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September was the most anomalously hot month ever
- dgudkov 3y ago"ever" is added for sensationalism and actually means "during the (relatively short) period of climate observations starting from 1991". PS. September was quite warm, indeed.
- Engineering-MD 3y agoBit longer than that. BBC has a good graph actually. Goes back to 1940. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67017021 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67017021
- dgudkov 3y agoThe article mentions 1991. 1940 is better, but not by a large extent and definitely not enough to justify the use of "ever".
- skilled 3y agoRelated, 2023 on track to be the warmest year on record (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37776748 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37776748) Linking directly to the above study since the submission has no comments, Copernicus: September 2023 – unprecedented temperature anomalies (https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-september-2023-unprecedented-temperature-anomalies https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-september-2023-unpr...)
- ggambetta 3y ago...until October 2023, probably :(
- yakattak 3y agoCan someone help me understand why when there’s a record cold month, there’s a convo like this > non-believer: “see global warming doesn’t exist” > believer: “you can’t measure this on a monthly scale, it’s too slow of a process” But often when the case is reversed, it’s used as evidence of global warming? I know global warming is real and I am a firm believer in it but this duality seems to cause a lot of issues when discussing global warming.
- _fizz_buzz_ 3y agoWhere and when did this conversation of a global record cold month happen? I have never seen this.
- Condition1952 3y agoGlobal warming is not a belief. It’s just a theory, like gravity
- thefascistleft 3y ago[flagged]
- bscphil 3y agoIt's not, taken in complete isolation, evidence for global warming. It's an example of it. When people call something evidence in this sense, they mean it colloquially - that it is an exemplar of an overall body of evidence that points in a particular direction. The record cold month is part of the same body of evidence that, overall, points to the existence of global warming, but it isn't an exemplar of that evidence, so it doesn't get called "evidence" colloquially. Similarly, an individual fossil might be called evidence of evolution, but nobody thinks you should take this one fossil as a knockdown argument that evolution is real. On the other hand, when a strange fossil that's anomalous with the rest of the record is uncovered, a creationist might call this "evidence that evolution is false", but just as in the record cold month case, it's correct to point out that you shouldn't be looking at individual fossils. So what's happening here is that people are using the word "evidence" in a rather casual manner. Properly, what we're talking about here is an example, and in this case it's a very pertinent example because people have been given a concrete picture of what the world might look like on a regular basis in the near future. (Obviously there are some members of the public who really do think a single month is proof of global warming, or vice versa, but I'm trying not to strawman anyone here.)
- jonahrd 3y agoDo we ever record record cold months on a global scale? My understanding is that globally, we keep seeing record warm months. Perhaps locally there are some record cold months but that's much less _news_ than the entre global average.
- jgilias 3y agoSo… Why is there a climate scientist working for a payments processor?
- rafram 3y agoStripe has a carbon removal division: https://stripe.com/climate https://stripe.com/climate
- WarOnPrivacy 3y ago> Why is there a climate scientist working for a payments processor? Without any explanatory details, this seems like a non-sequitur. Or are you making a joke? Is this like the surrealist painters and bathtub one?
- mc32 3y agoIt could be part of a clever marketing strategy. If enough people believe isn something they are likely to pay a premium for services that satisfy their beliefs.
- raverbashing 3y agoBecause some people can notice trends and plan for the future (While some people will deny the problem exists until they're literally underwater)
- Eumenes 3y agoStop noticing things!
- robjan 3y agoI'm not sure about Stripe in particular but many financial institutions are tracking the top 10 global risks published by the World Economic Forum. The number one 10 year risk is "Failure to mitigate climate change". In total 6 of the top 10 are directly related to climate change and 3 are indirectly related e.g "Large scale involuntary migration" and "Erosion of social cohesion"
- deleted 3y ago
- photochemsyn 3y agoThere's an interesting theory that surface warming of the Earth is proceeding in a staircase fashion, due to modulation of fossil-fuel-forced warming by El Nino events: http://euanmearns.com/the-staircase-hypothesis-an-alternative-explanation-for-the-recent-global-warming/ http://euanmearns.com/the-staircase-hypothesis-an-alternativ... The driving mechanism for this phenomena would be release of stored heat from the oceans (which have been steadily absorbing much of the energy being trapped by increased atmospheric IR-absorbing gases like CO2 and CH4) during El Nino events. > "The oceans can at times soak up a lot of heat. Some goes into the deep oceans where it can stay for centuries. But heat absorbed closer to the surface can easily flow back into the air. That happened in 1998, which made it one of the hottest years on record. (Trenberth 2013, see above source)" This forms a prediction of sorts: if there is an another strong ENSO event this year, another stepwise climb of the staircase should play out over the next decade. Note that even if we eliminated fossil fuel use and deforestation in a year, due to the long-term buffering effect of the ocean, it would take at least a century for the Earth's surface temperature to stabilize (assuming we don't trigger some 'natural' effect like massive marine sediment methane destabilization, etc.). This means as much effort will need to be devoted to adaptation to new conditions as to elimination of fossil fuels from the energy mix, assuming that we all agree that civilizational stability is a desirable goal. Not eliminating fossil fuels and continuing with business as usual for the next few decades (*the current plan of all fossil fuel producers and affiliated nation-states from the USA to Venezuela to Saudi Arabia to Russia) means that when we do eventually stop, we're in a worse long-term prognosis.
- mattdeboard 3y ago> assuming that we all agree that civilizational stability is a desirable goal. Sadly this assumption does not seem to hold.
- esarbe 3y agoNot if that it requires me to reduce my conspicuous consumption by one cent! I've been trained all my life by media and advertisment to equate the acquisition of cheaply produced, low quality trash with freedom, and you can take it from my cold dead hands. I need to continue buying all that useless crap to feel I have status!
- 29athrowaway 3y agoArctic methane permafrost is melting
- unlikelymordant 3y agoYoud expect much bigger increases in atmospheric methane if that were the case i think: https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_ch4/ https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_ch4/
- chakintosh 3y agoJust like August, July, June, May, April ...
- naiv 3y ago[flagged]
- megabless123 3y agoif only ice age cycles were responsible for the current crisis
- pjdesno 3y agoUm, no. Looking at NASA's climate graph: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/GlobalWarming/page3.php https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/GlobalWarming/pag... the most rapid upswing rose almost 10C in 1850 or so years, or about 0.5C per century. (the total change was a bit more, maybe 12-13C) In addition, you've evidently failed to notice that we're currently *not* in an ice age, which means that mean temperatures are near the peak estimated values over the last 800,000 years. Living in the Boston area, I've definitely noticed that my house isn't covered with a thousand feet of ice that's scraping it south towards Long Island...
- steve_adams_86 3y agoThe last 100 years and our current trend doesn’t fit any cycle we have evidence for, spanning millions of years of proxy records.
- badcppdev 3y agohttps://www.defense.gov/News/Feature-Stories/story/Article/2128446/during-wwii-industries-transitioned-from-peacetime-to-wartime-production/ https://www.defense.gov/News/Feature-Stories/story/Article/2... I think the Overton window needs to shift soon to include the idea that widespread government intervention will be required to avoid 800 million climate refugees
- lm28469 3y ago> will be required to avoid 800 million climate refugees "to handle" or "to mitigate" it's way to late for "to avoid"
- badcppdev 3y agoI would like to be an optimist and disagree with you but my optimism is being used with hoping that I don't end up stuck on the wrong side of the planet to my family when airlines have to start charging for the impact of the carbon released.
- Hamuko 3y agoI get a feeling it'll be "handled" in the same manner that it's "handled" in Cyberpunk 2077 if that's the scale that we're talking about. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UamAMzVT4YA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UamAMzVT4YA
- stevenwoo 3y agoThe one plausible thing I found in Ministry for the Future was a country in a large scale heat crisis, India, putting a lot more pollution in the air to short term delay the warming trend over India.
- zemvpferreira 3y agoWe do need to urgently discuss the role of the first world towards massive third world calamities. I'm a global warming believer, but I'm starting to question whether the planet warming won't actually be posivite for a lot of first world economies. More solar power, less money spent on heating, less dependent on foreign resources etc etc etc. Meanwhile, poor countries will take the brunt of the disasters due to geography and lack of own resources. If the rich turn out richer and the poor poorer due to man-made global warming, I do believe we owe them help as a restitutive obligation.
- yosito 3y agoI was just remarking to a friend in Budapest today that it's already October, but all of the trees are still green like it's the middle of July. Very bizzare.
- ChatGTP 3y agoNoticed the same thing myself today. Not long until winter and it feels like a mild summers day.
- yosito 3y agoWinter? Winter might be cancelled this year.
- ChatGTP 3y agoIt snowed the day after I made this comment and seems to have become quite cold without much on the forecast of it warming back up again...so ha!
- reducesuffering 3y agoNot long? You guys realize summer ended 14 days ago. We're only 14 days into Fall / Autumn, 2.5 months to go.
- nologic01 3y ago> Two main factors are at play in driving temperatures to such extremes: their inexorable increase from burning fossil fuels and an El Niño event that is shaping up to be a strong one. It would be quite educational to attribute in more detail the impact of these two factors. The degree of "El Nino" influence is presumably known, and if its strength is not related with global warming in complicated and unknown ways it would be good to overlay it as a distinct effect. Being clear about what is happening and why (to the extend that it is known and understood) is important, on at least two counts: There is already a segment of the population that drifts into panic and depression as a result of all the viral social media climate change echo chambers. Panic is not the way to address our sustainability challenges that are deep-seated and systemic. The flip side of short-term focused panic is switching off into apathy, or even cry-wolf type incredulity - if a few years down the line these extremes are temporarily subdued. The other segment of the population that can be affected by a clear and well founded explanation of what is happening are those sitting on the fence about climate change or feeling skeptical for legitimate reasons. Obviously nothing will convince nut-cases or deeply compromised individuals that have large personal stake in the status-quo (and they are many).
- hotpotamus 3y agoPerhaps those drifting into panic and depression are doing so because we are now clearly seeing undeniable effects and yet denial persists while CO2 emissions creep up seemingly inexorably?
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- aaomidi 3y agoHonestly I’m getting tired of the “thinkers” who are just _don’t panic_. That statement just comes across as so disconnected and also doesn’t actually accomplish something. If someone is panicking, the correct solution here is to show that there’s a realistic attempt at solving the problem. Not dismissing their valid feelings of dread and panic.
- nicbou 3y agoThis is just so unbelievably sad. How should one react to their powerlessness as an individual in the face of this looming catastrophe?
- jahnu 3y agoLatest Mindscape episode might interest you. https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2023/10/02/252-hannah-ritchie-on-keeping-hope-for-the-planet-alive/ https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2023/10/02/252-...
- TheBigSalad 3y agoOur power grid is naturally getting more energy efficient and the human population will hopefully start to decline soon.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- maipen 3y ago[flagged]
- bratbag 3y agoYou understand they were talking about people having fewer children than they used to. Right? Just on that basis, some people alive right now will live to see the global population shrink.
- maipen 3y ago> will hopefully start He is not stating that it will decline, he is implying that he wishes it's decline. Population decline is bad for everyone. We need more human beings. The bigger the pool the more likely some "einsteins" will pop up and advance the human civilization.
- saulpw 3y ago
- karol 3y ago[flagged]
- seanw444 3y agoUnfortunately in my area, it's consensus that this year sucked with how consistently cold and stormy it was. Summer felt like nothing, and fall wasted no time swooping in.
- croes 3y agoMosquitos and other insects have the same hopes too.
- Oletros 3y agoUntil there is more drought and less crops But the weather was sunny
- ilyt 3y ago*so far
- continuitylimit 3y agoLast week of September in NYC was the coldest I remember this time of year. Rainy, windy and cold.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- continuitylimit 3y ago[This is just data - I’m sure it was “abnormally hot” in many places, but NYC was not one of those places. Believe it or not, 2000 and 1960 were just randomly picked out of a hat and the only other dates I tried fwiw] September 1960: https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/usa/new-york/historic?month=9&year=1960 https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/usa/new-york/historic?mo... September 2000: https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/usa/new-york/historic?month=9&year=2000 https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/usa/new-york/historic?mo... September 2023: https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/usa/new-york/historic?month=9&year=2023 https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/usa/new-york/historic?mo... 2000 was a “hot” September.
- ChatGTP 3y agoYour point is ?
- Projectiboga 3y agoNYC will and nearby will hold on just a little longer as all the ice water from Greenland is holding our temps down some, more in the spring, early summer but even now in early Autumn. This won't last over the years. Ice takes lots of energy to melt, but it takes much less energy to warm water beyond that.
- karaterobot 3y agoI think these sorts of headlines are intended to raise awareness of climate change, but I conjecture the effect they have for some (or many, or even most) people is to make them throw up their hands and say "well, what can I do about it?". I know that, after seeing so many of them, they've stopped shocking me. They just make me feel a little sad. I suspect in the future I'll be numb to them, and they'll have lost any supposed power to inspire action. While any individual instance of record temperatures is alarming, enough of them, one after another, creates a narrative of powerlessness or hopelessness that is redundant and unproductive.
- jgreen10 3y agoDecades of optimism along the lines of "something bad is coming, but we can still fix it" did way too little. Perhaps now that it's actually bad something might happen. At this point, geo engineering is probably the safer option compared to letting the planet spiral into an uninhabitable waste land. Of course, it should be combined with cheap and abundant renewable/nuclear energy. Now that things are bad, there might actually be popular support for this, though we may still have to wait for the current political class to retire.
- louwrentius 3y agoA constant 18C-20C degrees in September here in The Netherlands is absolutely insane. Heck, it's now 18C in the first week of October and at this rate I believe Oktober may not dip below 10C and also set a new record. And we go about our day as if nothing is happening. Yet the people peaceful protesting against fossil fuel subsidy blocking a street (A12) are the crazy people and should be violently removed from the road. This isn't going to end well because people will vote so they can cling to their comforts at the expense of others.
- MandieD 3y agoNot sure if I've told you before, but wanted to let you know that your solar-powered blog posts, in particular your DIY larger LiFePO4 battery, finally helped me understand some stuff about domestic solar that I'd previously failed to grasp.
- louwrentius 3y agoOk, thank you! Can you share what part/subject did I clarify in my article?
- swayvil 3y agoPowerbill tripled, food doubled, taxes steadily increasing. Scrabbling for dollars. My attention is consumed. None to spare for "existential crises". Is it a conspiracy?
- maipen 3y agoAnd yet none of it actualy makes a difference for climate change :) You can tax people to death and still complain the weather is hot and its the end of days. It's a scam and will always be.
- skymast 3y ago[dead]
- medellin 3y agoIt sure still feels like mid summer in a place where i normally have to wear a hoodie most days i have instead been racking up a nice AC bill this month.
- ChatGTP 3y ago"Climate science debunked"
- Zigurd 3y ago[flagged]
- thefascistleft 3y ago[flagged]
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- anonyfox 3y ago... so far! people that point out these kind of messages are becoming the norm (hottest X ever) every month/year and are annoyed by this are _so close_ to get the problem.
- goodbyesf 3y agoMy experience with climate change fearmongering. 'Most ever' turns out to be 'the last few decades'. Lets see shall we? Headline: "September Was the Most Anomalously Hot Month Ever" In the article: "September was the most anomalously warm month ever recorded." So september was the most anomalously hot month ever 'recorded'? So what? The last 50 years? 100 years? Which isn't saying a lot. They always misrepresent and lie and fearmonger. But why? Since the 90s, 'global warming' ( now climate change ) was supposed to have ended the earth and humanity a dozen times already. Yet we are all still here. Just like the same peak oil nonsense. Remember when oil was supposed to run out and civilization was supposed to collapse?
- Aerbil313 3y agoPlease calm down and research deeper everything you said, for the preparation and thus wellbeing of yourself and your loved ones. I have no incentive to tell anyone that actual Collapse is the civilization is going on since 1971 (the first year Earth Overshoot Day happened) and will accelerate very soon in the future to cause billions of deaths. I have no incentive, it's a nasty, dark and grim topic, except the fact that I care about another human being's life and wellbeing. Or maybe just look up Earth Overshoot Day. The Collapse is as inevitable as it gets.
- epups 3y agoI think we should start talking about geoengineering again. It seems clear that the pace of what we are doing will not be sufficient to avert a disaster at this point. I think there are enormous risks involved with, say, stratospheric aerosol release, but the status quo seems even worse at the moment.
- DrSchulz 3y ago[dead]
- DrSchulz 3y ago[dead]
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- zirgs 3y agoYup - it felt like the summer has been shifted forward by one month.
- crooked-v 3y ago"The most anomalously hot month ever so far," to repurpose a quote from a certain yellow father. I've been thinking about whether I should try to buy some Alaskan real estate while I have the chance. Sure, I have no plans to live there right now, but it might be real handy in a few decades...
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- RansomStark 3y agoYet! September was the most anomalously hot month yet. Jokes aside, and i know its only 1 small area, and the effect might not scale, but where I'm living the weather forecast is suggesting October is going to be worse, the next 2 weeks is expected to be 7 degrees celsius higher than average all day every day
- tutfbhuf 3y agoThis sounds like another instance of Eternal September.
- 93po 3y agoWhy does Stripe have a full time climate scientist?
- t0bia_s 3y agoLast winter was extremely long. I remember that first warm days when I was able to go out without a jacket was mid/late May. So summer days move.
- Corrado 3y agoI have a question; if some of the worlds trillionaires suddenly decided to dedicate massive amounts of funds to fighting climate change, would it work? Could we solve this problem simply by throwing money at it? For example, nuclear power plants generally take a lot of resources and time to build. Is there enough money in the world to throw at the problem to build 1,000 nuclear power plants in the next 5 years? Or what if solar panels and household batteries became free to everyone on the planet? Would that solve the problem? I know that changing people's minds and changing laws are hard to do, but is there enough money in the world to make it happen? Money makes laws all the time and giving people free stuff generally makes them compliant.
- krmboya 3y agoThe exceedingly wealthy live lives that are most disconnected from hard reality. In a sense, they've abstracted themselves from concerns of a typical human being because they are very atypical, extreme outliers, in view of human history. Thanks to technological development. If one wants to solve problems of the masses, find one of the masses who lives and breathes it