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San Francisco’s rent prices have never returned to pre-2020 levels
- nine_zeros 3y agoNow if only this would happen in other major cities, that would be great.
- toomuchtodo 3y agohttps://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/08/apartment-rents-on-verge-of-declining-due-to-massive-supply.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/08/apartment-rents-on-verge-of-...
- simplyluke 3y agoIt’s happening nation wide. Seattle is down ~10% yoy. Overall housing costs have been coming down nationally, and the last inflation report actually had us in deflation month over month.
- nilkn 3y agoRedfin's data says otherwise -- Seattle SFHs are up 5.5% YoY. [0] [0] https://www.redfin.com/city/16163/WA/Seattle/housing-market https://www.redfin.com/city/16163/WA/Seattle/housing-market
- simplyluke 3y agoFor buying houses this is true, rents have softened after atmospheric increases in the past few years (very different from SF) https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/report-seattle-rent-decreases-10-16-following-skyrocketing-increases-last-year/Y65NYHBN4JBUBITKEJJMUAXAXI/ https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/report-seattle-rent-decreas...
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- bagels 3y agoWhy does anyone expect them to decrease, other than for a short time? Long term trend is an annual increase of 5.5%.
- apsec112 3y agoAdjusted for US-wide inflation, rent in SF is down 30% (not a typo) since the end of 2019. They're down because there's more supply and less demand, so landlords can't fill vacancies.
- jefftk 3y ago[EDIT: I misunderstood; see below] That doesn't sound right: US-wide inflation since 2019 is less than 30% (more like 19%), in which case I don't see how to square your claim with the article's headline.
- apsec112 3y agoIt's down 16% in nominal terms. From the article: "The city’s typical rent in November 2023 was 16.4% lower than the $2,620 in November 2019."
- jefftk 3y agoThanks! I misunderstood the headline, and thought it was saying that despite covid rents are still higher than the pre-2020 baseline, when actually it's saying that rents are still lower (in nominal terms, and so strongly so in real terms) than the pre-2020 baseline.
- toomuchtodo 3y agoThoughts on how the vacant property tax will impact asking rents? My understanding is that it becomes effective Jan 1, 2024. Feels like it might encourage landlords to rent units at a rent they will begrudgingly accept to avoid the tax vs holding out for top dollar, but perhaps too early to tell. https://sftreasurer.org/business/taxes-fees/empty-homes-tax-eht https://sftreasurer.org/business/taxes-fees/empty-homes-tax-...
- crooked-v 3y agoWhy would they go down? Even with the people who have left, (legal) housing supply in San Francisco is still well under demand.
- threatofrain 3y agoI think it would go down if the people who were demanding it were less wealthy.
- Finnucane 3y agoJust this—if lots of people get laid off from high paying jobs and new hiring slows down, there’s not going to be enough money to support higher rents.
- thfuran 3y agoWell, if people left at a higher rate than people decided they wanted to arrive, the supply is now less insufficient to meet demand and so it is expected that prices would decrease.
- fny 3y agoIt doesn’t seem like you read the article? Rents are continuing to decline in SF.
- threatofrain 3y agoI don't think that's obvious per Redfin, but I may be wrong?
- darth_avocado 3y agoThe rent will not go down in SF, owners would rather sit the apartments empty than to rent at a discount to keep the prices high. Or they offer a few months off, so the annual rent is lower but the monthly rent is high. All to ensure the SF rents stay high in the long run.
- 3y ago
- billwashere 3y agohttps://archive.is/G4q37 https://archive.is/G4q37
- MarkSweep 3y ago> The median one-bedroom asking rent in San Francisco was $2,190 in November 2023 This number must be dragged down by rent-controlled. It seems too low. At apartments.com, there are 1777 listings for one bedroom apartments in SF. There are only 112 apartments listed for below $2200.
- onlyrealcuzzo 3y agoNumbers would be FAR lower if rent control was factored in. >50% of renters in SF are on rent control.
- apsec112 3y agoPossible the numbers are wrong, but "asking rent" means the non-rent-controlled price, ie. what you would get if you rented one new today.
- gwbas1c 3y agoUnless the laws changed, rent controlled apartments are rented out at market rate, and then price increases are strictly controlled. I lived in a rent controlled apartment in SF for a year. What was frustrating was realizing that I was paying significantly more rent than other tenants in similar units.
- DiggyJohnson 3y agoWhat you’re saying seems incompatible to me. Either they’re rented out at market rate, or their prices are strictly controlled. How did you end up paying more than comp with a rent controlled unit? That doesn’t make much sense.
- blast 3y agoNew tenants have to pay market rate to begin renting. Rent control kicks in after that and prevents the rent from increasing much. If the other renters had been there for many years, they'd still be paying market rate (plus a bit) from years earlier. That could be a lot less than market rate now. That's why renters in rent-controlled units tend not to move as much - as market rates go up, your rent gets relatively cheaper over time and that's an incentive to stay put.
- s1gnp0st 3y agoPeople are opting out. I redirected my career away from a tech mega-corp for precisely the reason that eventually I'd have to relocate to the bay area to continue advancing. There's absolutely no way I'm doing that to my family.
- panarky 3y agoIf far more people were opting out, residential buildings would be empty, and rents would fall well below their pre-2020 level. The fact that rents are still higher than that is pretty good evidence that a large number of people continue to opt in.
- hasty_pudding 3y agoI think the fact that rents are still high is because of the general population crush in California, not just tech people.
- xvector 3y agoNot necessarily - you can increase rents further on the people that remain because perhaps you suspect that they are less likely or unable to move.
- hnburnsy 3y agoInertia is a powerful thing.
- DevKoala 3y agoActually there are tons of empty office buildings and residential units. It’s the same situation as in New York. Plenty of landlords can afford keeping their prices high hoping for the eventual bite. If they lower their prices further they do a bigger damage to their portfolio for years to come once you factor in rent control.
- UberFly 3y ago“In many cases rent control appears to be the most efficient technique presently known to destroy a city—except for bombing.” -Assar Lindbeck
- egypturnash 3y agoHell yeah, maybe my artist friends who grew up there will have the option to move back if they want it.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- dalyons 3y agolol no
- matt3210 3y agoHousing prices can never fall. It’s by design
- yodon 3y agoYou may have missed, for example, the year 2008.
- shmerl 3y agoDoes the rent ever go down though? Landlords only raise it. I don't remember this ever happening. So I'd say some housing prices indeed never fall.
- selectodude 3y agoMinneapolis has seen real decrease in rents due to liberalizing new construction. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-08-09/minneapolis-controls-us-inflation-with-affordable-housing-renting https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-08-09/minneapol...
- furyofantares 3y agoThis is a story about falling housing prices.
- jcparkyn 3y agoThe very first line of the linked article: "San Francisco rents continue to drop, and they probably haven’t hit bottom."
- orenlindsey 3y agoA lot of people have been moving from California to other, more suburban, places. Especially North Carolina (my location), Texas, Florida, and others. It ends up messing with the local housing market, as the Californians come in with a ton of money for housing (as housing is so expensive where they're from) and all the prices are super low in the new location. Since they have enough money to pay for it, prices go sky-high. Not good for locals (unless you want to sell your house). You can buy 2 equal sized, equivalent location, equal desirability houses in North Carolina (or insert most other states) and California and end up paying double or triple in California.
- slt2021 3y agoIt used to be pre-2020 that I was able to buy a house in prime NC location like RTP using just a downpayment for a house in CA
- matrix87 3y ago> It ends up messing with the local housing market, as the Californians come in with a ton of money for housing (as housing is so expensive where they're from) and all the prices are super low in the new location. Since they have enough money to pay for it, prices go sky-high. Not good for locals (unless you want to sell your house). This argument doesn't make any sense, it isn't like Californians come and think "Wow let me pay 200k over asking price because this is such a good deal compared to the Bay!", they see the same prices you see. I don't see how Californians are distinguishable from any other demographic that migrates to somewhere like e.g. Austin, this just seems like an unwarranted reason to hate on people from Cali
- lolinder 3y agoBuyers who need a mortgage can't go above the appraisal value, which in times of high demand lags behind the actual value of the home. If the buyer and seller reach an agreed upon value and the appraisal comes in lower than they expect, the buyer may have to back out (which can screw up the seller's plans) or lower the offer. A cash offer doesn't have that risk, so all else being equal sellers will choose them over mortgage offers. This has the effect of raising prices faster than they might otherwise go, because the appraisal system normally serves as a bit of inertia in the system.
- simplyluke 3y agoA lot of commenters not reading the article. For clarity: rents in San Francisco HAVE decreased compared to 2019 in absolute dollar terms, this is despite rents in the state increasing overall, and the city of San Francisco has seen this in a more pronounced manner than the Bay Area overall. This points to a localized impact that is not explained by broader trends in inflation, housing, etc.
- outside1234 3y agoIt’s not hard to figure out - it was crazy expensive - San Francisco the city is poorly managed - and there are much better places to live in the Bay Area.
- dCrumpets 3y agoLike where?! The rest of the Bay Area (except maybe Oakland and Berkeley) strikes me as a cookie-cutter, suburban hell-scape. I've visited Palo Alto, San Matteo, Pleasanton, Fremont, and San Jose in the course of my time in the East Bay, and I couldn't help but ask myself why the heck anyone would live there. I don't see anything unique in those places--why not live in a suburb anywhere else, at 1/8th of the cost?
- NewJazz 3y agoI mean... I'm not about to go giving away info on all the nice spots... But there are some places out there with good schools, a reasonable balance of transit/development and open space, and affordable (by bay area standards) housing.
- johnfn 3y ago> I mean... I'm not about to go giving away info on all the nice spots... Do you really think that telling one person on Hacker News about a nice spot is going to make that spot stop being nice?
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- zizee 3y agoWhat's with the headline switcheroo?
- objektif 3y agoThis is not directly related but I really really really wish Realpage and landlords that used it to artificially increase rents pay a big price for their shenanigans.
- jeffbee 3y agoRealPage is a company that every morning begs their customers to lower the asking rents.
- cleandreams 3y agoI live in SF and I think the doom loop narrative is true of downtown. So many job cuts (though I think the AI boom is already gaining traction). However the neighborhoods are dreamy, as good as ever. The city lost population during the pandemic but it has been gaining and in 2023, it is the fastest growing in the state. I've been in tech for years here and it is the best job market, most lucrative, and most advanced. It's an opportunity to work here. Just don't live in the tenderloin.
- pj_mukh 3y agoSeconded. It is nutso good in the neighborhoods and the startup energy and ambition between Hayes valley and Silicon Valley (south bay) is absolutely unmatched. It just sucks people are forced to make a these difficult choices for rent.
- ex3ndr 3y agoDo you really need a vibe to build though?
- cable 3y agono.
- happytiger 3y agoNo but it’s nice to be surrounded by like minded people. What you need isn’t always what you want.
- pj_mukh 3y agoI’ve seen confused founders become relentless executors when surrounded by the right vibe. And I’ve seen ambitious founders burnout fighting for traction in an environment that doesn’t foster their energy. So I’d say yes.
- staticautomatic 3y ago
- acjohnson55 3y agoI believe two seemingly contradictory things to be true: - SF rents have been falling - There is not enough housing in SF This is because SF is still a very expensive place to live. If there were more affordable housing, a lot more people would still choose to live there.
- noobermin 3y agoThese two facts contradict each other exactly. If you want more housing in a city you want rents to not grow in real terms. What else are you hoping for?
- acjohnson55 3y agoWhat if it's not the revenue (i.e.rent) that's the problem but the cost, due to the artificial scarcity of space that can be filled with housing? San Francisco is infamous for its restrictive constraints on what can be built. If it were possible to build denser and presumably cheaper forms of housing, I posit that people could develop profitably, without rent needing to go up indefinitely.
- hardwaregeek 3y agoMy partner and I were stunned to see that SF housing prices are way lower than New York’s. Like a decent 2 bedroom 2 bathroom with amenities like an elevator (ikr what an amenity), in unit laundry and nice fixtures will run you 6k easily in New York. In SF there’s plenty of listings for 3-4K. Its making us seriously consider moving to SF for a bit
- iaseiadit 3y agoA few years back, 1-bedrooms in dire need of renovation were going for $3-$4k. Sounds like things have really fallen off. I still wouldn’t move back, unless I were 15 years younger and needed to jumpstart my career
- rcpt 3y agoCompared to NYC, SF has far fewer amenities outside of your apartment.
- etrautmann 3y agoThe nature is far better though.
- alephnerd 3y agoIf you're Asian, SF works out better than Manhattan or Brooklyn. The fact that you can just go downstairs and get fresh and near authentic Com Tam, Shiumai, or Tandoori for cheap is hard to beat, and the community is much stronger and better represented. Not to say NYC is bad - it's an amazing city - but, to quote Ali Wong, SF is absolutely an Asian Wakanda
- blovescoffee 3y agoAs a non Asian person I always thought New York offered quite an array of Asian cuisine etc. the old Chinese communities especially seem pretty legit. any comments on this?
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- cald0s 3y ago[flagged]
- spullara 3y agoEven if they are flat they should be reduced by inflation if you are comparing them to pre 2020 prices.
- jmspring 3y agoI think the city is an outlier (as noted) due to rent control. Rent from the north bay to monterey county has NOT gone down. Rents keeps increasing ... this is talking to people renting not the sites that will post a price and demand something else.
- asylteltine 3y agoI haven’t heard a single person who left SF that said they would go back. Every documentary I watch about it makes it look like a lawless hellhole. And that government… just an overall disaster of a city.
- fragmede 3y agoThen you're not talking to enough people and watching too much mainstream media, which gets off on the lawless hellhole angle because it gets them views and thus ad dollars.
- notabennett 3y agoWell, now you've heard of one: I left SF in 2019 and moved back in 2021. Do not regret it. If I have to leave in the future it will be with great sadness. It is not a lawless hellhole. There is a lot of property crime, but it's not because we don't have enough cops. The weather is very good. Excellent restaurants. The government is ridiculous.
- hcnews 3y agoWhat are the property crimes in SF/Bay Area? Just curious.
- notabennett 3y agoThe big ones are car break-ins and bike thefts.
- obmelvin 3y agoA lot of people are just ridiculously scared of homeless, which really fuels the media narrative. I see it in San Diego - the way the media talks about it, the way the city doesn't spend money allocated for such issues, stand up comedians disparaging them, acquaintances afraid of people on the street just trying to survive, banning people from sleeping in their cars, etc. There are plenty of crazy homed people. There are plenty of homed people committing crimes. Most people who are homeless are totally normal people who hit a bad patch, and it's very difficult to get back on your feet when no one will give you a job.
- habosa 3y ago2019: The rent is too high, SF is a bubble. 2023: The rent isn’t going up, SF is dying. What if, maybe, SF actually has found a period of relative price stability as a very expensive place but no longer the most expensive place. Seems like a totally reasonable situation to me. (Bias warning: I rented in SF for 7+ years, just bought in SF, so my normal is SF normal)
- napierzaza 3y agoI knew your bias when you happy about the price of living here
- godelmachine 3y agoAt this rate, SF will be cheaper than Toronto.
- torton 3y agoIt already is, taking into account differences in income.
- brutus1213 3y agoFellow Canadians! I'm mulling moving (back) to the SF Bay area. I am at a senior position at work(AI). Pay is a factor but more about wanting to be at the cutting edge, and change of scene. Issue is I have two kids under 10. I was doing the math for south bay area but this thread makes me wonder if SF is doable (living/employment). Suggestions about feasibility/lifestyle compromises/something else to factor in? Oh .. spouse is not in tech :(
- torton 3y agoNo comment on best places to raise kids, although I firmly believe a city (even a smaller one) would stimulate their development much more than a car dependent suburb. Ask for no less than 200, preferably 250+ base. Live close to work, transit in the Bay ranges between somewhat tolerable to nonexistent. Check family health insurance costs carefully. Do not assume you will be able to work remote, return to office is very real. Several Peninsula cities are only about half an hour from SF, might be a good starting point that lets you explore up and down the bay and decide where you would want to settle in for the long term.
- sgt101 3y agonever = 4 years? wot?
- altals2023 3y agoPrice sold below published market rate are now on hold and cannot be shown. Local governments there are manipulating price discovery.
- water9 3y agoWell, are they going to reduce the money supply by the 40% that they printed during that time?