10 ms·
This stuff is so 2023
by admissionsguy 3y ago
This stuff is so 2023
- h0l0cube 3y agoCounterpoint: Imagine this line of inquiry that the west has given up on lands China the breakthrough of the century? Given the way the US and EU are conspiring to withhold key chip fab tech, it would be absolutely hilarious if China covertly discovered room temperature superconductivity and the government withholds it as a domestic advantage; blowing away AWS and Microsoft's compute offering with something orders of magnitudes faster and reverse the tech playing field.
- londons_explore 3y agoIf China discovers this, publishes papers on it, and patents it, you can be 100% sure that the west will just ignore any patents and fabricate it themselves.
- h0l0cube 3y agoKeyword was 'covertly'. As in withheld from publication and controlled by the government
- londons_explore 3y agoPossible, but many of the economic benefits would be lost if you needed to do it covertly. Can't exactly have room temperature superconducting monorails all over the nation without someone questioning exactly how you have room temp superconductors and nobody else does...
- h0l0cube 3y agoI’m fancying that a centrally managed economy might be able to do this, where a democratic capitalist economy may not. But I agree it’s a bit of a leap
- admissionsguy 3y agoI am really relaxed about the US primacy in tech. It has all the systemic advantages and no fluke discovery would change that. I am also quite relaxed about this preprint. As far as I am concerned the issues pointed out in this post on an actual physics forums with regards to the famous LK-99 preprint still stand with regards to this new paper: https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/room-temperature-superconductor-paper-published.1054360/#post-6917393 https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/room-temperature-super...
- h0l0cube 3y agoI wasn't talking specifically about this paper. If there's some merit to this line of inquiry, and it yields something revolutionary, I think the Chinese government would be foolish not to turn it into leverage. Especially given the recent adversarial climate in trade relations and access to advanced equipment
- admissionsguy 3y agoAny technology will have a very long way from the initial discovery to widespread application. A swarm of tinkering US startups will beat any Chinese megaproject. You propose that it is developed covertly to such an extend that it becomes a game changer that disrupts the current power balance before the US realises. I strongly disbelieve that such things can happen outside of fiction. For example, Manhattan project was known to the Soviets very early.
- hobs 3y agoStartups dont do massive infrastructure investment. The Manhattan project was not a startup, but one of the most expensive things the US government ever did.
- h0l0cube 3y agoYou could be right, but it's hard to know how history would play out if a 'new cold war' with China started today, and with such a unique technological asymmetry (as room temperature superconductivity), and with a country that has a great deal more technical capability, self-sufficiency, and scruples than the former USSR.
- Nextgrid 3y agoI wonder how can you effectively withhold it? If you make commercial products with it and sell them it’s going to be reverse-engineered. It’s only viable if it’s exclusively used in military tech.
- h0l0cube 3y agoYou could offer a compute platform as a service. But I agree the applicability of the tech is probably broader than that.
- andruby 3y agoIt's an interesting thought experiment. I can entertain the idea of a superconductor staying a secret in a military environment, but I can't imagine it getting widescale commercial use and staying a secret.
- h0l0cube 3y agoSure I think the idea fanciful, and I agree that keeping the tech from leaking would be close to impossible, but if the stakes were high enough, maybe a centrally governed and authoritarian government like China could pull it off. It's at least fun to think about.
- PaulHoule 3y agoIn this movie https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brainstorm_(1983_film) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brainstorm_(1983_film) a researcher builds a device that can record and play back experiences which takes up most of a room, in a meeting with his boss, he receives some secret microchips made of a room temperature superconductor that he uses to make headsets.
- h0l0cube 3y agoThank you for that. I had never encountered this film. I think parallels could also be drawn to the (highly underrated) Counterpart Series, where a researcher in Berlin accidentally creates a portal to a parallel earth and a cold war between the two world ensues. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterpart_(TV_series) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterpart_(TV_series)
- pmayrgundter 3y agoThank you. I was never able to find this again. Really enjoyed it!
- mindcrime 3y agoI only just got around to watching Brainstorm sometime last year. It's far from a perfect movie, but definitely worth watching.
- tjpnz 3y agoYou assume the US and EU would be starting at zero.
- h0l0cube 3y agoIt's a hypothetical I haven't really ruminated on. But I suppose it would be a new cold war scenario with superconductivity supremacy swapped out for nuclear first-strike capability, and similar levels of espionage
- fallingknife 3y agoEven if you had a room temp SC manufacturing chips out of it would be a whole different issue. In fact we already have a material that can be used to build chips that can be clocked a couple OOM higher than silicon. It's just graphite. But even with a well known material like that and decades to try, the manufacturing capability still isn't there. Agree with your overall point, though.
- barryrandall 3y agoAs someone whose every move is monitored by some of the most well-funded, best-equipped, and ethically questionable intelligence agencies his tax money can buy, I look forward to seeing how long they can keep this secret.
- graphe 3y agoIt doesn't need to be secret, just obscure. Don't believe the intelligence agencies are always intelligent or always there to help you or their host countries. Shin bet and their mishandling of Rabin and the recent October attacks prove this, as well as the CIA's pointless declassified wastes of money, often against American interests.
- selimthegrim 3y agoHow did they mishandle Rabin?
- h0l0cube 3y agoI was making subtle reference to ASML withholding lithography machines from China. One could ask why China is yet to replicate their technology if know-how is so permeable
- criley2 3y agoOne would imagine that the west would then engage in China's favorite playing field leveler: they'd steal the technology by whatever means necessary.
- h0l0cube 3y agoProbably. But you have to wonder if anything can be stolen and replicated, why haven’t China managed to duplicate ASML’s lithographic machines?
- louthy 3y agoJust send Clint Eastwood in to steal it
- eunos 3y agoSeeing China Watcher Cope and Seethe for entire year is enough for me
- dekhn 3y agoThis would actually be an amazing outcome because there's no way they could keep it secret (it would spur both espionage and intense research), and the US would end up being able to reproduce their formula. It would make things "exciting" again in a way we haven't really seen since the space race.
- highwaylights 3y agoI laughed quite a bit at this
- moffkalast 3y agoFool me once, shame on you. Fool me- can't get fooled again.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]