8 ms·

> With the right leadership and investment in human capital, it can pull an SK or it uses the temporary economic might to coerce other countries to allow them

by chii 3y ago

> With the right leadership and investment in human capital, it can pull an SK or it uses the temporary economic might to coerce other countries to allow them to solidify their current advantage, as the first step in empire building?

alephnerd 3y ago
> as the first step in empire building Highly unlikely because the world of Infrastructure Development Financing (the closest thing to empire building without guns and soldiers) is a highly competitive one. The American, EU, Australian, and Japanese funds get the best projects, and the remaining ones (mostly in LDCs) go to upstarts in the space like China, Korea, Taiwan, Israel, Türkiye, Saudi, UAE, South Africa, India, Qatar, Thailand, Pakistan, Indonesia, Egypt, Russia, Mexico, and Brazil. Most OBOR projects failed because they were projects most other lenders like the ADB or WB wouldn't touch because of their risk profile. There's a reason why when SK was in a similar position as China today in the 90s and 2000s, they went all in on investing in China and ASEAN. Hell, the Japanese did the same thing in South Korea in the 70s and 80s. China doesn't really have a similar option. Most of the stable ASEAN members (Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines) prefer Japanese, Korean, or Singaporean FDI, and the only other China-esque market for China to potentially invest in is India, which has made operating a Chinese owned subsidiary a living hell while rolling a red carpet to Japanese, French, Singaporean, Gulf (excluding Qatar), American, and Israeli investors.
- gerad 3y ago
  Africa?
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    Africa is not a country. It's a continent with 54 countries which in turn have dozens of provinces/states/subdivisions each. Also, France, Brazil, US, UK, Italy, Türkiye, Saudi, UAE, India, Pakistan, Qatar, Egypt, South Africa, and Russia all have stakes and investments all over Africa that outcompete Chinese investment (depending on the country).
    - azmodeus 3y ago
      My impression from hearing about the Belt and Road initiative was China was dominant in Africa overall. So on a continental level is China the biggest investor?
      - alephnerd 3y ago
        It's on a country to country basis. Africa is big. That said, "European investors remain, by far, the largest holders of FDI stock in Africa, led by the United Kingdom ($60 billion), France ($54 billion) and the Netherlands ($54 billion)" [0]. China's OBOR tends to be infamous largely for it's infeasibility. It's the IDC equivalent of a subprime loan, as most OBOR projects in Africa tended to be those that larger FDI contributors decided to pass on. There is a regional segmentation aspect as well. Africa is large and some regions saw outsized Chinese investment (DRC for example), but in other regions there was much more competition. For example, most FDI in the Horn of Africa (Djibouti, Eritrea, and Somalia) and North Africa came from Europe, Türkiye, and the Gulf States. In the former British colonies in East Africa (Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, South Sudan), Indian Ocean (Seychelles, Mauritius), and Mozambique Chinese companies were directly competing with long established Indian and Pakistani conglomerates due to the centuries old existing Asian business community in the region. In Southern Africa China would be competing with South Africa along with smaller players like India. I can't speak for the rest of Africa, but I've seen China having a significant impact in West Africa and the DRC. [0] - https://unctad.org/press-material/investment-flows-africa-dropped-45-billion-2022 https://unctad.org/press-material/investment-flows-africa-dr...
xwolfi 3y ago
If you dont make children, who will be the soldiers building that empire? Im in China myself, I dont see blood thirsty imperialists, plotting land grabs all around, I see an exhausted aimless populace going on in a desperate forward escape towards a childless greying future, surrounded by foreign healthcare labour, led by panicked politicians shouting meaningless patriotic slogans against the wind as the boat sink further and further My wife, whom I tried to discourage from buying property, entered negative equity on her 40-year studio mortgage she s not allowed to rent out as half her family already emigrated to the UK to reconvert from high paid service jobs to low paid blue collar jobs because at least there they can raise kids. I dont get why americans are scared of us: we're just as scared of them. It's not going well here.
- alephnerd 3y ago
  > I dont get why americans are scared of us: we're just as scared of them. Agreed. I'm not pro-CCP in any way, shape, or form, but the rhetoric and jingoism coming from politicians in both the US and China is stupid, and will end up causing an accidental escalation. Look at the whole balloon fiasco. Relations really need to normalize or the world is in a world of hurt. I also blame a lack of English and Mandarin fluency in China and US respectively for causing this issue. The average Chinese or American doesn't get a chance to see life on the other side, so people end up building orientalized images. Also, ime on the Hill, most of the people making China policy weren't Asian American nor had strong experience with Chinese (or Asian in general) culture on the ground. A lot of this was due to imo discriminatory hiring practices that prevented people with "ties" to a specific region from becoming a specialist for that area.
  - TerrifiedMouse 3y ago
    I doubt it’s a language or cultural problem. The CCP just aren’t very nice people. US politicians are taking advantage of the situation to score populist points at home - but their caution towards China isn’t totally unwarranted.
    - alephnerd 3y ago

by chii 3y ago

alephnerd 3y ago

> as the first step in empire building Highly unlikely because the world of Infrastructure Development Financing (the closest thing to empire building without guns and soldiers) is a highly competitive one. The American, EU, Australian, and Japanese funds get the best projects, and the remaining ones (mostly in LDCs) go to upstarts in the space like China, Korea, Taiwan, Israel, Türkiye, Saudi, UAE, South Africa, India, Qatar, Thailand, Pakistan, Indonesia, Egypt, Russia, Mexico, and Brazil. Most OBOR projects failed because they were projects most other lenders like the ADB or WB wouldn't touch because of their risk profile. There's a reason why when SK was in a similar position as China today in the 90s and 2000s, they went all in on investing in China and ASEAN. Hell, the Japanese did the same thing in South Korea in the 70s and 80s. China doesn't really have a similar option. Most of the stable ASEAN members (Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines) prefer Japanese, Korean, or Singaporean FDI, and the only other China-esque market for China to potentially invest in is India, which has made operating a Chinese owned subsidiary a living hell while rolling a red carpet to Japanese, French, Singaporean, Gulf (excluding Qatar), American, and Israeli investors.

gerad 3y ago
Africa?
- alephnerd 3y ago
  Africa is not a country. It's a continent with 54 countries which in turn have dozens of provinces/states/subdivisions each. Also, France, Brazil, US, UK, Italy, Türkiye, Saudi, UAE, India, Pakistan, Qatar, Egypt, South Africa, and Russia all have stakes and investments all over Africa that outcompete Chinese investment (depending on the country).
  - azmodeus 3y ago
    My impression from hearing about the Belt and Road initiative was China was dominant in Africa overall. So on a continental level is China the biggest investor?
    - alephnerd 3y ago
      It's on a country to country basis. Africa is big. That said, "European investors remain, by far, the largest holders of FDI stock in Africa, led by the United Kingdom ($60 billion), France ($54 billion) and the Netherlands ($54 billion)" [0]. China's OBOR tends to be infamous largely for it's infeasibility. It's the IDC equivalent of a subprime loan, as most OBOR projects in Africa tended to be those that larger FDI contributors decided to pass on. There is a regional segmentation aspect as well. Africa is large and some regions saw outsized Chinese investment (DRC for example), but in other regions there was much more competition. For example, most FDI in the Horn of Africa (Djibouti, Eritrea, and Somalia) and North Africa came from Europe, Türkiye, and the Gulf States. In the former British colonies in East Africa (Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, South Sudan), Indian Ocean (Seychelles, Mauritius), and Mozambique Chinese companies were directly competing with long established Indian and Pakistani conglomerates due to the centuries old existing Asian business community in the region. In Southern Africa China would be competing with South Africa along with smaller players like India. I can't speak for the rest of Africa, but I've seen China having a significant impact in West Africa and the DRC. [0] - https://unctad.org/press-material/investment-flows-africa-dropped-45-billion-2022 https://unctad.org/press-material/investment-flows-africa-dr...

xwolfi 3y ago

If you dont make children, who will be the soldiers building that empire? Im in China myself, I dont see blood thirsty imperialists, plotting land grabs all around, I see an exhausted aimless populace going on in a desperate forward escape towards a childless greying future, surrounded by foreign healthcare labour, led by panicked politicians shouting meaningless patriotic slogans against the wind as the boat sink further and further My wife, whom I tried to discourage from buying property, entered negative equity on her 40-year studio mortgage she s not allowed to rent out as half her family already emigrated to the UK to reconvert from high paid service jobs to low paid blue collar jobs because at least there they can raise kids. I dont get why americans are scared of us: we're just as scared of them. It's not going well here.

alephnerd 3y ago
> I dont get why americans are scared of us: we're just as scared of them. Agreed. I'm not pro-CCP in any way, shape, or form, but the rhetoric and jingoism coming from politicians in both the US and China is stupid, and will end up causing an accidental escalation. Look at the whole balloon fiasco. Relations really need to normalize or the world is in a world of hurt. I also blame a lack of English and Mandarin fluency in China and US respectively for causing this issue. The average Chinese or American doesn't get a chance to see life on the other side, so people end up building orientalized images. Also, ime on the Hill, most of the people making China policy weren't Asian American nor had strong experience with Chinese (or Asian in general) culture on the ground. A lot of this was due to imo discriminatory hiring practices that prevented people with "ties" to a specific region from becoming a specialist for that area.
- TerrifiedMouse 3y ago
  I doubt it’s a language or cultural problem. The CCP just aren’t very nice people. US politicians are taking advantage of the situation to score populist points at home - but their caution towards China isn’t totally unwarranted.
  - alephnerd 3y ago