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Downtown SF has 18.4M square feet of empty office space. We mapped every vacancy
- computerphage 3y ago[flagged]
- eppp 3y agoWhat on earth are you talking about?
- zbrozek 3y agoIt's probably a statement about SF zoning too much commercial rather than allowing property owners to figure out how to use buildings. Or maybe it's a statement about how our building codes make it very difficult to repurpose buildings. Not entirely sure, but those are my best guesses.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- jjoonathan 3y agoWell, if you assume California is socialist it all makes sense. There's just one tiny little problem: it isn't, and not only is this office space privately owned but the problems causing these vacancies are probably principal agent problems directly attributable to the structure of the free market controlling them (landlords either want to bet on a recovery or agreed to credit terms that would cascade a single write-down).
- yieldcrv 3y agothats an insult to socialists, China’s top income tax rate is far below California’s combined max income tax rate.
- justeleblanc 3y agoUh? Where did you get that comparison? China's top income tax rate is 45%. I cannot see how that could ever be "far below" what someone's income tax rate would be in California (37% federal + 12.3% state). Mind that the top bracket starts around $140k in China, whereas in the US it's about $590k (federal or Californian).
- yieldcrv 3y agoyeah so we need a new category for California since they set thenselves up to seize more of the means of production than the communists/state capital socialists
- jjoonathan 3y agoDoes China have a separate low-tax lane for capital gains like the US does?
- yieldcrv 3y agoyes, 20%
- Dig1t 3y ago>directly attributable to the structure of the free market controlling them This is completely wrong, city zoning does not allow commercial buildings to be used for housing. Local government literally has direct control of the allowed uses for buildings. Additionally, even if you completely got rid of zoning it is very risky to be a landlord in CA now because of government eviction policies. As a tenant in CA you can just stop paying your rent and it can take over a year to be evicted. See the show Silicon Valley, where Jared sublets his apartment and it is basically stolen from him because the tenants just stops paying rent. It's so well known that it's become a joke. The problems here are created by zoning and eviction regulation (i.e. government regulation), not the free market.
- yieldcrv 3y agothe San Francisco standing committee failed to retain respect for its sovereignty and territorial unity
- justeleblanc 3y agoAh yes, the famous centrally planned economy of San Francisco, California, USA.
- selimthegrim 3y agohttps://youtu.be/XvlqiUoIIJs https://youtu.be/XvlqiUoIIJs
- raverbashing 3y agoSo whenever you hear about how "remote work doesn't work" try to imagine how some real estate groups might have a veiled interest in it
- dredmorbius 3y agoBingo. I've been calling the same thing for the past 8 months: <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32746966 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32746966> (And I'm hardly the first.)
- SeanAnderson 3y agoI live in SF and spend a fair amount of time thinking about its poor 5-year economic outlook. It's not great, but I am curious how it compares to other metros? If I were to move from SF, wanted to live in a metro area, and was uncomfortable living in a very red state - where should I consider? Where is thriving? I have a good amount of friends in Portland, but Portland is adjacent SF in terms of poor economic recovery and it's not especially tech-focused. So, I think there's at least a bit more at play here. There's a seismic shift occurring with WFH, Starlink, etc. Yes, San Francisco is near the bottom of many post-Covid economic recovery lists, but are there other metros that are on sound financial footing if 30%+ of their populace chooses a more suburban/rural lifestyle?
- CydeWeys 3y agoMost cities don't seem to be having the same problem (it's almost uniquely SF that has this problem). NYC for example is booming.
- SeanAnderson 3y agohttps://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2022/06/16/which-metro-areas-have-fared-better-in-the-covid-19-rebound/ https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2022/06/16/which-m... I haven't scrutinized this heavily, but, at a glance, it appears that the best recovery for "Work Trips" is still down 13.2%, New York is down 26%, and the worst, SF, is down 32.7%. In no way do I see these numbers as booming - they all make me question how the cities are going to balance their books as commercial real estate gets devalued and undermines taxation. Is that the wrong way to be looking at things? (EDIT: these numbers are old, my bad!)
- CydeWeys 3y agoAre you planning on owning commercial real estate? If not, why does this one particular metric matter? NYC is booming in all senses of the word that apply to the daily experience of your typical person living here. The streets are PACKED with people out and about having a good time at all hours of day and night, and rents are at record highs because so many people want to live here. So what if not everyone is commuting into the office 5 days a week anymore? Don't buy an office building and you'll be good.
- sashank_1509 3y agoHow is this possible lol? Do offices not want to locate in SF. I for one make the 1 hour commute daily from SF to my office in the Bay, I honestly think a large number of employees would prefer offices in SF
- yieldcrv 3y agothey dont want to be in the bay either, the vacancies are because they go to other actually happening cities not “happening compared to the rest of the bay”, the bar is really that low and the market is saying what bay area permabulls cant perceive
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- mdeeks 3y agoI love being in the city and working side by side with my coworkers. But I absolutely do not want to commute two hours daily. I have kids, so I must be home by 5pm and also must help get them ready for drop off at 8am. That leaves no time for work + commuting. Mass transit in the bay area sucks. Bart is packed, loud, and uncomfortable. I feel unsafe at my station (Fruitvale). So my only other option is to take the bus which is an hour each way because of traffic.
- wootland 3y ago> “I strongly believe the office experience should be at the same level as luxury residential and hospitality,” Shvo previously told The Chronicle. “In the last two years, we’ve made our homes into our offices, now it’s time to make our offices feel like our homes.” Private bathrooms for every employee? No commute? The office can never "feel like my home", my home doesn't have my co-workers in it. It's an environment 100% of my design.
- cameldrv 3y agoMaybe not, but if office rents are really going to be way down, it's possible to give developers private offices again.
- wootland 3y agoI can only speak for myself but I would never work non-remote again, even if I had my own private office.
- wahnfrieden 3y agoCovid WFH took me further - I would never work again if I can help it
- azemetre 3y agoI wouldn't mind working remote if my commute is walkable. I purposely live in Boston to have access to the T, but many companies in Boston are opening up offices in Seaport which is the most awkward place to get to using public transit.
- aquajet 3y agoWhen I worked in Seaport i'd just walk from south station
- azemetre 3y agoThe issue is that most offices (especially the bio/chemistry ones) are at the far end, also the silver line blows; unless your office is less than a one mile radius (even then depending on the street it can be painful) it's just a bad time.
- ianium 3y agohttps://archive.is/FDk7x https://archive.is/FDk7x
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- ortusdux 3y agoTangential, but how is retail ft² doing? There was a report in 2018 that the US had 23.5ft² of retail space per person, followed by Canada at 16.8ft² and Australia at 11.2ft². Every other country polled had 4.5ft² or less. When covid hit, people used this report to claim that the US would see a retail collapse. Did any of this come to pass? All my searches just come up with alarmist articles from 2019-2020.
- Ancalagon 3y agotbd. no collapse yet because commercial leases typically last multiple years. Many leases are coming up for renewal in the next year, however. Might very well see a recession in commercial real-estate soon.
- theturtletalks 3y agoAs I understand, it’s better for them to keep the retail spaces empty than drop rent. This was true when money was free, but it’ll be interesting to see how they adapt to renewals with the new rates.
- sschueller 3y agoIsn't there a housing shortage? Rezone these buildings for apartments on the upper floors. Edit: Even if it costs a lot to convert (that is where tax incentives would usually help if done correctly). Having them sit empty costs more eventually.
- wusher 3y agoIt's not as easy as rezoning. there is significant overhead retrofitting commercial real-estate with the plumbing needed for residential. ( as well as many other changes) It's doable but the right incentives would have to be put in place by the city. However, everything i've seen of the city is their policies are very anti landlords. --edit-- fixed grammer
- exochrono 3y agoI would love to see these offices turned into housing as much as anyone, but I also recommend reading this amazing NYT article on why it's not quite so simple as just rezoning or a simple interior remodel - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/03/11/upshot/office-conversions.html?unlocked_article_code=LQG_2S42UjofK7KSubvSVYJGkqaoGyct8ywU--9JnLjiOBAEtQu7qaX7z13xUmClAdGwAFSBE7jcWOq2Bz9G7upvsHpPoGqf6R-jOezldlzNeSno0FNfcO9r0sOYxQYtNvK0e9uL3-FackZ0hHL3K-o35Jgy-4rgnZSP6uimsHXY2xBgwPFgbDfBxGct6MVctzqWPcZJyb2iRwufQgTOFYEETUg8F-sg01d5p9KbJOwdkCJDRtc2l3tU90E20kNt-qRIKEk5IkcbllxjjChY-QqeCCjEZQWr-Ank6oEX_6KEwAAlfw0bMxwItWY3tmoZm4O_0pTdZCPZ8F68HLbr_9k89m4DD7k_WV9I&smid=url-share https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/03/11/upshot/office...
- oxfeed65261 3y agoGreat article, thanks for the gift link!
- z3ugma 3y agoThis is very interesting, but it assumes the predicate that separated apartments with individual kitchens and bathrooms are the right way for people to live. And 1 BR and studios at that. These are buildings designed for communal occupancy as offices, why not lean into that as residences? Think like a 1-2 floor cooperative housing for a community of 50-100 people in 25-50 family units. Everyone gets private bedrooms, storage, and a den. But the expensive amenities that foster community are shared: Large commercial-style communal kitchens and bathrooms. That would enable other big shared amenities on the floor like a gym, a daycare, or coworking desks. The epidemic of loneliness plaguing millennials is in my estimation largely due to a lack of community. Think of the kind of community that was east to build at university - why can’t we have that in the conversion of these big floor plates
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- pessimizer 3y agoOffice space in downtown SF must be free right now based on what I've been told about supply and demand from SF YIMBYS.
- sagarm 3y agoYeah, a building just sold at a >60% discount vs 2020. What of it?
- lukemercado 3y agoDid the 350 california sale go through? I thought it was just an offer? Just googled it, and shit, it did: https://www.sfgate.com/local/article/350-california-sf-office-building-has-sold-18087040.php https://www.sfgate.com/local/article/350-california-sf-offic... Holy hell. Now to find out if they land bank it or blow it up.
- m00dy 3y agoIt is more than enough for homeless people.
- mistrial9 3y agoThis is no one's problem except the commercial real estate crowd. Being obstinate and pushy for two generations of economic growth, leveraging to the hilt and beyond, and living on the work of others has hit a state transition and they dont have a way out. San Francisco is no stranger to boom and bust, decadence and plague. Please wave hello to your quiet and strong neighbors, the ethnic Chinese community. San Francisco has one of the highest proportions of ethnic Chinese overall of any USA metro. I predict this will increase, as the masters of Finance deteriorate into public and ridiculous escapades.
- fwungy 3y agoThe government funded misery industry has metastasized in SF.
- mikeryan 3y agoI know it’s not as easy as it looks to convert office space into residential but I wonder if there’s an opportunity for better schools. The UC system is at its limits for admissions and UCSF doesn’t have an undergraduate program. I wonder what it would take to covert some large section of downtown into a UC. Could revitalize the businesses that support the office buildings. Housing would be a problem but with BART and light rail access it seems like that could be addressed (dorms in West Oakland could be one stop on Bart away)
- kangaroozach 3y agoIf your city can’t keep Walmart, Whole Foods, and Nordstrom due to rampant and unchecked crime, homelessness, etc, then how would you compel normal citizens and employers to remain. If you forfeit your security, protection of private property and clean streets, then society will rapidly devolve and you will end up with such vacancies. And it doesn’t matter if this is deliberate and ideological or if it’s just incompetence or ignorance, the same outcome will arrive. SF is in decline and total denial about it. California is too. Anyone who doesn’t see this is in total denial.
- gumballindie 3y agoConvert these empty offices to living space, turn roads into space for walking and dining and small shops. I so wish this would happen to London UK. Cleaner air, friendlier and happier people, tourism and living space are better than stressed workers rushing to jobs they can do via email or zoom.
- Armisael16 3y agoIt’s often more expensive to convert offices than it would be to knock the building down and start from scratch.
- phendrenad2 3y agoSF is going to be left as the "old city" of the bay area. Construction is happening all around the bay (just not in SF)
- JohnClark1337 3y ago[dead]