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An 80's movie dream is playing out for some rural kids, where they stumble upon a smouldering high-tech wreckage and as they explore it, men in suits pour out o

An 80's movie dream is playing out for some rural kids, where they stumble upon a smouldering high-tech wreckage and as they explore it, men in suits pour out of black SUVs and talk to them in taciturn ways. Seriously though, these jets sound terribly overpriced for how unreliable they seem to be.

Rebelgecko 3y ago
I think so far the F-35 has had 1 death and maybe half a dozen crashes in hundreds of thousands of hours of operation. Just from perusing the stats for other military planes that seems pretty good actually.
weinzierl 3y ago
Maybe you are thinking of The Machine-Gunners [1]. I loved to watch the BBC adaption as a kid. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Machine_Gunners https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Machine_Gunners
- gadders 3y ago
  I was thinking more The Nightmare Man [1]. Scared the absolute piss out of me as a kid and I don't think it was even on that late: https://ayearinthecountry.co.uk/the-nightmare-man-part-1-cold-war-paranoia-and-the-island-as-restorative-balm-and-other-wanderings-42-52/ https://ayearinthecountry.co.uk/the-nightmare-man-part-1-col...
nradov 3y ago
The F-35 has a lower mishap rate and higher availability rate than most other tactical aircraft.
mensetmanusman 3y ago
An iPhone would be over a billion dollars if we only made 40.
- cypress66 3y ago
  There's a lot of very low volume niche Chinese phones for reasonable prices. So it doesn't need to be so expensive. You could argue that an iPhone would cost over a billion because you need to develop iOS. But why would you do that instead of modding android for 1/100th of the cost, if you're only gonna make 40?
  - ncallaway 3y ago
    The hardware for the niche Chinese phones can only be so cheap, because an ecosystem exists around the mass production that is built around the mainstream iPhone and Android devices. If not for the insane scale of phones being developed, the components that go into those cheap Chinese phones would be far far far more expensive than they are today.
    - bumby 3y ago
      This assumes the aircraft analogy uses all one-off parts, no? It would be interesting to see if there's any data available on this. I would expect big ticket items like the engines to be bespoke, but even they would likely use some common parts. I'd imagine it's not likely every seal or bolt would be unique to that airframe.
      - ncallaway 3y ago
        Cheap Chinese phones get to take the mass production benefits of the iPhone and Android markets and then *relax* most of the requirements to get cheaper parts. The military tends to *tighten* the requirements when it’s procuring parts, so more things end up as custom development. I have no idea what ratio something like an F-35 is for COTS vs custom hardware, though.
        bumby 3y ago
        I’m not sure there’s much relaxing in quality control in aerospace. The specs are already pretty tight.
kunwon1 3y ago
I'm no expert on aircraft procurement or government contracts (I'm an engineer who used to work on fighter jets) - that being said, it's my understanding that the F-35 is actually a very successful project, and a very affordable one at that. I haven't got any citations or evidence to present, I could be wrong about all of this, it's a topic I've got only casual knowledge about. A broad overview of my understanding of the situation: Most critics are making unfair comparisons (e.g. criticizing the F-35 for its inability to dogfight, or comparing its cost to 4th generation fighters, rather than its 5th generation peers) This argument is further complicated by (as I understand it) a general lack of knowledge in the west concerning the true cost of Russian and Chinese 5th generation fighters (PAK FA and Su-57) All of that being said, I think this is a heavily politicized topic, and I can never discount the possibility that I've been hoodwinked when it comes to such matters.
- SonicScrub 3y ago
  https://www.aviacionline.com/2022/01/f-35-cheaper-than-the-gripen/ https://www.aviacionline.com/2022/01/f-35-cheaper-than-the-g... Specific figures will differ depending on how exactly one calculates acquisition costs. These numbers differ depending on the acquiring country, the block numbers, etc. But as rule of thumb the F-35 cost is roughly 10 million USD cheaper than the much less capable Gripen. This is notable as the Gripen is being marketed as the cheaper alternative. The F-35 has much higher operational costs (mostly due to the costs of maintaining stealth coating), but here's the opinion of the Finish and Swiss governments on full life-cycle costs from the article: > However, both the Swiss and Finnish authorities argued that the F-35 was the best cost/benefit investment, if its full life-cycle economics were taken into account.
  - flakeoil 3y ago
    From the article the cost per flight hour is around $8,000 for Gripen and $33,300 for the F35A. The Finish and Swiss most likely have no clue what the final full life-cycle costs will be. No-one knows this cost. The US who sold it knows a bit more than the Finns and the Swiss, but not even they know. Time will tell. The F35 program has overrun it's costs over and over. The purchase price of the F35A (the conventional version) is being artificially low as a lot of the costs have been pushed onto the F35B and F35C models so they can offer an attractive price for their exports. It's all politics at the end anyway. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-35_Lightning_II https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-35_Lightning...
SonicScrub 3y ago
The F-35 is cheaper than it's contemporaries, and has a lower accident rate.
dr-detroit 3y ago
[dead]
jameshart 3y ago
You don’t hear about the ones that don’t crash. To determine that this crash is evidence of unreliability would require you to have detailed knowledge of the operational and training volume and tempo they’re flying with - in comparison to other aircraft and their comparative failure rate.
xhkkffbf 3y ago
My personal favorite is the short story "Night Rescue" from Bertrand Brinley's Mad Scientist Club books. http://madscientistsclub.com/books.html http://madscientistsclub.com/books.html
foxyv 3y ago
Fighter jets in general are a constant maintenance marathon. They are pushing the edge of engineering and performance. That means that they are less reliable and more expensive to maintain than a 777 by a wide margin. However, the F-35 is significantly more reliable than it's predecessor the F-16. The F-35 represents the result of a changing model for warfare. Less dogfights and missile duels, more managing a fleet of strike drones, loitering ordinance, ECM, and acting as an observability platform. With the advent of extreme long range, datalink guided, air breathing, air to air missiles, BVR is transitioning to over the horizon combat. I see you, I kill you. F-35 is a reaction to that.
- pookha 3y ago
  F35 has a lower mission capability rate than the F-16, and it's not even close (< 50% vs 73%). They're complicated (overly) machines...The DOD industry has come a long ways from Edwards Demming.
  - foxyv 3y ago
    According to the GAO, the F-35 has a much better MCR than the F-16. However, the UH-1N Huey has a higher mission capability rate than ALL of these aircraft. Be careful which metric you optimize for or you will be attempting to fight artillery with trebuchets. https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-106217 https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-106217
- mortureb 3y ago
  We got to move away from fighter jets for the most part. It’s the age of slaughterbots baby, bring on the tens of thousands of highly intelligent drones.
  - foxyv 3y ago
    The AI just isn't there yet if we would even want it to reach that point. You have to have someone in communications range to make kill decisions, confirm target designations, and keep the expensive parts of your swarm intact. Drones are pretty awesome as front line aircraft, but they haven't replaced humanity yet.
aftbit 3y ago
The real question IMO is whether the 6th generation fighters (Next Generation Air Dominance program in the USA) are making the right design trade offs. They are projected to be bigger, more expensive, and ordered in fewer numbers than even the F-22. Are we better off with fewer but more advanced super weapons, or with many more cheaper weapons? In the era of UA/RU war where few-thousand-dollar drones are spanking multi-million dollar EW and AA systems, this may not be the right trade off.
- justrealist 3y ago
  Yeah, far more F35s will be ordered than F22s, in the end the program ground out a pretty successful jet. The next generation may be the questionable one.
- nradov 3y ago
  Unfortunately there is no alternative. In order to be relevant in a potential conflict with China around the first island chain, NGAD must have a size and fuel fraction similar to the F-111. It will probably also need a second crew position to manage the workload including controlling "loyal wingman" type disposable drones. There's just no way to do that on the cheap. Small, cheap drones have been effective in Ukraine because the ranges are so short. The battle space in the South China Sea is completely different.
- ianburrell 3y ago
  The Air Force and Navy NGAD programs are separate and different. The Air Force is building a fighter larger than the F-22 cause they want the range to fly across the Pacific. They are also working on wingman drones and already gave order. The Navy NGAD is more of a replacement for the F/A-18E/F. It will probably be the same size because of constraints of carrier. Another difference is that the Air Force is working fast while Navy NGAD won't be ready until 2030.
mrguyorama 3y ago
The F-35 has a comparable or better safety record than most other American Fighters. You just don't see articles written about a single aircraft incident for the F-18 anymore.
pohl 3y ago
I've seen some analysis that, per hour of flight time, these tend towards the most trouble-free end of the spectrum. Someone will need to run those numbers again, of course, but I wouldn't be surprised if, even with this incident, that was still the case.
Hammerhead12321 3y ago
Something to keep in mind that I do not believe anyone else has mentioned is that the F-35 was built in several variations to serve different branches of the military in roughly similar configurations. The Navy and Air Force can both successfully operate and maintain the aircraft as older planes are decommissioned, and eliminates the need for other aircraft to be developed to serve the specific use cases of the various branches of the U.S. military. It makes maintenance far easier and over the long run results in significantly reduced costs.
leoh 3y ago
>Seriously though, these jets sound terribly overpriced for how unreliable they seem to be. There are a number of possibilities you are not considering. Having our adversaries believe that the F35 is unreliable, for example, would be exceptionally useful. Other possibilities include intentionally attempting out-of-spec maneuvers or experimental hardware.
WalterBright 3y ago
> overpriced for how unreliable they seem to be The high price may cause them to be unreliable, because they are so expensive to operate they don't get enough flying time to work the bugs out.
XorNot 3y ago
Criticism of the F-35 has been coming from a vocal selection of loons who's most common media appearances tended to be on Russia Today, and who's qualifications have been to lie about their qualifications, and misrepresent actual events which happened. Here's the thing: you don't know anything about the F-35. Because the project is secret. The capabilities are secret. And in a US political system that's incredibly fractious, civilian oversight has been satisfied with the project for multiple administrations. But it's still secret.
- rootusrootus 3y ago
  I was an early armchair skeptic, and I've always had a not-so-secret love of the F-16. But after watching an F-35 demo at a recent airshow, I'm a convert. Anyone who says this plane can't out-dogfight an F-16 is delusional.
  - pwython 3y ago
    Was it worth $1,700,000,000,000 though ($1.7 trillion)? I'm all for aviation innovation, but the US defense budget is just wild.
    - alephnerd 3y ago
      It's had downstream benefits in the hardware, IoT, cybersecurity, devops, missle research, and aerospace segments just off the top of my head. I don't want to dox myself but a lot of GovCloud can be attributed to the F35 development cycle.
      - pwython 3y ago
        Interesting, I haven't looked into GovCloud before. While it seems weird that the US government would entrust their data with AWS, it's probably a lot better than their antiquated systems. This 2020 article is a good read for anyone still listening here: https://siliconangle.com/2020/06/30/us-navys-largest-migration-to-aws-govcloud-adds-security-and-analytics-benefits-awspssummit/ https://siliconangle.com/2020/06/30/us-navys-largest-migrati...
sbierwagen 3y ago
You'd hate the F-104, which killed 116 pilots while in German service, which is the kind of casualty rate you'd expect from actual war, not training. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_F-104_Starfighter#West_German_service https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_F-104_Starfighter#Wes...
petesergeant 3y ago
> these jets sound terribly overpriced for how unreliable they seem to be I'm in no way suggesting your comment is an example of this, but, if I was a hostile foreign power I'd do everything possible to amplify messaging that my enemy's wonder-jet was an expensive boondoggle to try and hurt political support for it.

Rebelgecko 3y ago

I think so far the F-35 has had 1 death and maybe half a dozen crashes in hundreds of thousands of hours of operation. Just from perusing the stats for other military planes that seems pretty good actually.

weinzierl 3y ago

Maybe you are thinking of The Machine-Gunners [1]. I loved to watch the BBC adaption as a kid. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Machine_Gunners https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Machine_Gunners

gadders 3y ago
I was thinking more The Nightmare Man [1]. Scared the absolute piss out of me as a kid and I don't think it was even on that late: https://ayearinthecountry.co.uk/the-nightmare-man-part-1-cold-war-paranoia-and-the-island-as-restorative-balm-and-other-wanderings-42-52/ https://ayearinthecountry.co.uk/the-nightmare-man-part-1-col...

nradov 3y ago

The F-35 has a lower mishap rate and higher availability rate than most other tactical aircraft.

mensetmanusman 3y ago

An iPhone would be over a billion dollars if we only made 40.

cypress66 3y ago
There's a lot of very low volume niche Chinese phones for reasonable prices. So it doesn't need to be so expensive. You could argue that an iPhone would cost over a billion because you need to develop iOS. But why would you do that instead of modding android for 1/100th of the cost, if you're only gonna make 40?
- ncallaway 3y ago
  The hardware for the niche Chinese phones can only be so cheap, because an ecosystem exists around the mass production that is built around the mainstream iPhone and Android devices. If not for the insane scale of phones being developed, the components that go into those cheap Chinese phones would be far far far more expensive than they are today.
  - bumby 3y ago
    This assumes the aircraft analogy uses all one-off parts, no? It would be interesting to see if there's any data available on this. I would expect big ticket items like the engines to be bespoke, but even they would likely use some common parts. I'd imagine it's not likely every seal or bolt would be unique to that airframe.
    - ncallaway 3y ago
      Cheap Chinese phones get to take the mass production benefits of the iPhone and Android markets and then *relax* most of the requirements to get cheaper parts. The military tends to *tighten* the requirements when it’s procuring parts, so more things end up as custom development. I have no idea what ratio something like an F-35 is for COTS vs custom hardware, though.
      - bumby 3y ago
        I’m not sure there’s much relaxing in quality control in aerospace. The specs are already pretty tight.

kunwon1 3y ago

I'm no expert on aircraft procurement or government contracts (I'm an engineer who used to work on fighter jets) - that being said, it's my understanding that the F-35 is actually a very successful project, and a very affordable one at that. I haven't got any citations or evidence to present, I could be wrong about all of this, it's a topic I've got only casual knowledge about. A broad overview of my understanding of the situation: Most critics are making unfair comparisons (e.g. criticizing the F-35 for its inability to dogfight, or comparing its cost to 4th generation fighters, rather than its 5th generation peers) This argument is further complicated by (as I understand it) a general lack of knowledge in the west concerning the true cost of Russian and Chinese 5th generation fighters (PAK FA and Su-57) All of that being said, I think this is a heavily politicized topic, and I can never discount the possibility that I've been hoodwinked when it comes to such matters.

SonicScrub 3y ago
https://www.aviacionline.com/2022/01/f-35-cheaper-than-the-gripen/ https://www.aviacionline.com/2022/01/f-35-cheaper-than-the-g... Specific figures will differ depending on how exactly one calculates acquisition costs. These numbers differ depending on the acquiring country, the block numbers, etc. But as rule of thumb the F-35 cost is roughly 10 million USD cheaper than the much less capable Gripen. This is notable as the Gripen is being marketed as the cheaper alternative. The F-35 has much higher operational costs (mostly due to the costs of maintaining stealth coating), but here's the opinion of the Finish and Swiss governments on full life-cycle costs from the article: > However, both the Swiss and Finnish authorities argued that the F-35 was the best cost/benefit investment, if its full life-cycle economics were taken into account.
- flakeoil 3y ago
  From the article the cost per flight hour is around $8,000 for Gripen and $33,300 for the F35A. The Finish and Swiss most likely have no clue what the final full life-cycle costs will be. No-one knows this cost. The US who sold it knows a bit more than the Finns and the Swiss, but not even they know. Time will tell. The F35 program has overrun it's costs over and over. The purchase price of the F35A (the conventional version) is being artificially low as a lot of the costs have been pushed onto the F35B and F35C models so they can offer an attractive price for their exports. It's all politics at the end anyway. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-35_Lightning_II https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-35_Lightning...

SonicScrub 3y ago

The F-35 is cheaper than it's contemporaries, and has a lower accident rate.

dr-detroit 3y ago

[dead]

jameshart 3y ago

You don’t hear about the ones that don’t crash. To determine that this crash is evidence of unreliability would require you to have detailed knowledge of the operational and training volume and tempo they’re flying with - in comparison to other aircraft and their comparative failure rate.

xhkkffbf 3y ago

My personal favorite is the short story "Night Rescue" from Bertrand Brinley's Mad Scientist Club books. http://madscientistsclub.com/books.html http://madscientistsclub.com/books.html

foxyv 3y ago

Fighter jets in general are a constant maintenance marathon. They are pushing the edge of engineering and performance. That means that they are less reliable and more expensive to maintain than a 777 by a wide margin. However, the F-35 is significantly more reliable than it's predecessor the F-16. The F-35 represents the result of a changing model for warfare. Less dogfights and missile duels, more managing a fleet of strike drones, loitering ordinance, ECM, and acting as an observability platform. With the advent of extreme long range, datalink guided, air breathing, air to air missiles, BVR is transitioning to over the horizon combat. I see you, I kill you. F-35 is a reaction to that.

pookha 3y ago
F35 has a lower mission capability rate than the F-16, and it's not even close (< 50% vs 73%). They're complicated (overly) machines...The DOD industry has come a long ways from Edwards Demming.
- foxyv 3y ago
  According to the GAO, the F-35 has a much better MCR than the F-16. However, the UH-1N Huey has a higher mission capability rate than ALL of these aircraft. Be careful which metric you optimize for or you will be attempting to fight artillery with trebuchets. https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-106217 https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-106217
mortureb 3y ago
We got to move away from fighter jets for the most part. It’s the age of slaughterbots baby, bring on the tens of thousands of highly intelligent drones.
- foxyv 3y ago
  The AI just isn't there yet if we would even want it to reach that point. You have to have someone in communications range to make kill decisions, confirm target designations, and keep the expensive parts of your swarm intact. Drones are pretty awesome as front line aircraft, but they haven't replaced humanity yet.

aftbit 3y ago

The real question IMO is whether the 6th generation fighters (Next Generation Air Dominance program in the USA) are making the right design trade offs. They are projected to be bigger, more expensive, and ordered in fewer numbers than even the F-22. Are we better off with fewer but more advanced super weapons, or with many more cheaper weapons? In the era of UA/RU war where few-thousand-dollar drones are spanking multi-million dollar EW and AA systems, this may not be the right trade off.

justrealist 3y ago
Yeah, far more F35s will be ordered than F22s, in the end the program ground out a pretty successful jet. The next generation may be the questionable one.
nradov 3y ago
Unfortunately there is no alternative. In order to be relevant in a potential conflict with China around the first island chain, NGAD must have a size and fuel fraction similar to the F-111. It will probably also need a second crew position to manage the workload including controlling "loyal wingman" type disposable drones. There's just no way to do that on the cheap. Small, cheap drones have been effective in Ukraine because the ranges are so short. The battle space in the South China Sea is completely different.
ianburrell 3y ago
The Air Force and Navy NGAD programs are separate and different. The Air Force is building a fighter larger than the F-22 cause they want the range to fly across the Pacific. They are also working on wingman drones and already gave order. The Navy NGAD is more of a replacement for the F/A-18E/F. It will probably be the same size because of constraints of carrier. Another difference is that the Air Force is working fast while Navy NGAD won't be ready until 2030.

mrguyorama 3y ago

The F-35 has a comparable or better safety record than most other American Fighters. You just don't see articles written about a single aircraft incident for the F-18 anymore.

pohl 3y ago

I've seen some analysis that, per hour of flight time, these tend towards the most trouble-free end of the spectrum. Someone will need to run those numbers again, of course, but I wouldn't be surprised if, even with this incident, that was still the case.

Hammerhead12321 3y ago

Something to keep in mind that I do not believe anyone else has mentioned is that the F-35 was built in several variations to serve different branches of the military in roughly similar configurations. The Navy and Air Force can both successfully operate and maintain the aircraft as older planes are decommissioned, and eliminates the need for other aircraft to be developed to serve the specific use cases of the various branches of the U.S. military. It makes maintenance far easier and over the long run results in significantly reduced costs.

leoh 3y ago

>Seriously though, these jets sound terribly overpriced for how unreliable they seem to be. There are a number of possibilities you are not considering. Having our adversaries believe that the F35 is unreliable, for example, would be exceptionally useful. Other possibilities include intentionally attempting out-of-spec maneuvers or experimental hardware.

WalterBright 3y ago

> overpriced for how unreliable they seem to be The high price may cause them to be unreliable, because they are so expensive to operate they don't get enough flying time to work the bugs out.

XorNot 3y ago

Criticism of the F-35 has been coming from a vocal selection of loons who's most common media appearances tended to be on Russia Today, and who's qualifications have been to lie about their qualifications, and misrepresent actual events which happened. Here's the thing: you don't know anything about the F-35. Because the project is secret. The capabilities are secret. And in a US political system that's incredibly fractious, civilian oversight has been satisfied with the project for multiple administrations. But it's still secret.

rootusrootus 3y ago
I was an early armchair skeptic, and I've always had a not-so-secret love of the F-16. But after watching an F-35 demo at a recent airshow, I'm a convert. Anyone who says this plane can't out-dogfight an F-16 is delusional.
- pwython 3y ago
  Was it worth $1,700,000,000,000 though ($1.7 trillion)? I'm all for aviation innovation, but the US defense budget is just wild.
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    It's had downstream benefits in the hardware, IoT, cybersecurity, devops, missle research, and aerospace segments just off the top of my head. I don't want to dox myself but a lot of GovCloud can be attributed to the F35 development cycle.
    - pwython 3y ago
      Interesting, I haven't looked into GovCloud before. While it seems weird that the US government would entrust their data with AWS, it's probably a lot better than their antiquated systems. This 2020 article is a good read for anyone still listening here: https://siliconangle.com/2020/06/30/us-navys-largest-migration-to-aws-govcloud-adds-security-and-analytics-benefits-awspssummit/ https://siliconangle.com/2020/06/30/us-navys-largest-migrati...

sbierwagen 3y ago

You'd hate the F-104, which killed 116 pilots while in German service, which is the kind of casualty rate you'd expect from actual war, not training. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_F-104_Starfighter#West_German_service https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_F-104_Starfighter#Wes...

petesergeant 3y ago

> these jets sound terribly overpriced for how unreliable they seem to be I'm in no way suggesting your comment is an example of this, but, if I was a hostile foreign power I'd do everything possible to amplify messaging that my enemy's wonder-jet was an expensive boondoggle to try and hurt political support for it.