12 ms·

Lithium “shortage” bubble implodes again

326 points by passwordoops 3y ago

AlbertCory 3y ago
Commodity prices fluctuate wildly. Fundamentals have very little to do with it.
- trompetenaccoun 3y ago
  You're right but it's a bit of both. There was a real shortage, we're just now slowly coming out of it. Prices are falling in anticipation because one can already see the mining capacity that's being added.
  - AlbertCory 3y ago
    Could be. Commodities markets do have lots of speculators with no financial stake at all in the underlying commodity.
oatmeal1 3y ago
How does this translate to the cost of producing a lithium ion battery?
blueflow 3y ago
> CNY per tonne I somewhat expected USD but i'm not surprised. Times change.
- ToucanLoucan 3y ago
  I was going to comment about perhaps that's because so much of it is mined in China, but a quick google says China is a rather distant third behind Australia and Chile. The more you know.
  - icegreentea2 3y ago
    China is the leading lithium refiner. The price referenced (battery grade lithium carbonate) is an output of a refinery, not a mine. There are many different numbers thrown around for China's refining share, but they are all significant, typically all > 50%.
- mysterydip 3y ago
  Looks like that's because it's trading in Shanghai.
- cft 3y ago
  Since the end of the USD as the world reserve currency is imminent, the wisest thing US government can do is promote and favor Bitcoin. It's better to have a world reserve currency that no one controls, than CNY.
  - ceejayoz 3y ago
    Yes, let's run the world economy off a currency that could halve in value if Satoshi Nakamoto finds an old USB drive sitting around somewhere.
    - barelyauser 3y ago
      I suppose this is a better arrangement than the current system, where they key figures know exactly where the money printer is at all times.
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
  - KptMarchewa 3y ago
    Poe's law strikes again.
- crazygringo 3y ago
  Over half of lithium is refined in China and then sold. Since those refining costs are in domestic CNY, it makes perfect sense that the commodities price will also be quoted in CNY. Nothing to do with "times changing", everything to do with country of production. (Most commodities aren't so tied to a single country, which is why they end up in USD.)
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
- deleted 3y ago
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Eumenes 3y ago
Time to stock up on lifepo4 batteries.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  Time to ramp utility scale energy storage. Make batteries while the inputs are cheap. https://www.pcienergysolutions.com/2022/04/27/how-quickly-can-the-u-s-ramp-up-battery-storage-capacity/ https://www.pcienergysolutions.com/2022/04/27/how-quickly-ca... https://www.iea.org/energy-system/electricity/grid-scale-storage https://www.iea.org/energy-system/electricity/grid-scale-sto... https://insideevs.com/news/692788/tesla-battery-energy-storage-deployment-2023q3/ https://insideevs.com/news/692788/tesla-battery-energy-stora... (edit: as the cost of renewables approaches sub $0.01/kwh wholesale, storage/transmission/distribution become the primary costs of energy)
  - Eumenes 3y ago
    How challenging is it to DIY your own lithium battery packs?
    - dylan604 3y ago
      How good are you at putting out fire that doesn't mind getting wet?
      - licomo 3y ago
        That's never discouraged me from experimenting before ;) But in all seriousness, it depends on the chemistry. Li-ion? - No way I'm building my own! LiFePO4 - can come in nice prismatic cells that are easy to connect terminals with bars (just remember to keep them under compression!). Their failure mode is MUCH nicer than Li-ion. LTO - these are really interesting to me, and I am really tempted to branch out into this area. They look great from a safety perspective. Disclaimer: I have installed ~15 kWh of DIY batteries for solar.
      - s1artibartfast 3y ago
grecy 3y ago
This is fantastic news, and means the price of EVs and large utility scale batteries will continue to fall much faster than anyone predicted.
- mysterydip 3y ago
  It's still about 3x the lowest price from 2020. Hopefully the downward trend continues, though.
- infofarmer 3y ago
  Lithium is <10% cost of a battery. Presumably much less now. Doesn't affect the price of EVs that much yet.
  - nicoburns 3y ago
    What makes up the majority of the cost?
    - danans 3y ago
      Other expensive materials in the cathode, manufacturing costs, and the anode are most of the major costs. A visualization: https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-cost-of-an-ev-battery-cell/ https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-cost...
      - nostrademons 3y ago
        Lithium is part of the cathode. Looks like it was more like ~20% in 2022, though it may be down closer to 10% now that the price spike is subsiding: https://thundersaidenergy.com/downloads/lithium-ion-batteries-for-electric-vehicles-what-costs/ https://thundersaidenergy.com/downloads/lithium-ion-batterie... Of note: raw materials are now ~2/3 of the total price of a battery cell, because of the continued plunge in manufacturing costs. And it's pretty well distributed across the different raw materials used. That indicates that the price may not drop all that much more without a concerted supply-chain effort.
TomK32 3y ago
Clickbaiting heading. The price is still 300% compared to the low in August 2020.
- passwordoops 3y ago
  And it's back to where it was in 2018. Point of the article is commodities fluctuate
- esotericimpl 3y ago
  [dead]
- sapiogram 3y ago
  I don't find it clickbaity at all. I mean, it makes it sound like the price of lithium dropped massively, but isn't that exactly what happened?
  - SkyBelow 3y ago
    I think the difference is in what a drop is in regards to. A drop of a well established price indicates something has fundamentally changed to make the price go down. A drop from the peak of a large increase that is still far above the previous well established price looks more like something has fundamentally changed to make the price go up, but markets over estimated how much the price would increase. The difference is that the new price, assuming it becomes the new well established price, is lower in one situation and higher in the other. A title implying the former case when it is the latter might fall under the scope of clickbait. If the price is swinging up and down constantly and there is no well established price, then that is yet another situation which seems different from the previous two and the title might be better off capturing the unsteady nature of the price. If I make a major story that "X happened three times this year" without pointing out in the title that the historic numbers of X is 2 to 4 each year, it can be treated as a dishonest implication of some trend that doesn't exist. We know many will only read headlines and will not question the implications. This is something worth calling out even when it is over trivial matters to prevent it from being used for more serious matters.
barney54 3y ago
Where is the data on lithium production surging? It isn’t in the article, only future projects (they may or may not work.)
- ceejayoz 3y ago
  https://www.statista.com/statistics/606684/world-production-of-lithium/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/606684/world-production-... shows a significant surge starting in 2017. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-25-years-of-lithium-production-by-country/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-25-years-of-lit... has a per-country visualization of it; look like Australia has a big share of the increase.
aifooh7Keew6xoo 3y ago
sounds like they need to invest in some regulatory capture or maybe just all of their competitors, capitalism is only supposed to work like that in text books!
speed_spread 3y ago
Is it sodium battery tech starting to have an effect?
- passwordoops 3y ago
  Nope, just good old speculation in the commodities market!
  - sapiogram 3y ago
    That doesn't exclude sodium batteries as a factor. Quite the opposite imo, since that technology is also highly speculative.
- tooltalk 3y ago
  >> Is it sodium battery tech starting to have an effect? << It's not yet mass-produced at scale or commodified to have much impact yet. The falling lithium price however could make sodium batteries less attractive.
gumby 3y ago
As famously predicted by Julian Simon back in the 70s and 80s: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon–Ehrlich_wager https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon–Ehrlich_wager
- passwordoops 3y ago
  Sorry to burst your bubble, but the article points out it's just good old fashioned speculation in the commodities market! Clearly there was a massive bubble over the past couple of years driven by hype. The spot price is still higher than 2020
  - otherme123 3y ago
    Everyone can recognize a bubble once it pops. But the last three years, what you call "bubble" was rational (?) speculation that lithium 1) was going to be needed on a massive scale and 2) virtually all the profitable sources were already being mined. Also, between 2020 and 2023 we have a ~20% inflation, and the price is not yet stable.
    - trompetenaccoun 3y ago
      >and 2) virtually all the profitable sources were already being mined There have been massive investments in lithium mining over the past few years, especially in Western countries, partly for business and partly for strategic geopolitical reasons. So there's nothing rational about that assumption and I don't think any serious investor made it either because all this is public knowledge among insiders and easily researched. The price spikes are simply based on demand and speculation. Short term there was/is a serious shortage and that's reflected in the price. Also once production of EVs really ramps up, this could repeat. There's definitely no sign of overinvestment in terms of mining and processing.
      - otherme123 3y ago
        I was always on the side of "we will figure it out". You can see a question mark after the word "rational", because I recall arguing with very-knowledgeable-and-insider people right here, in HN, that assured that all the high yield and profitable lithium was already being mined, and no significant new lithium will be discovered. I took my downvotes for saying that if the demand increased, either the supply will also increase or an alternative will be discovered/developed. And now I'm taking my downvotes for remembering that there was no feeling of bubble (although hindsight is always 20/20), but that the price spike was based on very rational (?) analysis.
epistasis 3y ago
Even with recent price spikes on various component prices, the price of the overall good sold continues its march downwards. BNEF's annual survey showed a 14% decrease in prices (other price surveys will show different results). https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-hit-record-low-of-139-kwh/ https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-... The single component price, even of the component namesake of the battery, does not cause huge fluctuations in the overall cost of the battery due to the small amount of lithium cost in the battery and the substitution possibilities for all the other components. And there's even a chance that sodium substitution for lithium could be used in a ton of applications soon. Batteries and renewables are not like oil: a single commodity price fluctuation is not going to disrupt entire economies. They are a much more stable foundation upon which to build an economy.
- Gibbon1 3y ago
  Thought of mine from 20 years ago is the power available from fossil fuels has been limited since around 1970. Which is it's very price inelastic. And there will never be enough to pull the remaining 2/3rds of humanity out of poverty. The Chinese managed what they did by burning 2/3rd of their total coal reserves in the last 40 years. But what we're now seeing is the vastly larger availability and price elastic supply of solar and wind power. All this stuff, solar, wind, batteries are getting cheap and commodified. The result is the world economy isn't energy constrained for the first time in 50 years.
  - epistasis 3y ago
    Good points. One thing about raising most of the world out of poverty, however, is that even with the current energy mix, it would not take much more fossil fuels, and only raise emissions by 5%. A very recent paper with this (somewhat surprising) modeling: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03627-w https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03627-w
Hayvok 3y ago
> The spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate, trading in Shanghai and serving as a benchmark I'm not sure why the Shanghai price is being used as the global benchmark without any qualification in this article, because in 2022 China was paying 2x per KG more than the U.S.A. and Europe. Everybody saw a significant increase, but nobody quite like China, where it looks like a bubble. Prices have come down globally in 2023, but the Chinese price is now much closer to the U.S. and European price. Regional price index: https://businessanalytiq.com/procurementanalytics/index/lithium-carbonate-price-index/ https://businessanalytiq.com/procurementanalytics/index/lith...
- firebat45 3y ago
  When you look at where the overwhelming majority of lithium batteries are produced, it makes sense to use China as the benchmark (and why it pays more than the US or Europe).
  - bee_rider 3y ago
    It isn’t obvious to me (although, I am dumb about this stuff) why China would pay more for lithium if they (presumably) use more… wouldn’t we expect economies of scale and all that to make it cheaper for them?
    - nativeit 3y ago
      Only if speculators don’t ruin everyone’s fun betting from the sidelines in volumes that outpace the influence of legitimate trade.
      - xkekjrktllss 3y ago
        Are you implying that stocks are not legitimate trade? That's anti-freedom.
        mschuster91 3y ago
        Trading in commodities futures has a point, but it has gotten absolutely ridiculous in scope. The market participants used to be farm collectives, mining companies on the one and large wholesalers and consumers on the other side as a way for both to hedge against price swings... but that's no longer the case. Hell even if you just look at the last 10 years, trading volume has exploded by ~3x (futures) / ~5x (options) [1] - but there is no economic fundamentals (e.g. production amount of farms or raw material mines) to support this, it's all financial mind-fuckery that skims off billions of "fractions of cents per transaction" and redirects them to a select few very rich people. This kind of predatory leeching has to stop, once and for all. [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/377025/global-futures-and-options-volume/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/377025/global-futures-an...
marricks 3y ago
> https://www.dailymetalprice.com/metalpricecharts.php?c=li&u=kg&d=240 https://www.dailymetalprice.com/metalpricecharts.php?c=li&u=... It looks like it's returning to its pre-pandemic levels. Demand is increasing with EV's so it's still interesting, but possibly less interesting than the title implies.
local_crmdgeon 3y ago
Repeat after me: Price Will Save Us
peter_d_sherman 3y ago
I think it would be highly interesting if physicists/scientists could figure out how to create Lithium in the lab, maybe from Helium -- or some esoteric combination of Helium, Helium isotopes, Hydrogen, Hydrogen isotopes -- and/or energy... Now that I think about it, maybe it would be possible to make Lithium from a heavier element -- such as Beryllium (the next element in Lithium's period/horizontal row) and/or Sodium (the next element in Lithium's group/family/vertical row -- that is, an element whose properties are the most similar to Lithium). But, the point is, if scientists or future scientists can do that -- then we can end this Lithium debate once and for all! Oh sure, it may initially cost, like, trillions of dollars to do this in the lab the first couple of times (the history of using particle accelerators to transmute metals is a case study in cost ineffectiveness -- but then, so is the history of early mainframe computers, and so is the history of using rockets to send satellites to orbit) but eventually with continued experimentation, the cost should become cheaper and cheaper... First you make it work -- then you make it cheap. You know, the Elon Musk school of business philosophy... First you make it work -- then you make it cheap... or at least cheaper... Which was actually, coincidentally, Henry Ford's philosophy -- and that of the early American capitalists (AKA, "The Robber Barons" -- as well)... Also, I'd put that simple philosophy against anything that anyone could learn in a Harvard, Stanford or Wharton MBA program (*) for $73,440 and one or two years of their life, plus living expenses! First you make it work -- then you make it cheap...
- pjc50 3y ago
  There's no need to do nuclear chemistry when you can fish it out of seawater. > cheaper Physics sets fundamental limitations on how much energy you need, which means your lower bound is set by energy prices. It's not that scarce, it's not something like Polonium.
  - peter_d_sherman 3y ago
    >There's no need to do nuclear chemistry when you can fish it out of seawater. I would love to see Lithium produced cheaply and efficiently from seawater as much as the next guy -- but tell me, is this a practical reality today? ? If there's a working Lithium-from-seawater extraction facility fully operating and producing Lithium at scale as of the current date -- then I have yet to see it. Would you kindly provide a link or links to web pages describing such a facility? Also, if seawater Lithium extraction is a present-day reality, then why do Lithium mines and mining operations continue to exist? I don't deny that Lithium could possibly be pulled out of seawater or any other Lithium containing substance for that matter -- but as of the present date, I haven't seen seawater Lithium extraction (like, from the actual Ocean) working and working at scale... So... Links please? But, all of this being said, Lithium extraction from seawater is indeed a great idea(!) -- if it could work and work at scale (and it quite possibly could, in the future!)
monkeydust 3y ago
Is there a good place to track prices for solar batteries? Have a system and considering a battery next year.
yinser 3y ago
If you are like me and found the editorialization a bit much from this article but want to know more I highly recommend The Limiting Factor on YouTube. https://youtu.be/xEY_CMUb8jY?si=1wWmG83NfuBSNeKZ https://youtu.be/xEY_CMUb8jY?si=1wWmG83NfuBSNeKZ Another one off that helped me get up to speed with understanding lithium was a guest lecture recently streamed at CWU on Exploring the Origin of Economic Lithium Deposits by PhD Rachel Hampton https://www.youtube.com/live/inq_ypJeiZk?si=LTQFGR07d-ypiS6_ https://www.youtube.com/live/inq_ypJeiZk?si=LTQFGR07d-ypiS6_
throwitaway222 3y ago
Worlds largest lithium deposit found in NV, a state which is 90% government owned, and we're having trouble deciding what to do. Other countries are probably going like - wow, they just found a Lithium mine and they're just going to sit on it... and they are asking us to ramp up production???
- nemo44x 3y ago
  I mean, that's sort of smart isn't it? Wouldn't you rather use someone else's resources instead of your own for as long as you can? Additionally, the deposit becomes a strategic reserve to control prices when needed.
  - jeffbee 3y ago
    It's not a strategic reserve if you don't develop the capability to timely extract and refine it.
    - vlovich123 3y ago
      Is there something unique in mining lithium that would be different from other kind of mining that America does? I feel like the capability if needed to extract and refine it within the US exists / wouldn’t be hard to develop over the course of constructing the mine, no? Also there’s a lawsuit ongoing here with Native Americans suing to stop any mining. I suspect that there’s going to be a lot of pressure to not start a mine because of how destructive they are to the environment. At the same time, I’m pretty sure the mine will happen. However, at that point you want to have the highest price of lithium possible and this is a substantial amount of lithium that would be coming on the market which would counteract any price growth.
      - jeffbee 3y ago
        > there’s a lawsuit Exactly my point. All other extraction industries in America are grandfathered in from before NEPA, before anyone gave a damn that a dead guy from the far past thought the stones were holy. America is paralyzed by its own legal system which can be wielded as a weapon by any bad-faith actor who doesn't want electrification to happen.
masto 3y ago
I guess nobody told Energizer. https://camelcamelcamel.com/product/B01C4PP8FK?cpf=amazon-new https://camelcamelcamel.com/product/B01C4PP8FK?cpf=amazon-ne... My Nest smoke detectors demand these specific batteries. They were all installed around the same time, so they all come due at once, at a cost of ~$200.
- argiopetech 3y ago
  That's probably due to long standby times. You could get away with cheap (i.e., Harbor Freight batteries at $20/20 or comparable) if you were willing to change them more frequently. I'm not sure what the actual scale of difference is between battery chemistries. Perhaps someone with more knowledge will reply and refute me.
- willcipriano 3y ago
  You have enough smoke detectors that it requires 75 - 100 batteries to power them all?
  - Cerium 3y ago
    The old Nest smoke detectors seem to use six of those batteries each. That is still a fairly high number of smoke detectors.
- megaman821 3y ago
  How long do they last? Normal lithium ion powered smoked detectors will last 10 years between battery changes.
  - kccqzy 3y ago
    That's not lithium ion batteries. That's lithium batteries which are not rechargeable so you have to buy new ones when they run out of charge.
  - masto 3y ago
    I think they claim 5 years. I don't keep track of this stuff very carefully but based on how long I've had them and being on my second round of battery replacements, I'd say I got more like 3-4 years. It's not that big a deal in the grand scheme of things, especially when the batteries were cheaper. I just got sticker shock last time I went to buy a set. Until recently at least, Energizer was the sole supplier of these batteries. You can't use anything else because they have a different voltage and discharge curve, so if you put alkaline batteries in, the Nest will almost immediately complain that they're low. I see there are some mildly sketchy other brands on Amazon now. Not sure if I'm going to take that chance.
Moldoteck 3y ago
Does this mean cheaper ebikes?
anonporridge 3y ago
"I've seen gluts not followed by shortages, but I've never seen a shortage not followed by a glut." -- Nassim Taleb
- 2OEH8eoCRo0 3y ago
  Incentives are powerful and scale.
  - anonporridge 3y ago
    "Show me the incentives and I'll show you the outcome." -- Charlie Munger
    - 2OEH8eoCRo0 3y ago
      Yep, I love that quote.
    - anonymouskimmer 3y ago
      I think the difficulty of the problem is also important to the outcome.
- anonymouskimmer 3y ago
  Over what time scale?
  - prepend 3y ago
    His attention span.
    - anonymouskimmer 3y ago
      LOL.
      - prepend 3y ago
        Not being glib. I’ve read quite a bit of Taleb’s stuff and it sounds like an observation based on how long he’s been aware of the market. Usually if he’s talking about history so if he meant some long term based on analysis, I would expect him to call it out.
throw4847285 3y ago
I guess I should stock up on my meds.
Animats 3y ago
Same thing happened in rare earths. The Mountain Pass, CA mine was shut down, reopened, shut down, reopened, shut down, and reopened since the 1980s, as prices went up and down. Probably will stay open now because rare earth usage is up.
wkat4242 3y ago
Good news for the environment really. Electric cars and storage need to be a lot cheaper to become ubiquitous.
- bromuro 3y ago
  Not that good news https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impacts_of_lithium-ion_batteries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impacts_of_lithi...
benbojangles 3y ago
Not sure it 'collapsed'. Probably leveraged to undercut oil.
- epistasis 3y ago
  Even at its peak, it barely caused a change in battery prices. It's going to be really hard to undercut oil by dropping lithium prices, as nickel is a bigger contributor to cost.
  - benbojangles 3y ago
    Nickel also down in price
    - epistasis 3y ago
      Not sure which players could cause huge shifts in both lithium and nickel commodity prices, for the goal of undercutting oil. Especially since standard learning curves deliver huge drops in battery prices year after year anyway. Seems like a futile effort.
      - benbojangles 3y ago
        future looking electric
incomingpain 3y ago
Back in the day, dinosaurs roamed, and the Model S was almost out. I had a special interest in EV conversions. 1 of the vlogs I watched had this idea, 'if we buy into lithium, then lithium batteries as they blow up in popularity, we should make lots of money' But the argument, 'there really isnt much lithium in a battery, there's loads of lithium, albeit maybe not in good forms(pure lithium go boom).' and so the investment was a poor idea. That's all this is, people think 'omg lithium ion batteries are the future' lets try to corner the market and then they fail. There will never be a lithium shortage.It's not common like iron or carbon. It's about as common as silicon or chlorine. More common then copper, zinc, nickel.
Alifatisk 3y ago
If the bubble implodes, is that the same as saying the bubble burst?

326 points by passwordoops 3y ago

AlbertCory 3y ago

Commodity prices fluctuate wildly. Fundamentals have very little to do with it.

trompetenaccoun 3y ago
You're right but it's a bit of both. There was a real shortage, we're just now slowly coming out of it. Prices are falling in anticipation because one can already see the mining capacity that's being added.
- AlbertCory 3y ago
  Could be. Commodities markets do have lots of speculators with no financial stake at all in the underlying commodity.

oatmeal1 3y ago

How does this translate to the cost of producing a lithium ion battery?

blueflow 3y ago

> CNY per tonne I somewhat expected USD but i'm not surprised. Times change.

ToucanLoucan 3y ago
I was going to comment about perhaps that's because so much of it is mined in China, but a quick google says China is a rather distant third behind Australia and Chile. The more you know.
- icegreentea2 3y ago
  China is the leading lithium refiner. The price referenced (battery grade lithium carbonate) is an output of a refinery, not a mine. There are many different numbers thrown around for China's refining share, but they are all significant, typically all > 50%.
mysterydip 3y ago
Looks like that's because it's trading in Shanghai.
cft 3y ago
Since the end of the USD as the world reserve currency is imminent, the wisest thing US government can do is promote and favor Bitcoin. It's better to have a world reserve currency that no one controls, than CNY.
- ceejayoz 3y ago
  Yes, let's run the world economy off a currency that could halve in value if Satoshi Nakamoto finds an old USB drive sitting around somewhere.
  - barelyauser 3y ago
    I suppose this is a better arrangement than the current system, where they key figures know exactly where the money printer is at all times.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
- KptMarchewa 3y ago
  Poe's law strikes again.
crazygringo 3y ago
Over half of lithium is refined in China and then sold. Since those refining costs are in domestic CNY, it makes perfect sense that the commodities price will also be quoted in CNY. Nothing to do with "times changing", everything to do with country of production. (Most commodities aren't so tied to a single country, which is why they end up in USD.)
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
deleted 3y ago
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Eumenes 3y ago

Time to stock up on lifepo4 batteries.

toomuchtodo 3y ago
Time to ramp utility scale energy storage. Make batteries while the inputs are cheap. https://www.pcienergysolutions.com/2022/04/27/how-quickly-can-the-u-s-ramp-up-battery-storage-capacity/ https://www.pcienergysolutions.com/2022/04/27/how-quickly-ca... https://www.iea.org/energy-system/electricity/grid-scale-storage https://www.iea.org/energy-system/electricity/grid-scale-sto... https://insideevs.com/news/692788/tesla-battery-energy-storage-deployment-2023q3/ https://insideevs.com/news/692788/tesla-battery-energy-stora... (edit: as the cost of renewables approaches sub $0.01/kwh wholesale, storage/transmission/distribution become the primary costs of energy)
- Eumenes 3y ago
  How challenging is it to DIY your own lithium battery packs?
  - dylan604 3y ago
    How good are you at putting out fire that doesn't mind getting wet?
    - licomo 3y ago
      That's never discouraged me from experimenting before ;) But in all seriousness, it depends on the chemistry. Li-ion? - No way I'm building my own! LiFePO4 - can come in nice prismatic cells that are easy to connect terminals with bars (just remember to keep them under compression!). Their failure mode is MUCH nicer than Li-ion. LTO - these are really interesting to me, and I am really tempted to branch out into this area. They look great from a safety perspective. Disclaimer: I have installed ~15 kWh of DIY batteries for solar.
    - s1artibartfast 3y ago

grecy 3y ago

This is fantastic news, and means the price of EVs and large utility scale batteries will continue to fall much faster than anyone predicted.

mysterydip 3y ago
It's still about 3x the lowest price from 2020. Hopefully the downward trend continues, though.
infofarmer 3y ago
Lithium is <10% cost of a battery. Presumably much less now. Doesn't affect the price of EVs that much yet.
- nicoburns 3y ago
  What makes up the majority of the cost?
  - danans 3y ago
    Other expensive materials in the cathode, manufacturing costs, and the anode are most of the major costs. A visualization: https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-cost-of-an-ev-battery-cell/ https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-cost...
    - nostrademons 3y ago
      Lithium is part of the cathode. Looks like it was more like ~20% in 2022, though it may be down closer to 10% now that the price spike is subsiding: https://thundersaidenergy.com/downloads/lithium-ion-batteries-for-electric-vehicles-what-costs/ https://thundersaidenergy.com/downloads/lithium-ion-batterie... Of note: raw materials are now ~2/3 of the total price of a battery cell, because of the continued plunge in manufacturing costs. And it's pretty well distributed across the different raw materials used. That indicates that the price may not drop all that much more without a concerted supply-chain effort.

TomK32 3y ago

Clickbaiting heading. The price is still 300% compared to the low in August 2020.

passwordoops 3y ago
And it's back to where it was in 2018. Point of the article is commodities fluctuate
esotericimpl 3y ago
[dead]
sapiogram 3y ago
I don't find it clickbaity at all. I mean, it makes it sound like the price of lithium dropped massively, but isn't that exactly what happened?
- SkyBelow 3y ago
  I think the difference is in what a drop is in regards to. A drop of a well established price indicates something has fundamentally changed to make the price go down. A drop from the peak of a large increase that is still far above the previous well established price looks more like something has fundamentally changed to make the price go up, but markets over estimated how much the price would increase. The difference is that the new price, assuming it becomes the new well established price, is lower in one situation and higher in the other. A title implying the former case when it is the latter might fall under the scope of clickbait. If the price is swinging up and down constantly and there is no well established price, then that is yet another situation which seems different from the previous two and the title might be better off capturing the unsteady nature of the price. If I make a major story that "X happened three times this year" without pointing out in the title that the historic numbers of X is 2 to 4 each year, it can be treated as a dishonest implication of some trend that doesn't exist. We know many will only read headlines and will not question the implications. This is something worth calling out even when it is over trivial matters to prevent it from being used for more serious matters.

barney54 3y ago

Where is the data on lithium production surging? It isn’t in the article, only future projects (they may or may not work.)

ceejayoz 3y ago
https://www.statista.com/statistics/606684/world-production-of-lithium/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/606684/world-production-... shows a significant surge starting in 2017. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-25-years-of-lithium-production-by-country/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-25-years-of-lit... has a per-country visualization of it; look like Australia has a big share of the increase.

aifooh7Keew6xoo 3y ago

sounds like they need to invest in some regulatory capture or maybe just all of their competitors, capitalism is only supposed to work like that in text books!

speed_spread 3y ago

Is it sodium battery tech starting to have an effect?

passwordoops 3y ago
Nope, just good old speculation in the commodities market!
- sapiogram 3y ago
  That doesn't exclude sodium batteries as a factor. Quite the opposite imo, since that technology is also highly speculative.
tooltalk 3y ago
>> Is it sodium battery tech starting to have an effect? << It's not yet mass-produced at scale or commodified to have much impact yet. The falling lithium price however could make sodium batteries less attractive.

gumby 3y ago

As famously predicted by Julian Simon back in the 70s and 80s: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon–Ehrlich_wager https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon–Ehrlich_wager

passwordoops 3y ago
Sorry to burst your bubble, but the article points out it's just good old fashioned speculation in the commodities market! Clearly there was a massive bubble over the past couple of years driven by hype. The spot price is still higher than 2020
- otherme123 3y ago
  Everyone can recognize a bubble once it pops. But the last three years, what you call "bubble" was rational (?) speculation that lithium 1) was going to be needed on a massive scale and 2) virtually all the profitable sources were already being mined. Also, between 2020 and 2023 we have a ~20% inflation, and the price is not yet stable.
  - trompetenaccoun 3y ago
    >and 2) virtually all the profitable sources were already being mined There have been massive investments in lithium mining over the past few years, especially in Western countries, partly for business and partly for strategic geopolitical reasons. So there's nothing rational about that assumption and I don't think any serious investor made it either because all this is public knowledge among insiders and easily researched. The price spikes are simply based on demand and speculation. Short term there was/is a serious shortage and that's reflected in the price. Also once production of EVs really ramps up, this could repeat. There's definitely no sign of overinvestment in terms of mining and processing.
    - otherme123 3y ago
      I was always on the side of "we will figure it out". You can see a question mark after the word "rational", because I recall arguing with very-knowledgeable-and-insider people right here, in HN, that assured that all the high yield and profitable lithium was already being mined, and no significant new lithium will be discovered. I took my downvotes for saying that if the demand increased, either the supply will also increase or an alternative will be discovered/developed. And now I'm taking my downvotes for remembering that there was no feeling of bubble (although hindsight is always 20/20), but that the price spike was based on very rational (?) analysis.

epistasis 3y ago

Even with recent price spikes on various component prices, the price of the overall good sold continues its march downwards. BNEF's annual survey showed a 14% decrease in prices (other price surveys will show different results). https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-hit-record-low-of-139-kwh/ https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-... The single component price, even of the component namesake of the battery, does not cause huge fluctuations in the overall cost of the battery due to the small amount of lithium cost in the battery and the substitution possibilities for all the other components. And there's even a chance that sodium substitution for lithium could be used in a ton of applications soon. Batteries and renewables are not like oil: a single commodity price fluctuation is not going to disrupt entire economies. They are a much more stable foundation upon which to build an economy.

Gibbon1 3y ago
Thought of mine from 20 years ago is the power available from fossil fuels has been limited since around 1970. Which is it's very price inelastic. And there will never be enough to pull the remaining 2/3rds of humanity out of poverty. The Chinese managed what they did by burning 2/3rd of their total coal reserves in the last 40 years. But what we're now seeing is the vastly larger availability and price elastic supply of solar and wind power. All this stuff, solar, wind, batteries are getting cheap and commodified. The result is the world economy isn't energy constrained for the first time in 50 years.
- epistasis 3y ago
  Good points. One thing about raising most of the world out of poverty, however, is that even with the current energy mix, it would not take much more fossil fuels, and only raise emissions by 5%. A very recent paper with this (somewhat surprising) modeling: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03627-w https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03627-w

Hayvok 3y ago

> The spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate, trading in Shanghai and serving as a benchmark I'm not sure why the Shanghai price is being used as the global benchmark without any qualification in this article, because in 2022 China was paying 2x per KG more than the U.S.A. and Europe. Everybody saw a significant increase, but nobody quite like China, where it looks like a bubble. Prices have come down globally in 2023, but the Chinese price is now much closer to the U.S. and European price. Regional price index: https://businessanalytiq.com/procurementanalytics/index/lithium-carbonate-price-index/ https://businessanalytiq.com/procurementanalytics/index/lith...

firebat45 3y ago
When you look at where the overwhelming majority of lithium batteries are produced, it makes sense to use China as the benchmark (and why it pays more than the US or Europe).
- bee_rider 3y ago
  It isn’t obvious to me (although, I am dumb about this stuff) why China would pay more for lithium if they (presumably) use more… wouldn’t we expect economies of scale and all that to make it cheaper for them?
  - nativeit 3y ago
    Only if speculators don’t ruin everyone’s fun betting from the sidelines in volumes that outpace the influence of legitimate trade.
    - xkekjrktllss 3y ago
      Are you implying that stocks are not legitimate trade? That's anti-freedom.
      - mschuster91 3y ago
        Trading in commodities futures has a point, but it has gotten absolutely ridiculous in scope. The market participants used to be farm collectives, mining companies on the one and large wholesalers and consumers on the other side as a way for both to hedge against price swings... but that's no longer the case. Hell even if you just look at the last 10 years, trading volume has exploded by ~3x (futures) / ~5x (options) [1] - but there is no economic fundamentals (e.g. production amount of farms or raw material mines) to support this, it's all financial mind-fuckery that skims off billions of "fractions of cents per transaction" and redirects them to a select few very rich people. This kind of predatory leeching has to stop, once and for all. [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/377025/global-futures-and-options-volume/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/377025/global-futures-an...

marricks 3y ago

> https://www.dailymetalprice.com/metalpricecharts.php?c=li&u=kg&d=240 https://www.dailymetalprice.com/metalpricecharts.php?c=li&u=... It looks like it's returning to its pre-pandemic levels. Demand is increasing with EV's so it's still interesting, but possibly less interesting than the title implies.

local_crmdgeon 3y ago

Repeat after me: Price Will Save Us

peter_d_sherman 3y ago

I think it would be highly interesting if physicists/scientists could figure out how to create Lithium in the lab, maybe from Helium -- or some esoteric combination of Helium, Helium isotopes, Hydrogen, Hydrogen isotopes -- and/or energy... Now that I think about it, maybe it would be possible to make Lithium from a heavier element -- such as Beryllium (the next element in Lithium's period/horizontal row) and/or Sodium (the next element in Lithium's group/family/vertical row -- that is, an element whose properties are the most similar to Lithium). But, the point is, if scientists or future scientists can do that -- then we can end this Lithium debate once and for all! Oh sure, it may initially cost, like, trillions of dollars to do this in the lab the first couple of times (the history of using particle accelerators to transmute metals is a case study in cost ineffectiveness -- but then, so is the history of early mainframe computers, and so is the history of using rockets to send satellites to orbit) but eventually with continued experimentation, the cost should become cheaper and cheaper... First you make it work -- then you make it cheap. You know, the Elon Musk school of business philosophy... First you make it work -- then you make it cheap... or at least cheaper... Which was actually, coincidentally, Henry Ford's philosophy -- and that of the early American capitalists (AKA, "The Robber Barons" -- as well)... Also, I'd put that simple philosophy against anything that anyone could learn in a Harvard, Stanford or Wharton MBA program (*) for $73,440 and one or two years of their life, plus living expenses! First you make it work -- then you make it cheap...

pjc50 3y ago
There's no need to do nuclear chemistry when you can fish it out of seawater. > cheaper Physics sets fundamental limitations on how much energy you need, which means your lower bound is set by energy prices. It's not that scarce, it's not something like Polonium.
- peter_d_sherman 3y ago
  >There's no need to do nuclear chemistry when you can fish it out of seawater. I would love to see Lithium produced cheaply and efficiently from seawater as much as the next guy -- but tell me, is this a practical reality today? ? If there's a working Lithium-from-seawater extraction facility fully operating and producing Lithium at scale as of the current date -- then I have yet to see it. Would you kindly provide a link or links to web pages describing such a facility? Also, if seawater Lithium extraction is a present-day reality, then why do Lithium mines and mining operations continue to exist? I don't deny that Lithium could possibly be pulled out of seawater or any other Lithium containing substance for that matter -- but as of the present date, I haven't seen seawater Lithium extraction (like, from the actual Ocean) working and working at scale... So... Links please? But, all of this being said, Lithium extraction from seawater is indeed a great idea(!) -- if it could work and work at scale (and it quite possibly could, in the future!)

monkeydust 3y ago

Is there a good place to track prices for solar batteries? Have a system and considering a battery next year.

yinser 3y ago

If you are like me and found the editorialization a bit much from this article but want to know more I highly recommend The Limiting Factor on YouTube. https://youtu.be/xEY_CMUb8jY?si=1wWmG83NfuBSNeKZ https://youtu.be/xEY_CMUb8jY?si=1wWmG83NfuBSNeKZ Another one off that helped me get up to speed with understanding lithium was a guest lecture recently streamed at CWU on Exploring the Origin of Economic Lithium Deposits by PhD Rachel Hampton https://www.youtube.com/live/inq_ypJeiZk?si=LTQFGR07d-ypiS6_ https://www.youtube.com/live/inq_ypJeiZk?si=LTQFGR07d-ypiS6_

throwitaway222 3y ago

Worlds largest lithium deposit found in NV, a state which is 90% government owned, and we're having trouble deciding what to do. Other countries are probably going like - wow, they just found a Lithium mine and they're just going to sit on it... and they are asking us to ramp up production???

nemo44x 3y ago
I mean, that's sort of smart isn't it? Wouldn't you rather use someone else's resources instead of your own for as long as you can? Additionally, the deposit becomes a strategic reserve to control prices when needed.
- jeffbee 3y ago
  It's not a strategic reserve if you don't develop the capability to timely extract and refine it.
  - vlovich123 3y ago
    Is there something unique in mining lithium that would be different from other kind of mining that America does? I feel like the capability if needed to extract and refine it within the US exists / wouldn’t be hard to develop over the course of constructing the mine, no? Also there’s a lawsuit ongoing here with Native Americans suing to stop any mining. I suspect that there’s going to be a lot of pressure to not start a mine because of how destructive they are to the environment. At the same time, I’m pretty sure the mine will happen. However, at that point you want to have the highest price of lithium possible and this is a substantial amount of lithium that would be coming on the market which would counteract any price growth.
    - jeffbee 3y ago
      > there’s a lawsuit Exactly my point. All other extraction industries in America are grandfathered in from before NEPA, before anyone gave a damn that a dead guy from the far past thought the stones were holy. America is paralyzed by its own legal system which can be wielded as a weapon by any bad-faith actor who doesn't want electrification to happen.

masto 3y ago

I guess nobody told Energizer. https://camelcamelcamel.com/product/B01C4PP8FK?cpf=amazon-new https://camelcamelcamel.com/product/B01C4PP8FK?cpf=amazon-ne... My Nest smoke detectors demand these specific batteries. They were all installed around the same time, so they all come due at once, at a cost of ~$200.

argiopetech 3y ago
That's probably due to long standby times. You could get away with cheap (i.e., Harbor Freight batteries at $20/20 or comparable) if you were willing to change them more frequently. I'm not sure what the actual scale of difference is between battery chemistries. Perhaps someone with more knowledge will reply and refute me.
willcipriano 3y ago
You have enough smoke detectors that it requires 75 - 100 batteries to power them all?
- Cerium 3y ago
  The old Nest smoke detectors seem to use six of those batteries each. That is still a fairly high number of smoke detectors.
megaman821 3y ago
How long do they last? Normal lithium ion powered smoked detectors will last 10 years between battery changes.
- kccqzy 3y ago
  That's not lithium ion batteries. That's lithium batteries which are not rechargeable so you have to buy new ones when they run out of charge.
- masto 3y ago
  I think they claim 5 years. I don't keep track of this stuff very carefully but based on how long I've had them and being on my second round of battery replacements, I'd say I got more like 3-4 years. It's not that big a deal in the grand scheme of things, especially when the batteries were cheaper. I just got sticker shock last time I went to buy a set. Until recently at least, Energizer was the sole supplier of these batteries. You can't use anything else because they have a different voltage and discharge curve, so if you put alkaline batteries in, the Nest will almost immediately complain that they're low. I see there are some mildly sketchy other brands on Amazon now. Not sure if I'm going to take that chance.

Moldoteck 3y ago

Does this mean cheaper ebikes?

anonporridge 3y ago

"I've seen gluts not followed by shortages, but I've never seen a shortage not followed by a glut." -- Nassim Taleb

2OEH8eoCRo0 3y ago
Incentives are powerful and scale.
- anonporridge 3y ago
  "Show me the incentives and I'll show you the outcome." -- Charlie Munger
  - 2OEH8eoCRo0 3y ago
    Yep, I love that quote.
  - anonymouskimmer 3y ago
    I think the difficulty of the problem is also important to the outcome.
anonymouskimmer 3y ago
Over what time scale?
- prepend 3y ago
  His attention span.
  - anonymouskimmer 3y ago
    LOL.
    - prepend 3y ago
      Not being glib. I’ve read quite a bit of Taleb’s stuff and it sounds like an observation based on how long he’s been aware of the market. Usually if he’s talking about history so if he meant some long term based on analysis, I would expect him to call it out.

throw4847285 3y ago

I guess I should stock up on my meds.

Animats 3y ago

Same thing happened in rare earths. The Mountain Pass, CA mine was shut down, reopened, shut down, reopened, shut down, and reopened since the 1980s, as prices went up and down. Probably will stay open now because rare earth usage is up.

wkat4242 3y ago

Good news for the environment really. Electric cars and storage need to be a lot cheaper to become ubiquitous.

bromuro 3y ago
Not that good news https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impacts_of_lithium-ion_batteries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impacts_of_lithi...

benbojangles 3y ago

Not sure it 'collapsed'. Probably leveraged to undercut oil.

epistasis 3y ago
Even at its peak, it barely caused a change in battery prices. It's going to be really hard to undercut oil by dropping lithium prices, as nickel is a bigger contributor to cost.
- benbojangles 3y ago
  Nickel also down in price
  - epistasis 3y ago
    Not sure which players could cause huge shifts in both lithium and nickel commodity prices, for the goal of undercutting oil. Especially since standard learning curves deliver huge drops in battery prices year after year anyway. Seems like a futile effort.
    - benbojangles 3y ago
      future looking electric

incomingpain 3y ago

Back in the day, dinosaurs roamed, and the Model S was almost out. I had a special interest in EV conversions. 1 of the vlogs I watched had this idea, 'if we buy into lithium, then lithium batteries as they blow up in popularity, we should make lots of money' But the argument, 'there really isnt much lithium in a battery, there's loads of lithium, albeit maybe not in good forms(pure lithium go boom).' and so the investment was a poor idea. That's all this is, people think 'omg lithium ion batteries are the future' lets try to corner the market and then they fail. There will never be a lithium shortage.It's not common like iron or carbon. It's about as common as silicon or chlorine. More common then copper, zinc, nickel.

Alifatisk 3y ago

If the bubble implodes, is that the same as saying the bubble burst?