Xi isn’t rational: he’s a dictator. It wasn’t rational for him to force his way onto Hong Kong; the territory would automatically become China in a few decades. Same for his corruption/loyalty purges and decimation of China’s tech sector. Irrational, short-term sacrifices of China’s long-term potential for his short-term politics.
  - hnfong 3y ago
    > It wasn’t rational for him to force his way onto Hong Kong When that happened, Hong Kong was involved in ongoing riots and people were proclaiming (Hong Kong) independence on the streets for months. The legislature was stormed in an event that was not unlike Jan 6 Capitol Hill in the US (we sure did feel the awkward resemblance of the two events...) Everyone can have their views on whether suppressing the riots was morally justified, but Xi had to do something to assert the CCP's sovereignty over Hong Kong. It was the only rational move unless they were prepared to give up Hong Kong. > the territory would automatically become China in a few decades Not sure which place you're talking about. Hong Kong is already part of China at least since the 1997 handover. And Taiwan will never become under CCP rule if status quo is preserved. Don't think there's any mechanism for "automatically" taking over Taiwan. I don't know how familiar you are with the history, but long-term thinking and patience was essentially the reason China was able to gain back control Hong Kong from the Brits, pretty much on China's terms. They took advantage of the 99-year lease on the New Territories, waited until the Brits started developing on the leased (as opposed to ceded) land, and caught them with their pants down when they realized they had no feasible plan to partially hand back the territory when the lease expired. Hong Kong has always been a template (in the CCP's mind at least) for taking back Taiwan, I don't know how you'd come to the conclusion that they would forego long term potential for short term gains. It's like you're talking as if they already invaded Taiwan and you're shaking your head over the stupidity of it. (No, it hasn't happened yet.) The threat of course always seem real enough. It's all a game of chicken. The one who seems most crazy wins. Back then during the 1970s, China also threatened to invade Hong Kong if the Brits didn't hand it back to them. They want you to think the leadership is irrational. Makes them harder to predict.
berserk1010 3y ago
> It’s crazy to me that you haven’t see more divestments in China from Taiwanese companies. There is a ton of divestment, what do you mean? New investments in China by Taiwanese companies declined 10.4 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of the year (2023) to US$758 million...That follows an almost 14 percent decrease in such investment last year.https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2023/04/21/2003798341 https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2023/04/21/2... According to a survey conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics, over a quarter of surveyed Taiwanese firms with operations in China had already moved some of their production or sourcing out of China, while another third were considering doing so in the near-term. https://english.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=3573 https://english.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=3573 Apple Aims to Make a Quarter of the World’s iPhones in India. Supplier Foxconn plans to build more factories and give India a production role once limited mostly to China https://www.wsj.com/tech/apple-aims-to-make-a-quarter-of-the-worlds-iphones-in-india-ab7f6342 https://www.wsj.com/tech/apple-aims-to-make-a-quarter-of-the...
- gwern 3y ago
  > New investments in China by Taiwanese companies declined 10.4 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of the year (2023) to US$758 million...That follows an almost 14 percent decrease in such investment last year How's total investment going? If the flow is still greater than zero, then presumably the stock is still increasing... It's a funny sort of 'divestment' where you have more invested (and at risk) every year.
  - brokencode 3y ago
    Investing less every year is how you eventually get to investing nothing and finally to reducing total footprint every year in China. It makes sense that this is a slow process when you consider the massive scale and complexity of the supply chains involved.
  - berserk1010 3y ago
    A decrease of prior investment level is divestment, just not happening all at once. If you want to see that kind of activity: Foreign investors have snatched back nearly 90% (!!!) of the money they put into Chinese stocks this year (2023) https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-economy-chinese-stock-market-foreign-investor-cash-flow-money-2023-12 https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-econom...
kyawzazaw 3y ago
> no longer is interested in rejoining Xi’s China. I am not clear about this statement. 1. When were they ever an actual part of China (less so Xi's china?) 2. When were they ever interested in giving up their sovereignty?

sanxiyn 3y ago

China and Taiwan use the same language so China is still very attractive for oversea expansion for Taiwanese companies.

baq 3y ago
Ukraine and Russia also mostly speak the same language. Doesn’t mean much if the great leader decides to make a move, actually it is another reason to make a move.
- Waterluvian 3y ago
  About 1/3 of Ukrainians know Russian.
  - voxic11 3y ago
    Ukrainian and Russian are mutually intelligible languages. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_intelligibility#Slavic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_intelligibility#Slavic Whereas different dialects of Mandarin may not be mutually intelligible > Many varieties of Mandarin, such as those of the Southwest (including Sichuanese) and the Lower Yangtze, are not mutually intelligible with the standard language https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandarin_Chinese https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandarin_Chinese
    - alisonatwork 3y ago
      The Mandarin used in Taiwan and the Mandarin used in China are both standard Chinese and mutually intelligible.
      - foobarian 3y ago
        IIRC Cantonese and Mandarin are the two big language groups that are not mutually intelligible.
        gabagaul 3y ago
        But Cantonese isn’t spoken in Taiwan except a handful of Hong Kong immigrants. What’s your point?
        throwaway2990 3y ago
        But they do speak Taiwanese in Taiwan which you wouldn’t understand if you only spoke mandarin.
        alephnerd 3y ago
        > they do speak Taiwanese Do you mean Hakka and/or Hokkien? Hokkien which is primarily spoken across the strait in Fujian. Hakka is primarily spoken in Guangdong, Fujian, and Jiangxi. Xi himself was the Party head of Fujian for most of his career and Xi's father was the Party head of Guangdong when he was rehabilitated in the Deng Xiaoping era. This is why most manufacturing in China ended up coastal Southern China - most Chinese Taiwanese trace their heritage to there barely 2-5 generations ago at most. The younger generation (post-1989) in Taiwan speaks and understands Mandarin.
        alisonatwork 3y ago
        This whole thread has a bunch of answers which are confusing the topic. The issue is why would Taiwanese businesses care about the China market? Aside from the fact that the China market is massive, there is a simple answer: Taiwan and China have the same business language, and that is Standard Chinese aka Mandarin. Yes, lots of Taiwanese people also speak other Sinitic languages that are not Mandarin, and are not mutually intelligible with it. And lots of Chinese people also speak other Sinitic languages that are not Mandarin and are not mutually intelligible with it. And even some variants of Mandarin itself are not mutually intelligible. But - outside of Cantonese in HK and Macau - none of those languages are used as the primary business language anywhere in either China or Taiwan, so it's an interesting side note but doesn't change the point. All that said, aside from the Chinese market being massive, and the common language being convenient, there is a much bigger elephant in the room that explains why Taiwanese companies might not have a fun time doing business in China: politics. It doesn't matter how much money Taiwanese companies might want to make if the CCP can threaten to turn off the spigot any time they want to influence Taiwanese politics, which unfortunately nowadays appears to be all the time. Sure, it's leaving a lot of money on the table, but doing business with Japan or the US or other countries that aren't run as a single party dictatorship whose leadership has a stated platform of dismantling your own government might be a less risky option.
  - edgyquant 3y ago
    Around 1/3 are native speakers but the number of know Russian is significantly higher as it’s the formal business language the way English is in a lot of the world. Hard to find exact numbers, but according to Wikipedia a 2008 gallop poll had 80% of Ukrainians claim to prefer Russian as the language of business.
    - Waterluvian 3y ago
      Ahh TIL! Thanks.
    - tastyminerals2 3y ago
      Well, this is pretty much dated. You would be surprised to learn how the tables started to turn starting from 2014 and finished turning today.
      - theultdev 3y ago
        Is this an anecdote of your experience or? 11 years does not seem like long enough time for a language to first start declining and then end as being the primary formal language.
        VincentEvans 3y ago
        It’s not “declining” but rather being actively replaced and rejected by the population. When your nation suffers brutal aggression perpetrated by the neighbor - it makes it no longer fashionable to speak the language of the aggressor. The fact that Russia also denies that Ukraine and Ukrainians are even a real nation and culture distinct from Russia fuels the sentiment too.
        vkou 3y ago
        Organically, no, 11 years is not long enough. But you may recall that in 2014, a few political directives regarding culture and language use have been made by the Rada, and then a few political decisions were made in the Kremlin, and then everything turned to shit (To put it simply). It's easy to do a lot in 11 years when you start banning foreign-language media, stop using a language for government services, stop teaching it, etc, etc.
  - ffgjgf1 3y ago
    In reality it’s certainly over 90% (probably closer to 99%)
    - 0x457 3y ago
      The only Ukrainians I've that that didn't speak Russian are 2nd gen immigrants outside of Ukraine. Often hilarious because their parents often barely speak Ukrainian themselves.
  - protomolecule 3y ago
    "83% of Ukrainians responding to a 2008 Gallup poll preferred to use Russian instead of Ukrainian to take the survey." [0] [0] https://web.archive.org/web/20100518073110/http://www.gallup.com/poll/109228/Russian-Language-Enjoying-Boost-PostSoviet-States.aspx https://web.archive.org/web/20100518073110/http://www.gallup...
rjzzleep 3y ago
Most of their construction material comes from China and most of Taiwanese exports go to China. Taiwan will never compete on the global market for most of its products. This current policy is economic suicide, and anyone not blinded by ideology knows it. Not a single US president pushed for a FTA with Taiwan. So far every single one has opposed it, while on the back bullying Taiwan to open their markets to dump cheap American pork into it, completely against the will of the Taiwanese people by the way. The current result is that Taiwanese wages have stagnated for decades and as a result save for a select few that go to Japan and the US, a lot of other people look for opportunities in Mainland China. What made Taiwan so successful in the past is what makes Dubai and Singapore so successful now. Open trade with everyone, and easy business opportunities. Both things that it no longer engages in. BTW the big joke nobody really seems to know is that the pro independence party has never submitted a bid for independence, while the pro China party has.
- Xunjin 3y ago
  Why people keep believing that "open trade" solves everything and makes "easy business opportunities"? You can have open trade but also subsidy a portion of your economy to make that "open trade" not so open anymore. I'm not against it, just saying that a single specific decision makes Dubai and Singapore success is a reductionism that helps in nothing the discussion. Let take OPEC in matters, would you say they follow a "free trade" ideology?
- berserk1010 3y ago
  Many wrong things with comments. Your pro-china KMT bias is showing > Taiwan will never compete on the global market for most of its products. the aggregate brand value of Taiwan's 25 largest brands totaled US$13.84 billion in 2023, a 5 percent rise from 2022 and marking the fourth consecutive year of the value surpassing the US$10 billion mark. https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202312020012 https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202312020012 > The current result is that Taiwanese wages have stagnated for decades The average annual salary for full-time employees in Taiwan reached an eight-year high of NT$694,000 (US$22,242) this year (2023). https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202311290017 https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202311290017 Taiwan to surpass Japan in GDP per capita this year (2023): JCER https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Taiwan-to-surpass-Japan-in-GDP-per-capita-this-year-JCER https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Taiwan-to-surpass-Japan-in-G...
gpapilion 3y ago
Taiwanese companies run most of the major hightech manufacturing in China. For example, Foxconn is a taiwanese company. Most of my dealings with these types of manufactures has been in discussions of how to circumvent tariffs, not in really exiting manufacturing in the mainland. When I look at what occurring, I think it has more to do with their cheapest labor force is in China. So the scale and profit is hard to leave.
- aswanson 3y ago
  The Chinese labor force has been reaching parity recently. Hence pushes into Vietnam & India for manufacturing.
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    > Hence pushes into Vietnam & India for manufacturing. Doesn't help Taiwanese companies long term. They had an advantage in Mainland China being Chinese speaking. Already in India, Tata is becoming the Indian version of Foxconn for most manufacturers and VinGroup or Korean Chaebols like Lotte (SK has a FTA with Vietnam) the Vietnamese version of Foxconn in Vietnam. While South Korean and Japanese companies were actively de-risking in China by returning to ASEAN+India in the early-mid 2010s, Taiwanese companies only began doing this in the late 2010s after the 2015-16 recession.
seanmcdirmid 3y ago
It’s more than that: most of the Taiwanese companies are owned/controlled by mainlanders who still have a lot more economic power than native Taiwanese, even if the latter has more political power these days.

mytailorisrich 3y ago

The Republic of China (aka Taiwan) had never any interests in effectively and finally surrendering to the communists on the mainland. The "threat of invasion" has been the case since 1949. The communists stopped and did not 'finish the job' because it was hard, because of a deal with the Nationalists, because they got distracted in Korea, whatever other plausible reasons. This has been the situation since. Interestingly this does not mean that the people, especially pro-KMT, are necessarily 'pro-US'. Those people are rooting for China but not for the communists and see the US as a necessary 'evil', so to speak.

throwaway2474 3y ago
There is an enormous amount of skepticism towards the US TSMC deal in Taiwan, in the sense that Tsai Ing-wen “sold out” Taiwanese IP and top engineers due to political pressure. And in fairness, the US does not have a strong track record wrt its overseas military shenanigans actually helping locals, to put it lightly. A lot of people in Taiwan are anti-CCP, but at the same time, not pro-US because they see the US as an untrustworthy or at least unreliable military ally.
- semi-extrinsic 3y ago
  > And in fairness, the US does not have a strong track record wrt its overseas military shenanigans actually helping locals, to put it lightly. Furthermore the looming US presidential election is making people nervous even in countries that don't depend strongly on the US...
- bee_rider 3y ago
  OTOH it seems fairly safe to build a TSMC factory in the US and loan us some engineers. I mean it isn’t as if we’re actually going to make the long term investments in the education of our people required to steal TSMC’s secrets.
- throwaway2037 3y ago
  > There is an enormous amount of skepticism towards the US TSMC deal in Taiwan, in the sense that Tsai Ing-wen “sold out” Taiwanese IP and top engineers due to political pressure. I followed that story in the media for months. I never saw this sentiment. Can you share some sources? I couldn't find anything from mainstream media.

throwaway4good 3y ago

That is the story if you read western media but it is important to remember that there is a massive world outside the west where that story is turned on its head: Here the US is a frail aging empire that just cannot handle the peaceful rise of China, and the idea of it no being the top dog, and thus lashes out in an increasing desperate manner.

noobermin 3y ago
Speaking as someone who now lives in Singapore, this is not the universal view outside the west and the rise of China is perhaps not warlike in the invading territory sense but people are wary of them.
- throwaway4good 3y ago
  Sorry - just to be clear - just as "Xi is an evil dictator" is common but not universal point of view in the west; the "US is a declining and aggressive empire" is a common but not universal point of view in the rest of the world.
dangus 3y ago
But that is its own form of exaggerated propaganda from the opposing side. In reality, America is playing on geopolitical easy mode and is essentially too big to fail. - It has vast natural resources, some like its oil surplus are resources that even China needs to import. - It has a vast, diverse economy that includes high representation in high-complexity high-value products like software, airplanes, and, yes, semiconductors (Intel manufactures 75% of their products in the US). - It is highly developed and highly educated with particular strength in higher education - It is essentially impossible to physically attack - It produces a crazy amount of food - Its multinational corporations own a large amount of foreign assets, with a banking system that is entangled with the rest of the world - It is close allies with basically everyone that matters except China and Russia, and arguably China is more dependent on the US than the US depends on China. - NAFTA countries are a huge strength to the US. The US now buys more from Mexico than China. - The world’s second largest military and navy are basically non-existent, and the US military is unmatched in logistics.

hnthrowaway0328 3y ago

Taiwan is basically "captured" by: 1) Being too close and too dependent on China mainland 2) Enjoying a huge amount of surplus with China (it overweights everything else combined, and almost doubled) IMO, there is really no point for China to invade Taiwan, even if Taiwan declares independence. The best move of China, when and if that happens, is to simply grab Jinmen and Mazu (the two small islands close to Xiamen), and then start a economic debacle of some sort. They don't even have to put up a physical debacle -- the only thing they need to do is to remove that surplus by removing all economic preferential policies. The best move for Taiwan, is always to be on the brink of independence without actually getting into it. After all, it is independent in all other ways and it's fine as long as US is strong enough. Now the real point is: Can China put military equipment in Taiwan to break through the so-called first island chain? I think it's a Yes given enough time. I guess that's why NATO has been busily working on the second chain.

JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> there is really no point for China to invade Taiwan Which is why, historically, it didn’t. But Xi isn’t rational: he’s a dictator. It wasn’t rational for him to force his way onto Hong Kong; the territory would automatically become China in a few decades. Same for his corruption/loyalty purges and decimation of China’s tech sector. Irrational, short-term sacrifices of China’s long-term potential for his short-term politics.
- hnfong 3y ago
  > It wasn’t rational for him to force his way onto Hong Kong When that happened, Hong Kong was involved in ongoing riots and people were proclaiming (Hong Kong) independence on the streets for months. The legislature was stormed in an event that was not unlike Jan 6 Capitol Hill in the US (we sure did feel the awkward resemblance of the two events...) Everyone can have their views on whether suppressing the riots was morally justified, but Xi had to do something to assert the CCP's sovereignty over Hong Kong. It was the only rational move unless they were prepared to give up Hong Kong. > the territory would automatically become China in a few decades Not sure which place you're talking about. Hong Kong is already part of China at least since the 1997 handover. And Taiwan will never become under CCP rule if status quo is preserved. Don't think there's any mechanism for "automatically" taking over Taiwan. I don't know how familiar you are with the history, but long-term thinking and patience was essentially the reason China was able to gain back control Hong Kong from the Brits, pretty much on China's terms. They took advantage of the 99-year lease on the New Territories, waited until the Brits started developing on the leased (as opposed to ceded) land, and caught them with their pants down when they realized they had no feasible plan to partially hand back the territory when the lease expired. Hong Kong has always been a template (in the CCP's mind at least) for taking back Taiwan, I don't know how you'd come to the conclusion that they would forego long term potential for short term gains. It's like you're talking as if they already invaded Taiwan and you're shaking your head over the stupidity of it. (No, it hasn't happened yet.) The threat of course always seem real enough. It's all a game of chicken. The one who seems most crazy wins. Back then during the 1970s, China also threatened to invade Hong Kong if the Brits didn't hand it back to them. They want you to think the leadership is irrational. Makes them harder to predict.

berserk1010 3y ago

> It’s crazy to me that you haven’t see more divestments in China from Taiwanese companies. There is a ton of divestment, what do you mean? New investments in China by Taiwanese companies declined 10.4 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of the year (2023) to US$758 million...That follows an almost 14 percent decrease in such investment last year.https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2023/04/21/2003798341 https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2023/04/21/2... According to a survey conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics, over a quarter of surveyed Taiwanese firms with operations in China had already moved some of their production or sourcing out of China, while another third were considering doing so in the near-term. https://english.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=3573 https://english.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=3573 Apple Aims to Make a Quarter of the World’s iPhones in India. Supplier Foxconn plans to build more factories and give India a production role once limited mostly to China https://www.wsj.com/tech/apple-aims-to-make-a-quarter-of-the-worlds-iphones-in-india-ab7f6342 https://www.wsj.com/tech/apple-aims-to-make-a-quarter-of-the...

gwern 3y ago
> New investments in China by Taiwanese companies declined 10.4 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of the year (2023) to US$758 million...That follows an almost 14 percent decrease in such investment last year How's total investment going? If the flow is still greater than zero, then presumably the stock is still increasing... It's a funny sort of 'divestment' where you have more invested (and at risk) every year.
- brokencode 3y ago
  Investing less every year is how you eventually get to investing nothing and finally to reducing total footprint every year in China. It makes sense that this is a slow process when you consider the massive scale and complexity of the supply chains involved.
- berserk1010 3y ago
  A decrease of prior investment level is divestment, just not happening all at once. If you want to see that kind of activity: Foreign investors have snatched back nearly 90% (!!!) of the money they put into Chinese stocks this year (2023) https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-economy-chinese-stock-market-foreign-investor-cash-flow-money-2023-12 https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-econom...

kyawzazaw 3y ago

> no longer is interested in rejoining Xi’s China. I am not clear about this statement. 1. When were they ever an actual part of China (less so Xi's china?) 2. When were they ever interested in giving up their sovereignty?