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Global rice shortage is set to be the biggest in 20 years
- Mildlypolite 4y agoHere in Italy the production of rice is stopped due to a severe drought, consequence of the climate crisis. *Stopped in the sense that farmers couldn't even sow the rice.
- pvaldes 4y agoThis is the stuff wars are made of
- Loughla 4y agoWhy is the increase in every single food item tied to the war in Ukraine? Is that legitimate, or is that just timely excuse making?
- AlecSchueler 4y agoThe war in Ukraine drives up prices of fuel which has a knock on effect to just about everything else.
- illiarian 4y agoI wouldn't be surprised if it's also overlapping long tails of everything: from COVID global trade and shipping disruptions to war in Ukraine affecting grain shipments to rising fuel prices to...
- Paul-Craft 4y agoLet's not forget natural gas is the main source of methane used to make synthetic fertilizers. Since Russian natural gas isn't flowing the way it used to, I can imagine that would increase the price of food.
- CannisterFlux 4y ago"Climate change" is probably the long tail of everything you could add to the list. The flooding in Pakistan in 2022 for example. Remember that one? It destroyed crops and then there's the draining and fixing the land afterwards, infrastructure damage making planting for the next season more difficult, and so on. Pakistan was the 3rd global exporter of rice after India and Thailand in 2021.
- qbasic_forever 4y agoSaudi Arabia effectively sets the price of oil. Ukraine doesn't produce any of it. Some tanks banging around the countryside there are not major consumers of oil, one oil tanker crossing the ocean is burning and blasting through orders of magnitude more oil.
- tekla 4y agoWho said that Tanks in Ukraine are the main drivers to oil price increases?
- qbasic_forever 4y agoThe person I'm directly replying to said the war in Ukraine is causing oil prices to increase. What else would be using major amounts of oil in a war? But like I said it's beside the point. The price of oil is effectively set by the production volume of Saudi Arabia. Ukraine does not factor into it at all.
- Retric 4y agoRussia is a major oil exporter ~10 million barrels per day, and they are impacted by the war.
- qbasic_forever 4y agoTheir exports are humming along just fine as they've made new agreements with China and other countries to get out of the petro-dollar hegemony. It's been over a year and the sanctions against Russian oil exports appear to have done nothing.
- politician 4y agoIf I posted as frequently within the short amount of time as you have on this topic, my account would have been throttled. My account is frequently throttled for posting more than 5-7 times per hour, and yet, your recent history shows a far higher rate of posts in defense of Russia with no evidence of throttling. That's very interesting. I wonder if limits are relaxed above 8k karma.
- maerF0x0 4y agoAlso the cost/availability of fertilizer on the other side of the conflict https://www.npr.org/2022/09/28/1125525861/how-the-war-in-ukraine-is-affecting-the-worlds-supply-of-fertilizer https://www.npr.org/2022/09/28/1125525861/how-the-war-in-ukr...
- chaostheory 4y agoIf you read further down in the article, China is suffering from a drought that’s been the worse in decades Edit monsoon not drought. Thanks s1artibartfast “In the second half of last year, swaths of farmland in the world’s largest rice producer China were plagued by heavy summer monsoon rains and floods. The accumulated rainfall in the country’s Guangxi and Guangdong province, China’s major hubs of rice production, was the second highest in at least 20 years, according to agriculture analytics company Gro Intelligence. Similarly, Pakistan — which represents 7.6% of global rice trade — saw annual production plunge 31% year-on-year due to severe flooding last year, said the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), labeling the impact as ‘even worse than initially expected.’” Reading further, I’m not sure why Ukraine is mentioned either since their major food export is wheat and not rice
- s1artibartfast 4y agoPoint of clarification, China is suffering from monsoon, not drought
- neverartful 4y agoThe country's land mass is big enough that it's possible for both to be true, no?
- s1artibartfast 4y agoPossible, but article actually supports one reason and not the other. >The accumulated rainfall in the country’s Guangxi and Guangdong province, China’s major hubs of rice production, was the second highest in at least 20 years,
- hef19898 4y agoOne thing I could think of spontaniously is this: Ukraine is exporting less (they seemed to recover, but markets and the bullwhip effect don't care rigjt away), so shortfall of Ukrainian grain has to be compensated and rice is one such alternative. As a result some of the grain shortages are causing rice shortages. Throw in problems in China and the situation gets really confusing and complex.
- coliveira 4y ago[flagged]
- tekla 4y agoImpressive how absolutely no evidence is given by such a massive claim. At least attempt to refute the article which makes multiple separate claims as to why there is a shortage.
- maerF0x0 4y agoThe supply is obvious, but the wise/stupid judgement is still up for debate. https://www.npr.org/2022/09/28/1125525861/how-the-war-in-ukraine-is-affecting-the-worlds-supply-of-fertilizer https://www.npr.org/2022/09/28/1125525861/how-the-war-in-ukr...
- FredPret 4y agoCan't obliterate even the tiny Russian economy without some knock-on effects on the rest of the world. Between Russia and Ukraine, they produce some vital materials including lots of fertilizer, despite making almost no money. So while we're all taking a small financial hit right now, there are odd things like this as well.
- f6v 4y ago> Can't obliterate even the tiny Russian economy without some knock-on effects on the rest of the world. Maybe the GDP isn’t the best and only measure then.
- FredPret 4y agoI'm partial to total net worth measurements, but in case of war, you have to take into account things like scarce materials and growing seasons of crops. Like how in Age of Empires you had gold as well as wood and food, if memory serves.
- risyachka 4y ago
- kasey_junk 4y agoThe article suggests is due to rice replacing other grains in the global diet. Between Russia and the Ukraine 27% of the worlds wheat supply is impacted by the war and another 15% of the worlds corn. It seems reasonable to conclude that would have an impact on the price of other grain staples.
- puzzlingcaptcha 4y agoAnd yet wheat futures (ZW) have been falling steadily for the past six months and are now below the pre-invasion levels.
- hef19898 4y agoprice =|= availability
- puzzlingcaptcha 4y agoThe very purpose of futures contracts is to ensure availability in the future at a predetermined price. I am not sure what your point is.
- hef19898 4y agoThat there is no guarantee that the stuff will be available so, thing shappen. Also, just because futures are cheap, doesn't mean stuff is available now or in the near future. It only means the markets think grain will be plenty at one point, and thus cheap.
- ta1243 4y agoAll a low futures price means is that money men are betting there won't be a shortage, it doesn't say anything about whether there will be a shortage or not.
- pfannkuchen 4y agoPrice is not solely determined by availability, but it is largely determined by availability, especially in the case of rapid shifts in availability (since other factors take time to adjust in response).
- deelowe 4y agoUkraine isn't called the breadbasket of europe for no reason. It's hard to grow crops for export when you're at war.
- Scoundreller 4y agoStill only responsible for 3% of global production, and there are bigger European producers: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/08/top-10-countries-produce-most-wheat/ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/08/top-10-countries-prod...
- deelowe 4y agoWouldn't it make sense to combine Ukraine with Russia given the sanctions?
- Scoundreller 4y agoNo, because Russia has enough willing buyers for its production.
- qbasic_forever 4y agoDidn't Poland decide they didn't actually need Ukraine's grain and it's just sitting in ports rotting? https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/16/europe/poland-bans-grain-ukraine-intl/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/16/europe/poland-bans-grain-ukra... Doesn't seem like there is much demand for Ukraine grain.
- kelipso 4y agoJust an aside but wheat grain lasts basically forever so it's not exactly rotting.
- distances 4y ago> Doesn't seem like there is much demand for Ukraine grain. Always with the disinformation. Ukraine's main exports for grain are obviously not in Europe. https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ukr/ https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ukr/
- f6v 4y agoYet Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria say Ukrainian grain is too cheap and upsets local farmers. Guys, but the EU said it was for feeding the poor, and not for making pierogi. I’m so confused at this point.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- yamtaddle 4y agoBoth could be true. A glut of product trying to make its way through ports & other logistic routes that it usually doesn't, might drive down the price of the product at those ports—while, globally, the supply might be lower and prices higher. Think up a toy case with some remote old-west town coming into a glut of some bulky, perishable good, but having only one train line to distribute it, and the potential for this effect becomes clear. Or an island, or whatever. The logistics systems in question aren't that isolated, obviously, but they still have limited capacity that's unlikely to go up much in response to anything perceived as only a temporary situation, so they absolutely might see local prices (including for export) depressed even as global prices rise. It's not implausible.
- f6v 4y agoI think it’s a lot of words trying to justify why the “grain deal” hasn’t achieved the declared goals. I’m sure lots of profit has been made though.
- metaphor 4y ago> Is that legitimate, or is that just timely excuse making? Arguably[1] a bit of both. [1] https://scholarworks.umass.edu/econ_workingpaper/343/ https://scholarworks.umass.edu/econ_workingpaper/343/
- kneebonian 4y agoSo there's a big long video by Petar Zeihan at the Iowa Pork Conference but the TL;DR is that the Ukraine and Russia are 2 or the world's 3 leading producers of nitrogen. This is a critical component of fertilizer. Because of fertilizer we weren't just able to make land good for crops better for crops we were able to make land that was marginal for crops good for crops. Because of this we could farm a lot more land; however with less fertilizer suddenly that land can't be farmed. What this means is less arable land = less food. As a result the supply decreases while demand increases, leading to a price increase. So yes it is a real excuse, and the problem is that many nations in the world import more than 50% of their calories and almost no nations on earth are calorically self sufficient.
- legitster 4y agoI mean, 1/4 of the world's grain and fertilizer sources are now in a war zone. It would take some hubris to assume we weren't going to feel that in some way.
- FpUser 4y agoWar in Ukraine is being used by politicians all across the world to distract from their own fuck-ups, power grab, infringement on freedoms etc. etc.
- andrepd 4y agoAcross the EU at least, margins of big-box retailers have gone through the roof. So producers are shafted because fuel and fertilisers are crazy expensive, and consumers are shafted because prices are going through the roof much faster than wages. The middle-man with enough bargaining power to effectively dictate purchasing prices to producers absorbs all the profit, using "the inflation" as a marketing cover.
- ta8645 4y agoSo food will cost more. But nobody remembers the rice shortage of 20 years ago; and this one will also be largely irrelevant, in the big scheme of things.
- conroydave 4y agoi feel as though these days prices fail to return back to normal after sharp spikes like they have in the past, anecdotally
- ta8645 4y agoOh, they're never going back. We're all going to be less wealthy going forward. But it isn't because of a rice shortage.
- h1fra 4y agoProbably because you are very far from the people actually dying from hunger?
- ta8645 4y agoThere has always been enough food to feed the hungry, and there will continue to be enough with this rice shortage. That's not the reason people starve.
- deathgripsss 4y agoThere's always enough food to feed the hungry... Until there isn't. What makes you so sure that there will continue to be enough food indefinitely?
- ta8645 4y agoOh, at some point we'll be hit by a meteor, and anyone who manages to avoid death in the initial impact will surely starve to death. But then, a dip in rice production, no worse than one from twenty years prior, won't be the issue.
- photochemsyn 4y agoThis article is interesting as it's from the perspective of a major exporter, India, (rather than a commodities trader): https://indianexpress.com/article/business/economy/india-rice-export-curbs-price-stability-supply-8462016/ https://indianexpress.com/article/business/economy/india-ric... > "“We can’t resume broken rice exports just because somebody in China or any other country wants it as a raw material to make ethanol or cattle feed. We’ll rather prefer our domestic industry consuming it... We don’t want to take a chance. We’ve limited wheat stocks but ample rice stocks, which we can use if the weather throws any big surprises." Incidentally, much of the research into how rice production responds to rising CO2 and rising global temperatures was based on greenhouse studies in which CO2 and temperate was artificially manipulated, for example: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6751296/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6751296/ However, it's turning out that the increasingly random and extreme incidences of droughts and floods is what's impacting agricultural production the most. India's approach seems the most rational: build bigger domestic buffers against future uncertainties. Also, the future of biofuels and meat production looks quite poor, as crop production is going to be needed to feed humans directly.
- omeid2 4y agoA lot of livestock feed is produced in environments where rice or wheat is out of question.
- neovialogistics 4y agoWheat can reliably grow pretty much anywhere except nonirrigated clearcut former jungle, it's just not economically competitive (on the global market) when it has to be harvested from any kind of sloped terrain.
- littlestymaar 4y agoIt used to be the case, when cattle was grazing hills too steep for culture (without terraces at least). But nowadays, most cattle is fed from cultivated grains instead of grazing.
- bannedbybros 4y ago[dead]
- dmfdmf 4y agoThe Tonga Eruption in Dec/Jan of last year is probably a factor.
- fwungy 4y agoIf weather could be modified on a global scale it would be one of the greatest weapons of all. There are hundreds of patents for weather modification techniques, many filed recently. The unusually warm Winter in Ukraine has hurt the Russian war effort, and protected Europe from economic devastation. The timing was quite fortuitous.
- algoatecorn 4y agoExample of one of these techniques please
- r3trohack3r 4y agoSee sibling comment. All non-government weather modification projects in the U.S. must file form 17-4(a) with the NOAA. All submissions have been indexed and are viewable on their webpage.
- algoatecorn 4y agoEvery submission in there has to do with precipitation. I was curious which techniques are used to sustained warming throughout the winter
- fwungy 4y agoThe atmosphere is enclosed. You can't change the weather, but you can move things around. Europe had an unusually warm Winter. The US had an unusually cold one. It was just amazing timing for the Ukranian war effort. With a normal European Winter NATO would have fallen apart as the EU cracked on the Russian energy sanctions to warm themselves, and the Russian army would have had massively increased mobility options with frozen ground in the Ukraine.
- fwungy 4y agohttps://patents.justia.com/search?q=weather+modification https://patents.justia.com/search?q=weather+modification
- xyst 4y agoRice is a very thirsty crop. Water is becoming scarce as the effects of global warming/climate change worsen the effects of natural weather events. Not sure why we are surprised. We have been warned for decades yet governments around the world continue to let O&G industry to pollute the planet with no repercussions. Eating habits of rich countries have not changed much as meat is still heavily consumed. The ultra rich continue to pollute with reckless abandon with super cars, private jets, yachts, and other GHG heavy activities. The average US consumer is buying SUVs and trucks at alarming rates and for the most part are just hauling air or carrying 1-2 people in a single vehicle. Public transportation and more efficient modes of transportation (walking, biking) are replaced by inefficient car centric transportation, parking lots, parking garages, street parking in most the US. I don’t know how we are going to reach the goal of reducing our carbon footprint. What’s next is: world wide famines, commodity wars
- algoatecorn 4y agoIf you read the article, it states the shortage has to do with flooding, not drought. While most of your points are true, they are skewed toward some resentment toward the West. The eating habits of rich countries, relative to developing countries, has become much more sustainable. Look at meat consumption by source, over time, in USA. Chicken, which has the highest feed conversion ratio, leads the pack by a huge margin since the late 90s/early 2000s. Developing countries' demand for meat has exploded and will continue to rise as incomes go up. What percent of the global population lives in a developing country? ~85%. Over time, these countries will be responsible for most meat consumption. And emissions. Regarding pollution, you are focusing on the wrong things. Sure, private jets are inefficient. What is their contribution to GHGs? Less than 0.05%. Super car and yachts? Come on.. As energy infrastructure is built out for this 85% of the population, the emissions per nation will flip on its' head.
- sremani 4y agoThere is nuance to be had when it comes to rice. There is no ONE rice, there are many varieties of Rice and people and cultures are very specific about 'their' rice. Right at the time of planting you are deciding which market you are targeting. The consumption pattern of Ponni rice is very different from Basmati, and these are differences in Indian subcontinent, we are not even talking about South East Asia, China or Japan. Rice is a complex market and by its nature fragmented. Also, it is very hard crop to harvest given that you have to flood the field twice. If Ukraine was rice bowl of the world, we would already have large scale famine kicked in right now. The wheat shortages will come and will become apparent by the end of this year or early next.
- chrisco255 4y agoAccording to the Rice Outlook published by USDA, total global rice supply is 691.4 million tons [1][2]. If there is a shortage in production (of 8.7m) this year, it will simply debit against that total. Rice is stored for long term. As of now that 8.7m figure is simply a forecast. The weather could turn favorable for the season and there could be a surplus. No, we cannot predict the weather beyond two weeks from now. [1] https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/dn39x152w/k356bj81c/4f16dg77j/04_2023_APRIL__RICE_OUTLOOK_REPORT_FINAL.pdf https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/... [2] https://usda.library.cornell.edu/catalog?utf8=%E2%9C%93&locale=en&search_field=all_fields&q=rice+outlook https://usda.library.cornell.edu/catalog?utf8=%E2%9C%93&loca...
- torcete 4y agoIn the meantime I am facing a loss of 31% on my wheat ETF. When Russia invaded Ukraine it was said everywhere how much it was going to affect the price of wheat. I guess there are better speculators than me that can influence media and create a buying sentiment. I also deserve it, not only I learnt a lesson, but there's something fundamentally wrong about speculating with food. For some reason I didn't even think about that and at some point I was like what am I doing?
- rout39574 4y agoBravo on the ethical double-take. It's hard. If you're so inclined, I'd like to hear your speculation: would you have found that second thought as easy if your wheat ETF were _up_ 31%?
- ManuelKiessling 4y agoWell I assume it was solidly in the plus for a while? If yes, then the assumption was right at least for a while — which might be just another instance of market timing working out or not working out.
- chrisco255 4y agoThe lesson in the first part of your comment is very important, but the second paragraph is a miss: "there's something fundamentally wrong about speculating with food". Absolutely not. Besides being one of the oldest types of speculation, speculation on food provides farmers with a guaranteed sale price for their product months in advance. Without futures contracts speculation, farmers would have to assume ALL the price risk. And more of them would fail as a result of market fluctuations. As it stands, the futures markets allows for expansion of finance and insurance in the industry, which ultimately improves stability in the entire food supply chain.
- antonvs 4y agoThe issue is more whether the profits from an activity like that are reasonable. One could imagine taxing such profits at a much higher rate, just to pick a simple change that’s compatible with the current system.
- spaceman_2020 4y agoWhy does it feel that so many trends that were "emerging" are now all suddenly converging? I've gone through a lot of macro data and everything from climate change and fertilizers to food and automation and monetary policy seems to be breaking down at the same time. Is there a whitepill scenario for the remaining years in this decade?
- Paul-Craft 4y agoMany people, myself included, think we're headed for global societal collapse. Or, more to the point, things have deteriorated to the point where collapse has already started to happen and is now accelerating, which accounts for the convergence of trends you're seeing.
- SuoDuanDao 4y agoThis decade might be asking a lot. This century I like Schmachtenberger's take.
- spaceman_2020 4y agoI've never heard of Schmachtenberger but this is what chatGPT had to say about his take. Accurate? === Daniel Schmachtenberger is a philosopher, systems thinker, and futurist known for his work in global systems change and the development of a more resilient and sustainable civilization. His take on this century can be characterized by the following key points: Existential risks and global catastrophic risks: Schmachtenberger emphasizes that humanity faces a range of existential and global catastrophic risks, including nuclear war, pandemics, climate change, artificial intelligence, and others. He argues that we need to address these risks comprehensively and proactively to ensure a sustainable and thriving future. Game theory and rivalrous dynamics: Schmachtenberger highlights the importance of understanding game theory and the rivalrous dynamics that drive competition and conflict. He argues that many of our current challenges stem from win-lose dynamics that incentivize short-term thinking, self-interest, and resource depletion. Comprehensive sense-making: Schmachtenberger stresses the need for better sense-making and information processing to navigate the complex, interconnected challenges we face. He advocates for interdisciplinary approaches that can provide a more accurate and nuanced understanding of the world. Civilizational resilience: Schmachtenberger advocates for building a more resilient and adaptive civilization by fostering cooperation, developing better decision-making systems, and focusing on long-term, sustainable solutions. A vision for a sustainable and thriving civilization: Schmachtenberger envisions a future where humanity transcends its current challenges and embraces a more cooperative, sustainable, and equitable global society. This includes the development of regenerative economic systems, effective governance structures, and cultural shifts that prioritize collective well-being over individual gain.
- 11235813213455 4y agopotatoes grow super easily and are the food with highest satiety (so it's highly nutritious) https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7498104/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7498104/, so we could turn more to that
- badpun 4y ago> potatoes grow super easily True dat. My neighbor threw some potato peelings into her compost heap, and later used that compost to fertilize her roses. Lo and behold, she had potatoes growing between the roses a couple months later.